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Zags11
04-28-2020, 03:04 PM
Can we create a poll???


Im 50/50 right now.

gonzagafan62
04-28-2020, 03:48 PM
Yes

phxfireflames
04-28-2020, 03:59 PM
Yes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxyPeME9TbI

FriarZag
04-28-2020, 04:00 PM
What would be the point of polling this topic, given that it isn’t subjective in nature?

LTownZag
04-28-2020, 05:53 PM
What would be the point of polling this topic, given that it isn’t subjective in nature?

Some people are curious about the median expectations of current events. They know what they themselves expect, they are curious what others expect. It's a natural human desire.

Also, we participate in all kinds of polls about eventual objective outcomes. How many posts have been dedicate to predicted game scores, or season records, or recruit destinations? A huge percentage of this forum.

FriarZag
04-28-2020, 07:41 PM
Some people are curious about the median expectations of current events. They know what they themselves expect, they are curious what others expect. It's a natural human desire.

Also, we participate in all kinds of polls about eventual objective outcomes. How many posts have been dedicate to predicted game scores, or season records, or recruit destinations? A huge percentage of this forum.

Fair, but none of the examples you just listed are yes/no questions that are 100% out of the playersí and coachesí control and wonít be decided on a basketball court. And majority of those thread examples are discussions and donít actually have polls, where you click to vote an option. Maybe I interpreted the request in the OP too literally?

All Iím trying to say is, whatís the payoff of voting on this? There are 4 possible outcomes for a vote cast:

1. I vote yes, and there is a season: Great!
2. I vote yes, and there is no season: Iím wrong, and this sucks!
3. I vote no, and there is a season: Iím wrong, but great!
4. I vote no, and there is no season: Iím right, but this sucks!

Iíll either be elated for the start of a new season or bummed beyond belief if there isnít one. The projections seem to change daily, so imo throwing up a prediction on April 28 to see if it sticks isnít worth much. For my own sanity, Iíll be taking the time over the next several months to prepare for both possibilities. This may or may not involve medicine of the single malt variety.

To your point about median expectations, there is far more qualitative discussion on the impact of the covid pandemic already going on in other threads, and in those threads Iíve enjoyed reading the contributions of the members of this community (including you LTown), so thanks to all for that!

Zags11
04-28-2020, 08:16 PM
Fair, but none of the examples you just listed are yes/no questions that are 100% out of the players’ and coaches’ control and won’t be decided on a basketball court. And majority of those thread examples are discussions and don’t actually have polls, where you click to vote an option. Maybe I interpreted the request in the OP too literally?

All I’m trying to say is, what’s the payoff of voting on this? There are 4 possible outcomes for a vote cast:

1. I vote yes, and there is a season: Great!
2. I vote yes, and there is no season: I’m wrong, and this sucks!
3. I vote no, and there is a season: I’m wrong, but great!
4. I vote no, and there is no season: I’m right, but this sucks!

I’ll either be elated for the start of a new season or bummed beyond belief if there isn’t one. The projections seem to change daily, so imo throwing up a prediction on April 28 to see if it sticks isn’t worth much. For my own sanity, I’ll be taking the time over the next several months to prepare for both possibilities. This may or may not involve medicine of the single malt variety.

To your point about median expectations, there is far more qualitative discussion on the impact of the covid pandemic already going on in other threads, and in those threads I’ve enjoyed reading the contributions of the members of this community (including you LTown), so thanks to all for that!

My bad. It was a question for the zag fans that are here. We talk about will they go pro or not? In the end does what we say matter? You could kill the board or members with this attitude of what should go.or stay.Im sorry we all wanna discuss something that cancelled march madness.


If i dont care for a thread, i ignore it or read it without comment. I will PM you next thread i make to see if it makes the cut. Lol

jsnider
04-28-2020, 08:31 PM
I think there will be a season this year. Here is what is in question for me. (1) Will the players get on campus in June so they can practice and get to know each other in ample time. Mark Few does a fabulous job of preparation that pays dividends during the season. Will he be able to accomplish that this year? I don't know. (2) Will there be fans in the stands at the Kennel? The Kennel Club and the fans are a huge benefit to the success of the team. The home record speaks volumes and the fans are the 6th man for the Zags? (3) If there are fans what percentage of capacity will they be able to fill the arena - 25%; 50%. I don't know the answers to these questions. My guess is we don't go back to normal until we get either a vaccine or some drug intervention to combat the virus. I listened to the JNJ call last week and their estimate is that we are 12 months away in the best case scenario to a vaccine that can be commercially administered.

Mantua
04-28-2020, 10:05 PM
There is news today about the possibility of the virus possibly capable of infecting us through airborne aerosol droplets as well as larger droplets. I have suspected that there was a missing link in the contagion chain. The possibility of a vaccine from Oxford University which could be ready to distribute in a little less than a year. Meanwhile, the short supply of data doesn’t provide a basis for making positive predictions. There are an awful lot of risky touch points in any kind of travel. I guess the NCAA will make the call on the 2020-21 season. I have no idea what the risk tolerance is for the NCAA.

LTownZag
04-28-2020, 10:08 PM
To your point about median expectations, there is far more qualitative discussion on the impact of the covid pandemic already going on in other threads, and in those threads Iíve enjoyed reading the contributions of the members of this community (including you LTown), so thanks to all for that!

Friarzag - Thank you for the kind words of appreciation.

I am in no way an epidemiology or exponential growth modeling expert. I've tried to post links to many interesting and informed sources but I don't consider myself a very informed primary source. I think we are all safer if there is greater dissemination of the reality of the situation, and if entities which have been incorrect in their thinking explain where they went wrong so we can all learn going forward.

LTownZag
04-28-2020, 10:16 PM
There is news today about the possibility of the virus possibly capable of infecting us through airborne aerosol droplets as well as larger droplets.

This is not a mere possibility and it has been the subjected of news stories for weeks now. Aerosolized transmission accounts comparison was even in the New England Journal of Medicine 2 weeks ago. (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973)


I personally do not expect an NCAA season with fans in the stands, at least more than about 1/2 capacity and enforced distancing. I could imagine some places having intentionally sparse stands and mandatory masks though.

College football is played outdoors, earlier in the fall/winter flu season, and without recirculating air.

Given that next November we will not have had widespread use of an effective vaccine, and will likely not yet have reached herd immunity or even over 20% yet infected from natural disease spread, I am having a hard time imagining authorities allowing tens of thousands of susceptible people to be clumped together indoors for 2-4 hours at a time in the height of flu season, especially including many students who soon would disperse nationally over winter break following the first 6 weeks of the season.

But that's just, you know, one man's opinion.

willandi
04-29-2020, 07:21 AM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-antibody-test-approval-news-europe-uk-accuracy-abbot-a9490026.html?fbclid=IwAR3vYNnCjlOLatqe824vk_-tzHfPtAXnL7jkDWo8BykOgWOoBf7x5onRBko

It looks as if they might be closing in on the testing. IF there was an accurate test, this one says it can tell if a person has been exposed 14 days, or longer, ago, then the players could be brought back and, after a 14 day quarantine, could begin practicing.
There are assumptions, of course. They would have to only associate with others that have undergone the quarantine, and there is always a chance that someone, somewhere, will have a brief contact with another exposed person.
If ALL the players, coaches, officials , announcers and camera crew could/would undergo the stringent measures to enforce this, along with almost constant rechecking, a season just might go ahead.
As fans are checked, contact tracing put in place, the corner just might be turned.

I don't believe they will ever eradicate this, or any other, virus. They just seem to be too able to mutate, but if levels of danger can be reduced substantially, life should go on.

LTownZag
04-29-2020, 07:26 AM
I don't believe they will ever eradicate this, or any other, virus.

Smallpox is calling, it would like a word. (If it still existed.)

willandi
04-29-2020, 09:07 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01221-y?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=8952c41133-briefing-dy-20200428_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-8952c41133-45349030

willandi
04-29-2020, 09:10 AM
Smallpox is calling, it would like a word. (If it still existed.)

Yes. There is. It is (hopefully) contained in a lab, one here at the CDC and one in Russia. I don't know how secure either of those locations would be against a serious terrorist attack to gain control of the sample.


https://www.wisegeek.com/is-there-still-smallpox-in-the-world.htm

Grand Valley Zag
04-29-2020, 10:25 AM
I sure the @#$% hope so.

A bigger deal to me personally is being able to grapple again.

TexasZagFan
04-29-2020, 11:28 AM
Smallpox is calling, it would like a word. (If it still existed.)

Measles beat smallpox to the punch.

JPtheBeasta
04-29-2020, 11:33 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01221-y?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=8952c41133-briefing-dy-20200428_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-8952c41133-45349030

When the WHO says that there is no evidence that antibodies prevent reinfection it is a very misleading statement and should be taken with a grain of salt. If this were true, search for a vaccine would be pointless. I would love to see a reporter ask them to qualify statements like that but reporters seem to be dancing to the pied piper right now.

LTownZag
04-29-2020, 12:07 PM
Measles beat smallpox to the punch.

The last victim of Smallpox, Janet Parker, died 42 years ago.
The virus has been eradicated for decades, though secret strains may or may not exist at a couple of the world's most secure facilities.

More than half a million people were infected of Measles last year alone. Over 100,000 die annually.

How did measles beat smallpox?

jazzdelmar
04-29-2020, 01:42 PM
Yes, but late start, maybe January.

Mantua
04-29-2020, 01:52 PM
This is not a mere possibility and it has been the subjected of news stories for weeks now. Aerosolized transmission accounts comparison was even in the New England Journal of Medicine 2 weeks ago. (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973)


I personally do not expect an NCAA season with fans in the stands, at least more than about 1/2 capacity and enforced distancing. I could imagine some places having intentionally sparse stands and mandatory masks though.

College football is played outdoors, earlier in the fall/winter flu season, and without recirculating air.

Given that next November we will not have had widespread use of an effective vaccine, and will likely not yet have reached herd immunity or even over 20% yet infected from natural disease spread, I am having a hard time imagining authorities allowing tens of thousands of susceptible people to be clumped together indoors for 2-4 hours at a time in the height of flu season, especially including many students who soon would disperse nationally over winter break following the first 6 weeks of the season.

But that's just, you know, one man's opinion.

I don’t think that the concept has yet to become part of general public knowledge, but that’s true of many aspects of this pandemic. It’s clear that you are making an effort to dig out as much information as possible. Most aren’t. There is still a lot of knowledge to be gained about the virus. I used the word "possibility" because we need more studies on aerosol transmission, despite the findings being very likely to be true.

MDABE80
04-29-2020, 05:04 PM
The new England article doesn't have much to do with transmission which is the key to keeping places shuttered or open. What the article shows is progressive deterioration of a virus on different surfaces. Along those same lines, a leap of logic must occur to generate an assumption that somehow a viral load on an inanimate surface might be somehow attached to a human who might then give it to someone else. Nothing in the article's data or any data published so far that might measure transmission. Basically it's a test tube article that should be and IS confined to loads against time on inert surfaces. We know that porous surfaces vs hard metal surfaces ( a doorknob for instance) allows for a bit longer life for a virus.

It's a nice try to smuggle in viral dynamics and somehow apply them to a basketball season. I do think, as this virus peters out, that by late fall we will have a season provided that nothing unanticipated happens. Fauci hints that when winter comes there might be increased activity of this virus as well as resurgence of FLU ( which happens anyway). Nobody knows for sure. I am planning to see the Zags open as a no 1 ranking with a no 1 seed and going the distance..the WHOLE distance:) I am praying for it.

Some may not agree. but why not us??

willandi
04-29-2020, 05:27 PM
I'm not sure of the source or the accuracy, but this makes sense.
https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/94785230_10222137153328696_8715741073227382784_n.j pg?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=Hh5X1KX8HlEAX9i2Euw&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&oh=e20881f3c8e186edd32fcb5c731cc887&oe=5ECFD279

willandi
04-29-2020, 05:28 PM
This also makes a lot of sense, and the source doesn't matter.
https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/95500295_3474828799198635_1044768618866278400_n.jp g?_nc_cat=107&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=QN4a0ghsk5IAX8nF-75&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&oh=8519f281ae4de1bfba17772c64cd8529&oe=5ED1A2D7

MDABE80
04-29-2020, 05:40 PM
Both funny especially the 2nd one Will. Had to chuckle.

The first one underscores what China told every available ear that there was no human to human transmission. Big price to pay for big fibs...

zagbeliever
04-29-2020, 06:10 PM
Yes! (optimistic)

zagbeliever
04-29-2020, 06:20 PM
My niece is a microbiologist at Rocky mountain Labs in Montana. They are working on and expect to distribute a vaccine in September

https://news.iheart.com/featured/coronavirus/content/2020-04-28-promising-signs-after-scientists-test-coronavirus-vaccine-on-monkeys/?mid=388576&rid=98108786&sc=email&pname=newsletter&cid=NATIONAL&keyid=National%20iHeart%20Daily%20NewsTalk&campid=headline1_readmore

willandi
04-29-2020, 06:28 PM
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-fauci-tout-good-news-remdesivir-drug-trial/story?id=70407208&cid=clicksource_4380645_2_heads_hero_live_twopack_ hed

MDABE80
04-29-2020, 06:40 PM
May shorten it from 11 to 7 days. Need to see the data. We need prevention. And those who should be treated aggressively treat d are theoldsters with comorbid diseases .

zagbeliever
04-29-2020, 07:11 PM
May shorten it from 11 to 7 days. Need to see the data. We need prevention. And those who should be treated aggressively treat d are theoldsters with comorbid diseases .

Sadly, I'm kind of in that category by having an autoimmune disease. Rocky Mountain Labs is actually working on a vaccine which according to the paper is soon to be made in India and if all goes accordingly will be available in September.

"A team of researchers at the Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Hamilton, Montana have reported promising results are they work with scientists and doctors around the world to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. The scientists injected six rhesus macaques with vaccine and said that after exposing them to the coronavirus for 28 days, none of the monkeys tested positive for the virus.

The team will begin human trials later this week, which they hope to finish by September. If the vaccine does prove to be safe and effective, there could be an abundant supply ready to be distributed.

The Serum Institute of India, which is the largest vaccine producer in the world, announced they would begin manufacturing the vaccine. They hope to start churning out five million doses per month to get ahead of the demand, and suggested they could double that production if necessary.

"We are not waiting for the trials to get over in September in the UK, and then start production here," Adar Poonawalla, the CEO of the Serum Institute of India, told the Times of India. "The decision — at our own risk and cost — has been solely taken to get a jump-start on manufacturing, to have enough doses available, if the clinical trials prove successful."

The news comes after a team of researchers from Sinovac Biotech, a privately-held Chinese company, had similar results testing monkeys and is beginning the first phase of clinical trials in China. In their study, the monkeys that were not given the vaccine all got sick when exposed to the coronavirus."

Early stages but promising. (that is the above link I posted)

LTownZag
04-29-2020, 07:28 PM
It's a nice try to smuggle in viral dynamics and somehow apply them to a basketball season. I do think, as this virus peters out, that by late fall we will have a season provided that nothing unanticipated happens. Fauci hints that when winter comes there might be increased activity of this virus as well as resurgence of FLU ( which happens anyway).


I linked the NEJM article. It was solely to show we've known of aerosol transmission for weeks. There was no smuggling, attempted or otherwise.



Fauci hints that when winter comes there might be increased activity of this virus as well as resurgence of FLU ( which happens anyway).

Abe, does that actually sound to you like an accurate representation of what Fauci just said?

Or just take this guy's advice:

It’s just a minor variation of the flu. Tony Fauci is running this program for Trump. Listen to what he says.

Watch the video here - the primary source, and let me know if you think you accurately portrayed the words of your friend Mr. Fauci. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/fauci-warns-us-could-be-in-for-a-bad-fall-if-coronavirus-treatments-dont-work.html)
<iframe width=560 height=349 src=https://player.cnbc.com/p/gZWlPC/cnbc_global?playertype=synd&byGuid=7000133778 frameborder=0 scrolling=no allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen ></iframe>

If a TV channel you don't like summarized a politician you do like with that degree of accuracy, how would you feel about them as reliable sources? ("hints...might be increased activity")? Why not just go strait to the source of the quote: (https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/natural-disasters/495211-fauci-says-second-wave-of-coronavirus-is)


“I’m almost certain it will come back. The virus is so transmissible and it’s globally spread,” Fauci said, noting that as cases in the U.S. stabilize, parts of the world like southern Africa are seeing an increase in cases.

“In my mind, it’s inevitable that we will have a return of the virus or maybe it never went away,” he added.

As states around the country take steps to reopen their economies, Fauci said testing, isolating those who are infected and tracing their contacts will be key in the coming months in keeping the number of projected deaths down to roughly 70,000 or 80,000.

“If by that time we have put into place all of the countermeasures that you need to address this, we should do reasonably well,” Fauci said. “If we don’t do that successfully, we could be in for a bad fall and a bad winter.”




Since a ban was put on Chinese coming to the US, Im certain this largely explains why our mortality is so low. Once China refused to let US Docs in, we knew something ( didn't know what exactly) was up.

-Low mortality? (you still certain of the explanation for a non-existant result? Is that like being certain of Santa's favorite color?)
-China never refused to let international or USA doctors in (and never kicked them out).
-If "we" (Trump and the feds) knew "something was up", why was Trump publicly praising and speaking confidently about China's dictator and the Chinese response throughout January and as late as Feb 7, at least? (https://thebulwark.com/newsletter-issue/was-trump-incompetent-or-was-he-lying/) Why on March 6 would Trump have said "it’s an unforeseen problem. What a problem. Came out of nowhere, but we’re taking care of it."





Big price to pay for big fibs...




https://i.imgur.com/yzlohtj.png

https://i.imgur.com/hhsbuNL.png

MDABE80
04-29-2020, 07:52 PM
I don’t know if the moderators want this back and forth to be done again. Taking LTown to school is a bit uninteresting and may be tiresome.. Reno stopped it in the Foo. One might think LTown would get the point. More so when the board here is basketball.

LTownZag
04-29-2020, 07:59 PM
More so when the board here is basketball.

The subject of this discussion thread is if COVID-19 will prevent all or part of the upcoming season. That discussion is inherently more about epidemiology that about Xs and Os.

ABE, if you are ever able to find that I've written or linked to anything innacurate, you ever correct any of the many inaccurate things you have broadcast, or you simply stop spreading misinformation as a public-facing MD, I will stop correcting that misinformation and would apologize if anything I write is incorrect. I would like nothing more than factual information being as widely spread as possible.

If you can point me to any evidence that China "kicked out" or refused entry to USA health officials, I'd love to learn more about those events. You've described those events as "beyond dispute" so linking a single article should be simple.

willandi
04-29-2020, 08:04 PM
You guys can do it in private messaging...or get a room?

It is for sure that the back and forth, no matter who is right, will get the thread locked.

Markburn1
04-29-2020, 08:07 PM
The subject of this discussion thread is if COVID-19 will prevent all or part of the upcoming season. That discussion is inherently more about epidemiology that about Xs and Os.

ABE, if you are ever able to find that I've written or linked to anything innacurate, you ever correct any of the many inaccurate things you have broadcast, or you simply stop spreading misinformation as a public-facing MD, I will stop correcting that misinformation and would apologize if anything I write is incorrect. I would like nothing more than factual information being as widely spread as possible.

If you can point me to any evidence that China "kicked out" or refused entry to USA health officials, I'd love to learn more about those events. You've described those events as "beyond dispute" so linking a single article should be simple.

I linked six in the other thread.

LTownZag
04-29-2020, 08:27 PM
I linked six in the other thread.

Mark - thank you!

Here is the link to a list of some stories Mark found about China refusing to let US Doctors visit Wuhan in January, and eventually (Tuesday, Jan 28) agreeing to let doctors in, under the leadership of WHO staff. ( http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67989-COVID-19-Links-Discussion&p=1517802#post1517802 )

It looks like US doctors were never kicked out, but they were also denied entry in January when the HHS secretary requested visitation rights.

I apologize to MDABE80 for doubting this incident, and thank Mr. Mark Burn for linking to some stories about it.