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Thread: Prediction Results 18-19

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  1. #1
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    Default Prediction Results 18-19

    OK... Going to take a bit for me to shake the cobwebs out as I moved to a new machine since last year and experienced a hard drive failure before old spreadsheet got copied over. Rebuilding them tonight and going to try and make it more efficient for myself. Last couple seasons were a bit convoluted for me as the sheet just kind of evolved. Now I have a chance to clean it up for myself.

    Should have results up tomorrow night.

    Scoring this year is as follows:
    Zag Delta *2 + Opp Delta *2 + Spread Delta + Wrong winner penalty (+10 if wrong)

    Lowest score wins.

    With ties (only done for top 3) tie breaks are as follows:
    1. Zag Delta
    2. Opp Delta
    3. Spread Delta

    If two people predict the same score then the first to post it takes tie break goes to first to post.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Whew... OK... took me longer than expected... but finally got all the kinks out.

    Going to be real here... we collectively did horrible. Gonna chalk it up to shaking the cobwebs... like the Zags did in the first half.

    Severely undershot Zag score by 22 and change. Off on Idaho State by 14. Spread we were only off by a touch under 9.


    Zags 97.8444
    Idaho State 65.1778
    Spread 32.6667


    With that... our winner... with 62 points is Martin Center Mad Man. NotoriousZ got second and by virtue of posting it first, Sarenyon gets third.

    Congrats.

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 Martin Center Mad Man 101 80 21 19 1 22 0 62
    2 NotoriousZ 110 72 38 10 7 31 0 65
    3 Sarenyon 103 74 29 17 5 24 0 68
    4 23dpg 103 74 29 17 5 24 0 68
    5 GonzagaFan62 102 72 30 18 7 23 0 73
    6 JPW314159 101 71 30 19 8 22 0 76
    7 ProVeeZag 94 74 20 26 5 15 0 77
    8 WenatcheeZag 102 69 33 18 10 23 0 79
    9 ZagsGoZags 97 71 26 23 8 18 0 80
    10 upan8th 101 68 33 19 11 22 0 82
    11 LongIslandZagFan 105 65 40 15 14 26 0 84
    12 BogoZags 103 66 37 17 13 24 0 84
    13 Zags67 101 67 34 19 12 22 0 84
    14 Zags11 99 68 31 21 11 20 0 84
    15 Kitzbuel 95 70 25 25 9 16 0 84
    16 Radbooks 98 67 31 22 12 19 0 87
    17 Zag_Dad 96 68 28 24 11 17 0 87
    18 spike_jr 96 68 28 24 11 17 0 87
    19 Zaga 92 70 22 28 9 13 0 87
    20 amaronizag 100 65 35 20 14 21 0 89
    21 GrizZag 94 68 26 26 11 15 0 89
    22 TexasZagFan 105 62 43 15 17 26 0 90
    23 TravelinZag 102 63 39 18 16 23 0 91
    24 CdAZagFan 96 66 30 24 13 17 0 91
    25 Reborn 93 67 26 27 12 14 0 92
    26 Hoopaholic 96 65 31 24 14 17 0 93
    27 BayAreaZagFan 104 60 44 16 19 25 0 95
    28 Stache 96 64 32 24 15 17 0 95
    29 Psychozag 99 62 37 21 17 20 0 96
    30 RenoZag 91 66 25 29 13 12 0 96
    31 Zagger 100 60 40 20 19 21 0 99
    32 willandi 90 65 25 30 14 11 0 99
    33 irishzag_09 95 67 28 25 12 16 0 90
    34 BigBlahla 95 62 33 25 17 16 0 100
    35 All Weather Fan 91 68 23 29 11 12 0 92
    36 Bartruff1 95 60 35 25 19 16 0 104
    37 DixieZag 100 57 43 20 22 21 0 105
    38 Zagricultural 101 56 45 19 23 22 0 106
    39 Maynard G Krebs 95 59 36 25 20 16 0 106
    40 ZagzKrak 103 54 49 17 25 24 0 108
    41 ZigZagger 96 57 39 24 22 17 0 109
    42 gbnyba17 97 61 36 23 18 18 0 100
    43 tummydoc 95 56 39 25 23 16 10 122
    44 Akzag 90 54 36 30 25 11 10 131
    45 Zagceo 85 55 30 35 24 6 10 134
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  3. #3
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    LIFZ, thanks for doing this again. It’s entertaining to follow as the year goes on.
    Would you mind explaining the scoring system again? To my untrained eyes it would appear that NotoriousZ came the closest to the correct score.
    He missed the Zags score by 10 vs MCMM 19, missed ISU’s score by 7 vs 1 and missed the margin of victory by just 3 vs 21.

    So I have Z with 20 off the actual score and MCMM 41 off. What am I missing?

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    Yea this is fun!
    Love the zags for life

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    Quote Originally Posted by 23dpg View Post
    LIFZ, thanks for doing this again. It’s entertaining to follow as the year goes on.
    Would you mind explaining the scoring system again? To my untrained eyes it would appear that NotoriousZ came the closest to the correct score.
    He missed the Zags score by 10 vs MCMM 19, missed ISU’s score by 7 vs 1 and missed the margin of victory by just 3 vs 21.

    So I have Z with 20 off the actual score and MCMM 41 off. What am I missing?
    It is actually in the first post. But MCMM was more precise on one of the two scores (off by one). The actual scores carry more weight than the spread.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    LI, I wonder if the spread delta is working correctly (at least for my score). The Zags won by 41, and my 38 point spread should have been 3, yes?
    It's peanut butter jelly time!

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    Top 5
    21 Straight Big Dances

    11 Straight Round of 32s

    10 Sweet Sixteens (5 Straight)

    4 Elite Eights

    2017 FINAL FOUR

    2 Winningest Players in college basketball history (Karnowski 137, Perkins 134)

    The Best Point Guard to ever play the game: John Stockton, most assists, most steals.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by NotoriousZ View Post
    LI, I wonder if the spread delta is working correctly (at least for my score). The Zags won by 41, and my 38 point spread should have been 3, yes?
    Hmmm... let me check the spreadsheet when I get home tonight. Think you are right... that looks off. Ahhh... the pains of having to rebuild stuff from scratch.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    It is actually in the first post. But MCMM was more precise on one of the two scores (off by one). The actual scores carry more weight than the spread.

    This seems to be the key. The winning score had a spread of 21, even though the spread turned out to be 41.

    I had 100 as the winning score, and a spread of 43; I thought I was going to be golden, but ended up carrying up the rear bc I was so off on the total points scored by ISU.

    It "feels" to me like a person who picked a 40 plus spread and a winning score in triple figures should be closer to someone who picked a 21 point spread, but I see the point in having the losing team's score closer.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DixieZag View Post
    This seems to be the key. The winning score had a spread of 21, even though the spread turned out to be 41.

    I had 100 as the winning score, and a spread of 43; I thought I was going to be golden, but ended up carrying up the rear bc I was so off on the total points scored by ISU.

    It "feels" to me like a person who picked a 40 plus spread and a winning score in triple figures should be closer to someone who picked a 21 point spread, but I see the point in having the losing team's score closer.
    Honestly, when everyone is so off... it adds a weird dynamic to the scoring. If people had been more precise it would have made more sense. Remember... every point off on either the Zag or oppent score... you gain 2 points. Spread points are 1. We are trying to reward precision on both those score numbers.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    +1

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    +2 Thanks again and have a happy holidays

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    Double ditto what Stevet said. Screw the scores. MAKE MORE BEER! Best of the season from all us pathetic prognosticators.

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    Pick it up LIFZ! We pay good money for this!

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    Quote Originally Posted by 23dpg View Post
    Pick it up LIFZ! We pay good money for this!
    LOL, damn straight. So I've had 2 top 3 finishers this year...wow, not sure Ripley's would believe it.

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    OK... still need to do data entry for Denver game... BUUUUUUT got UTA game in the books.

    Zags win 89-55

    Here we go...

    Believe it or not... collectively our best game since ND State... just marginally better than the Tennessee game. Average score for UTA was 54.3953 not stellar... but an improvement. Going to have to run the numbers at the end of OOC schedule... but thinkg we are running a smidge higher than last season at this time. Will let you know of the Xmas break.

    Lets dig deeper. We overshot the Zags collectively by 8.95 and overshot the Mavs by 13.8 (this one was the killer)... spread we missed my 4.5 and change.

    Here are the means:
    Zags 97.9535
    UTA 68.8140
    Spread 29.4651

    Our top three are the only ones sub-20... in first Stevet75 who nailed the Zags score and just barely overshot the Mavs. In second was 23dpg followed by my buddy TexasZagFan making another appearance in the top 3 again this season.

    Here are the full standings (light turnout...probably season and UNC depression related):

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 Stevet75 89 58 31 0 3 3 0 9
    2 23dpg 91 58 33 2 3 1 0 11
    3 TexasZagFan 92 60 32 3 5 2 0 18
    4 ProVeeZag 92 62 30 3 7 4 0 24
    5 TravelinZag 90 63 27 1 8 7 0 25
    6 Zagger 100 60 40 11 5 6 0 38
    7 Bartruff1 99 64 35 10 9 1 0 39
    8 willandi 101 59 42 12 4 8 0 40
    9 JPW314159 94 67 27 5 12 7 0 41
    10 All Weather Fan 94 68 26 5 13 8 0 44
    11 White lightning 101 63 38 12 8 4 0 44
    12 GrizZag 88 69 19 1 14 15 0 45
    13 BogoZags 102 64 38 13 9 4 0 48
    14 Kitzbuel 99 68 31 10 13 3 0 49
    15 ZagzKrak 102 65 37 13 10 3 0 49
    16 Reborn 103 63 40 14 8 6 0 50
    17 Mr. Vulture 95 70 25 6 15 9 0 51
    18 spike_jr 99 69 30 10 14 4 0 52
    19 WenatcheeZag 99 69 30 10 14 4 0 52
    20 Thespywhozaggedme 94 71 23 5 16 11 0 53
    21 77Zag 100 69 31 11 14 3 0 53
    22 ZagsGoZags 101 69 32 12 14 2 0 54
    23 rennis 94 72 22 5 17 12 0 56
    24 Psychozag 97 71 26 8 16 8 0 56
    25 Zags67 105 63 42 16 8 8 0 56
    26 Bocco 97 72 25 8 17 9 0 59
    27 Radbooks 101 71 30 12 16 4 0 60
    28 amaronizag 104 70 34 15 15 0 0 60
    29 BayAreaZagFan 104 70 34 15 15 0 0 60
    30 dazags 106 64 42 17 9 8 0 60
    31 GonzagasaurausFlex 87 74 13 2 19 21 0 63
    32 BigBlahla 102 72 30 13 17 4 0 64
    33 upan8th 106 68 38 17 13 4 0 64
    34 raise the zag 95 75 20 6 20 14 0 66
    35 RenoZag 85 74 11 4 19 23 0 69
    36 Sarenyon 97 76 21 8 21 13 0 71
    37 NotoriousZ 106 73 33 17 18 1 0 71
    38 Zags11 96 77 19 7 22 15 0 73
    39 Stache 101 76 25 12 21 9 0 75
    40 buenaparkzag 113 59 54 24 4 20 0 76
    41 CdAZagFan 100 78 22 11 23 12 0 80
    42 Zaga 103 81 22 14 26 12 0 92
    43 LongIslandZagFan 88 95 7 1 40 27 10 119


    As always... missing scores... messed up scores... give me a holler.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    I can't believe I even posted in the BYU prediction thread and forgot to post my score prediction! Mind is the first thing to go I guess.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    I can't believe I even posted in the BYU prediction thread and forgot to post my score prediction! Mind is the first thing to go I guess.

    Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk
    A waist is a terrible thing to mind!
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  19. #19
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    Zags win 85-69.

    You know, doing the data entry this AM (sorry went to a comedy club last night... followed the game on my phone) I was quite convinced we had outdone the BYU game. Alas, it wasn't to happen. Close though. Average score for this game was 44.3095

    Lets break it down. We over shot the Zags by 2.62. Not bad actually. What seems to be our sticking point this season is what the Zags D does. We undershot USD by 6.643. Spread, because we can't get a handle on the D was off by 13.26

    Here are the means:

    Zags 91.6190
    USD 62.3571
    Spread 26.2619

    Winner for the USD (home edition) game is my friend and fellow mod Reno. A single point off perfection. Well done! Second was 23dpg, who complained about his slump and proceeded to come in under 10 points (you might be better at predicting your slump ends... just sayin'). Third goes to TravelinZag. WallaWallaZag get on honorable mention for being sub-20 on the first ever prediction... congrats! Great way to start.

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 RenoZag 85 68 17 0 1 1 0 3
    2 23dpg 87 71 16 2 2 0 0 8
    3 TravelinZag 85 64 21 0 5 5 0 15
    4 WallaWallaZag 85 63 22 0 6 6 0 18
    5 Kitzbuel 89 65 24 4 4 8 0 24
    6 Psychozag 93 69 24 8 0 8 0 24
    7 rennis 88 63 25 3 6 9 0 27
    8 BigBlahla 89 64 25 4 5 9 0 27
    9 White lightning 92 67 25 7 2 9 0 27
    10 CdAZagFan 88 62 26 3 7 10 0 30
    11 zagray 89 63 26 4 6 10 0 30
    12 Radbooks 91 65 26 6 4 10 0 30
    13 77Zag 95 69 26 10 0 10 0 30
    14 upan8th 77 62 15 8 7 1 0 31
    15 WenatcheeZag 87 59 28 2 10 12 0 36
    16 LongIslandZagFan 94 66 28 9 3 12 0 36
    17 ZagsObserver 74 64 10 11 5 6 0 38
    18 spike_jr 91 62 29 6 7 13 0 39
    19 BayAreaZagFan 95 66 29 10 3 13 0 39
    20 Bocco 95 66 29 10 3 13 0 39
    21 Bartruff1 90 60 30 5 9 14 0 42
    22 GrizZag 93 81 12 8 12 4 0 44
    23 DixieZag 94 63 31 9 6 15 0 45
    24 amaronizag 92 60 32 7 9 16 0 48
    25 GU69 100 68 32 15 1 16 0 48
    26 ProVeeZag 91 58 33 6 11 17 0 51
    27 Stache 92 59 33 7 10 17 0 51
    28 Zag_Dad 92 59 33 7 10 17 0 51
    29 Zaga 98 65 33 13 4 17 0 51
    30 JPW314159 87 53 34 2 16 18 0 54
    31 Zags11 98 64 34 13 5 18 0 54
    32 Stevet75 99 65 34 14 4 18 0 54
    33 Hoopaholic 76 52 24 9 17 8 0 60
    34 willandi 97 61 36 12 8 20 0 60
    35 GonzaGAW 95 58 37 10 11 21 0 63
    36 ZagsGoZags 96 58 38 11 11 22 0 66
    37 Zags67 101 63 38 16 6 22 0 66
    38 Thespywhozaggedme 99 59 40 14 10 24 0 72
    39 TexasZagFan 98 57 41 13 12 25 0 75
    40 former1dog 85 42 43 0 27 27 0 81
    41 ZagzKrak 101 56 45 16 13 29 0 87
    42 Zagger 105 60 45 20 9 29 0 87

    Errors... omissions... give me a PM.

    Enjoy the Super Bowl tonight!

    GO ZAGS!
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  20. #20
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    At least I've got some quality folks in the last quartile with me! lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasZagFan View Post
    At least I've got some quality folks in the last quartile with me! lol
    Tex.... I have said many times... we all spend time in the cellar with this. Me included. You'd think with me looking at the numbers all the time that I'd have a better feel. Nope middle of the pack every single time... sometimes worse.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  22. #22

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    Thanks LZF for all of your efforts. This was my first year jumping in on the "throw a dart / highly educated guess" prediction thread.

    Boy what an eye opener when it comes to thinking one knows their team vs opponents.

    Along with having a great team to root for we have awesome contributors to make this forum special !!!

    Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

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    I appreciate all the thanks. The reality is someone asked, I try my best to deliver. At heart I am a data guy... so I liked the challenge. Weird to think I have three season (113 or so games) of predictions.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    thanks for doing this Liz, its one my favorite rituals before a game: try to produce a prediction

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I appreciate all the thanks. The reality is someone asked, I try my best to deliver. At heart I am a data guy... so I liked the challenge. Weird to think I have three season (113 or so games) of predictions.
    Yep - Thanks! I did rather poorly this season though - but the Zags surely did not

    One of my next season's outlandish predictions will be to end up in the top 10 predictors at the end of the season

    I like these prediction challenges. Makes one pay more attention to the Zags and their competition. This season was a bit different than previous seasons in the large score differentials. When the Zags average beating teams by 20+ points ..... it, for me, gets much more challenging to predict. I suppose that is good though as it also makes it more challenging for teams that played the recent Zags to figure out how to stop them - or at least slow them down. St Mary's succeeded in that - and also TTU. I'll predict now that it be quite a while before there is another season like this one with the large score discrepancies. That does not mean I think the Zags will have any less of a winning season - just not by so many points.

    And thanks also to the roughly 50 Zag fans who participated in the predictions throughout the season The more the merrier
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

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