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Thread: Committee Top-16 Selections

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    Default Committee Top-16 Selections

    The committee will release their Top-16 selections today at halftime of the UConn-South Carolina game (somewhere around 5:00 PM). There is only one (1) more NCAA committee reveal this year before the final selection and that is on March 4, 2019.

    The difference between the Mbb and the Wbb is that in the Wbb NCAA tournament, the Top-16 teams get to host at their home arena the first and second round games. Thus, a very big advantage to the teams that are seeded in the Top-16 in the Wbb tournament, much more so than in the Mbb tournament.

    Charlie Crème (ESPN's Wbb Bracketologist) has moved the Lady Zags up to a #4 seed in the West region after taking in all of yesterday's games. Interesting that he did not drop Stanford after their pasting by Oregon (they are still a #2 seed) and Florida State who got manhandled by Notre Dame yesterday (beat by 27 points) actually moved up to a #5 seed from a #6 seed. Florida State is interesting in that Creme's bracket shows Florida State moving up a spot, but in his text (second link) he says they moved down a spot??? FSU was a 6th seed last week and is a 5th seed this week, so he has me confused.

    If you read the Creme's article, you will see it is important how the committee views various teams and will make it clear what they need to do to host. In Gonzaga's case, it is win out and hope you get some help.

    Charlie Creme's current bracket and seeding link: http://www.espn.com/womens-college-b...l/bracketology

    NCAA Selection Committee Discussion Article link: http://www.espn.com/womens-college-b...logy-questions

    Until the committee release Zag Fans,

    ZagDad

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    Although is nice to be where we are at in the AP poll tonights reveal of the top 16 is what matters the most. Glad to see ESPN move us back to a 4 seed. Gives me little hope that the selection committee will do the same

    Big week coming up but you cant look past San Diego. One game at a time. Its been a fun year following the girls.

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    Unfortunately for the Zags by far their 2 best wins have gotten devalued the last several weeks. Can't help them in anyway when it comes to seeding.

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    sometimes I think that nothing matters at all except what the "committee" wants as their narrative......rpi,sos, polls, wins, loses......it still comes down to what they want and they'll reward the "name" teams first and foremost, the heck with anything else...

    they better be wanting the Zags who have done EVERYTHING to enlarge their credibility.....played and played well in a tourney with big time schools......played a wide ranging OOC schedule, and bruised their way thru the WCC.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by seacatfan View Post
    Unfortunately for the Zags by far their 2 best wins have gotten devalued the last several weeks. Can't help them in anyway when it comes to seeding.
    Absolutely. What bugs me is that you tell the mid-majors to go out and challenge themselves in the OOC schedule and several have (GU, SD, SD State, Green Bay, etc.) and do so year after year. Many times those mid-major schools have winning records against the P-5 schools even against the upper echelon of the P-5 schools and yet those records get dismissed at tournament time.

    How many of the Top-16 have a better RPI than Gonzaga? How many have a better overall record? How many have better loses than Gonzaga (remember that BYU is still a top 50 RPI)? How many have better wins than Gonzaga? How many bad losses is a team permitted to have before it nullifies a good win?

    How does Marquette rate a #2 seed and Gonzaga a #4 seed (per ESPN). The only measure that Marquette beats Gonzaga is in RPI (#8 vs #13). In every other metric, good wins, good loses, overall record, etc. Gonzaga beats Marquette yet, we are on the bubble and they are secure in their #2 seed. By what justification? I don't care what metric you want to use, but pick one or two, make it transparent so the better mid-major teams can follow the program and see if they measure up. Almost every year a mid-major (last year it was two) made it to the sweet 16, but they had to do it the hard way with poor seedings and having to travel.

    If you have to travel, it makes a big difference (ask Oregon about MSU, ND about Miami, Baylor about UO, etc.) If you have to travel to play a good team on the road, it becomes much harder. If a mid-major has done the work requested, it should be rewarded for that work with the appropriate seeding.

    Only a half hour to go until showtime,

    ZagDad

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    I think they keep the seedings artificially vague so they can just play stupid when people ask...kind of like congress... it's similar to how they explain their exemptions for transfers to play right away...

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    Well, it's not the final bracket, but GU fans should be happy at the moment. #4 seed in the Portland Regional, would run into Oregon eventually if the seeds held up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sylean View Post
    I think they keep the seedings artificially vague so they can just play stupid when people ask...kind of like congress... it's similar to how they explain their exemptions for transfers to play right away...
    I don't think the Women's Tourney gets as much scrutiny. I can definitely remember more than once after the Men's Tourney brackets are revealed, the Selection Committee Chairman is trotted out to answer a few questions. Never get a straight answer, lots of double speak. Always seems like a politician or a lawyer. Yeah, the NCAA does not like transparency and does not like being held accountable for its decisions or actions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seacatfan View Post
    Well, it's not the final bracket, but GU fans should be happy at the moment. #4 seed in the Portland Regional, would run into Oregon eventually if the seeds held up.
    As a #4 seed you would have to play a #1 seed in the sweet sixteen no matter what bracket you were in. I absolutely do not want to play Baylor as I think they are the worst match up for the lady zags. I think the same also applies to Mississippi State. We just don't have anybody to match up in the post and our outside game is not strong enough to carry the day. I also think we would have a very hard time matching up with Louisville. Thus, by process of elimination our best match-up would probably be with the Ducks. So if I had to choose, a sweet 16 game in Portland against our old coach has a ring to it. I think the committee would like that possible match-up as well. In addition, we can always hope that UO has a bad shooting day .

    The best thing is, that as a #4 seed, if we are playing any #1 team, we are in the sweet 16, so it would be a very successful season.

    ZagDad
    Last edited by ZagDad84; 02-11-2019 at 05:34 PM. Reason: fixed because UConn is not a #1 seed

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    Just keep winning!
    The Kennel: "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy."

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    Here is the true list of the top-16 seeds as ranked by the NCAA today.

    1. @BaylorWBB
    2. @UofLWBB
    3. @OregonWBB
    4. @HailStateWBK
    5. @UConnWBB
    6. @ndwbb
    7. @StanfordWBB
    8. @PackWomensBball
    9. @MarquetteWBB
    10. @IowaWBB
    11. @umdwbb
    12. @BeaverWBB
    13. @GamecockWBB
    14. @ZagWBB
    15. @CycloneWBB
    16. @caneswbb

    So GU is actually the second #4 seed with South Carolina and Oregon State immediately above us and Iowa State and Miami directly behind us. So if you choose to root against somebody, South Carolina, Oregon State, Iowa State and Miami would be good choices.

    ZagDad

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    From the Slipper Still Fits:

    Gonzaga Women Receive 4 Seed in Top 16 Reveal
    In a season full of history, why not make some more?
    By Steven Karr Feb 11, 2019, 8:02pm EST

    As they did with the men over the weekend, the NCAA released their mid-season Top 16 for the women’s side on Monday night. Gonzaga received a four seed in the West (#14 overall), which would be the highest in school history. They will have another Top 16 update in three weeks.

    It’s appropriate that this team sets another record, as they’ve been doing it all year. Their number 13 ranking in the AP and number 12 rank in the coaches’ poll are both school records. They rebounded from a loss in Provo by beating each of their next six opponents by double digits. They now own a gaudy 22-2 record on the season. BYU has since lost three times, and Gonzaga can essentially wrap up the regular season championship on Saturday afternoon when they host BYU.

    If Gonzaga were to hold on to a top four seed, the McCarthey Athletic Center would host the Bulldogs pod for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The women’s side of things still uses the RPI and Gonzaga is currently number 13 in that lovely metric. Their wins over Stanford and Rutgers will go a long way, but they also own wins over conference leaders Missouri State and Idaho, along with Idaho State and Western Kentucky, who are both in the top three of their conferences. If Gonzaga reaches the Sweet 16, they would most likely face off with number one seed Oregon and former Head Coach Kelly Graves, which would be absolutely tremendous.

    Eight Zags average at least 20 minutes, highlighting their depth this season. Six of those players score at least eight points a game. The two that don’t, make their impact felt in other ways. LeeAnne Wirth has started all 24 games and is second on the team in offensive rebounds. Jessie Loera leads the team in both assists and steals in conference play.
    Article Link: https://www.slipperstillfits.com/201...-top-16-reveal

    ZagDad

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    Well South Carolina got walloped by UConn tonight (again...), so there's one team above the Zags taking another loss.

    Process of elimination for which #1 seed would be most desirable for the Zags to be paired with...not so sure about that. Ducks don't have a monster in the middle like McCowan or Brown, but they're playing better than anybody else in the country I'd say. Leading the nation in scoring I believe. Don't want to get in a shootout w/ them, not sure if Zags' D is good enough to slow them down. And Sabally is a match up nightmare. I don't know of anybody else w/ her combination of size, athleticism and skills. She's one of a kind in college.

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    so a number 4 would play the number 1?....don't like it.....we need some losses above us and we need to win out......3 seed would be better.......

    honestly, don't understand it very well as it shows..

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    Hey Cat, a little premature for talk of deciding which #1 we would pare best against, but I will take any, since that would mean we are in the sweet 16.

    I did not ask which team would we be able to stay closest too or which team could beat us by the largest amount, I asked which team did we match up best with and I still think that is Oregon or maybe Mississippi State.

    Baylor is just too big in the middle and our outside game is too inconsistent. Our inside game would be nill, we would have a very difficult time on the boards and if our outside game was 35% we are in trouble. For Baylor on offense, how do we at 6'1" and 6'3" keep 6'7" & 6'4" from just shooting lay-up after lay-up. Brown and Cox are just too tall and too athletic for the Lady Zags. If we had a big with some mass (maybe Anna next year) maybe we could move one of them out of the key, but with our current line-up, I don't think the match-up is good at all.

    Louisville is just too darn fast as a team and Durr would run circles around our guards, with no disrespect to LS, JL, KC and others. There is a reason that Durr was the Pre-Season player of the year and we just don't have anybody to stop her. Another match-up nightmare.

    Mississippi State may not be too bad a match-up outside of McCowan at 6'7" in the post. McCowan has been inconsistent at times and seems to take some plays off. She can be a monster in the middle at times, but she is not the consistent dominating force the pair of Baylor bigs has been all season. The supporting cast for Mississippi State is very good, but they never have shown the kind of output that UO is capable of generating. Outside of the post, we may match up better than with Oregon.

    There is no doubt that Oregon, when they are on, probably can out score every team in the tournament. That being said, they had a hard time with Syracuse at home in Eugene (2 pts), South Dakota State away (8 pts), Mississippi State in Eugene (8 points) and Arizona State in Eugene (6 pts) in addition to their loss to Michigan State in East Lansing (6 pts). If the ducks have an off day and the opposition has a better than average day, they can be had or at least have the game be kept close. Ionescu is a fabulous guard, is very crafty with a lot of moves and generally is a big pain in the behind not to mention her shooting. However, she is not really tall nor extremely quick. Cazorla is similar to Inonescu but on a much smaller scale. We have people who can match up with her. Boley is a great 3 point shooter, but she is not fast, not really that athletic and you need to stay in front of her. She is dangerous only if left alone. She is not a matchup problem by herself. Hebard is a very good post player but I don't think she is any more athletic than "Z". Zee gives up 3" but I don't think that Hebard is the match-up problem that the Baylor or MSST posts are. You are entirely correct that Sabally is a match-up headache for everyone and we certainly do not have anybody to match up with her. However, most of her work is done outside the key which negates her height somewhat on the defensive side of the ball. We would have nobody to contain her if she caught fire.

    if Oregon plays the way they did against Stanford, they could beat us by the largest amount of any of the #1 teams hands down, but that still does not mean they would not be the team we match up best against. Like our win against Stanford, we had to play better (maybe much better) than average and they needed to play a little worse (or a lot worse) than average and then have them get in some foul trouble and you never know. Mississippi State, I could see the same, but Baylor and Louisville scare me just with their personnel.

    As ESPN's Analyst Andy Landers says, there are going to be a lot of changes in the next 6 weeks and the Pac-12 tournament and ACC tournament are going to be a big decider on how the final seedings are set.

    At least we are in the car and headed down the road. It is up to the Lady Zags to see if they can finish this journey.

    ZagDad

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    It looks like most of the conversation on the seedings is not about who was included and was not included in the seedings but about the location of some of the seedings. There is little general, disagreement on who actually was seeded, which is good for Gonzaga.

    The biggest issue appears to be that the Greensboro regional is absolutely loaded and the Albany and Portland regionals are not near as stacked. If the tournament committee switched NCST to the Greensboro regional and Notre Dame to the Portland regional, it would go a long way to evening up the brackets.

    Andy Landers seemed to be the voice of reason. He explained that NCST is currently a #2 but they have to play 5 Top-25 ranked teams even before the ACC tournament. They most likely will not #2 seed when the next seedings come out and they may not even be seeded at all. Let the next 3 weeks play out and we will see where everybody stands on March 4 which is the date of the next and last reveal before selection Monday.

    ZagDad

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    Quote Originally Posted by sylean View Post
    so a number 4 would play the number 1?....don't like it.....we need some losses above us and we need to win out......3 seed would be better.......

    honestly, don't understand it very well as it shows..
    When you get to the sweet sixteen, which is the only way a #1 can play a #4, assuming chalk holds, #1 always plays the #4 and #2 would play #3. Check out this link, which shows the process much better. The brackets do not match the NCAA brackets but it gives you an idea.

    Link: http://www.espn.com/womens-college-b...l/bracketology

    With the above bracket, in Spokane #4 Gonzaga would play #13 UC Davis and #5 Florida State would play #12 Bucknell in round one games. Assuming GU and FSU both won their first round games, GU would play FSU in round 2 for the right to go on to Portland and play in the sweet sixteen game against likely #1 Oregon.

    ZagDad

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    From the Spokesman Review:

    Gonzaga slotted as No. 4 seed in first NCAA bracket reveal
    Mon., Feb. 11, 2019, 8:17 p.m.

    By Jim Allen
    jima@spokesman.com
    (509) 459-5437

    It’s hard to believe, but life is getting even better for the Gonzaga women’s basketball team and their fans.

    On Monday night, the NCAA’s first bracket reveal showed Gonzaga as a No. 4 seed in the Portland Regional of the NCAA Tournament.
    That confirmed an earlier prediction from ESPN bracketologist Charlie Crème, who predicted that the 13th-ranked Zags will earn a No.4 seed.

    That’s big news. If they’re right, it would mean GU would host first- and second-round games next month. It also would be the school’s first time as a host since the NCAA shifted to seeding as the sole criterion for hosting, in 2013. All of that comes with a few caveats. For one thing, Crème has been wrong before, but he has a better track record than rival prognosticators.

    Last year, on the eve of Selection Monday, he had GU as a 12 seed (they were 13th), while others penciled in GU as a single-digit seed.
    This time Crème is the optimist: College Sports Madness has the Zags as a No. 6 seed and getting shipped to powerhouse South Carolina, the 2017 NCAA champion.

    With a 22-2 overall record (11-1 in the West Coast Conference) and a No. 13 ranking in the RPI, the Zags certainly have the resume.
    Only four teams (Baylor, Louisville, Oregon and Mississippi State) have better records than Gonzaga. They’re also keeping good company. Last year the WCC ranked 14th in conference RPI; this year it’s eighth, thanks to a strong nonconference record.

    As of Monday, BYU checked in at 31st in RPI, while Saint Mary’s is 57th, Pacific 76th and Loyola Marymount 103rd – a rising tide that has kept GU’s RPI in the teens.

    Of course, the Zags must keep winning, but they can burnish that resume further this week by winning a pair of WCC home games.
    First up is last-place San Diego (7-15 overall, 1-11 in the WCC) on Thursday night. On Saturday it’s BYU, which hung a 70-68 defeat on the Zags back on Jan. 16.

    That put BYU alone in first place, but the Cougars have dropped three straight since then, leaving GU with a two-game lead on the field.
    Two more wins this week and the Zags would all but clinch the WCC regular-season title; it would be their fourth in five years under coach Lisa Fortier.

    Of course, fans want more. Crème’s prediction will come true if the Zags run the table, but that would mean eight straight wins.
    Article Link: http://www.spokesman.com/stories/201...-ncaa-bracket/

    ZagDad

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    Yes, talking about potential match ups is premature at this point. Being seeded in the top 16 is critical, and since GU is 14 in this reveal they even have a little wiggle room. Get to play the first two in Spokane, take care of business and advance to the Sweet 16, then see who lies in their path.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seacatfan View Post
    Yes, talking about potential match ups is premature at this point. Being seeded in the top 16 is critical, and since GU is 14 in this reveal they even have a little wiggle room. Get to play the first two in Spokane, take care of business and advance to the Sweet 16, then see who lies in their path.
    Probably not much wiggle room. I suspect a loss will knock us out. Just win!

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