Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 70

Thread: (1) Zags vs. (4) Seminoles — Head to Head (Sweet 16 Rematch Edition)

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    5,007

    Default (1) Zags vs. (4) Seminoles — Head to Head (Sweet 16 Rematch Edition)

    In comes Florida State University, the team that the Chicken Littles around here seem to fear the most in our bracket. I don't think they should, but there are reasonable arguments both for and against, so I won't disparage either camp. Two notables in favor of the Chicken Little camp are 1) Burt Reynolds cleaned Bing Crosby's clock in the S16 as a low seed last year (albeit with ISSUES that contributed -- welcome back, Killian!), and 2) as of Thursday, FSU will be the only team to have played every one-seed this year. So they are unquestionably battle tested.

    The Seminoles sit around 14-16 on Pomeroy, with an AdjOE of #28 and an AdjDE of #10, numbers which are slightly improved since before the tournament started. As of right now, the Zags are #1 in OE and #17 in DE (and overall #2). Those ranking belie the fact that when you look at the actual efficiency numbers (not rankings), the Zags are only 1.6 points per 100 possessions worse than FSU on defense, while they are almost a dozen points per 100 possessions better on offense. So, basically even on D, but big discrepancy in offensive power.

    In looking at last year's head-to-head numbers, FSU appears to be a bit less capable offensively, but stronger defensively. They are as good as last year at rebounding the offensive glass, and getting to the FT line, where the numbers are almost identical to last year's. The fact that the Zags prepped for Baylor, another ORB proficient team, last week and did well against them might help the Zag's cause this week. FSU's tempo is #128, moderately slower than the Zag's pace (#70).

    Having played them last year, I think the coaching staff will have a better sense of what to expect compared to last year. With the new offensive weapons of this year's team (and having Tillie healthy this time), hopefully the Zags will get the W. FSU gets two of the four factors to winning basketball, so it's very likely to be competitive. All the predictive analytics favor the 1-seed by a high single-digit margin.


    Basic Stats / Four Factors




    Efficiency Stats



    source: TeamRankings.com



  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    12,805

    Default

    I wonder how we would look (data wise) if we simply separated the WCC games and the rpi 200 plus games. DO we look so good with the harder teams?

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    5,007

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    I wonder how we would look (data wise) if we simply separated the WCC games and the rpi 200 plus games. DO we look so good with the harder teams?
    Metrics. are. weighted. for. opponent. strength. They are time tested. KenPom has been doing it for almost two decades. The argument against the Zags in the WCC is always this, because people cannot wrap SOS weighted data around their head.

    Your answer is yes, unequivocally. I won't bother with doing any math because I already know the answer. Come on, my friend. You know about statistically weighted data.


    The top 14 teams -- every single one of them -- in Pomeroy's rankings (plus two more teams) this year ARE ALL IN THE SWEET 16.


    That's 86%. If that doesn't validate his rankings, I don't know what would.


    (Sorry to be so emphatic, Abe. It's not personal...just a peeve of mine after reading the inane, low intelligent posts on opponent's message boards).

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    North Side
    Posts
    5,979

    Default

    Fsu is a bad matchup for us. I dont think we cant win and if we do win we played damn good. If we win this i have us winning E8 game.

    This whole chicken little talk is lame. So if FSU wins and eliminates us, do the "chicken littles" get to mock the "gu wins every game" crowd? It sounds stupid cuz it is. This whole passive aggressive name calling is lame.
    Love the zags for life

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    5,007

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Zags11 View Post
    Fsu is a bad matchup for us. I dont think we cant win and if we do win we played damn good. If we win this i have us winning E8 game.

    This whole chicken little talk is lame. So if FSU wins and eliminates us, do the "chicken littles" get to mock the "gu wins every game" crowd? It sounds stupid cuz it is. This whole passive aggressive name calling is lame.
    Ugh. Most metrics give the Zags about an 80% chance of winning. That means 1 in 5 opportunities, FSU likely wins. Concern? Definitely. But the odds are in GU's favor. People making 30 posts that the sky is falling is a bit overdone. We will probably win. "Probably" doesn't mean we will. We just might lose. I made arguments both ways supporting those conclusions. I'm not name calling, just gently poking fun and adding some levity. Lighten up, Maynard.




  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    5,007

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Zags11 View Post
    I dont think we cant win
    That's the spirit!




    here come the 12 posts refuting, refuting, refuting...whoops!

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    5,007

    Default

    For the record, I didn't see the other thread mentioning reference to "Chicken Little". I did think of that all on my own (not that it takes much effort to identify the apparent palpable fear from the typical naysayers). "OMG! When you think it's ALIENS...it's... (wink, wink)." When you've seen that movie two dozen times with your kid, it doesn't take much effort to bring it up.

    (The best part is the faux Lion King intro, transitioning into church alarm bells). Someday, this movie will be deemed a veritable classic. Buck Cluck. Foxy Loxy. Goosey Loosey. Morkubine Porkupine!


    GO ZAGS!

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,616

    Default

    Based on those stats...it looks like they throw up more threes and rely on the trees inside to rebound and put back.

    While they DO have some big players, the main tree is still not much of a scorer, and we saw how well that strategy worked for Baylor.

    Thanks for this Caud. It reinforces my belief that the Zags will win.
    It's not funny.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    5,156

    Default

    Wait a minute—now I have to worry about FSU and aliens?!

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,616

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    Wait a minute—now I have to worry about FSU and aliens?!
    Elian Gonzales was in Florida before they sent him back to Cube.

    Maybe he has returned!
    It's not funny.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    On an island that is long
    Posts
    13,394

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by caduceus View Post
    For the record, I didn't see the other thread mentioning reference to "Chicken Little". I did think of that all on my own (not that it takes much effort to identify the apparent palpable fear from the typical naysayers). "OMG! When you think it's ALIENS...it's... (wink, wink)." When you've seen that movie two dozen times with your kid, it doesn't take much effort to bring it up.

    (The best part is the faux Lion King intro, transitioning into church alarm bells). Someday, this movie will be deemed a veritable classic. Buck Cluck. Foxy Loxy. Goosey Loosey. Morkubine Porkupine!


    GO ZAGS!
    For the record... really is a quite watchable movie as kid's movies go.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    7,330

    Default

    Well I don't believe in the Pope nor do I believe in Pomeroy.....both the AP and the Coaches Polls had about the same success identifying the Sweet Sixteen and the Net Rankings did almost as well.....the term Chicken Little is a pejorative…. a insult to those who have a opinion that Florida State will be a difficult team to beat and may win...... it wasn't necessary to a otherwise informative post.

    The odds makers have Gonzaga as a 7 point favorite …..I have more faith in them than the Pope or Pomeroy's adjusted numbers..

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    12,439

    Default

    The two most important facts to me are 1. assists, and 2. Turn overs. GU averages 18 assists per game and FSU only 13. This is important to me. When our Zags move the ball from side to side, and pass with precision, they are really really good. I know Few will stress this. Rui needs to get this into his head. He doesn't need to go one on one every time he touches the ball. He has a tendency to force shots lately. Hopefully, he will be aware of this.

    The other factor is turnovers. FSU turns it over more than we do.

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  14. #14

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bartruff1 View Post
    The odds makers have Gonzaga as a 7 point favorite …..I have more faith in them than the Pope or Pomeroy's adjusted numbers..
    I got no opinion on the Pope, but if you are a general fan of Vegas' handicapping, but remain skeptical of Pomeroy, you should check out this article from a couple years ago that details how KenPom's system completely transformed how Vegas sets their odds. For a few years, savvy bettors who used KenPom vs. the house had a distinct advantage. Naturally, Vegas tightened that up very quickly.

    http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...betting-market

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern Virginia
    Posts
    16,049

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Pleasant Peninsula View Post
    I got no opinion on the Pope, but if you are a general fan of Vegas' handicapping, but remain skeptical of Pomeroy, you should check out this article from a couple years ago that details how KenPom's system completely transformed how Vegas sets their odds. For a few years, savvy bettors who used KenPom vs. the house had a distinct advantage. Naturally, Vegas tightened that up very quickly.

    http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...betting-market
    You beat me to it. Vegas uses Pomeroy and other analytics sites to set their odds.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

    ________________________________



    Foo Time

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    On an island that is long
    Posts
    13,394

    Default

    I guess the one thing that saddens me is that now Zag fans are using the same arguments that P5 fans have used for years against GU. They don't have the height.. the athleticism... the size... etc.

    Here is a news flash... Zags are probably close to the same height, size, and athleticism as Duke. Duke beat this FSU team. Zags have beaten a full strength Duke without Tille.

    Take it for what it is worth.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    18,539

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I guess the one thing that saddens me is that now Zag fans are using the same arguments that P5 fans have used for years against GU. They don't have the height.. the athleticism... the size... etc.

    Here is a news flash... Zags are probably close to the same height, size, and athleticism as Duke. Duke beat this FSU team. Zags have beaten a full strength Duke without Tille.

    Take it for what it is worth.
    If you want to take it to another level, even, it isn't like the Zags came into the Duke game playing their greatest ball of the year, either.

    They came all too close to losing to Illinois, and then lost the first half to Arizona.

    Somehow, they put all that behind them to play their best game of the year.

    I don't think anyone's down on the Zags, it's just hoping that our A-Game shows up. If our A-game shows up, I doubt there are many here who doubt we'd win.

    I want to see some 3s fall. Haven't seen us really hot from 3 against a great opponent in a while.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    11,780

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I guess the one thing that saddens me is that now Zag fans are using the same arguments that P5 fans have used for years against GU. They don't have the height.. the athleticism... the size... etc.

    Here is a news flash... Zags are probably close to the same height, size, and athleticism as Duke. Duke beat this FSU team. Zags have beaten a full strength Duke without Tille.

    Take it for what it is worth.
    Isn't Duke smaller than Gonzaga? Considering Brandon Clarke and the fact that Gonzaga beat Duke, isn't Gonzaga at least on par athletically with Duke?

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    12,805

    Default

    About the same size if Tillie is included Former.
    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    Isn't Duke smaller than Gonzaga? Considering Brandon Clarke and the fact that Gonzaga beat Duke, isn't Gonzaga at least on par athletically with Duke?

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    On an island that is long
    Posts
    13,394

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    About the same size if Tillie is included Former.
    Was about to say the same thing.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    11,780

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Was about to say the same thing.
    Thanks LIZF and Abe!

  22. #22
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    North Side
    Posts
    5,979

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by caduceus View Post
    That's the spirit!




    here come the 12 posts refuting, refuting, refuting...whoops!
    I picked vs zags twice all yr. I havent been impressed by rui lately and he struggles vs teams like FSU. So ill say this this, if Rui shows up we win. If he doesnt? We lose. I dont zee another zag going off for 36.
    Love the zags for life

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    North Side
    Posts
    5,979

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DixieZag View Post
    If you want to take it to another level, even, it isn't like the Zags came into the Duke game playing their greatest ball of the year, either.

    They came all too close to losing to Illinois, and then lost the first half to Arizona.

    Somehow, they put all that behind them to play their best game of the year.

    I don't think anyone's down on the Zags, it's just hoping that our A-Game shows up. If our A-game shows up, I doubt there are many here who doubt we'd win.

    I want to see some 3s fall. Haven't seen us really hot from 3 against a great opponent in a while.
    This. If FSU and GU play their A games, zags win by 8 to 10.
    Love the zags for life

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    11,780

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Zags11 View Post
    I picked vs zags twice all yr. I havent been impressed by rui lately and he struggles vs teams like FSU. So ill say this this, if Rui shows up we win. If he doesnt? We lose. I dont zee another zag going off for 36.
    Last year vs. FSU, Rui was our leading scoring at 16, had 9 rebounds and 2 blocks. Just thought you'd like to know.

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    7,330

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    You beat me to it. Vegas uses Pomeroy and other analytics sites to set their odds.
    The key being "other".....Sure his data is useful but more precise than accurate....the raw data is just as predictive...I make a comfortable living using simple fundamentals to trade equities against algorithms that that are very complicated and precise and nearly always wrong because they cascade and create their own momentum ….

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •