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Thread: POV: Gonzaga's Recruiting Benefits Long-Term if Sabonis Declares

  1. #1
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    Default POV: Gonzaga's Recruiting Benefits Long-Term if Sabonis Declares

    There is a case to be made that the more GU places draft picks, the better our recruiting prospects are. Some anecdotal evidence:

    Central to Tommy Lloyd's pitch to Domantas was GU's ability to develop big men such as Kelly Olynyk. Remember his success redshirting behind a Sacre/Karno/Harris line-up. The argument for Domantas to stay is that he can improve his upside. But he can also (and I know this is blasphemy coming off his performance against Poeltl) fall back into mediocrity. Nightmare-in-point: Harris was considered a strong draft prospect, and GU Boards memes aside, the hype around Harris was similar to that of Sabonis. Harris elected to stay. He continued to produce at a high level, even though he may have been a defensive liability at times, but ultimately, he found himself overshadowed by newer draft prospects. Kyle Wiltjer is in a similar boat this year, although he still probably is more signable undrafted than Harris was.

    Long story short, the argument is that as a low first-round/high second-round pick, there is some upside but there is more downside for Sabonis' career staying another year. While he will almost assuredly help our team next year, Tommy et. al. may not be able to use him as an Olynykeque success-story, which ironically played a large part in getting Sabonis to commit.

    For himself, and for Gonzaga, he should declare.

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    Harris' draft stock early from what I remember was based on dunks and highlight reels. If he declared that wouldn't have looked good at all. He wasn't ready for NBA at all. BTW he had his chances afterward too. No shame in anything he thought was best for himself

    Sabonis won't fall back into mediocrity at all. He's the most persistent, driven, and hungry player ever at GU. There's no chance in the world he slips....no matter what the decision I hope he does what will make him the most happy
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    ...if sabonis has indeed worked himself into a lottery pick, it's probably best that he goes this year from a personal standpoint (this draft is relatively weak compared to next year). from a zag recruiting standpoint it's not so clear...if sabonis coming back is the difference between another sweet 16 or gu's first ever final four appearance, him coming back would be much more important than being a lotto pick this year, even if his draft stock dips a little in the process.

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    Nonsense....if he goes now he's prob a top 12-15.....next year he would be top 5......and a Wooden finalist and god knows what other awards and accomplishment.......vs sitting on the end of a sub 500 NBA bench.......worse, he ends up a Wesley Johnson, years in the league, top pick. hunting for teams and minutes.....makes no sense to go, save for bucks and we (think) we know he does not need them now.....really simple....

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    It's all about the legacy he wants to create. It's his story. I do not know what would be better for his personal brand. He may become a household name if he stays. He may do well in his first year of NBA. It all comes down to when he looks back 30 years from now at his career as a whole what had the biggest impact and what he is most proud of.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Nonsense....if he goes now he's prob a top 12-15.....next year he would be top 5......and a Wooden finalist and god knows what other awards and accomplishment.......vs sitting on the end of a sub 500 NBA bench.......worse, he ends up a Wesley Johnson, years in the league, top pick. hunting for teams and minutes.....makes no sense to go, save for bucks and we (think) we know he does not need them now.....really simple....
    100% agree...if he goes it's because he and his family think he is ready...doubt his dad thinks he is...I'm sure papa knows every nuance of his son's game that still needs work...Domas still has room to improve, knows it and has said so....no degree as promised as of yet....he stays...for many reasons but the biggest is his love for Gonzaga, teammates, fans and most of all love of the game...he stays making a history of his own...his legacy....

    Just my opinion...

    Go!! Zags!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Nonsense....if he goes now he's prob a top 12-15.....next year he would be top 5......and a Wooden finalist and god knows what other awards and accomplishment.......vs sitting on the end of a sub 500 NBA bench.......worse, he ends up a Wesley Johnson, years in the league, top pick. hunting for teams and minutes.....makes no sense to go, save for bucks and we (think) we know he does not need them now.....really simple....
    There is no such thing as a simple decision to declare. You're taking for granted that he'll be a top 5 next year. That's a very rosy outlook. Yes, he had a fantastic year this year, and there is no doubt in my mind that he will continue to produce for us, but that doesn't presuppose his draft stock goes up, especially with the draft class expected next year.

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    I'm not sure many realize Elias Harris height w/o shoes was 6'6". He was barely 6'7" (on a good day).

    He was listed at 6'8", but everyone on the team joked about his 2" pumps, etc.

    Domas is a legit 6'10", closer to 6'11".

    Was all the more impressive Elias was one of the all-time rebounders and high-flying dunkers while at GU.

    Elias made the NBA for a short stint as a Laker, yet was finally listed at his real height (in shoes) at 6'7".

    He's doing well playing professionally in Germany.

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    I'm with those who think he will stay, for the same reasons they stated.

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    Harris is not a good comparison, IMO. Everybody knew that Harris was too small to play the 4 in the Association and could not guard the 3 spot. Classic tweener. Also he was very old for his class. I believe he was 23+ yrs old when he graduated which counts against you.

    Sabonis is barely 20 and at the end of next year would be 21 which is good for NBA because they still think you have upside.

    Sabonis as a Top 5 pick next year? That is impossible to say. New super frosh oner and doners as well as breakout players in marquee programs make that a crapshoot. If he is really a lottery pick now, he should go. GU does benefit from having a consistent history of developing high NBA draft choices. Olynyk is 3 years ago now and memories fade quickly.

    ZZ

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    I'd love for him to stay. I don't think he will.

    1. How much better will Sabonis get in college? Yes you can always work on some part of your game, but he is the best player on the court every game now as a 20 year old sophomore. He's physically ready and his skills are only going to get better playing against better athletes.

    2. He could hurt his stock next season. He played a lot of minutes this year and has stats that coincide with his many minutes. Next year, if Karno returns and we add Zach, he will play less minutes. He is not a stretch 4 as much as I would like him to be one. He made 5 3 pointers. It is not his game. Karno plays 10 feet from the rim and in. Sabonis plays 15 feet and in. What happens to his draft status if he has less than 18 points and 12 rebounds next season because he plays less minutes or plays out of position?

    3. The goal is the NBA right? He didn't sign a pro contract in Europe as a teenager to play NCAA basketball and get an education with the idea that he would play in the NBA as his career. He is a superstar and gets to start his career earlier than most for more money than if he stays and risks injury, player rotations, or other distraction.

    It is clear Domas loves GU and wants a degree. He can get the degree any time. He will always be a Zag. He probably wouldn't make it to Senior night two years from now anyway. He's too good. BTW, Domas is an Allstar in the NBA some day. For us he's an Allstar every day. God Bless him and good luck!

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    Less minutes ?

    The only reason he'd be getting less minutes is because we'd be crushing teams. Not because he's sucking. I'd say his pts go up, as well as his rebounds. His 3pt % skyrockets and so does his 3pt FG attempts. I don't see his stock falling at all regardless of what class it is
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    Quote Originally Posted by gonzagafan62 View Post
    Less minutes ?

    The only reason he'd be getting less minutes is because we'd be crushing teams. Not because he's sucking. I'd say his pts go up, as well as his rebounds. His 3pt % skyrockets and so does his 3pt FG attempts. I don't see his stock falling at all regardless of what class it is
    IF both Sabonis and PK return and PK is healthy, and assuming JWIII is not going to play small forward (which I do not think suits him on either end of the court)..then it is pretty much a given that Sabonis will play fewer minutes next season.

    All four bigs, Karnowski / Sabonis / Williams / Collins, would deserve significant playing time...which means nobody plays 30+ mpg.
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    For the record, DS is still only 19 and will not turn 20 until May 3. Right now, he is probably younger than some of the "one and done" crowd.

    I would love for him to stay, but that decision is ultimately his. Will he get markedly better in college? Does he look at PK this year and fear potential injury? Does he want/need the money? If the money isn't important, the NBA will still be there next year. I doubt it is an easy decision. I'm sure we all want nothing but the best for the kid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Nonsense....if he goes now he's prob a top 12-15.....next year he would be top 5......and a Wooden finalist and god knows what other awards and accomplishment.......vs sitting on the end of a sub 500 NBA bench.......worse, he ends up a Wesley Johnson, years in the league, top pick. hunting for teams and minutes.....makes no sense to go, save for bucks and we (think) we know he does not need them now.....really simple....
    If he comes back, he's likely not going to be a Top 5 pick unless he shoots much more from 3 and the mid-range. The downside to that is that he misses a lot and eliminates a significant amount of immediate dimension to his game. More risk than reward. And if he gets drafted this year, he won't be sitting on the end of the bench. He'll be the starting 4 or first off the bench forward. And he'll have an opportunity to further develop his shot in practice at the pro level.

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    I get the premise of the OP but I'd take two more years over the number 1 pick. Same with KO a few years back.
    Go Zags!!!

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    I don't remember anyone who stayed another year who didn't get tons better...........seems to be a consistent theme. I do think Few would celebrate a kid of his stature. Idoubt he'd lose minutes.
    Seems like most of this thought of him leaving is based on money. Might be. Money isn't everything though. For him to stay with GU for another year makes plenty of sense from the Euro outlook. His Dad seems conservative along those lines. That may be the overriding thought from his family if they want a degree and improvement and growth as a player and person.
    I suppose he'll go to the tryouts for evaluation(s). I wouldn't hire an agent quite yet. I don't think he will.............sorta cuts his options out if he does.

    About a month ago ZN detailed the Olympic schedules. That might matter two since he can'tbe in two places at once.......Either way he choses, he'll be benefitted. His choice. But we'd love to keep him. I would.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zagdontzig View Post
    but that doesn't presuppose his draft stock goes up, especially with the draft class expected next year.
    this is a huge key here that is either overlooked or willfully ignored by many. his perceived improvement from now to then is half the equation, at best. the names in the draft now and 12 months from now are hugely important, especially when you're talking first half of the first round.

    its almost as if some think that the greater # of people on this board saying he will or should come back, the better likelihood that he does... and the whole idea that people on here think he should come back, and that he isnt ready, and that he can only improve at gonzaga is preposterous, and a really bad look. fact of the matter is that there is a very reasonable path to short and long term success for him either way. personally, if i'm him, i go. but if he stays, he'll likely be just fine in the end

    i also find it comical all the people who know exactly what is going on in this kids head... another bad look. even with the sources... maybe he says what he has to say to get out of talking more about it? maybe he says what he says to tell people what they want to hear? maybe he hasnt thought about it yet and throws out a default response? maybe the sources are employing the same tactics, or just making a lot of inferences. maybe, just maybe, he can still love gonzaga and decide to pursue his inevitable career in the professional ranks 2 years into college.

    if he goes, he goes. best of luck to him, he's a great player with huge upside. gonzaga was lucky to have him

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    About the draft class expected next year??? Is it THAT great? Does anyone think Domas couldn't compete as well next year??

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    Quote Originally Posted by cbbfanatic View Post
    its almost as if some think that the greater # of people on this board saying he will or should come back, the better likelihood that he does... and the whole idea that people on here think he should come back, and that he isnt ready, and that he can only improve at gonzaga is preposterous, and a really bad look. fact of the matter is that there is a very reasonable path to short and long term success for him either way. personally, if i'm him, i go. but if he stays, he'll likely be just fine in the end
    The board has a self-perpetuating dialogue that nobody close to the players (except for maybe Dranginis' Mom) keeps up with. The board tells itself otherwise because human nature commands a need to feel relevant. I hate to break it to everyone, but we're all a bunch of fanboys, some fanmen, and nobody else cares about our emotional outletting following every game.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbbfanatic View Post
    i also find it comical all the people who know exactly what is going on in this kids head... another bad look. even with the sources... maybe he says what he has to say to get out of talking more about it? maybe he says what he says to tell people what they want to hear? maybe he hasnt thought about it yet and throws out a default response? maybe the sources are employing the same tactics, or just making a lot of inferences. maybe, just maybe, he can still love gonzaga and decide to pursue his inevitable career in the professional ranks 2 years into college.
    I also think it's a lose-lose question. If he says "I don't know" or doesn't answer, rumors fly around conference tournament time when there's already the distraction of HBO cameras. His only answer is to quietly say he's coming back.
    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    Go Zags!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    About the draft class expected next year??? Is it THAT great? Does anyone think Domas couldn't compete as well next year??
    It's better than this years, and that enough for him to default from the late first round to late second round, or out altogether, assuming he plays the same
    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by zagdontzig View Post
    It's better than this years, and that enough for him to default from the late first round to late second round, or out altogether, assuming he plays the same
    Nonsense. Double double dominator is a first round lock assuming no injuries.
    Go Zags!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by cjm720 View Post
    Nonsense. Double double dominator is a first round lock assuming no injuries.
    Oh my hell he's not even a first round lock this year.
    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by zagdontzig View Post
    Oh my hell he's not even a first round lock this year.
    I bet ya he is. This draft class is weak. No way he wouldn't go in the top 30. Lol
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    Quote Originally Posted by zagdontzig View Post
    Oh my hell he's not even a first round lock this year.
    And what are you basing this on? Besides every mock board out there projecting him as a first round pick.

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