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View Full Version : Bracketology Feb 8, 2008...Zags # 8 now



MDABE80
02-08-2008, 06:09 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

bartruff1
02-08-2008, 06:17 PM
Makes sense...they might just win out till they get there and move up a couple spots...

JAGzag
02-08-2008, 06:30 PM
We're doomed! We've never done ANYTHING positive above an 8th seed in the Tourney ... have we? :)

zag67
02-08-2008, 06:50 PM
I agree wtih BART. We win out and then would move to a 6 or 7. The main key is hopefully we can enjoy the journey. There will be some close games.

rennis
02-09-2008, 07:58 AM
This is based on our RPI plummeting.

My feeling is we'll be looking at a 10 seed in the tourney with the auto bid. If we need an at large we'll get an 8 or 9 seed.

omahazag
02-09-2008, 10:31 AM
What i'd do for the zags to come to omaha for the tourney.....i have my tickets already, just need the zags to come out here!

BobZag
02-09-2008, 10:41 AM
5 or 6 seed if we win out.

zagzilla
02-09-2008, 10:56 AM
Need to avoid the #1 seed in the second round to maximize our chances to advance to the second weekend.

That means we don"t want an 8 or 9 seed. Anything else is fine. 5, 6, or 7 is fine. So is a 10.

rennis
02-09-2008, 10:57 AM
5 or 6 seed if we win out.

I'll politely disagree. With our season record and RPI weakening daily, we'd be lucky to land a 7 under the best circumstances. There are a lot of very good teams fighting for those 5 and 6 seeds (including the Cougs at this point.)

My feeling is if we win out (or come close) and get the auto bid, we'll get a 10 seed. Maybe even a 12 depending on locations and match-ups.

I am certain that whichever team doesn't win the auto-bid, whether it be us or St. Marys, is going to be getting a "last-in" gift of an 8 or 9 seed, with a nearly impossible 2nd round matchup.

All that matters is getting in though. We've proved that....Go Zags!

MickMick
02-09-2008, 12:38 PM
I wouldn't mind a 9 seed and a rematch with UCLA. I am confident the Zags get the auto bid and that may compensate for the sinking RPI.

More than seeding, it is the matchups that matter. Zags need to face up-tempo teams to advance. (I know UCLA doesn't fit that style)

rennis
02-09-2008, 12:59 PM
I wouldn't mind a 9 seed and a rematch with UCLA. I am confident the Zags get the auto bid and that may compensate for the sinking RPI.

More than seeding, it is the matchups that matter. Zags need to face up-tempo teams to advance. (I know UCLA doesn't fit that style)


there are a lot of up-tempo 1 and 2 seeds in the tourney that scare me this year...we've proven teams like Memphis and Tennessee aren't our cup of tea either. :(

GoZags
02-09-2008, 01:00 PM
This is based on our RPI plummeting.

My feeling is we'll be looking at a 10 seed in the tourney with the auto bid. If we need an at large we'll get an 8 or 9 seed.

Huh?

Since Jan. 19 (USD) here is GU's RPI (per Jerry Palm's collegerpi.com premium) after each game.

30
35
30
33
34
31 (after St. Mary's loss)
34 today

Don't quite see the recent "plummet".

If the Zags take care of business they'll get a 6 or 7. If they don't it'll be somewhere 8-10. At least that's my opinion.

CDC84
02-09-2008, 01:03 PM
I predict a 6-7 seed (5 if they are really, really fortunate) if Gonzaga wins out because of the fact that St. Mary's is ranked at 22 in the RPI right now, and I don't see them losing another game until they come up to Spokane. If GU beats them in Spokane, they'll get a meaningful top 50 (perhaps top 25) RPI win. And if SMC gets by USD in the WCC semis, GU has yet another shot at a top 50 RPI win. Also, rightly or wrongly, the committee likes teams who are "hot" coming into the tournament. GU would be 9-1 in their last 10 entering the tourney, with their only loss being an OT game at SMC where the Gaels will probably be undefeated this year.

Wazzu better start winning games or they will have a much worse seed than Gonzaga will. I could see them picking up 5 more losses between now and the start of the Pac 10 tourney if they keep playing like they are right now. What's alarming is that they have now lost 3 in a row.....and all of them have been home games. And they are darn lucky they haven't lost 6 in a row.....they came very, very close to losing at ASU.

Keep in mind the 2003 Gonzaga team. They got an at large bid as a 9 seed in that tourney with a 23-8 record, and a worst strength of sked out of league and in league than this year's team will end up with. The 2003 crew won the regular season WCC title, but lost to San Diego in the WCC tourney. If Gonzaga wins out this year, they will likely have 3 more top 50 wins than that 2003 team, two less losses, no really bad losses within league or outside of it, two losses coming without 2 of their starters, and be 9-1 entering the tourney. Plus they will be the regular season and postseason WCC champs. I just don't see that as being the resume of a 8/9 seed. Right now, they do look like an 8/9, but they can do things to better that.

rennis
02-09-2008, 01:56 PM
Right now, they do look like an 8/9, but they can do things to better that.

that's what I'm getting at. Past performance is an indicator of future results. The team needs to improve (and they can) if they want to get off that 8/9 line.

As indicated ^ The RPI is doing okay but both GUs and SMC's RPIs will drop as we play more WCC teams, especially as the teams above us in the RPI play teams with good RPI ratings. I still say the team is more likely to get a 10 than a 7 or higher. Before we started conference our RPI was in the 20s, correct? We're already down to 35. That's probably going down further, whether we like it or not.

I'm calling it now, we aren't going to get much respect on Selection Sunday without a single marquee win under our belt (although UConn is helping...but they'll find a way to sell that short ;) )

MickMick
02-09-2008, 07:44 PM
there are a lot of up-tempo 1 and 2 seeds in the tourney that scare me this year...we've proven teams like Memphis and Tennessee aren't our cup of tea either. :(

You are talking about 1 and 2 seeds here. The Zags don't matchup favorably against any 1 or 2 seed. But since they might have to eventually play one, they match up better against an up-tempo style.

CDC84
02-10-2008, 12:50 AM
I still say the team is more likely to get a 10 than a 7 or higher.....I'm calling it now, we aren't going to get much respect on Selection Sunday without a single marquee win under our belt (although UConn is helping...but they'll find a way to sell that short

I think you are underestimating the committee and how much better they have gotten in recent years at seeding the field. It's part of the reason why we are seeing less and less upsets, and why really good teams outside of the BCS leagues are getting better seeds, etc.

The primary job of the committee is protect the higher seeds in the tournament. That means seeding the field correctly. The teams seeded 7-10 are crucial, and they tend to be seeded with many more factors in mind than what kind of "marquee" wins they have...often because they actually don't have any. The committee also starts factoring in quality losses, injuries, and dare I say it, even the raw talent on your roster at times. This is because they want to do everything they can to make sure the teams on the top 4 seed lines make it to the second weekend...especially when it comes to their top 8 teams. If they don't do that, they are not doing their job.

If Gonzaga wins out, and they get a 10 seed, that is not fair to any 2 seed that will be in this tournament. They would be absolutely screwing a 2 seed by doing that. The committee knows that. If you asked a 2 seed type team like Tom Izzo and Michigan State who they would like to face in the second round, it wouldn't be a Gonzaga team that's 9-1 entering the tournament with a 26-6 record that has a boat load of really good players, has some NBA talent, and has proven it can hang and battle with some of the best teams in the nation, even in defeat, on road/neutral floors. If Izzo got that he would be pissed. He would much rather take on someone like Rhode Island....a team that is more likely to get the 10 seed type treatment.

There is WAY too much being made of Gonzaga's supposed lack of "marquee" wins. ESPN Bracketology has given 8 or 9 seeds to these teams: Vandy, Clemson, Mississippi, and Ohio State.

Where are their marquee wins?

Vandy's best win is against UMass at home. Clemson's best win is against North Carolina State at home. Ohio State's best win is against Syracuse on a neutral floor. Mississippi's best win is against Vandy at home.

None of these wins are nearly as impressive as Gonzaga's win over UConn in Boston. And Vandy's win over UMass isn't as impressive as GU's win over St. Joe's on the road...a team that has beaten UMass twice this season.

The fact of the matter is that there will be several teams in this year's tournament in that 7-10 seed group that lack any "marquee" wins. Just like there were last year and the year before it. It's the single most overrated and overused standard that analysts use to judge teams when it comes to seeding low seeded teams, and also when it comes to choosing which teams get in and which teams don't. In fact, the committee has a history of excluding teams from the field that have a couple of marquee wins but who did little else to impress anyone.

MontanaZag
02-10-2008, 07:55 AM
NO CHANCE we are a 10 seed, and no chance the cougs are a 6. What planet are you living on???