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Thread: Early Line.....BYU over Gonzaga by 3.5

  1. #1
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    Default Early Line.....BYU over Gonzaga by 3.5

    Tough to win on the road...

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    Interesting...

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    Smile I like those odds

    I was figuring that BYU would be favored by 10 at least. To think their home court advantage is only good for a lousy 3.5 points seems to perk me up.

  4. #4

    Default Line similar to SMC game

    FYI...BYU opened at -3 for SMC. Bettors don't seem to have much faith in BYU at home when it comes to GU and SMC.

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    Welcome keywester...good point.

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    I hear the dogs barking . Go Zags!

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    Drew Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zag 77 View Post
    I was figuring that BYU would be favored by 10 at least. To think their home court advantage is only good for a lousy 3.5 points seems to perk me up.
    That is a good question: Is Vegas saying "GU & BYU are equal and giving BYU 3.5 for home team advantage? Or is Vegas saying "GU would be favored on a neutral court and is giving BYU more that 3.5 for home team adv?

    If you look at Sagarin, it seems BYU is getting 3.5 for home team advantage. If you look at RPI, it seems GU would be favored on a neutral court, and BYU is getting more than 3.5.

    Sagarin: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1112.htm

    RPI:
    http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...ngs/rpi/index1

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    Vegas isn't saying anything. The 3.5 spread is what Vegas predicts will attract equal money to both sides of the bet. From then on, it's up to the public to move the line with their bets. That's not the same as predicting the game. BYU with their huge following is often overbet.

    The 3 point home game margin is for Pro Football. It does not apply to most college basketball. Think about it. Why would you automatically attribute (3-3.5 pts) to every home team? Some venues are simply much more difficult to play in and the home point differential may be as high as 10 points for some teams. SMC and the Zags deserve a much higher Home Court Advantage than say San Diego or any other less intimidating places to play.

    I say on a neutral court, Zags are favored by 4-5 making the HCA for BYU worth 7.5-8 points.

  9. #9
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    What is the o/u?
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    I like being the underdogs.



    We have no hope, we are doomed...let the game begin

    Go Zags!
    “The true measure of a Jesuit education,” said former Superior General Peter-Hans Kolvenbach, “is not what our students do, but who they become.”

  11. #11
    Drew Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagpower View Post
    The 3 point home game margin is for Pro Football. It does not apply to most college basketball. Think about it. Why would you automatically attribute (3-3.5 pts) to every home team? Some venues are simply much more difficult to play in and the home point differential may be as high as 10 points for some teams. SMC and the Zags deserve a much higher Home Court Advantage than say San Diego or any other less intimidating places to play.

    I say on a neutral court, Zags are favored by 4-5 making the HCA for BYU worth 7.5-8 points.
    I agree with several of your points. My point about Sagarin is that he gives 3.52 points for "Home Advantage." In the past, I have seen 4 points as the average HCA for college basketball, but it is clear that such does not apply everywhere. The range is probably fairly large, something like 1 to 8+ pts.

    Edit: BYU's HCA is clearly above the average of 3.5-4 pts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    What is the o/u?
    147. Wow! That is a season high. Well, I have dipped back into the pool standing at 5-2 on the season but now seems as a good time as any. Both teams will try to open it up but both are not the high octane offenses we thought (Both BYU & GU are under in last 4 out of last 5 games and numbers don't look good for games over 140). I think this game is won at the free throw line and both seem to rely on the frontcourt presence. Unless you are getting the hook, I would stay away from the spread. I wouldn't be surprised if either team won but I would be surprised if both teams surpass 73 points each.
    IF YOU WANT A THING DONE WELL, DO IT YOURSELF. -NAPOLEON BONAPARTE

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    I'm going to Vegas tomorrow. Wish I were there today to bet on the Zags.

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    Default Off Topic

    One of the strangest lines I've seen this year was just a couple days ago, when #1 Kentucky was only favored by 10 at LSU. It appeared the bettors were giving LSU about a 15 point HCA. LSU had home losses to South Alabama by 4 and Virginia by 5.

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    Ken Pomeroy (subscription) predicts a final score of BYU 75, Gonzaga 72 and gives Zags a 39 percent chance of winning.

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    Default Z.Power

    I think that Vegas does say something...it seems to me that they would have to have a probable outcome in order to atract bets on both sides. Yes I know how they make their money, but if they are way off, they would get killed before they could adjust the line..

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    Quote Originally Posted by bartruff1 View Post
    I think that Vegas does say something...it seems to me that they would have to have a probable outcome in order to atract bets on both sides. Yes I know how they make their money, but if they are way off, they would get killed before they could adjust the line..
    It's a fine distinction that doesn't always apply and may not in this game but in the case of say Michigan v Pepperdine. The experts may think that Michigan is 10 points better but they know that that a certain number of bettors (like alumni) just bet their team...that skews the line in certain games.

    All of my Catholic friends bet Notre Dame when they are in Vegas no matter what the sport. They are betting with their hearts. Still alot of people that do that.

    Great show on Velocity TV called the Linemakers featuring 5-6 of the guys that actually set the opening line. They all give their predictions on the games indicating thay believe the line to be wrong. If they set the line, they would have no pick in the game as the line would be their pick.

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    Default Off thread....more betting

    Z.Power ....Reits getting much love this morning, Bernanke et al. Dividends expected to go up as revenues are growing at 5-10 %... possible price increase... people who bet with their heart are at great risk of losing their money...not prudent

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    I'd take the zag plus points and over. Normally I'd bail on that high of an over, but got a feeling this will be a barnstormer.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  20. #20
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    Default That is probably right..

    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I'd take the zag plus points and over. Normally I'd bail on that high of an over, but got a feeling this will be a barnstormer.
    BYU is not Butler, the only time I saw them play any defense this year was in the 2nd half against the Gaels...I imagine they will at least start with their zone...

  21. #21
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    Default Said better than I can

    From Linesmaker.com

    Las Vegas betting odds are an intricate science. For starters, oddsmakers do not rely simply on statistical and numerical formulas to come up with point spreads. In addition to scrutinizing external elements like weather and locker room brawls between players, Las Vegas betting odds are concluded based on how many people are betting, not necessarily on who they think will win the game. This presents an opportunity for smarter gamblers to lay down high percentage bets and fatten their bankrolls.
    Just like the stock market, the smart money will take advantage of the inefficiencies of the sports betting market.

  22. #22
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    This thread makes me want to bet. I'll take the Zags with the 3.5 free points.

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    Points get laid, money gets made.

    Don't think this team can go into an environment like BYU and win.

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    Tend to agree with Zagger, I have my doubts that this team is ready to go in and win this game.

    Only thing that brings me a little optimism is that they have played one game in 10 days, we could see an entirely different team, different looks - we rarely have a lay-off like that, maybe it will be like the St. John's game. Lots of prep time, must win game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DixieZag View Post
    Only thing that brings me a little optimism is that they have played one game in 10 days, we could see an entirely different team, different looks - we rarely have a lay-off like that, maybe it will be like the St. John's game. Lots of prep time, must win game.
    But with Pangos and Edi sick, and Dower and Bell with sore hips, not a good sign. And we also have rough starts after a long lay-off, and can't get down big. And I agree with both Zagger and your first part, that this team just doesn't have it YET to win this one.
    11 cheers for binary!

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