View Poll Results: Who wins the 2019 national title game

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  • Virginia

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  • Texas Tech

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Thread: OFFICIAL GAME THREAD: NCAA TOURNEY, NATIONAL TITLE GAME, MONDAY, APRIL 8

  1. #1
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    Default OFFICIAL GAME THREAD: NCAA TOURNEY, NATIONAL TITLE GAME, MONDAY, APRIL 8

    6:20pm PT from Minneapolis, MN on CBS

    (3) Texas Tech vs. (1) Virginia

    Which team wins? And why (if you choose to explain)

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    (1) Gonzaga vs (1) Virginia would have looked so much better.

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    I know nobody's following the analytics anymore, but the Zags are #2 on KenPom (#1 offense, #12 defense). TeamRankings have them at #1. Barttorvik has them at #1 as well (#1 offense, #9 defense, #1 overall).

    Too bad they ran into a bad matchup (or maybe a ref). The stats validate how strong the Zags were this year.

    I'd love to see an analysis of the frequency of fouls called as you get closer to the final four. I sat through the TTech/MSU game keying on Tech's defensive play. "Foul... Foul. That's a foul. Another foul. That's not vertical...it's a foul." Over and over. Three-fourths through the game and a bunch of Tech's players all equally have 3 fouls. I wonder what the statistical probability of that is. Yeah, anyone who knows about random chance knows it is infinitesimally small.

    Refs can and do change outcomes. Auburn could have easily been in the Final 2.

    As someone who loves the rigid numbers and statistical validity of same in basketball, I think unquestionably the biggest problem with (college) basketball is the SUBJECTIVITY of referee calls (or maybe the rules are objective, but not called in that fashion during the game). It absolutely drives me nuts. There has to be a better way. When Few went completely nuts on that ref, you know he had very good reason. That almost never happens during the rest of the season (or even in his career).

    Monday's outcome will be very interesting, and will very likely be dependent upon which zebras were selected for the game that makes the most money of the entire season. My prediction will be whistles swallowed. What that leads to, I'm not sure.

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    I'll add that on KenPom currently, Virginia is #1 and Texas Tech is #5 (Zags #2).

    Interestingly, Barttorvik (whose algorithms are basically KenPom before the weird changes he made a couple years ago) has:

    1. Zags .9745
    2. Virginia .9726
    3. TTech .9707

    I'm inclined to go with Bart's T-Rank over KenPom these days. Either way, the numbers suggest a very close game.

    I guess I'll root for the Raiders only because they faced (and beat) my favorite team, but honestly, the only next game that matters to me is the exhibition the Bulldogs play next fall. Yeah, beat Brewster Packing or whomever.

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    If TTU wins on Monday they will be the first school to win the championship in their first trip to the FF since UCONN in 99. Both beat Gonzaga in the West region championship game to get to the FF. I saw the part about TTU and UConn on ESPN last night but they didn’t make the GU connection.

    In 2017 GU should have been the first since 99 to win in their first FF trip. Dang it.

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    What is absolutely amazing is the jump in offensive efficiency that Texas Tech made within season. It has to be close to record breaking in the Pomeroy era. I'm telling you, in early January, there were jokes being made about the Red Raiders during podcasts and such because of how BAD their offense was......that they simply couldn't score. The defense was always great, but so many people didn't trust them because they had so many problems getting the ball in the basket outside of Culver. They were ranked in the high 90's and at times in the low 100's. And then is just got better, and better, and better. While some of that could possibly be attributed to the Big 12 not being as strong as it usually is, it's still a power league with some pretty good defensive teams in it (Kansas State = #3; Kansas = #17; OU = #23; Texas = #25). But Beard made some amazing in-season adjustments to their offense, and clearly brought confidence out of some of his players.

    BTW - Dixon is apparently out with UCLA. They couldn't get over the buyout thing. The LA Times is saying that Cronin is the next man in line, but what about Beard? Does he have a massive buyout at Tech? I doubt it. Then again, UCLA has humiliated itself so many times......does anyone of substance really wish to coach there? And BTW - how does AD Dan Guerrero still have a job. Not enough universities fail to understand that the source of their problems isn't their coaches, but the person who is hiring them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CDC84 View Post
    What is absolutely amazing is the jump in offensive efficiency that Texas Tech made within season. It has to be close to record breaking in the Pomeroy era. I'm telling you, in early January, there were jokes being made about the Red Raiders during podcasts and such because of how BAD their offense was......that they simply couldn't score. The defense was always great, but so many people didn't trust them because they had so many problems getting the ball in the basket outside of Culver. They were ranked in the high 90's and at times in the low 100's. And then is just got better, and better, and better. While some of that could possibly be attributed to the Big 12 not being as strong as it usually is, it's still a power league with some pretty good defensive teams in it (Kansas State = #3; Kansas = #17; OU = #23; Texas = #25). But Beard made some amazing in-season adjustments to their offense, and clearly brought confidence out of some of his players.

    BTW - Dixon is apparently out with UCLA. They couldn't get over the buyout thing. The LA Times is saying that Cronin is the next man in line, but what about Beard? Does he have a massive buyout at Tech? I doubt it. Then again, UCLA has humiliated itself so many times......does anyone of substance really wish to coach there? And BTW - how does AD Dan Guerrero still have a job. Not enough universities fail to understand that the source of their problems isn't their coaches, but the person who is hiring them.
    Beard is a fabulous coach but imo no way fits UCLA and their desires for a basketball team
    Basketball...The Toy Department of Life

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopaholic View Post
    Beard is a fabulous coach but imo no way fits UCLA and their desires for a basketball team
    winner?

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    Hoopaholics keys to the game and critical matchuips

    Culver vs Hunter who gets the better of this matchup will determine the championship IMO

    Secondarily: Mooney vs Clark will they isolate mooney to take advantage of post up play or will that get muddled with the Viriginia help defense...Can mooney find his shot over the top of the very short Clark
    TT loses Clark by weakside baseline double downs and VIrginia finds him and he can hit shots could be a difference maker

    Third: Owens and his mobility.key cog to the baseline force action on defense for TT

    Fourth: Can someone shut down Guy and Jeromes shooting

    Finally: Can Moretti find some and hit some open looks for TT
    Basketball...The Toy Department of Life

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopaholic View Post
    Beard is a fabulous coach but imo no way fits UCLA and their desires for a basketball team
    Why so? On the surface I would agree, but their next target, Mick Cronin, has teams that routinely play at a pace that ranks over 300 at kenpom.com. As discussed many times, pace of play is very important to UCLA fans and boosters. Cincy, like Texas Tech, plays a defense first, physical brand of ball. Both Beard and Cronin seem the have similar personalities. Mick might be a little more hot-headed.

    But Cronin has more experience, and I believe Cincy has made the tourney 8 years in a row (something around that - I think they rank 5th of all programs in consecutive tourney appearances). The other thing is that he has an outstanding and longstanding tradition of graduating players and avoiding scandal. Very important in the current climate, and especially after the Ball family nonsense. Plus, if Beard wins this title tonight, he might command, believe or not, more money. The situation at Cincy with Cronin is not good. They have not shown a long term commitment to him as their head coach. Despite their success, they seem indifferent to him as a head coach.

    At this point, I don't feel we can rule anything out when it comes to UCLA and their crazy basketball coaching search. Any AD who spent his whole season trying to lure Calipari to Westwood when every college basketball pundit on the planet could've told Guerrero that it was never going to happen (that Cal was using it as leverage as a business man) is liable to do anything.

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    Back to the original topic......I am going with Texas Tech. Part of it is self serving. It will lessen the pain of losing to them if they win it all. Also, when it comes to UVA, they have lucked out so many times in this tourney.....at some point they aren't going to be able to pull another one out of their collective rear ends. I like how Texas Tech has beaten three straight teams with defensive efficiencies in the 20's. They have shown that they can score enough to win against defenses as stout as UVA's (Michigan State = #9; Gonzaga = #12; Michigan = #2). UVA has not faced a defense this whole tourney that is nearly as tough as Tech's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CDC84 View Post
    Why so? On the surface I would agree, but their next target, Mick Cronin, has teams that routinely play at a pace that ranks over 300 at kenpom.com. As discussed many times, pace of play is very important to UCLA fans and boosters. Cincy, like Texas Tech, plays a defense first, physical brand of ball. Both Beard and Cronin seem the have just about the same personality. Mick might be a little more hot-headed.

    But Cronin has more experience, and I believe Cincy has made the tourney 8 years in a row. The other thing is that he has an outstanding and longstanding tradition of graduating players and avoiding scandal. Very important in the current climate, and especially after the Ball family nonsense. Plus, if Beard wins this title tonight, he might command, believe or not, more money. The situation at Cincy with Cronin is not good. They have not shown a long term commitment to him as their head coach. Despite their success, they seem indifferent to him as a head coach.

    At this point, I don't feel we can rule anything out when it comes to UCLA and their crazy basketball coaching search. Any AD who spent his whole season trying to lure Calipari to Westwood when every college basketball pundit on the planet could've told that idiot Guerrero that it was never going to happen (that Cal was using it as leverage as a business man) is liable to do anything.
    1. way to NEW in the coaching game, so his success could be construed as flash in pants and considering UCLA recent issues certain they would like to get long range plan in place
    2. What 4 or 5 star "name" recognized recruit has he landed...the client and customers of UCLA demand high profile players and is one of the reasons Alford was let go
    3. style of play, competing in Los Angeles the need for high flying, acrobatic, elite athleticism trumps team play, consistentency and team over individual....opposite of beards philosophy
    4. not sold Beards personality would last in Los Angeles.....very energetic, very demanding, attention to details, keeps outside influences eliminated or minimal

    but thats my view
    Basketball...The Toy Department of Life

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    Quote Originally Posted by caduceus View Post
    I know nobody's following the analytics anymore, but the Zags are #2 on KenPom (#1 offense, #12 defense). TeamRankings have them at #1. Barttorvik has them at #1 as well (#1 offense, #9 defense, #1 overall).

    Too bad they ran into a bad matchup (or maybe a ref). The stats validate how strong the Zags were this year.

    I'd love to see an analysis of the frequency of fouls called as you get closer to the final four. I sat through the TTech/MSU game keying on Tech's defensive play. "Foul... Foul. That's a foul. Another foul. That's not vertical...it's a foul." Over and over. Three-fourths through the game and a bunch of Tech's players all equally have 3 fouls. I wonder what the statistical probability of that is. Yeah, anyone who knows about random chance knows it is infinitesimally small.

    Refs can and do change outcomes. Auburn could have easily been in the Final 2.

    As someone who loves the rigid numbers and statistical validity of same in basketball, I think unquestionably the biggest problem with (college) basketball is the SUBJECTIVITY of referee calls (or maybe the rules are objective, but not called in that fashion during the game). It absolutely drives me nuts. There has to be a better way. When Few went completely nuts on that ref, you know he had very good reason. That almost never happens during the rest of the season (or even in his career).

    Monday's outcome will be very interesting, and will very likely be dependent upon which zebras were selected for the game that makes the most money of the entire season. My prediction will be whistles swallowed. What that leads to, I'm not sure.
    I mentioned it in another thread, but the Few argument with the ref was uncomfortable to watch. He was so close to the guy, yelling, eye-to-eye-- it reminded me of a boxing or MMA weigh-in. I've never seen that before.

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    USA Today opinion piece about this matchup not being the best basketball to watch due to the "hack-and-hold" style of defense:
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ll/3395124002/

    To be fair. Virginia was one of the least penalized teams in the college as far as personal fouls go going into the tournament. Bennett coaches his guys to play good positional defense without fouling (read: hacking, slapping, reaching). They pack it in the lane and close out very well on shooters. I have become somewhat of a Mooney fan, but will be rooting for Virginia. I like their brand of basketball better.

    For fun (or not...), go check out the MSU message boards. They had similar concerns about the way TT plays ball that some of us here did. Sigh...

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    I won't be watching. I am hoping for a scoreless tie after 24 overtimes, with the game called at 3 AM. Didn't read Wolken's whole story, but agree w/ his premise. Hate, hate, hate this kind of basketball. I wound up sort of instinctively rooting for Auburn in spite of Pearl, just because they're enjoyable to watch.

    Nova last year was a joy to watch as they ran thru the tourney. Hopefully this travesty of a title game leads to changes that open up the game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by maynard g krebs View Post
    I won't be watching. I am hoping for a scoreless tie after 24 overtimes, with the game called at 3 AM. Didn't read Wolken's whole story, but agree w/ his premise. Hate, hate, hate this kind of basketball. I wound up sort of instinctively rooting for Auburn in spite of Pearl, just because they're enjoyable to watch.

    Nova last year was a joy to watch as they ran thru the tourney. Hopefully this travesty of a title game leads to changes that open up the game.
    So much for the "freedom of movement" they gave lip service to at the beginning of the season. I like the idea of calling defensive 3 in the key, as was mentioned in the article, to open things up a bit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    I mentioned it in another thread, but the Few argument with the ref was uncomfortable to watch. He was so close to the guy, yelling, eye-to-eye-- it reminded me of a boxing or MMA weigh-in. I've never seen that before.
    Yeah, it wasn't Few's best "look" but I did love the fact that he really knew that the game was riding on the fact they could turn us over with impunity bc they just leveled us inside without fear of a whistle.

    In years past, I've been frustrated that Few was - in my hardly professional opinion - far too deferential to the refs, and as he's now become associated with the "Hall of Fame" types of coaches, he's earned the right to give them a piece of his mind as someone who never made their name on it, largely avoided it.

    Plus, every once in a while, it can propel a team out of a slump to just go poo-flinging monkey insane on the sidelines, get a technical protecting your guys, have your assistants carrying you back to the bench, coat flying into the stands, and suddenly the team feels like "Coach has our backs! We gotta have coach's back!"

    It's not right, it's immature, and I sure wouldn't want it to be a regular thing, but maybe once a year, might be a good thing, human psychology being what it is.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
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    We have 2 pools going in our office.

    One of our Department Heads has Virginia in one pool & Texas Tech in the other.

    She's walking around with a big grin on her face today.
    We didn't want the guy anyway.

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    I am hoping for a final score in the low 30s like 34-32 and an agonizingly slow game

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    TSN with their game analysis and pick. Like me, they are going with Texas Tech:

    http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-...e1iv9ry4qu06rm

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    Mariners are on at 5.

    There's a basketball game?
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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    Yeah, the Mariners got some #'s of their own goin' on.
    We didn't want the guy anyway.

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    I am pulling for Virginia. I want the story to be that the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed one year can battle back and win it all the next.

    Thrill of victory. Agony of defeat. Etc and so forth.


    I just think it will be cool for those kids to come back from that sort of dejection and win it all.

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    Tariq Owens has been Texas tech wizard at protecting the rim, blocking shots, & rebounding.

    He had 9, 7, & 4 blks vs GU. Had 2 key defensive stops vs Rui at the end of our game, and even flew over Clarke for some tough tip ins and rebs.

    Heard he is around 50% today and 'very sore'. Rolled his ankle vs MSU.

    Tech interior defense not nearly as intimidating or effective without him.

    If he is liimited, Virginia could take advantage.

    If he were fully healthy, I'd pick Tech no doubt.

    Tariq Owens was their MVP in numerous games this season, including vs us as Tech had ZERO answer inside without him.

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    I think Texas Tech is a bit overvalued due to this hot stretch they're on. Facts are Owens was in a boot all day and I can't imagine he's full strength tonight. Virginia thrives in games like these.

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