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Thread: Big Day Tomorrow - Where are we Ranked and where are we Seeded - Monday - 3/4/2019

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    Default Big Day Tomorrow - Where are we Ranked and where are we Seeded - Monday - 3/4/2019

    Big day tomorrow, Monday, 3/4/2019 as the NCAA tournament selection committee releases its last pre-selection Monday seedings. In most cases, a loss in the conference tournament is insufficient to drop you a seeding line, but an early loss in a conference tournament could drop you from say a #4-4-seed to a#1/#2 5-seed.

    Assuming the Lady Zags are named a #4 seed tomorrow, if they win the WCC tournament, they will most likely remain a #4 seed. If they are given a #5 seed, they still need to win the WCC tournament, hope for an early loss by one or more of the 4-seeds in their conference tournaments and a whole bunch of prayer if we are to have any chance of moving up to a 4-seed and host the first and second rounds of the NCAA tournament.

    So my fellow posters, where are we going to be ranked by the AP pundits?

    Where is the NCAA selection committee going to seed the lady zags tomorrow?

    What say you??

    ZagDad

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    AP Poll = 15
    Seed = 4

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    I don't study this stuff but we do know that there were teams above us who have lost this past week plus others who barely won......

    absolute sham if a 5 or 6 or 7 loss team remains above us in rankings, seedings.....

    I want the two games at the kennel.....I cheered hard this year, donated, watched and rewatched games and even played the Zag song on my phone....

    I deserve two games at the kennel.....lol

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    I am going with my heart instead of my head.

    In the AP Poll, I would say we would move up 3 spots but the East coast pundits will elevate Syracuse over us so a net gain of 2 spots for a spot of #14.

    I am guessing Charlie Crème will move us down to a 5 seed and jump us with Texas A&M due to their victory over #11 Kentucky. Gonzaga has checked all the boxes a mid-major needs to check to have the opportunity to host. A great overall record (27-3), a great RPI rating (#13), schedule P-5 teams and beat them (3-1 record with a victory over a top-10 team), a history of great attendance. I am hoping the NCAA committee wants to reward a mid-major for doing exactly what they have asked and will reward Gonzaga with a 4 seed.

    Head says 5 seed, heart says 4 seed. All is not lost if we do get a 5 seed. If GU wins the WCC tourney and Marquette does not win the Big East, we could move up. If the other 4-seeds lose earlier in their tournaments, we could move up.

    All we can do is win the WCC tourney and see what happens.

    Go Zags,

    ZagDad

  5. #5

    Default Correct-- ZagDad84

    "I am guessing Charlie Crème will move us down to a 5 seed and jump us with Texas A&M due to their victory over #11 Kentucky. "


    In Charlie Creme's latest post he gave the Lady Zags a #5 seed and moved them to College Station. Hopefully the NCAA will keep us as a #4 seed.
    They are ranked #14 in the AP poll up 2 spots.

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    if we get booted to a 5 seed and lose our two Kennel games, then all know what a total sham it is.....

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    FYI, Jim Allen of the Spokesman-Review asked Charlie Crème, on twitter, what was his rational for dropping the Zags to a 5 seed.

    Mr Creme's detailed response - "A&M passed the Zags"

    No kidding Mr. Obvious. How about providing some kind of justification for having A&M passing Gonzaga.

    Jeez,

    ZagDad

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    For those who are interested, NCAA seeding release is going to occur at halftime of the UConn-USF game on ESPN2 (approx. 5:00 PM).

    ZagDad

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    Bummer.

    Gotta hope A&M or other teams just above GU lose.
    The Kennel: "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy."

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    While I hate to use the word conspiracy, I think that is exactly what is happening.

    Only two (2) teams dropped out of the original Top-16 and they just happen to be the only two (not including UConn) non P-5 teams in the Top-16, Marquette and Gonzaga.

    In fact, the ACC has a total of five (yep 5) teams in the Top-16. Had to justify to me how five teams in any one conference deserve to host.

    According to Charlie Crème, he thinks that Iowa State and Miami are locks to host. He thinks that Syracuse is the most vulnerable to dropping out of the 4-seed.

    So Zag fans, that means we have to root against Syracuse and Texas A&M and hope the Committee removes their head from their nether regions.

    On to Vegas.

    Go Zags,

    ZagDad

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    For those who missed it, here is the current Top-16 seeds for the tournament.

    Top-16 Link: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-top-16-reveal

    Assuming we are still a 5 seed, it looks like we would have to travel to Syracuse and if we win round one, play the host Syracuse for a chance to come back to Portland.

    ZagDad

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    I can not describe how totally pissed I am right now......it was not a fun ride home from work with my ranting....

    and yet, we're all supposed to rush out and support the womens ncaa next year in Spokane...

    all the things the Zags had to do they did.....for that they get a big stinking poke in the eye....

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    From the Spokesman-Review:

    No. 14 Zags women could be here or there come NCAA Tournament time
    UPDATED: Mon., March 4, 2019, 9:23 p.m.

    By Jim Allen
    jima@spokesman.com
    (509) 459-5437

    Will they stay or will they go?

    Gonzaga women’s basketball fans will be asking that question for two more weeks, even if the Zags manage to win another West Coast Conference Tournament title.
    With two weeks to go, they sit uneasily on an ever-shifting bubble – a fact underscored Monday night with the latest NCAA reveal.

    In the second and final reveal before Selection Monday on March 18, the Zags were nowhere to be found in the top 16. They were leapfrogged by Texas A&M – an upset winner over 11th-ranked Kentucky – and Syracuse, which won at No. 22 Florida State. The other team to fall out was Marquette, which means that all 16 teams hail from Power-6 conferences.

    The stakes are high: the top 16 teams on Selection Day will host first- and second-round NCAA games; everyone else must travel.

    However, there’s plenty of basketball to be played. At 27-3 overall and 13th in the Rating Percentage Index, or RPI, the Zags still have a solid chance of landing a 4 seed or better and playing again in Spokane. For that to happen, GU will need to win twice in next week’s WCC tournament and hope the right teams lose in their respective conference tournaments.

    Those teams include No. 3 seeds North Carolina State, Maryland, Oregon State and South Carolina; and No. 4 seeds Miami, Iowa State, Syracuse and Texas A&M.
    The rise of the Aggies was predicted earlier by ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme, who dropped GU to the 5 line despite the Zags sweeping home games against Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount.

    Why?

    The short answer, and the only one Creme gave The Spokesman-Review via Twitter, was “A&M passed Gonzaga.”

    The news wasn’t all bad for GU fans. The Zags moved up two spots, to 14th, in the Associated Press poll.

    At RealTimeRPI.com, the Zags are the No. 4 seed in the Portland Regional, hosting No. 13 Florida Gulf Coast in a foursome that also includes No. 5 Kentucky and No. 12 Miami of Ohio.

    That raises another question: Would the NCAA really ship three teams to Spokane from the Eastern time zone?

    At College Sports Madness, bracketologists sent the Zags to Milwaukee as a No. 5 seed to face Ivy League champ Penn. The group also includes host and No. 4 seed Marquette facing No. 13 Green Bay.
    Article Link: http://www.spokesman.com/stories/201...e-ncaa-tourna/

    A couple of corrections to Mr. Allen's article. First, all Top-16 seeds (outside of UConn) are from the Power (5) (not P-6 as Marquette was dropped) conferences, including five (5) from the ACC.

    It is totally unrealistic to think that a team currently on the 3-seed line would drop to a 5-seed by a single loss in their conference tournament. The best the lady zags can hope for is for one of the current 4-seed teams to lose early in their conference tournament and GU wins the WCC Tournament. According to Charlie Crème, Miami and Iowa State are essentially guaranteed at least a 4-seed no matter how they fair in their tournaments. That leaves Texas A&M and Syracuse. Crème said that Syracuse is the most vulnerable to dropping.

    ZagDad

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    If the Zags don’t win in Vegas, this is a moot point. Just win baby....

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    Gonzaga ranked #12 (Zags moves up 2 places from last week):


    USA Today/Coaches Poll - Week 18


    ESPN Women's College Basketball Rankings - Week 18 Link

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    if charlie creme....and really, who the heck is he other than a guy with an opinion, but somehow he's got this following.....if he says that Iowa and Miami are guaranteed a 4 seed no matter what, then it pretty much puts to bed the notion that the first two games will be "played in a non predetermined" location, because in actuality, "they" already know who they want in and who they want where.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by sylean View Post
    if charlie creme....and really, who the heck is he other than a guy with an opinion, but somehow he's got this following.....if he says that Iowa and Miami are guaranteed a 4 seed no matter what, then it pretty much puts to bed the notion that the first two games will be "played in a non predetermined" location, because in actuality, "they" already know who they want in and who they want where.....
    Charlie Crème has been doing the bracketology for Wbb for as long as it has been around (15+ years or so). Much like Joe Lunardi on the Mbb side, Charlie has been relatively successful at correctly predicting the NCAA tournament field. He has been somewhat less successful at accurately predicting the seeding.

    What Mr. Crème is saying concerning Iowa State and Miami, is that their current resume' is sufficient enough that even a first round loss in their conference tournament would not detract enough from their current resume enough to permit a 5-seed to overtake them at this point, no matter if the 5 seeds won their conference tournament. This makes sense because Gonzaga and Marquette were assumed to be the #15 and #16 overall seeds last week putting Miami and Iowa State at the #13 & #14 seeds. Texas A&M and Syracuse replaced Gonzaga and Marquette but did not jump Miami and Iowa State.

    The end result is that if GU is to host, their only real options are to jump either Syracuse or Texas A&M by winning the WCC tournament and having Syracuse or Texas A&M lose early in their tournament. Just keep in mind that if Syracuse or Texas A&M lose to a current #5 seed, this would give that #5 seed another top-25 (quality) win and they could also jump Gonzaga and replace either Syracuse or Texas A&M. So not only do Syracuse or Texas A&M need to lose, they need to lose to the right teams.

    What is not known is what, if any, value given to the conference tournament champions. The Top-16 release has already accounted for conference championships but will the committee give a team any significant credit for wining their conference tournament? Nobody knows but the committee.

    As Kyle Dixon said above, the Lady Zags have to win the WCC tournament and hope for some help.

    Two weeks from today, we will have our answer.

    ZagDad

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    I know who CC is and have followed him.....what we have today are CC's braketology, almost from the first month of play, and we have the AP rankings and the RPI and the USA/coaches poll but when it comes right down to it, does any of it matter one iota if the "committee" selects seeding based on some unknown formula or bias.....

    because it shouldn't be that teams with 7 losses host two home games no matter what metric is used....

    you asked it yourself.....how and why did TexasAM move ahead of the zags?...why SC or Miami.....

    Syracuse?

    until someone has a concrete method of picking the seeding then its just based on preformed conclusions and that is not right......

    we've all seen how a team can lose, infact get slaughtered, and move up the next day in the polls....

    if that passes for a competent system of ranking teams, I suspect picking the seeding is just as superficial and insane....

    so lets just win in Vegas....we know the team will play somewhere.....but their chances are far better if they could dip their toes in the water in the friendly confines of the Kennel...

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    Sylean,

    While their is a method to their madness, the committee wants to remain somewhat in secrecy. It helps if you keep in mind that it is in the Committee's best interest and the P-5 conferences best interest to put as many P-5 teams as possible into the tournament. More teams = more money = more exposure for the NCAA. Unfortunately, it comes at the expense of the mid-majors.

    In looking at your post, first thing is to throw out anything to do with the polls. Poll numbers are not used in any way by the committee. It does not matter that GU is ranked ahead of numerous teams in the Top-16 because the NCAA committee never uses any part of the polls.

    You keep mentioning losses. The NCAA committee puts very little stock in any loss, let alone a loss to a top 25 team. They don't even use margin of loss (or victory) unless it is used as a tie breaker. The fact that GU lost to ND by 17 and Syracuse lost to ND at home by 30, means little to the committee.

    The factors which do have some merit with the NCAA committee; RPI, Strength of Schedule, Top-10, Top-25 and Top-50 WINS. The RPI numbers are published and known.

    Strength of Schedule numbers are also known if you know where to look. In general, a P-5 team will almost always have a much better SOS number than a mid-major because they are not playing 5-7 teams (10-14 games) with RPIs lower than 200 twice a year. The mid-major simply cannot schedule enough difficulty (unless you are UConn) in their OOC schedule to offset their conference games.

    Because the P-5 conferences have so many ranked teams, they have a lot more opportunity for Top-25 wins. Gonzaga is only 1-1 against Top-25 opponents (Rutgers and BYU were not ranked when we played). Syracuse is 3-5 against Top-25 while Texas A&M is 3-3. Thus both Syracuse and Texas A&M have 3 times as many wins against the Top-25 as does Gonzaga. Losses to Top-25 teams have only minimal effect on the overall evaluation.

    Both Texas A&M and Syracuse jumped Marquette and GU by both beating a Top-25 team (Syracuse beat #22 Florida State, Texas A&M beat #11 Kentucky) last week. GU won both their games but the teams they beat where not ranked in the Top-25, thus they did not add much to their resume. Thus, Gonzaga did not "drop" as much as Syracuse and Texas A&M improved their resumes in the last week. That is why it is going to be difficult to jump back into the Top-16 because the Zags do not have any more chances to add a Top-25 win to their resume (a top-30 maybe if we can beat BYU). A loss to a top-25 ranked team will unlikely be enough to drop either Syracuse or Texas A&M. What would be required would be a loss to an unranked team (probably can only occur in the first round after that they will only play ranked teams) which still might not be enough.

    Fair, heck no. Is the deck stacked against the mid-majors, most definitely. The lady zags knew they had to run the table, in conference, if they wanted to host and they lost to BYU not once but twice. It is very lucky the lady zags were under consideration after their first loss to BYU, but after dropping the home game, which they knew they had to have, they can't really blame anyone but themselves. Their destiny was in their hands, but after the loss, their fate is in the hands of the committee and some ACC and SEC teams.

    Just found out that Texas A&M's (all everything) starting point guard (Chennedy Carter) is out for the conference tournament but hopes to be back for NCAA tournament. An injury that is not proven to be healthy by the end of the conference tournament could negatively impact the NCAA seedings as Texas A&M is not the same without Carter as they are with Carter (like Duke with and without Zion Williamson).

    Keep the fingers crossed. Syracuse plays on Thursday (ACC tournament, 2nd round) and Texas A&M plays on Friday (SEC tournament, 2nd round).

    ZagDad

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    I think that when we win in Vegas, we could still host, if we lose no chance.
    Graves's Oregon team moved down. If I was placing teams I would factor in big time that Ruthy H was injured, if it looks like she will play down the stretch Oregon deserves to skill be a #1.
    Multi winning years like the men's team has done would give more creditability to the women's program.

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    I don't follow the women's seeding process all that closely but have gotten the impression that one important factor is $$; how many butts can a team put in the seats for the 1st 2 rounds? Have to believe that that jumps the Lady Zags over a few of these teams, based upon "normal" attendance data.
    This post is for March Madness seeding purposes only.

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    actually the women have had multiple winning seasons in a row......

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    ZAGDAD: here are the WCC numbers: (first number for RPI and Second for SOS) I don't know how to make a table so you will have to bear with me;

    Gonzaga 13 (65)
    BYU 33 (91)
    SMC 52 (62)
    Pacific 91 (97)
    LMU 102 (73)
    Pepper 105 (180)
    Santa Clara 163 (100)
    Portland 172 (107)
    S.F. 252 (96)
    San Diego 268 (142)

    So the league is stronger than most people think. No excuses for OOC schedules of Pepperdine nor San Diego.... they have two of the premier places to visit...scheduling should not be a problem there!

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    Syracuse won....

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    Syracuse beat Miami today. That's probably really bad news. Don't know that it will knock Miami out of hosting but most likely guarantees Syracuse will.

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