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View Full Version : Final Seven WCC Games - Predict Our Record



Akzag
02-08-2008, 04:54 PM
Cuz polls are fun ...

Pepperdine
Loyola Marymount
@ San Francisco
@ San Diego
@ Portland
St. Mary's
Santa Clara

former1dog
02-08-2008, 04:58 PM
Sticking with my original prediction, which was 13-1 overall. That means we got to win the rest of them from here on out.

Biggest challenge, at USD.

Second biggest challenge is a tie, St. Mary's in K2 and at USF.

NorthWestZag
02-08-2008, 05:07 PM
only bumps in the road may be @ USD and vs SMC. The other five should not even be close. USF is not that good of a team, we just played a horrible game (I hope). We should bring it against Santa Clara to avenge last years loss in the MAC.

Reborn
02-08-2008, 05:13 PM
At the beginning of conference play I predicted one defeat, and we've had it. I think we go the rest of the way undefeated. I also think we NEED TO. I do not LIKE our seeding in the NCAA's right now on Bracketology, and I fear that we could go in as an 8 or 9 seed if we do not WIN OUT. 8 and 9 seeds are the worst seeds possible, as was pointed out in a thread this morning posted by ZagNative. Only one time has an 8 seed made the Sweet 16. Why? Because they play a #1 seed the second game.

I am really hoping for a 6 seed or a 7/10. To get these kinds seeds I think we need to win the rest of our games. I am one person who really believes big time that it really does matter where you are seeded in March and who it is you play. They way we play the rest of the way will have a lot to do with these things....so Zag fans. Get your minds set for going the rest of the way undefeated. Let no doubt enter your minds. It's time now to BELIEVE.

Bocco
02-08-2008, 05:24 PM
We should be able go the rest of the way undefeated. But, I'm not sure it will happen. Letting large leads in games at home slip away to both USF and USD creates some uncertainty about how we will do on the road against both teams. Suspect St. Marys will be a hard fought game in the Kennel.

recordeditor
02-08-2008, 05:30 PM
8 and 9 seeds are the worst seeds possible, as was pointed out in a thread this morning posted by ZagNative. Only one time has an 8 seed made the Sweet 16. Why? Because they play a #1 seed the second game.



This is not true. #8 seeds have made the sweet sixteen way more often than that. In fact, in 2000 two #8 seeds made the final four in the same year (Wisconsin, UNC). Villanova won the national championship as an #8 seed!

MickMick
02-08-2008, 10:58 PM
I predicted an undefeated conference record from the beginning. I'm not going against that now regardless of who is wearing the whistle.

ZagNative
02-09-2008, 07:33 AM
This is not true. #8 seeds have made the sweet sixteen way more often than that. In fact, in 2000 two #8 seeds made the final four in the same year (Wisconsin, UNC). Villanova won the national championship as an #8 seed!
Reborn's thinking of the record for 9 seeds, which is indeed just one Sweet 16 appearance since 1999. 8 seeds have four, but as you can see on this thread (http://www.guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?t=9594), an 8 seed is not desirable.

Anyway, I am going with Pomeroy's Schedule predictions for our remaining games, which has our probability of winning very high. No more losses:

http://img111.imageshack.us/img111/6765/20080209aschedulemorninsa9.jpg

Reborn
02-09-2008, 10:07 AM
Thanks ZagNative. Very nice Post on Pomeroy's stuff. How accurate do you feel he is? I see you using his material quite a bit here. Have you followed his success rate for the Zags' games. If I remember correctly he did have St. Mary's as the favorite. I think our success rate was like 48% which is really accurate. I wonder if he was the one who paid off the refs?:D Completely kidding of course....;)

ZagNative
02-09-2008, 10:24 AM
Pomeroy uses some kind of mathematical probability model. Periodically, I take another run at understanding it, but my eyes glaze over, and I begin babbling even more than usual, and then I have to take to bed for a week with cold compresses on my forehead from mental strain, so I wise up and don't do that again for a long time but nevertheless cite the stuff like I understand it.

Fools people most of the time, until some wise guy named Reborn has to stir the p.o.t. by asking a question....:(

Reborn
02-09-2008, 10:32 AM
ZagNative: Ohhhhh! You've hurt my feelings....:p

It's interesting though that you use that discription of me....my dad used it once in awhile too........Like, "Oh!!! Here comes Mr. Wise Guy." :D But my dad really loved me so???????????

ZagNative
02-09-2008, 10:35 AM
Yeah, that term is something your dad and I picked up back in our days in the Mob.

RenoZag
02-09-2008, 11:58 AM
This is not true. #8 seeds have made the sweet sixteen way more often than that. In fact, in 2000 two #8 seeds made the final four in the same year (Wisconsin, UNC). Villanova won the national championship as an #8 seed!

#8 Seeds have knocked off #1 seeds in the second round 9 times since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

1985: Villanova over Michigan
1986: Auburn over St. Johns
1990: North Carolina over Oklahoma
1996: Georgia over Purdue
1998: Rhode Island over Kansas
2000: UNC over Stanford, Wisconsin over Arizona
2002: UCLA over Cinncinnati
2004: Alabama over Stanford

UTEP ( 1992 ), Boston College ( 1994), and U.A.B (2004) are the only 9 seeds to knock off a # 1

When it comes to 2nd round game Winning % by seed, 10 seeds (48.6%) and 12 seeds (48.3%) have better winning % than 7,8,9, & 11 seeds.

jpwils
02-10-2008, 09:22 AM
Zags will win out.
San Diego game will be tough one...will need Heytvelt to dominate that one.

Two teams get into Big dance from WCC this year.

If for some reason they lose one more...bad news.

CarolinaZagFan
02-10-2008, 09:31 AM
HAHA I want to know who predicted 1-6??????