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Expectations ( After the UNC S-16 Game )
Surfmonkey89 does a H.O.F. job in this post:
Great dose of perspective, Surf. Well Done !
Last night's game was a great gauge of our progress of our program, and the reality is that we need to reset our expectations.
Look, there are a handful of schools that are expected to compete for the national championship year in and year out. Where I'm sitting those are: UNC, Duke, Memphis, UConn, Louisville, Kentucky and maybe UCLA and Kansas.
The next level are those that are perennially Top 10 and are trying like heck to get to the Final Four. Those are typically the best of the BCS conferences: Pitt, Villanova (great coach), Oklahoma, Indiana, Michigan St, Syracuse, Arizona, maybe a couple others. Top programs that can occasionally put together a team that can win it all.
The point isn't nailing the exact list. The point is: look at that list! There's your Top 15 or so programs right there.
We're in the next tier. I would define our group as Top 15-20 programs that every few years or so can put together teams that can get into the Top 10. We need to pick off a few recruits from the teams listed above to get to their level. That's not going to be easy, but it's possible. And even if we get 1-2 it's doubtful we'd be able to do it year in and year out.
So what does that mean for us?
Right now we're a perennial Top 15-20 program. Making the leap to Top 10-15 program is the logical next step, and will incredibly difficult if not impossible. Being a perennial Top 10 program is really out of the question. Look at that list folks. We don't have the conference, budget, location, or willingness to lower our academic standards needed to get there.
Our goals should always be to win the conference, win the tourney, get a protected seed, and get to the Sweet 16. Once you're in the Sweet 16 all kinds of things can happen, and if we're lucky enough to have put together one of those top 10 teams maybe we can make a deeper run.
Expecting the Final Four is unrealistic, and expecting next year's team to go further is unrealistic in the extreme. It's unfair to the players and coaches that are working to hard to continue (and advance) the great success of the program.
Finally, I'm sure many people will read this and think I'm being negative, or a doomsayer, or whatever. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Looking at KenPom, there are 344 schools. The fact that we're in the top 20 is amazing and something to be immensely proud of. Next time we get all uppity about the fact that our team might not be good enough to make the Final Four we need to consider that there are over 320 schools looking up at us.
We're incredibly lucky to be where we are today. We should spend more time appreciating what we've accomplished instead of projecting our fairy-tale fantasies on a bunch of kids and program that are already overachieving, then ripping them a new one when they don't meet those fantasies.
Win the conference. Win the tourney. Get a protected seed. Get to the Sweet 16 and hope for the best.
Seems like a pretty nice life.
Fromwaydowntownbang,
Surf
Look, there are a handful of schools that are expected to compete for the national championship year in and year out. Where I'm sitting those are: UNC, Duke, Memphis, UConn, Louisville, Kentucky and maybe UCLA and Kansas.
The next level are those that are perennially Top 10 and are trying like heck to get to the Final Four. Those are typically the best of the BCS conferences: Pitt, Villanova (great coach), Oklahoma, Indiana, Michigan St, Syracuse, Arizona, maybe a couple others. Top programs that can occasionally put together a team that can win it all.
The point isn't nailing the exact list. The point is: look at that list! There's your Top 15 or so programs right there.
We're in the next tier. I would define our group as Top 15-20 programs that every few years or so can put together teams that can get into the Top 10. We need to pick off a few recruits from the teams listed above to get to their level. That's not going to be easy, but it's possible. And even if we get 1-2 it's doubtful we'd be able to do it year in and year out.
So what does that mean for us?
Right now we're a perennial Top 15-20 program. Making the leap to Top 10-15 program is the logical next step, and will incredibly difficult if not impossible. Being a perennial Top 10 program is really out of the question. Look at that list folks. We don't have the conference, budget, location, or willingness to lower our academic standards needed to get there.
Our goals should always be to win the conference, win the tourney, get a protected seed, and get to the Sweet 16. Once you're in the Sweet 16 all kinds of things can happen, and if we're lucky enough to have put together one of those top 10 teams maybe we can make a deeper run.
Expecting the Final Four is unrealistic, and expecting next year's team to go further is unrealistic in the extreme. It's unfair to the players and coaches that are working to hard to continue (and advance) the great success of the program.
Finally, I'm sure many people will read this and think I'm being negative, or a doomsayer, or whatever. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Looking at KenPom, there are 344 schools. The fact that we're in the top 20 is amazing and something to be immensely proud of. Next time we get all uppity about the fact that our team might not be good enough to make the Final Four we need to consider that there are over 320 schools looking up at us.
We're incredibly lucky to be where we are today. We should spend more time appreciating what we've accomplished instead of projecting our fairy-tale fantasies on a bunch of kids and program that are already overachieving, then ripping them a new one when they don't meet those fantasies.
Win the conference. Win the tourney. Get a protected seed. Get to the Sweet 16 and hope for the best.
Seems like a pretty nice life.
Fromwaydowntownbang,
Surf
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