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Thread: Zags widen lead in AP poll

  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robzagnut View Post
    I disagree. Add in Auburn and Gonzaga. That's three Top 10 teams.

    If GU gets credit for Arizona and Duke, they should get credit for Auburn and GU.
    Duke lost to a WCC team. East of the Mississippi, that’s a “bad loss.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by SWZag View Post
    One comment on the bottom...
    Jesse’s plus/minus is now at -29. lol

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    Creighton at 31.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robzagnut View Post
    I disagree. Add in Auburn and Gonzaga. That's three Top 10 teams.

    If GU gets credit for Arizona and Duke, they should get credit for Auburn and GU.
    Auburn and Gonzaga we're not scheduled out of conference games, they were part of the tournament. Do you think Duke would've chosen to play either one of those schools if they had a choice?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Frank Selvy?
    He led the nation in scoring one year, I believe. But at the bottom of the scroll on ESPN it said that this is our first time ever being ranked. Pretty cool.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Auburn and Gonzaga we're not scheduled out of conference games, they were part of the tournament. Do you think Duke would've chosen to play either one of those schools if they had a choice?
    You bet. Every team goes to Maui hoping for the best ranked opponents possible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasZagFan View Post
    Jesse’s plus/minus is now at -29. lol
    It is now at -44 thanks to my vote!!! What a joke!

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasZagFan View Post
    Has Kansas at 4.
    I emailed Mr. Newell and asked him if he could share his logic with me on his choice of choosing Duke as #1 even though they lost to GU. He kindly replied and sent me this article (Written by Kevin Flaherty) from the Devil's Den which I have included in this post.

    The AP voter who picked Duke No. 1 yet again
    BYKEVIN FLAHERTY Nov 26, 7:46 PM When the Associated Press Poll came out Monday, so came a new No. 1 in college basketball as Duke fell from the top spot.
    Except for one voter, who picked Duke as his No. 1 yet again, despite the Blue Devils’ 89-87 loss to Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational final.
    Kansas City Star writer Jesse Newell covers Kansas as a beat, though he’s one of the nation’s best writers at looking at the big picture through advanced metrics. And Newell told 247Sports that he liked to look at predictive rankings like Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom.com, or Bart Torvik’s BartTorvik.com. Newell said that “it’s OK for reasonable minds to disagree” on how to rank teams, but that he looked at, “in short-hand terms, who would Las Vegas have as a favorite if these two teams played at a neutral site.”
    There are two ways to rank teams, Newell said. First, people can simply rank the nation’s best teams. Second, they can rank the most deserving teams, focusing more on résumé. Newell prefers the first, as opposed to using the AP Poll as what Pomeroy referred to on a recent podcast as de facto college basketball standings.
    How does that relate to Newell picking Duke No. 1? For one thing, both KenPom and BartTorvik still have the Blue Devils tops in their formulas. For another, Newell believes that, at this point, Duke is the nation’s best team. He brought up Kansas losing both regular season matchups to Oklahoma State last year as an example of why head-to-head results shouldn’t be treated as gospel.
    “Was Oklahoma State a better team than Kansas? I don’t think anybody would say that,” Newell said. “But they won those head-to-head games.
    “If Duke and Gonzaga were to play in Maui 100 times, I think Duke would win more than Gonzaga would,” Newell said. “That can be a weird way for somebody to wrap their minds around. But if you look at predictive metrics, if they played again tomorrow, Duke would still be favored.”
    Newell also pointed out the low margin of victory for Gonzaga, and how Kansas needed overtime to overcome Tennessee. Both were airtight games down the stretch where a bounce one way or the other and Duke maintains its No. 1 ranking and Kansas pay drop out of the top five.
    “Look at all three of Duke’s results from last week: Duke blew out a top 75 type team, handled a top 10 team and then lost to a team many now consider the best by two points, all on a neutral court,” Newell said. “All that matters. Look at KU and Duke: One won a close game, one lost a close game. Sometimes in basketball games, those little margins are out of your control. Tennessee would have loved it if its best player, Grant Williams, hadn’t fouled out and was there for the end of the game and overtime. Kansas would have loved to have Udoka Azubuike. There was a goaltending that wasn’t called that would have given Kansas two points [that could have avoided OT altogether].”
    Those close games meant that Newell “still feel[s] basically the same way about those teams.”
    “Last week, people were talking about Duke being able to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers,” Newell said. “And then this week, because they lost by two points, they’re not the best team in college basketball?
    “My opinion doesn’t change that much unless there’s a drastic result,” Newell said. “Losing to Gonzaga on a neutral court didn’t ding Duke very much; it didn’t fall at all in those predictive metrics. Duke is still No. 1 in both KenPom and BartTorvik.”
    Newell said the biggest complaint that he gets for his approach is that results don’t matter — wins and losses aren’t a component of KenPom or BartTorvik’s formula.
    “But that’s the exact opposite of what I’m doing here,” Newell said. “People want to rank based on wins or losses, but these formulas look at every single possession. Had Duke lost by 30, that would be reflected [in the metrics]. It didn’t. They lost by two.”
    Newell added that he wasn’t taking his approach to be controversial.

    “If you look at my social media mentions, this hasn’t been a fun day,” Newell said, laughing. “I’m really not trying to ruffle feathers with this; I believe in this. I believe Duke is the best team right now when you combine everything and look at the best numbers, they reflect my point. That’s truly what I believe.”



    I found his argument to be valid according to the metrics he mentioned...I've not seen either of those metrics nor I don't believe anyone on this site has posted them.

    Zags are going to have an incredible season and I'll enjoy watching each and every game they play and hopefully, they will win all of them...lol

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    He should also look at the NET which has Virginia #1, Gonzaga #2 and Duke #4. Duke has no road wins and one neutral loss. Gonzaga has 1 road win and no neutral losses. There are a lot of other factors going into the NET, and I know its early in the season, but it seems like he is selecting metrics that fit his desired outcome.

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    I emailed Mr. Newell and asked him if he could share his logic with me on his choice of choosing Duke as #1 even though they lost to GU. He kindly replied and sent me this article (Written by Kevin Flaherty) from the Devil's Den which I have included in this post.

    The AP voter who picked Duke No. 1 yet again
    BYKEVIN FLAHERTY Nov 26, 7:46 PM When the Associated Press Poll came out Monday, so came a new No. 1 in college basketball as Duke fell from the top spot.
    Except for one voter, who picked Duke as his No. 1 yet again, despite the Blue Devils’ 89-87 loss to Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational final.
    Kansas City Star writer Jesse Newell covers Kansas as a beat, though he’s one of the nation’s best writers at looking at the big picture through advanced metrics. And Newell told 247Sports that he liked to look at predictive rankings like Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom.com, or Bart Torvik’s BartTorvik.com. Newell said that “it’s OK for reasonable minds to disagree” on how to rank teams, but that he looked at, “in short-hand terms, who would Las Vegas have as a favorite if these two teams played at a neutral site.”
    There are two ways to rank teams, Newell said. First, people can simply rank the nation’s best teams. Second, they can rank the most deserving teams, focusing more on résumé. Newell prefers the first, as opposed to using the AP Poll as what Pomeroy referred to on a recent podcast as de facto college basketball standings.
    How does that relate to Newell picking Duke No. 1? For one thing, both KenPom and BartTorvik still have the Blue Devils tops in their formulas. For another, Newell believes that, at this point, Duke is the nation’s best team. He brought up Kansas losing both regular season matchups to Oklahoma State last year as an example of why head-to-head results shouldn’t be treated as gospel.
    “Was Oklahoma State a better team than Kansas? I don’t think anybody would say that,” Newell said. “But they won those head-to-head games.
    “If Duke and Gonzaga were to play in Maui 100 times, I think Duke would win more than Gonzaga would,” Newell said. “That can be a weird way for somebody to wrap their minds around. But if you look at predictive metrics, if they played again tomorrow, Duke would still be favored.”
    Newell also pointed out the low margin of victory for Gonzaga, and how Kansas needed overtime to overcome Tennessee. Both were airtight games down the stretch where a bounce one way or the other and Duke maintains its No. 1 ranking and Kansas pay drop out of the top five.
    “Look at all three of Duke’s results from last week: Duke blew out a top 75 type team, handled a top 10 team and then lost to a team many now consider the best by two points, all on a neutral court,” Newell said. “All that matters. Look at KU and Duke: One won a close game, one lost a close game. Sometimes in basketball games, those little margins are out of your control. Tennessee would have loved it if its best player, Grant Williams, hadn’t fouled out and was there for the end of the game and overtime. Kansas would have loved to have Udoka Azubuike. There was a goaltending that wasn’t called that would have given Kansas two points [that could have avoided OT altogether].”
    Those close games meant that Newell “still feel[s] basically the same way about those teams.”
    “Last week, people were talking about Duke being able to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers,” Newell said. “And then this week, because they lost by two points, they’re not the best team in college basketball?
    “My opinion doesn’t change that much unless there’s a drastic result,” Newell said. “Losing to Gonzaga on a neutral court didn’t ding Duke very much; it didn’t fall at all in those predictive metrics. Duke is still No. 1 in both KenPom and BartTorvik.”
    Newell said the biggest complaint that he gets for his approach is that results don’t matter — wins and losses aren’t a component of KenPom or BartTorvik’s formula.
    “But that’s the exact opposite of what I’m doing here,” Newell said. “People want to rank based on wins or losses, but these formulas look at every single possession. Had Duke lost by 30, that would be reflected [in the metrics]. It didn’t. They lost by two.”
    Newell added that he wasn’t taking his approach to be controversial.

    “If you look at my social media mentions, this hasn’t been a fun day,” Newell said, laughing. “I’m really not trying to ruffle feathers with this; I believe in this. I believe Duke is the best team right now when you combine everything and look at the best numbers, they reflect my point. That’s truly what I believe.”



    I found his argument to be valid according to the metrics he mentioned...I've not seen either of those metrics nor I don't believe anyone on this site has posted them.

    Zags are going to have an incredible season and I'll enjoy watching each and every game they play and hopefully, they will win all of them...lol
    I understand what he's saying but simply disagree with it. If you look at the breadth of the Gonzaga-Duke game, the Zags outplayed Duke for the first 30 minutes. Duke's run coincided with Brandon Clarke going out of the game with his 4th foul. I'm not arguing that Gonzaga wouldn't be an underdog vs Duke, I'm saying that results should be included with statistics.

    Also, at what point would he stop voting for Duke? Even if they lose 4 more games I think you could argue that they'd still be favored in Vegas vs the field.

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    Predictive analytics or not, it must be pointed out that single game results are paramount in college basketball. Just ask anyone who has ever watched the NCAA tournament!!

    Gonzaga beat Duke!

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    Statistics. All I can say is that Duke has no wins on a Tuesday 2:45pm game time, 71 degrees inside in front of a road opponent crowd of 7,539 yelling at 110 decibels, and a chilly 37 degrees outside with a 3mph southeasterly wind. And NO wins when the opponent (Gonzaga) scored more points in the game.
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    Are analytics like Kenpom valid yet with so little data? Until schooled differently, I would appreciate this guy's approach better later on in the season.

    I also think you should actually reward actual wins and losses. Beating the #1 team should count for something, especially when you are already ranked very highly prior to the win.

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    So Mr. Flaherty, if you're using "predictive metrics" what is your prediction of Duke vs GU when Gonzaga gets their highest returning scorer from last year back in the lineup?

    Agree with zaglaw; he's sticking with the metric that gives him the outcome he desires. But you know what? Millions of Chinese don't really care.
    But we don't play nobody.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robzagnut View Post
    You bet. Every team goes to Maui hoping for the best ranked opponents possible.
    Umm..... i'm not sure we're on the same page. I am asking do you think that Duke would play Auburn or Gonzaga as a regularly scheduled out of conference game? I have already posted there out of conference schedule several posts back

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    I emailed Mr. Newell and asked him if he could share his logic with me on his choice of choosing Duke as #1 even though they lost to GU. He kindly replied and sent me this article (Written by Kevin Flaherty) from the Devil's Den which I have included in this post.

    The AP voter who picked Duke No. 1 yet again
    BYKEVIN FLAHERTY Nov 26, 7:46 PM When the Associated Press Poll came out Monday, so came a new No. 1 in college basketball as Duke fell from the top spot.
    Except for one voter, who picked Duke as his No. 1 yet again, despite the Blue Devils’ 89-87 loss to Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational final.
    Kansas City Star writer Jesse Newell covers Kansas as a beat, though he’s one of the nation’s best writers at looking at the big picture through advanced metrics. And Newell told 247Sports that he liked to look at predictive rankings like Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom.com, or Bart Torvik’s BartTorvik.com. Newell said that “it’s OK for reasonable minds to disagree” on how to rank teams, but that he looked at, “in short-hand terms, who would Las Vegas have as a favorite if these two teams played at a neutral site.”
    There are two ways to rank teams, Newell said. First, people can simply rank the nation’s best teams. Second, they can rank the most deserving teams, focusing more on résumé. Newell prefers the first, as opposed to using the AP Poll as what Pomeroy referred to on a recent podcast as de facto college basketball standings.
    How does that relate to Newell picking Duke No. 1? For one thing, both KenPom and BartTorvik still have the Blue Devils tops in their formulas. For another, Newell believes that, at this point, Duke is the nation’s best team. He brought up Kansas losing both regular season matchups to Oklahoma State last year as an example of why head-to-head results shouldn’t be treated as gospel.
    “Was Oklahoma State a better team than Kansas? I don’t think anybody would say that,” Newell said. “But they won those head-to-head games.
    “If Duke and Gonzaga were to play in Maui 100 times, I think Duke would win more than Gonzaga would,” Newell said. “That can be a weird way for somebody to wrap their minds around. But if you look at predictive metrics, if they played again tomorrow, Duke would still be favored.”
    Newell also pointed out the low margin of victory for Gonzaga, and how Kansas needed overtime to overcome Tennessee. Both were airtight games down the stretch where a bounce one way or the other and Duke maintains its No. 1 ranking and Kansas pay drop out of the top five.
    “Look at all three of Duke’s results from last week: Duke blew out a top 75 type team, handled a top 10 team and then lost to a team many now consider the best by two points, all on a neutral court,” Newell said. “All that matters. Look at KU and Duke: One won a close game, one lost a close game. Sometimes in basketball games, those little margins are out of your control. Tennessee would have loved it if its best player, Grant Williams, hadn’t fouled out and was there for the end of the game and overtime. Kansas would have loved to have Udoka Azubuike. There was a goaltending that wasn’t called that would have given Kansas two points [that could have avoided OT altogether].”
    Those close games meant that Newell “still feel[s] basically the same way about those teams.”
    “Last week, people were talking about Duke being able to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers,” Newell said. “And then this week, because they lost by two points, they’re not the best team in college basketball?
    “My opinion doesn’t change that much unless there’s a drastic result,” Newell said. “Losing to Gonzaga on a neutral court didn’t ding Duke very much; it didn’t fall at all in those predictive metrics. Duke is still No. 1 in both KenPom and BartTorvik.”
    Newell said the biggest complaint that he gets for his approach is that results don’t matter — wins and losses aren’t a component of KenPom or BartTorvik’s formula.
    “But that’s the exact opposite of what I’m doing here,” Newell said. “People want to rank based on wins or losses, but these formulas look at every single possession. Had Duke lost by 30, that would be reflected [in the metrics]. It didn’t. They lost by two.”
    Newell added that he wasn’t taking his approach to be controversial.

    “If you look at my social media mentions, this hasn’t been a fun day,” Newell said, laughing. “I’m really not trying to ruffle feathers with this; I believe in this. I believe Duke is the best team right now when you combine everything and look at the best numbers, they reflect my point. That’s truly what I believe.”



    I found his argument to be valid according to the metrics he mentioned...I've not seen either of those metrics nor I don't believe anyone on this site has posted them.

    Zags are going to have an incredible season and I'll enjoy watching each and every game they play and hopefully, they will win all of them...lol
    But using that logic, or lack there of he is literally diminishing what actually took place on the court itself. Duke lost. Actual results must take precedence over analytic opinion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Umm..... i'm not sure we're on the same page. I am asking do you think that Duke would play Auburn or Gonzaga as a regularly scheduled out of conference game? I have already posted there out of conference schedule several posts back
    Sure we are. For months and months GU fans were hoping to play Arizona and Duke in Maui, so it would reflect on their out of conference records. You don't think Arizona, Auburn and Duke were hoping for the same things? No team signs up for these tournaments hoping to play Hawaii, Southern Texas, Idaho etc. Duke SCHEDULED the tournament and played two Top 10 teams. Give Koach K some credit. He's not Randy Bennett or Lorenzo Romar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    I would like to know which person in the AP poll voted Duke #1...I could see justification for that person voting KU #1 but Duke lost to GU!

    If anyone finds out then please PM me...Thanks
    It's like in D.C. people vote for a "party" even if it's wrong.

    Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by 23dpg View Post
    I understand what he's saying but simply disagree with it. If you look at the breadth of the Gonzaga-Duke game, the Zags outplayed Duke for the first 30 minutes. Duke's run coincided with Brandon Clarke going out of the game with his 4th foul. I'm not arguing that Gonzaga wouldn't be an underdog vs Duke, I'm saying that results should be included with statistics.

    Also, at what point would he stop voting for Duke? Even if they lose 4 more games I think you could argue that they'd still be favored in Vegas vs the field.
    Yes! why do we keep hearing about how close the game was at the end and not how Duke lead for less than 1 minute of the game and Gonzaga lead for apx 39 minutes by as much as 16 points. Gonzaga controlled that game and that should count for something.
    It's not the size of the Bulldog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the Bulldog!

    GO ZAGS!!!

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    This discussion would have some teeth if he were on the selection committee.
    Krozman
    GU student 1996-2000
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    Congrats Zags! You guys really earned it

    Nice to see the gap widen. I few more voters must be watching the Zags.

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    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    Predictive analytics or not, it must be pointed out that single game results are paramount in college basketball. Just ask anyone who has ever watched the NCAA tournament!!

    Gonzaga beat Duke!
    One thing nobody seems to bring up is that with Duke missing it's last 7 shots and with GU missing it last 4 free throws, GU really beat the crap out of Duke for the majority of the game. 17 point lead we gave up at the end but we really handled Duke for the majority of the game. Shocked me how easily the kids did that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by krozman View Post
    This discussion would have some teeth if he were on the selection committee.
    Exactly, I could care less how one individual votes.....it is not as if he is having any effect on the rankings...

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    Don't forget that Jim Walden (former head coach at WSU) in 2006 was the only voter to have Florida at #1; the other 112 #1 votes went to Ohio State. Florida handily defeated Ohio State 41–14 in the BCS National Championship Game on January 8, 2007.

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    I think we are being too hard on Mr. Newell. I suppose the argument rests on whether the rankings are for now, or for potential this season. The people who rank MacDonalds boys, and 5 star, 4 star ratings make some mistakes, but are certainly in the ball park most of the time.
    Mr. Newell, I assume, ranks teams on who he thinks are the best this season or who will do the best in NCAA tournament. Not right now.
    Maybe that is out of line, maybe he is expected to vote on #1 right now. If I had to vote right now it would be the zags, because we beat Duke.
    However, here are some reasons to vote Duke for the season:
    Four of the starters were Frosh, each having played only 5 Division one games in their lives. Six games ago for them, it was a high school game. Compared to any of the zags, who have scores of D1 games under their belt.
    Also many of the zags are used to playing with each other under pressure, Zack N., Cory K. Josh P, Rui. Although Brandon Clarke had only 5 games playing with these guys, he did have year of playing with them, under the Few system, by practicing with the team all last year. This factor is nill with Duke.
    Also I felt if that game had gone five more minutes Duke would have won. That is one person's opinion. A lot of people who would have agreed with me right after the end of the game would probably not agree with it now. Fair enough.
    Also there is the size, high school skill set, and athleticism of Duke's horses. Who have we had that was ranked 5 star? Zach Collins in the only one I know for sure. These players might have had that ranking with one ranking organization, but not all: Perkins, Austin D., and probably Micah D. and Nigel W. Goss their first year out of high school. I know, my biggest bragging point with my beloved zags this year is how well have done the one time we had a five star recruit, and what happened? National Championship game. This is testimony to Few, his coaches, and the system we have. However, the topic here is horses on this line. Duke has 3 of the top 5 recruits in the nation on one team. Who can deny their potential? It is just as reasonable that Duke will have as good a chance at the Championship this year as we have.
    Also there is the question of organizing great talent. Who is tasked with the job of putting these horses together into a team that will gel eventually? None other than Coach K. Few says he has modeled our program considerably on Duke's program, and the credit for that goes to Duke's coach, undeniably one of the top coaches in the nation - he will make a lot of progress with that crew. I know that one year Calipari went to the NIT post season, and he had 5 star recruits, so that can happen. But it is notable for its exception to the rule.
    Also there is the eye test. Have you ever watched us get on the court with a team that was considerably shorter? Like many of the WCC teams. That is what I saw when we got on the floor with Duke. They must have three starters taller than any of our starters, and they move like 7 foot members of the cat family. Very coordinated for men of that size.

    Even though I wish Newell had voted the zags highest, he has guts, and I believe his vote was seriously considered. How many games would Alabama have to lose before you would not bet on them for the national championship in football this year? But that is not all, our Rui is breaking out now, like it took Ammo a few years. Those Duke freshman are in the same conversation already as Rui. I am saying that maybe we have been too hard on Mr. Newell. If Duke dances higher than we do in March, I will consider that he was right, and this board is wrong.

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