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Thread: The Most Overrated Team of the last 10-15 years

  1. #1
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    Default The Most Overrated Team of the last 10-15 years

    This is finally the year that Kansas' 14yr streak of winning at least a share of the Big12 conference will end. It is definitely impressive that they won a power5 conference for 14 years straight. But I've been AMAZED to see how many extremely high seeds KU has gotten during that run. Maybe Big12 success doesn't translate into March because the Big12 just isn't close to the other power conferences in basketball.

    The last Big12 team to play for the title (other than Kansas) was actually from the conference's precursor the "Big8" in 1988! During Kansas 14yr streak there was just a one other Big12 team making a final4.

    If a good approximation of "overrated" or "overseeded" means winning fewer games than expected for teams with your seeds, then I think Kansas is the most overrated CBB team of the past 10 and even 15 years when it comes to the tournamnet. During their 14yr streak they've gotten a #1seed 8 years and made the final 4 (or beyond) 3 times. 5 of the 14 years has ended in the round of 32 losing to teams seeded 7, 9 , 10, 13, & 14.

    Kansas has received more 1seed and 2seed in the last 5 years than GU has had in history. They've been consistently good, and yet consistently treated by the committee like a basketball deity.

    • In the last 5 yrs KU has averaged a 1.4seed, and has won 12 games. In the last 5yrs GU has averaged a 5.2seed and has won 13 games.
    • In the last 9 yrs they've had 6x 1seed, and 3x 2seed. They've had 3 losses in the round of 32 to 7, 9, and 10 seeds.
    • In the last 12 years they've had 8x 1 seed, 3x 2seed, 1x 3 seed
    • In their 14 year streak they've had 8x 1seed, 3x 2 seed, 2x 3seed, and a single 4.


    Given KU's paltry results despite extremely strong seedings, and given the total failure of other Big12 teams in March for the past couple decades, I think Big12 in general and Kansas in particular is the most overrated conference+team in the country.

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    Indiana isn't in the Big 12, so I think you'd have to go further back. Perhaps Oklahoma, without looking it up?

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    Easy, it's Kentucky....meaning under-achieving with like 200 five star recruits.

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    They did win a national championship 10 or so years ago...

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Easy, it's Kentucky....meaning under-achieving with like 200 five star recruits.
    Especially under Crook-apari. Guy can't coach himself out of a box. Hell of a recruiter. NC in 2012 was in spite of him. That was all AD.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    Indiana isn't in the Big 12, so I think you'd have to go further back. Perhaps Oklahoma, without looking it up?
    Thanks - I looked it up and the most recent other team from that league was in 1988 when it was called the "Big8" - Oklahoma made the championship game. I edited the original post. Point still stands strongly. Since the modern creation of the Big12 (25 yrs ago) no team other than Kansas has made the final game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Easy, it's Kentucky....meaning under-achieving with like 200 five star recruits.
    The term "overrated" or "underrated" should beg the question:

    by whom?

    My definition is overrated by the NCAA projection/seeding committee voters. I don't care what caliber of high school players are coming to your team or not, I'm looking at the committee's seeding (expectations) relative to the outcomes of those seeds. Saying a team has generally underperformed with good players is a different conversation than saying a team has been overrated by the NCAA committee at the time when the regular seasons end and the playoffs are beginning.

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    What Kansas has accomplished over the last 15 years is nothing short of amazing. They routinely play and beat top teams from other power conferences in the OOC as well as dominate their own league.

    The Big 12 is more often than not rated as one of the top 3 conferences in the country. Starting with the 2004 season, the conference was ranked 3,5,7,2,3,1,3,3,5,1,1,1,2,1,1.

    Kansas has deserved every protected seed they have received. There are only a handful of teams that have made three Final Fours in that span.

    Have they been upset by higher seeds? Yep. That's what makes the tournament so special. What it doesn't mean is that Kansas hasn't earned their seeding every year.

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    The FBI recruiting investigation was disappointing because KU is one of the only power conference teams I route for (in part because my good buddy is a KU fan front Kansas). Coach Self is a likeable guy. Their fans, at least the ones I know, are good people. The landscape changed this year and it seems likely that KU’s dominance came at the price of their integrity— and end of their streak seems like poetic justice at this moment in time.

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    Kansas was decimated in 2019 for a variety of reasons.

    Their preseason rank was deserved based upon some of their high profile victories in pre conference play.
    From a historical perspective, thier consecutive conference championship streak surpassed Wooden’s UCLA. That speaks volumes to me, but probably doesn’t mean much to folks that were not around to witness those UCLA years.

    If legacy is based upon national titles, GU has some work to do.

    Having said that, I hope they are the four seed in the West.
    I miss Mike Hart

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    I constantly root against Kansas, but they have been pretty solid for a long while. I do love seeing them choke in March though!

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    I don't have issues with KU or their fans. UK... totally different story.

    KU fans are pretty level-headed and their fans are by and large good people. Self is a good coach, does things the right way. UK... their fans might be the worst fan base out there. Obnoxious, feel entitled, look down on everyone, regardless of how their team is doing. Honestly, they can be more obnoxious than Duke bandwagon fans. Cal is a shady guy with a shady past and can't coach for anything. Get so much pleasure watching them lose games.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I don't have issues with KU or their fans. UK... totally different story.

    KU fans are pretty level-headed and their fans are by and large good people. Self is a good coach, does things the right way. UK... their fans might be the worst fan base out there. Obnoxious, feel entitled, look down on everyone, regardless of how their team is doing. Honestly, they can be more obnoxious than Duke bandwagon fans. Cal is a shady guy with a shady past and can't coach for anything. Get so much pleasure watching them lose games.
    Self is a very good coach. Full stop.

    As for doing things the right way, don't kid yourself. He's right in the middle of money changing hands to get recruits. Self, Wade, Miller and others are who Few was talking about when he urged the NCAA to step it up so schools that cheated aren't beating teams that are doing it right in this year's tournament.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    What Kansas has accomplished over the last 15 years is nothing short of amazing. They routinely play and beat top teams from other power conferences in the OOC as well as dominate their own league.

    The Big 12 is more often than not rated as one of the top 3 conferences in the country. Starting with the 2004 season, the conference was ranked 3,5,7,2,3,1,3,3,5,1,1,1,2,1,1.

    Kansas has deserved every protected seed they have received. There are only a handful of teams that have made three Final Fours in that span.
    This is testable but not true. There are 10 teams to make 3+ final fours in that 14yr span (and until last year, Kansas had made 2 in their 13 in their streak despite 10x being a #1/#2 seed). KU has made their 3 final 4s with BY FAR the highest seeding of anyone:

    Villanova, MSU, UK, Duke, Louisville, Connecticut, Florida, UCLA, UNC, Kansas

    Villanova has also made 3 finals 4s in that span, with half as many 1 seeds.
    MSU has also made 3 final 4s in that span, with 1/8th as may 1 seeds.
    Kentucky has made 4 finals 4s (2 championships) with 1/4 as many 1 seeds
    UNC has made 5 final 4s, despite 1 fewer #1 seed
    Duke has made 3 finals 4s despite 2 fewer #1 seeds
    Louisville has also made 3 final 4s with 1/4th as many #1 seeds
    Connecticut has made 3 final 4s (4 if you add another year and make it a 15yr history) despite just 1/4 as many #1 seeds
    UCLA has made 3 final 4s with 1/8th as many #1 seeds.
    Florida has made 3 finals 4s with 1/4 as many #1 seeds.

    The more one looks at the seeding given (again, my stand-in for how a team is perceived or rated at the end of the regular season) VS their tournament results, the more disappointing and overrated Kansas is revealed to have been.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I don't have issues with KU or their fans. UK... totally different story.

    KU fans are pretty level-headed and their fans are by and large good people. Self is a good coach, does things the right way. UK... their fans might be the worst fan base out there. Obnoxious, feel entitled, look down on everyone, regardless of how their team is doing. Honestly, they can be more obnoxious than Duke bandwagon fans. Cal is a shady guy with a shady past and can't coach for anything. Get so much pleasure watching them lose games.
    Plenty of KU fans in the Metroplex, they're pretty cool.

    A year or so ago, my son was playing pick up games against adults at our local fitness center. In between games, he was working on his free throws. One of the players came up to me and asked it was ok if he gave him a few tips. This guy was clearly head and shoulders above everyone else that played. As an aside, he said he played for Kansas for 4 years, though he mostly rode the bench.

    Didn't get his name, but I thought that was pretty classy of him to ask me for permission. Reminded me of Corey spending time with Big D on the floor of the Kennel.

    Pressure to win at Kansas is huge, due to the history of the program. Too bad that Self probably took a few shortcuts.

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    Statistics are funny things.

    Kansas has made 3 Final Fours while being seeded 1 or 2 eleven times according to your numbers. A 27.3% success rate.

    Gonzaga has made one Final Four while being seeded 1 or 2 four times in the same span. A 25% success rate.

    Did the Zags not deserve those seeds?

    If the Zags fail to make the Final Four this year will they be considered overrated in your mind?

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    I'm actually trying to grasp the point of denigrating Kansas success.

    2 Sweet Sixteens

    5 Elite Eights

    3 Final Fours

    2 National Championships

    All in the last fifteen years.

    Seems pretty dang good to me.

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    I can tell you this....Kansas fans are very, very, very proud of winning that many consecutive league titles. A college basketball analyst once asked a group of KU boosters and season ticket holders how important that regular season accomplishment is to them. They applauded with huge enthusiasm.

    If Kentucky had accomplished the same thing in the SEC, I honestly do not feel their fans would've applauded with the same level of enthusiasm as the Jayhawk faithful. UK folks only care about NCAA tournament success and hanging banners. I think Kansas has some of the purest basketball fans in the nation. They just love the game in its purest sense.

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    A well researched OP, yet reaching...Kansas is a blue blood in my opinion.

    They have had a rough go this season, losing ONE of the most imposing players in college hoops to injury, and one of the best 3pt shooter, & their 2nd leading scorer to "personal issues" as well. Not to mention, their best recruit and likely one & done was ruled ineligible.

    That said, they will still be a Top 4 seed in the Tourney.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Statistics are funny things.

    Kansas has made 3 Final Fours while being seeded 1 or 2 eleven times according to your numbers. A 27.3% success rate.

    Gonzaga has made one Final Four while being seeded 1 or 2 four times in the same span. A 25% success rate.

    Did the Zags not deserve those seeds?

    If the Zags fail to make the Final Four this year will they be considered overrated in your mind?

    You've got a couple errors here caused by collapsing 1 seeds and 2 seeds into the same category of likely success.

    1 seeds are exactly twice as likely as 2 seeds to make a final4. (41.2% of 1 seeds, compared with 20.6% of 2 seeds).

    In their 8 separate 1-seed years under Bill Self and during "the streak" they are 2-8 in making the final 4. That's 25% in a pretty big sample size. 1 seeds in generally make it to the FF 41.2% of the time.





    So Gonzaga going 1-for-2 in a very small sample size of 2 isn't bad at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    You've got a couple errors here caused by collapsing 1 seeds and 2 seeds into the same category of likely success.

    1 seeds are exactly twice as likely as 2 seeds to make a final4. (41.2% of 1 seeds, compared with 20.6% of 2 seeds).

    In their 8 separate 1-seed years under Bill Self and during "the streak" they are 2-8 in making the final 4. That's 25% in a pretty big sample size. 1 seeds in generally make it to the FF 41.2% of the time.





    So Gonzaga going 1-for-2 in a very small sample size of 2, isn't bad at all.
    So Kansas missed it by failing to win an Elite Eight game one time in those years. In other words, they would have had a 37.5% success rate which is about what one seeds overall success rate is if they had just made a couple more free throws.

    Again, I don't see the point in trying to belittle Kansas.

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    I dunno about you guys, but everytime I think "what team takes the best talent and it dies on the vine at this team" I think of everything Romar did in Washington. I think if you track "who gets the best talent and does nothing with it" they win IMO. Maybe that's not exactly the OP's question, I dunno.
    Krozman
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    Quote Originally Posted by krozman View Post
    I dunno about you guys, but everytime I think "what team takes the best talent and it dies on the vine at this team" I think of everything Romar did in Washington. I think if you track "who gets the best talent and does nothing with it" they win IMO. Maybe that's not exactly the OP's question, I dunno.
    I agree with you there.

    As for the OP’s question, not sure about overrated. But, they have certainly under-performed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by raise the zag View Post
    A well researched OP, yet reaching...Kansas is a blue blood in my opinion.

    They have had a rough go this season, losing ONE of the most imposing players in college hoops to injury, and one of the best 3pt shooter, & their 2nd leading scorer to "personal issues" as well. Not to mention, their best recruit and likely one & done was ruled ineligible.

    That said, they will still be a Top 4 seed in the Tourney.
    I'm not saying they aren't a blue blood, but that's a vague and undefined term so what's the point in arguing it. The only thing I'm "saying" other than posting data about their incredible streak of high seeds is a conclusion that despite winning the Big12 Kansas has been overrated by the NCAA seeding committee, and their results in the tournament bear this out in terms of total tournament wins (fewer than expected based on their seed history) and based on deep runs as well. Winning the Big12 has granted them an undeserved "halo" in the eyes of the committee.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    What Kansas has accomplished over the last 15 years is nothing short of amazing. They routinely play and beat top teams from other power conferences in the OOC as well as dominate their own league.

    The Big 12 is more often than not rated as one of the top 3 conferences in the country. Starting with the 2004 season, the conference was ranked 3,5,7,2,3,1,3,3,5,1,1,1,2,1,1.

    Kansas has deserved every protected seed they have received. There are only a handful of teams that have made three Final Fours in that span.

    Have they been upset by higher seeds? Yep. That's what makes the tournament so special. What it doesn't mean is that Kansas hasn't earned their seeding every year.
    This is the correct answer. Kansas has been amazing during this stretch and it just hasn't fully translated in March. Who the heck are we to throw shade on them for that?

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