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Thread: Next year's hype is overblown. Please argue with me.

  1. #1
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    Default Next year's hype is overblown. Please argue with me.

    The preseason chatter is all about GU making another deep run. I'm still waiting for something to happen to make that plausible. True, our entire front court is returning. But realistically, how much improvement will they make? And 60% of our starting lineup (the entire backcourt) is gone. Does anyone really think next year's team can get as far as this year's team unless there is an intervening event such as new personnel who can contribute immediately? Do people really believe that our new backcourt will be as good as KP, GBJ and BW? Seriously? Please talk me out of this point of view.

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    I think that Perks showed that he is very talented at point, and will only grow into Pangos' shoes. Melson is better than the flashes that he showed. His entire mindset changed overnight, and that's always hard to do. He will be a great replacement for GBJ. Draino will be Draino...at least as good as BW, with a better outside shot. Mac will be better with one year into the system, not feeling he has to prove something every time out. We don't know about Alberts, but he is supposed to be a lockdown defender and a stud.

    Karno will be better. Sabonis will be better. Wiltjer will be better. Edwards will be so much better. Rem has been really working on his air guitar!

    We will be almost as good to start and better to end.

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    Team will be better, much better. Deal with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Team will be better, much better. Deal with it.
    This.

    No one is replacing KP. No one. Ever. Case closed.

    That said, Perks is totally different. So is Silas. So is Alberts. Even Dranginis.

    Besides obvious front court, can't compare teams.

    Also, front court isn't necessarily, "all things equal". We have Edwards this season for 5-10 mins per game. This will be better, more stable option than Nunez for 3-5 mins per game. Give Karno a bit more rest and not worry so much about fouls. After 2 fouls, he played soft.

    Additionally, can't undervalue Sabonis' growth as well; both literal and figurative. He will step up his game and finally turn 19! His body, strength, skills are all growing.

    Both Edwards spot mins and Sabonis growth will help Karno and Kyle as well. No surprises up front, only stronger. Maybe better.

    Pangos gave Perks MAJOR props all season long. He is essentially a Freshman, yes, yet will be a better playmaker and higher ceiling.

    Silas struggled at times, yet outplayed everyone at times as well. Once he learns to pass the ball to an open teammate, he will explode on the scene. He is/was more of an offensive threat than GBJ could be due to injury, mindset, role, confidence, athleticism. Silas is a better overall athlete, almost as good of shooter, and has the attributes to be a solid defender as well.

    Wesley was tremendous at times, yet can't deny his inconsistency. He was very talented, yet clearly checked out of games as well. He will be missed. Not sure we have a player to replicate his slashing ability. Alberts is actually more athletic, a better 3pt shooter (by all accounts), and is a bouncy, active presence. Combining Dranginis IQ, effort, defense with Alberts ability to stretch the floor and make athletic plays, this combo could equal BW.

    We may not have a more "proven" backcourt, yet we have one with a higher ceiling for making plays, playing fast, taller, and better suited to match-up vs Blue Bloods. Simply no denying that.

    The grind it out WCC games or teams that switch defenses, this new group will struggle more, may panic more, may have more trouble with running offense, yet they will be exciting. Combined with what I believe is a BETTER front court given depth and Sabonis not even 19 yet…yes, I believe we CAN be better team in the long run.

    This is precisely the type of team to lose some head-scratchers, unlike Pangos and Bell, yet more likely peaking by the time February rolls around.

    As amazing as Pangos/Bell were, their teams stagnated in February in 3 of 4 seasons, including last year til Tourney time.

    Point is, we have a chance with unknown backcourt to be better. I believe it will take them some time. All things equal, we can't argue that we are taller, more athletic at every positions next year. That is exciting in itself.

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    Hopin' for better than a 4 seed (in the WCC Tourney).
    This post is for March Madness seeding purposes only.

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    I remember the Few quote back in March (I originally remembered it Feb) that our bigs were the reason our team was so dominant. Since all three of them will be better (by whatever varying degrees) I think we could win 20 with a backcourt of Marx and Lenin. Since our backcourt will be very very good I really don't see more than a handful of losses, if that, next year. In other words, in response to OP, the reason why next year's hype is not overblown is because we will return our most dominant players and add several wonderful pieces around them, (Perkins, a more seasoned Melson, EMac, Alberts (probably in limited minutes next year), I really liked Dranginis the last month of the season (sacrilege of sacrilege, I thought we were better with him on the floor than with Wesley occasionally--not all the time, but Kyle brought a different geist to the team)-- anyway, I think we will be better next year than this. I started thinking that in Jan/Feb during our mid-conference sleepwalking that culminated in our loss to BYU. I am still definitely leaning that way. Can't wait for next year.

    Few quote: Mar 10, 2015 ... "The Zags' post-game press conference featured Mark Few along with two of his bigs, ... "Our bigs are what separates us nationally," Few said."

    so cool that he said that-- not our vaunted backcourt, (who were great) but our bigs.
    Last edited by maineblackbear; 05-17-2015 at 10:49 AM. Reason: add the Few quote

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    I'm going to answer the question in a very different way. The 2015-16 Zags will be competing against a TOTALLY different field than the 14-15 version. Many teams had significant losses. Everybody that made the Final 4 will be completely different, I think just about all of the Elite 8 teams as well. Almost everybody has question marks, many teams have bigger questions than GU does. The key for the Zags is obviously improvement and maturation of the guards/wings, but it's not ridiculous to expect that from at least some of those players.

    Look at it another way. When has GU NOT had new, young players step up when they were needed? A freshman Harris and inexperienced RS soph Sacre quickly became a formidable interior duo. Raivio did almost nothing as a freshman, but when he was pushed into a starting role as a soph he responded big time. You can go on and on and on with other examples. Perimeter players will step up, the frontcourt is loaded, the beat will roll on for GU. I'm not worried.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tyra View Post
    The preseason chatter is all about GU making another deep run. I'm still waiting for something to happen to make that plausible. True, our entire front court is returning. But realistically, how much improvement will they make? And 60% of our starting lineup (the entire backcourt) is gone. Does anyone really think next year's team can get as far as this year's team unless there is an intervening event such as new personnel who can contribute immediately? Do people really believe that our new backcourt will be as good as KP, GBJ and BW? Seriously? Please talk me out of this point of view.
    We hung with and at few times were leading against the eventual national champs and that's with our backcourt not playing very good offensively. Our frontcourt is what kept us in that game so yes the hype is warranted. We're returning a more athletically talented backcourt next year with a higher ceiling. We're gonna drop some games because 1. the schedule will be tougher and 2. the inexperience in the backcourt could bite us from time to time.

    Someone in this thread mentioned that no one will be replacing pangos and yes that is true. Pango's goes down as one of our greatest PG's in GU's history but Perkins is a better pure point guard and the offense will flow very fluidly through him next year. The thing that will help next years crop of guards is they all have slashing ability so in games like the one against Duke when our shots weren't dropping the guards could drive to the hoop to create shots. Perkins, McClellan and Draginis are already good at this... would have like to see more of it from Melson and not sure yet whats in Alberts offensive arsenal

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    In all the speculation in this and most other threads, no one seems to factor in the rest of the world. We can have the best Zag team ever and if everyone else has too, nothing changes.

    Might need another thread on what the rest of college BB is doing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sage View Post
    In all the speculation in this and most other threads, no one seems to factor in the rest of the world. We can have the best Zag team ever and if everyone else has too, nothing changes.

    Might need another thread on what the rest of college BB is doing.
    Look 2 posts above yours.

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    Can't personally argue against original post... I believe the backcourt is the fuel that runs the engine (and I'm not just talking about point production, but running the plays and being able to feed the bigs in good spots), so until we see it in action, there's no telling how good this team can be.

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    We are discounting the role of experience here. I have no doubt that Josh and Silas are excellent players and very talented. However it has been noted that college basketball is a guards game and the Zags are not going to replace in one year the experience of Kevin and Gary. Do any of you remember Kevin's first game in Moraga? As good as Kevin is he had to learn from the wars of a complete season. Both Kevin and Gary grew each season and I would not expect our new guards to start off where Pangos and Bell were when they were even juniors. The new guard tandem will be tested every night out and if they are human they will stumble some games. That just the way it has always been.

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    One of the biggest benefits our guys have is the level of competition in practice---(we all know that this is not the same as a game --but it does help to play against the top competition more frequently).

    Perkins will be competing against NWG on a daily basis throughout the year--and that will be tougher competition than he will face in 80-90% of the games throughout the entire year.

    I see Perkins taking a big step moving forward in the year.

    You get a solid and confident lead guard and the rest will fall into place between Melson, Alberts, Dranginis and Easy Mac.

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    I think the frontcourt can definitely improve. Karnowski has improved every year he's been here. Wiltjer made a huge jump since he's been at Gonzaga. And as for Sabonis, he's only begun to become the player he can be. I actually think he might be the best player on the team next year.

    In the backcourt, I'd argue that Perkins and Melson have more raw talent and potential than Pangos and Bell. They just need experience. Next year's team won't be as good in November, but it might be better in March than last year.

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    I think next year the Zags will be as good or even better than last season. The frontcourt should be unstoppable. The proposed rule change allowing 6 fouls instead of 5 would be huge for Shem and Sabonis. They could play nasty the entire game. Wiltjer is going to be Wiltjer.

    The guards will all have at least one year of experience in Few's system and as mentioned above, are all taller and more athletic than KP and GBJ. Perkins is a great replacement for Pangos, although he may not be quite the 3pt threat. Melson should start at the 2 and be the new "volume" 3pt threat in the backcourt. KD is due to have a banner year offensively and on defense as well. The perimeter defense should be awesome and I'm looking forward to more steals and crowd pleasing dunks.

    The Zags lose some quality players but next year's squad is loaded and they have all played together for a season.

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    One of the things that helped our bigs the most last year was Gary and Kevin's noted ability to shoot threes and thus stretch the floor. I don't see our new guards as being at that level and I think our bigs will feel the difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tyra View Post
    The preseason chatter is all about GU making another deep run. I'm still waiting for something to happen to make that plausible. True, our entire front court is returning. But realistically, how much improvement will they make? And 60% of our starting lineup (the entire backcourt) is gone. Does anyone really think next year's team can get as far as this year's team unless there is an intervening event such as new personnel who can contribute immediately? Do people really believe that our new backcourt will be as good as KP, GBJ and BW? Seriously? Please talk me out of this point of view.
    All who have posted since the '14-'15 seasons ended have explained quite well why we believe the Zags will have another great season. Apparently, you don't read this board, Tyra. If you do read the posts here on GUboards and you are not convinced that the Zags will have a very good team next year, then I truly doubt that anyone could convince you. And there are writers and analysts outside of ZagNation who believe GU will have another GREAT season, and they have given their reasons for their opinions. You hold on to a belief that GU can't return to the Elete 8 or better because they are losing two very good guards. It's important to look at that,and I'm sure everyone has, or at least most here on our board. We have some pretty smart bloggers here. I think that what is coming back is more important,in this case, then who is leaving. One way of looking at how good a team will be is to look at how many players will play in the NBA. I believe that more players will make the NBA off of next years team than the numbers of those who played last year.
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    I agree Tyra...I doubt they will win as many games in the WCC or the non conference....or advance as far in the Tourney.

    Lost too much offense and defense and leadership (chemistry). Last year was very special.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hondo View Post
    We are discounting the role of experience here. I have no doubt that Josh and Silas are excellent players and very talented. However it has been noted that college basketball is a guards game and the Zags are not going to replace in one year the experience of Kevin and Gary. Do any of you remember Kevin's first game in Moraga? As good as Kevin is he had to learn from the wars of a complete season. Both Kevin and Gary grew each season and I would not expect our new guards to start off where Pangos and Bell were when they were even juniors. The new guard tandem will be tested every night out and if they are human they will stumble some games. That just the way it has always been.
    That's a good post.

    I agree. Except (you knew it was coming?) - think about the experience on the other end. You have a fourth year senior, a fifth year senior, a player who played pro against grown men and went through the grind last year. You've got a 5th year senior in Draings (2/3 combo?). So, yes, the back court is young, but maybe physically/athletically more talented and I think the tone will be set by the experience up front. I think the thing (besides experience) we'll miss the most is Kevin's 3 pt shooting ability.

    I think you are dead right about experience being a key. We'll just how to shift it from back to front, and hope that the clearly natural leader that Perk is, who watched Kevin all last year, can play a little above his years.

    I'm not sure I'll recognize a Zag team that walks out for the starting jump without Kevin and Gary out there.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  20. #20
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    The NCAA tournament field next March will be more wide open than it was this past season when 7 or 8 teams clearly separated themselves. There won't be a single team as good as the Duke team that knocked off GU in the elite 8 this past March. So GU doesn't have to be as good as they were last year in order to go on a big run.

    Also keep in mind that if GU gets a good enough seed, they will be able to play their first two games in Spokane Arena. I don't want to say that it's an automatic pass to the sweet 16, but it's close to it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    All who have posted since the '14-'15 seasons ended have explained quite well why we believe the Zags will have another great season. Apparently, you don't read this board, Tyra. If you do read the posts here on GUboards and you are not convinced that the Zags will have a very good team next year, then I truly doubt that anyone could convince you. And there are writers and analysts outside of ZagNation who believe GU will have another GREAT season, and they have given their reasons for their opinions. You hold on to a belief that GU can't return to the Elete 8 or better because they are losing two very good guards. It's important to look at that,and I'm sure everyone has, or at least most here on our board. We have some pretty smart bloggers here. I think that what is coming back is more important,in this case, then who is leaving. One way of looking at how good a team will be is to look at how many players will play in the NBA. I believe that more players will make the NBA off of next years team than the numbers of those who played last year.
    .
    Reborn you are too much! I can assure you that Tyra reads the board tirelessly. Also he is a subtle iand devious character and I think you perhaps misread his question. I believe he simply posting the obvious arguments why some may think we might not be better in order to get intelligent and thoughtful responses to counter those points. It's just a technique he uses. I assure you he very seldom misses anything. He is most often several points ahead in discussions that I have seen him in. But it's all in good fun, carry-on

  22. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by hondo View Post
    We are discounting the role of experience here. I have no doubt that Josh and Silas are excellent players and very talented. However it has been noted that college basketball is a guards game and the Zags are not going to replace in one year the experience of Kevin and Gary. Do any of you remember Kevin's first game in Moraga? As good as Kevin is he had to learn from the wars of a complete season. Both Kevin and Gary grew each season and I would not expect our new guards to start off where Pangos and Bell were when they were even juniors. The new guard tandem will be tested every night out and if they are human they will stumble some games. That just the way it has always been.
    Except that we got beat by a Duke team that had two freshman guards. Experience does matter, but that is limited in its efficacy. Talent will win the day, if used properly. Josh Perkins has a higher ceiling than KP, and he is certainly more dynamic. Melson will need to prove what he is about, but to be fair, he was thrown into things against the plan (unavoidably), and wasn't really given a ton of minutes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hogan View Post
    One of the things that helped our bigs the most last year was Gary and Kevin's noted ability to shoot threes and thus stretch the floor. I don't see our new guards as being at that level and I think our bigs will feel the difference.
    Bell was off more than he was on with respect to LD shooting all year. All four years. It's revisionist to say otherwise. KP was better but had major droughts since sophomore year. Not to say the new kids are better, we don't have enough data, but to say that their three point shooting was a major piece in last years success is to avoid the reality. And to Hondo, I don't think KP and Bell materially improved every year. KPs best year was soph year and GBs best was maybe freshman year. They were terrific players out of the box, I will say that. But to say they improved every year misses the point as well. If they did, with their freshman year as their base, they would be drafted. And they won't.

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    I'm in Coach Crazy's Camp.......

    I for one will be super disappointed if this team is not a notch better than last years team. I think two things make that happen:

    1. Sabonis is going to become a dominant player on the interior like we have never even imagined in this programs history. I'm expecting better passing out of his post play and an improved 18 ft jump shot that is going to make him almost unguardable at the college level.

    2. Our backcourt is finally going to be the upgrade athletically and size wise that will allow us to compete with teams like Duke who have tremendous guard play. I actually felt like not having Perkins in the Duke game caught up to us and KP with the constant ball pressure, size and depth and ultimately wore KP out. We lost that game because we didn't have Perkins, IMO, plain and simple.

    Quote Originally Posted by Coach Crazy View Post
    Except that we got beat by a Duke team that had two freshman guards. Experience does matter, but that is limited in its efficacy. Talent will win the day, if used properly. Josh Perkins has a higher ceiling than KP, and he is certainly more dynamic. Melson will need to prove what he is about, but to be fair, he was thrown into things against the plan (unavoidably), and wasn't really given a ton of minutes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Team will be better, much better. Deal with it.
    Tyra... when Jazz is sippin' the kool-aid... you can start believing.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

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