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Thread: Prediction Results 18-19

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    LIZF, If you can an easily determine it, who is the most accurate poster based on game predictions? If its to hard or time consuming don't bother. I'm just curious. Thanks!
    `
    I'll do that tonight when I do that results from the prior game. Sorry... totally slipped my mind yesterday.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  2. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    `
    I'll do that tonight when I do that results from the prior game. Sorry... totally slipped my mind yesterday.

    Thanks Man!

  3. #203
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    Sorry... Sunday got away from me... tbh... totally spaced on needing to do this.

    Zags win over Baylor 83-71!

    OK... I knew this one was going to be a good one as I did the data entry. But man... the actual lowest average score ever. Average score was 19.6667... the only time we have collectively broken 20 points. Impressive!

    As always... let us break it down... we "overshot" the Zags by 1.22 and undershot Baylor by... get this.... 0.0444. Spread of course is off by a mere 1.3111

    Here are the means:

    Zags 84.2222
    Baylor 70.9556
    Spread 13.3111

    PERFECTION!!! Radbooks gets the win with a perfect score! Second goes to Zaga on tie breaker (with same score it goes to first to post). Third goes to spike_jr.

    Honorable mentions are numerous... under 20 club is in order of score rank with all tie breaks taken into account: CdAZagFan,DixieZag,Stache,BigBlahla,willandi,Bartr uff1,GU69,All Weather Fan,White lightning,Zags11,Snowkane,Stevet75,Sarenyon,Zag_Da d,23dpg,rennis,jim77,BayAreaZagFan,Kitzbuel,RenoZa g,Bocco

    Here are the full standings for the Baylor game:


    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 Radbooks 83 71 12 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Zaga 83 70 13 0 1 1 0 3
    3 spike_jr 83 70 13 0 1 1 0 3
    4 CdAZagFan 84 70 14 1 1 2 0 6
    5 DixieZag 82 72 10 1 1 2 0 6
    6 Stache 84 70 14 1 1 2 0 6
    7 BigBlahla 85 71 14 2 0 2 0 6
    8 willandi 85 70 15 2 1 3 0 9
    9 Bartruff1 85 70 15 2 1 3 0 9
    10 GU69 85 70 15 2 1 3 0 9
    11 All Weather Fan 81 72 9 2 1 3 0 9
    12 White lightning 82 68 14 1 3 2 0 10
    13 Zags11 84 74 10 1 3 2 0 10
    14 Snowkane 85 69 16 2 2 4 0 12
    15 Stevet75 79 71 8 4 0 4 0 12
    16 Sarenyon 82 67 15 1 4 3 0 13
    17 Zag_Dad 81 67 14 2 4 2 0 14
    18 23dpg 87 73 14 4 2 2 0 14
    19 rennis 84 67 17 1 4 5 0 15
    20 jim77 87 74 13 4 3 1 0 15
    21 BayAreaZagFan 88 71 17 5 0 5 0 15
    22 Kitzbuel 88 73 15 5 2 3 0 17
    23 RenoZag 81 75 6 2 4 6 0 18
    24 Bocco 82 65 17 1 6 5 0 19
    25 amaronizag 84 65 19 1 6 7 0 21
    26 Mr. Vulture 90 71 19 7 0 7 0 21
    27 BogoZags 76 70 6 7 1 6 0 22
    28 TexasZagFan 88 77 11 5 6 1 0 23
    29 Reborn 83 63 20 0 8 8 0 24
    30 JPW314159 85 65 20 2 6 8 0 24
    31 ZagsGoZags 81 77 4 2 6 8 0 24
    32 LongIslandZagFan 88 68 20 5 3 8 0 24
    33 ZagzKrak 89 69 20 6 2 8 0 24
    34 Zag67 90 70 20 7 1 8 0 24
    35 Thespywhozaggedme 82 63 19 1 8 7 0 25
    36 WenatcheeZag 87 78 9 4 7 3 0 25
    37 Knotsolucky 87 79 8 4 8 4 0 28
    38 GoshZagit 74 72 2 9 1 10 0 30
    39 upan8th 74 73 1 9 2 11 0 33
    40 MJ777 89 82 7 6 11 5 0 39
    41 Zagger 90 65 25 7 6 13 0 39
    42 former1dog 95 70 25 12 1 13 0 39
    43 Hoopaholic 76 60 16 7 11 4 0 40
    44 B Wayne 78 79 1 5 8 11 10 47
    45 Martin Center Mad Man 94 87 7 11 16 5 0 59

    Errors/Omissions please let me know!
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  4. #204
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    Going back to F1Ds question... who is most accurate? Well two ways of looking at it... we could go by rank or by average score (note minimum of 8 games predicted which is roughly a quarter of the games).

    Here is the top 10 in rank:

    User Average Rank Games predicted
    FlyZag 16.625 8
    GU69 17.4688 32
    Zag_Dad 18.6667 21
    JPW314159 18.7143 35
    amaronizag 19.1176 34
    spike_jr 19.4483 29
    gueastcoast 19.8182 11
    LongIslandZagFan 20.2424 33
    BigBlahla 20.2941 34
    WenatcheeZag 20.8286 35

    Here is the top 10 based on average score:

    User Average Score Games predicted
    Zag_Dad 39.7619 21
    Zagricultural 43.4545 11
    GU69 45.3125 32
    gueastcoast 47.2727 11
    caldwellzag 47.5 8
    Zagregious 47.5 12
    JPW314159 47.9429 35
    GonzaGAW 48 17
    BigBlahla 48.1765 34
    amaronizag 48.3235 34


    Just looking at the ones in both top 10s... you'd have tops being Zag_Dad followed really closely by GU69... borders on a toss up between the two (note I am adding top 10 ranks of the two methodologies and I am only including people on both top 10s). From there it is a tie between gueastcoast and JPW314159... then amaronizag... and then BigBlahla.

    Gotta think that remaining games are going to be the deciding factor.

    For the record... being a data guy... this stuff is pretty easy.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  5. #205
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    If you review the predictions, I changed my prediction later on to an 11 point victory for Gonzaga 77-66, Thought you'd like to know. Thanks for all you do,

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  6. #206
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    - thx for the year to date top 10 lists, that must be a ton of work on your part, even with a computer to help out.

    - looks like zag dad is our top dog, 2 years running.


    - with big kudos to gu69, gueastcoaust, jpw, bigblahla and amaronizag, who are double top 10 finishers.

    - of course we have maybe another 4 games.

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    If you review the predictions, I changed my prediction later on to an 11 point victory for Gonzaga 77-66, Thought you'd like to know. Thanks for all you do,

    Go Zags!!!
    Must have missed the change. I'll fix the data
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  8. #208
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    Thanks for doing this LongIsland!! It was pretty cool when I was watching the game to know I had a chance to win.
    “When I get a little money I buy books; and if any is left I buy food and clothes.”

    ~ Desiderius Erasmus

  9. #209
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    Thank you LIZF for coordinating this fun challenge. It always adds a little more intrigue to the games. Kinda like fantasy football though .. there are times where I find myself hoping one of our late three doesn't fall so that my prediction is safe

    GO ZAGS!

  10. #210
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    Knee deep in beer/brewery/business stuff after the game... here just long enough to say results tomorrow night (maybe in the morning if I feel particularly ambitious).
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  11. #211
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    Zags win over FSU 72-58

    Thanks so much for the patience folks. Promise to have TT results up sooner... I am brewing tomorrow, so if I don't get it done tonight then it would be Monday which is why I am going to get on the data entry today.

    OK... with housekeeping out of the way... lets look at numbers. That was about a typical game for us for the season. Average score was 49.4375

    Lets break that down some.

    We overshot the Zags by 6.79 and overshot FSU by 13.85. Spread we came up short by 5.69

    Here are the means:

    Zags 78.7917
    FSU 71.8542
    Spread 8.3125

    REBORN FOR THE WIN!!!! Being so close on the spread was the key for him. Zaga took second on tie breaks and Martin Center Mad Man came in third. Sorry, no sub-20s at all so no Honorable Mentions this time out.

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 Reborn 77 63 14 5 5 0 0 20
    2 Zaga 72 65 7 0 7 7 0 21
    3 Martin Center Mad Man 67 60 7 5 2 7 0 21
    4 Zagger 80 60 20 8 2 6 0 26
    5 Bartruff1 75 67 8 3 9 6 0 30
    6 Hoopaholic 78 66 12 6 8 2 0 30
    7 TacomaZAG 74 68 6 2 10 8 0 32
    8 GonzagaFan62 80 66 14 8 8 0 0 32
    9 Kong-Kool-Aid 80 66 14 8 8 0 0 32
    10 LongIslandZagFan 75 68 7 3 10 7 0 33
    11 gueastcoast 75 68 7 3 10 7 0 33
    12 DixieZag 75 70 5 3 12 9 0 39
    13 ZagsGoZags 68 67 1 4 9 13 0 39
    14 Mr. Vulture 81 68 13 9 10 1 0 39
    15 23dpg 82 67 15 10 9 1 0 39
    16 Stevet75 79 70 9 7 12 5 0 43
    17 upan8th 74 72 2 2 14 12 0 44
    18 amaronizag 80 70 10 8 12 4 0 44
    19 GU69 80 70 10 8 12 4 0 44
    20 Bocco 78 71 7 6 13 7 0 45
    21 spike_jr 78 71 7 6 13 7 0 45
    22 rennis 81 70 11 9 12 3 0 45
    23 Zag67 84 67 17 12 9 3 0 45
    24 CdAZagFan 84 68 16 12 10 2 0 46
    25 BigBlahla 77 72 5 5 14 9 0 47
    26 Kitzbuel 79 72 7 7 14 7 0 49
    27 Radbooks 79 72 7 7 14 7 0 49
    28 SwainZag 80 72 8 8 14 6 0 50
    29 JPW314159 83 71 12 11 13 2 0 50
    30 BayAreaZagFan 78 73 5 6 15 9 0 51
    31 MJ777 76 74 2 4 16 12 0 52
    32 Zagregious 84 72 12 12 14 2 0 54
    33 White lightning 79 74 5 7 16 9 0 55
    34 Stache 81 74 7 9 16 7 0 57
    35 raise the zag 77 76 1 5 18 13 0 59
    36 RenoZag 77 76 1 5 18 13 0 59
    37 FuManShoes 70 78 8 2 20 6 10 60
    38 titopoet 83 76 7 11 18 7 0 65
    39 Zags11 74 81 7 2 23 7 10 67
    40 WenatcheeZag 83 77 6 11 19 8 0 68
    41 Thespywhozaggedme 75 82 7 3 24 7 10 71
    42 Hilltoppernole 76 81 5 4 23 9 10 73
    43 GrizZag 85 78 7 13 20 7 0 73
    44 BogoZags 76 82 6 4 24 8 10 74
    45 ZagzKrak 87 78 9 15 20 5 0 75
    46 willandi 85 79 6 13 21 8 0 76
    47 TexasZagFan 88 81 7 16 23 7 0 85
    48 former1dog 93 80 13 21 22 1 0 87


    Errors/Omissions.... you crazy kids know what to do.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  12. #212
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    Still waiting for you to make the change of my prediction for the Baylor game. Thanks!!!

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  13. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    Still waiting for you to make the change of my prediction for the Baylor game. Thanks!!!

    Go Zags!!!
    I made it... just not on the board... made it in the database itself. For the record, it moved you down one slot.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  14. #214
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    OK... officially done mourning Saturday's game. Have a meeting with our accountant tonight... but will finish up data entry and get results up tonight.

    I'll do a post season review after NC game... then we can discuss changes to scoring for next year.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  15. #215
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    Ugh... Now excel is fighting me... won't open. Sorry one more small delay.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  16. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Ugh... Now excel is fighting me... won't open. Sorry one more small delay.
    Keep me posted on the progress of your brewery...I'll make a trip to NY to stock up if you can't ship to Texas. My state is a PITA to ship alcohol to. I was shocked when I discovered a couple of years ago that my favorite winery in Germany shipped to Texas.

  17. #217
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    Yay!!! Finally got Excel, actually all of MS Office, to work again this morning... which is good because my wife was NOT a happy camper about it. Will finish up data entry tonight and finally put this to bed.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  18. #218
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    Thank you so much for being patient with me all season long whenever life interrupted this. Most especially, thanks for waiting through both my mourning of the season end and technical glitches.

    Sadly, we all know Zags lost 75-69.

    We did slightly better than the overall season average (52.96) with an average score of 46.8980.

    Lets break it down one last time...

    We overshot the Zags 3.43. The real score killer was us undershooting Texas Tech by 11.47. Spread was close though over by 2.898

    Here are the means:

    Zags 72.4286
    TTech 63.5306
    Spread 8.8980

    Winner for the last game of the season is FuManShoes. We'll call 2nd and 3rd a straight tie between GU69 and Mr. Vulture. No honorable mentions this time out.

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 FuManShoes 71 67 4 2 8 2 10 32
    2 GU69 70 65 5 1 10 1 10 33
    2 Mr. Vulture 70 65 5 1 10 1 10 33
    4 All Weather Fan 72 67 5 3 8 1 10 33
    5 White lightning 75 70 5 6 5 1 10 33
    6 Alum08 70 64 6 1 11 0 10 34
    7 23dpg 71 65 6 2 10 0 10 34
    8 DixieZag 72 66 6 3 9 0 10 34
    9 amaronizag 74 68 6 5 7 0 10 34
    10 WenatcheeZag 74 68 6 5 7 0 10 34
    11 Bocco 72 65 7 3 10 1 10 37
    12 TexasZagFan 72 65 7 3 10 1 10 37
    13 Kitzbuel 68 62 6 1 13 0 10 38
    14 Ladyzag12 68 62 6 1 13 0 10 38
    15 Stevet75 69 61 8 0 14 2 10 40
    16 Bartruff1 70 62 8 1 13 2 10 40
    17 spike_jr 70 62 8 1 13 2 10 40
    18 zagsfanforlife 70 62 8 1 13 2 10 40
    19 Radbooks 71 63 8 2 12 2 10 40
    20 Kong-Kool-Aid 73 65 8 4 10 2 10 40
    21 JPW314159 75 67 8 6 8 2 10 40
    22 upan8th 66 65 1 3 10 5 10 41
    23 ZagsGoZags 66 63 3 3 12 3 10 43
    24 LongIslandZagFan 68 60 8 1 15 2 10 44
    25 BayAreaZagFan 66 60 6 3 15 0 10 46
    26 SwainZag 73 63 10 4 12 4 10 46
    27 MTZag03 80 70 10 11 5 4 10 46
    28 former1dog 70 59 11 1 16 5 10 49
    29 demian 65 60 5 4 15 1 10 49
    30 RenoZag 64 63 1 5 12 5 10 49
    31 rennis 75 64 11 6 11 5 10 49
    32 CdAZagFan 76 65 11 7 10 5 10 49
    33 Reborn 77 66 11 8 9 5 10 49
    34 MJ777 79 68 11 10 7 5 10 49
    35 Thespywhozaggedme 79 68 11 10 7 5 10 49
    36 Martin Center Mad Man 70 58 12 1 17 6 10 52
    37 gueastcoast 71 59 12 2 16 6 10 52
    38 Stache 76 64 12 7 11 6 10 52
    39 GonzagaFan62 71 58 13 2 17 7 10 55
    40 Zaga 81 68 13 12 7 7 10 55
    41 Zags11 68 56 12 1 19 6 10 56
    42 therunner 62 60 2 7 15 4 10 58
    43 raise the zag 61 60 1 8 15 5 10 61
    44 ZagzKrak 77 61 16 8 14 10 10 64
    45 willandi 85 68 17 16 7 11 10 67
    46 Zagregious 86 68 18 17 7 12 10 70
    47 strikenowhere 75 55 20 6 20 14 10 76
    48 Zagger 75 55 20 6 20 14 10 76
    49 Zagceo 90 68 22 21 7 16 10 82

    Errors/Omissions as always let me know. Thanks again for all of your patience. I will post some season results on Wednesday. Then we can discuss scoring changes for next season
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  19. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    The real score killer was us undershooting Texas Tech by 11.47.

    It was for the Zags as well.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

    ________________________________



    Foo Time

  20. #220

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    Thanks LZF for all of your efforts. This was my first year jumping in on the "throw a dart / highly educated guess" prediction thread.

    Boy what an eye opener when it comes to thinking one knows their team vs opponents.

    Along with having a great team to root for we have awesome contributors to make this forum special !!!

    Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

  21. #221
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    I appreciate all the thanks. The reality is someone asked, I try my best to deliver. At heart I am a data guy... so I liked the challenge. Weird to think I have three season (113 or so games) of predictions.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  22. #222
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    thanks for doing this Liz, its one my favorite rituals before a game: try to produce a prediction

  23. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I appreciate all the thanks. The reality is someone asked, I try my best to deliver. At heart I am a data guy... so I liked the challenge. Weird to think I have three season (113 or so games) of predictions.
    Yep - Thanks! I did rather poorly this season though - but the Zags surely did not

    One of my next season's outlandish predictions will be to end up in the top 10 predictors at the end of the season

    I like these prediction challenges. Makes one pay more attention to the Zags and their competition. This season was a bit different than previous seasons in the large score differentials. When the Zags average beating teams by 20+ points ..... it, for me, gets much more challenging to predict. I suppose that is good though as it also makes it more challenging for teams that played the recent Zags to figure out how to stop them - or at least slow them down. St Mary's succeeded in that - and also TTU. I'll predict now that it be quite a while before there is another season like this one with the large score discrepancies. That does not mean I think the Zags will have any less of a winning season - just not by so many points.

    And thanks also to the roughly 50 Zag fans who participated in the predictions throughout the season The more the merrier
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

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