2020 Jalen Suggs: Verbal Commit on 1/3/20

[Zagdawg]

Connor Stevens
@CStevensTGR
·
1h
Minnehaha came away with the win tonight over East Ridge behind 25 from Jalen Suggs.
@ChetHolmgren
had 10 points, likely double-digit rebounds, around 6-8 blocks and a stellar defensive performance. 6'5" East Ridge sophomore
@KendallBlue9
was really impressive for the Raptors.

[zagfan1970]

One week!!! I am even more confident than ever before that he will be a Zag, just saying.

Talking to one of our players a few days ago it seemed to me after that conversation it’s Zags or football. But, it seemed like football was bigger concern that I thought. Like maybe 10-15%?

[Bogozags]

6th Day of Suggsmas

Well, it's now under a week!

[Zagger]

Hes announcing his decision Jan 4th.

Tanx!

[jazzdelmar]

Talking to one of our players a few days ago it seemed to me after that conversation it’s Zags or football. But, it seemed like football was bigger concern that I thought. Like maybe 10-15%?

That’s at odds with Caldwell, who’s at better than 97%

[YankMyZAG]

That’s at odds with Caldwell, who’s at better than 97%

Math is hard.

[White lightning]

How does one place odds on opinions. No actual numbers to calculate. I go 50/50 when it comes down to a choice of a player. He's either going to be a Zag or not.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[caldwellzag]

Talking to one of our players a few days ago it seemed to me after that conversation it’s Zags or football. But, it seemed like football was bigger concern that I thought. Like maybe 10-15%?

Hmm not that what you heard is wrong but from our staff, from some people I know in Minnesota, from like everyone it's overseas or Gonzaga, he has stated it's basketball he will do in college.

[StatZag19]

How does one place odds on opinions. No actual numbers to calculate. I go 50/50 when it comes down to a choice of a player. He's either going to be a Zag or not.

If it's 50/50, then odds would just be 1:1. Caldwell has stated in the past that Suggs is somewhere like 90% to commit, so the odds on that would be 9:1.

[Zagdawg]

I have not seen anything floating around other than Gonzaga and overseas (with a brief Florida mention) ---- but would expect he would have taken a visit to Florida if he was really considering it.

Caldwells info makes sense.

[vandalzag]

I have not seen anything floating around other than Gonzaga and overseas (with a brief Florida mention) ---- but would expect he would have taken a visit to Florida if he was really considering it.

Caldwells info makes sense.

Football at Florida would be an odd choice since the sport mandates a 3 year wait to get paid. If he was open to that then playing hoops overseas makes no sense, since that path is all about accellerating a players path to the NBA.

[White lightning]

If it's 50/50, then odds would just be 1:1. Caldwell has stated in the past that Suggs is somewhere like 90% to commit, so the odds on that would be 9:1.

Again you are basing odds on opinion not fact. I'm pulling for him to join the team. Still 1:1. Either a zag or not.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[caldwellzag]

I have not seen anything floating around other than Gonzaga and overseas (with a brief Florida mention) ---- but would expect he would have taken a visit to Florida if he was really considering it.

Caldwells info makes sense.

He considered a Florida visit but he choose not to go. That was briefly when he was considering possiblity doing both in college, but he has chosen basketball from everything I have heard.

[caldwellzag]

Again you are basing odds on opinion not fact. I'm pulling for him to join the team. Still 1:1. Either a zag or not.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

I agree no odds needed he will be a Zag or he won't, I am confident he will be a Zag.

[scrooner]

Again you are basing odds on opinion not fact. I'm pulling for him to join the team. Still 1:1. Either a zag or not.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

If that's how odds work, I need to get some lottery tickets.

[White lightning]

If that's how odds work, I need to get some lottery tickets.

Go for it!! Lottery tickets actually have statistical percentages. Definitely not 1:1.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[StatZag19]

Again

First response to you, buddy.

While it's true odds can't be placed on opinion, I was merely giving an answer. Remember, Vegas places their odds on what they think will happen. It's supported by statistical analysis, but there are factors they cannot accurately quantify. I.e. injuries, players sitting out without a formal announcement, etc. That is what gambling is.

Caldwell has a much better grip on the situation than the rest of us. Here's what we know: he's highly unlikely to play football. You could say 95% unlikely. He's highly likely to play basketball, probably also 95% likely. He's likely to commit to Gonzaga in the case he does choose basketball, probably around 90% as Caldwell's confidence has come off as. So if we're going to place odds on this, it's probably most likely close to 8:1 given all the factors.

There are prop bets out there purely based on luck or guesswork. Vegas still puts a line out because degens will bet on them with whatever theoretical concoction they've come up with.

[White lightning]

First response to you, buddy.

While it's true odds can't be placed on opinion, I was merely giving an answer. Remember, Vegas places their odds on what they think will happen. It's supported by statistical analysis, but there are factors they cannot accurately quantify. I.e. injuries, players sitting out without a formal announcement, etc. That is what gambling is.

Caldwell has a much better grip on the situation than the rest of us. Here's what we know: he's highly unlikely to play football. You could say 95% unlikely. He's highly likely to play basketball, probably also 95% likely. He's likely to commit to Gonzaga in the case he does choose basketball, probably around 90% as Caldwell's confidence has come off as. So if we're going to place odds on this, it's probably most likely close to 8:1 given all the factors.

There are prop bets out there purely based on luck or guesswork. Vegas still puts a line out because degens will bet on them with whatever theoretical concoction they've come up with.

I'm curious, because I'm not into gambling, does vegas place odds to support a wager in their favor or actually predict the outcome.

A lot of people drive the odds by placing a bet one way or another. The line changes to hedge the possibility of a loss to Vegas financially. Also vegas places odds to protect themselves from a major loss like lower payouts if Tiger wins another major, or a blue blood winning in march.

I'm sorry if my reply earlier took this thread off topic.

Go Gonzaga and come on Jalen. Make the right decision so we can start a new theead !!!!

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[bdmiller7]

Go for it!! Lottery tickets actually have statistical percentages. Definitely not 1:1.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

By your own rationale it is, either you win or you dont, 1:1.

[JPtheBeasta]

Again you are basing odds on opinion not fact. I'm pulling for him to join the team. Still 1:1. Either a zag or not.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Would you accept as fact that there are many factors to play into a yes or no decision? (Does every decision you make depend on a coin flip in your brain, or do certain criteria carry more weight than others? Personally, if I was thinking about jumping out of a plane without a parachute, this is not a 50/50 "jump or not jump" proposition). If this is not an acceptable example, would you accept that there are many factors that go into a team winning a game, or a player making a shot?

By your logic, it seems that every team would be .500 (Win or Not), and every shooter would be 50% (Make it or Not)

Also, the Zag or Not scenario seems to be meaningful at face value, but is arbitrary, because there many more than 2 possible outcomes that have to be considered, all with their own probabilities:
1. Zag or Not
2. College basketball for another team or Not (each team he is considering would have to be included here)
3. Pro basketball or Not
4. Play football or Not (for any number of teams, so each team he is considering would have to be included here)
5. Sit out and prepare for the draft or Not

[bartruff1]

math is hard...

[White lightning]

math is hard...

+1

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[Radbooks]

When people ask if the board is dying, it's these kind of really stupid arguments that come to my mind.

[White lightning]

I agree no odds needed he will be a Zag or he won't, I am confident he will be a Zag.

That was all I was trying to say.

"By your logic, it seems that every team would be .500 (Win or Not), and every shooter would be 50% (Make it or Not)"

No his is how you perceive my logic. Decision obviously have more factors than a coin flip. Calculating probability is different than assigning a % to a result.

Actually each game is either a win or loss if ties are not allowed. The season is a string of wins or losses. You can calculate the winning % from the results.

Each shot is either made or missed. From the results you can calculate shooting %.

As far as becoming a zag or not it is a 1:1 equation. Adding options to the "or not" obviously changes the equation.

It's just my opinion . I'm not trying to start a debate.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[willandi]

Would you accept as fact that there are many factors to play into a yes or no decision? (Does every decision you make depend on a coin flip in your brain, or do certain criteria carry more weight than others? Personally, if I was thinking about jumping out of a plane without a parachute, this is not a 50/50 "jump or not jump" proposition). If this is not an acceptable example, would you accept that there are many factors that go into a team winning a game, or a player making a shot?

By your logic, it seems that every team would be .500 (Win or Not), and every shooter would be 50% (Make it or Not)

Also, the Zag or Not scenario seems to be meaningful at face value, but is arbitrary, because there many more than 2 possible outcomes that have to be considered, all with their own probabilities:
1. Zag or Not
2. College basketball for another team or Not (each team he is considering would have to be included here)
3. Pro basketball or Not
4. Play football or Not (for any number of teams, so each team he is considering would have to be included here)
5. Sit out and prepare for the draft or Not

I have had to make that choice and jumped out of the plane without a chute.

Had it been in the air, the choice would have been much harder.