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View Full Version : Sagarin's new ratings Nov 15, 2007



MDABE80
11-14-2007, 10:44 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0708.htm

94zagoldwomanasherdsmen
11-14-2007, 11:29 PM
that's all I needed to know...my second fav's are climbing baby!

ZagMan in Philly
11-15-2007, 05:14 AM
I like where the Zags is at. I would squeeze in Butler in the top 10-15 right now.

Reborn
11-15-2007, 10:36 AM
Wow!!! I'm dizzy!!!:D

former1dog
11-15-2007, 11:27 AM
Not to pee in anyone's cheerio's, but like other ratings like the RPI, this one won't mean much until a bunch more games are played.

Just sayin'.

Butler Guy
11-15-2007, 11:51 AM
More or less, you are correct, the Sags need more data to be finer. However, they are drastically more accurate than the RPI this early in the season because the best predictor of future results in the pure points model. Because RPI completely ignores MOV, pure points is not taken into account. It is is the Sagarin. After just a couple weeks, the Sags have enough data to have to predictive value. The RPI, well, that metric never has predictive value.

lothar98zag
11-15-2007, 12:27 PM
For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all WELL CONNECTED, then
the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal
and the ratings are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
The teams are now UNCONNECTED and so the ratings are BAYESIAN.

basically what he's saying is, using his opinion, he set up a ranking before any game was played and this affects the current rankings. So it is very true that this doesn't mean much until A LOT of games have been played.





btw, I totally disagree about MOV. I don't want it included in any mathematical ranking. I don't really feel like getting into a long discussion about it. Just wanted to mention my (correct) preference.

Spokanicoug
11-15-2007, 12:30 PM
If you watch the NCAA FB #s, the betting lines are almost always exactly as the Sagarin rankings predict the outcome. Food for thought.

lothar98zag
11-15-2007, 12:45 PM
If you watch the NCAA FB #s, the betting lines are almost always exactly as the Sagarin rankings predict the outcome. Food for thought.
not really sure how/why betting lines carry a lot of weight.

Are you saying that betting lines affect how teams are seeded/picked for March Madness?

Butler Guy
11-15-2007, 01:24 PM
I totally disagree about MOV. I don't want it included in any mathematical ranking. I don't really feel like getting into a long discussion about it. Just wanted to mention my (correct) preference.

No sane individual should believe as you do, especially considering the team you root for. With Pepperdine looking like one of the poorest teams in the country, they will surely have a very poor RPI. Therefore regardless of what Gonzaga does in the game, they cannot escape the black hole of RPI. Gonzaga could come out and win by 100 points and their RPI would still suffer. Any reasonably intelligent person, like yourself, clearly can see the problem with that. It is IMPERATIVE that a team has control of it's rating fate in any given day. If you are playing the best team in the country, a team everyone else has lost by 20 to and you turn in a performance where you only lose by 5. There is value in that. In any match-up there has to be a fulcrum point where margin and sos meet and diverge. The only people who should be in favor of a non-MOV metric are BCS league commissioners and teams in those leagues who sit right at 5th or 6th in the league. Those are the people who benefit from the idiocy of the RPI formula.

lothar98zag
11-15-2007, 01:48 PM
No sane individual should believe as you do, especially considering the team you root for. With Pepperdine looking like one of the poorest teams in the country, they will surely have a very poor RPI. Therefore regardless of what Gonzaga does in the game, they cannot escape the black hole of RPI. Gonzaga could come out and win by 100 points and their RPI would still suffer. Any reasonably intelligent person, like yourself, clearly can see the problem with that. It is IMPERATIVE that a team has control of it's rating fate in any given day. If you are playing the best team in the country, a team everyone else has lost by 20 to and you turn in a performance where you only lose by 5. There is value in that. In any match-up there has to be a fulcrum point where margin and sos meet and diverge. The only people who should be in favor of a non-MOV metric are BCS league commissioners and teams in those leagues who sit right at 5th or 6th in the league. Those are the people who benefit from the idiocy of the RPI formula.
I never said I prefered the PRI. I was just commenting on including MOV in a ranking.

Spokanicoug
11-15-2007, 07:48 PM
not really sure how/why betting lines carry a lot of weight.

Are you saying that betting lines affect how teams are seeded/picked for March Madness?


Betting/Gambling = $$$$$

Which outweighs them all.

SteeleMan
11-15-2007, 09:44 PM
I like where the Zags is at. I would squeeze in Butler in the top 10-15 right now.

you mean, if you were a computer? :p

Butler Guy
11-16-2007, 05:21 AM
you mean, if you were a computer?

The great thing about computers is that when given a set of inputs the result is logical. Butler won 29 games a season ago, ranked 9th in the country defensively, went to a Sweet 16 (narrowly falling to Florida in the round), and finished at #15 in the final 06/07 Sagarin Rating.

For 07/08, Butler returns 5 of the team's top 6 scorers from a year ago including Wooden finalist AJ Graves, #12 ranked PG, Mike Green, (Rivals), and one of the top 5 shooters in the country, Pete Campbell, (52% 3-point shooter) while adding 1 4-star, 3 3-stars, and 1 2-star. (Howard, Jukes, Hahn, Leinedecker, and Vanzant)

It never made the slightest bit of sense to have Butler out of a Top-15, preseason, much less a Top 25.

Moving to this year, Butler has actually improved across the board, and now have the luxury of running 10 deep. In four games, the most an opponent has scored was Indiana State's 48.

Because it is a team you are familiar with, I would ask you to compare the resume I submitted above with that of Washington State. The only difference is that the Cougars were rated appropriately.

The computers are right on this one, as they often are.

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I apologize for taking your time, but I just felt I had to lay out the facts of the matter. That will be the last time I make such a post.

sittingon50
11-16-2007, 08:47 AM
Don't apologize, Butler Guy; I for one feel that there are a # of posters here that are not giving your guys enough respect. You handled us last year & have most of those guys back. Until we beat you ON THE COURT it is my opinion that you are the better team.