General Science Thread

[DZ]

Elon Musk says he plans to have humans on Mars in 6 years. I'll take the over. https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...ex-mars-colony

SpaceX founder Elon Musk has outlined his highly ambitious vision for manned missions to Mars, which he said could begin as soon as 2022 – three years sooner than his previous estimates.


However, the question of how such extravagantly expensive missions would be funded remains largely in the dark.

I'm not as smart as Musk, but I am smart enough to know that that particular question is just as important as "How do you get your stuff there?"

In order to achieve this goal, Musk outlined a multi-stage launch and transport system, including a reusable booster – like the Falcon 9, which SpaceX has already successfully tested – only much larger. The booster, and the “interplanetary module” on top of it, would be nearly as long as two Boeing 747 aircraft. It could initially carry up to 100 passengers, he said.

The first ship to go to Mars, Musk said, would be named Heart of Gold as a tribute to the ship powered by an “infinite improbability drive” from Douglas Adams’ science fiction novel The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.

[LongIslandZagFan]

If he actually does launch that ship in 6 years... I got money on it failing due to poor planning and people dying. Slow and steady wins the race in the end.

[DZ]

If he actually does launch that ship in 6 years... I got money on it failing due to poor planning and people dying. Slow and steady wins the race in the end.

It is surprising, isn't it? It's not like that's a guy known to go off half-cocked, bold to be sure, but not irresponsible. I am surprised he announced while also even admitting that he didn't have any funding set up. Of course, it's possible that the announcement actually was meant to stir funding.

[DZ]

More on same. Getting wide coverage today. http://www.esquire.com/news-politics...nization-plan/

One of the fundamental pillars of Musk's plan is to make it reasonably cheap to get humans to the red planet. By his estimates, sending humans to Mars with traditional tech would cost as much as $10 billion per person, a price tag that makes creating a self-sustaining colony something reserved to science fiction. But Musk, being the boundary pusher he is, has a different ticket price in mind: The median price of a house in the United States. That is, just a few hundred thousand dollars.


The key technological milestones to making this happen, according to Musk, are reusable spacecraft, orbital refueling, propellant production on Mars, and some really good propellant, specifically "Deep-cryo methalox" or CH402 because it's relatively cheap and can be made right on Mars

[LongIslandZagFan]

More on same. Getting wide coverage today. http://www.esquire.com/news-politics...nization-plan/

Just me... but before I strap myself to a combustible cylinder to go to another planet... I'd LOOOOOVVVVE to see a little proof that you can actually do it... repeatedly. THEN and only then would I do it. JMHO, 6 years isn't enough time to do that. It just isn't.

[DZ]

Just me... but before I strap myself to a combustible cylinder to go to another planet... I'd LOOOOOVVVVE to see a little proof that you can actually do it... repeatedly. THEN and only then would I do it. JMHO, 6 years isn't enough time to do that. It just isn't.

Yeah, but one's got to figure they're at least going to send supplies ahead of time with the same system. But, that doesn't change the fact that you're right. Doesn't really matter how many supply runs they use in the intervening years - can't be that many, yet, with no money - just not enough to really ensure kinks are worked out. Some will go, no matter what. Just risky.

[willandi]

Just me... but before I strap myself to a combustible cylinder to go to another planet... I'd LOOOOOVVVVE to see a little proof that you can actually do it... repeatedly. THEN and only then would I do it. JMHO, 6 years isn't enough time to do that. It just isn't.

Alan Shepard rode a Redstone, suborbital in 1961 for our first trip out of the atmosphere. While I was a youngling at Vandenberg, they were testing the Atlas, and many blew up. That is what John Glenn rode for the first orbital flight. They developed the Titan, Saturn and Jupiter to land a man on the moon, all within a 9 year span and starting from scratch.

I don't know if he will be successful, but if he can find the answers to the fuel situations, it is possible in 6 years. He already has much of the groundwork laid. Would I go up? Probably, bad ticker and all, just because!

[DZ]

Alan Shepard rode a Redstone, suborbital in 1961 for our first trip out of the atmosphere. While I was a youngling at Vandenberg, they were testing the Atlas, and many blew up. That is what John Glenn rode for the first orbital flight. They developed the Titan, Saturn and Jupiter to land a man on the moon, all within a 9 year span and starting from scratch.

I don't know if he will be successful, but if he can find the answers to the fuel situations, it is possible in 6 years. He already has much of the groundwork laid. Would I go up? Probably, bad ticker and all, just because!

True.

But - and Will, you know how it is that I know this - NASA's budget at that time, was 5% of the total federal budget. Extraordinary even before you count the fact that those missions used as much military money as they did civilian, even though that couldn't be said out loud.

Your main point is that it was an unbelievably audacious plan, completed. And that's certainly true. Probably in no small part b/c it was done by a generation that had no problem thinking big, the tail end of that generation rightly called the greatest. They had the wherewithal, the drive, the shared sacrifice, all to put such money into it that they could have completely different teams working on each mission all at the same time, allowing for one after another. Amazing, as you note. Just, the money needs acknowledgment, it did help.

[bullzag23]

Scientists recently discovered that Mercury is geologically active.

[DZ]

The "Steps" in Space X's plan to get to Mars - according to The Onion http://www.theonion.com/infographic/...ize-mars-54049


STEP 1

Invent remaining 2,348 technologies needed to make trip possible




STEP 2

$10 billion appears




STEP 3

Cost of spaceship reduced by going with cheap Venetian plaster instead of more expensive marble




STEP 4

Before departing, voyagers visit doctor to receive all the CDC–recommended vaccines for trip to another celestial body




STEP 5

Tell poor people we’ll come back for them




STEP 6

Humanity runs away from all of its problems at 5,375 mph


Several more at link.

[bullzag23]

Well, it's been nice foo-ing around with you folks.

[DZ]

Well, it's been nice foo-ing around with you folks.

Great article. Pretty f00-typical. I finally get a great regular contributor to the science thread and a couple weeks later, you end up with a house on the bottom of the Pacific.

But, don't max the credit cards just yet, as you read:

But as the USGS researchers point out, this is far from an inevitability. The swarm under the Salton Sea may subside, or fail to influence the gigantic fault nearby. Moreover, the estimates provided by the scientists are exactly that—estimates. The science of earthquake prediction is still very much in its infancy, and these models are very likely crunching away with insufficient data. No need to panic just yet.

I think the people of Seattle/Portland have more to fear in terms of sheer devastation than So. Cal, with the horrific earthquake followed by a wall of water. And, there's is well-overdue.

[DZ]

What's with NASA and those guys smashing everything into planets and comets now when the mission is done?

The historic Rosetta mission has finally come to an end. Over the past two years, the probe’s many instruments have scanned virtually every nook and cranny of this weirdly shaped rock, Tunleashing a treasure trove of new information about comets in general, and 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko in particular.

Even as Rosetta made its final death plunge onto the surface of the comet, mission scientists were busy collecting data. Its final resting place—named Ma’at after the ancient Egyptian goddess of harmony, balance, and order—is a region strewn with boulders and treacherous sinkholes. By exploring this area in detail, scientists hope to gain a better understanding of how comets form.[/QUOTE]

[bullzag23]

Potentially great news in the medical world. A British man may be the first person ever to have been completely cured of HIV.

[DZ]

Anyone else really excited about the total eclipse in 2017? Definitely a near once in a lifetime chance. http://www.eclipse2017.org/2017/path_through_the_US.htm





For Idaho - one of the closest to WA

IDAHO

On to Idaho, where Stanley and Mackay are the first recipients of lots of shadow. Idaho Falls is in the path, but south of the centerline - so it only basks in the umbra for 1m49s at 11:33am. Rexburg does much better, getting 2m17s at the same time.

The highest point in Idaho - Borah Peak - is in totality, and that might not be a bad place to be for the more adventurous types!

But that's it for Idaho - Boise and Pocatello are NOT in the path of totality! Do not stay home, and think you're getting a good show, because you're not! Get north, and get into the shadow! IN BOISE OR POCATELLO, the eclipse will never be total for you! You will need to use your eclipse glasses for the entire partial eclipse!

OREGON

And that land will be United States soil. On the beach in Oregon, at a rocky spot of ground just north of Newport that sticks its nose out into the Pacific, the shadow first touches land at 17:15:50.6UT (at about 10:15 in the morning). This lucky piece of earth experiences a full minute and fifty seconds of totality.

The actual centerline of the eclipse path hits solid ground a full six seconds later, and plunges Lincoln Beach and Depoe Bay into darkness for 1m58s!

It takes only about two minutes for the shadow to race eastward toward its first date with a large population of folks who will be breathlessly awaiting its arrival. Dallas, Albany, Corvallis, Lebanon, Philomath, McMinnville, Woodburn, and yes, Salem itself, experience various durations of totality (based on their varying distances from the centerline); on the steps of the State Capitol in Salem (the first of five state capitals the shadow will visit), lucky viewers will be treated to 1m54.5s of shadow at just after 10:17am. (Great time for a coffee break!)

The great city of Portland is NOT in the path of totality! If you're there, or in Eugene, you will not get the full meal deal! Get south, and get yourself into the shadow! That's right: IF YOU STAY IN PORTLAND, the eclipse will never be total for you! You will need to use your eclipse glasses for the entire partial eclipse, and you will not see the beauty of totality!