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Thread: Way to Early Wbb Bracketology

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    Default Way to Early Wbb Bracketology

    While it is only December, it is never too early for mid-majors to worry about the NCAA tournament. If a mid-major wants/needs an "at-large" bid, they need to stake their claim in the OOC season, because their conference schedules have little meaning to the committee.

    After their big win yesterday and good showing in Vancouver, her is where ESPN Wbb Bracketologist has some of the top rated mid-majors currently being seeded:

    While mid-majors make waves, Gamecocks land at No. 8 seed

    11:55 AM PT
    Charlie Creme
    ESPN.com

    What better time to kick off another season of bracketology than the day after the best game of the year so far?
    UConn entered Sunday's contest against Notre Dame as an underdog but left once again as the top team in the sport. The Huskies are the No. 1 overall seed in espnW's first bracket projection of the 2018-19 season, and Sunday's showdown laid the foundation for the pecking order of the country's best teams going forward.

    Neither the Huskies nor the Irish had anything to gain or lose Sunday. Both were going to be a top seed; UConn is No. 1 in the Albany Regional and Notre Dame tops Chicago. But Sunday's victory gives UConn a cushion during a string of six straight road games that kicked off in South Bend. The final two are against Cal and Baylor, a pair of top-15 RPI opponents. Later this season, the Huskies also have a trip to Louisville and a home game against South Carolina. Given the performance on Sunday and that the Huskies have won 122 consecutive regular-season games, a cushion might be unnecessary. But even if their lack of depth is exposed in one of these games, the Huskies' No. 1 seed will still be secure.

    Cal might not quite be ready to beat UConn when they meet in three weeks, but the 6-0 Bears have had a solid start to the season, elevating themselves and the rest of the Pac-12. With Cal (No. 3 seed) and Arizona State (No. 4) outperforming their preseason expectations, the conference placed five teams in the top-16 seeds, joining Oregon (No. 1 seed), Oregon State (No. 2) and Stanford (No. 3). The Pac-12 is the second-rated league by the RPI (behind the ACC, which has four teams among the top-16), and took a small hit on Sunday when the Cardinal were upset by Gonzaga.

    Speaking of mid-majors ...
    That win propelled the Zags to a No. 6 seed. Drake, which played Notre Dame solidly and beat South Carolina, is also on the 6-line. South Dakota, which is ninth in the RPI and has a win over Iowa State, is a 7-seed. South Dakota State, with the country's sixth-toughest schedule, also made the field as an at-large, making this the best mid-major showing at this stage of the season in espnW's bracketology history. This is coming off a year when Buffalo and Central Michigan each made the Sweet 16.

    Editor's Picks

    Bracektology: Huskies, Irish, Ducks and Cardinals are 1-seeds
    Five Pac-12 teams are among the top-16 seeds, South Carolina is an 8-seed and mid-majors are making waves in our first projection of 2018-19.

    UConn upends No. 1 Notre Dame behind freshman Williams' big day
    Big stage, big breakout performance. UConn freshman Christyn Williams scored 28 points in a 89-71 win over defending NCAA champion Notre Dame.

    Drake remains No. 1 in espnW's mid-major rankings
    Belmont jumped one spot to No. 2 in our updated mid-major rankings, but the Bruins still trail No. 1 Drake, which is 6-1 and beat South Carolina. Drake and South Dakota State square off in Brookings on Saturday in a game that potentially has big seeding implications. The Jackrabbits then host Oregon four days later. Drake also has Iowa and Iowa State left to play before Christmas, and South Dakota goes to Missouri in two weeks.

    This group of mid-majors are the teams to watch as the season progresses, and they have opportunities to build even stronger résumés going forward. Each of them is in position for an at-large bid should they fall short of winning their conference tournaments. Even though Selection Monday is nearly four months away, it's not too early to start talking potential bid stealers.

    Gamecocks in unfamiliar territory
    Three of the four aforementioned mid-majors all check in with better seeds than South Carolina. While bracketology is a snapshot of the season as it currently stands and doesn't project wins and losses down the road, South Carolina still looks like an NCAA tournament team. Nonetheless, it sounds strange to even broach the subject of whether the Gamecocks are tournament-worthy.
    Dawn Staley's crew was not competitive in an early-season home loss to Maryland and was even more overmatched by Baylor in Columbia on Sunday. Throw in closer losses to Oregon State and Drake at the Vancouver Showcase and the Gamecocks are 4-4.

    They are struggling to find their way without A'ja Wilson, and the offense has been wildly in consistent. Even though the SEC looks slightly down this season despite having eight teams in this week's projection (it is only the sixth-rated conference by the RPI), South Carolina -- which still has notable nonconference games with Purdue and Duke before starting league play -- has work to do so we aren't having this same conversation a month or two from now.
    Article Link: http://www.espn.com/womens-college-b...ands-no-8-seed

    Agree or disagree, Crème does not do too bad of job at his tournament selections. The fact that he has GU at a #6, this early in the season is a good sign. However, a fall in any of the rest of the OCC games (GU is favored in all of them) will result in a significant fall in seeding allowing little or no room for conference losses.

    No bad losses ladies. Let's hit the conference schedule on a roll.

    ZagDad

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    I wonder why GU hasn't hosted a subregional in a while. Spokane always filled The Kennel to the rafters.
    The Kennel: "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy."

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    Quote Originally Posted by BobZag View Post
    I wonder why GU hasn't hosted a subregional in a while. Spokane always filled The Kennel to the rafters.
    I think there have been some rules changes that prohibit teams from playing at an arena, in a regional, in which they have played two (??) or more times during the calendar year. Thus, the Lady Zags don't want to host a regional at the MAC because they could not play in it.

    In the D-1 NCAA tournament, the Wbb is different from the Mbb in that the first and second round games are played at the home arena's of the Top 16 seeds. Thus, the Lady Zags could play at the MAC for the first two rounds if they could get a top 16 seed.

    Of course, the Spokane Arena last hosted a Wbb regional last year and according to the NCAA website, Spokane will host 3rd and 4th round games in both 2021 and 2022 with Idaho being the host school.

    ZagDad

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    ZagDad[/QUOTE]

    So,who sets the final seeds......and is it based on the polls....USA TODAY...Up-to-date has us at #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by sylean View Post

    So,who sets the final seeds......and is it based on the polls....USA TODAY...Up-to-date has us at #16
    The writers poll (AP) and the coaches poll (USA Today) do not have any direct impact on the NCAA seedings. The NCAA selection committee selects and seeds the teams according to their own scoring metrics. While the NCAA seedings tend to following the polls, there are exceptions. Thus, just because you may be seeded at #16 in the polls does not mean you will receive one of the four, #4 seeds and be hosting first and second round.

    Use the polls as a guide too see how the national pundits and coaches feel about your team. If you are in the Top 25 maybe even a Top 30, odds are that you will get a at large bid even if you do not win your conference tournament. If you are in the Top 10-12, you likely will be hosting for the 1st and 2nd rounds. Once you get near the cut-off points (say 14-16 for seeding and 30+ for selection), the NCAA committee can go either way and what is in their best interest typically is not in the best interests of the mid-major programs. So, if you are a mid-major program, you don't want to be near the cut-off points.

    Things like the Lady Zags getting named NCAA Wbb team of the week puts the program in front of the pundits and provides more name recognition. It is all good and it all helps come selection Monday.

    I found the USA-Today has us ranked at #22. See here: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa.../coaches-poll/

    ZagDad
    Last edited by ZagDad84; 12-04-2018 at 02:56 PM.

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    yes I don't know where that # 16 came from...wishful thinking I guess.

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    If you take a closer look at the polls (the coach's poll in this case) and compare it to last week's mid-major top-25 (college insider's poll) you will see the problem of the mid-majors.

    Currently, Drake at #21 and Gonzaga at #22 are the only non-P-6 conference teams listed in the Top 25 despite numerous P-6 conference teams having 2 losses, Depaul (#17) having 3 loses and South Carolina (#24) having 4 losses. The polls are supposed to be based on the body of work you have achieved to date, not what you did last year, not what you could/should be or maybe will be but what have you done.

    If you take the coach's poll to the Top-30, the next four teams (26-29) are P-6 conference teams with South Florida, not a traditional mid-major but not a P-6 team coming in 30th.

    If you take the coach's poll to the Top-35, the next four teams (31-34) are P-6 conference teams with South Dakota, a mid-major team coming in 35th.

    So according to the USA Today coach's poll, the Top 35 teams in the country include 31 teams from P-6 conferences, 3 mid-major teams and 1 team that is not a mid-major but not a P-6 team.

    You can see why it is so hard for a mid-major or non-P-6 conference team to get an at large berth. Two teams that made the sweet 16 last year and having only 1 loss this year; Central Michigan and Buffalo are not receiving even one vote in this weeks coach's poll. Central Michigan is ranked #5 in last week's mid-major poll, has a 7-1 record with their only loss to a Top-10 (mid-major) rated South Dakota State and has a victory over Virginia at Virginia. Buffalo is ranked #2 in last week's mid-major poll, has a record of 4-1 with their only loss coming to Oregon and with wins over South Dakota State and Georgetown.

    If you want to be ranked in the two national polls, you have to do something special (like beat Stanford) and not do anything stupid (like GU's losses to UNLV, Colorado State, etc. last year). While the P-6 teams can get away with a bad loss or two, the committee will explain these losses away by quoting the number of quality wins the P-6 conference teams have. The non-P-6 conference teams do not have the opportunity for a large number of "quality" wins, thus a single bad loss may move a non-P-6 team to the bubble and two or three bad losses will likely move a non-P-6 team out of the realm of getting an "at-large" bid and thus having to win their conference tournament to get the NCAA bid.

    Let's see how this relates to GU. Last year, despite a 17-1 conference record, a conference championship and an overall record of 26-5 entering the WCC Championship game, had the Lady Zags lost to USD, it has been reported that they would not have received an at-large bid to get into the tournament. Why, because last year's team best (and only) win against a P-6 opponent was against a mediocre WSU team. Combine this with a double digit loss to Depaul in our only other P-6 game, losses to Colorado State and UNLV in our OOC and a home blow-out loss to St. Mary's and our resume' simply did not warrant an "at-large" bid. No real quality wins, a poor showing against another P-6 team and three bad losses. This put tremendous pressure on the Lady Zags to win the tournament or go home. If you are a mid-major, Wbb team, every week you are fighting for your life if you want an opportunity for that safety net (an at-large bid).

    This year's team is in much better shape so far. Their only loss was to a top-ranked ND team by a manageable amount. A signature victory of a top-ranked (8/7) Stanford team and another victory over a P-6 opponent (Rutgers) with no bad loses. If we can finish up the rest of our OOC schedule with 3 more victories, we will add another victory over a P-6 (WSU) opponent (P-6 record of 3-1) and no bad loses. This would likely give us a good chance at an at-large berth if we won the conference championship but did not win the WCC tourney.

    Every game counts to the mid-major Wbb teams. You simply cannot take a week off if you want an opportunity at an at-large bid. The Lady Zags know what they have to do to create this cushion and so far this year, they have done everything asked of them.

    Zag Up ladies, the Cougars are coming to the Kennel.

    ZagDad

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    beating Rutgers is a good win, no matter what Rutgers' record is.....I would not be surprised if UNLV comes along....and then if we can beat WSU we'll have two Pac 12 wins....not too bad....

    but my only number is whatever number gets us to host 2 games in the Kennel....it would make a hellava lot of difference in how far we go in the tourney....

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZagDad84 View Post
    I think there have been some rules changes that prohibit teams from playing at an arena, in a regional, in which they have played two (??) or more times during the calendar year. Thus, the Lady Zags don't want to host a regional at the MAC because they could not play in it.

    In the D-1 NCAA tournament, the Wbb is different from the Mbb in that the first and second round games are played at the home arena's of the Top 16 seeds. Thus, the Lady Zags could play at the MAC for the first two rounds if they could get a top 16 seed.

    Of course, the Spokane Arena last hosted a Wbb regional last year and according to the NCAA website, Spokane will host 3rd and 4th round games in both 2021 and 2022 with Idaho being the host school.

    ZagDad
    This is impossible, though. Nobody knows what teams will be seeded top 16 years before. I can only think The Kennel is now not big enough due to rule changes. Or GU simply doesn't care to host it any more.
    The Kennel: "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy."

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    Quote Originally Posted by BobZag View Post
    This is impossible, though. Nobody knows what teams will be seeded top 16 years before. I can only think The Kennel is now not big enough due to rule changes. Or GU simply doesn't care to host it any more.
    O'k you got me. I have no idea what you are talking about? Where did I ever mention 16 years and what would this apply to?

    According to that dreaded website Wikipedia, The MAC has never hosted a regional round of the NCAA tournament. The MAC has hosted 1st and 2nd round games in 2011, 2012 & 2013.

    Fact- Do to very low attendance (nationwide, not necessarily at any one venue) and on-going complaints by top-seeded (read P-6 conference) teams having to play at lower seeded team's home arenas (yes the MAC was part of this debate) the 1st and 2nd round games are played at the top 16 seeded teams home courts. It has been this way for the last several years and is very different from the Mbb tournament. The Mbb have never had to worry about attendance issues. If you want to continue to argue, here is a link to last year's tournament. Click on any of the 1st and second round games and you will find that they were played at the home court of the #1-#4 seeded teams in each regional. Link: https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/basketball-women/d1

    Fact - On Selection Monday, the NCAA committee selects the 64 (not 68 like the men) teams they have selected for their tournament. They seed each of these teams #1 to #16 in each region (16 teams in each region x 4 regions = 64 teams). The top 4 seeds in each region host the 1st and 2nd round games at their home venues. Subsequent tournament rounds are played at pre-selected regional and final four sites just like the Mbb. Yes on a rare occasion, the home venue for a top 16 team is already booked for an event and then the game is moved to the next higher seed's home venue.

    Fact - While the MAC has never hosted regional games, the Spokane Arena has hosted numerous regional rounds of the Wbb NCAA tournament, most recently in 2018 and they will host again in 2021 and 2022. Originally WSU was the sponsoring institution, in 2018, 2021 & 2022 the sponsoring college is Idaho.

    You may be right in that the MAC does not meet the minimum attendance size for a regional site. I know that is a requirement on the men's side but I do not know if it is a requirement on the women's side. But the requirement by the NCAA to have a minimum number of seats available in the arena was at least one factor in the Spokane Arena in adding seats to the facility.

    Fact - If the Lady Zags want to play in the MAC, all they have to do is get one of the top 16 seeds (seeds #1-#4 in any regional) and they are guaranteed to play at home. If they get one of the top 16 seeds in 2021 or 2022 they would have an opportunity to play rounds #1 & #2 at the MAC and rounds #3 & #4 in the Spokane Arena as long as they kept winning.

    ZagDad

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZagDad84 View Post
    O'k you got me. I have no idea what you are talking about? Where did I ever mention 16 years and what would this apply to?

    According to that dreaded website Wikipedia, The MAC has never hosted a regional round of the NCAA tournament. The MAC has hosted 1st and 2nd round games in 2011, 2012 & 2013.

    Fact- Do to very low attendance (nationwide, not necessarily at any one venue) and on-going complaints by top-seeded (read P-6 conference) teams having to play at lower seeded team's home arenas (yes the MAC was part of this debate) the 1st and 2nd round games are played at the top 16 seeded teams home courts. It has been this way for the last several years and is very different from the Mbb tournament. The Mbb have never had to worry about attendance issues. If you want to continue to argue, here is a link to last year's tournament. Click on any of the 1st and second round games and you will find that they were played at the home court of the #1-#4 seeded teams in each regional. Link: https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/basketball-women/d1

    Fact - On Selection Monday, the NCAA committee selects the 64 (not 68 like the men) teams they have selected for their tournament. They seed each of these teams #1 to #16 in each region (16 teams in each region x 4 regions = 64 teams). The top 4 seeds in each region host the 1st and 2nd round games at their home venues. Subsequent tournament rounds are played at pre-selected regional and final four sites just like the Mbb. Yes on a rare occasion, the home venue for a top 16 team is already booked for an event and then the game is moved to the next higher seed's home venue.

    Fact - While the MAC has never hosted regional games, the Spokane Arena has hosted numerous regional rounds of the Wbb NCAA tournament, most recently in 2018 and they will host again in 2021 and 2022. Originally WSU was the sponsoring institution, in 2018, 2021 & 2022 the sponsoring college is Idaho.

    You may be right in that the MAC does not meet the minimum attendance size for a regional site. I know that is a requirement on the men's side but I do not know if it is a requirement on the women's side. But the requirement by the NCAA to have a minimum number of seats available in the arena was at least one factor in the Spokane Arena in adding seats to the facility.

    Fact - If the Lady Zags want to play in the MAC, all they have to do is get one of the top 16 seeds (seeds #1-#4 in any regional) and they are guaranteed to play at home. If they get one of the top 16 seeds in 2021 or 2022 they would have an opportunity to play rounds #1 & #2 at the MAC and rounds #3 & #4 in the Spokane Arena as long as they kept winning.

    ZagDad
    Okay, I see. I thought bids were made 1-2 years before. Now I see you're saying schools find out on Selection Monday? Still, that seems such a short notice.
    The Kennel: "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy."

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    Quote Originally Posted by BobZag View Post
    Okay, I see. I thought bids were made 1-2 years before. Now I see you're saying schools find out on Selection Monday? Still, that seems such a short notice.
    Agreed, but they get more notice than the Mbb selections 65-68 that get notified on Sunday and have to play on Tuesday with the winners having to travel and play again on Friday.

    In reality, if you are ranked in the top 10-12 and are a P-6 conference team, you are pretty sure you are going to host. The NCAA committee, on the Wbb side, seems to go overboard (much more so than the Mbb) on placing teams, as much as possible, in the region in which they reside to minimize travel even if it costs a team some significant seeding.

    As I think about it, is it really that different from traveling to home venues or pre-selected sites? Even though the Mbb teams (and their fans) know the sites of the 1st and 2nd round games, they do not know their seedings, and what regional their in until after selection Sunday so they can't make travel arrangements until Sunday night any way. Like the discussion on the Mbb board, Salt Lake City, or San Jose, you won't know until selection Sunday. The women only have one less day then the Mbb to make the travel arrangements.

    While Wbb fans hate it, unfortunately, there remains a significant talent difference between say the top 7-10 teams, teams 10-30 and teams lower than 30 much more so than in the men. Thus, while there are upsets in the 1st and 2nd round, the number of upsets in the subsequent rounds are not nearly as prevalent as they are in Mbb. Most dedicated watchers of D-1 Wbb could probably pick the elite 8 with 85+% accuracy as soon as the brackets are announced. Hopefully, more parity will come to Wbb in the future, but right now, that is not the case. Hence, screwing up a few teams seedings to keep them in their regional will most likely not impact the elite 8 anyway as the vast majority of time, the elite 8 come from the top 16 seeds. Best teams playing at home is tough to beat.

    ZagDad

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