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azzagfan
01-21-2008, 06:15 PM
Here is the running total of this season's plus/minus for the games that can be tracked (games on ESPN aren't on Gametracker and thus can't be calculated unless you sit and keep the stats during the game):

The following games are included: Montana, Idaho, UC Riverside, Northern Colorado, CS Northridge, WSU, Georgia, Utah, St. Joseph's, Loyola Marymount and USD

Downs 160 (i.e. the Zags have outscored their opponents by 160 points when Downs is in the game)
Pargo 157
Daye 142
Bouldin 94
Pendergraft 81
Gurganious 72
Heytvelt 58
Kuso 56
Gray 37
Sacre 25
Foster 15
Sorenson 15
Brown 14
Davis 3

Since Heytvelt/Gray's return:

Heytvelt 58
Downs 49
Bouldin 27
Pendergraft 22
Pargo 20
Daye 19
Gray 15
Brown 7
Sorenson 5
Gurganious 4
Sacre 3
Kuso -14 (i.e. the Zags have been outscored when Kuso is in the game by 14 points)

wazZag
01-21-2008, 06:23 PM
VERY interesting, thanks for posting. Sheds new light on Downs.

Seems like a useful statistic to determine whether a person's defensive (or offensive) prowess outweighs their insufficiencies on the other end. Good stuff.

bzzz61
01-21-2008, 06:29 PM
Downs
Pargo
Daye
Bouldin
Pendo

That's really not a bad lineup. It would have to be against a smaller team since Pendo would have to guard the 5. The flip side is that this is a lineup that could run the other team into the ground.

Thanks for doing this work azzag. It really provides a nice perspective.

Rubbadub
01-21-2008, 08:39 PM
Here is the running total of this season's plus/minus for the games that can be tracked (games on ESPN aren't on Gametracker and thus can't be calculated unless you sit and keep the stats during the game):

The following games are included: Montana, Idaho, UC Riverside, Northern Colorado, CS Northridge, WSU, Georgia, Utah, St. Joseph's, Loyola Marymount and USD

Downs 160 (i.e. the Zags have outscored their opponents by 160 points when Downs is in the game)
Pargo 157
Daye 142
Bouldin 94
Pendergraft 81
Gurganious 72
Heytvelt 58
Kuso 56
Gray 37
Sacre 25
Foster 15
Sorenson 15
Brown 14
Davis 3

Since Heytvelt/Gray's return:

Heytvelt 58
Downs 49
Bouldin 27
Pendergraft 22
Pargo 20
Daye 19
Gray 15
Brown 7
Sorenson 5
Gurganious 4
Sacre 3
Kuso -14 (i.e. the Zags have been outscored when Kuso is in the game by 14 points)

WELL DONE!

bzzz61
01-22-2008, 05:09 AM
That would be a dumb lineup to have on the floor (especially where running the floor is concerned) unless Heytvelt is injured or in foul trouble.

What exactly is dumb about this lineup? Pargo and Bouldin can both bring the ball up. All five of them can drive (Pendo less than the others) or pull out for the 3. Pendo, Downs and Daye can all crash the boards. Pendo can guard the big man (provided he's not a true 5, which I mentioned earlier). Downs and Daye can frustrate passing lanes with their incredible reach. All 5 of them can fill the lanes on fast breaks. I'm confused about what is dumb about this.

Rubbadub
01-22-2008, 06:08 AM
Downs
Pargo
Daye
Bouldin
Pendo

That's really not a bad lineup. It would have to be against a smaller team since Pendo would have to guard the 5. The flip side is that this is a lineup that could run the other team into the ground.

Thanks for doing this work azzag. It really provides a nice perspective.

None of them could guard a 5, real or otherwise. Pendo could try, but he'd pick up fouls early and often without being any real threat of blocking shots. Why are you ignoring the second half of the post anyway? JH is the one who makes the greatest impact on the game, +/- wise..and he's still not 100%.

bzzz61
01-22-2008, 06:58 AM
None of them could guard a 5, real or otherwise. Pendo could try, but he'd pick up fouls early and often without being any real threat of blocking shots. Why are you ignoring the second half of the post anyway? JH is the one who makes the greatest impact on the game, +/- wise..and he's still not 100%.

I full heartedly agree that Josh is the best of both worlds. Having him totally changes the look of a game and as you point out, he's leading the team in +/- since he came back. I'm just saying that without him, the lineup I mentioned is an interesting one imo. Josh can't play every minute, I think that Kuso is getting better but he's still an offensive liability, Sacre is young and Will is hurt. It's obviously not a lineup that you could or would want to play a whole game with but for short stretches it would be fun to watch. The obvious weakness is if the other team has a true 5 out there which you pointed out as did I.

This is why I really appreciate the +/- argument. It gives a different perspective and at least helps me think outside the box.

Rubbadub
01-22-2008, 07:19 AM
I'd still rather Kuso or Sacre were in, offensive liabilities noted, against virtually any competition rather than no center at all.

azzagfan
01-22-2008, 06:35 PM
Downs 170
Pargo 158
Daye 153
Bouldin 94
Pendo 80
Gurganious 72
Kuso 63
Heytvelt 59
Gray 42
Foster 25
Sacre 15
Sorenson 15
Brown 15
Davis 3

Since Heytvelt/Gray's return:
Downs 59
Heytvelt 59
Daye 30
Bouldin 27
Pargo 21
Pendo 21
Gray 20
Brown 8
Sorenson 5
Gurganious 4
Sacre 3
Kuso -7

Rubbadub
01-22-2008, 07:31 PM
Downs 170
Pargo 158
Daye 153
Bouldin 94
Pendo 80
Gurganious 72
Kuso 63
Heytvelt 59
Gray 42
Foster 25
Sacre 15
Sorenson 15
Brown 15
Davis 3

Since Heytvelt/Gray's return:
Downs 59
Heytvelt 59
Daye 30
Bouldin 27
Pargo 21
Pendo 21
Gray 20
Brown 8
Sorenson 5
Gurganious 4
Sacre 3
Kuso -7

:confused:

azzagfan
01-23-2008, 05:16 AM
The numbers are what the numbers are. Gray's are lower for the whole season due to him not playing in a significant number of early blowouts.

Rubbadub
01-23-2008, 05:50 AM
Look at what I put in bold in both data sets...

lothar98zag
01-23-2008, 08:29 AM
Downs 170
Pargo 158
Daye 153
Bouldin 94
Pendo 80
Gurganious 72
Kuso 63
Heytvelt 59
Gray 42
Foster 25
Sacre 15
Sorenson 15
Brown 15
Davis 3

Since Heytvelt/Gray's return:
Downs 59
Heytvelt 59
Daye 30
Bouldin 27
Pargo 21
Pendo 21
Gray 20
Brown 8
Sorenson 5
Gurganious 4
Sacre 3
Kuso -7
can this be related to a per minute stat, and not just a grand total?

ZagsGoZags
01-23-2008, 09:47 AM
Question right on. Is there a way to get this statistic on a per minute basis. It seems odd to have Josh with 59 overall, and 59 since he got back. It makes it difficult to compare what we have there. But I imagine stats are not recorded this way, so it isn't possible to just write a formula and let a computer crunch the numbers. It would have to be done by hand. But I would think coaches would really want this number, because it combines offensive everything, and defensive everything in one stat. Over time it would be the best true measure of worth to the team, because it would reflect intangibles.
This stat would have an explanation for why some teams lose the game when their best player gets 35 or 40 points.

Thomas_Sutpen
01-23-2008, 11:09 AM
Any way to redesign these stats to give us the +/- on certain lineups, rather than individuals? Don't know if it's possible to track, but it might be interesting to see.

MickMick
01-23-2008, 11:14 AM
It "feels" like the Zags build on a lead with Josh in there and lose ground when he is out. Regardless of how well he is perceived to be playing, he affects the game. Kuso looked great against USF, but the team lost ground with him in there. Heytvelt looked sluggish, yet the Zags built on the lead with him in there. Watch the replay with an eye at the score differential. Josh just impacts the game that way.

azzagfan
01-23-2008, 03:24 PM
Look at what I put in bold in both data sets...

The discrepancy between the two numbers is Gray came back one game earlier than Josh and had a +22 against Northern Colorado.

mgadfly
01-23-2008, 03:26 PM
One of Gray's totals have to be wrong. (Edited after the above post...so it should have read "totals since Heytvelt returned...)

This isn't a great stat to use because there are too many factors to make it very insightful. For example, has Downs played more minutes against inferior opponents than Daye? Did Downs play more minutes against starters while the game was close than Daye? Has Pargo played twice as many minutes as Gurganious (or three times as many or four?).

I think it is fun to know, and I'd say it generally supports a proposition that Downs is under appreciated, but would have to admit that it isn't information that is very reliable.

azzagfan
01-23-2008, 03:45 PM
It "feels" like the Zags build on a lead with Josh in there and lose ground when he is out. Regardless of how well he is perceived to be playing, he affects the game. Kuso looked great against USF, but the team lost ground with him in there. Heytvelt looked sluggish, yet the Zags built on the lead with him in there. Watch the replay with an eye at the score differential. Josh just impacts the game that way.

In the other games I would agree, however against USF, this was not the case.

Daye Total 11
Downs Total 10
Kuso Total 7
Gray Total 5
Pargo Total 1
Heytvelt Total 1
Brown Total 1
Bouldin Total 0
Pendergraft Total -1

azzagfan
01-23-2008, 03:49 PM
One of Gray's totals have to be wrong. (Edited after the above post...so it should have read "totals since Heytvelt returned...)

This isn't a great stat to use because there are too many factors to make it very insightful. For example, has Downs played more minutes against inferior opponents than Daye? Did Downs play more minutes against starters while the game was close than Daye? Has Pargo played twice as many minutes as Gurganious (or three times as many or four?).

I think it is fun to know, and I'd say it generally supports a proposition that Downs is under appreciated, but would have to admit that it isn't information that is very reliable.

I agree with your points, but I believe all statistics are affected in the same manner.

MickMick
01-23-2008, 03:56 PM
In the other games I would agree, however against USF, this was not the case.

Daye Total 11
Downs Total 10
Kuso Total 7
Gray Total 5
Pargo Total 1
Heytvelt Total 1
Brown Total 1
Bouldin Total 0
Pendergraft Total -1


Didn't seem that way. Kuso played well against USF.

deathchina
01-23-2008, 05:03 PM
I would be curious to see what the stat is for each player per 40 minutes played.

ZagsGoZags
01-23-2008, 08:59 PM
yes, that would be one way to get a per minute, or per 40 min, or per hour comparative stat.

only this stat, and others like it, allowed me to vote for Austin for GUnit against san francisco, on a per minute basis

mgadfly
01-23-2008, 09:34 PM
I agree with your points, but I believe all statistics are affected in the same manner.

Yeah, that's for sure with most statistics. I guess I don't like this stat because it is so generalized and removed from a player's actual performance (all a player has to do is stand on the court at the right time to have a good +/-). On the other hand I do like it because it gives some indication of how the team does overall when a player is on the court.

azzagfan
01-26-2008, 06:46 PM
Update post-Memphis

Season Total:
Downs 175
Daye 153
Pargo 151
Bouldin 86
Kuso 75
Pendo 71
Gurganious 71
Heytvelt 59
Gray 42
Sacre 25
Brown 19
Foster 15
Sorenson 15
Davis 3

Since Heytvelt return:
Downs 64
Heytvelt 38
Daye 28
Bouldin 19
Pargo 14
Pendo 12
Brown 12
Gray 7
Sorenson 5
Kuso 5
Gurganious 4
Sacre 3

ZagsGoZags
01-26-2008, 10:52 PM
I love this stat, it is already on a per/minute (or per time unit) basis isn't it?

BEcause if a player is in for 15 minutes, like Daye, or 25 minutes like Matt, there is still the equal possibility for all players to be in when the team is losing points, so the stat isn't skewed horribly until it gets to extremely low minutes like Ira.

I think. If you play a lot of minutes, it increases your chances of losing points as well as gaining net points - all based on the total effect of one player's presence on the floor including all offensive and defensive efforts.

is this right?

I like the five with the highest scores since JH is back

JH, Downs, Daye, Pargo, Bouldin

that seems like a great starting line up considering Daye is such a good rebounder and shot blocker inside.

Would it be hard to rank the team on rebounds per minutes played? I would think this stat is lying around somewhere.
Wouldn't it be
JH, then Kuso, then Daye then Sacre, then Pendo, then Matt, then Pargo?

bzzz61
01-27-2008, 07:59 AM
Does it say anything about the play of Pendo and Ira! that they have the same +/- since JH came back? I am a huge Pendo fan and am not ragging on him at all but rather excited about the level of play that Ira! brings to the table. As always, I'm not a coach and don't know what Few and staff do but I get pumped up everytime I see the headband check into the game.

gamagin
01-27-2008, 09:00 AM
interesting +- but am wondering what it signifies to you ?

i.e. what tangible things do you think this shows that perhaps other stats do not provide.

I'm trying to get my arms around this tool and mostly it just makes me think of more questions.

tns,

btzag
01-27-2008, 09:28 AM
Azzag, do you have the +/- for just the Memphis game? I think that would be an interesting post to see how our starters vs reserves played. If you have time...

MedZag
01-27-2008, 09:54 AM
Azzag, do you have the +/- for just the Memphis game? I think that would be an interesting post to see how our starters vs reserves played. If you have time...

From the honorary GUnit thread:

Here's the plus/minus for the game, so based on this, Kuuuuuuuuuuu-so!
Kuso Total 12
Downs Total 5
Brown Total 4
Gurganious Total -1
Daye Total -2
Pargo Total -7
Bouldin Total -8
Pendo Total -9
Gray Total -13
Heytvelt Total -21

btzag
01-27-2008, 03:44 PM
Thanks MedZag!

StatMan
01-27-2008, 06:57 PM
Great stat Azzagfan !!! Keep up the good work.

I wonder if the reason that Kuso's plus/minus was so high and Josh's was so low in the Memphis game was because Josh had to play against Joey Dorsey most of the time and when Dorsey sat then Josh also went out and Kuso was put into the game.

I'd be curious to see Joey Dorsey's plus/minus (which would also show how much Gonzaga outscored Memphis when he wasn't in the game).

This stat is used in hockey all the time to show whether a player is a positive contributor to the team. Micah Down's positive contribution to the team really stands out with this stat.

kitzbuel
01-27-2008, 07:57 PM
interesting +- but am wondering what it signifies to you ?

i.e. what tangible things do you think this shows that perhaps other stats do not provide.

I'm trying to get my arms around this tool and mostly it just makes me think of more questions.

tns,
I guess I am not sure what it is measuring in this case. It is used heavily in hockey to determine players' defensive contribution to the team. It is a statistic that can be pretty easily skewed by high-scoring games, so game score needs to be taken into account somehow. It will be interesting to see how it applies to basketball players.

StatMan
01-31-2008, 09:34 PM
Azzagfan,

Where's the plus/minus stats for Monday's game against Portland ?

I love that stat and I look forward to seeing your report for each game now.

azzagfan
02-01-2008, 04:36 PM
I normally include it in with the GUnit of the game (it was there for Portland). I love that thread, and being a numbers guy, it's my way of contributing to all the great opinions expressed. I hope it gives people something else to think and talk about. Here it is for Portland.

Downs Total 37
Daye Total 29
Bouldin Total 25
Kuso Total 23
Pargo Total 19
Brown Total 12
Gray Total 10
Pendo Total 9
Sacre Total 9
Gurganious Total 7
Heytvelt Total 4
Foster Total 4
Sorenson Total 2

azzagfan
02-03-2008, 12:10 PM
Here are the updated plus/minus for the season (I fixed a minor number discrepancy which caused my last two posts to be slightly inaccurate).

Downs 211
Daye 186
Pargo 181
Bouldin 107
Kuso 95
Pendo 80
Gurganious 78
Heytvelt 54
Gray 48
Sacre 34
Brown 30
Sorenson 17
Foster 14
Davis 3

Since Heytvelt's return

Downs 100
Daye 63
Heytvelt 54
Pargo 44
Bouldin 40
Gray 26
Kuso 25
Brown 23
Pendo 21
Sacre 12
LG 10
Sorenson 7
Foster -1