Gonzaga vs UCLA...predictions and other thoughts

[Reborn]

I thought I'd start this thread a day early. It's one of those "special" games that needs a little more time so a better discussion can take place. UCLA stands in the way, one more time, of Gonzaga reaching the Elite 8 for the second time. A lot has been said and written about UCLA being a better team now then they were earlier in the year. I think they have always been a good team, but not quite a great team. After all, they only lost one home game all year. They have had some bad losses, and I think that they are vulnerable to another bad loss Friday. ZagNation is ready to explode as the final seconds tick off the clock on Friday evening. We have waited so long for this game, and it's a great fact that it is UCLA that we need to break through. The Road to the Final Four still lies ahead of us, and this stopping place in Houston, Texas where we play UCLA could not have happened in a better way. When I first looked at the South Region I was really happy to see Duke in it, and almost as happy to see UCLA, and I did pick UCLA to reach the Sweet 16, and we all know why. And it happened, and I do thank God for allowing us to play them Friday night.

Gonzaga 83
UCLA 69

[stevet75]

If the Zags play like they did against Iowa, they could win by 19 - 20. I think it might be too much to ask them to play that well, two games in a row, and in a new environment.
Zags 79 UCLA 68.

[Zags11]

Morning, Reborn.

I see the Zags taking care of business. I see them making the E8, and getting to play on sunday.

Zags 84
Ucla 71

[gonzagafan62]

Good morning Reborn! I just want to say, when you get on "fire" in the NCAA Tournament and yo9u have multiple players that can step up, it usually doesn't cool off. So if UCLA is going to beat us, they are going to have to stop the full fledged Zags. I think UCLA reached their ceiling.

I am going with

Gonzaga 81
University of California Los Angeles 68

[Zag4Hire]

I just don't see it happening for the Bruins (I am not a Kool-Aid drinker as I still can't think they will get by Duke although my soul and heart tell me otherwise). I think this run for UCLA comes to an end. The Bruins really have to lock-down on KW and not allow him to get the ball. I think if there is any sloppy play similar to when the Zags started the 2nd half of the game vs the Hawks and isn't isolated to 5 mins of the game, it could get interesting. Zags also need to hit those FTs and not foul Alford on the 3 ball. Any attack vector (Bigs down low, KW in space, and guards off the bounce) will have the green light.

Medcalf is not only predicting Utah beats Duke (which is VERY believable but I would really want the Zags to have a shot at Duke) but Zags thrash UCLA by 20.

Gonzaga beats UCLA by 20: When these teams played in December, UCLA shot 47 percent from the 3-point line and still lost by 13. The Bruins were the most controversial addition to the field of 68 on Selection Sunday. A questionable finish against SMU in the opening round didn’t change that. But they played well in a win against UAB to reach the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive season. They are better than the team that lost to Gonzaga three months ago. But Gonzaga is better, too. Domantas Sabonis is slowly evolving into a Kelly Olynyk-like monster for Mark Few’s program. Gonzaga will get the win and advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1999, and the second time in school history.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/105883/10-bold-predictions-for-the-sweet-16-utah-upsets-duke

This is very possible but I will downsize expectations because I think UCLA will get in the 70s. By the time the horn sounds at the end of the 2nd half, it will be "Benihana Time" for Few & Co.

The New Tears of Joy (Gonzaga) 84
The New Tears of Sadness on Loop (UCLA) 72

[TravelinZag]

These Zags are the better team. The will not be intimidated. The will be ready. They'll have a good plan. If it doesn't work, or UCLA adjusts, the Zags will adjust. 2006 will be avenged. Zags advance to meet a team they have never defeated. Zags' year! Zags win! Margin is irrelevant. Go Zags!!

[LongIslandZagFan]

Bryce's Gang 168
KPang Crew 40

[gu03alum]

Bulldogs 85
bruins 68

[FlyZag]

Benihana leg humpers - 78
Ursus arctos berry eaters - 73

[BULLDOG#1]

It troubles me that pundits are claiming the zags will win by 20. UCLA is not the most talented team, but they are playing extremely well together right now and have a chip on their shoulder after the whole world acknowledged that they shouldn't even have made the field. They have decent bigs and Alford can really stroke it. It IS March Madness, so anything is possible. They will likely try different schemes vs the zags to ugly the game up in attempt to knock the zags out of any offensive rhythm. When they watch film of the tougher zag games this year, they'll see teams like San Francisco attempting to pull Karno and Bonus from the paint and then attack the rim in an attempt to draw fouls. This strategy has actually been pretty effective against the zags, especially if the refs are calling it ticky-tack.

Still, I think for this team to beat the zags, they have to play significantly over their heads and the zags have to play very poorly. The former is much more likely to happen than the latter. UCLA would likely need to hit a lot of threes -- and they are capable of doing so -- but Bell, Dranginis, and McClellan are playing great D right now and I think they will negate the perimeter for UCLA.

The zag bigs should rule inside. Looney is a quality big, but from what I've seen, he's more of a face-up guy and they rely on their other big to defend the post. This is a big mis-match in the zags favor. Welsh looks to be a solid front court player for UCLA, but I'm not sure he's seasoned enough to handle Karno or Bonus inside. Depth is an issue for UCLA, so the zags might try and turn it into a track meet and run more subs... but I think at least initially they'll start with the standard game plan of dumping everything down low to Karno and see if he can do some damage from the get-go.

If I had to predict, I'd say the zags by double figures with Wiltjer, Karno, and Bonus leading the way on offense and Bell and McClellan disrupting UCLA's backcourt.

[Zagger]

Attack Mode Texas Style! Methinks the Zags will be firing all chambers in this one but UCLA will slow them down a bit - not enough to win though as Zags D will keep the Bruins at bay.
Zags 77 - Bruins 66*
*If the Bruins can't slow the Zags down then Zags 88 - Bruins 66

[DZ]

I think we'll come out frustratingly slow. The pressure is pretty big, even though we're "playing with house money" (not according to seed) by getting over the hump, the fact it is "UCLA" in the way, while poetic, amps up the pressure quite a bit. I expect UCLA to zone a lot in order to protect their starting 5 from foul trouble. I think they'll play well and we'll play not quite as well as Iowa. But, we do have one thing we didn't when we played there - Mac. He's been key in defensive situations and getting Bell some rest, maybe even Kevin. I think that matters.

Eventually, we just workman-like pull away and win by 8, but think NDSU more than Iowa.

Zags 78
Not Zags 70

And, the workman-like is just fine, b/c we have a great past of playing the first game dull but effective, and then coming out in the next on fire.

[Zagceo]

I expect UCLA to zone a lot in order to protect their starting 5 from foul trouble.

Watched the UCLA game again last night from Dec …………………..Dickie V said 3 or 4 times UCLA can't stay in this zone its killing them. I hope they come out in zone and stay in zone.

[DZ]

Watched the UCLA game again last night from Dec …………………..Dickie V said 3 or 4 times UCLA can't stay in this zone its killing them. I hope they come out in zone and stay in zone.

Kinda cool, huh? Pick their poison? Go zone, protect the bigs from foul trouble, get rained on. Or, have Karno, Sabonis, and Wesley going right at their guys below and risk going into that thin bench in the first half.

[94zagoldwomanasherdsmen]

Gonzaga humiliates UCLA......89-65 Pundits react with gushing praise and then immediately begin explaining how in their ever-so-humble expertise that Gonzaga has reached its ceiling this year and congratulate us on a fine season bla bla bla....which pisses off the team royally and Sunday becomes another clinic.