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Thread: Prediction Results 18-19

  1. #1
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    Default Prediction Results 18-19

    OK... Going to take a bit for me to shake the cobwebs out as I moved to a new machine since last year and experienced a hard drive failure before old spreadsheet got copied over. Rebuilding them tonight and going to try and make it more efficient for myself. Last couple seasons were a bit convoluted for me as the sheet just kind of evolved. Now I have a chance to clean it up for myself.

    Should have results up tomorrow night.

    Scoring this year is as follows:
    Zag Delta *2 + Opp Delta *2 + Spread Delta + Wrong winner penalty (+10 if wrong)

    Lowest score wins.

    With ties (only done for top 3) tie breaks are as follows:
    1. Zag Delta
    2. Opp Delta
    3. Spread Delta

    If two people predict the same score then the first to post it takes tie break goes to first to post.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Whew... OK... took me longer than expected... but finally got all the kinks out.

    Going to be real here... we collectively did horrible. Gonna chalk it up to shaking the cobwebs... like the Zags did in the first half.

    Severely undershot Zag score by 22 and change. Off on Idaho State by 14. Spread we were only off by a touch under 9.


    Zags 97.8444
    Idaho State 65.1778
    Spread 32.6667


    With that... our winner... with 62 points is Martin Center Mad Man. NotoriousZ got second and by virtue of posting it first, Sarenyon gets third.

    Congrats.

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 Martin Center Mad Man 101 80 21 19 1 22 0 62
    2 NotoriousZ 110 72 38 10 7 31 0 65
    3 Sarenyon 103 74 29 17 5 24 0 68
    4 23dpg 103 74 29 17 5 24 0 68
    5 GonzagaFan62 102 72 30 18 7 23 0 73
    6 JPW314159 101 71 30 19 8 22 0 76
    7 ProVeeZag 94 74 20 26 5 15 0 77
    8 WenatcheeZag 102 69 33 18 10 23 0 79
    9 ZagsGoZags 97 71 26 23 8 18 0 80
    10 upan8th 101 68 33 19 11 22 0 82
    11 LongIslandZagFan 105 65 40 15 14 26 0 84
    12 BogoZags 103 66 37 17 13 24 0 84
    13 Zags67 101 67 34 19 12 22 0 84
    14 Zags11 99 68 31 21 11 20 0 84
    15 Kitzbuel 95 70 25 25 9 16 0 84
    16 Radbooks 98 67 31 22 12 19 0 87
    17 Zag_Dad 96 68 28 24 11 17 0 87
    18 spike_jr 96 68 28 24 11 17 0 87
    19 Zaga 92 70 22 28 9 13 0 87
    20 amaronizag 100 65 35 20 14 21 0 89
    21 GrizZag 94 68 26 26 11 15 0 89
    22 TexasZagFan 105 62 43 15 17 26 0 90
    23 TravelinZag 102 63 39 18 16 23 0 91
    24 CdAZagFan 96 66 30 24 13 17 0 91
    25 Reborn 93 67 26 27 12 14 0 92
    26 Hoopaholic 96 65 31 24 14 17 0 93
    27 BayAreaZagFan 104 60 44 16 19 25 0 95
    28 Stache 96 64 32 24 15 17 0 95
    29 Psychozag 99 62 37 21 17 20 0 96
    30 RenoZag 91 66 25 29 13 12 0 96
    31 Zagger 100 60 40 20 19 21 0 99
    32 willandi 90 65 25 30 14 11 0 99
    33 irishzag_09 95 67 28 25 12 16 0 90
    34 BigBlahla 95 62 33 25 17 16 0 100
    35 All Weather Fan 91 68 23 29 11 12 0 92
    36 Bartruff1 95 60 35 25 19 16 0 104
    37 DixieZag 100 57 43 20 22 21 0 105
    38 Zagricultural 101 56 45 19 23 22 0 106
    39 Maynard G Krebs 95 59 36 25 20 16 0 106
    40 ZagzKrak 103 54 49 17 25 24 0 108
    41 ZigZagger 96 57 39 24 22 17 0 109
    42 gbnyba17 97 61 36 23 18 18 0 100
    43 tummydoc 95 56 39 25 23 16 10 122
    44 Akzag 90 54 36 30 25 11 10 131
    45 Zagceo 85 55 30 35 24 6 10 134
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    LIFZ, thanks for doing this again. It’s entertaining to follow as the year goes on.
    Would you mind explaining the scoring system again? To my untrained eyes it would appear that NotoriousZ came the closest to the correct score.
    He missed the Zags score by 10 vs MCMM 19, missed ISU’s score by 7 vs 1 and missed the margin of victory by just 3 vs 21.

    So I have Z with 20 off the actual score and MCMM 41 off. What am I missing?

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    Yea this is fun!
    Love the zags for life

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    Quote Originally Posted by 23dpg View Post
    LIFZ, thanks for doing this again. It’s entertaining to follow as the year goes on.
    Would you mind explaining the scoring system again? To my untrained eyes it would appear that NotoriousZ came the closest to the correct score.
    He missed the Zags score by 10 vs MCMM 19, missed ISU’s score by 7 vs 1 and missed the margin of victory by just 3 vs 21.

    So I have Z with 20 off the actual score and MCMM 41 off. What am I missing?
    It is actually in the first post. But MCMM was more precise on one of the two scores (off by one). The actual scores carry more weight than the spread.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    LI, I wonder if the spread delta is working correctly (at least for my score). The Zags won by 41, and my 38 point spread should have been 3, yes?
    It's peanut butter jelly time!

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    Top 5
    21 Straight Big Dances

    11 Straight Round of 32s

    10 Sweet Sixteens (5 Straight)

    4 Elite Eights

    2017 FINAL FOUR

    2 Winningest Players in college basketball history (Karnowski 137, Perkins 134)

    The Best Point Guard to ever play the game: John Stockton, most assists, most steals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    It is actually in the first post. But MCMM was more precise on one of the two scores (off by one). The actual scores carry more weight than the spread.

    This seems to be the key. The winning score had a spread of 21, even though the spread turned out to be 41.

    I had 100 as the winning score, and a spread of 43; I thought I was going to be golden, but ended up carrying up the rear bc I was so off on the total points scored by ISU.

    It "feels" to me like a person who picked a 40 plus spread and a winning score in triple figures should be closer to someone who picked a 21 point spread, but I see the point in having the losing team's score closer.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DixieZag View Post
    This seems to be the key. The winning score had a spread of 21, even though the spread turned out to be 41.

    I had 100 as the winning score, and a spread of 43; I thought I was going to be golden, but ended up carrying up the rear bc I was so off on the total points scored by ISU.

    It "feels" to me like a person who picked a 40 plus spread and a winning score in triple figures should be closer to someone who picked a 21 point spread, but I see the point in having the losing team's score closer.
    Honestly, when everyone is so off... it adds a weird dynamic to the scoring. If people had been more precise it would have made more sense. Remember... every point off on either the Zag or oppent score... you gain 2 points. Spread points are 1. We are trying to reward precision on both those score numbers.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Quote Originally Posted by NotoriousZ View Post
    LI, I wonder if the spread delta is working correctly (at least for my score). The Zags won by 41, and my 38 point spread should have been 3, yes?
    Hmmm... let me check the spreadsheet when I get home tonight. Think you are right... that looks off. Ahhh... the pains of having to rebuild stuff from scratch.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Honestly, when everyone is so off... it adds a weird dynamic to the scoring. If people had been more precise it would have made more sense. Remember... every point off on either the Zag or oppent score... you gain 2 points. Spread points are 1. We are trying to reward precision on both those score numbers.
    I see your point totally, and please don't hear me to be complaining. I love what you're doing. It's all good, bro.

    Back when I thought about keeping track of who is doing well with predictions, I envisioned just sort of eyeballing it and giving a quick update. I did it almost as much to see who here really could predict well regularly, so I could pay more attention to those people. You've undertaken a great deal of effort to take it to a level that I would not have had the insight to do. I deeply appreciate you picking up the ball.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Hmmm... let me check the spreadsheet when I get home tonight. Think you are right... that looks off. Ahhh... the pains of having to rebuild stuff from scratch.
    I had assumed you were using a spreadsheet, but the 31 instead of 3 made me think perhaps you were doing all of these calculations by hand and made a typo. Good to know you’re not spending your whole day on this stuff, and I thank you in advance for the correction.
    It's peanut butter jelly time!

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    Quote Originally Posted by NotoriousZ View Post
    I had assumed you were using a spreadsheet, but the 31 instead of 3 made me think perhaps you were doing all of these calculations by hand and made a typo. Good to know you’re not spending your whole day on this stuff, and I thank you in advance for the correction.

    I was under the weather yesterday and should have pushed it off a day to be in better sorts as I rebuilt the spreadsheet.

    Only by hand work is entering scores... after that it is somewhat automated.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    It's great that you do this, and I appreciate it.

    But I agree with Dixie that the system is off. Doubling the # of variance from each score means that those scores are together weighted 4x more than spread.

    IMO a better way to do it would be a 1/1 ratio between spread and how far you are off on individual scores. I.e. instead of multiplying individual score variance by 2, divide them by 2.When someone misses the spread by 20, there's no way they should be the winner imo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by maynard g krebs View Post
    It's great that you do this, and I appreciate it.

    But I agree with Dixie that the system is off. Doubling the # of variance from each score means that those scores are together weighted 4x more than spread.

    IMO a better way to do it would be a 1/1 ratio between spread and how far you are off on individual scores. I.e. instead of multiplying individual score variance by 2, divide them by 2.When someone misses the spread by 20, there's no way they should be the winner imo.
    Wait until revised numbers go up. Spread delta was pointing to wrong column. New rankings coming shortly
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    OK... here we go... the rankings are now correct. As for concern with spread value... let me put it this way... someone could have put 81-40 and they'd have 0 on the spread delta... they should be rewarded for being grossly off on the scores. Emphasis is on gettting the scores right... spread will work itself out in that case... assuming one doesn't point to the wrong column on the spreadsheet. Look... I missed the spread by 1... but was grossly off on the other scores for this round. Just for the record... this is how it has been scored the last 2 seasons.

    With that house keeping out of the way...

    Look... we still sucked collectively... all but one prediction was scored at 56 points or higher. Not pretty.

    Means changed slightly due to me missing ZenZag who is now included... not enough to help the collective stinker though

    Means:
    Zags 97.8696
    ISU 65.1087
    Spread 32.7609

    New winner... NotoriousZ followed by Sarenyon on tiebreakers for second and then 23dpg

    Congrats. MCMM still in the top 5 though



    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 NotoriousZ 110 72 38 10 7 3 0 37
    2 Sarenyon 103 74 29 17 5 12 0 56
    3 23dpg 103 74 29 17 5 12 0 56
    4 LongIslandZagFan 105 65 40 15 14 1 0 59
    5 Martin Center Mad Man 101 80 21 19 1 20 0 60
    6 GonzagaFan62 102 72 30 18 7 11 0 61
    7 BogoZags 103 66 37 17 13 4 0 64
    8 WenatcheeZag 102 69 33 18 10 8 0 64
    9 JPW314159 101 71 30 19 8 11 0 65
    10 TexasZagFan 105 62 43 15 17 2 0 66
    11 upan8th 101 68 33 19 11 8 0 68
    12 Zags67 101 67 34 19 12 7 0 69
    13 TravelinZag 102 63 39 18 16 2 0 70
    14 BayAreaZagFan 104 60 44 16 19 3 0 73
    15 amaronizag 100 65 35 20 14 6 0 74
    16 Zags11 99 68 31 21 11 10 0 74
    17 ZagsGoZags 97 71 26 23 8 15 0 77
    18 Radbooks 98 67 31 22 12 10 0 78
    19 Zagger 100 60 40 20 19 1 0 79
    20 Psychozag 99 62 37 21 17 4 0 80
    21 ZenZag 99 62 37 21 17 4 0 80
    22 Zag_Dad 96 68 28 24 11 13 0 83
    23 spike_jr 96 68 28 24 11 13 0 83
    24 ProVeeZag 94 74 20 26 5 21 0 83
    25 Kitzbuel 95 70 25 25 9 16 0 84
    26 CdAZagFan 96 66 30 24 13 11 0 85
    27 DixieZag 100 57 43 20 22 2 0 86
    28 Hoopaholic 96 65 31 24 14 10 0 86
    29 gbnyba17 97 61 36 23 18 5 0 87
    30 Stache 96 64 32 24 15 9 0 87
    31 irishzag_09 95 67 28 25 12 13 0 87
    32 Zagricultural 101 56 45 19 23 4 0 88
    33 GrizZag 94 68 26 26 11 15 0 89
    34 ZagzKrak 103 54 49 17 25 8 0 92
    35 BigBlahla 95 62 33 25 17 8 0 92
    36 Reborn 93 67 26 27 12 15 0 93
    37 Zaga 92 70 22 28 9 19 0 93
    38 ZigZagger 96 57 39 24 22 2 0 94
    39 Bartruff1 95 60 35 25 19 6 0 94
    40 Maynard G Krebs 95 59 36 25 20 5 0 95
    41 tummydoc 95 56 39 25 23 2 0 98
    42 All Weather Fan 91 68 23 29 11 18 0 98
    43 RenoZag 91 66 25 29 13 16 0 100
    44 willandi 90 65 25 30 14 16 0 104
    45 Akzag 90 54 36 30 25 5 0 115
    46 Zagceo 85 55 30 35 24 11 0 129


    If I missed you, screwed up your scored tell me... won't take offense... I am human and can make mistakes... which is obvious on my botched spreadsheet.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    A big 2nd to the ‘this is fun’ sentiments. Joining in really makes me more closely assess the team and their competition. I even took the time here in Denver visiting pals to watch Denver University play U of Maine on TV. Just cuz we play them on 12/21.
    Thanks LIZF
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

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    just as I suspected....I still came out last. that's twice in 1 game! bad is bad)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagceo View Post
    just as I suspected....I still came out last. that's twice in 1 game! bad is bad)
    That sir...

    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  20. #20
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    Sorry folks... late for me here on the east coast... will have results in the AM. Still have a bit of data entry to do and want my wits about me.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Thanks again for all your work it makes our board that much better

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    Zags win 104-67

    Well that was an improvement. Guess we collectively shook the cobwebs out after that first game. Still some prognostication work to do. We were under on the Zag score by 7 and change and over on the Texas Southern score by a shade over 5. The combo of undershooting on the Zags and overshooting on TSU led to a roughly 13 point miss on the spread. Funny, as I was doing the data entry, until I got to Sarenyon everyone had been dancing around the Zag score but never called it.

    Here are the means:

    Zags 96.35

    TSU 72.02
    Spread 24.32

    And the winner this week... Zags67 in a tight one with Sarenyon on his heels followed by Bartruff1. Kudos to Zags11 for coming in under 20.

    Standings are below... if I missed anyone... screwed up your score... message me... I'll get you fixed in the database and spreadsheets

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 Zags67 101 67 34 3 0 3 0 9
    2 Sarenyon 104 71 33 0 4 4 0 12
    3 Bartruff1 100 65 35 4 2 2 0 14
    4 Zags11 99 65 34 5 2 3 0 17
    5 JPW314159 102 72 30 2 5 7 0 21
    6 Radbooks 101 71 30 3 4 7 0 21
    7 amaronizag 100 70 30 4 3 7 0 21
    8 TexasZagFan 102 73 29 2 6 8 0 24
    9 ProVeeZag 98 70 28 6 3 9 0 27
    10 Thespywhozaggedme 97 69 28 7 2 9 0 27
    11 tummydoc 103 76 27 1 9 10 0 30
    12 BigBlahla 101 74 27 3 7 10 0 30
    13 Zagricultural 101 74 27 3 7 10 0 30
    14 willandi 101 75 26 3 8 11 0 33
    15 Mattydog73 98 72 26 6 5 11 0 33
    16 gbnyba17 97 71 26 7 4 11 0 33
    17 WenatcheeZag 97 71 26 7 4 11 0 33
    18 spike_jr 94 68 26 10 1 11 0 33
    19 Reborn 93 67 26 11 0 11 0 33
    20 LongIslandZagFan 93 65 28 11 2 9 0 35
    21 Mr. Vulture 93 65 28 11 2 9 0 35
    22 ZagsGoZags 98 73 25 6 6 12 0 36
    23 Psychozag 97 72 25 7 5 12 0 36
    24 Stache 94 69 25 10 2 12 0 36
    25 BogoZags 91 67 24 13 0 13 0 39
    26 NotoriousZ 105 80 25 1 13 12 0 40
    27 77Zag 99 76 23 5 9 14 0 42
    28 BayAreaZagFan 95 72 23 9 5 14 0 42
    29 Zag_Dad 95 72 23 9 5 14 0 42
    30 Kitzbuel 95 73 22 9 6 15 0 45
    31 GrizZag 94 72 22 10 5 15 0 45
    32 DixieZag 92 70 22 12 3 15 0 45
    33 TravelinZag 90 68 22 14 1 15 0 45
    34 ZigZagger 89 67 22 15 0 15 0 45
    35 Martin Center Mad Man 101 80 21 3 13 16 0 48
    36 Stevet75 99 78 21 5 11 16 0 48
    37 RenoZag 88 66 22 16 1 15 0 49
    38 Zagger 100 80 20 4 13 17 0 51
    39 GU69 90 70 20 14 3 17 0 51
    40 irishzag_09 95 76 19 9 9 18 0 54
    41 Akzag 92 74 18 12 7 19 0 57
    42 All Weather Fan 91 73 18 13 6 19 0 57
    43 ZagzKrak 95 78 17 9 11 20 0 60
    44 Zagceo 120 79 41 16 12 4 0 60
    45 Hoopaholic 90 74 16 14 7 21 0 63
    46 23dpg 87 71 16 17 4 21 0 63
    47 Zaga 89 75 14 15 8 23 0 69
    48 ZenZag 92 79 13 12 12 24 0 72
    49 GonzagasaurausFlex 83 74 9 21 7 28 0 84

    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  23. #23
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    Cool, I got second twice in a row... don't see me keeping up that streak. But pretty neat anyway.
    GO ZAGS!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarenyon View Post
    Cool, I got second twice in a row... don't see me keeping up that streak. But pretty neat anyway.
    ...and I haven't got last yet! Love it!
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarenyon View Post
    Cool, I got second twice in a row... don't see me keeping up that streak. But pretty neat anyway.
    Shhhh ..... us low lifes will start to cluster your predictions ...
    Congrats!
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

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