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View Full Version : 3 point shooting (or lack thereof) a concern?



thespywhozaggedme
11-17-2007, 08:46 PM
Bouldin has made only one in three games. In fact his jumper in general has been a little off since the second half of last season. JP can't be counted for a consistent 3, so other than Daye and possibly Pendo where do we get our 3 point shooting from? Thoughts? Thanks

zagster318
11-17-2007, 08:48 PM
Bouldin has made only one in three games. In fact his jumper in general has been a little off since the second half of last season. JP can't be counted for a consistent 3, so other than Daye and possibly Pendo where do we get our 3 point shooting from? Thoughts? Thanks

Downs?

Psychozag
11-17-2007, 08:49 PM
Micah can hit them consistently...the thing I am seeing from him is a lot of hesitation which may point to some doubt. Shooters got to shoot even when their shot is off. I do like that he was playing within the game and not forcing anything, but I don't want to see Micah hesitate when he is open.

ZagsGoZags
11-17-2007, 08:53 PM
in spite of tonight, Mican, Austin, and Stephen Gray when he gets back

I have said this before, and will repeat, we will end up as a staple in our offensive game book, that Pargo and Matt will penetrate, and pass off to Austin, Gray or Mican on the outside,
OR we will toss in to the Big Man, let Matt or Jeremy move to pull a defender off one of those three, then pass to one of those 3, and then we will consistently get a good % on threes, because all 3 of these guys are natural guns,
and Pargo and Matt aren't from 3 pt range. Even Pendo isn't but he is probably better than Pargo and Matt

CDC84
11-17-2007, 09:14 PM
The Zags have only hit 9-32 three balls thus far. That's 26%. Pargo and Bouldin are 2 for 16 (12.5%).

As Gonzaga now faces more talented teams, I expect several of them to pack the middle and dare Gonzaga to shoot from the outside.

There is no question that not having the best pure shooter on the team, Steven Gray, is not helping. Also, Heytvelt shot around 40% from 3 ball land last season.

But I also think that the staff need to do a better job of running some plays for Pendo. David shot 48% from 3 ball land last season, and he's only shot 2 three pointers in 3 games. That's really not acceptable for a team that is having such bad problems shooting from long distance.

The guy who they need to just continue to encourage is Downs. He needs to just keep shooting. He's got beautiful form and everything. By year's end, I expect that he'll at least be a consistent 40% guy.

cair3
11-17-2007, 09:34 PM
3 point shooting woes=annoying

mendiant
11-17-2007, 09:49 PM
Live by the 3, die by the 3...there is plenty of time to develop this.

Micah shot many and missed many this evening.

Shot SELECTION is more important than making all of the 3's.

BTW, most of Micahs' 3 were in fact wide open, so practice would be good in this area...

but not imperative.

jim77
11-17-2007, 09:53 PM
CDC is right about some sets for David....the guy can really pop open 3's.

Micah did can 2 3's in the second half tonight..and I suspect his injured thumb isn't helping the situation. He'll be fine.....love his hustle out there!

MickMick
11-17-2007, 09:58 PM
Why not make a bunch of twos instead? Three blowouts in a row and we gotta change things up?

Perhaps Few is coaching them to take high percentage shots. Perhaps it is like how Peyton Manning plays, "You take what they give ya".

mendiant
11-17-2007, 09:59 PM
Why not make a bunch of twos instead? Three blowouts in a row and we gotta change things up?

Perhaps Few is coaching them to take high percentage shots. Perhaps it is like how Peyton Manning plays, "You take what they give ya".

WORD

FuManShoes
11-17-2007, 10:36 PM
Originally Posted by MickMick
Why not make a bunch of twos instead? Three blowouts in a row and we gotta change things up?

It's a concern because you can bet better teams will exploit this glaring weakness, pack the middle and dare the Zags to shoot. If they do that, it'll negate the Zags' fast break offense and even up the rebounding battle. You gotta have a guy who can bomb - Florida did and look where it took them. The funny thing is that Zag teams of much lesser reknown could shoot the rock. Now we have a team full of high-flyers and solid defenders and no one except the freshman seems to be able to make a jump shot. I said it in another thread, and I'll say it here, D-Rav will be missed a whole lot more unless someone starts making shots to keep defenders honest. I think that guy is Pendo until Downs finds his stroke and Gray gets back. I had heard Jeremy was making threes over the summer, but his shot does not look good. For whatever reason, Matt doesn't get shooter's bounces. Maybe he needs to add some arc to that thing. ....

IrishBulldog
11-17-2007, 11:08 PM
Has Bouldin completely recovered from his ankle injury? A bad wheel hurts a shooter's lift, which throws everything off. I'd imagine that he'll be fine too.

I'd reiterate that missing Gray definitely hurts. Getting him back will be a big boost.

WallaWallaZag
11-18-2007, 01:38 AM
because the competition is about to step up a notch, and it's very very difficult to win without solid long range shooting in college...might change when they push the line back. it's a concern because our two primary guards and ball handlers both can't shoot right now, and this after we read all summer about both of them improving in this area. right now, i can't believe that i feel the most confidence in austin putting up the three right now...it should be micah, but for some reason he is really hesitating. he needs a game where he goes 4-6 or 5-8 from deep.

Birddog
11-18-2007, 04:02 AM
in spite of tonight, Mican, Austin, and Stephen Gray when he gets back

I have said this before, and will repeat, we will end up as a staple in our offensive game book, that Pargo and Matt will penetrate, and pass off to Austin, Gray or Mican on the outside,
OR we will toss in to the Big Man, let Matt or Jeremy move to pull a defender off one of those three, then pass to one of those 3, and then we will consistently get a good % on threes, because all 3 of these guys are natural guns,
and Pargo and Matt aren't from 3 pt range. Even Pendo isn't but he is probably better than Pargo and Matt
HeyZGZ, Sloooooow down. This is coming from someone who didn't know a 3 from a 4 or that Theo was injured last year. There is a forum called the Foo for post padding. You are in danger of being placed on my "ignore" list. and I suspect several other folks will place you there too. A bazillion posts in a short time means only that you must have a lot of opinions, it doesn't give same any more credibility. I must say you are enthusiastic, but that too doesn't make you any more credible. Remember that old saying that even a stopped clock is right 2 times a day.

Birddog

seasontixholder
11-18-2007, 04:56 AM
Gonzaga is becoming known as the place where 3-point shooters go to die.

Our offense hasn't been designed for them for at least 5 years. Once the offense goes into half-court, the ball movement slows to a crawl. Player receives a pass, he first holds the ball and looks inside. He passes the ball to another player who holds the ball and looks inside also. Contrast that to the ball flow of one of our lesser opponents, who make a series of quick perimeter passes designed to set up a 3 as the first option.

There were about 5 plays last night designed for an outside shot. Tops. For Micah mostly, in the second half. In addition, there were several other plays instigated by Austin or Jeremy (who have the ability to make snap decisions instantly in the flow) that sped the ball up. Other than that, the ball plodded point-to-point as has become custom.

I'm not arguing that I want GU to revert to reliance on the 3 to win games. But there should be a better balance so that great shooters don't develop a habit of reluctance. Watching Micah progressively becoming tentative is somewhat painful, know that a confident one will be needed (and sorely missed) somewhere down the line.

Butler Guy
11-18-2007, 06:48 AM
Why not make a bunch of twos instead?

Expected value is why you want to shoot 3-pointers, it is simple math.

A good three-point shooter will shoot somewhere between 33% and 50%, for this let's assume a 42% three-point shooter. Because the three point shot is rewarded with 50% more points than a standard look, it requires you to shoot at a significantly higher percentage within the arc. At our example level of 42% three-point shooting, you would have to shoot 63% to maintain the level of expected value. (42% * 3 / 2). Now, this doesn't even consider the potential for rebounded put-backs of the three point shot, simple one shot vs the other.

A strategy of shooting a bunch of twos just doesn't make much mathematical sense. This is a very valid reason for concern, if this in deed an issue. The 3-point shot is the most important offensive weapon in college basketball.

avid-zag-fan
11-18-2007, 06:57 AM
i've always thought that 3 point shooting should be tiered: maybe over 35% green lighted and in a must take at least a certain # per game to keep the defenses from stacking the middle under 20% should be beg the coach before the game to take 1 three pt shot. 2 for 16 and the answer should be not if you want pt. period. iit's just like asking for a turn over. i

i think the problem with downs shooting is his left hand injury.

and as for shooters must shoot. well sure but move in a few steps till and take an easier shoot. it's no differense than the practice drill, start close and work out to range.

i may be remembering it wrong but didn't pendo lead the team in 3 pt % one other year. he's a great team player and a turnover free passer but i'd really like him shooting at least 5 or six more 3's per game.

Nevtelen
11-18-2007, 07:40 AM
So far this thread has proven 1 thing to me - people will always hate on the team for something. The past couple of years after a blowout vs a cupcake, this thread would have been about how, yeah we won but the defense was horrible and it better improve quick of else! Now that the D has been stellar, we get a thread about how horrendous the 3-ball shooting is and how Gonzaga has never understood how to facilitate the 3-pt shot...

Please. :vomit-smiley-007:

Yes, we haven't been hitting them. Yes, we don't have two of our best 3-ball shooters. Yes, Micah has been off. Hopefully Micah and Bouldin and Pendo (and anyone else) will be on target when they need to be. Hopefully we'll see Pendo doing more outside shooting off of pick-and-pops. I'm pretty confident our 3-pt shooting will be okay, if not stellar, until Josh and Gray get back. It's certainly not something intrinsic to GU's program - the team has had some great 3-pt shooters in the past and will continue to have them. So get a grip people. The sky is still above our heads and no cracks have even appeared yet.

As for the importance fo the 3-ball:
A strategy of shooting a bunch of twos just doesn't make much mathematical sense. This is a very valid reason for concern, if this in deed an issue. The 3-point shot is the most important offensive weapon in college basketball.

I'll have to disagree. Your math is correct, but bball isn't just a mathematical exercise. It's a game, and it's not played on paper. The 3-ball can be huge, definitely true. But there's a reason for the adage, live by the 3 die by the 3. I've seen a lot of teams who just keep shooting 3s get destroyed. Once they miss a few in a row, the momentum leaves them, they keep missing, and they have problems (take our game vs Texas last year). Not only that, but shooting 3s will very seldom get you to the line, whereas playing inside/ driving will. Both those are ways to get 3pts out of a possession. Also, inside play puts foul pressure on opposing players, which can be HUGE, something just shooting 3s will never do.

Butler does a great job with an offense designed around shooting 3s, no question. But it's definitely not for every team - 90% of teams couldn't and shouldn't have an offense like that. I wouldn't come near to calling the 3 the most important weapon in bball.

omahazag
11-18-2007, 07:56 AM
Bouldin has made only one in three games. In fact his jumper in general has been a little off since the second half of last season. JP can't be counted for a consistent 3, so other than Daye and possibly Pendo where do we get our 3 point shooting from? Thoughts? Thanks

I agree, Bouldin's shooting is a real concern. Outside Micha and Pendo, we have no legitimate 3 point threat on this team until Josh and Steven get back. I suppose Daye can too, but i don't think he's as effective in this offense standing outside the 3 point line.

MickMick
11-18-2007, 08:04 AM
We played really solid in the first half, but I thought we had a little space there where we took four or five straight 3s,” Few said. “We were having a lot of success getting the ball to the rim.”

Few is going in an opposite direction of this thread and more in line with what Nevtelen just said.
And I agree with the philosophy.

ZagsGoZags
11-18-2007, 08:34 AM
I notice that most of the posts on this question said the same thing I did, that our best 3 pt shooters are Micah, Gray and some agreed, Daye. And I'll admit I have enthusiasm. But give me some credit for asking questions and wanting to learn more about basketball, and admitting I have little basketball background. It is lots of fun to give opinions and read everyone else's. Also I always said I knew Theo was injured last year, and got into Cheney troubles in Feb. The only thing I didn't remember right, apparently, is that I thought he recovered in Dec and Jan. It is easy for to analyze each game to death, but the players have to go out each week and play their hearts out. Do you think any of the players hear about, or read, any of the blogs?
Let's cheer our team on to the Elite 8 this year, and beyond!

ExtremeJim
11-18-2007, 08:41 AM
A strategy of shooting a bunch of twos just doesn't make much mathematical sense...

...for Butler. However, through its first 3 games, Gonzaga is making 61.4% of its 2-point field attempts, and only 26.5% of the 3's.

Using your own logic, we are doing what works for us, just as you do what works for you. The difference is, we have some three-point shooters that could start hitting their attempts, giving us a choice, while Butler has no meaningful option to go inside, with your tallest player at 6'8", and your heaviest at 220.

If you like math, consider this: through 3 games, Butler has put up 141 shots, averaging 1.4 points-per-shot, and Gonzaga 161 shots, averaging 1.5 PPS, despite the predominance of 2-point attempts in the mix (a tip of the cap to Nevetelen's point about drawing fouls.) Gonzaga's approach to date has netted them almost 7 more points per game than Butler's has netted them, while the improved GU defense has allowed less than 2 points more per game than Butler's.

Advantage, GU by 5 points per game.

BobZag
11-18-2007, 09:07 AM
Bouldin has made only one in three games. In fact his jumper in general has been a little off since the second half of last season. JP can't be counted for a consistent 3, so other than Daye and possibly Pendo where do we get our 3 point shooting from? Thoughts? Thanks

It concerns me. Micah and Pendo are good shooters. Pendo could be shooting more. Matt really needs to bust this slump. Like in baseball, slumps are usually overcome all of a sudden. I'm hoping real soon, as in days.

Butler Guy
11-18-2007, 09:45 AM
Advantage, GU by 5 points per game.

Are you kidding me? You are doing a linear projection, forecasting margin based on Gonzaga's 297th rated schedule to date (Sagarin)? Come on now, let's take a step back for a second. Gonzaga is a VERY, VERY good team, but the schedule, thus far, has been hardly more difficult than playing a few Division II teams. The Zags may be significantly improved from a year ago, but games like the ones played thus far (like against 06/07 #305 UC-Riverside) have no predictive value in relation to quality opponents.

I have to tell you, I have had this conversation before with Indiana basketball fans. I certainly hope a proud fandom like the Zags have aren't falling into that kind of thinking.

zzzjag
11-18-2007, 10:16 AM
I don't think anyone mentioned Josh who according to my stats look up was 21-50 for .404% in his 'less then full season' last year.

Another potential way for the Zags to stretch the floor. WIth Kuso's improvement in catching/finishing/and offensive rebounding, I believe Zag fans will be less critical of Josh shooting from the perimeter then they were last year. Last year with a lack of any inside precense early in the season, most posters seemed frustrated when Josh took 3s. thats his natural position and I for one can't wait until he's on the court again.

spudzag
11-18-2007, 10:57 AM
So far this thread has proven 1 thing to me - people will always hate on the team for something. The past couple of years after a blowout vs a cupcake, this thread would have been about how, yeah we won but the defense was horrible and it better improve quick of else! Now that the D has been stellar, we get a thread about how horrendous the 3-ball shooting is and how Gonzaga has never understood how to facilitate the 3-pt shot...

Please. :vomit-smiley-007:



Point well taken. How great is it to have a defense? How great is it to put teams way that need to be put away? The 3 ball will come, no worries.

Still, I find myself looking for potential improvements. What I don't see is a Jon Brockman kind of PF. Lots of very gifted finesse guys, but not a lot of bangers. What I'm thinking of is something like what we say for the brief time last night when Kuso and Satre were in the game at the same time. Hasn't mattered against our early opponent but bigger teams are on the way.

Guess that gets filed as my dream recruit for the class of 2009.

ExtremeJim
11-18-2007, 11:07 AM
I wasn't predicting anything, just recapping the first three games to show that your overly sweeping proclamation has very limited applicability, and none at all to Gonzaga. We were out here jacking up the 3-balls before there was a 3-point line, but we didn't have much success in March until the Vanilla Gorilla came along.

I can't claim to be a knowledgeable basketball fan, or even much of a fan at all. I just played the game as an amateur for 19 years in California, Virginia, and Washington. I've never played a single game in Indiana, but I know enough about you Hoosiers from reading to know that no one call tell anyone from Indiana anything about basketball, even when they're wrong.

Having dropped that stereotype on you, I'll just go back to sitting in the rain, sipping on my Starbuck's...

Zag By the Bay
11-18-2007, 12:03 PM
The next stretch of games that will include Western Kentucky, WSU, UConn, St. Joes, Tennessee Oklahoma and possibly Texas Tech and/or Butler will be a great litmus test on our progress as a team. The first three games have been lay ups for us at home.
Strap in Zag fans the joy ride begins Thursday!
One thing also to throw in about the return of Gray and Josh. For us to expect that they will jump right into the rotation and instantly produce is like having an out of shape runner to complete a marathon with a week's training under his belt.
As was mentioned in earlier thread, let's tap on the brakes a bit here and sneak in a breath here and there.
Go Zags!

azzagfan
11-18-2007, 12:12 PM
To be as successful as I hope we can be this year (which is to at least emulate the performance of the '99 Zags), we are going to have to be able to stretch defenses. At this level most teams have one or more guys who when left wide open can hit these types of shots as consistently as free throws. Against Montana, Idaho and UC Riverside, this was obviously not an issue. For one, we are far superior athletically to all these teams and have a dominant advantage in overall size, but against Memphis, UConn, Tennessee, Wazzu, St. Joe's and the teams we will need to face in March to advance, we will need to be able to hit jump shots to win.

dim4sum
11-18-2007, 04:29 PM
As long as the team continues to generate points out of the play post by committee team of Kuso, Sacre and Foster--and continues to pulverize the opposition--the emphasis should be on going inside. The three of them combined had 28 points and eight rebounds against Riverside. Those kind of numbers amount to Josh Plus. When Josh is well, he will have to earn his playing time.
Rather than putting up threes, the focus should be on defending against it and so far this season, the Zags have done a superb job of it. May the block parties continue/

dim4sum
11-18-2007, 05:01 PM
One very encouraging thing so far is the low percentage of threes the opposition has been hitting--12 out of 58 for just 20.6 percent.
Meanwhile, the Zags are 9 out of 34 for 26.4 percent....