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Thread: LUNARDI 2/22

  1. #76
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    Gonzaga means more. Politics, money, name, Few.........just does. Even a decent record should get us in. We're (surprisingly) better off than many teams I thought would be a lock. Standing back though......... with this program's track record over the years, I think we likely have a better chance than most even in this down year. . We're not a 10 or 12 loss disaster........We'll see, of course after the WCC tournament , but I think we'll be invited. Most everybody likes Few. Politics do matter. All thing even though, if GU is an 8 loss team and someone else is too, the nod likely goes to GU.

  2. #77
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    I also have to believe that the NCAA and CBS would want to see Wiltjer and Sabonis in the field. Benjamins rule the day.

    Go Zags - Beat SDU!
    “The true measure of a Jesuit education,” said former Superior General Peter-Hans Kolvenbach, “is not what our students do, but who they become.”

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by seacatfan View Post
    Hey 62 I have the same recollection as far as the "last 10 games" being taken out of consideration as a criteria recently.
    Yeah I remember it being taken away a few years ago. A sliding team Iowa) in 14 was like 2-8 (or something awful) in their last ten and for some reason I remember everyone sayin "you can't base it off last ten anymore)

    Therefore giving an even bigger advantage to major schools that are mediocre. Of corse iowa Made tourney as a 11 seed play in and got beat by Tennessee who went on to S16 I believe after they beat Mercer who beat Duke.
    Qualified for 22 Straight Big Dances

    11 Straight Round of 32s

    10 Sweet Sixteens (5 Straight)

    4 Elite Eights

    2017 FINAL FOUR

    2 Winningest Players in college basketball history (Karnowski 137, Perkins 134)

    The Best Point Guard to ever play the game: John Stockton, most assists, most steals.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach Crazy View Post
    There are more quotes than just from that article. And again, that criteria is across the board. Regardless of how one member may feel, there must be some level of majority or consensus. This ensures that criteria is not all over the board. RPI means less and less. I am confused by your insistence if you are asking the questions you are? Do you have quotes and proof that RPI is used with greater weight than the aforementioned Big 3?


    KenPom uses Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, Adjusted Tempo, and then has a Strength of Schedule Metric and a Non-conference SOS rating. So, yes, strength of schedule very much matters. And when you don't schedule strong, you need a lot of wins and very inflated stats to compensate. But teams traditionally have some bad losses during a season, and lose to better competition.

    So for a team like HamSammich U, when those things do happen, they have a pretty significant drop. Gonzaga, even in a down year, from a scheduling perspective, was still nearly 3 full points higher on the Sports Reference SOS rating system. With KenPom, the non-conference rating for St Marys was #328 at .3424, whereas Gonzaga had a #38 schedule at .6438. Major difference. As well, their offense came back down to earth, and isn't much better than Gonzaga's. While having the SOS that they do. They may have beaten Gonzaga twice this season...but that doesn't make them a better team. That is an old way of thinking.
    Lol Coach Crazy is the king of manipulating advanced stats to fit his preconceived notions about Gonzaga. Nice touch with Ham Sandwhich U. Really highlights your objectivity in this purely statistical analysis.

    At this point, why even watch the games. Just keep plugging in stats until you convince yourself Gonzaga has won the NCAA championship. What actually happens on the court is clearly a mere side note. If any one questions you, proceed to berate them with said statistics and be sure to throw in a few humble brags about sitting in John Wooden's office back in your coaching days. Applying your metrics, I'm sure all of your teams were really undefeated.

    I'm going to stick with the results on the court.

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by roundup View Post
    Lol Coach Crazy is the king of manipulating advanced stats to fit his preconceived notions about Gonzaga. Nice touch with Ham Sandwhich U. Really highlights your objectivity in this purely statistical analysis.

    At this point, why even watch the games. Just keep plugging in stats until you convince yourself Gonzaga has won the NCAA championship. What actually happens on the court is clearly a mere side note. If any one questions you, proceed to berate them with said statistics and be sure to throw in a few humble brags about sitting in John Wooden's office back in your coaching days. Applying your metrics, I'm sure all of your teams were really undefeated.

    I'm going to stick with the results on the court.
    And you are rooting for or against Zags making deep tourney run?

  6. #81
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    Deep run, if they get in. I usually root for the Zags if they are not playing SMC. Good for the conference.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach Crazy View Post
    ....... ,They may have beaten Gonzaga twice this season...but that doesn't make them a better team. That is an old way of thinking.
    I'm with roundup on this. That is just crazy talk. Losing sight of the forest due to the statistics trees. Why even watch the games if you believe stats alone determine the "better team"
    It is their time....their team...I just get to watch. - Bartruff1

  8. #83
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    If Gonzaga can win the last two regular season games, we can hang our hopes on USF beating Saint Mary's in San Francisco, for GU to win the WCC title & #1 seed. The odds of this happening is probably very low. Saint Mary's has choked in the past...


  9. #84

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    Lunardi is wrong. We have 4 home losses, no signature wins and no wins against the RPI top 25, 1-3 against the top 50 and a dismal 2-7 against the top 100. There are so many teams with good wins and we have none. We are not getting in as an At-large bid this year.

    We must win the WCC tournament & get the automatic bid. I'm confident that we can do it. I can't see us losing to SMC 3 times this year.

  10. #85

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    By the way, you don't want SMC or BYU to lose any more games this year except against us. Bad losses by them makes our resume worst in the eyes of the selection committee. We just need to take care of business & win the WCC tournament.

  11. #86

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    Quote Originally Posted by jkwhsu View Post
    Lunardi is wrong. We have 4 home losses, no signature wins and no wins against the RPI top 25, 1-3 against the top 50 and a dismal 2-7 against the top 100. There are so many teams with good wins and we have none. We are not getting in as an At-large bid this year.

    We must win the WCC tournament & get the automatic bid. I'm confident that we can do it. I can't see us losing to SMC 3 times this year.
    http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/...101-selections

    We have a quality win, no bad losses, just outside of the Top 30 for KenPom, sub-30 (Top 30) for BPI and Sagarin, and are going to be in the 23+ win range. Our home record as a stand alone means bupkis. It is integrated into other variables that are an aggregate, thus lessening the weight of that raw statistic.

    Can I make a request that everyone please review the criteria from all the links that have been provided, and throw out your opinions that do not reconcile with said criteria? It doesn't help progress the discussion.

  12. #87

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    Quote Originally Posted by GonzagasaurusFlex View Post
    I'm with roundup on this. That is just crazy talk. Losing sight of the forest due to the statistics trees. Why even watch the games if you believe stats alone determine the "better team"
    I'm not saying that. I am saying that all the games that have been played are just as important as the head-to-head matchups. I am using statistics that explain the other games we have watched being played. You guys have to stop treating my reference of stats the way you do, when you're using stats from the games against St. Mary's. It's contradictory. I'm not losing sight of the forest, I am focusing on more than just one tree. As I asked before, what if St. Mary's only two wins (the whole season) were against Gonzaga? That makes St. Mary's the better team? No. So, the head-to-head has to have limited to weight, and a certain context to which it is effective.

    We need to continue expanding our expertise and though processes as fans.

  13. #88
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    BPI and KenPom are more important to the committee than RPI, which isn't used until seeding. I think that if we win our last two games this weekend and make the conference championship game, we will be in. The thing about this year is that it is a very mediocre bubble so no bad losses and good numbers will help make the difference. Of course, the preferred method is to win the conference tournament.

    Quote Originally Posted by jkwhsu View Post
    Lunardi is wrong. We have 4 home losses, no signature wins and no wins against the RPI top 25, 1-3 against the top 50 and a dismal 2-7 against the top 100. There are so many teams with good wins and we have none. We are not getting in as an At-large bid this year.

    We must win the WCC tournament & get the automatic bid. I'm confident that we can do it. I can't see us losing to SMC 3 times this year.

  14. #89

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    BPI and KenPom are more important to the committee than RPI, which isn't used until seeding. I think that if we win our last two games this weekend and make the conference championship game, we will be in. The thing about this year is that it is a very mediocre bubble so no bad losses and good numbers will help make the difference. Of course, the preferred method is to win the conference tournament.
    Thanks, bro. Support for the sane side is appreciated, man.

  15. #90
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    FWIW:

    New Lunardi (2/25): Zags first out.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

    Bracket Matrix also has zags out (second out):

    http://bracketmatrix.com/

  16. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by jkwhsu View Post
    I can't see us losing to SMC 3 times this year.
    I can. If SMC follows their game plan and doubles down on Sabonis if Wiltjer goes cold.

    Or if their shooters go nuts.

  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by gonstu View Post
    FWIW:

    New Lunardi (2/25): Zags first out.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology



    Bracket Matrix also has zags out (second out):

    http://bracketmatrix.com/
    A WSU friend of mine sent that to me and made quite the pithy statement. He said if you're a high school senior or younger, you've never seen that!

  18. #93
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    I guess we may as well win tonight and Saturday.

    It's going to take 3 special games in a row.

    I'd also not mind seeing SMC lose a game this wknd and possibly passing them again.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  19. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by gonstu View Post
    FWIW:

    New Lunardi (2/25): Zags first out.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

    Bracket Matrix also has zags out (second out):

    http://bracketmatrix.com/
    Yea but with 2 wins this week we will be back in!

  20. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zags11 View Post
    Yea but with 2 wins this week we will be back in!
    Does a BYU win really carry that much weight though?

    It will be very tough but I will say zags are due to win a big game. Still, I would trade a win in Provo for a win in Vegas and another shot at the Gaels.

  21. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by gonstu View Post
    Does a BYU win really carry that much weight though?

    It will be very tough but I will say zags are due to win a big game. Still, I would trade a win in Provo for a win in Vegas and another shot at the Gaels.
    Nice meeting you tonight, Stu. I went back to your section at the half but didn't see you.
    soccerdud & CEO were in your section tonight. Nice seeing them too.

  22. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZagaZags View Post
    If Gonzaga can win the last two regular season games, we can hang our hopes on USF beating Saint Mary's in San Francisco, for GU to win the WCC title & #1 seed. The odds of this happening is probably very low. Saint Mary's has choked in the past...

    Don't we share the league title if we both win out? I know they get the number 1 seed though.

  23. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by gonstu View Post
    Does a BYU win really carry that much weight though?

    It will be very tough but I will say zags are due to win a big game. Still, I would trade a win in Provo for a win in Vegas and another shot at the Gaels.
    I think it would. If we have 23 wins, and win two in wcc tournament then we have 25 wins. Win or lose title game we will be in IMHO

  24. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zags11 View Post
    I think it would. If we have 23 wins, and win two in wcc tournament then we have 25 wins. Win or lose title game we will be in IMHO
    In that scenario, it will depend heavily upon how many upsets occur in conference tournaments. A bunch of upsets = no chance.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  25. #100

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    Quote Originally Posted by DixieZag View Post
    In that scenario, it will depend heavily upon how many upsets occur in conference tournaments. A bunch of upsets = no chance.
    This is one of the questions I have. And I just need to sit down and figure out how to determine the needed saturation based on our current positioning. With out "Big 3" rankings and how closely grouped they are, I have to think it would take an abnormal amount of upsets to take out spot away.

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