Saint Mary's Deserves an At-Large Bid

[CB4]

According to Joe Lunardi as of March 6, 2019 has them listed as first four out. They had a good year and deserve a bid.

LAST FOUR BYES (KenPom/Win-Loss)
Ole Miss (44/19-11)
Minnesota (45/19-11)
St. John's (67/20-10)
Arizona State (64/20-9)

LAST FOUR IN (KenPom/Win-Loss)
Alabama (57/17-13)
Seton Hall (62/16-12)
Temple (75/21-8)
TCU (49/18-12)

FIRST FOUR OUT (KenPom/Win-Loss)
Clemson (30/17-12)
Saint Mary's (36/20-11)
Furman (52/24-6)
Murray State (54/25-4)

[former1dog]

I'm not sure how to react other than to say, I think you're misreading Joe's chart. First four OUT doesn't mean they are getting an invite, it means he thinks they will be left OUT. In other words, if he had put them IN, then you would be justified in making the statement that Joe Lunardi thinks they deserve an at large bid.

[SorenTodd45]

I agree; they do deserve a bid. But if UW and ASU are in the P12 tourney final, I think they both get in. And the at-large team will knock the Gaels out. No way does the committee pick a WCC team over a P12 team. And what about Utah State? If they get the autobid and NV gets the at-large, that really hurts the Gaels.

[CB4]

I'm not sure how to react other than to say, I think you're misreading Joe's chart. First four OUT doesn't mean they are getting an invite, it means he thinks they will be left OUT. In other words, if he had put them IN, then you would be justified in making the statement that Joe Lunardi thinks they deserve an at large bid.

Yeah my post was confusing. I fixed it I think.

[former1dog]

Yeah my post was confusing. I fixed it I think.

Ok, sorry. I see now that you were disagreeing with Joe.

I tend to agree with him.

[gonzagafan62]

They didn’t get in with a 28-5 record last year.

This year they still lost to every meaningful opponent (Mississippi State, LSU, Utah State, Gonzaga)

And you think if they got 12 losses (cuz they’d have to lose again to get at large) that they should get IN? Don’t buy it for a sec. they deserve a bid if they win Tuesday. Nothing short of that. If they woulda had their season they did last year THIS YEAR... they get in easily. This time? They shouldn’t be anywhere near the tournament

[jazzdelmar]

Smell test? Fail.

[ZagOD7540]

No way...send them to the NIT or CBI

[Markburn1]

Has there ever been a team that lost a game by 48 points receive an at large bid?

[gonzagafan62]

I agree; they do deserve a bid. But if UW and ASU are in the P12 tourney final, I think they both get in. And the at-large team will knock the Gaels out. No way does the committee pick a WCC team over a P12 team. And what about Utah State? If they get the autobid and NV gets the at-large, that really hurts the Gaels.

Utah state is already in regardless

[CB4]

But but but KenPom!

[gonzagafan62]

But but but KenPom!

Every system has its outliers. And SMC is definitely one of those

[jpn17]

Lunardi having SMC out doesn't mean he thinks they don't deserve it. We don't know his personal opinion. Lunardi's bracket only mirrors what the selection committee will do and nothing else. And he's very good at predicting who the committee will select and who they won't. If the committee didn't select SMC for an at large in 2016 or 2018, then I don't see them getting an at large this year either. And Lunardi knows that.

[ZagnetitForce]

Zero quality wins and a couple bad losses......I think out. For conference would be happy to ssh another in at some point, but not that team not this year.

[SorenTodd45]

No way...send them to the NIT or CBI

The CBI? You are joking, right? They are right on the Big Dance cut line. Even if they lose on Monday they are still headed to the NIT. Probably host a game as well.

[Zagceo]

No way...send them to the NIT or CBI

94-46 humiliated in the kennel....lucky if they get NIT

[gonzagafan62]

I just don’t get at all how anyone looks at SMC and sees quality basketball. I got the reasoning the other 5 times they got left out. Not this one. They aren’t that good this season. I don’t see it

[katman50]

All I can say, I hope that St Marys makes the Dance, but not at the expense of the Zags. Would like to see them dancing. I realize their body of work is dubious, but still, would like to see them get in. The more WCC represented the merrier.

[JPtheBeasta]

SMC’s NET ranking is higher than several of the teams on the “In” list. Maybe he’s projecting a loss and a huge drop but as it stands now I think they should be in.

They are a good team that needs more experience but could win a game in the tournament.

[Zagsker]

They didn’t get in with a 28-5 record last year.

This year they still lost to every meaningful opponent (Mississippi State, LSU, Utah State, Gonzaga)

And you think if they got 12 losses (cuz they’d have to lose again to get at large) that they should get IN? Don’t buy it for a sec. they deserve a bid if they win Tuesday. Nothing short of that. If they woulda had their season they did last year THIS YEAR... they get in easily. This time? They shouldn’t be anywhere near the tournament

Exactly

[willandi]

No matter how they play, or the 'eye test', doesn't KenPom adjust for strength of opponent etc?

So if they are at 35, they played a tougher schedule than a P 6 at 57, 64 or 67.

[MickMick]

In any other year, with their current body of work, I might disagree that the Gaels belong, but it is hard to make a stronger case for some of the other teams on this historically weak bubble. The bottom of the field is kinda weak.

The Gaels NET score is pretty good and the computers like their offensive efficiency.

[23dpg]

I would love to see the Gaels in the tourney but sans the WCC title, it looks less promising than Lunardi’s bracket.

If they lose to the Zags in the title game, it’s just one more loss. Additionally, they will move down the list due to tourney bid stealers. If Illinois, or San Diego State per se, win their conference tourney, it just bumps those teams down. St. Mary’s needs to be a bid stealer themselves. Maybe if they play a great game and lose an OT game to Gonzaga and there are very few upsets around the country...maybe they get in. Looks doubtful.

[willandi]

I would love to see the Gaels in the tourney but sans the WCC title, it looks less promising than Lunardi’s bracket.

If they lose to the Zags in the title game, it’s just one more loss. Additionally, they will move down the list due to tourney bid stealers. If Illinois, or San Diego State per se, win their conference tourney, it just bumps those teams down. St. Mary’s needs to be a bid stealer themselves. Maybe if they play a great game and lose an OT game to Gonzaga and there are very few upsets around the country...maybe they get in. Looks doubtful.

I don't expect them to get in

The NCAA needs to eliminate teams that can't finish .500 or better in conference.

[Hoopaholic]

Nope