DS in the draft

[zagdontzig]

This was a very bad year.

Player H W P School C # Team
1 Cleveland Anthony Bennett 6-7 240 SF197
2 *Orlando Victor Oladipo 6-4 213 SG/SF Indiana
3 Washington Otto Porter 6-9 200 SF Georgetown
4 Charlotte Cody Zeller 7-0 230 PF/C Indiana So.
5 Phoenix Alex Len 7-1 255 C Maryland So
6 *New Orleans Nerlens Noel 6-11 206 PF/C Kentucky Fr.
7 *Sacramento Ben McLemore 6-5 190 SG Kansas Fr.
8 Detroit Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6-6 205 SG Georgia So
9 *Utah Trey Burke 6-1 190 PG Michigan So.
10 *Portland CJ McCollum 6-3 197 PG/SG Lehigh Sr.
11 *Philadelphia Michael Carter-Williams 6-6 185 PG Syracuse So.
12 *Oklahoma Cty Steven Adams 7-0 255 C Pittsburgh Fr.
13 *Boston Kelly Olynyk 7-0 234 C Gonzaga Jr.
14 *Minnesota Shabazz Muhammad 6-6 225 SF UCLA Fr.
15 Milwaukee Giannis Adetokoubo 6-10 205 SF Greece Intl.
16 *Atlanta Lucas Nogueira 7-0 220 PF/C Brazil Intl
17 Atlanta Dennis Schroder 6-2 168 PG Germany Intl.
18 *Dallas Shane Larkin 5-11 171 PG Miami So
19 *Cleveland Sergey Karasev 6-7 197 SG/SF Russia Intl.
20 Chicago Tony Snell 6-7 198 SG/SF New Mexico Jr
21 *Minnesota Gorgui Dieng 6-11 230 C Louisville Jr
22 Brooklyn Mason Plumlee 6-11 238 PF Duke Sr
23 Indiana Solomon Hill 6-7 226 SF Arizona Sr.
24 New York Tim Hardaway Jr 6-6 200 SG Michigan Jr.
25 LA Clippers Reggie Bullock 6-7 200 SG/SF North Carolina Jr.
26 *Oklahoma Cty Andre Roberson 6-7 206 SF/PF Colorado Jr.
27 Denver Rudy Gobert 7-2 238 C France Intl.
28 San Antonio Livio Jean-Charles 6-9 217 SF/PF France Intl.
29 *Phoenix Archie Goodwin 6-5 189 SG Kentucky Fr.
30 *Golden St. Nemanja Nedovic

"very bad" is a bit unfair IMO. Unremarkable I think is more fitting. There are a number of quasi-starters in there - Oladipo, Burke, MCW, Kelly, the greek freak, Dieng, Plumlee, Gobert....

[DZ]

Scouts are telling Domas' camp he is top 10. I am just hoping Pryor comes, and possibly can pick up one more big on the Grad Free agent wire.

Not saying that's factually wrong or questioning your sources, but don't scouts tell about 35 kids they are top 10 every year?

[jimmycarter]

Question: People have stated that Domas' decision will be based, in part, on whether PK comes back. If Shem returns, which way does this push Sabonis? I know these guys are friends, but would Shem's departure make Domas stay due to a more featured role (more minutes)? Or would DS be more likely to return to play WITH Karno?

[mgadfly]

I think about it this way: These guys have X number of years when they can play basketball at a high level. Maybe that's 15 years, or 12, or 20.

How many of those years do they want to get paid for, versus how many do they want to play for free? Most people would want to maximize their earning potential.

I'm with VinnyZag here. There is an NBA shelf life, and I think it is the real question. Domas is going to play for quite some time (barring injury) in the league. Most players peak at 26.5 years old (take a look at historical PER ratings and the sharp decline that hits at about 29 - for example, no player has ever had a PER rating above 30 when 30 years or older and with just a few exceptions almost all 30+ PER seasons are for a 26 or 27 year old player). DS's dad made it to 38 years old in the league (a major accomplishment for a big guy - side note, even at 38 years old his PER rating was higher than Vlade's ever was - I'm looking at you Heister).

Lets assume DS can make it to 35 years old. Does he want 16 seasons * NBA $ vs 15 seasons * NBA $? But it is more than that too? Does he want 16 seasons to accumulate career accomplishments? 16 shots at a championship rather than 15? Yes. There is a lot of talk about what his dad might have been able to do if he had played his whole career here. I'd think there is something in him that wants to not only play professionally, but to put together a complete professional career. That "something" is emotional and meaningful beyond the NBA $.

I think the real equation is not ONLY how much money he would get in his first contract if he goes this year or next year, but also what the value of an extra season in the NBA (for a bunch of reasons) might be vs the value of coming back to GU. There is a lot of value in coming back. There are friends here, he can focus on improving his game further, etc... But, there is more than the $ this year vs next year to consider when thinking about leaving.

[ValencyLovesZagsInAtlanta]

I think the contingency plan IF Domas tells the staff he wants the NBA CASH...is to go hard after Alec Peters who will be bolting from Valpo with Bryce Drew headed to Vanderbilt. Good chance Peters follows him similar to the Mack/Shaka dealio BUT we need a back up plan and a Doug McDermott clone works for me! Have Alec on speed dial just in case! lol (I think Peters becomes a grad transfer and looks to leave).

[BULLDOG#1]

Rationalizing his return:

If both he and Shem return, the Zags will be in the limelight all year and will cornerstone arguably the most talented zag roster ever. Enjoy college and your friends, get the degree, try and make history for the program. Continued development, especially with his perimeter game and first team AA and final four are within reason. Karno and Collins will give him all kinds of opportunity to showcase skills on the wing and not have to constantly worry about foul trouble.

This exposure would likely move him up to top ten or better (a la Kamininski) which means higher first contract - with compound interest and time would mean $$ than last 2-4 years of his career... i.e. By making top dollars as a top 10 pick, he's more than make up the lost initial year $ by coming back to GU. He could possibly make more money playing 10 years in the league than leaving now and playing 14 years.

I believe he can get an insurance policy against an injury that could drop his stock... His dad can probably scrap together the funds for that.

This would all become moot if he's a top ten this year... but I just don't see him that high right now.

[VinnyZag]

Keep in mind that draftniks pretty much agree that next year's draft class is stronger than this year's.

[Malastein]

Domas is Anderson Varejao 2.0. He should be a back end lottery pick in any draft. He could have a couple borderline all star seasons. He could stay another year and gain confidence in his midrange skill set.

[GeorgiaZagFan]

Question: People have stated that Domas' decision will be based, in part, on whether PK comes back. If Shem returns, which way does this push Sabonis? I know these guys are friends, but would Shem's departure make Domas stay due to a more featured role (more minutes)? Or would DS be more likely to return to play WITH Karno?

I personally believe that if PK stayed it would benefit DS to stay and play the position he will play in the NBA...there is NO WAY he will be a post player in the NBA, not yet and not ever unless he grows into his dad's size. To play away from the basket a little more, develop the outside game, improve his one-on-one moves, and still seek the rebounds will make him a valuable NBA player similar to Al Horford of the Atlanta Hawks...and if you remember, Horford could have come out early but stayed for another year to win the NCAA championship.

[Rangerzag]

OK Domas completely owns Poeltl in the game against Utah, but the most respected draft projector has Poeltl at eight and Domas at nineteen. I don't see the people with all the money missing that performance and drafting Domas that far behind Poeltl.

The idea of Domas staying for another year if Karno stays is a nice idea. I have not seen any scenario showing where Karno will actually have the information he needs to decide if he is returning even close to the time frame the NBA draft will play out.

[Birddog]

Nobody has mentioned whether or not Domas has an on campus girl friend. That fact could be an important piece of the puzzle. Another factor to consider if there is said girlfriend is whether or not she is likely to stay and graduate or is she perhaps more influenced by the possible fame and bling of being an NBA players main squeeze. I don't mean to sound crass, but chicks can have a lot of sway.

[willandi]

but chicks can have a lot of sway.

Isn't that why we watch?

[Coach Crazy]

Domas is Anderson Varejao 2.0. He should be a back end lottery pick in any draft. He could have a couple borderline all star seasons. He could stay another year and gain confidence in his midrange skill set.

When someone says something like this, it is required of that person to make a very strong case. I am going to try and avoid a response that is condescending and dismissive.

[tinfoilzag]

From Chad Ford Big Board 6.0

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/15134157/chad-ford-big-board-60-nba-draft-2016

#15. Domantas Sabonis

"Sabonis was dominant for Gonzaga in the tourney and looks like he may have boosted his draft stock more than anyone else.

He was especially impressive against Utah's Jakob Poeltl, scoring 19 points, grabbing 10 boards and shutting down Poeltl on the offensive end.

He's not a great athlete and he doesn't stretch the floor, but his rebounding, basketball IQ and toughness should allow him to make it in the NBA."

[jazzdelmar]

15-20 is NBA draft no mans land. Can't see DS leaving for high teens. He still doesn't play D terribly well, needs a three point shot and doesn't rebound out of his area all that great.

Otoh, from today's Huffington Post.

Sabonis’ feathery lefty touch may very well have helped him play his way into the top five of June’s draft. His best performance came against Utah All-American center Jakob Poeltl, in which Sabonis totaled 19 points and 10, while holding the 7-footer to a measly 5 points and 4 rebounds. The beauty of Sabonis is that at 6-foot-11, he has extended his range out to the 3-point line and converts 77 percent of his free throws. About the only thing he doesn’t do is block shots, but his coach, Mark Few, says Sabonis reminds him of a 1,000-pound Siberian Tiger. The Lithuanian plays with a nonstop motor, and because of an injury to teammate Przemek Karnowski, he spent much of his sophomore campaign playing the five slot. I’ve been saying it for two years now, but there is a lot to love about this prospect. He is viable star in the making.