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Thread: Next year's hype is overblown. Please argue with me.

  1. #51
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    35-3 can't be used as a measuring stick.

    The 2015-2016 Zags have a WAYYYYY tougher schedule. Not even in the same ballpark to be compared overall.

    Its all about how well we're playing in March, and hopefully won enough games to make the Tourney.

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    Other than experience, which is huge of course, we upgrade at every position other than the wing IMO. Love Pangos and Bell, but we won't miss them too much by conference play. IMO Perks has more upside than Pangos and Emac is a better defender than Bell in terms of shutting down elite athletes at the point of attack. Our front court is obviously fine. My biggest question mark is who's our starting and back up wing. Draginis brought a lot to the table last year and if he starts, who can replicate that fresh look off the bench?
    Go Zags!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by 23zagmd View Post
    The premise that we have to be better than 35-3 to be considered BETTER is absolutely insane. I for one would take 31-7 with the caveat that we win our LAST game. That is BETTER to me!

    I think most people were saying 35-3 AND Elite 8. Obviously, I'd take 34-4 and Final Four and argue that was better. Or 31-7 and National champions. I also don't want to be 32-1 with our first loss the opening round of the tournament to a 16 seed.

    But 35-3 AND Elite 8 is a very high bar.

  4. #54
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    Our guard corps next year will not be inexperienced. They may not be veterans, but all but one have played major minutes in games last season. The only one without game experience is a redshirt and knows the system and players. We do not have a freshman out there.

    That is a testament to the way the staff has managed the roster to this point. Despite losing our starting 1,2&3 players, we replace them with experienced players.
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    It's not so much that the 1,2 and 3 are totally lacking in experience but the will be replacing a crew that between them, going into last season, had started about 100 games and played major minutes in those games. That kind of experience can only be acquired over several years. Granted that Duke won it all with freshmen guards but that is not often done.

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    I would disagree that McClellan is a better defender than GBJ but I also think that it a high plateau of comparison. I personally think the GBJ is the biggest loss for this team. We will be better upfront, which seems funny to type, but is true. I think that Perkins may end up matching elite athletes better than Pangos by March but there is alot of leadership that graduated there. I am comfortable with Dranginis/Alberts on the wing as well. In the end, I think this team may be better athletically and by March, may be better than last year.

    Quote Originally Posted by cjm720 View Post
    Other than experience, which is huge of course, we upgrade at every position other than the wing IMO. Love Pangos and Bell, but we won't miss them too much by conference play. IMO Perks has more upside than Pangos and Emac is a better defender than Bell in terms of shutting down elite athletes at the point of attack. Our front court is obviously fine. My biggest question mark is who's our starting and back up wing. Draginis brought a lot to the table last year and if he starts, who can replicate that fresh look off the bench?

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    Quote Originally Posted by hondo View Post
    It's not so much that the 1,2 and 3 are totally lacking in experience but the will be replacing a crew that between them, going into last season, had started about 100 games and played major minutes in those games. That kind of experience can only be acquired over several years. Granted that Duke won it all with freshmen guards but that is not often done.
    I really think that over the course of the season our guards will become seasoned and will be hitting their stride just at the right time. We will probably take some licks early on, but I think they will gel over the season. There is probably a large dollop of wishful thinking behind this, but Tom Izzo manages to do this year in and year out.
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  8. #58
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    All things being equal, I'll take talent over experience and it's my opinion that this new young backcourt is more talented then its predecessor. Experience will come.
    Quote Originally Posted by hondo View Post
    It's not so much that the 1,2 and 3 are totally lacking in experience but the will be replacing a crew that between them, going into last season, had started about 100 games and played major minutes in those games. That kind of experience can only be acquired over several years. Granted that Duke won it all with freshmen guards but that is not often done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by raise the zag View Post
    35-3 can't be used as a measuring stick.

    The 2015-2016 Zags have a WAYYYYY tougher schedule. Not even in the same ballpark to be compared overall.

    Its all about how well we're playing in March, and hopefully won enough games to make the Tourney.
    I am not so sure its a WAYYYY tougher schedule. I would say its almost slightly easier. Sure Pittsburgh and Tennessee on the schedule are better than Cal Poly and Sacramento State...... But if you look at it, its UCLA, Arizona (both at home) and SMU is on the road. That's slightly easier to me.

    Whether its Tennessee, or Pittsburgh or Sacramento State or Cal Poly, we are winning those games regardless. I really feel that the MSG Tournament is even with the Bahamas this year ... some teams are decent, others stink. Bout the same to me.

    I am just not seeing it man.
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    Quote Originally Posted by raise the zag View Post
    35-3 can't be used as a measuring stick.

    The 2015-2016 Zags have a WAYYYYY tougher schedule. Not even in the same ballpark to be compared overall.

    Its all about how well we're playing in March, and hopefully won enough games to make the Tourney.
    This is an absurd statement. We're gonna be preseason ranked top 10; surely you have higher expectations for this team than "making the tournament".

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    Until the new guards out perform KP, GBJ and BW I will remain tentatively optimistic.

    Quote Originally Posted by cjm720 View Post
    Other than experience, which is huge of course, we upgrade at every position other than the wing IMO. Love Pangos and Bell, but we won't miss them too much by conference play. IMO Perks has more upside than Pangos and Emac is a better defender than Bell in terms of shutting down elite athletes at the point of attack. Our front court is obviously fine. My biggest question mark is who's our starting and back up wing. Draginis brought a lot to the table last year and if he starts, who can replicate that fresh look off the bench?
    Some people have a way with words. Some people not have way.

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    Pretty much everything has been salted through, but I will add a little more detail on Dranginis and why he will improve given that he will finally get a chance to blow up as a 5th year senior, where he will be counted on more heavily than in the past.

    He has not been needed to be the man, but he very well could be. He can absolutely bang away from deep given more PT, which will inspire more confidence. Given his history as a starter in high-school, I see him able to ave. 40% plus from outside the perimeter.

    Let's also take another look at that High School pedigree, where among other things, he was lights out from three: "two-time Idaho Gatorade Player of the Year and a two-time Idaho State Player of the Year...senior season averaged 24 points, nine rebounds, five assists and two steals per game, leading the Hawks (22-5) to the Class 4A state final...scored a school-record 54 points on 20-for-26 shooting in game against Vallivue High in late November, 2011... junior year was four points shy of tying the Idaho State 4A Tournament record with 75 points in three games as Skyview finished fifth in the State tourney...averaged a team-high 20.3 points, 6.3 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 2.0 steals for the Hawks...sophomore season his layin with 28 seconds left in overtime proved to be the winning points in Skyview's 59-58 overtime victory over Pocatello for the Idaho State 4A title...averaged 10.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.4 assists, 1.6 blocks and shot 54.7 percent from the field...Skyview finished fifth at State his freshman season and he earned first-team All-Southern Idaho Conference honors. Maintained a 3.54 GPA...volunteered locally in Nampa on behalf of his church youth group and as part of a fundraising campaign to benefit breast cancer research...also recruited by Utah, Utah State, Boise State, Notre Dame, Washington State, Portland and San Diego.

    As a previous poster mentioned above....Draino def has the ability to pull a Sammy D in his 5th year.

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    I'm shocked how easily some here shrug off losing Pangos and Bell. Sure Perkins was good in a limited sample size, but the "He's the best freshman we ever had" talk is way overblown. Going from a senior, 4 year starter Pangos to Perkins is a huge downgrade at the PG spot. Perkins is going to have his struggles and I'm sure show flashes of brilliance as well, but overall we're going from one of the best, most poised lead guards in the country last year to an inexperienced freshman this year.

    Losing Bell hurts nearly as much as well. He was that elite role player that every team wishes they had. One of the best perimeter defenders in the history of the program and a reliable three point threat to open up the paint for our bigs. I personally think it will be McClellan as the starting 2 guard next year as he was playing over Melson at the end of the year, and just plain looked the better of the two from what I saw. EMac is the best athlete on the team and was a game changer on defense at times down the stretch last season, so defensively we'll be fine at the position. We're definitely going to miss Bell's shooting and basketball IQ though on offense.

    Overall our frontcourt should be good enough to make us a top 20 team, and I do like that fact that we have some good athletes in the back court that may make us more explosive/dangerous come March, but I agree with the OP that we won't be nearly as good as last years team. No shame in that, there's just no way I can sit here and pretend like we're not in a little worse shape from losing two 4 year starting guards.

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    I think this coming year looks great and here is why.

    KW improved markedly last year, just look at the first games and then look at the end of the year. better offense, passing and huge jump in rebounding. he is motivated and lifting weights this off season, look for improvement.

    PK is still trending up and will be more versatile.

    Edwards will be the surprise and will offer quality minutes with no fall off in play when he is in. by year end he will be challenging for the position.

    Sabonis is special and how high the bar can be set is a question mark, all I know is we have not seen that yet. If he develops a jumper he is a lottery pick.

    Perkins will be talked about by mid season in terms of being the best guard in the country. he will have a few rough games as he learns the ropes, but come March he will be way more than ready.

    Melson, McClelon, Draino and Alberts will surprise and will become solid. this is where the x factor that changes the season will come from.

    Few has taken a jump in his game and know can get us there.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    This is an absurd statement. We're gonna be preseason ranked top 10; surely you have higher expectations for this team than "making the tournament".
    Spy, not trying to be demeaning, but my hopes have only hinged on going deep in the tournament twice, since I've been around watching Gonzaga on a full time basis to start the season. One of those times was the 2008-2009 season. The other was last year.

    Next year is a bunch of unknowns, I can see why someone would say "hopefully make the tournament" .... I really don't think we will miss the tournament at all, especially with one of the top 2 frontcourts in the nation. The unknown is the backcourt. Sure we know Draino. Do we really know Melson, Perks, or Alberts? Some can say what they want about a small sample size for Melson and Perks, but do I feel reasonably comfortable that we can make a deep run with them? No I don't. Does that mean we can't make a deep run with them? Again, no it doesn't.

    I honestly think we will win somewhere between 26-29 games, and 30 if we are lucky. Does that translate into winning a game in the tournament? Again no. Its going to be super tough as always to win a game in the tournament.

    Making the tournament is something that shouldn't be taken for granted. Sure we SHOULD make the tournament, but one false misstep or injury can take a team that doesn't have a lot of depth in the backcourt and shrivel this team into a dang prune. We still will make the tournament, but I don't have much hopes for much after,

    UNTIL I see the players play.

    That's the other thing being missed here. We have not seen any of the three (Draino, Melson, or Perks) even start a game with consistency, nor have we even seen Alberts play one second of College Basketball.

    A lot of unknowns. People will argue if a player is an "unknown" because the player is not "unknown" but what I am saying is, that the player hasn't played in his spot that he's going to be playing at all during his collegiate career. That's my definition of unknown.

    I wouldn't be putting much expectations so far this year. Not yet.
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  16. #66
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    One of the more difficult things to do in college basketball if defer to your teammates when you are conditioned to be "the man" all your life. The RS on and off thing affected Melson. He was still learning and this coming year will be different for him also. We saw some glimpses of how good of a scorer he can be. Kyle D. Is also ready to step up. Perkins will be a great facilitator running the offense and Ez Mac and Albert will be solid. As others have mentioned - we will not be perfect - but by March we will have a very good team. If we can start the dance off in Spokane, it will be huge for confidence. Going to be a fun season.

    Go Zags

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    Really think that Perkins is going to make our front court even better. Just need Melson/mac/Alberts/dranginis to knock down outside shots to keep the D honest

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    Quote Originally Posted by mainer6 View Post
    Until the new guards out perform KP, GBJ and BW I will remain tentatively optimistic.
    Now that sounds prudent....I will do the same....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Worthington View Post
    I'm shocked how easily some here shrug off losing Pangos and Bell. Sure Perkins was good in a limited sample size, but the "He's the best freshman we ever had" talk is way overblown. Going from a senior, 4 year starter Pangos to Perkins is a huge downgrade at the PG spot. Perkins is going to have his struggles and I'm sure show flashes of brilliance as well, but overall we're going from one of the best, most poised lead guards in the country last year to an inexperienced freshman this year.

    Losing Bell hurts nearly as much as well. He was that elite role player that every team wishes they had. One of the best perimeter defenders in the history of the program and a reliable three point threat to open up the paint for our bigs. I personally think it will be McClellan as the starting 2 guard next year as he was playing over Melson at the end of the year, and just plain looked the better of the two from what I saw. EMac is the best athlete on the team and was a game changer on defense at times down the stretch last season, so defensively we'll be fine at the position. We're definitely going to miss Bell's shooting and basketball IQ though on offense.

    Overall our frontcourt should be good enough to make us a top 20 team, and I do like that fact that we have some good athletes in the back court that may make us more explosive/dangerous come March, but I agree with the OP that we won't be nearly as good as last years team. No shame in that, there's just no way I can sit here and pretend like we're not in a little worse shape from losing two 4 year starting guards.

    This is pretty much my take on things as well, well said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bartruff1 View Post
    Now that sounds prudent....I will do the same....
    Why would prudence impact anyone's thinking?

    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OZZY View Post
    This is pretty much my take on things as well, well said.
    Duke won the NCAA Tournament in March with three Freshmen starters. One was a point guard. IMO Perkins IS proven point-guard. McClelland is certainly a proven guard, and a very good one. He's going to be a senior next year. He WILL NOT have the same role next year, believe me. Silas Melson will be much better next year. Gonzaga will have the BEST front-court in the country next year. Let's see what else do you need to convince you, Tyra. I think Dranginis will be better than Wesley. I just have that feeling. I am thinking about how Sam Dower came alive his senior year once he was able to start. Dranginis will start at the 3, imo. The more I write the more I'm smiling. And like someone said, we're keeping our fingers crossed for a senior transfer or such.

    Good luck, Doc. I have confidence in your prediction though. Glad to see your confidence.
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    I will not be deterred. Yes a whole bunch of experience graduated with Pangos and Bell. I think the players in place will step in and fill roles and next year should be another strong campaign for GU. I'm not going to predict they will match last year's 35-3 record, but I don't believe that should be the standard for a good season. I think high 20's or around 30 for a win total is not at all out of the question.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tyra View Post
    The preseason chatter is all about GU making another deep run. I'm still waiting for something to happen to make that plausible. True, our entire front court is returning. But realistically, how much improvement will they make? And 60% of our starting lineup (the entire backcourt) is gone. Does anyone really think next year's team can get as far as this year's team unless there is an intervening event such as new personnel who can contribute immediately? Do people really believe that our new backcourt will be as good as KP, GBJ and BW? Seriously? Please talk me out of this point of view.
    I don't see any Kentucky, Duke or Wisconsin's next year so the chalk is weaker. Your feeling about the Zags next year are very accurate. I think Sweet16 would be the ceiling if things break right. JMHO

    They needed to add another shooter in the backcourt. Lee, Gibbs or Sulaimon were the big three guys to get on transfers. If the Zags added either of these 3 it would have really helped.

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    VEE VILL PREVAIL! Achtung!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Worthington View Post
    I'm shocked how easily some here shrug off losing Pangos and Bell. Sure Perkins was good in a limited sample size, but the "He's the best freshman we ever had" talk is way overblown. Going from a senior, 4 year starter Pangos to Perkins is a huge downgrade at the PG spot.
    Kevin Pangos, while one of the greats at Gonzaga was never going to be the PG to get this team to a NC, at least not during the time that he was in college basketball. We're not being genuine if we don't realize that his size, lack of athleticism, and quickness on both the offensive and defensive end of the court were going to make it difficult to win without superior bigs. He was integral, and he was able to impact the game in ways that some PG simply cannot. However, all the aforementioned issues were the reasons he was marginalized against Duke. Not to mention, it came down to KP being better at scoring when we had another guard handling the ball. So, he had plenty of things that could and did keep us from winning.

    This fan base has clung to the idea of the guard being the lead stallion for far too long. We have three forwards that will get drafted, and very likely all in the first round. Plus, they are adding another 7'1" center to the mix. No one has that depth. Not even close. That makes you more than a top 20 team, just there. Josh Perkins can still have flaws and this team be a national championship contender. Josh Perkins can still be flawed, and inexperience, and this current team still win a national championship.

    The word "experience" doesn't negate BPM, WS/40, or any other performance measurement. The only question we have to see with Josh, is how his efficiency responds to more minutes played. Did KP have a crazy high ORtg? Sure, but that EE game showed that some of his offensive and defensive statistics were because he didn't see certain guard types as often. Now, I agree, had they played in an actual basketball facility, we may have won that game. But sometimes those wrenches hit the gears. I would rather have a dynamic PG who can shoot .400 from 3, as opposed to a PG that has some athleticism/size/speed flaws and shooting .470.


    Quote Originally Posted by Worthington View Post
    Overall our frontcourt should be good enough to make us a top 20 team, and I do like that fact that we have some good athletes in the back court that may make us more explosive/dangerous come March, but I agree with the OP that we won't be nearly as good as last years team. No shame in that, there's just no way I can sit here and pretend like we're not in a little worse shape from losing two 4 year starting guards.
    This really isn't a fair comparison. Because we have seen one, and not seen the other. But after what I saw with against Duke, I'm as likely to take this upcoming team, as I did last year's.

    And guys, don't get me wrong. I'm not calling KP and GBJ moldy bread. They had great seasons. They were a part of the process that we will look back on and be able to tell our kids, grandkids, and great-grandchildren about. But people wanted to see a nuanced discussion, and this type of scrutiny is necessary. I personally tend to look at things from a coaching perspective, so it's going to come across as rather blunt and unfeeling at times. Lastly, if we really want to see this program progress, KP and GBJ can't be the pinnacle of Gonzaga guards. It always has to be getting better, one year after the next, one generation after the other.

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