Next up comes another team that the Zags have a tournament history with — Texas Tech (29-6). The Zags haven't played the Raiders since 2007.
TTU is #5 in Pomeroy's rankings, which is the highest ranking for any of the three-seeds. I believe they were around #9 pre-tourney. They're ranked #1 in AdjDE and #31 in AdjOE. Currently, Gonzaga is ranked #1 offensively and #12 defensively. They play quite a bit slower pace (#235) than GU (#65), but not Virginia/Michigan slow.
I did a little happy dance last night when I looked at the Four Factors To Winning Basketball (Effective FG%, Offensive Rebound%, Turnover%, and FTA/FGA), because the Zags dominate in all four categories. Those categories are all pace-free statistics.
I wouldn't put much stock in the Avg. Score Margin, rebounds/game, etc. TTU is deceptively better than their per game numbers show, because of the slower pace they play, and because they're just freakingly good defensively. They have a higher rate of both steals and blocks than GU, and worryingly, their opponents average almost 40% of their shots from three (and only make 29% of them), and when their opponents do shoot the two, they make them only 42% of the time. That's REALLY good shooting defense.
But if the #1 offense in the country (by a large margin) can't beat this defense, then perhaps no one can. The good thing is that TTU is significantly offensively challenged compared to the Zags, whose defense is #6 nationally in the last 10 games. So, assuming these teams play to their averages, the Zags should win on overall offensive dominance paired with somewhat equivalent defenses.
Then again, it's the Tournament, so everyone will be playing for their lives.
Basic Stats / Four Factors
Efficiency Stats:
This graphic was shown last night on CBS:
GO ZAGS!!!
source: TeamRankings.com
TTU is #5 in Pomeroy's rankings, which is the highest ranking for any of the three-seeds. I believe they were around #9 pre-tourney. They're ranked #1 in AdjDE and #31 in AdjOE. Currently, Gonzaga is ranked #1 offensively and #12 defensively. They play quite a bit slower pace (#235) than GU (#65), but not Virginia/Michigan slow.
I did a little happy dance last night when I looked at the Four Factors To Winning Basketball (Effective FG%, Offensive Rebound%, Turnover%, and FTA/FGA), because the Zags dominate in all four categories. Those categories are all pace-free statistics.
I wouldn't put much stock in the Avg. Score Margin, rebounds/game, etc. TTU is deceptively better than their per game numbers show, because of the slower pace they play, and because they're just freakingly good defensively. They have a higher rate of both steals and blocks than GU, and worryingly, their opponents average almost 40% of their shots from three (and only make 29% of them), and when their opponents do shoot the two, they make them only 42% of the time. That's REALLY good shooting defense.
But if the #1 offense in the country (by a large margin) can't beat this defense, then perhaps no one can. The good thing is that TTU is significantly offensively challenged compared to the Zags, whose defense is #6 nationally in the last 10 games. So, assuming these teams play to their averages, the Zags should win on overall offensive dominance paired with somewhat equivalent defenses.
Then again, it's the Tournament, so everyone will be playing for their lives.
Basic Stats / Four Factors
Efficiency Stats:
This graphic was shown last night on CBS:
GO ZAGS!!!
source: TeamRankings.com
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