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Section 116
06-23-2020, 02:55 PM
From the Couer d' Alene press: https://cdapress.com/news/2020/jun/22/the-cheap-seats-with-steve-cameron-roth-zags-5/

SorenTodd45
06-23-2020, 03:08 PM
I know the first game (pre-season or exhibition, however you want to call it) is not until around November 1st. It would be at the Kennel against some cupcake school. But I'm already worried; 2020 MLB may be a no-go, and the 2020 college and pro football seasons are up in the air. Having fans or no fans makes no difference to me; I am not local to Spokane. I've never been inside the Kennel. I'm just hoping that come November, I can go to the WCC website, click on the right window, and see my boys. Wishful thinking. I'm hearing we are already pre-season #1 in the nation, and it would suck if we could not defend that.

Zags11
06-23-2020, 05:06 PM
I know the first game (pre-season or exhibition, however you want to call it) is not until around November 1st. It would be at the Kennel against some cupcake school. But I'm already worried; 2020 MLB may be a no-go, and the 2020 college and pro football seasons are up in the air. Having fans or no fans makes no difference to me; I am not local to Spokane. I've never been inside the Kennel. I'm just hoping that come November, I can go to the WCC website, click on the right window, and see my boys. Wishful thinking. I'm hearing we are already pre-season #1 in the nation, and it would suck if we could not defend that.

2020 MLB season is now happening. (Shall see if Covid hits and its cancelled) NFL 2020 season wants to go but Fauci disagrees. However, if MLB happens and is a success I will believe rest of sports happen.

ZagaZags
06-23-2020, 05:17 PM
Does the NBA still plan on playing in Florida this summer?

hooter73
06-23-2020, 05:22 PM
MLB screwed the pooch with their back and forth infighting. I wouldn’t base anything on there being a baseball season or not.

AirborneJag
06-23-2020, 05:34 PM
Roth echoed some of the same thoughts of uncertainty in a letter sent today to season ticket holders. I think for the most part, he is in a plan, check and adjust mode since each day seems to bring a new surprise or development. Intriguing to me is the idea that they may have to limit fans in the MAC (assuming fans are permitted at all) and just how they will choose who gets to attend. Same type of question about the students given social distancing isn’t practicable if it even possible within the student section.

As my momma used to say,“good things come to those who wait” so I guess that’s all we can do is wait.

cggonzaga
06-23-2020, 05:46 PM
MLB screwed the pooch with their back and forth infighting. I wouldn’t base anything on there being a baseball season or not.

Ummm...https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29354014/sources-mlbpa-agrees-report-july-1-discussing-health-safety-protocols

ZagsObserver
06-23-2020, 06:32 PM
How does Inslee’s mask proclamation play into this?

Once and Future Zag
06-23-2020, 07:21 PM
The US is still in the midst of the "first wave" - we're going to be dealing with COVID for so long at this point... at this point my assumption is that - at best - that the next MBB season is maybe conference-only, starting in January.

GonzaGAW
06-23-2020, 08:40 PM
- as a season ticket holder to the women's team (11 years now), i received my email today from roth.
- short stokes, next month season ticket holders will be receiving notices with opportunity to renew your season tickets.
- gu will work with state officials, local health district, and take measures to ensure health of players, staff and fans.
- if any game or games are played or cancelled in which a season ticket holder is not allowed to attend, said ticket holder has 2 options. 1. donate the ticket price to the university 2. ask for a refund.

- roth has said before, they will either have no fans, or a full arena. which makes sense, no way you can manage who can and cannot attend, or where they can or cannot sit.

- p.s. hey, i'm an alumni, and fan, but option 1 made me laugh out loud. yes to option 2, thank you please.

3XaZag
06-23-2020, 08:41 PM
Hopefully I can get away with a minor detour into the science.

It will become increasingly clear that the metric to look out for is deaths..not cases. With everything slowly opening back up there will be, and already is, an increase in cases. You can say its due to the demonstrations, amusement parks, or whatever/whomever your politics drives you to blame. Cases in the last week (13-16th vs 20-23) are up 36%.

Deaths are a different story. In the same period they are down from 2,307 to 2,066- a drop of 11%...... That 47% divergence in just one week is huge, and we are seeing it more over time. I am not in the medical field and welcome corrections from those who are, but from what I read, there is likely two reasons for this shift. First, the stronger, more virulent strains of the virus, make people get sick more obviously, thus they are quarantined more, limiting exposure. Then it kills quicker, again limiting exposure. Therefore most viruses get weaker the longer they are out in a population (this exact dynamic is what "did in" SARS in the 00's). The second reason is as the first wave passes it infects/kills the weakest in the population...COVID did this in the nursing homes. The longer it stays out there the more it runs into a stronger populace...thus less deaths. No guarantee these trends will continue, but if they do, the long awaited shift to death rates that are closer to the annual flu will make society feel safer and hasten a return to normal life. A infectious disease doctor in Italy just wrote this is what will end the pandemic, because it will happen a lot sooner than a vaccine. If, at four months since the generally accepted start of the pandemic, we see it, what will this trend look like 4-6 more months down the line. Again, no guarantees, but my money is on the survival of the fittest, and in this case, that will be a weaker version of the virus trying to feed on an increasingly less vulnerable population (and this doesn't even factor in "herd immunity", which isn't much of a factor yet, but will become increasingly important).

If you just stayed with me through those two paragraphs you are two things. First, a better man than me, and second, an optimist that this season will happen...even if there is a glitch, delay, or bump or two.

MDABE80
06-23-2020, 08:51 PM
The US is still in the midst of the "first wave" - we're going to be dealing with COVID for so long at this point... at this point my assumption is that - at best - that the next MBB season is maybe conference-only, starting in January.

MLB agreed to terms with the union and with the players today. They will have a 60 game season. Short season but it's on.

Gonzdb8
06-23-2020, 09:02 PM
How does Inslee’s mask proclamation play into this?

1) i don't believe this was a proclamation, but instead an order implementing a legal requirement. 2) if masks are still required by law come this fall i would think that means the situation is still serious enough that its unlikely sports happens, and certainly not with any fans. thats just my speculation of course, but seems to make sense.

sylean
06-23-2020, 10:32 PM
I agree with all your points except I'm not too optimistic ....why?....because the goals set at the beginning of this have come and gone, and now, we're making up new goals....it wasn't good enough to close down hospital wards in anticipation of the "surge" and to be prepared....now it seems people are upset that the virus is actually doing what a virus does....spread....and yes, death rates are way down....not only are people not getting terribly sick but the treatments have improved....we're testing lots of people now but we seem surprised that there are more cases...

its very strange....

willandi
06-24-2020, 06:16 AM
Under Armour debuts masks to wear while working out

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Style/armour-debuts-masks-wear-working/story?id=71402427https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/under-armour-mask-01-ht-jt-200623_hpEmbed_2x3_992.jpg

hegotit!
06-24-2020, 07:01 AM
With all the information and disinformation out there and the back and forth from the head scientist and doctors, who knows what to believe sometimes??

So in this situation I fall back to my education and common sense. The decision makers/Governor states that he is relying on the science, my problem with that is he has constantly been moving the goal post and not stuck to the science. The stay at home order was to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the hospitals. In eastern Washington that was successful. We move to phase 2 and now the goal is to keep people safe. So now the Governor is going to mandate masks.

Do masks work? Here again there is much proof from both sides. In Japan it is their culture to wear masks when they are sick and in public. Sounds fair to me. My opinion from everything out there is healthy people should not have to wear a mask. So why are we going to be required to wear a mask?

This leads to can asymptomatic transmission take place between people?? This one I have to lean towards its only contagious when a person has a fever like other illnesses.

caduceus
06-24-2020, 07:18 AM
Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microŲrganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.

I learned from the best in Hughes Hall, researched and published on microbiological processes for many a summer at GU. Learned at the largest research University in this state. Worked with many of the epidemiologists and virologists on the front line here in Washington State, including those making policy right now, and shared microscopes with and worked with those that are doing the vast majority of viral testing in our state at the moment. I'm not here to brag, but to share knowledge.

I'm super excited about our emerging rosters. I'm super depressed about the fact that virtually no one will adhere to the advice of our scientists. Pretty much every doctor colleague I know has sadly given up trying to advise the public due to the overwhelming backlash of stupidity, and that includes some of my dearest, dearest alumni friends that send me articles every time there's news that it's all a hoax, and "Texas is winning!" I'm ready to give up on these people I've known and loved for decades.

Several studies have shown that universal mask usage would likely drop Ncov19 transmission by 90%. Other studies have definitively shown that the earlier a country mandated masks, the better their outcomes were. It's no longer a point of contention, except for the people ignoring the scientific facts. College Basketball is a national game, and that requires every region and school to have essentially entirely healthy players.

The current trajectory suggests that there will be no games through the rest of this year, and likely beyond. That breaks my heart, particularly for my alma mater and favorite team. I truly hope I'm wrong.

The other WCC states are getting absolutely hammered right now. I wish I had better news. There is no "viral attenuation" happening. It's still as infectious (with minimal mutation) and a large number of seriously ill are under 60, and even under 40. I've seen it. We're just protecting our most vulnerable (elderly) better.

I'll reiterate again. Wear masks, wash hands, keep your distance. Follow the recommendations. Hope for the best.

Stay safe all my Zag friends.

Edit: Bottom line -- If YOU WANT TO HAVE BASKETBALL, you have to stop this virus in its tracks. The way you do that is masking, social distancing, testing, testing, testing, contract tracing and quarantining. Outside of masks, these effective methods are as old as time. Do that until we have a safe and effective vaccine.

hegotit!
06-24-2020, 08:02 AM
A question for Caduceus. Is the virus transmittable between people showing no symptoms?

willandi
06-24-2020, 08:09 AM
Hi MDABE80,

Thanks for referencing me and including me in this discussion, I really appreciate your suggestion that I contribute!

Cases are indeed rising in FL and Texas and also a "few" other states. But in this case "a few" means 21 others (https://www.ksbw.com/article/more-young-people-across-south-are-testing-positive-for-coronavirus-officials-warn/32925235#), with over half the nation's people.

The USA is testing more people daily than ever (now up to ~.5million) but we're seeing a higher percent positive tests than recently as well. When your fraction is getting larger just as your denominator grows, you know that your numerator (people sick) is growing faster than the denominator.

From Johns Hopkins: (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states)

https://i.imgur.com/9A5uoep.png

If you could give one example of me ever contributing "some midquote of a outdated medical tidbit" please post a link, a quote, or better yet send me a private message. I'd happily delete it. I'd hate to have posted a misquote of an outdated medical tidbit, and would prefer to delete such a thing if I have posted in up to now. Also, if you can offer a single example of me ever making an interdiction (lame or otherwise), I'd happily retract it.

I hope you are having a great day and enjoying summer in the northwest.

I think the point is, post your data, express your opinions, but then trying to get a rise out of Doc should be left out, just as his towards you should be done without.

The answer is...Only time will tell. All the prognostications, all the charts and all the data don't tell us what WILL happen, only what COULD happen.

tinfoilzag
06-24-2020, 08:26 AM
Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microŲrganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.



So never. That's when you get a vaccine for corona viruses like MERS and the common cold. Outside of curing the common cold, you never get a vaccine.

There is one plan and there has always been one plan. It spreads enough to gain some semblance of herd immunity without overloading the hospitals. You can draw it out or you can rip off the band-aid but the defense is dealing with the spread, not stopping the spread.

At the core of coming up with the solution is politics. Politics is going to creep into every offering of a solution because the solution depends on one's belief. Do you believe that the government is a benevolent force concerned with your well being or people working in their own self-interest and the interest of those in powerful positions. Wherever you are on the spectrum, it influences your opinion.

Deciding to return to normalcy has a cost. Deciding to stay shut down and infringe on liberties has a cost. It depends on what types of prices one is willing to pay.

Based on the governor's current position, it doesn't look like we'll have a 20-21 season at GU.

caduceus
06-24-2020, 09:05 AM
A question for Caduceus. Is the virus transmittable between people showing no symptoms?

It unquestionably is transmissible in that fashion. It's terrible that people have to deal with conflicting information, but part of the problem is that the press doesn't always understand the medical studies, and jump to conclusions. Usually, the medical community is quick to correct those things, but as you probably know.... a lie can travel around the world before the truth even gets its shoes on.

kitzbuel
06-24-2020, 09:07 AM
NY, NJ and Conn now require 14 day quarantine period for anyone coming in from certain states, Washington State being among them.

https://apple.news/AXIKuYbxEQTijie7EU9SnkA

It is only June and we are in the “down” period of respiratory diseases. Roth is going to have to be prepared to do a lot of scheduling on the fly.

Spink
06-24-2020, 09:09 AM
Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microŲrganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.

I learned from the best in Hughes Hall, researched and published on microbiological processes for many a summer at GU. Learned at the largest research University in this state. Worked with many of the epidemiologists and virologists on the front line here in Washington State, including those making policy right now, and shared microscopes with and worked with those that are doing the vast majority of viral testing in our state at the moment. I'm not here to brag, but to share knowledge.

I'm super excited about our emerging rosters. I'm super depressed about the fact that virtually no one will adhere to the advice of our scientists. Pretty much every doctor colleague I know has sadly given up trying to advise the public due to the overwhelming backlash of stupidity, and that includes some of my dearest, dearest alumni friends that send me articles every time there's news that it's all a hoax, and "Texas is winning!" I'm ready to give up on these people I've known and loved for decades.

Several studies have shown that universal mask usage would likely drop Ncov19 transmission by 90%. Other studies have definitively shown that the earlier a country mandated masks, the better their outcomes were. It's no longer a point of contention, except for the people ignoring the scientific facts. College Basketball is a national game, and that requires every region and school to have essentially entirely healthy players.

The current trajectory suggests that there will be no games through the rest of this year, and likely beyond. That breaks my heart, particularly for my alma mater and favorite team. I truly hope I'm wrong.

The other WCC states are getting absolutely hammered right now. I wish I had better news. There is no "viral attenuation" happening. It's still as infectious (with minimal mutation) and a large number of seriously ill are under 60, and even under 40. I've seen it. We're just protecting our most vulnerable (elderly) better.

I'll reiterate again. Wear masks, wash hands, keep your distance. Follow the recommendations. Hope for the best.

Stay safe all my Zag friends.

Edit: Bottom line -- If YOU WANT TO HAVE BASKETBALL, you have to stop this virus in its tracks. The way you do that is masking, social distancing, testing, testing, testing, contract tracing and quarantining. Outside of masks, these effective methods are as old as time. Do that until we have a safe and effective vaccine.

God’s gift to GU board!

Thanks for your opinion. Sorry NOBODY remembered your Feb/Mar post. :)

MDABE80
06-24-2020, 09:23 AM
The biggest problem in the states with spikes is that people somehow think we are out of this and it's gone......thus, masks, distancing, etc have taken a back seat. All along, this was the edict both here on this board and everywhere I've been. Virus isn't gone despite the apparent attenuation. I do not think basketball will start if there is a recurrence. Data so far doesn't seem to reveal that. without precautions and the pending vaccine, anything goes.

Very good post Cad. Not sure about everything in your post but it does clarify many things.and from a very good medical person.........not a pretender.

Reborn
06-24-2020, 09:26 AM
I am not a scientist, nor am I a politician. However, as a graduate of Gonzaga University I can say that I do believe in science. My education helped me discover this fact. So I do follow the guidelines of the recommendations of science, stately very clearly by Caduceus. It has been a little hard to remain safe in my home and wear a mask when going out. But honestly, it is far from being the most difficult thing I've ever done. Actually, it's dang easy. I even made my own mask with the help of my son Demian. It's a small price we need to make in order to save lives and get back to a life style of enjoying life outside our homes.

Go Zags!!!

LTownZag
06-24-2020, 09:42 AM
Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.


Here's the relevant thread/discussion (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67848-How-will-Coronavirus-Impact-the-NCAA-tournament) including Caduceus' posts from early March, there weren't any COVID-related posts from Caduceus in February. It's really interesting to see a time capsule from 3 months ago.

http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67848-How-will-Coronavirus-Impact-the-NCAA-tournament

Another related thread worth a time capsule revisit from 3 months ago, (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67978-NCAA-cancels-remaining-winter-and-spring-championships&p=1512376#post1512376) and I learned an excellent new word from Caduceus:
"Recrudescence"
the recurrence of an undesirable condition.
"recrudescence of the disease is a real possibility"

Zags11
06-24-2020, 09:44 AM
Lets see how MLB works. Then NFL season until november. Then we will see.

caduceus
06-24-2020, 10:03 AM
So never. That's when you get a vaccine for corona viruses like MERS and the common cold. Outside of curing the common cold, you never get a vaccine.

There is one plan and there has always been one plan. It spreads enough to gain some semblance of herd immunity without overloading the hospitals. You can draw it out or you can rip off the band-aid but the defense is dealing with the spread, not stopping the spread.

At the core of coming up with the solution is politics. Politics is going to creep into every offering of a solution because the solution depends on one's belief. Do you believe that the government is a benevolent force concerned with your well being or people working in their own self-interest and the interest of those in powerful positions. Wherever you are on the spectrum, it influences your opinion.

Deciding to return to normalcy has a cost. Deciding to stay shut down and infringe on liberties has a cost. It depends on what types of prices one is willing to pay.

Based on the governor's current position, it doesn't look like we'll have a 20-21 season at GU.

My friend, tinfoil, I have to completely disagree with the first half of your post, from a medical/scientific/epidemiological perspective.

First off, coronavirus comprises a small amount of "common colds." Most colds are rhinoviruses, and second are adenoviruses. Of the dangerous coronaviruses, MERS was too deadly and so there wasn't enough community spread to do a clinical trial. Similarly, SARS petered out before Oxford and others could trial their (nearly ready) vaccines. The other coronaviruses weren't worth the time since they only gave you sniffles.

Herd immunity through nCov-19 "spreading over the population," by some studies suggest 5-7 years before we reach that (without a vaccine), and recent studies suggest antibody protection may only last a matter of a few months. If so, you'll probably NEVER reach herd immunity.

Dealing with the spread (i.e. flattening the curve) is beneficial to prevent overload of the hospital system (which nearly every layperson thinks is the only reason due to the news), but there are a host of other benefits (increasing PPD availability, giving time for better treatments/vaccine, enabling more robust testing [which requires more kits and PPD], hiring contact tracers, establishing more efficient protocols based on region, establishing and training the public and businesses how to operate safely, etc.,etc.). Many other things as well, but it would require an epidemiology course to cover them all. Authorities try to keep it simple so people will hopefully comply, but if you try to explain all these reasons to the public, eyes start to glaze over.

Stopping the spread is something you add onto largely AFTER flattening the curve. Without a vaccine, it's the way you STOP. THE. VIRUS. IN. ITS. TRACKS. It's been known for every serious infectious disease, and is a tried and true public health measure. Once you punch the virus in the mouth by slowing transmission (flattening the curve), you ease restrictions gently, test expansively, isolate the positives, and find their recent contacts (contact tracing) and isolate them as well. It's highly effective when applied properly (see just about every other country that's done better than the U.S.). Some call it the Hammer and the Dance. Lockdown is the hammer. Opening up, and test, isolate and contact trace is the dance. If things get worse, you apply the hammer again. If things get better, you gently apply the dance.

The problem is is that people want the light switch approach. Off/On. There are nuances to this. You HAVE to take that into consideration, and you have to apply them regionally. The big problem is that the population won't adhere to restrictions if they're applied all at once. The CDC has known this since the 50s, so even their protocols call for gentle introduction to the public of measures that are anathema to typical everyday life. Unfortunately, people use this as an argument that they're not consistent, or that they're moving the goalposts. Add to that the changing conditions on the ground, and you end up with even bigger problems. IT'S NOT EASY!

Your second half of the post regards politics. I won't get into that as that's not for this board, and not a topic I'm interested in discussing. I advocate following the science. I understand there are societal, economic, whatever issues. But, if the science was listened to early on, we'd be over this largely and college basketball would not be having nearly the issues that they are facing. A sad truth.

We applied the hammer, and it worked. Nobody wanted to deal with the dance, and thought it was all over. Fauci is right. We're going to be dealing with this for a good long while. It all starts with TESTING.

Pray for a vaccine sooner rather than later, and enough doses to distribute it.

MDABE80
06-24-2020, 10:07 AM
So where have you been Cad??? The lab? Good to see you posting again and in such clear terms.

caduceus
06-24-2020, 10:16 AM
So where have you been Cad??? The lab? Good to see you posting again and in such clear terms.

Hey, partner. I'm sort of allergic to the off-season. I get too wrapped up during the on-season! I lurk (often) from Apr-Oct, just don't post unless my britches are burning. I generally avoid the recruiting stuff because it's often toxic, but it's like opening a present on Christmas Day when the season starts!

Birddog
06-24-2020, 10:23 AM
Lets see how MLB works. Then NFL season until november. Then we will see.

I heard that spitting and sunflower seeds will be banned but the players will still be allowed to scratch their balls and rearrange their package.

kitzbuel
06-24-2020, 10:46 AM
Lets see how MLB works. Then NFL season until november. Then we will see.

There is a top level league playing now, the German Bundesliga. They are playing behind closed doors, players are tested at least twice a week, there are tight controls on players living spaces (homes and hotels), no use of team facilities like locker rooms and showers.

The Bundesliga is being studied closely by other leagues across the world.

I think all College sports conferences would be wise to look at this model.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

MDABE80
06-24-2020, 11:14 AM
Kitz love the Korean pro leagues. Look in sometime. They are very very good. They seem to get a lot out of their fastballs.90=95 mph. from such smallish frames. It's a great league.

kitzbuel
06-24-2020, 11:27 AM
Kitz love the Korean pro leagues. Look in sometime. They are very very good. They seem to get a lot out of their fastballs.90=95 mph. from such smallish frames. It's a great league.

Itís a sport, itís on TV, so Iím watching it!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

tinfoilzag
06-24-2020, 11:29 AM
My friend, tinfoil, I have to completely disagree with the first half of your post, from a medical/scientific/epidemiological perspective.

First off, coronavirus comprises a small amount of "common colds." Most colds are rhinoviruses, and second are adenoviruses. Of the dangerous coronaviruses, MERS was too deadly and so there wasn't enough community spread to do a clinical trial. Similarly, SARS petered out before Oxford and others could trial their (nearly ready) vaccines. The other coronaviruses weren't worth the time since they only gave you sniffles.

Herd immunity through nCov-19 "spreading over the population," by some studies suggest 5-7 years before we reach that (without a vaccine), and recent studies suggest antibody protection may only last a matter of a few months. If so, you'll probably NEVER reach herd immunity.

Dealing with the spread (i.e. flattening the curve) is beneficial to prevent overload of the hospital system (which nearly every layperson thinks is the only reason due to the news), but there are a host of other benefits (increasing PPD availability, giving time for better treatments/vaccine, enabling more robust testing [which requires more kits and PPD], hiring contact tracers, establishing more efficient protocols based on region, establishing and training the public and businesses how to operate safely, etc.,etc.). Many other things as well, but it would require an epidemiology course to cover them all. Authorities try to keep it simple so people will hopefully comply, but if you try to explain all these reasons to the public, eyes start to glaze over.

Stopping the spread is something you add onto largely AFTER flattening the curve. Without a vaccine, it's the way you STOP. THE. VIRUS. IN. ITS. TRACKS. It's been known for every serious infectious disease, and is a tried and true public health measure. Once you punch the virus in the mouth by slowing transmission (flattening the curve), you ease restrictions gently, test expansively, isolate the positives, and find their recent contacts (contact tracing) and isolate them as well. It's highly effective when applied properly (see just about every other country that's done better than the U.S.). Some call it the Hammer and the Dance. Lockdown is the hammer. Opening up, and test, isolate and contact trace is the dance. If things get worse, you apply the hammer again. If things get better, you gently apply the dance.

The problem is is that people want the light switch approach. Off/On. There are nuances to this. You HAVE to take that into consideration, and you have to apply them regionally. The big problem is that the population won't adhere to restrictions if they're applied all at once. The CDC has known this since the 50s, so even their protocols call for gentle introduction to the public of measures that are anathema to typical everyday life. Unfortunately, people use this as an argument that they're not consistent, or that they're moving the goalposts. Add to that the changing conditions on the ground, and you end up with even bigger problems. IT'S NOT EASY!

Your second half of the post regards politics. I won't get into that as that's not for this board, and not a topic I'm interested in discussing. I advocate following the science. I understand there are societal, economic, whatever issues. But, if the science was listened to early on, we'd be over this largely and college basketball would not be having nearly the issues that they are facing. A sad truth.

We applied the hammer, and it worked. Nobody wanted to deal with the dance, and thought it was all over. Fauci is right. We're going to be dealing with this for a good long while. It all starts with TESTING.

Pray for a vaccine sooner rather than later, and enough doses to distribute it.

Everything you state is reasonable with some issues that make this situation different:

- We don't have vaccines for the Corona version of the common cold. Corona-type viruses are extremely difficult to vaccinate for. I don't think we can plan for "temporary" restrictions that last years while we wait for something that never comes. On top of that, Covid-19 also can infect several types of tissue and there seems to be a viral load component which leads to the next point....

- Covid-19 is different because it was given properties that are outside of a naturally evolving virus that jumps species. As you know, when a virus jumps species, it is very damaging to the host because the host has no defenses against something new (Novel) but it is difficult for the virus to reproduce as it hasn't evolved to shed from the new species. Covid-19 is novel AND highly contagious, so that natural controls that help control something like SARS are not present with Covid-19. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4996883/

- Our elected officials chose politics over safety when they didn't condemn the riots to control the spread of the disease. This has caused them to lose moral authority and now people will not comply with health orders because they see it as political struggle instead of a health struggle.

- US citizens don't deal well with being tracked and being told what to do. And when I say they don't deal well with it, I mean they won't in big enough numbers over months/years for a nationwide quarantine to succeed.

- I believe in the scientific method as well. Believing in "science" though, it starts to make it sound like science is defined and settled when it is constantly evolving with our understanding.

- The quarantine (hammer) did not work. It worked as a triage but could not be sustained. The lock down was a key factor in the riots. It created a tinderbox that just needed a spark. People's immune systems are being degraded to stress, lack of exercise, and lack of sunshine (vitamin D).

I respect your posts and think we just differ in approach. You appear to be approaching this from the standpoint that we can "cure the patient" where I see it as a quality of life as we "treat the patient" with a chronic illness. IMO This isn't about the eliminating the disease, it's about us living with the disease from my point of view.

BurgessEraZag
06-24-2020, 11:35 AM
Thank you Caduecus for a measured and informing post relying on science and your obvious extensive medical and academic expertise.
As an 81-year-old retired attorney I have the advantage of "staying home", social distancing, wearing a mask when necessary and using "personal responsibility" to not take unwise risks so I am "Dancing" as you say to help prevent the spread of virus. Not all of our community's citizens, state's citizens or America's citizens have the privilege or advantages I have to help with the dance. More about that later.
I have no complaint or quibble with your analysis scientifically and I hope my post will not sound political but there is indeed a "human" issue for many of our fellow citizens which has not been considered.
First let's look at Washington.gov statistics reported on 6/22. In WA counties that day there were 29386 coronavirus cases reported, 1284 deaths, 4067 hospitalizations and 487059 total cases reported. The WA website opines accurately that the deaths were 4.4% of the cases and total positive tests were 6%.
The site did not report what percentage of the deaths were "caused" by corona or just the deaths occurred "with" corona. Suspect at least a significant number were elderly and compromised persons sadly who were in the end stages of life. The hospitalizations of the reported cases was 14% which sounds scarey until you note that 86% of the cases were either positive but asymptomatic or did not need inpatient care (and we assume will recover). 86% is a good number.
When 6% of the tested cases are positive that means 94% were negative. Again 94% is a very good number. I hope I've used my math skills to report correctly. In Washington where the governor decides what happens (and obviously that effects all of us GU fans, and myself a 1961 graduate)
Based on the numbers above but reading the media reports or listening to many TV and Radio reporters they never mention the 86% asymptomatic and non-inpatient persons tested nor the 94% of tested people who were negative.
So as I reported above I will be a complient patient (who is negative tested) but a little worried about the people in our state who don't have the benefit of Mediccare, Social Secuirty and Retirement benefits who now are unemployed, maybe with no medical insurance and trying to raise 1, 2 or maybe 3 kids. From a science evaluation basis I guess we want them to wear masks, social distance and stay home. How in the hell are they going to survive?
That's my proposition now. This is not only a medical science issue but a human issue which needs to be considered. Please help me. I practiced for 35 years looking at issues, evidence and tried to serve my clients to a fair and reasonable result. I like Dr. Fauci and I liked your analysis but can you help me understand how we deal with all the other "non-political issues" on a human, caring and loving way?

DZ
06-24-2020, 11:52 AM
Remarkably, it is very difficult to find another First World Nation where the cases are rising, except for us, and they're going way up.

Cases are at all time highs where I live. Houston is now putting adults in peds hospitals, almost out of ICU space, Florida is right at the edge of the same cliff.

Unless something huge changes in the next 90 days I don't see any possible way to have a season.

My daughter asked me when things might be "normal again" and I said (guessing) "next summer at the earliest" and I think that's right.

Bogozags
06-24-2020, 12:07 PM
I went to an electrician the other day and asked him about my in-grown-toe-nail...he looked at me as if I was crazy. He told me he is an electrician and that I should go ask the doctor as MD's have the answer to medical issues. I thought this was just crazy, I mean if the TOP medical minds in the country say wear masks then that is the direction we should go!!! No matter if "leaders" chose not to wear them because they don't look good or not you should wear them AND "IF" everyone wore them and kept social distancing and wash their hands regularly, then maybe, just maybe this virus could be controlled BUT since there are "leaders" out there that don't want to wear them, so then others won't wear them so whose liberties are being tested?

I live in South Carolina and the governor says maintain social distancing BUT it is ok for two none family members to SHARE THE SAME GOLF CART!!! This is As-a-nine so it is apparent that some "leaders" are not following the guide lines set forth by highly respected medical doctors and still go do their own thing. The CDC says stay away from large groups of more than 10 so there were over 10K partying in Tulsa and another large group smoozing in Phoenix??? And we wonder why the virus numbers continue to go up???

As Caduceus stated, the virus can and will dampen our hopes for a season if COVID19 continues to flourish.

kitzbuel
06-24-2020, 12:59 PM
Thank you Caduecus for a measured and informing post relying on science and your obvious extensive medical and academic expertise.
As an 81-year-old retired attorney I have the advantage of "staying home", social distancing, wearing a mask when necessary and using "personal responsibility" to not take unwise risks so I am "Dancing" as you say to help prevent the spread of virus. Not all of our community's citizens, state's citizens or America's citizens have the privilege or advantages I have to help with the dance. More about that later.
I have no complaint or quibble with your analysis scientifically and I hope my post will not sound political but there is indeed a "human" issue for many of our fellow citizens which has not been considered.
First let's look at Washington.gov statistics reported on 6/22. In WA counties that day there were 29386 coronavirus cases reported, 1284 deaths, 4067 hospitalizations and 487059 total cases reported. The WA website opines accurately that the deaths were 4.4% of the cases and total positive tests were 6%.
The site did not report what percentage of the deaths were "caused" by corona or just the deaths occurred "with" corona. Suspect at least a significant number were elderly and compromised persons sadly who were in the end stages of life. The hospitalizations of the reported cases was 14% which sounds scarey until you note that 86% of the cases were either positive but asymptomatic or did not need inpatient care (and we assume will recover). 86% is a good number.
When 6% of the tested cases are positive that means 94% were negative. Again 94% is a very good number. I hope I've used my math skills to report correctly. In Washington where the governor decides what happens (and obviously that effects all of us GU fans, and myself a 1961 graduate)
Based on the numbers above but reading the media reports or listening to many TV and Radio reporters they never mention the 86% asymptomatic and non-inpatient persons tested nor the 94% of tested people who were negative.
So as I reported above I will be a complient patient (who is negative tested) but a little worried about the people in our state who don't have the benefit of Mediccare, Social Secuirty and Retirement benefits who now are unemployed, maybe with no medical insurance and trying to raise 1, 2 or maybe 3 kids. From a science evaluation basis I guess we want them to wear masks, social distance and stay home. How in the hell are they going to survive?
That's my proposition now. This is not only a medical science issue but a human issue which needs to be considered. Please help me. I practiced for 35 years looking at issues, evidence and tried to serve my clients to a fair and reasonable result. I like Dr. Fauci and I liked your analysis but can you help me understand how we deal with all the other "non-political issues" on a human, caring and loving way?


Burg

The targeted test percentage standard is less than 5% positive. You want to have enough widespread testing so that your positive is less than 5%.

1. You are testing significantly enough to over the built in bias of testing those that we know have it. The sample test population has to be be broad enough to show the true scope of transmission and if we are biased towards those that latest positive we donít get a true representative population sample.

2. If infection rates grow enough to where positive results are greater than 5% with large scale testing then it is an indicator that the infection rate is out of control.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

caduceus
06-24-2020, 02:24 PM
Everything you state is reasonable with some issues that make this situation different:

- We don't have vaccines for the Corona version of the common cold. Corona-type viruses are extremely difficult to vaccinate for. I don't think we can plan for "temporary" restrictions that last years while we wait for something that never comes. On top of that, Covid-19 also can infect several types of tissue and there seems to be a viral load component which leads to the next point....

We don't have vaccines for corona-cold viruses mainly because there hasn't been a focus, funding or need, relative to other infectious diseases. Uncommon, self-limiting, very, very low mortality. Priorities.

Your second sentence is untrue. We don't know that. Prior phase 3 clinical trials had to be halted before endpoints could be reached (community spread ended of these diseases, thus effectiveness in vivo couldn't be discerned). We have other successful RNA viral vaccines. Will we have a COVID-19 vaccine? Perhaps. We don't know yet. That is why we have multiple concurrent clinical trials going, at-risk pre-production of doses, and more money spent on it than any other vaccine, ever.

Your third sentence is an opinion, and I get it, respect it. Many people feel the same. But I'd just offer: be careful that your feelings don't overlook the biology. All you have to look at is the influenza pandemic of 1918. Killed maybe 100 million, in four waves over three years. The first wave (spring-summer 1918) took an estimated 10-20,000 U.S. lives. Our current coronavirus visitor has killed at least 10 times that many Americans over less time, and that's WITH a lockdown (there was none in 1918). If COVID-19 roars back in the fall (like H1N1 in 1918 did), you may not have a choice about "temporary restrictions" no matter what your feelings. Kids and teachers won't go to school. Many, many people won't venture out, regardless of whether the law says they can. I don't mean that with any disrespect, just a word of precaution. My advice is hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. We have just a couple of months. Remember, less than 5% of the population has been exposed.



- Covid-19 is different because it was given properties that are outside of a naturally evolving virus that jumps species. As you know, when a virus jumps species, it is very damaging to the host because the host has no defenses against something new (Novel) but it is difficult for the virus to reproduce as it hasn't evolved to shed from the new species. Covid-19 is novel AND highly contagious, so that natural controls that help control something like SARS are not present with Covid-19. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4996883/

I won't get into complicated details, but your assumptions here are largely incorrect. Yes, it's novel to humans and came from xenotropic transmission. There are millions, probably billions of different viruses on this planet. Only a very, very small portion of those infect humans, or even animals. Aside from that, your posted article seems to be pointing toward some eerie plot. Numerous studies, including highly regarded geneticists right here in our state, have unequivocally determined that the genome of nCOV19 is by natural occurrence. Not going to entertain wacky conspiracy theories.



- Our elected officials chose politics over safety when they didn't condemn the riots to control the spread of the disease. This has caused them to lose moral authority and now people will not comply with health orders because they see it as political struggle instead of a health struggle.

- US citizens don't deal well with being tracked and being told what to do. And when I say they don't deal well with it, I mean they won't in big enough numbers over months/years for a nationwide quarantine to succeed.

This is mostly politics (not going there), but I'll agree that there's enough anti-science people that will take this pandemic at their peril and the peril of their loved ones.


- I believe in the scientific method as well. Believing in "science" though, it starts to make it sound like science is defined and settled when it is constantly evolving with our understanding.

No one should care what it sounds like. It's irrelevant. Yes, there is very little in science that's "settled." We learn new things every day, good or bad. Science doesn't have an agenda. Another reason why these pandemic guidelines change. We learn something new, we change our approach. And hopefully we win.


- The quarantine (hammer) did not work.

Absolutely it did. Likely saved thousands of lives (early studies are strongly indicative at this point). The "dance" isn't working because people don't want to play that game, and there was no coordinated effort to test, trace, isolate. Now we are going back to early April which is no surprise to me. Except now we have 18,000 active cases roaming Washington State instead of 9,000 when everyone was scared.


I respect your posts and think we just differ in approach. You appear to be approaching this from the standpoint that we can "cure the patient" where I see it as a quality of life as we "treat the patient" with a chronic illness. IMO This isn't about the eliminating the disease, it's about us living with the disease from my point of view.

I appreciate that. I've spent most of my life treating the patient directly at the bedside (and teaching doctors and residents, med students, and other HC professionals, and doing medical research, and so on). Will we move from pandemic -> endemic? Probably. Eventually. I don't think we've reached halftime in the pandemic game. Hope for a vaccine. In the meantime, we MUST approach this like those countries that are winning the battle. We are losing, badly.

I'll probably go back to lurking if this discussion devolves into more politics and conspiracy. I'm on GUBoards "vacation" after all. ;)

Cheers.

caduceus
06-24-2020, 02:28 PM
Burg

The targeted test percentage standard is less than 5% positive. You want to have enough widespread testing so that your positive is less than 5%.

1. You are testing significantly enough to over the built in bias of testing those that we know have it. The sample test population has to be be broad enough to show the true scope of transmission and if we are biased towards those that latest positive we donít get a true representative population sample.

2. If infection rates grow enough to where positive results are greater than 5% with large scale testing then it is an indicator that the infection rate is out of control.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What he said. https://i.imgur.com/mN9kIQo.png

sylean
06-24-2020, 03:27 PM
before the Vegas tournament I posted about my fear that the vegas tourney would be cancelled....I was scoffed at....glad we went though.....great time.....

the lockdown was wrong headed....the vulnerable should have been asked to isolate.....what we did was just prolong the virus's course.....

people say they follow science until it doesn't agree with them....science tells us that there will always be virus's around , even after covid....science tells us that a virus runs its course, and it weakens....science tells us that the sickliest, and oldest will always be more susceptible to any disease...

there is no vaccine for the common cold, another corona virus....I wouldn't bet that covid will have a completely effective vaccine ....many people get the flu after getting the flu shot...

testing is showing more people have or had the virus because we are testing so many more.....the death rate however is low....

people want 100% safety and the truth is there is no such thing....

tinfoilzag
06-24-2020, 03:34 PM
We don't have corona-cold viruses mainly because there hasn't been a focus, funding or need, relative to other infectious diseases. Uncommon, self-limiting, very, very low mortality. Priorities.

Your second sentence is untrue. We don't know that. Prior phase 3 clinical trials had to be halted before endpoints could be reached (community spread ended of these diseases, thus effectiveness in vivo couldn't be discerned). We have other successful RNA viral vaccines. Will we have a COVID-19 vaccine? Perhaps. We don't know yet. That is why we have multiple concurrent clinical trials going, at-risk pre-production of doses, and more money spent on it than any other vaccine, ever.

Your third sentence is an opinion, and I get it, respect it. Many people feel the same. But I'd just offer: be careful that your feelings don't overlook the biology. All you have to look at is the influenza pandemic of 1918. Killed maybe 100 million, in four waves over three years. The first wave (spring-summer 1918) took an estimated 10-20,000 U.S. lives. Our current coronavirus visitor has killed at least 10 times that many Americans over less time, and that's WITH a lockdown (there was none in 1918). If COVID-19 roars back in the fall (like H1N1 in 1918 did), you may not have a choice about "temporary restrictions" no matter what your feelings. Kids and teachers won't go to school. Many, many people won't venture out, regardless of whether the law says they can. I don't mean that with any disrespect, just a word of precaution. My advice is hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. We have just a couple of months. Remember, less than 5% of the population has been exposed.




I won't get into complicated details, but your assumptions here are largely incorrect. Yes, it's novel to humans and came from xenotropic transmission. There are millions, probably billions of different viruses on this planet. Only a very, very small portion of those infect humans, or even animals. Aside from that, your posted article seems to be pointing toward some eerie plot. Numerous studies, including highly regarded geneticists right here in our state, have unequivocally determined that the genome of nCOV19 is by natural occurrence. Not going to entertain wacky conspiracy theories.




This is mostly politics (not going there), but I'll agree that there's enough anti-science people that will take this pandemic at their peril and the peril of their loved ones.



No one should care what it sounds like. It's irrelevant. Yes, there is very little in science that's "settled." We learn new things every day, good or bad. Science doesn't have an agenda. Another reason why these pandemic guidelines change. We learn something new, we change our approach. And hopefully we win.



Absolutely it did. Likely saved thousands of lives (early studies are strongly indicative at this point). The "dance" isn't working because people don't want to play that game, and there was no coordinated effort to test, trace, isolate. Now we are going back to early April which is no surprise to me. Except now we have 18,000 active cases roaming Washington State instead of 9,000 when everyone was scared.



I appreciate that. I've spent most of my life treating the patient directly at the bedside (and teaching doctors and residents, med students, and other HC professionals, and doing medical research, and so on). Will we move from pandemic -> endemic? Probably. Eventually. I don't think we've reached halftime in the pandemic game. Hope for a vaccine. In the meantime, we MUST approach this like those countries that are winning the battle. We are losing, badly.

I'll probably go back to lurking if this discussion devolves into more politics and conspiracy. I'm on GUBoards "vacation" after all. ;)

Cheers.

Good points.

I hope that resources and urgency were the things holding back vaccines for corona viruses.

There's a level 4 bio-safety lab in Wuhan specializing in bat-borne viruses and it's a coincidence that that's where it started? I won't push it because it seems a non-starter for you but we should consider all possibilities if we want to combat this new virus.

When an infected populous feels like they have been mislead to the point where they disregard guidance, that's not a political issue, it's a trust issue. Behavior is key in preventing the spread and behavioral controls have been compromised. This is in part due to lies (saying that masks didn't work early to avoid a run), selective enforcement (supporting protests that would lead to super spreader events to save face) and overstating the threat (misrepresenting death count and sensational models). Our media and experts have been very wrong recently and there is no faith in them or their data.

Try to get grant money for research and tell me that science doesn't have an agenda. Taking on risk doesn't make you anti-science.

Some people value their business, freedom, and even basketball careers as much as they value their lives (let alone the life of a stranger). With the extremes in value systems, behavior will also vary wildly. Without uniform behavior, quarantines are not going to work in the mid to long-term. If the solution to any problem is "if everyone would just do x", it's not going to work.

willandi
06-24-2020, 04:02 PM
before the Vegas tournament I posted about my fear that the vegas tourney would be cancelled....I was scoffed at....glad we went though.....great time.....

the lockdown was wrong headed....the vulnerable should have been asked to isolate.....what we did was just prolong the virus's course.....

people say they follow science until it doesn't agree with them....science tells us that there will always be virus's around , even after covid....science tells us that a virus runs its course, and it weakens....science tells us that the sickliest, and oldest will always be more susceptible to any disease...

there is no vaccine for the common cold, another corona virus....I wouldn't bet that covid will have a completely effective vaccine ....many people get the flu after getting the flu shot...

testing is showing more people have or had the virus because we are testing so many more.....the death rate however is low....

people want 100% safety and the truth is there is no such thing....

We didn't have a lock down. We had a half assed try at sometimes quarantine. Many states didn't participate and, in the states that did, many people didn't.
If we had had a hard and virtually total lockdown, we would be just about over this.

DZ
06-24-2020, 04:15 PM
Some people value their business, freedom, and even basketball careers as much as they value their lives (let alone the life of a stranger). With the extremes in value systems, behavior will also vary wildly. Without uniform behavior, quarantines are not going to work in the mid to long-term. If the solution to any problem is "if everyone would just do x", it's not going to work.

I don't want to get into how many ways I disagree with the other aspects of what you posted but it's just a disagreement.

All I wanted to point out is that from my point of view the news/experts have been right every step of the way, within reason and it continues right on through today.

We have the highest recorded total positives today, and anyone who says it is "just more testing" should explain that to the doctors in Houston and Miami where they are running out of ICU beds (Houston at 98%), which will be increasingly apparent this coming week.

But as to your last point I suppose people in Europe don't value their business, freedom, or basketball careers near as much as the value their lives (And strangers' lives, as I suspect I'm even more respectful of others' lives over mine).

A quarantine does work. Whether we in the U.S. are a mature enough as a people to do it or not, is certainly up in the air, we haven't yet. The solution isn't that different to the solution to drunk driving: "If everyone would just get a designated driver …" and deaths went down, people changed knowing they could hurt others.


Here is a chart of day to day positives (https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1275596616963985409), Euro numbers align pretty well with ours in total cases, and then how we've done over the months versus them. I guess they're just more disciplined, and that's why they're opening their economies while Texas and Florida are about to shut theirs.

MDABE80
06-24-2020, 04:55 PM
Dixie nobody is disputing that FL, TX and AZ are having spikes in the disease.....I do think much of it is due to not using the protection guidlines.
Imprtantly as the younger set gets infected, the survival rate is better. I do not know how Cad or Tin feels about attenuation.but it looks like thats happening as the older hosts in general seem to be doing better ( Maybe most vulnerable of them passed already) except in NY, NJ where management is just stupid due to incompetent governors.

In my life, I've always worried about doing the best thing...in my case I worry after treatment... that maybe the best thing wasn't done.........I know this much: I'm tired of this COVID 19 virus and the recurrent discussions about it when few, if any, really can put their fingers on the facts and then make something work properly.

We do have principles of management though.and they usually work. Distance, masking, and common sense measures.......should continue.

tinfoilzag
06-24-2020, 05:05 PM
A quarantine does work. Whether we in the U.S. are a mature enough as a people to do it or not, is certainly up in the air, we haven't yet. The solution isn't that different to the solution to drunk driving: "If everyone would just get a designated driver …" and deaths went down, people changed knowing they could hurt others.



All countries are too different to compare (culture, climate, diet, geography, etc.). Apples to oranges comparison.

You're making my point when you say 'not mature enough' in the US for quarantine. That means the quarantine won't work over time because you don't have compliance. People's behavior is a key component of quarantine. To your drunk driving analogy, we have to have drunk driving patrols and over-serving rules and education campaigns and huge penalties and they are still happening. All this stuff to stop drunk driving and you can't eliminate it. Reduced but not eliminated. You have many more people that are going to ignore lock down orders than drunk driver laws by percentage.

It's another case of "the system to save the people would work if it wasn't for the people."

I'm not saying quarantine doesn't work, i'm saying it doesn't work without people changing their behavior. If US citizens by in large aren't willing to change, then there needs to be a different plan because right now we are destroying businesses and lives at the same time we are spreading the disease.

willandi
06-24-2020, 06:09 PM
All countries are too different to compare (culture, climate, diet, geography, etc.). Apples to oranges comparison.

You're making my point when you say 'not mature enough' in the US for quarantine. That means the quarantine won't work over time because you don't have compliance. People's behavior is a key component of quarantine. To your drunk driving analogy, we have to have drunk driving patrols and over-serving rules and education campaigns and huge penalties and they are still happening. All this stuff to stop drunk driving and you can't eliminate it. Reduced but not eliminated. You have many more people that are going to ignore lock down orders than drunk driver laws by percentage.

It's another case of "the system to save the people would work if it wasn't for the people."

I'm not saying quarantine doesn't work, i'm saying it doesn't work without people changing their behavior. If US citizens by in large aren't willing to change, then there needs to be a different plan because right now we are destroying businesses and lives at the same time we are spreading the disease.

If we had HAD a lock down, virtually complete, for 6 weeks, we would be over this. The virus transfers from person to person. If no people are interacting, there would be no transmission.

I posted this on Facebook today and thought I had already posted it here, but apparently not.

"Hindsight is, indeed 20/20.

In my opinion, what needed to be done in mid March was for there to be a single entity, at the head of this country, that mandated a 6 week quarantine. Health care workers, grocery store and pharmacy workers, to put your online or phoned in orders into the trunk of your car, truck drivers for delivery of products for the groceries, utility workers, on a rotating/skeletal staff, and the same for package delivery of medical necessities should be the ONLY essential workers. All others quarantined in home excepting to get food and medicine.
Strict monitoring and fines, graduated for repeat offenders up to, and including, incarcerations for those unwilling.
Rent and bills are held in abeyance. A single time check to ALL eligible individual workers should be paid...no companies and no corporations. Make the check large enough that no person or family is hurting (and having Amazon etc unavailable means the money WILL go to necessities.) The essential workers get this money plus their wages. Maybe $5000/person. Still less than the largesse shown to the corporations and the rich.
Had this been done in March, we would be over this coronavirus now.

The question is, could it be done now?"

DZ
06-24-2020, 06:17 PM
All countries are too different to compare (culture, climate, diet, geography, etc.). Apples to oranges comparison.

You're making my point when you say 'not mature enough' in the US for quarantine. That means the quarantine won't work over time because you don't have compliance. People's behavior is a key component of quarantine. To your drunk driving analogy, we have to have drunk driving patrols and over-serving rules and education campaigns and huge penalties and they are still happening. All this stuff to stop drunk driving and you can't eliminate it. Reduced but not eliminated. You have many more people that are going to ignore lock down orders than drunk driver laws by percentage.

It's another case of "the system to save the people would work if it wasn't for the people."

I'm not saying quarantine doesn't work, i'm saying it doesn't work without people changing their behavior. If US citizens by in large aren't willing to change, then there needs to be a different plan because right now we are destroying businesses and lives at the same time we are spreading the disease.

So in the entire world, we are the one country unable to do it. They're apples, we're oranges.

I don't agree with anything you've said, so I'll stop now and just leave a link with the rest of the world's performance versus ours, and you're argument is that we're the one nation unwilling or unable to do it. (And we can't include the whole nation bc the Northeast now looks like the rest of the world's graphs (https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1275937026097983491/photo/1).

tinfoilzag
06-24-2020, 06:31 PM
So in the entire world, we are the one country unable to do it. They're apples, we're oranges.


I think this is well stated. We are so fundamentally different, we'll need our own solution.

Zags11
06-24-2020, 08:16 PM
Been 3 plus months. Hope it doesn't turn into a year plus.

GoZags
06-24-2020, 09:49 PM
Washington State is NOT on the list anymore. For a brief time the State was, but it was taken off after a review of the data.


NY, NJ and Conn now require 14 day quarantine period for anyone coming in from certain states, Washington State being among them.

https://apple.news/AXIKuYbxEQTijie7EU9SnkA

It is only June and we are in the ďdownĒ period of respiratory diseases. Roth is going to have to be prepared to do a lot of scheduling on the fly.

caduceus
06-25-2020, 02:50 AM
Big drop in new cases GZ. Very good news! Somebody wanna break this news to LTown who seems to thrive on wrong data.:) No offense intended.

Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?

https://i.imgur.com/epbwbG6.png


*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.


(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)

DZ
06-25-2020, 04:25 AM
I think this is well stated. We are so fundamentally different, we'll need our own solution.

So we are actually the one country that can't deal with it.

We don't have a solution. Our "solution" - as you argued - has been mostly to pretend it's not here and we can't do anything, even though everywhere else has done a great job and results have been about the same everywhere else.

How far we've fallen. The rest of the world is now in their post-phase, we're reaching new highs. And some take pride in it. Terrible.

ZagaZags
06-25-2020, 04:48 AM
Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?

https://i.imgur.com/epbwbG6.png


*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.


(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)

Fake news? I can't keep up. Sometimes it is good to be in large crowds and sometimes it isn't. Who decides?

LTownZag
06-25-2020, 06:57 AM
Big drop in new cases GZ. Very good news! Somebody wanna break this news to LTown who seems to thrive on wrong data. No offense intended.

For some reason the moderators have decided that you de-facto calling someone ignorant, dishonest, or a knowing liar without giving any evidence isn't a problem here, but ethically and personally it's something I'd hope a public-facing MD in his 70s or 80s had grown out of maybe 5 or 6 decades ago.

If you can find a single example of me posting incorrect data, would you please provide the example? I'll extend the request to any predictions, which I've almost entirely avoided making.

Meanwhile, I was double-checking the graphs and stats I posted earlier, to make sure nothing was erroneous or out of context, and came across this prediction, which will be 2 months old as of tomorrow.


looking at the data, this viral thing is fading pretty fast..in terms of admissions, new cases, ventilator usage, ICU pts and deaths. I suspect this may be gone by September. Precautions will remain but the sickness will be infrequent unless the media continues to exaggerate the danger.

MDABE80
06-25-2020, 08:52 AM
Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?

https://i.imgur.com/epbwbG6.png


*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.


(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)

NO worries Cad..........different states. Very high profile states..... I got this;)

ZagsObserver
06-25-2020, 09:16 AM
The amount of sniping on here is distressing. Believe it or not, there can be a diversity of opinions on here. That is okay.

MDABE80
06-25-2020, 09:56 AM
Correct ZO. Tiresome isnt it!! All thing to be taken with a grain of salt;)

DonJuan
06-25-2020, 09:59 AM
It's not just Washington State. California has had a record spike in cases, and it looks grim. I really don't see any WCC teams from CA playing college basketball this season.

Markburn1
06-25-2020, 10:00 AM
Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?

https://i.imgur.com/epbwbG6.png


*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.


(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)

Wouldn't you say this chart is misleading? I see these # of cases charts almost universally. What you don't see on a consistent basis are the charts that show hospitalizations and deaths.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard

Consider chart # 2. It shows deaths in Washington State are 8-10 times less than at the peak.

Consider chart # 6. It shows hospitalizations in the state to be approximately 75% of the peak.

Isn't it probable that the virus has claimed the most vulnerable and though cases are climbing for various reasons the folks that are being infected are nowhere near the danger of death and hospitalization we saw at peak?

I don't know how to post the charts. If someone would be so kind to do so I would appreciate it.

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 10:04 AM
Wouldn't you say this chart is misleading? I see these # of cases charts almost universally. What you don't see on a consistent basis are the charts that show hospitalizations and deaths.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard

Consider chart # 2. It shows deaths in Washington State are 8-10 times less than at the peak.

Consider chart # 6. It shows hospitalizations in the state to be approximately 75% of the peak.

Isn't it probable that the virus has claimed the most vulnerable and though cases are climbing for various reasons the folks that are being infected are nowhere near the danger of death and hospitalization we saw at peak?

I don't know how to post the charts. If someone would be so kind to do so I would appreciate it.

The more likely explanation for me is that testing capacity has expanded and a higher percentage of the total actual infections are being documented. However, the recent trend is still not good and spikes in hospitalizations and deaths are typically going to be lagging after the spikes in cases.

Markburn1
06-25-2020, 10:08 AM
The more likely explanation for me is that testing capacity has expanded and a higher percentage of the total actual infections are being documented. However, the recent trend is still not good and spikes in hospitalizations and deaths are typically going to be lagging after the spikes in cases.

That isn't what the data says. Cases have been going up for several weeks now, yet deaths and hospitalizations have been going down. That's what the charts say.

Can one of you tech wizards post the charts please?

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 10:19 AM
That isn't what the data says. Cases have been going up for several weeks now, yet deaths and hospitalizations have been going down. That's what the charts say.

Can one of you tech wizards post the charts please?

I'm looking at the daily rolling 7 day average on the chart Caduceus posted and you quoted. It looks like that trend line has only been substantially going up for the last week, doubling in that time frame.

When contact tracing started, it was expected that documented cases would go up because we would be doing targeted testing of many aysymptomatic or presymptomatic people. So a rise in cases as that happened did not necessarily indicate a rise in infections and a steady trend line might have meant that infections were actually going down during that time. Which would explain why hospitalizations and deaths were declining while the trend line was pretty steady from April 16 - June 16.

Markburn1
06-25-2020, 10:23 AM
As for Europe doing so much better than us cretins in the U.S. that don't value lives like they do...

Deaths per million people due to Covid.
US 374
UK 637
Spain 606
Italy 574
Belgium 839
Sweden 518
France 455
Netherlands 356
Ireland 350

Stats from Worldometer.

johno
06-25-2020, 10:25 AM
The Center for Disease Control has all the science based information and advice and if people would strictly follow it we could beat this thing. No leadership at the top is one big problem. Are we turning into a society in which the preventable deaths of many innocent people is the cost we are prepared to accept?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Markburn1
06-25-2020, 10:41 AM
The Center for Disease Control has all the science based information and advice and if people would strictly follow it we could beat this thing. No leadership at the top is one big problem. Are we turning into a society in which the preventable deaths of many innocent people is the cost we are prepared to accept?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Way too simplistic. Are we willing to accept deaths due to the poverty caused by lockdowns? Are we willing to accept deaths due to people not taking care of other health issues? Are we willing to accept deaths due to the increased rate of suicide? Are we willing to see millions of people in third world countries die from starvation because we are protecting our people to their detriment?

Absolutely. Wash your hands. Social distance. Wear a mask.

But, brushing aside all the consequences of policies that create death to save death is folly.

Markburn1
06-25-2020, 10:44 AM
I'm pessimistic about having a basketball season because there are so many wildly different viewpoints from politicians state to state, conference to conference, etc. Some will insist that the danger is minimal. Some won't want to take the chance of compromising the health of any one athlete. I don't see much will to compromise.

LTownZag
06-25-2020, 10:56 AM
That isn't what the data says. Cases have been going up for several weeks now, yet deaths and hospitalizations have been going down. That's what the charts say.

Can one of you tech wizards post the charts please?

https://i.imgur.com/UXLp0IE.png

Here's the confirmed (lab tests) case count. Cases have been going up for about 2.5 weeks, as Mark says. We've also seen rising percentage of tests being positive in that time (from 4.6 to 5.2%) so we're testing more people and also having more of each batch show COVID infections. Deaths have always lagged new cases by something like 3 weeks. (of those who die, the average number of days they've had COVID is in the 3week range).

Here are deaths, which Mark also correctly notes have been falling. The regularly spaced (weekly) peaks and valleys are due to different reporting/delaying of deaths on the weekends.

https://i.imgur.com/jKArmjp.png


And one graph with USA daily confirmed cases and deaths.

https://i.imgur.com/rdJWS3D.png

The median age of Americans now testing positive is 35. As MDABE has pointed out, the majority of those who die are over 65. So if/as the infected population skews younger than before, the fatality rate will drop.

I would love a good source for overall national hospitalizations, or hospitalizations due to respiratory illness (influenza-like-symptoms). I don't know of one.



Note: this is Florida and not national, so it may not be representative.

Note also: In April we were testing so few people nationally, and generally just far sicker and more symptomatic people, such that the median age for all testing was likely much older than the median age of our current more widespread testing. I couldn't find data on how the median age of all people given a COVID test has changed over time. Which is to say, a large drop in the median age for people positive doesn't necessarily mean the disease truly is currently infecting a younger cohort of the population than 2 months ago. But my (hunch/opinion time) sense is that people over 65yrs old truly are trying to isolate and mask up much more than younger folks, and that the median age of all those infected (not just tested) really has come down enough to mean (I predict) we'll see at least a 30% lower infection fatality rate in July than in April. By August1 we'll know if my prediction is correct.

https://i.imgur.com/0551IDE.png

MDABE80
06-25-2020, 11:09 AM
Markburn says..."isn't it probable that the virus has claimed the most vulnerable and though cases are climbing for various reasons the folks that are being infected are nowhere near the danger of death and hospitalization we saw at peak?

Exactly what's happening Mark. Good call. As the vulnerable people are passing, there's been a move to infect the younger people ( ie under 30 yrs) who seem to be tolerating the disease better. So the death rate is down. But the death rate has been only 2nd to Germany all along. Media is trying to scare the crap out of us, Think of it this way: Influenza generally takes about 80 K lives annually and it's been between that number and 60K for the past 20 years. Who dies? The elderly with comorbid diseases or those who have impaired immunity which is usual in the older set ( 82% of mortality is the over 65 group) . How often have you heard an under 30 death? Not often even though it happens....(Scrooner knows of a 27 yr old who sounds like she's in deep trouble with COVID)...it's unusual though and there always be a few outliers.

Tony says he should have 250 million vaccines ready by mid December. He's usually right on this stuff...…...very conservative in predictions as we've all seen.
I think we'll be fine as thing dwindle. There will be spikes though. Not everywhere but in a few places.

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 11:20 AM
https://i.imgur.com/UXLp0IE.png

Here's the confirmed (lab tests) case count. Cases have been going up for about 2.5 weeks, as Mark says. We've also seen rising percentage of tests being positive in that time (from 4.6 to 5.2%) so we're testing more people and also having more of each batch show COVID infections. Deaths have always lagged new cases by something like 3 weeks. (of those who die, the average number of days they've had COVID is in the 3week range).

Here are deaths, which Mark also correctly notes have been falling. The regularly spaced (weekly) peaks and valleys are due to different reporting/delaying of deaths on the weekends.

https://i.imgur.com/jKArmjp.png


And one graph with USA daily confirmed cases and deaths.

https://i.imgur.com/rdJWS3D.png

The median age of Americans now testing positive is 35. As MDABE has pointed out, the majority of those who die are over 65. So if/as the infected population skews younger than before, the fatality rate will drop.

I would love a good source for overall national hospitalizations, or hospitalizations due to respiratory illness (influenza-like-symptoms). I don't know of one.



Note: this is Florida and not national, so it may not be representative.

Note also: In April we were testing so few people nationally, and generally just far sicker and more symptomatic people, such that the median age for all testing was likely much older than the median age of our current more widespread testing. I couldn't find data on how the median age of all people given a COVID test has changed over time. Which is to say, a large drop in the median age for people positive doesn't necessarily mean the disease truly is currently infecting a younger cohort of the population than 2 months ago. But my (hunch/opinion time) sense is that people over 65yrs old truly are trying to isolate and mask up much more than younger folks, and that the median age of all those infected (not just tested) really has come down enough to mean (I predict) we'll see at least a 30% lower infection fatality rate in July than in April. By August1 we'll know if my prediction is correct.

https://i.imgur.com/0551IDE.png

Just a note, Markburn and I were referring to Washington state data.

scrooner
06-25-2020, 11:28 AM
As it relates to basketball, if one person on a team catches it, the entire team is going to be quarantined for 2 weeks, right? If so, and if anyone on one of the teams we are playing catches it within 2 weeks of us playing them, that game will be cancelled. If anyone on our team catches it, all our games are cancelled for 2 weeks. If a state becomes involved in a travel ban, more games cancelled.

This just creates additional questions:

During this 2 week quarantine, would the team still practice? Would the individual(s) be held out of practices, or would they practice with COVID if they are asymptomatic, and infect others? If someone has debilitating symptoms, what's the recovery period like?

How are WCC standings/National rankings determined if/when teams end up playing significantly fewer games than the teams around them? Or is there a point when individuals or teams just get shut down for the season, while other teams continue on?

LTownZag
06-25-2020, 11:31 AM
Media is trying to scare the crap out of us, Think of it this way: Influenza generally takes about 80 K lives annually and it's been between that number and 60K for the past 20 years.

For the past 20 years flu deaths have averaged 35,000. It's been barely above 60k (it was 61k) 1 year, the worst on record. See column on the right. Data from CDC/Hopkins.

(32.7k from 2001-2010 (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2010/08/26/129456941/annual-flu-death-average-fluctuates-depending-on-how-you-slice-it), and 37k in the last decade (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-10000-across-us-as-world-frets-over-coronavirus.html))
https://i.imgur.com/hKcbte4.png





So the death rate is down. But the death rate has been only 2nd to Germany all along.

What does this sentence mean to you? Are saying that "all along" (so at all times? or currently? or ever?) the USA had the world's second lowest infected fatality rate? 2nd lowest something else? I'm genuinely curious what you are saying you believe about the world here. I'm not disagreeing or presenting contradictory data, just hoping to understand what specifically you think you are saying or intend to be saying.

sylean
06-25-2020, 11:34 AM
quarentine was and is ridiculous for an otherwise healthy populace instead of ASKING vulnerable people to self isolate...the virus wasn't going to go away....even the people with the strictest isolation...nursing homes....got it and many died,behind closed doors, no visitors, extra cleaning, blah blah blah..

no we are not mature.....mature human beings don't believe in fairy tales as in "nothing bad will happen if we just hide".....

I could see lockdown for a couple of weeks while supplies were en massed and plans made....perhaps keeping the hospitals shutdown for a few more weeks to make sure there was room for the mythical "surge"....

but after that, its just insanity....

and how people in the hospitals are facing furloughs because the hospitals are bankrupt....

I agree....we are a very immature society.....

LTownZag
06-25-2020, 11:40 AM
Just a note, Markburn and I were referring to Washington state data.

Gotcha.

Here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/washington/0

WA really has been skating through this with very very few deaths so far. Never yet hit 30/day and under 10/day for the past 4 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/5KHB5FU.png



https://i.imgur.com/wU8EsNj.png

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 11:53 AM
Gotcha.

Here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/washington/0

WA really has been skating through this with very very few deaths so far. Never yet hit 30/day and under 10/day for the past 4 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/5KHB5FU.png



https://i.imgur.com/wU8EsNj.png

Washington has been doing well. My point with Markburn is there was a surge in testing around June 1st (https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard) when contact tracing began in earnest which would explain the rise in cases at that point. The more recent escalation in the last week is more difficult to explain away and I wouldn't expect anyone knows yet for certain if we're heading back toward more hospitalizations and deaths in the next few weeks.

LTownZag
06-25-2020, 12:47 PM
Washington has been doing well. My point with Markburn is there was a surge in testing around June 1st (https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard) when contact tracing began in earnest which would explain the rise in cases at that point. The more recent escalation in the last week is more difficult to explain away and I wouldn't expect anyone knows yet for certain if we're heading back toward more hospitalizations and deaths in the next few weeks.

I haven't been following WA-only stats recently, but I don't see the phenomenon you're describing.

Large surge in testing beginning Monday June8th (and then tracking the weekdays for the past 2 weeks) but no increase (or only a tiny%) increase in positive cases from the week of Jun 8-14 to the week of June 15-21.

https://i.imgur.com/tRk9EMU.png

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 01:08 PM
I haven't been following WA-only stats recently, but I don't see the phenomenon you're describing.

Large surge in testing beginning Monday June8th (and then tracking the weekdays for the past 2 weeks) but no increase (or only a tiny%) increase in positive cases from the week of Jun 8-14 to the week of June 15-21.

https://i.imgur.com/tRk9EMU.png

I was speaking a little less precisely than what you're attempting but it's also important to point out that testing can go up because infections go up, testing can go up because of a change in the protocol of who gets tested such as the implementation of contact tracing, testing can go up because of increased capacity (this is not a clear-cut issue).

There are two fairly distinctive surges in overall testing in WA, one on May 18 and one on June 9th. These two surges taken together, and considering the implementation of contact tracing started in mid-May, may explain a bit of the surge in recorded cases starting in late May, but I don't see how it could be any justification for the surge in cases continuing and getting worse over the last week. It is this most recent surge that concerns me the most and it remains to be seen if there will also be a reversal of what has been a decent trend for hospitalizations and deaths.

MDAbe and Markburn are saying this virus has already reached and killed the majority of people that are vulnerable and there's no concern if cases rise because hospitalizations and deaths are going down and will continue to do so. I'm not sure they're right, but I hope they are.

caduceus
06-25-2020, 02:06 PM
MDAbe and Markburn are saying this virus has already reached and killed the majority of people that are vulnerable and there's no concern if cases rise because hospitalizations and deaths are going down and will continue to do so. I'm not sure they're right, but I hope they are.

I suspect that is a minor contributor, but I very, very much doubt that all the really vulnerable people have been culled from Washington to affect the statistics appreciably. From what I've seen, I suspect there are two larger reasons.

The first is that long-term care facilities, nursing homes and senior living joints are really locked down. Many, if not most, are essentially in quarantine isolation with heavy restrictions on entry, more robust precautions inside, and much more testing of staff and residents (state mandated a while back).

The second reason is what BurgessEra, Esq. expressed in this thread and is smartly practicing himself -- staying home. More older and vulnerable people are sheltering, masking, etc., and they've bettered their routines over time to stay COVID free.

I do expect there are other factors. There's a reason some of these bugs are seasonal, and we know it's not just because of human behavior differences between summer and winter. Sadly, we don't know all the reasons but some are surely environmental. Multiple improvements in healthcare protocols are helping, along with keeping our providers from getting sick and spreading it around hospitals and their homes. More available PPE has contributed to that.

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 02:12 PM
I suspect that is a minor contributor, but I very, very much doubt that all the really vulnerable people have been culled from Washington to affect the statistics appreciably. From what I've seen, I suspect there are two larger reasons.

The first is that long-term care facilities, nursing homes and senior living joints are really locked down. Many, if not most, are essentially in quarantine isolation with heavy restrictions on entry, more robust precautions inside, and much more testing of staff and residents (state mandated a while back).

The second reason is what BurgessEra, Esq. expressed in this thread and is smartly practicing himself -- staying home. More older and vulnerable people are sheltering, masking, etc., and they've bettered their routines over time to stay COVID free.

I do expect there are other factors. There's a reason some of these bugs are seasonal, and we know it's not just because of human behavior differences between summer and winter. Sadly, we don't know all the reasons but some are surely environmental. Multiple improvements in healthcare protocols are helping, along with keeping our providers from getting sick and spreading it around hospitals and their homes. More available PPE has contributed to that.

I agree with all this.

Markburn1
06-25-2020, 02:14 PM
I suspect that is a minor contributor, but I very, very much doubt that all the really vulnerable people have been culled from Washington to affect the statistics appreciably. From what I've seen, I suspect there are two larger reasons.

The first is that long-term care facilities, nursing homes and senior living joints are really locked down. Many, if not most, are essentially in quarantine isolation with heavy restrictions on entry, more robust precautions inside, and much more testing of staff and residents (state mandated a while back).

The second reason is what BurgessEra, Esq. expressed in this thread and is smartly practicing himself -- staying home. More older and vulnerable people are sheltering, masking, etc., and they've bettered their routines over time to stay COVID free.

I do expect there are other factors. There's a reason some of these bugs are seasonal, and we know it's not just because of human behavior differences between summer and winter. Sadly, we don't know all the reasons but some are surely environmental. Multiple improvements in healthcare protocols are helping, along with keeping our providers from getting sick and spreading it around hospitals and their homes. More available PPE has contributed to that.

Which has been my contention from day one. If we had focused on the most vulnerable in the beginning the numbers of deaths and hospitalizations would have been reduced to a degree. I suspect it would have been a huge mitigating factor. Instead we shut down the entire country and we will pay for it in lives and a diminishing quality of life for years to come.

caduceus
06-25-2020, 02:24 PM
Wouldn't you say this chart is misleading? I see these # of cases charts almost universally. What you don't see on a consistent basis are the charts that show hospitalizations and deaths.


No, not misleading. I was talking about cases in response to it being mentioned that they were falling. The graph is accurate for its intended purpose. That's all.

Death numbers are widely available (although recent news accounts seem to suggest that some states are fudging their numbers -- intentionally or unintentionally -- regarding cause of death. I dunno anything about that).

Hospitalizations are a a bit trickier, since every state reports them differently, not to mention that initial diagnoses when someone is admitted is not always specific enough, or may change. For example, one might be admitted with shortness of breath, but discharged with something like "myocardial infarction."

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 02:27 PM
Which has been my contention from day one. If we had focused on the most vulnerable in the beginning the numbers of deaths and hospitalizations would have been reduced to a degree. I suspect it would have been a huge mitigating factor. Instead we shut down the entire country and we will pay for it in lives and a diminishing quality of life for years to come.

Focusing on the most vulnerable began when a bunch of people died at that facility in Bellevue. It doesn't get much earlier than that.

JPtheBeasta
06-25-2020, 02:34 PM
Focusing on the most vulnerable began when a bunch of people died at that facility in Bellevue. It doesn't get much earlier than that.

It seems to me that this was not really the case because in New York, and I believe elsewhere, persons recovering from Covid were placed in nursing homes after hospital discharge. Is this a contended data point or one that is universally agreed upon?

LTownZag
06-25-2020, 02:35 PM
No, not misleading. I was talking about cases in response to it being mentioned that they were falling. The graph is accurate for its intended purpose. That's all.

Death numbers are widely available (although recent news accounts seem to suggest that some states are fudging their numbers -- intentionally or unintentionally -- regarding cause of death. I dunno anything about that).

Hospitalizations are a a bit trickier, since every state reports them differently, not to mention that initial diagnoses when someone is admitted is not always specific enough, or may change. For example, one might be admitted with shortness of breath, but discharged with something like "myocardial infarction."

Big and important difference between "misleading" and "not measuring the thing I want to see measured".

I think the comparisons of total deaths or total confirmed cases per country are examples of this. They are accurate and not misleading, but the same comparison graphs adjusted for population size are generally more of what I (and I think most people) want measured when comparing the severity of the outbreak. The USA, for example, has almost as many people as the entire EU. If one wants to look at the scale of tragedy of the deaths from "X", look at deaths per-capita, or at least compare places with similar populations (California vs Spain, or the USA vs the EU).

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 02:40 PM
It seems to me that this was not really the case because in New York, and I believe elsewhere, persons recovering from Covid were placed in nursing homes after hospital discharge. Is this a contended data point or one that is universally agreed upon?

Mar 2 https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/02/811276257/coronavirus-cluster-near-seattle-highlights-vulnerability-of-nursing-homes

Mar 10 https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/gov-jay-inslee-coronavirus-policies-washington/281-4b24d174-eb6f-4c4c-9fab-0a1e476f83d6

Mar 10 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes-washington-seattle.html

Mar 10 https://www.twincities.com/2020/03/10/minnesota-nursing-homes-begin-to-restrict-and-ban-visitors-over-coronavirus/

Mar 10 https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/10/metro/long-term-care-facilities-move-restrict-visits-family-members/

Mar 11 https://time.com/5799096/coronavirus-nursing-homes-elderly/

If the contention is that people didn't recognize the risk to the elderly and infirm right away and implement restrictions on nursing homes right away, that is simply not the case.

LTownZag
06-25-2020, 02:48 PM
Markburn says..."isn't it probable that the virus has claimed the most vulnerable and though cases are climbing for various reasons the folks that are being infected are nowhere near the danger of death and hospitalization we saw at peak?

Exactly what's happening Mark. Good call.

Around 70,000 Americans over 70yrs old have died of COVID.
Let's say another 10x that number were infected and survived.

That totals .77million people.

Let's then just then double that total, for the sake of argument, in case either death or infection has been massively higher than is known.

That extremely high estimate would be ~1.7 million Americans over 70 already killed or infected.

Such a total would represent just 5% of the 36million americans over 70. (https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2020/)

Markburn1
06-25-2020, 03:02 PM
Mar 2 https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/02/811276257/coronavirus-cluster-near-seattle-highlights-vulnerability-of-nursing-homes

Mar 10 https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/gov-jay-inslee-coronavirus-policies-washington/281-4b24d174-eb6f-4c4c-9fab-0a1e476f83d6

Mar 10 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes-washington-seattle.html

Mar 10 https://www.twincities.com/2020/03/10/minnesota-nursing-homes-begin-to-restrict-and-ban-visitors-over-coronavirus/

Mar 10 https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/10/metro/long-term-care-facilities-move-restrict-visits-family-members/

Mar 11 https://time.com/5799096/coronavirus-nursing-homes-elderly/

If the contention is that people didn't recognize the risk to the elderly and infirm right away and implement restrictions on nursing homes right away, that is simply not the case.

Every one of your links described visitors being allowed into these nursing homes. Guidelines may or may not have been followed. They were just that, guidelines. The fear of a massive spread was there but the actual reality on the ground didn't reflect what the CDC and nursing home executives were suggesting. And there were some states, most notably New York, that took the insane approach to put infected people back into these facilities when released from the hospital.

My mother is in an assisted living home. There was a decided lack of concern there and they didn't even have a plan until well after the spread of the virus was significant. They were lucky. Everything is locked down now and no visitors are allowed. They have zero infections. Once again, lucky.

caduceus
06-25-2020, 03:07 PM
Which has been my contention from day one. If we had focused on the most vulnerable in the beginning the numbers of deaths and hospitalizations would have been reduced to a degree. I suspect it would have been a huge mitigating factor. Instead we shut down the entire country and we will pay for it in lives and a diminishing quality of life for years to come.

Seems like common sense, doesn't it? The problem is it's much more complicated than that. Firstly, the knowledge we have now is way better than what we knew then, particularly in Washington (since we were the early epicenter). We didn't know anything about nursing facilities being particularly vulnerable until it was too late. By then, community transmission was widespread. Secondly, we had zero tests early on, and thus zero idea where the virus was or how prevalent. It took 3 weeks for the Feds to fix the testing kit, and they actually barred UW virology from using their own, AND they barred the Seattle Flu Study program at FHCRC (Fred Hutch) from testing for COVID in their samples from January. Thankfully, FHCRC ignored them and we very luckily found out the virus was here much earlier, and spreading in the community. I digress...

If the public had been told, as soon as we knew the size and scope of things, that everybody over 60 had to self-isolate for the foreseeable future, how do you think that would have gone over? Then you have elder care facilities (which are always, always underfunded -- even the good ones) needing PPE and isolation equipment, more sanitizer, etc. These things take weeks to implement (and longer when every other facility is competing for the same stuff -- just like the toilet paper run). By the time you get your act together, it's already spreading like wildfire.

There are many other reasons, but my fingers are tiring. But, probably the greatest reason this is difficult to implement is that it's near impossible to lock down this age group like that while you let it spread rampantly through the rest of the population. I constantly hear this argument, but never, ever from epidemiologists (except that one idiot from Sweden, who has since apologized and admitted it was a huge miscalculation that cost thousands of lives). Yes, they recommend the vulnerable take added precautions. But, you cannot seal away only the elderly/vulnerable from society and have any success whatsoever.

I'm sorry, but that's just the way it is. The press and others should drop this argument as they are making the problem worse in doing so. The shut down would have been effective had we not opened up early without enough testing and tracing in place. Now we're in the second verse, but worse than the first.

You don't take off your parachute mid-air just because it's slowed your fall.

caduceus
06-25-2020, 03:16 PM
Focusing on the most vulnerable began when a bunch of people died at that facility in Bellevue. It doesn't get much earlier than that.

Kirkland, but you are correct. By then it was already too late.

Markburn1
06-25-2020, 04:05 PM
Focusing on the most vulnerable began when a bunch of people died at that facility in Bellevue. It doesn't get much earlier than that.

We knew from the beginning from data from Italy and China that age and comorbidities were where the increased danger was. Deaths of the elderly and the sick with the virus were orders of magnitude higher than younger, healthier people. We knew all the way back to January and February. The Kirkland outbreak was much later in the timeline.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21173783/coronavirus-death-age-covid-19-elderly-seniors

JPtheBeasta
06-25-2020, 04:29 PM
We knew very early from the Italy data that the elderly and those with multiple comorbidities were being hit the hardest. It seems like it should have been common sense to keep these patients away from the elderly in nursing homes. Per the New York Times, 1/3 of deaths are nursing residents or workers despite representing 153,000 total cases (the cases have gone up; article updated May 11, 2020). This was a truly fatal error. USA Today put that number at closer to 40% of all deaths.

MDABE80
06-25-2020, 04:34 PM
I suspect that is a minor contributor, but I very, very much doubt that all the really vulnerable people have been culled from Washington to affect the statistics appreciably. From what I've seen, I suspect there are two larger reasons.

The first is that long-term care facilities, nursing homes and senior living joints are really locked down. Many, if not most, are essentially in quarantine isolation with heavy restrictions on entry, more robust precautions inside, and much more testing of staff and residents (state mandated a while back).

The second reason is what BurgessEra, Esq. expressed in this thread and is smartly practicing himself -- staying home. More older and vulnerable people are sheltering, masking, etc., and they've bettered their routines over time to stay COVID free.

I do expect there are other factors. There's a reason some of these bugs are seasonal, and we know it's not just because of human behavior differences between summer and winter. Sadly, we don't know all the reasons but some are surely environmental. Multiple improvements in healthcare protocols are helping, along with keeping our providers from getting sick and spreading it around hospitals and their homes. More available PPE has contributed to that.

I. Never said ALL. Nobody in science say ALL . You know that;)

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 04:43 PM
We knew from the beginning from data from Italy and China that age and comorbidities were where the increased danger was. Deaths of the elderly and the sick with the virus were orders of magnitude higher than younger, healthier people. We knew all the way back to January and February. The Kirkland outbreak was much later in the timeline.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21173783/coronavirus-death-age-covid-19-elderly-seniors

My point is in the earliest moments when we were having discussions about taking measures of any kind, those discussions involved consideration of the impact on the elderly. I'm not going to argue whether or not more could have been done to be more effective in this regard, but as Caduceus stated, protection of the vulnerable wasn't something we could have done effectively instead of the lockdown, since at that point the overall level of spread was unknown.

sonuvazag
06-25-2020, 04:54 PM
I. Never said ALL. Nobody in science say ALL . You know that;)

I hope I didn't mischaracterize your argument when I said you believe "a majority" have been culled. I feel like I understand what you're trying to say, and I do hope you're right, even if it seems implausible, at least for most parts of the country.

zagfan24
06-25-2020, 04:58 PM
Seems like common sense, doesn't it? The problem is it's much more complicated than that. .... But, you cannot seal away only the elderly/vulnerable from society and have any success whatsoever.

I'm sorry, but that's just the way it is. The press and others should drop this argument as they are making the problem worse in doing so. The shut down would have been effective had we not opened up early without enough testing and tracing in place. Now we're in the second verse, but worse than the first.


Thank you. I've never heard this argument fully fleshed out. If you just isolate the "elderly and vulnerable" you first have to define those groups. What age are we talking about? Does this include obesity? Chronic illness? Pediatric illness? Can a pediatric oncologist go to the grocery store? Can her kids go to school? Can a care partner from a nursing home be around his family? His grandparents?

The other argument that people keep bringing up without statistical basis is herd immunity. I listened to an enlightening interview with a few experts on this topic, and to paraphrase from memory, it would take about 70% exposure in the population which almost necessitates having a vaccine. The idea of no lock down being akin to herd immunity just isn't that simple.

Finally, people grossly underestimate the impact of the PPE shortage on all of this. Above, sylean says:

no we are not mature.....mature human beings don't believe in fairy tales as in "nothing bad will happen if we just hide"..... and how people in the hospitals are facing furloughs because the hospitals are bankrupt....


First, that's a complete strawman. The lock down efforts were not about hiding out of fear. More importantly, a major factor behind flattening the curve AND hospital financial ruin was the PPE shortage. The fact that Wuhan was a major manufacturing center, combined with a depleted stockpile, combined with a poor initial response...left hospitals unable to go on with non-urgent ("elective" is often a misnomer) procedures which created a huge revenue shortfall. The PPE shortage continues to be a huge issue in our hospital and I'm sure almost everywhere. We are wearing one N95 mask for as long as possible right now...then having it cleaned until it's not wearable. It's a pretty sad state of affairs.

caduceus
06-25-2020, 06:20 PM
I. Never said ALL. Nobody in science say ALL . You know that;)

Hah. You also know that when I said all, I didn't mean ALL! :cheers:

Zagceo
06-25-2020, 06:41 PM
Seems like common sense, doesn't it? The problem is it's much more complicated than that. Firstly, the knowledge we have now is way better than what we knew then, particularly in Washington (since we were the early epicenter). We didn't know anything about nursing facilities being particularly vulnerable until it was too late. By then, community transmission was widespread. Secondly, we had zero tests early on, and thus zero idea where the virus was or how prevalent. It took 3 weeks for the Feds to fix the testing kit, and they actually barred UW virology from using their own, AND they barred the Seattle Flu Study program at FHCRC (Fred Hutch) from testing for COVID in their samples from January. Thankfully, FHCRC ignored them and we very luckily found out the virus was here much earlier, and spreading in the community. I digress...

If the public had been told, as soon as we knew the size and scope of things, that everybody over 60 had to self-isolate for the foreseeable future, how do you think that would have gone over? Then you have elder care facilities (which are always, always underfunded -- even the good ones) needing PPE and isolation equipment, more sanitizer, etc. These things take weeks to implement (and longer when every other facility is competing for the same stuff -- just like the toilet paper run). By the time you get your act together, it's already spreading like wildfire.

There are many other reasons, but my fingers are tiring. But, probably the greatest reason this is difficult to implement is that it's near impossible to lock down this age group like that while you let it spread rampantly through the rest of the population. I constantly hear this argument, but never, ever from epidemiologists (except that one idiot from Sweden, who has since apologized and admitted it was a huge miscalculation that cost thousands of lives). Yes, they recommend the vulnerable take added precautions. But, you cannot seal away only the elderly/vulnerable from society and have any success whatsoever.

I'm sorry, but that's just the way it is. The press and others should drop this argument as they are making the problem worse in doing so. The shut down would have been effective had we not opened up early without enough testing and tracing in place. Now we're in the second verse, but worse than the first.

You don't take off your parachute mid-air just because it's slowed your fall.

Havenít elderly always suffered heavy consequences from viruses in the past?

caduceus
06-25-2020, 06:45 PM
Thank you. I've never heard this argument fully fleshed out. If you just isolate the "elderly and vulnerable" you first have to define those groups. What age are we talking about? Does this include obesity? Chronic illness? Pediatric illness? Can a pediatric oncologist go to the grocery store? Can her kids go to school? Can a care partner from a nursing home be around his family? His grandparents?

The other argument that people keep bringing up without statistical basis is herd immunity. I listened to an enlightening interview with a few experts on this topic, and to paraphrase from memory, it would take about 70% exposure in the population which almost necessitates having a vaccine. The idea of no lock down being akin to herd immunity just isn't that simple.

Finally, people grossly underestimate the impact of the PPE shortage on all of this. Above, sylean says:

no we are not mature.....mature human beings don't believe in fairy tales as in "nothing bad will happen if we just hide"..... and how people in the hospitals are facing furloughs because the hospitals are bankrupt....


First, that's a complete strawman. The lock down efforts were not about hiding out of fear. More importantly, a major factor behind flattening the curve AND hospital financial ruin was the PPE shortage. The fact that Wuhan was a major manufacturing center, combined with a depleted stockpile, combined with a poor initial response...left hospitals unable to go on with non-urgent ("elective" is often a misnomer) procedures which created a huge revenue shortfall. The PPE shortage continues to be a huge issue in our hospital and I'm sure almost everywhere. We are wearing one N95 mask for as long as possible right now...then having it cleaned until it's not wearable. It's a pretty sad state of affairs.

Great post, insightful. Thanks for adding.

Your point about herd immunity is spot on. I mentioned earlier that it might take years (without vaccine), or never if antibody protection doesn't last long.

One thing I'll add (since it relates to college basketball). There's a huge difference between having uber-wealthy pro leagues starting up sports and student athletes. I fear the complexities of the situation will deter the NCAA from sorting all that out into a meaningful return to competition. There are parent issues, travel issues, facility issues, referees and other staff issues. PPD. Sanitizing. Practice procedures. It's an enormous hairball of complexity. We need a damn vaccine.

caduceus
06-25-2020, 06:52 PM
Haven’t elderly always suffered heavy consequences from viruses in the past?

Sure. Vaccines are a great way to make it manageable. We ain't got one this time, and it's on the higher end of contagousness.

Interestingly, the H1N1 pandemic of 1918 (Spanish flu) killed 20-29 year-olds in the greatest numbers. If nCov19 had done that instead of to the elderly, I really wonder how 2020 would have played out.

JPtheBeasta
06-25-2020, 07:29 PM
NPR recently referenced a New Yorker article which found only 2 cases of child-to-parent transmission of COVID-19 in Iceland, where “extensive contact tracing” was done.

The web article is titled What Parents Can Learn From Child Care Centers That Stayed Open During Lockdowns.

JPtheBeasta
06-25-2020, 08:03 PM
The number needed to achieve herd immunity depends on the reproduction number (R-value (R-naught, R-[underscore 0])

The formula is susceptible persons < 1/Ro (ie immune persons >( 1- 1/Ro ))

If the R value is 3, we need >67% of persons that are not susceptible (is are immune)
to infection to protect the rest.

If the R value is 2, we need 50%

If the R value is 1, the disease sticks around but doesn’t grow.

If R value is less than 1, we don’t need to worry about herd immunity because 1 person will infect less than one person on average and it will fizzle out on it’s own.



The R value can be lowered by measures to slow the spread, such as avoiding other persons or wearing a mask. COVID-19-projections.com/infections-tracker has a graph of the initial R -values versus the R-values after mitigation measures. R values are different for different populations, as seen with children, who don’t transmit the disease easily. The R value currently in many places is under 1 or very close to one. It was reassuring to me to learn that R values can change because I have seen so many different estimates for the R-value.



Any expert who throws out one number for herd immunity is oversimplifying the calculus, is not being forthcoming about assumptions, or has an agenda and is trying to mislead people.

zagfan24
06-25-2020, 08:22 PM
The number needed to achieve herd immunity depends on the reproduction number (R-value (R-naught, R-[underscore 0])

If the R value is 3, we need >77% of persons that are not susceptible to infection To protect the rest

If the R value is 2, we need 50%

If the R value is 1, the disease sticks around but doesn’t grow.

If R value is less than 1, we don’t need to worry about herd immunity because 1 person will infect less than one person on average and it will fizzle out on it’s own.



The R value can be lowered by measures to slow the spread, such as avoiding other persons or wearing a mask. COVID-19-projections.com/infections-tracker has a graph of the initial R -values versus the R-values after mitigation measures. R values are different for different populations, as seen with children, who don’t transmit the disease easily. The R value currently in many places is under 1 or very close to one. It was reassuring to me to learn that R values can change because I have seen so many different estimates for the R-value.



Any expert who throws out one number for herd immunity is oversimplifying the calculus, is not being forthcoming about assumptions, or has an agenda and is trying to mislead people.

Thanks for the info JP. I should note that the physician and scientist I listened to were specifically estimating a herd immunity % for Covid based on their best estimate of the R value without precautions. Your additional info is helpful in adding context to this. The point seems to be more clearly that herd immunity without a vaccine or significant social precautions is quite unlikely with COVID-19.

JPtheBeasta
06-25-2020, 08:37 PM
Thanks for the info JP. I should note that the physician and scientist I listened to were specifically estimating a herd immunity % for Covid based on their best estimate of the R value without precautions. Your additional info is helpful in adding context to this. The point seems to be more clearly that herd immunity without a vaccine or significant social precautions is quite unlikely with COVID-19.

My disclaimer is that I am learning a lot of this on the fly with the rest of the armchair epidemiologists out there and reserve the right to be wrong on the math or missing nuances of the calculations. I thought the above would be interesting to share, at least.

LTownZag
06-25-2020, 08:59 PM
FWIW I’ve read and understand the same as you regarding the strong direct relationship between Rvalue and herd immunity critical levels.

caduceus
06-25-2020, 09:33 PM
My disclaimer is that I am learning a lot of this on the fly with the rest of the armchair epidemiologists out there and reserve the right to be wrong on the math or missing nuances of the calculations. I thought the above would be interesting to share, at least.

It was a good post. The only clarification I would make is that R0 (nought) doesn't change over time. It's the reproductive number when all people are susceptible, i.e., at the start of an outbreak. The (simplified) formula to calculate how many in the population (%) need to acquire immunity to achieve herd immunity (either by infection or immunization) is 1-1/R0 .. Edit: I just noticed you mentioned the formula. Missed it the first time around.

The effective reproductive number (Re, also written as Rt) is realtime and is what changes over time (due to the things you mentioned).

A very good site to see the state by state breakdowns of Rt is https://rt.live. Just like real time RPI, but for pandemics!


Never in my wildest thoughts did I ever think these esoteric epidemiological terms would become commonplace discussion topics. Yet here we are.

MDABE80
06-26-2020, 12:30 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1MLfoTnZcR-_IDpwsBxGxKyZQ8Es7FIWdN_p0q--VFzahMIBejdBBXz5o

THis is worth reading but partially explains the dissonance in data presented by different sources. CDC is often criticized as to their accuracy by me for the past several months. SOme of this explains why. Also though the CDC has become politically infested mor so since the last administration. Everything with a grain of salt......

Rangerzag
06-26-2020, 07:05 AM
This article describes the complications for Kansas State football's team getting workouts and practices started.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/sports/ncaafootball/college-football-coronavirus-cases.html

DZ
06-26-2020, 07:28 AM
Cad, I have gotten more solid distilled info from your posts than any other one-spot shop. Thanks, I know they take a ton of time.

In the Sun-belt, we're getting hammered. My state hit a new record yesterday and it was near double the previous record, hospital space is almost gone and our state director of public health said we could look like NYC if things don't turn very quickly. Houston is likely worse.

The newest on vaccine development is highly promising, lots of reasons for optimism. But anyone who thinks a vaccine is going to have an impact prior to the end of the year is just dreaming things away, which is how we got to this point in the first place and why the world has literally passed us by. Link (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-06-25/promising-results-mean-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-could-start-by-august):


The Duke team emphasized that any expectation for a vaccine by the end of this year is overly optimistic.

"I think it's entirely possible that a vaccine will be approved this year, but not at scale," Ridley explained. "We might have some people vaccinated this year, but the average person won't be vaccinated."

Denny added, "We may have some good science by the end of the year and think we have some leading candidates. But manufacturing them to have it all administered, that's a tall order to be ready by the beginning of 2021."

I think that if everyone does the right thing and we all work together, we may start "getting out of this" late next spring and summer, hopefully with less than 250,000 dead. That appears to me to be "the best case scenario," given that we've blown the best chance we had.

Thanks, Cad.

Zaglaw
06-26-2020, 08:16 AM
Sylean - clearly you are unhappy about the stay-at-home orders. But, your post ignores the fact that death is not the only bad consequence of this disease. Younger people who have contracted the disease have developed lung and other problems that will plague them for the rest of their life. There is a related syndrome being found in children that causes significant health issues. I understand the economic arguments about the stay-at-home orders, but think about the economic impact of coming out of Covid-19 with a health-impaired population.

Sometimes we have to look at the greater good, not just our self-serving wants, and do something that is unselfish. In my opinion, staying home as much as possible, washing hands thoroughly, and wearing a mask when you are out are those unselfish somethings right now.

LTownZag
06-26-2020, 08:58 AM
It was a good post. The only clarification I would make is that R0 (nought) doesn't change over time. It's the reproductive number when all people are susceptible, i.e., at the start of an outbreak. The (simplified) formula to calculate how many in the population (%) need to acquire immunity to achieve herd immunity (either by infection or immunization) is 1-1/R0 .. Edit: I just noticed you mentioned the formula. Missed it the first time around.

The effective reproductive number (Re, also written as Rt) is realtime and is what changes over time (due to the things you mentioned).

A very good site to see the state by state breakdowns of Rt is https://rt.live. Just like real time RPI, but for pandemics!


Never in my wildest thoughts did I ever think these esoteric epidemiological terms would become commonplace discussion topics. Yet here we are.


Cad,

Is the R-0 generally given as a specific number or narrow range everywhere in the world for a novel pandemic?

Or is it localized based on population density, mass transit use, weather, habits (masks tolerance) etc?

I know those things would impact the R-e, but isn’t the reproductive number when all people are susceptible (R-0) still largely a function of human behavior or natural environment? Even what month it is? Is R-0 determined via an average of some of these factors?

caduceus
06-26-2020, 10:04 AM
Cad, I have gotten more solid distilled info from your posts than any other one-spot shop. Thanks, I know they take a ton of time.

In the Sun-belt, we're getting hammered. My state hit a new record yesterday and it was near double the previous record, hospital space is almost gone and our state director of public health said we could look like NYC if things don't turn very quickly. Houston is likely worse.

The newest on vaccine development is highly promising, lots of reasons for optimism. But anyone who thinks a vaccine is going to have an impact prior to the end of the year is just dreaming things away, which is how we got to this point in the first place and why the world has literally passed us by. Link (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-06-25/promising-results-mean-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-could-start-by-august):



I think that if everyone does the right thing and we all work together, we may start "getting out of this" late next spring and summer, hopefully with less than 250,000 dead. That appears to me to be "the best case scenario," given that we've blown the best chance we had.

Thanks, Cad.

Hi Dix (changed username?),

Sorry to hear that you are now in the eye of the storm. I see that Texas is now reversing course and implementing some (far overdue but weak sauce) measures again. Florida seems to be going for the record. I've been watching the incidence curves, and it's looking ugly for several states. It's distressing. Pandemics generally follow a logistic curve (cases go up linearly for a while, but when you reach a certain threshold, watch out because things go exponential and start doubling very quickly). Outside of mandatory masking and going back to lockdown, I don't see much else that can be done at this point. Sigh. Masks are cheap and easy. Lockdown is not.

The vaccine issue has been an interesting one. I've been amazed that there are clinical trials now in phase III (testing for efficacy with large numbers of subjects). Normally that takes years. I agree that having a safe and effective vaccine, and enough doses to make a dent, ready by the end of the year is probably a pipe dream. Oxford has been saying September for theirs. That would be herculean, but obviously welcome if true.

Ironically, I've wondered if our savior might actually come from the place where it all started -- China. They've been known to move mountains within their society (not always with good ethical standards). Coupled with their massive manufacturing capability, it wouldn't surprise me if a fast(ish)-tracked vaccine came out of there. We'll see.

Stay safe.

caduceus
06-26-2020, 10:10 AM
Cad,

Is the R-0 generally given as a specific number or narrow range everywhere in the world for a novel pandemic?

Or is it localized based on population density, mass transit use, weather, habits (masks tolerance) etc?

I know those things would impact the R-e, but isnít the reproductive number when all people are susceptible (R-0) still largely a function of human behavior or natural environment? Even what month it is? Is R-0 determined via an average of some of these factors?

It's regional, and yes, depends on conditions on the ground and in society in that locale. I don't know about seasonality although I would assume not, since that adds a time factor to the calculation. As far as I know, initial R0 calculations involve some modeling and pretty complex math. I'm not an expert in that department.

MDABE80
06-26-2020, 10:56 AM
It's regional, and yes, depends on conditions on the ground and in society in that locale. I don't know about seasonality although I would assume not, since that adds a time factor to the calculation. As far as I know, initial R0 calculations involve some modeling and pretty complex math. I'm not an expert in that department.

Need mulitfactor stepwise descriminant analysis to weight the importance of each of multiple factors. That is coming from the math/statistics dept..

Markburn1
06-26-2020, 12:36 PM
Hi Dix (changed username?),

Sorry to hear that you are now in the eye of the storm. I see that Texas is now reversing course and implementing some (far overdue but weak sauce) measures again. Florida seems to be going for the record. I've been watching the incidence curves, and it's looking ugly for several states. It's distressing. Pandemics generally follow a logistic curve (cases go up linearly for a while, but when you reach a certain threshold, watch out because things go exponential and start doubling very quickly). Outside of mandatory masking and going back to lockdown, I don't see much else that can be done at this point. Sigh. Masks are cheap and easy. Lockdown is not.

The vaccine issue has been an interesting one. I've been amazed that there are clinical trials now in phase III (testing for efficacy with large numbers of subjects). Normally that takes years. I agree that having a safe and effective vaccine, and enough doses to make a dent, ready by the end of the year is probably a pipe dream. Oxford has been saying September for theirs. That would be herculean, but obviously welcome if true.

Ironically, I've wondered if our savior might actually come from the place where it all started -- China. They've been known to move mountains within their society (not always with good ethical standards). Coupled with their massive manufacturing capability, it wouldn't surprise me if a fast(ish)-tracked vaccine came out of there. We'll see.

Stay safe.

Trusting China doesn't seem to be a very good evolutionary strategy.

They lied from the beginning. Tried to cover it up by disappearing people trying to warn the world, produced testing kits that routinely gave false readings, sent PPE around the world that was substandard, etc.

If they come up with a vaccine, I wouldn't want to be the lab rat they tested it on.

hockeyzag
06-26-2020, 12:41 PM
Ain't gonna be no 2020-2021 season y'all. Better get used to that idea now.

LTownZag
06-26-2020, 01:15 PM
Ain't gonna be no 2020-2021 season y'all. Better get used to that idea now.

I do think some COVID-controlled countries (Australia /NZ , China?) may see some current Zags playing professionally in lieu of sitting in domestic quarantine.

Bogozags
06-26-2020, 01:45 PM
Cad, I have gotten more solid distilled info from your posts than any other one-spot shop. Thanks, I know they take a ton of time.

In the Sun-belt, we're getting hammered. My state hit a new record yesterday and it was near double the previous record, hospital space is almost gone and our state director of public health said we could look like NYC if things don't turn very quickly. Houston is likely worse.

The newest on vaccine development is highly promising, lots of reasons for optimism. But anyone who thinks a vaccine is going to have an impact prior to the end of the year is just dreaming things away, which is how we got to this point in the first place and why the world has literally passed us by. Link (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-06-25/promising-results-mean-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-could-start-by-august):



I think that if everyone does the right thing and we all work together, we may start "getting out of this" late next spring and summer, hopefully with less than 250,000 dead. That appears to me to be "the best case scenario," given that we've blown the best chance we had.

Thanks, Cad.

Cad I also wanted to thank you for all the time and effort you have put into enlightening us about COVID19. As Dixie stated, you spend an enormous amount of time explaining your knowledge...THANKS!!!

Dixie,

I just finished listening to the Governor of South Carolina explain why he can't mandate people to where face masks/coverings and he said it isn't enforceable...

Italy and Spain had the highest death rates...around 18-20% are figures that come to mind; however, their governments came out strongly about staying home, wearing face masks/coverings and social distancing. Both of those countries have somewhat "recovered" from this contagion and are resuming normal activities.

People in this country do not want to work together to over come this common goal of curtailing this virus. We all should know there is no "I" in the word TEAM but there are just so many people here that are worried about their individual rights and not concerned about the rights of All...Our "leaders" spout how they are limiting testing and don't even want to include the wearing of face masks/coverings as a priority. Without solid leadership, how can this country unite to "fight" the virus...This isn't about politics but rather the health of our countrymen...




It is very sad but I am believing hockeyzag might be right in that we won't have a season this coming year.

People are just so selfish...How did Jesus phrase that commandment: "Love your neighbor as yourself!"

Bouldin4Prez
06-26-2020, 02:47 PM
Cad, I have gotten more solid distilled info from your posts than any other one-spot shop. Thanks, I know they take a ton of time.

In the Sun-belt, we're getting hammered. My state hit a new record yesterday and it was near double the previous record, hospital space is almost gone and our state director of public health said we could look like NYC if things don't turn very quickly. Houston is likely worse.

The newest on vaccine development is highly promising, lots of reasons for optimism. But anyone who thinks a vaccine is going to have an impact prior to the end of the year is just dreaming things away, which is how we got to this point in the first place and why the world has literally passed us by. Link (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-06-25/promising-results-mean-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-could-start-by-august):



I think that if everyone does the right thing and we all work together, we may start "getting out of this" late next spring and summer, hopefully with less than 250,000 dead. That appears to me to be "the best case scenario," given that we've blown the best chance we had.

Thanks, Cad.

Cad, I would like to thank you as well. Really appreciate the info and thought processes that go into navigating such a difficult situation.

Bogozags
06-26-2020, 03:10 PM
Cad I also wanted to thank you for all the time and effort you have put into enlightening us about COVID19. As Dixie stated, you spend an enormous amount of time explaining your knowledge...THANKS!!!

Dixie,

I just finished listening to the Governor of South Carolina explain why he can't mandate people to where face masks/coverings and he said it isn't enforceable...

Italy and Spain had the highest death rates...around 18-20% are figures that come to mind; however, their governments came out strongly about staying home, wearing face masks/coverings and social distancing. Both of those countries have somewhat "recovered" from this contagion and are resuming normal activities.

People in this country do not want to work together to over come this common goal of curtailing this virus. We all should know there is no "I" in the word TEAM but there are just so many people here that are worried about their individual rights and not concerned about the rights of All...Our "leaders" spout how they are limiting testing and don't even want to include the wearing of face masks/coverings as a priority. Without solid leadership, how can this country unite to "fight" the virus...This isn't about politics but rather the health of our countrymen...




It is very sad but I am believing hockeyzag might be right in that we won't have a season this coming year.

People are just so selfish...How did Jesus phrase that commandment: "Love your neighbor as yourself!"


I ask the question, ďAm I the only one on this board that thinks like I do or is it you feel Iím a nut?

I ask because there are never any comments regarding my posts...

willandi
06-26-2020, 03:29 PM
I ask the question, “Am I the only one on this board that thinks like I do or is it you feel I’m a nut?

I ask because there are never any comments regarding my posts...

Nor mine. I just guess that I am too radical, even though my idea would work.

caduceus
06-26-2020, 08:31 PM
New cases today:

USA: 47,341

Canada: 172

Unreal.

caduceus
06-26-2020, 09:44 PM
Excellent, science-based article (but an easy read) from National Geographic about where we are, and what we need to do:

NatGeo: Here's How to Stop the Virus from Winning (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/06/how-to-stop-coronavirus-surges-from-winning-the-war-cvd/)

MDABE80
06-26-2020, 11:48 PM
Dunno about the science based but it does give a nice overview of common sense things we knew from the beginning but have ralexed on. I get the sense from the data I see daily, that because the DX was insecure from the beginning, we may have to start over using the propertesting. Trouble is, the first test were sent to us ( we actually paid for this!!) was from China. THe testing of the test kits shows a very low sensitivity and specificity.

Soldier on we did though with masks, home, distancing.and it seemed make things better. But how did we know things were "better" when the test were suboptimal...? Nobody knows.

There is a long way to go with this disease unless America buckles down and renews its efforts. HARDCORE.

Even then we can't know where we are except we're in the middle of a storm not of our making. Cad do the newer tests have an improved verifiable increases sensitivity and specificity with an increased predicitive value? Some are still swab and some are serologic. Until our tests are much better, best therapies are hard to define. We still don't know what's best or even better.

Given the uncertainties listed in this post, I think it's hard to assign any blame to this administration.this is an infection that was smuggled in and was lied about.
In my own experience, pts who died, oftentimes were assigned a COVID diagnosis but without testing. I've told the story about one of my janitors who lost his father a few weeks about. 75 yr old ukrainian man who had heart failure with some renal failure as well. He died .and when the son asked , he was told COVID got him. But review of the chart has no testing that might confirm the DX. We now know NYC deaths in the nursing homes often did the same thing..

So for me it's remains a head scratcher. We know the pronicples of defense. But the assurity of DX is still less than certain. For all of you, Mick Mick, a longtime poster just dropped a gem on the BZ basketball board. I hope you'll read it.

caduceus
06-27-2020, 05:34 AM
First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

Best, =cad=

hockeyzag
06-27-2020, 08:27 AM
First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

Best, =cad=

Couldn’t agree more, with all of this. This thread has been full of useful information and was being managed responsibly.

Your posts have been extremely informative Cad, very much appreciated.

Makes me proud of the many brilliant Gonzaga Alums and fans out there. We have a pretty high brow community visiting these boards.

bballbeachbum
06-27-2020, 08:59 AM
First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

Best, =cad=

100% agreement with this. Cad, your posts in this thread are very much appreciated, thank you

bballbeachbum
06-27-2020, 09:00 AM
I ask the question, “Am I the only one on this board that thinks like I do or is it you feel I’m a nut?

I ask because there are never any comments regarding my posts...

I do not feel you are a nut, the opposite Bogo!

Zagceo
06-27-2020, 12:02 PM
It’s an election year and EVERYTHING is viewed through those lenses.

it is what it is.

looks at it like redshirt year.....maybe we get a wavier....but doubtful

MDABE80
06-27-2020, 12:11 PM
First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

Best, =cad=

It's got science based. It's more like an opinion piece with some stats tossed in. And its the type of thing that misleads. Sources? not many.just some talk. Apparently you think the CDC is a solid source. It's a part of the government but only to implement what the Congress tells it to. It's their charter. CDC thus, has become a political arm of who it decees to pay attention to. ROckefeller FOundation set it up and it's received fed funding along with $200 million from priovate companies ( drug companies chip in $80 million and private sources throw in $170 million. It's become more of a political organization and has strayed from its purpose.
Mybeef is attaching them to this administration when it's not. Even during the Obama years it had it's marching orders after SARS 2. committee after committee was formed by that particul administration to offer a course forward for this specifice tye of epidemic. What did CDC do? Wheat did Obam's group do? nothing.
the cupboard was actually bare!
But worse..CDC then bounght the tests.from where? China! And the sensitivity and specificity both were so low............there are unusable ( again bare cupboards).

DSHS ( the controlling agency) did nothing. Once again bare cupboards. but worse, nobocy at CDC tested the tests until COVID. And this is why I'm so damned angry.......billions spent to protect the public and nobody did their job. And nobody checked. This, there, is why I object to blaming the present group in the WH. It's goes to the prior administration. It's been turned into a political issue only because media says so. It's a failing of CDC and DSHS who are supposed to be monitoring this type of thing. unvarnished truth.

kitzbuel
06-27-2020, 12:45 PM
Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?

LTownZag
06-27-2020, 12:52 PM
Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?

And we have Obama to thank for that oversight! Bare cupboards!

How many other nonexistent global viruses did Obama not prevent?

:roll:

DZ
06-27-2020, 01:28 PM
Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?

There were no COVID tests, but there was an epidemiological team in the White House as part of the National Security Council. After responding to H1N1, SARS, Ebola, the previous administration revamped everything and moved a team of epidemiologists inside the White House for a more rapid response. This current White House disbanded the unit in 2018, as stated in this 2018 article written at the time:


The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.
Ziemer’s last day was Tuesday, the same day a new Ebola outbreak was declared in Congo. He is not being replaced.

Not only was the cupboard not bare, the previous administration specifically put the incoming administration through a pandemic drill as part of the transition:


The Obama administration walked incoming Trump administration officials through a hypothetical scenario in which a pandemic worse than the 1918 Spanish flu shut down cities like Seoul and London in early 2017, Politico reported.

During the briefing, Trump administration officials were told such a pandemic would likely lead to circumstances such as shortages of ventilators and that a coordinated national response would be “paramount,” according to documents obtained by the publication.
Of the Trump administration officials present during the meeting, about 66 percent no longer serve in the White House, according to Politico.

"Thirty Trump officials attended the exercise (Cabinet and senior White House staff)," Lu added in a tweet on Monday. "But the vast majority of these officials are no longer in government."

Everyone is free to prioritize what they'd like when it comes to government and politics but the facts are the facts and we're not playing basketball or getting back to business as a nation until everyone starts dealing in facts as they actually exist. All criticism is fair so long as one starts with the right facts. Here is a link to Politifact (https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/08/donald-trump/trump-said-obama-admin-left-him-bare-stockpile-wro/) on the point about the "cupboards" not being bare.

MDABE80
06-27-2020, 02:58 PM
No I don't realize that. China had the only test and CDC bought it.

They WH didn't disband it. It was moved out of the WH. The Zeimer was offered another job but declined.

I suppose you have some reliable sources for your statements. You and/por Kitz produce something. If Ive got this wrong, I
ll retract but nothing I've read portrays your stories.

MDABE80
06-27-2020, 03:25 PM
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=death+rate+in+usa+from+coronavirus

So yes the deaths are falling. Cases are increasing. It's the younger people that are getting infected but they seem to tolerate better and don't die. Either that or the virus is self attenuating. Cad's opinion on attenuation might be helpful here. Looks like it though. NB. last 3 days there's been and increase in deaths but overall the trend is good IMHO.

willandi
06-27-2020, 03:29 PM
And we have Obama to thank for that oversight! Bare cupboards!

How many other nonexistent global viruses did Obama not prevent?

:roll:

Nice try but not true.


https://gfycat.com/graywealthycanary

sonuvazag
06-27-2020, 04:03 PM
Nice try but not true.


https://gfycat.com/graywealthycanary

Classic

MDABE80
06-27-2020, 04:42 PM
Dixie still waiting on the sources you quote above...

DZ
06-27-2020, 05:14 PM
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=death+rate+in+usa+from+coronavirus

So yes the deaths are falling. Cases are increasing. It's the younger people that are getting infected but they seem to tolerate better and don't die. Either that or the virus is self attenuating. Cad's opinion on attenuation might be helpful here. Looks like it though. NB. last 3 days there's been and increase in deaths but overall the trend is good IMHO.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. The latest spikes happened in the last 2-3 weeks, and since NYC had the biggest protests and yet still falling admissions/numbers, it doesn't appear to be protests that did it. It appears to be bars, restaurants, churches - indoors appears to be far more dangerous, unfortunately. The cases are rising in the sun states, AZ, TX, MS, GA, FLA, all states where people are now indoors more and heavy church states (people sing in church, it's wonderful family, hard to distance) unfortunately, ICUs are at capacity in Houston, MS, and areas of FLA.

I hope you're right about deaths continuing down. I have my doubts. The trend, however, as Cad says, is the opposite of good, it's terrifying.

As for the White House office, it's just a fact Abe (and of course I have links, I don't make this stuff up). It doesn't work when people are outside the White House and spread out. Obama decided things didn't work well in SARS and H1N1 and in Ebola he centralized all control in the White House to streamline everything

This is from Foreign Policy magazine (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/), decades old, non-political, and written in January of 2020 - before the response was so disastrous:


For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response unit....

When Ebola broke out in West Africa in 2014, President Barack Obama recognized that responding to the outbreak overseas, while also protecting Americans at home, involved multiple U.S. government departments and agencies, none of which were speaking to one another. Basically, the U.S. pandemic infrastructure was an enormous orchestra full of talented, egotistical players, each jockeying for solos and fame, refusing to rehearse, and demanding higher salaries —all without a conductor. To bring order and harmony, der and harmony to the chaos, rein in the agency egos, and create a coherent multiagency response overseas and on the homefront, Obama anointed a former vice presidential staffer, Ronald Klain, as a sort of “epidemic czar” inside the White House, clearly stipulated the roles and budgets of various agencies, and placed incident commanders in charge in each Ebola-hit country and inside the United States. The orchestra may have still had its off-key instruments, but it played the same tune.

But that’s all gone now.

In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Under fire from both sides of the aisle, President Donald Trump dropped the proposal to eliminate Ebola funds a month later. But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.

In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC’s entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced

So to say they were reassigned, scattered, is first - wrong, it was disbanded entirely. Second, to the extent anyone was kept on but scattered, that was the problem in the first place. The system hadn't worked well. That article was written a week after the first case, and there was no indication anything would go wrong. It went horribly wrong, and one can argue China China China all day, but the appropriate response is to assume China isn't going to do the quality work that the American infectious disease unit can do, and have it up and ready to go. They didn't.

As for a link to the fact that the Obama admin - that had been through 3 total epidemic scares and managed them all relatively well (though each is unique) they put the Trump admin through a trial run specifically bc this scared them, we were vulnerable:

This is from "The Hill" - which is not partisan at all (indeed John Solomon did his Biden-Ukraine work there). These are facts, backed up by documents obtained by Politico (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/488069-obama-officials-walked-trump-aides-through-global-pandemic-exercise-in-2017):


The Obama administration walked incoming Trump administration officials through a hypothetical scenario in which a pandemic worse than the 1918 Spanish flu shut down cities like Seoul and London in early 2017, Politico reported.

During the briefing, Trump administration officials were told such a pandemic would likely lead to circumstances such as shortages of ventilators and that a coordinated national response would be “paramount,” according to documents obtained by the publication.

"Bottom line: when Trump says "we were all surprised" by #COVID19, he shouldn't have been," Lu continued.
"The Obama team warned Trump's staff about a possible pandemic. Whether it was lack of preparation or staff turnover, the necessary work wasn’t done to get in front of this."

As for the Cupboards being bare, Politifact (https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/08/donald-trump/trump-said-obama-admin-left-him-bare-stockpile-wro/) (the sin qua non on balance) rates the claim mostly false. There were few N95 masks but there were never enough, nor enough money appropriated by congress (though not "bare"). Obama Admin went through 3 epidemics, of course stocks would be down. Trump admin had 3 years w/o an epidemic, saying the cupboard were bare is an indictment of Trump's admin not restocking them, if true, which it wasn't:


Trump is exaggerating. While the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted shortcomings in the nation’s stockpile of emergency supplies and equipment, Trump did not inherit bare inventory.
It was full of supplies, but not enough to handle this particular pandemic. Most notably, the stockpile was short of N95 masks, the supply of which was depleted following the 2009 H1N1 outbreak during President Barack Obama’s tenure.


I am not trying to prove you wrong. (You did ask for citations and the information). In the spirit of the work that Cad has done, and to try to cut through some of the politics, I am simply setting out the facts. There is nothing I would have liked more than to have had this handled perfectly.

One could say that much of this was out of anyone's hands to control, and China wasn't forthcoming early enough. If the rest of the world was in the same boat as us there would be no blame as it would appear that it's impossible to do better. But South Korea and Canada gots its first cases the day we got ours, both countries left us in the dust. Europe had it worse, they're now opening safely with near no cases.

We are literally the world's worst and there's a reason for it.

If everyone simply wore masks every time out of the house we'd be FAR better off. But somehow that's not a thing with some and we're now paying the price.

You are free to support whomever. But COVID has been an abject failure and I don't think we're even in the 4th inning. There will be no widespread available vaccines prior to Dec. 31st. I understand the economic argument. I have lost 2/3 of my income bc it's ad-based. Nothing would help me more than a totally open economy. Except that's a recipe to ruin the econ for 5 years rather than 4 months.

I would have sent far more money to the bottom so people didn't suffer missed rents and food. Hold all long term corp. debt for six months and keep banks afloat. That allows the entire economy to at least go in a holding patter.


Economic pain is real and to be dealt with, no doubt. But no one is advocating keeping things shut down to hurt someone politically. No. One. Indeed had everyone followed through like NYC, the econ would be improving on its own by August. Instead we less than half-assed it and are now paying the price. I am 49 and there's no rule I will live through it if I get it, nor anyone else. So I prefer to give the vaccine time.

DZ
06-27-2020, 05:23 PM
Dixie still waiting on the sources you quote above...

Okay, I pulled all the sources that of course I knew existed. Now will you please get this AOC tweet that you say is everywhere. It took me 20 minutes to pull the sources you asked for and each one was exactly as I read it (bc I pulled it straight from them). I don't lie for my ends. I research and analyze for a living and get hammered if I misquote or miscite. (As in lose the job entirely).

So I got what you asked for. Others asked for your AOC tweet. I looked back to June 1st and there was nothing. She never said that Abe. She surely did say that we should shelter longer (I didn't see it in my review, but that makes sense), but the rest is made up. There are a lot of fake tweets and they are easy to spot. I have to sort through fake and real all the time for my work.

willandi
06-27-2020, 05:48 PM
Deaths are a lagging indicator. The latest spikes happened in the last 2-3 weeks, and since NYC had the biggest protests and yet still falling admissions/numbers, it doesn't appear to be protests that did it. It appears to be bars, restaurants, churches - indoors appears to be far more dangerous, unfortunately. The cases are rising in the sun states, AZ, TX, MS, GA, FLA, all states where people are now indoors more and heavy church states (people sing in church, it's wonderful family, hard to distance) unfortunately, ICUs are at capacity in Houston, MS, and areas of FLA.

I hope you're right about deaths continuing down. I have my doubts. The trend, however, as Cad says, is the opposite of good, it's terrifying.

As for the White House office, it's just a fact Abe (and of course I have links, I don't make this stuff up). It doesn't work when people are outside the White House and spread out. Obama decided things didn't work well in SARS and H1N1 and in Ebola he centralized all control in the White House to streamline everything

This is from Foreign Policy magazine (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/), decades old, non-political, and written in January of 2020 - before the response was so disastrous:



So to say they were reassigned, scattered, is first - wrong, it was disbanded entirely. Second, to the extent anyone was kept on but scattered, that was the problem in the first place. The system hadn't worked well. That article was written a week after the first case, and there was no indication anything would go wrong. It went horribly wrong, and one can argue China China China all day, but the appropriate response is to assume China isn't going to do the quality work that the American infectious disease unit can do, and have it up and ready to go. They didn't.

As for a link to the fact that the Obama admin - that had been through 3 total epidemic scares and managed them all relatively well (though each is unique) they put the Trump admin through a trial run specifically bc this scared them, we were vulnerable:

This is from "The Hill" - which is not partisan at all (indeed John Solomon did his Biden-Ukraine work there). These are facts, backed up by documents obtained by Politico (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/488069-obama-officials-walked-trump-aides-through-global-pandemic-exercise-in-2017):



As for the Cupboards being bare, Politifact (https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/08/donald-trump/trump-said-obama-admin-left-him-bare-stockpile-wro/) (the sin qua non on balance) rates the claim mostly false. There were few N95 masks but there were never enough, nor enough money appropriated by congress (though not "bare"). Obama Admin went through 3 epidemics, of course stocks would be down. Trump admin had 3 years w/o an epidemic, saying the cupboard were bare is an indictment of Trump's admin not restocking them, if true, which it wasn't:




I am not trying to prove you wrong. (You did ask for citations and the information). In the spirit of the work that Cad has done, and to try to cut through some of the politics, I am simply setting out the facts. There is nothing I would have liked more than to have had this handled perfectly.

One could say that much of this was out of anyone's hands to control, and China wasn't forthcoming early enough. If the rest of the world was in the same boat as us there would be no blame as it would appear that it's impossible to do better. But South Korea and Canada gots its first cases the day we got ours, both countries left us in the dust. Europe had it worse, they're now opening safely with near no cases.

We are literally the world's worst and there's a reason for it.

If everyone simply wore masks every time out of the house we'd be FAR better off. But somehow that's not a thing with some and we're now paying the price.

You are free to support whomever. But COVID has been an abject failure and I don't think we're even in the 4th inning. There will be no widespread available vaccines prior to Dec. 31st. I understand the economic argument. I have lost 2/3 of my income bc it's ad-based. Nothing would help me more than a totally open economy. Except that's a recipe to ruin the econ for 5 years rather than 4 months.

I would have sent far more money to the bottom so people didn't suffer missed rents and food. Hold all long term corp. debt for six months and keep banks afloat. That allows the entire economy to at least go in a holding patter.


Economic pain is real and to be dealt with, no doubt. But no one is advocating keeping things shut down to hurt someone politically. No. One. Indeed had everyone followed through like NYC, the econ would be improving on its own by August. Instead we less than half-assed it and are now paying the price. I am 49 and there's no rule I will live through it if I get it, nor anyone else. So I prefer to give the vaccine time.

Thanks Dizzy. Good answers.

I said it before and I'll say it again.

Lock down, everybody and every thing for 6 weeks. Only essentials. Health care, grocery and pharmacy to put you online or phone orders in the trunk. Truck drivers to deliver to food and prescripts to those places, Skeletal staff for utilities, for prescription delivery through the mail, and Law Enforcement to pick up those idiots that just refuse to obey. They will serve the 6 weeks (or until they are up) in jail, extended to 14 days after the lock down is over.
Every worker gets $5000, including landlords and bosses, but no corporations or companies. NO RENT for 2 months, but no payments to the banks by the landlords for two months. Utilities, cable tv, cell phone, credit cards etc get paid.
When the 6 weeks are up, people will burst out ready to spend that money. The economy will rebound.

We lose this season of MLB, Nascar etc, but we get ALL the college sports, the NFL and all fall, winter and spring sports. The NBA can go ahead because of their bubble/campus plan.
All tests go to health care, people that are transported and those they live with. Their quarantine lasts until they are proven clean.

LTownZag
06-27-2020, 06:36 PM
Okay, I pulled all the sources that of course I knew existed. Now will you please get this AOC tweet that you say is everywhere. It took me 20 minutes to pull the sources you asked for and each one was exactly as I read it (bc I pulled it straight from them). I don't lie for my ends. I research and analyze for a living and get hammered if I misquote or miscite. (As in lose the job entirely).

So I got what you asked for. Others asked for your AOC tweet. I looked back to June 1st and there was nothing. She never said that Abe. She surely did say that we should shelter longer (I didn't see it in my review, but that makes sense), but the rest is made up. There are a lot of fake tweets and they are easy to spot. I have to sort through fake and real all the time for my work.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-aoc-tweet/fact-check-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-did-not-tweet-that-governors-should-keep-businesses-closed-to-prevent-trumps-re-election-idUSKBN23V32A

Bing
06-27-2020, 06:39 PM
There was a Facebook post with a fake/fabricated AOC tweet. which was taken down by Facebook. But a certain segment of people continue to spew the lie as if it was real.


Okay, I pulled all the sources that of course I knew existed. Now will you please get this AOC tweet that you say is everywhere. It took me 20 minutes to pull the sources you asked for and each one was exactly as I read it (bc I pulled it straight from them). I don't lie for my ends. I research and analyze for a living and get hammered if I misquote or miscite. (As in lose the job entirely).

So I got what you asked for. Others asked for your AOC tweet. I looked back to June 1st and there was nothing. She never said that Abe. She surely did say that we should shelter longer (I didn't see it in my review, but that makes sense), but the rest is made up. There are a lot of fake tweets and they are easy to spot. I have to sort through fake and real all the time for my work.

caduceus
06-27-2020, 08:22 PM
It's got science based. It's more like an opinion piece with some stats tossed in. And its the type of thing that misleads. Sources? not many.just some talk. Apparently you think the CDC is a solid source.

It's apparent you didn't even read the article, or notice all the links in it to original sources. Almost nothing in the article references the CDC, save for a few small ones. The "just some talk" came from experts in their field regarding nCOV-19:


Purnima Madhivanan, infectious disease epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Arizona
Julia Marcus, epidemiologist and professor at Harvard Medical School
Jeffrey Shaman, epidemiologist at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (not CDC)
Roxane Cohen Silver, UC Irvine professor
Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota
Jennifer Nuzzo, epidemiologist who leads the Johns Hopkins Testing Insights Initiative at the Center for Health Security
Aileen Marty, infectious disease professor at Florida International University


Are you kidding me? If that's "just some talk," then I'd sure like to know where you're getting your information. This was a very well researched article for the lay press. Try clicking the many, many links in the article rather than dismissing it outright. This article very well comports with what's being seen by the "boots on the ground."

And, after seeing you post it repeatedly without evidence....THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT VIRAL ATTENUATION going on. There are plenty of reasons that the death rate is falling, but NONE of them have to do with attenuation. If you want to send me a journal paper (not a news item) that demonstrates viral attenuation to the degree that it's significantly altering ongoing death rates, I'd be happy to entertain it.

I'll wait.

(And can we not drag this thread down into politics? We were doing fine sticking to the science of the disease.)

DZ
06-27-2020, 08:31 PM
Cad, clear space in your box. I would like to show you a couple things, run an idea by you.

DZ
06-27-2020, 08:46 PM
There was a Facebook post with a fake/fabricated AOC tweet. which was taken down by Facebook. But a certain segment of people continue to spew the lie as if it was real.

Thank you. I suspected.

I knew it was either wholly fake, or something said that hardly related to the takeaway.

Amazing that a first term congresswoman with no power at all, all of 28, lives so prominently in RW media. I suspect it has something do do with the fact that she's drop dead gorgeous, while also being extreme (which is why she has no power)

I tried to say away bc it all becomes political. But, I was inspired by Cad. Fearlessly pointing out statistical analysis.

I can at least contribute documentation of what happened through the government process. Anyone doubt the failure should look at the statements about cases "Down to Zero," and "20K-30K," the infamous "Looks like losing 60,000), and now we're double that and I think we'll double this before wide spread vaccine. "I said slow the testing down please." "If we had less testing we'd have less cases."

I don't care who oversaw what. I care about getting out and getting honest. That can't be done with precise analysis of what's been tried and why.

Markburn1
06-27-2020, 09:21 PM
It's apparent you didn't even read the article, or notice all the links in it to original sources. Almost nothing in the article references the CDC, save for a few small ones. The "just some talk" came from experts in their field regarding nCOV-19:


Purnima Madhivanan, infectious disease epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Arizona
Julia Marcus, epidemiologist and professor at Harvard Medical School
Jeffrey Shaman, epidemiologist at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (not CDC)
Roxane Cohen Silver, UC Irvine professor
Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota
Jennifer Nuzzo, epidemiologist who leads the Johns Hopkins Testing Insights Initiative at the Center for Health Security
Aileen Marty, infectious disease professor at Florida International University


Are you kidding me? If that's "just some talk," then I'd sure like to know where you're getting your information. This was a very well researched article for the lay press. Try clicking the many, many links in the article rather than dismissing it outright. This article very well comports with what's being seen by the "boots on the ground."

And, after seeing you post it repeatedly without evidence....THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT VIRAL ATTENUATION going on. There are plenty of reasons that the death rate is falling, but NONE of them have to do with attenuation. If you want to send me a journal paper (not a news item) that demonstrates viral attenuation to the degree that it's significantly altering ongoing death rates, I'd be happy to entertain it.

I'll wait.

(And can we not drag this thread down into politics? We were doing fine sticking to the science of the disease.)

I appreciate your wish to stick with science. But, it’s just that, a wish. Everything is influenced by politics. Science and scientists are not immune. Scientists without bias are as rare as any other segment of the population. In addition, the results obtained by scientists are subject to being interpreted by people with political bias as well. Just the way it is.

MDABE80
06-27-2020, 09:56 PM
It was a question Cad. Re: attenuation. And yes I read the whole thing. No real data. Just opinions. Granted they are esteemed investigators. They must know something.

But the comments on death. That is the final outcome of a disease and or therapy. Itís Theo e thing that matters in any therapy that is hard. Even with the softer markers, I cannot explain increasing cases but obviously lower mortality. Like over 2/3rd lower than peak. Some hi I attenuation . You donít. Iím looking for a mechanism that explains that. No reason to get steam d or dogmatic when u have no answer either.

caduceus
06-27-2020, 10:08 PM
https://i.imgur.com/tYXyhFh.png

https://i.imgur.com/Xz7pZfG.png

https://i.imgur.com/MarkDlF.png

https://i.imgur.com/oY2wBJt.png

Remember, this is pre-hospital bed overload. Houston tore down their $17 million surge capacity hospital even while cases were climbing.

MDABE80
06-27-2020, 10:28 PM
THis is not news. SOme states are worse and some are ( btw the same ones we knew about early in the week) getting worse. Overall though ( the whole nation) is seeing less death compared to April and May. It's what I posted earlier today. I don't think we're in a big arguement. Leave that to the politicians......... spining it any way they want. IWhen I was an NIH research fellow, when we were designing out research for various interventions, the primary outcome was athe death count. Seconary analyses when looking at other outscomes were necouraged but really could be explained in myriad ways.

When designing further trials, I've always kept that in mind. Key to all this current work is that the data and how it's interpreted are dictated by trial design. We don't have a trail and we don't have a trial design with COVID.
Nothing therefore is secure . much is opinion....but the one thing beyond opinion is death count. Not here to argue.those are the basic and fundamental tenants of research. the end ( for now). Best wishes to everyone.

Zagceo
06-27-2020, 10:43 PM
I appreciate your wish to stick with science. But, itís just that, a wish. Everything is influenced by politics. Science and scientists are not immune. Scientists without bias are as rare as any other segment of the population. In addition, the results obtained by scientists are subject to being interpreted by people with political bias as well. Just the way it is.


100%

DZ
06-28-2020, 04:03 AM
100%

Is 100% wrong.

Hard sciences are 100% apolitical.

The answers they arrive at often upset certain political factions, who thus turn around and accuse them of being political.

They publish their methods and findings, it is reviewed by peers, who poke holes (or not) in findings.

Once you reject scientific findings that are inconvenient to your politics, you've rejected truth. Once truth is rejected, you're saying that truth has a political bias. We are headed away from democracy and self-rule. Remarkably, that doesn't bother some people who are ready to give democracy up if it means they can avoid undesired results. We've seen it happening.

bballbeachbum
06-28-2020, 05:27 AM
Is 100% wrong.

Hard sciences are 100% apolitical.

The answers they arrive at often upset certain political factions, who thus turn around and accuse them of being political.

They publish their methods and findings, it is reviewed by peers, who poke holes (or not) in findings.

Once you reject scientific findings that are inconvenient to your politics, you've rejected truth. Once truth is rejected, you're saying that truth has a political bias. We are headed away from democracy and self-rule. Remarkably, that doesn't bother some people who are ready to give democracy up if it means they can avoid undesired results. We've seen it happening.

100%

DZ
06-28-2020, 08:51 AM
It is important to remember that the entire point of propaganda is not to get a person to believe any one story or side. The point of propaganda is to flood people with "differing sides" and "differing stories" so much so that people give up on the idea that an objective truth exists. The point is to convince people that everything is impacted by political motivations, everyone has an angle, thus there is no such thing as "truth," so it's a waste of time to bother trying to establish the truth. Better to tell the story as it benefits one's predetermined motivation.

That's not my summation, it's a paraphrase of a quote that goes back 50 years. An echo chamber exists in every political niche or corner, one can hear what they need to hear from any point of view. But just bc these echo chambers exist doesn't mean that truth doesn't exist.

There are readily established truths, objective analysis. To discard scientific findings that are inconvenient and then label the science as political is to give up on truth as a social baseline and portends the end of self-government. Some are fine with that.

LTownZag
06-28-2020, 09:04 AM
It is important to remember that the entire point of propaganda is not to get a person to believe any one story or side. The point of propaganda is to flood people with "differing sides" and "differing stories" so much so that people give up on the idea that an objective truth exists. The point is to convince people that everything is impacted by political motivations, everyone has an angle, thus there is no such thing as "truth," so it's a waste of time to bother trying to establish the truth. Better to tell the story as it benefits one's predetermined motivation.

That's not my summation, it's a paraphrase of a quote that goes back 50 years. An echo chamber exists in every political niche or corner, one can hear what they need to hear from any point of view. But just bc these echo chambers exist doesn't mean that truth doesn't exist.

There are readily established truths, objective analysis. To discard scientific findings that are inconvenient and then label the science as political is to give up on truth as a social baseline and portends the end of self-government. Some are fine with that.

It's sunday morning so I'll say it.


Amen.


Without an agreed on shared set of facts, or without even any agreed-on conceptual framework for what kind of evidence and knowledge would in abstract produce shared facts, how will we ever hope to share deeper values and have meaningful conversation?

hockeyzag
06-28-2020, 10:56 AM
It's sunday morning so I'll say it.


Amen.


Without an agreed on shared set of facts, or without even any agreed-on conceptual framework for what kind of evidence and knowledge would in abstract produce shared facts, how will we ever hope to share deeper values and have meaningful conversation?

I’m sorry but I just couldn’t help myself, this is a downright hilarious thing to say after a religious declaration of affirmation. :roll:

LTownZag
06-28-2020, 11:11 AM
I’m sorry but I just couldn’t help myself, this is a downright hilarious thing to say after a religious declaration of affirmation. :roll:

That’s true. :-)

I’m not even religious, though I miss and appreciate lots of aspects of my Protestant childhood.
I just like the “amen” as a succinct way to say “well done, i second that point and I’m encouraged to have heard it said”.

hockeyzag
06-28-2020, 11:12 AM
That’s true. :-)

I’m not even religious, though I miss and appreciate lots of aspects of my Protestant childhood.
I just like the “amen” as a succinct way to say “well done, i second that point and I’m encouraged to have heard it said”.


Agreed, it works well :)

kitzbuel
06-28-2020, 07:42 PM
No I don't realize that. China had the only test and CDC bought it.

They WH didn't disband it. It was moved out of the WH. The Zeimer was offered another job but declined.

I suppose you have some reliable sources for your statements. You and/por Kitz produce something. If Ive got this wrong, I
ll retract but nothing I've read portrays your stories.

Sorry, been at the beach on vacation so responding belatedly.

The FDA description of the test kit includes genetic components that could only be developed once the genetics of the virus were established. This could only happen once the virus existed and was sequenced.




The CDC 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel includes the following materials or other authorized materials:
ē 2019-nCoV_N1 and 2019-nCoV_N2 vials containing primers and probes that target the nucleocapsid (N) gene and are designed for specific detection of SARS-CoV-2...


https://www.fda.gov/media/134919/download

The test kits could not be created until the virus existed.

caduceus
06-29-2020, 02:41 AM
I had to go back in the thread on this one, because everything is just so egregiously wrong, I couldn't leave it alone. No disrespect, but disinformation can kill. I hope dearly you can find more reputable sources for your information.


before the Vegas tournament I posted about my fear that the vegas tourney would be cancelled....I was scoffed at....glad we went though.....great time.....

I'm glad you had a great time, honestly as a fellow Zag fan. I didn't go. Some of my alum buds had parents with serious health risks, and we all decided it wasn't worth the risk to put them in jeopardy upon our return. That tournament was one of the very last to complete before all hell broke loose. One of the next CBB tournaments in the Northeast turned out to be a superspreading event that infected many, and killed people. (https://vtdigger.org/2020/06/10/spread-of-covid-19-from-uvm-game-more-extensive-than-thought/)

https://ja3ga476chj1nc6csy2j81c7-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/gym_diagram_dimensions-03.png


the lockdown was wrong headed....the vulnerable should have been asked to isolate.....what we did was just prolong the virus's course.....

I've mentioned previously in this thread (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68383-Roth-Zags-plan-for-season-of-uncertainty&p=1522019#post1522019) that this perception is a VERY dangerous one, and should be shunned. You have just enough knowledge about this pandemic to be a danger to yourself and others.


people say they follow science until it doesn't agree with them....science tells us that there will always be virus's around , even after covid....science tells us that a virus runs its course, and it weakens....science tells us that the sickliest, and oldest will always be more susceptible to any disease...


Tell that to the polio victims or HIV victims. Viruses often don't weaken. We still have Chicken Pox and Hantavirus and Ebola in this world. The 1918 influenza killed far more 20 year olds than 80 year olds in its first wave. Your argument is wrong.



there is no vaccine for the common cold, another corona virus....I wouldn't bet that covid will have a completely effective vaccine ....many people get the flu after getting the flu shot...

This demonstrates your absolute lack of knowledge about viral disease. Coronaviruses make up about 10% of "colds." People get the flu despite flu shots because influenza mutates like rabbits breed, and scientists have to use their crystal ball to determine which variants will be the prominent one in the upcoming season when they make the vaccine. It's a gambler's bet, and they try their best. Most of the time, they're correct (saving tens of thousands of lives). But not always. Our current nCOV-19 doesn't mutate nearly as much, because it has an RNA spell checker that keeps it essentially unchanged over time. The more you know. If we get to an effective vaccine that effectively targets its spike protein (the one that lets the virus enter your cells), we are likely golden.


testing is showing more people have or had the virus because we are testing so many more.....the death rate however is low....

More dangerous rhetoric. If you increase testing, and the rate of positivity is increasing, then your argument is baloney. If hospitalizations and deaths increase, then your argument is baloney. Furthermore, deaths lag new cases by almost a month (last I heard was 26 days, give or take a few days). It takes 3-10 days to feel sick, then another week or so to be hospitalized, then another week or so to kick the bucket. THEN another week to be recorded into some state database. The really scary thing is that some states are so backlogged on completing testing (Arizona has a two week! backlog), that we're not even getting a picture of what's happening on the ground realtime. That's absolutely terrifying!


people want 100% safety and the truth is there is no such thing....

Sure. I could fall in a manhole tomorrow, or choke on a bolt left in my salad mix. That doesn't mean we don't ensure that we have strong public measures to best prevent those kinds of incidents.

Bogozags
06-29-2020, 08:44 AM
Coronavirus updates: Fauci optimistic of vaccine by year's end...

I wonder just how long it would take to mass-produce the vaccine and make it available everywhere...also, wondering also what the cost of said vaccine be...I would imagine that insurance companies would be glad to cover the cost if one compares the cost of the vaccine to medical costs os staying in the hospital for 1-2 weeks...

willandi
06-29-2020, 08:50 AM
Coronavirus updates: Fauci optimistic of vaccine by year's end...

I wonder just how long it would take to mass-produce the vaccine and make it available everywhere...also, wondering also what the cost of said vaccine be...I would imagine that insurance companies would be glad to cover the cost if one compares the cost of the vaccine to medical costs os staying in the hospital for 1-2 weeks...

I read that the Remdesvir (sp ?) will be available, in this country, will be available for a base cost of just under $2500 for a course of treatment. In India, a generic will be available for $69.

I still believe that a true lock down for 6 weeks, with an adequate payout to ALL workers, will stop the virus almost completely.

MDABE80
06-29-2020, 12:27 PM
Will....correct. I don't like the drug for stopping infection rates. It does shorten hospitalizations by 30%.....that's what the FDA thinks as does Fauci.

It's good but falls short of what we need. I do think our own infection rates are in our own hands....at least now. Masks, distance, etc.<_----been saying this for over 90 days.
Just DO IT!

Bogozags
06-29-2020, 02:35 PM
Will....correct. I don't like the drug for stopping infection rates. It does shorten hospitalizations by 30%.....that's what the FDA thinks as does Fauci.

It's good but falls short of what we need. I do think our own infection rates are in our own hands....at least now. Masks, distance, etc.<_----been saying this for over 90 days.
Just DO IT!


Doc,

Please help me understand why the administration will not make wearing masks/facial coverings when in public mandatory. I listened to the VP this PM and he tape-danced around the issue???

MDABE80
06-29-2020, 03:23 PM
Bogo my friend...I have no idea. It's not leading by example . Trump and crew say they are tested daily and don't need masks. Still, to me, it would be such a small gesture and an important one. He's gonna need everything he's got to be reelected because a bunch of little things the media points out. Some are turned into a big deal when there should be a topic of discussion. Im masking up all the time. It's not a big deal but it does show respect and caring for others. PLUS I'd never wish this on anyone.
As for Trump and crew? show some good will dammit even if you don't have the disease and are negative every morning you are tested. Sorry Bogo, it irritates me.