Poll: Should Larsen start at center and JWIII come off the bench?

[thespywhozaggedme]

Toughest environment of the year? Hec Ed might be packed for the Zags but I don't think fans have exactly been flocking to the stands so far this year. UW is winning games but against weak competition, and some of the games have been close. Since the series renewed, every year some Zags fans make the Huskies out to be way more than they are. GU should win fairly easily.

That doesn't address the question posed by the OP in this thread. Hard to say. JWIII has been up and down. Don't forget the Florida game. Larsen has been good most of this year, but several games he looked shaky in the first half before settling down and playing better after halftime. I think I'd stick w/ JWIII as a starter for now but continue to give Larsen plenty of minutes.

Timmins is kind of a wide body for UW but not productive at all. Dickerson vs. JWIII could be an intriguing matchup.

Excellent, well thought out post. Dickerson is having a great year thus far and when he was thinking about transferring, I was hoping we'd land him. You're right, I'm very curious to see how JWIII fares against him.

[thespywhozaggedme]

Zags gonna beat Villanova and likley go undefeated this year was good example of such “drivel”....ha ha

Yes it was. I have no problem admitting that I was wrong. I've been married 15 years, I wake up wrong.

[sittingon50]

You mean the guy that was MVP of last year's NCAA Regional & on the PK80 All Tourney 1st team?

[thespywhozaggedme]

You mean the guy that was MVP of last year's NCAA Regional & on the PK80 All Tourney 1st team?

No, I'm talking about the guy that had 5 points, 5 fouls and ZERO rebounds tonight. See, I can cherry pick stats that fit my narrative too. lol

[scrooner]

Unless my memory is off, Larsen kind of reminds me of Batista. JP was 2 inches shorter & 40lbs heavier, but the stats seem similar.

Larsen so far (age 20):
12min, 5.1pts, 4.1rb, 2P% .619, FT% .750

Batista year 1 (age 23):
25 min, 12.4pts, 6.2rb, 2P% .612, FT% .802

Batista year 2:
32 min, 19.3pts, 9.4rb, 2P% .594, FT% .833

[thespywhozaggedme]

Unless my memory is off, Larsen kind of reminds me of Batista. JP was 2 inches shorter & 40lbs heavier, but the stats seem similar.

Larsen so far (age 20):
12min, 5.1pts, 4.1rb, 2P% .619, FT% .750

Batista year 1 (age 23):
25 min, 12.4pts, 6.2rb, 2P% .612, FT% .802

Batista year 2:
32 min, 19.3pts, 9.4rb, 2P% .594, FT% .833

I think it's an even easier comp. He's a much more athletic, much better in shape Shem. He does all of the good that Shem did, great advanced post moves, great vision and passer and more that Shem couldn't do; JL tries to always dunk, doesn't drop the easy pass and is a better ft shooter. The kid is gonna be a flat out stud.

[tummydoc]

Not a crazy question. JW thrived as a pf last year, much more natural position and as pro likely where he'd earn a living. I'd love to see JL at the 5 and JW at the 4. But that leaves Tillie off the floor and I think he's our most consistent player. I think this is our last year to watch "the Eiffel tower" in a zag uniform. To valuable not to start.

[sittingon50]

No, I'm talking about the guy that had 5 points, 5 fouls and ZERO rebounds tonight. See, I can cherry pick stats that fit my narrative too. lol

Cherry pick stats?

I just referenced 5 games. You referenced 1.

Going too fast for you?

I'll see your lol & raise you LOL.

[thespywhozaggedme]

Cherry pick stats?

I just referenced 5 games. You referenced 1.

Going too fast for you?

I'll see your lol & raise you LOL.

I could post similar games where he was less than effective, i.e. Utah state but I did not want this to be a JW III bashing thread but conversely I didn't want posts like yours turning it into a slobber fest either.

[cggonzaga]

I’ll stick with our leading scorer and rebounder. Sheesh, guy has one bad game and you’re ready to move on? Come on spy!

[Zags11]

Silly. We got outclassed tonight. From top to bottom. Its one loss in a poor way.

[Mantua]

No.

Jay Bilas needs to stay on the bench.

[sittingon50]

I could post similar games where he was less than effective, i.e. Utah state but I did not want this to be a JW III bashing thread but conversely I didn't want posts like yours turning it into a slobber fest either.

[mgadfly]

I’ll stick with our leading scorer and rebounder. Sheesh, guy has one bad game and you’re ready to move on? Come on spy!

While I think it'd be insane to move away from JW3, he has been fairly miserable since the Florida game.
5 points, 0 rebounds, 3 turnovers, 5 personal fouls, offensive rating of 65 (the Will Foster line - kind of like the Mendoza Line - is 95 for comparison).
15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 turnovers, Offensive Rating of 81
9 points, 7 rebounds (efficient game with 122 O-Rating against Incarnate Word)
10 points, 4 rebounds, 6 turnovers, 4 fouls, O-Rating of 57

Throw in 5 points and 5 rebounds against Utah State (and 4 fouls) and what you have is:
An offensive efficiency rating of 101.3 for the season. Good enough for 10th on the team. (Jack Beach is worse)
A true shot percentage of 55.6, 9th on the team (Jesse Wade and Jack Beach are worse)
He's had 2 offensive rebounds in the last three games, dropping him from a solid number to 8.7% (Larsen at 14.9 and Hachimura at 10.3).
He fifth in defensive rebounding percentage.
He is 8th on our team in FT%. (Better than Wade, Jones and Beach)
7th in 2PFG% (Better than Perkins, Melson, and Beach)
He is 9th in 3FG% (Better than Beach)
He is behind Tillie (4.7%) and Larsen (6.5%) in blocked shots (3.4%).

Basically, he has been a high usage player with incredibly inefficient statistics. This is consistent with what he did when Missouri asked him to be THE GUY. O-Rating as a freshman was 105.8 with a usage rate of 13.9%. As a sophomore, his O-Rating dipped to 90.4 with a usage rate of 25.2. He is currently at 101.3 with a usage rate of 24.1 after being a solid 115 O-rating with a usage rate of 18.9.

Even though possession based metrics show him to be considerably worse than Larsen, I think part of the reason is we are trying to make him something he is not. He is not a premier go-to guy. He is an excellent secondary or third option. He was fantastic last year playing off of other playmakers, but like his sophomore season, he is struggling to be the playmaker. I'd love to see his usage dip from 24.1 to 19% or so. Play through Tillie and Larsen more (with him on the court with Larsen) to get him some weak-side rebounding and scoring opportunities to get him going.

It's possible that he'll flip the switch (especially during WCC play) and become something he has never been, but it is also possible that getting him a few easier looks as the offense is run through one of the other bigs would be good for him and developing the other player.

For the record, Reborn does not approve of this message or endorse it in any way.

[GonzagasaurusFlex]

JW3 is not really a center...I'd like to see JL and JW3 start and have Tillie come off the bench with the first foul maybe. But either way JW3 earned his right to start last year IMHO.

This. JWIII deserves to start but coaches need to help him succeed by allowing him to play his natural PF spot.

imho, JWIII is trying too hard and not letting the game come to him + Zags are feeding into that by forcing him to be a “post up down on the block and go to work” type player...that was good for Karnowski but not for JWIII. It’s his senior season, he aspires to play professionally and it’s as if the pressure to perform and earn an opportunity to do so is already on his mind. Just ball out and enjoy your senior year JWIII...ZagNation loves you already.