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Zagceo
03-12-2020, 07:54 PM
Seattle resident has created this real time data base.

https://ncov2019.live/data (https://ncov2019.live/data)

Jazzgirl_127
03-13-2020, 04:20 AM
They're not even testing for it here, that's the scary part to me. It's not going to be a problem until it's a huge problem. I'm hoping our schools do the same as the surrounding states and cancel for the next two weeks so we can stay home.

willandi
03-13-2020, 05:52 AM
They're not even testing for it here, that's the scary part to me. It's not going to be a problem until it's a huge problem. I'm hoping our schools do the same as the surrounding states and cancel for the next two weeks so we can stay home.

I was/am thinking of being by appt. only for 2 weeks, getting all my jobs caught up and completed...but unless they also waive utility bills for two weeks, it would be a rough go.

Jazzgirl_127
03-13-2020, 05:57 AM
I was/am thinking of being by appt. only for 2 weeks, getting all my jobs caught up and completed...but unless they also waive utility bills for two weeks, it would be a rough go.

I completely understand, and think that's a good idea. I hope there is something they can do to ease the burden this is putting on small businesses. Some of our local shops are doing call ahead orders so that it cuts down on being face to face and also lets them know how much they need to have in stock so they don't over produce.

RenoZag
03-13-2020, 07:27 AM
Useful info in that link. Thanks, Zagceo.

Not the kind of scoreboard we thought we would be watching in March 2020.

Stay safe.

willandi
03-13-2020, 09:34 AM
I was/am thinking of being by appt. only for 2 weeks, getting all my jobs caught up and completed...but unless they also waive utility bills for two weeks, it would be a rough go.

https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/s960x960/89467847_2948085495254336_672504475969126400_o.jpg ?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=1480c5&_nc_ohc=h6oGUF3PX00AX-5WGWd&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&_nc_tp=7&oh=5b10791e95391b1c50cfbd29ec2870f3&oe=5E9225E9

Zagceo
03-27-2020, 08:07 AM
From Dr Fauci reported in New England Journal of Medicine


This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387#)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

23dpg
03-27-2020, 08:39 AM
From Dr Fauci reported in New England Journal of Medicine



https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Cherry picking season. Here’s the entire paragraph.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

LTownZag
03-27-2020, 08:49 AM
Seattle resident has created this real time data base.

https://ncov2019.live/data (https://ncov2019.live/data)

That Seattle resident is a 17 year old computer prodigy from Mercer Island. Pretty amazing. He began his site in December.

DZ
03-31-2020, 10:05 PM
That Seattle resident is a 17 year old computer prodigy from Mercer Island. Pretty amazing. He began his site in December.

There was another Mercer Island child computer prodigy who had some things to say on epidemics:


https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=bill+gates+ted+talk+next+pand emic+

kitzbuel
04-01-2020, 03:53 AM
Even with the increased availability of testing the US mortality rate is increasing. I use the Johns Hopkins site to track: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.

The rate has steadily climbed from below 1% last week to above 2% this week.

LongIslandZagFan
04-01-2020, 05:33 AM
Even with the increased availability of testing the US mortality rate is increasing. I use the Johns Hopkins site to track: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.

The rate has steadily climbed from below 1% last week to above 2% this week.


Keep in mind the death rate is an echo of the new infections. In NY, the new infections from about 10 days ago were spiking... I think the increase in the death rate is likely a reflection of that spike. The rate of new infections is slowing some. Growth rates last week were ranging from 23-42% per day. Last three days has been at about 12-14%. Now, mind you, that is day to to growth of infections so it is a LARGE number. But it is slowing some.

The scary thing is that the "spike" last week was numbering in the 1-2K range.... and that one is taxing NY heavily now. The current growth is 7-8K per day in NY. In other words, NY is adding per day more than the total of that initial spike. The lack of equipment is going to cost a ton of lives. I have a friend that is a nurse on those front lines... she likely has it now. Nurses and docs are dropping like flies due to lack of PPE... I shudder to think what the next couple weeks are going to bring here... It will likely shock everyone to the core. Whatever you THINK it will be, it will likely pale in comparison to reality.

FYI... foo is the only place I am ever going to post until likely the summer... and even that is going to be rare.

LTownZag
04-01-2020, 07:11 AM
Keep in mind the death rate is an echo of the new infections. In NY, the new infections from about 10 days ago were spiking... I think the increase in the death rate is likely a reflection of that spike. The rate of new infections is slowing some. Growth rates last week were ranging from 23-42% per day. Last three days has been at about 12-14%. Now, mind you, that is day to to growth of infections so it is a LARGE number. But it is slowing some.


Do you have a site that captures prior days' data?

I have been following closely on https://ncov2019.live/ and it seems like USA deaths and USA new confirmed infections (not actual infections) have been risen 18-24% per day for every day of the last 7 or 8. What days had as low as 12-14 or high as 42?

LongIslandZagFan
04-01-2020, 07:16 AM
Do you have a site that captures prior days' data?

I have been following closely on https://ncov2019.live/ and it seems like USA deaths and USA new confirmed infections (not actual infections) have been risen 18-24% per day for every day of the last 7 or 8. What days had as low as 12-14 or high as 42?

Wikipedia actually has some good historical data for NY state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)

I'd hot link to the chart but it won't let me.

For the record... I live in Suffolk county.

kitzbuel
04-01-2020, 08:13 AM
Do you have a site that captures prior days' data?

I have been following closely on https://ncov2019.live/ and it seems like USA deaths and USA new confirmed infections (not actual infections) have been risen 18-24% per day for every day of the last 7 or 8. What days had as low as 12-14 or high as 42?

Johns Hopkins puts their data out on a github site: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

Jazzgirl_127
04-01-2020, 10:11 AM
Keep in mind the death rate is an echo of the new infections. In NY, the new infections from about 10 days ago were spiking... I think the increase in the death rate is likely a reflection of that spike. The rate of new infections is slowing some. Growth rates last week were ranging from 23-42% per day. Last three days has been at about 12-14%. Now, mind you, that is day to to growth of infections so it is a LARGE number. But it is slowing some.

The scary thing is that the "spike" last week was numbering in the 1-2K range.... and that one is taxing NY heavily now. The current growth is 7-8K per day in NY. In other words, NY is adding per day more than the total of that initial spike. The lack of equipment is going to cost a ton of lives. I have a friend that is a nurse on those front lines... she likely has it now. Nurses and docs are dropping like flies due to lack of PPE... I shudder to think what the next couple weeks are going to bring here... It will likely shock everyone to the core. Whatever you THINK it will be, it will likely pale in comparison to reality.

FYI... foo is the only place I am ever going to post until likely the summer... and even that is going to be rare.

That's awful about your nurse friend becoming infected. I know here the hospitals were already extremely low on PPE by the time we had our first confirmed positive in the county (they were being told 'here's your mask for the day,' and the next day it was 'here's your mask for the week'. I made 86 fabric face masks to send to one of the nursing homes near us because they can't even buy the non-n95 masks. I'm going to keep making them to donate as long as I can get the materials but that's becoming harder and harder because places that sell what I need were closed due to being non essential.

kitzbuel
04-01-2020, 11:36 AM
That's awful about your nurse friend becoming infected. I know here the hospitals were already extremely low on PPE by the time we had our first confirmed positive in the county (they were being told 'here's your mask for the day,' and the next day it was 'here's your mask for the week'. I made 86 fabric face masks to send to one of the nursing homes near us because they can't even buy the non-n95 masks. I'm going to keep making them to donate as long as I can get the materials but that's becoming harder and harder because places that sell what I need were closed due to being non essential.

you can probably get a lot of that online.

Jazzgirl_127
04-01-2020, 11:43 AM
you can probably get a lot of that online.

It has really long ship dates. Late May delivery. I wasn't planning to actually go into stores and shop, but even doing a curbside pickup for online orders isn't possible since they are completely shut.

gu03alum
04-01-2020, 12:51 PM
CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html) has a lot of data.

Jazzgirl_127
04-02-2020, 09:02 AM
This would be pretty awesome if it's effective! https://www.upmc.com/media/news/040220-falo-gambotto-sars-cov2-vaccine

Last week was the anniversary of Salk's polio vaccine.

kitzbuel
04-07-2020, 01:14 PM
This would be pretty awesome if it's effective! https://www.upmc.com/media/news/040220-falo-gambotto-sars-cov2-vaccine

Last week was the anniversary of Salk's polio vaccine.

Maybe they can try testing the vaccination on tigers next!

willandi
04-07-2020, 02:04 PM
Maybe they can try testing the vaccination on tigers next!

Or Cougars.

Jazzgirl_127
04-07-2020, 02:29 PM
Maybe they can try testing the vaccination on tigers next!

I saw that, that's crazy they can catch it too. They're also working on a test to test for immunity, I guess if a vaccine takes awhile at least the immunity test will let some people go back to their normal lives.

MDABE80
04-10-2020, 12:18 PM
" Nurses and docs are dropping like flies due to lack of PPE... I shudder to think what the next couple weeks are going to bring here... It will likely shock everyone to the core. Whatever you THINK it will be, it will likely pale in comparison to reality. " 4/1/20 LIZ if you have other data...….post it please

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-deaths-infections-doctors-nurses-healthcare-workers-medical-staff-1496056

Probably a few more in the last week. This is from 4/4/2020

ZagaZags
04-12-2020, 12:19 AM
In mid January, China banned travel to and from Wuhan within China, yet they allowed travel from Wuhan to other Counties. That doesn't seem like a good idea. W.H.O said masks are a bad idea back in early March. Big mistake there. China said back in March, they will let America drown in Corona Virus, that's not a very nice thing to say during a pandemic. Maybe we need to rethink a few things in the future.

MDABE80
04-12-2020, 05:45 PM
Hospital admits for Corona dropping, ICU admits for corona dropping, Ventilator use is likewise dropping, Death rates are slowing. 20 years of data analysis shows the Influenza mortality ranges from 29K to 61K annually in the US. Surely there will be more fatal outcomes but the trend is better. Long slog to get this cleaned up but it appears progress is being made. Happy Easter friends..

Zagceo
04-15-2020, 11:30 AM
Interesting how Sweden handled its economy

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-hasnt-sweden-gone-into-lockdown-over-covid-19-pandemic-11966132

RenoZag
04-16-2020, 05:53 PM
Dashboard Link: https://ncov2019.live/data?fbclid=IwAR31PUeGzN6EMNr9xf49W-DSuOolby4nSAD7VMsleENmppidJ7R7ovzpGfI. (as of 4/16/2020 6:42pm PDST )

US Confirmed Cases 675,640. An increase of 27,637 from yesterday.
US Deaths 34,552. An increase of 2,079 from yesterday.

34522 / 675,640 = 5.1%.

MDABE80
04-17-2020, 11:16 PM
Reno, it's become well know now that you could die from something else but if you were seropositive, it's counted as a COVID death. Another aberration is in NY ( and who knows where else) where 4000 died and those deaths were counted as COVID but they were never tested for COVID so the Diagnosis could be confirmed or not.

Im not sure how or why the deaths were counted this way but death directly caused by Corona will likely be much less than advertised when the formal data is finally known. Johns Hopkins is the data management center. Duke and Hopkins are thought to be the best. Lots to be known yet. Death rates and mortality counts are slowing. I think that's a good sign.

LTownZag
04-18-2020, 07:55 AM
Reno, it's become well know now that you could die from something else but if you were seropositive, it's counted as a COVID death. Another aberration is in NY ( and who knows where else) where 4000 died and those deaths were counted as COVID but they were never tested for COVID so the Diagnosis could be confirmed or not.

Im not sure how or why the deaths were counted this way but death directly caused by Corona will likely be much less than advertised when the formal data is finally known. Johns Hopkins is the data management center. Duke and Hopkins are thought to be the best. Lots to be known yet. Death rates and mortality counts are slowing. I think that's a good sign.

Abe, this is the same method the CDC uses to calculate Flu death burden, among others. This counts things like deaths from pneumonia acquired in hospital, a proximate cause, as deaths from flu, the root cause of the hospitalization. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

Here's a rough visualization of the kind of thing the CDC uses to estimate true deaths. We know traffic accidents are down, homicides are down, and all other diseases are also WAY DOWN due to little human-human contact. So CDC uses all cause mortality to estimate deaths due to Covid-19. By the way, this graph is now 2 weeks old. In those two weeks USA deaths have gone from ~8.5K to ~38.5K.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVRXJKxWsAYO4p6?format=jpg&name=large


You missed the point. Im speaking to the low mortality rate across the couintry which hovers at 1.4-1.9% according Johns Hopkins which is the clearing house of the data.

Abe - When did Johns Hopkins ever provide a USA mortality rate of 1.4-1.9%? For reference, South Korea, which has had the most extensive contact tracing & testing, not hesitating to test the asymptomatic, to the extent that they barely have any cases or deaths now, has a Case Fatality Rate of over 2%. To believe that the fatality rate is actually ~1%, you have to believe Korea is missing >50% of cases. Abe, if you can demonstrate that Johns Hopkins was giving a USA mortality rate under 2% at any time this month (your quote was 1.4-1.9% in April) I'll never respond to any claims in any of your posts again. Ball is in your court, simply substantiate your claim.

The Johns Hopkins screenshot (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality) below is from today, April 18 2020. We are 25 days past when you predicted "this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks" and the Johns Hopkins Mortality is quadruple what you claimed it was (quoted above) from early April, despite you telling us it has also been falling from that baseline.

https://i.imgur.com/lDxQM8p.png






Here's some background (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries) on counting or estimating deaths for a hurricane, epidemic, etc by comparing all cause mortality (total dead people) this week, to this same week last year and the year before. The Economist gives 5 free articles and then required a subscription, but I'll post a couple screenshots.


https://i.imgur.com/ubUyKNH.png

https://i.imgur.com/5PPxVG9.png

sonuvazag
04-18-2020, 08:47 AM
The 2009 Swine Flu had 3,433 confirmed deaths in the United States, but hardly anyone uses that figure today because the CDC later estimated there were 12,469 deaths (range: 8,868–18,306). The number I see most often is just a round 10,000, but Trump, for example, likes to say there were 17,000 deaths from the Swine Flu and he'll point out it was a total catastrophe, which is interesting because, when it comes to confirmed deaths, there have already been nearly 10 times as many from COVID-19.

When authorities like the CDC eventually make their estimates on total COVID-19 fatalities, it will obviously be much higher than the confirmed number, and the process of getting to that estimated number will be no different from any other historic epidemic. HT to LTownZag who explains the process in greater detail in the previous post.

Jazzgirl_127
04-18-2020, 09:59 AM
And deaths from pneumonia that set in due to the victim having influenza in 1918 would have still counted as death from influenza because they wouldn't have gotten the pneumonia without the influenza? I've only seen tweets claiming that someone's friend's cousin's neighbor's grandma had a heart attack but was listed as having Covid...so I'd be interested in unbiased sources that claim this is happening.

There are also people who early on were told by doctors that they most likely had Covid but they wouldn't test them because they were conserving tests at that time for only people who had travelled outside the country. I'm not sure how or why they didn't think it was worth testing people for a HIGHLY contagious disease when they exhibited all of the symptoms other than us (refusing tests offered by the WHO months ago) not having tests because of how ill prepared the countr was. Hopefully the people who weren't allowed to get a test didn't die, wouldn't want to possibly inflate the scoreboard if the ME diagnosed it as Covid without an actual test that they were refused while alive :rolleyes:

When this is all said and done, 4,000 *possible* mistaken causes of death are going to be a drop in the bucket, but if that's the hill people want to die on, go for it. Fine, we'll take away 4,000 from the total reported, that still leaves us with 30,000 Americans dying in a month. Right now in a neighboring county they're freezing an old ice rink because there's an outbreak in a nursing home and if it's as deadly for that community as it was at the nursing home in Washington the morgue will run out of space.

This should not be happening.

LongIslandZagFan
04-18-2020, 10:12 AM
Interesting how Sweden handled its economy

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-hasnt-sweden-gone-into-lockdown-over-covid-19-pandemic-11966132


Sweden experiment is failing:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

MDABE80
04-18-2020, 10:53 AM
Trouble with those graphs is that they're based on ALL cause which doesn't depict the true/accurate story. What John Doe wants to know is how many people have the disease and how many people die from it. Those 4000 cases died from who knows? They ended in the wastebasket diagnosis of "COVID" even though we don't know what killed them.
When I was a commissioner at FDA (New drugs and devices) or NIH (Grants and medical contracts) the biostatistical sections always argued for all cause mortality . Why? Because it "purified" the data sets which are easier to manage and therefore easier to publish. And when you publish...….

Same thing happened with our randomized trials...…..For example, we randomized several hundred pts with unstable angina ( coronary disease that became active with unpredictable thresholds for disabling chest pain) . Although some were actually treated medically, because they were allocated to the surgical group they were counted as surgically treated. Why because the stat guys/gals ( the same ones busy now) employed an "Intent to treat principle"/which purified the data and they thought ( No MD's) data would be easier to manage. Small wonder that they thought was no difference in the outcome between the two therapies. So a series of papers were published indicating there was no difference I the therapies even though when "intent to treat" was eliminated, it was obvious surgery was tons better in the short and long term.

I apologize for the long winded reason why I have trouble with government data and unless I know the methods of data management..I just don't trust it. SO while the graphs look enticing, they may not show what's reality when ALL Cause mortality is used. So when the fancy displays are used, they may not be accurate. probably not.
SO does it matter when 4000 cases die when they are counted as COVID mortality? I mean "dead's dead right? Yes...very much so. why, because therapies are generated based on the data given. Wrong data/inaccurate data =wrong therapies. And if a therapy fails, it may be because the underlying data given likely are tailored to a model generated by the biostatistics section. Modeling at this point is haphazard. Likewise is "predicted" mortality or morbidity predictions

And when it becomes politicized as in now, it's hard to know reality. SO the question remains " How do we know for sure..for sure? Actually with a new disease we don't know much "for sure".. And I think the uncertainty in Tony's Fauci's daily presentations reflect that.

Enough of my thoughts for now. Things change week to week. Opinions from 1 month ago must, therefore , be tailored to the current data. AND it gets worse when the virus itself mutates..... Chasing down HIV heart disease ( my fiancť died from this 25 years ago --an MD surgeon) when it mutated every other month or so..was equally as difficult.

LTownZag
04-18-2020, 07:12 PM
When authorities like the CDC eventually make their estimates on total COVID-19 fatalities, it will obviously be much higher than the confirmed number, and the process of getting to that estimated number will be no different from any other historic epidemic. HT to LTownZag who explains the process in greater detail in the previous post.

Thanks, SonuvaZag.

I'm learning this stuff as I go, via articles and podcasts. I noticed the coronavirus situation was being taken seriously by a lot of polymath super-smart nerdy thinkers back in Jan and early February, mostly
via people who are accustomed to thinking abstractly and in exponential term, or with emergent phenomena that aren't just "rounded down" to be assumed to be a variant of a familiar example (flu, cold, etc). I'm always linking my sources, since I don't want to be taken as an authority myself and want people to be able to read these articles and listen to these interviews too. If anyone ever notices that I'm incorrect regarding something relating to this epidemic, please let me know ASAP. The last thing I want to do is spread misinformation.

By the way, Washington is now in the top-10 states for the rate of contagiousness (new cases per each existing case). I wonder if our (thus far) success has lead to complacency?

https://rt.live/

LTownZag
04-18-2020, 07:16 PM
And deaths from pneumonia that set in due to the victim having influenza in 1918 would have still counted as death from influenza because they wouldn't have gotten the pneumonia without the influenza?

Yes, that is correct. Here's a fantastic interview with John Barry, the author of the definitive book on the 1918-1919 pandemic. Many of its victims (more than 1-in-3) had a proximate cause of death of Pneumonia.

HIV/AIDS for example, isn't the proximate cause of death for nearly anyone. It renders the immune system ineffective though.

https://peterattiamd.com/johnbarry/

His book is The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History

sonuvazag
04-18-2020, 08:25 PM
Thanks, SonuvaZag.

I'm learning this stuff as I go, via articles and podcasts. I noticed the coronavirus situation was being taken seriously by a lot of polymath super-smart nerdy thinkers back in Jan and early February, mostly
via people who are accustomed to thinking abstractly and in exponential term, or with emergent phenomena that aren't just "rounded down" to be assumed to be a variant of a familiar example (flu, cold, etc). I'm always linking my sources, since I don't want to be taken as an authority myself and want people to be able to read these articles and listen to these interviews too. If anyone ever notices that I'm incorrect regarding something relating to this epidemic, please let me know ASAP. The last thing I want to do is spread misinformation.

By the way, Washington is now in the top-10 states for the rate of contagiousness (new cases per each existing case). I wonder if our (thus far) success has lead to complacency?

https://rt.live/

That could be the case. Or perhaps it's spreading to less urban communities who aren't taking social distancing as seriously in the first place. In any case, it is a reversal of the trend.
https://i.imgur.com/akHV6Pw.png

MDABE80
04-19-2020, 12:30 AM
Whats the "Y" axis Son??

And then there's this https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/contamination-at-cdc-lab-delayed-rollout-of-coronavirus-tests/ar-BB12Q90W

Accounts for delays in getting a high resolution test with high sensitivity and specificity. I'm hearing this test was 30% sensitive and 30 % specific. Predictive value of the test is horrible.

ZagaZags
04-19-2020, 01:37 AM
Sweden experiment is failing:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

Damned if we do and damned if we don't. Does this mean we need to shut down America until 2021? Not really sure what the answer is. I do know if we don't open up for business soon, we are doomed regardless.

LongIslandZagFan
04-19-2020, 06:32 AM
Damned if we do and damned if we don't. Does this mean we need to shut down America until 2021? Not really sure what the answer is. I do know if we don't open up for business soon, we are doomed regardless.

There will be a midway choice. NY looks like we are slowly getting past this. The models out there show everything bottoming out around June 1... at least for the NYC area. Opening will be slow and gradual and a close eye will be kept on the numbers of people testing positive. Businesses will likely be open this summer, but expect to see some social distancing rules and everyone wearing masks. I do think that there will be enough testing, tracing, and therapeutics in place so that if there is a second "spike" we'll have enough things in place that it will be mitigated much better.

LongIslandZagFan
04-19-2020, 06:39 AM
That could be the case. Or perhaps it's spreading to less urban communities who aren't taking social distancing as seriously in the first place. In any case, it is a reversal of the trend.
https://i.imgur.com/akHV6Pw.png

Stark differences between densely suburban, like LI, compared to area like say Binghamton, population around 110K... note this is based on what my son has seen up there... is compliance with laws/just general safety of using masks. My son, up there, wears a mask in public no matter what... but he says he is the outlier up there... most locals are going about their business without it. Long Island, when I go out, there is like maybe 1 in 300 people that I see not wearing a mask. You've seen this thing get into towns of 2-300 people in the middle of nowhere.. so those places like Binghamton, may eventually catch up on the density as they seemingly never had their guard up.

sonuvazag
04-19-2020, 07:44 AM
Whats the "Y" axis Son??

And then there's this https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/contamination-at-cdc-lab-delayed-rollout-of-coronavirus-tests/ar-BB12Q90W

Accounts for delays in getting a high resolution test with high sensitivity and specificity. I'm hearing this test was 30% sensitive and 30 % specific. Predictive value of the test is horrible.

Effective Reproduction (Rt). I pulled that image from the website LTown linked: https://rt.live/

sonuvazag
04-19-2020, 08:19 AM
Stark differences between densely suburban, like LI, compared to area like say Binghamton, population around 110K... note this is based on what my son has seen up there... is compliance with laws/just general safety of using masks. My son, up there, wears a mask in public no matter what... but he says he is the outlier up there... most locals are going about their business without it. Long Island, when I go out, there is like maybe 1 in 300 people that I see not wearing a mask. You've seen this thing get into towns of 2-300 people in the middle of nowhere.. so those places like Binghamton, may eventually catch up on the density as they seemingly never had their guard up.

Absolutely, there are regional differences and many varieties between urban and rural. I worry about the false sense of security in some places.

And I'm wondering if LTown is right as it pertains to Spokane. I'm seeing masks but they are closer to outliers. Last week, the state of Washington was in the top three states for slowing the spread (almost to 0), so this is a pretty dramatic turnaround.

Subjectively, I would say we had our guard up pretty early in Spokane because of our proximity to Seattle but I wonder if there is a collective letting down of the guard. I don't mean to make this political, but it's just a fact that the liberty types around here are getting increasingly noisy about how eager they are to restart life as normal (I believe this is something we all long for on some level) and I suspect their message hits home more effectively after it's clear we have not been overwhelmed by hospitalizations yet. No one, including me, can be really sure how much of that is a result of the precautions we've taken.

willandi
04-19-2020, 09:50 AM
Absolutely, there are regional differences and many varieties between urban and rural. I worry about the false sense of security in some places.

And I'm wondering if LTown is right as it pertains to Spokane. I'm seeing masks but they are closer to outliers. Last week, the state of Washington was in the top three states for slowing the spread (almost to 0), so this is a pretty dramatic turnaround.

Subjectively, I would say we had our guard up pretty early in Spokane because of our proximity to Seattle but I wonder if there is a collective letting down of the guard. I don't mean to make this political, but it's just a fact that the liberty types around here are getting increasingly noisy about how eager they are to restart life as normal (I believe this is something we all long for on some level) and I suspect their message hits home more effectively after it's clear we have not been overwhelmed by hospitalizations yet. No one, including me, can be really sure how much of that is a result of the precautions we've taken.

When I have ventured to get groceries, here in Deer Park, it seems to be about 50/50 with masks. They did have some N95 masks for sale, $10.00/each. I am wearing a cloth mask, 3-4 layers, made by a friend of ours, as one of a thousand, or so, that she has made and sent to people in need.

I am anxious to get my store open, and as a small store with only 3-4 customers a day, could probably do so safely. I do have enough money to last for another month or two, and would rather not die than make a few dollars.

No one can know if it is precautions or not. The learning curve could be huge.https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/93838194_3055949374425894_1137113340603006976_n.jp g?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=0be424&_nc_ohc=65vg4p-6qMgAX90mBAu&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&oh=58ed04ff993c1c85abb6526dde90d6d9&oe=5EC195DB

RenoZag
04-20-2020, 07:12 AM
Interesting Read: https://onezero.medium.com/apple-and-googles-coronavirus-feature-might-be-an-offer-you-can-t-refuse-90c705541eaa


Apple and Google are hoping to beat that number in the United States and other countries by eventually building basic tracing functionality into the operating system, so that at least some contact tracing features can work even if people donít download an app. (The details are still being worked out.) That might help, but itís likely months away, and even then public health authorities may be fighting an uphill battle to get individuals to opt in to a service whose primary benefit is to others, not themselves.

There is, however, a path by which contact tracing apps might go mainstream even without governments making them mandatory. Itís one that few have yet discussed, and Apple and Google themselves declined to comment on it when asked by OneZero. It involves private entities ó workplaces, schools, and even social gatherings ó telling people they have to use the app if they want to participate.

ďCompanies will require it before youíre allowed to go back to work,Ē predicts Ashkan Soltani, an independent security researcher and former chief technologist at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, in a phone interview. ďYour grocery store could require that you show it before youíre allowed to enter the store.Ē

RenoZag
04-20-2020, 08:08 AM
It’s hard for me not to imagine that somewhere down the road folks are going to have to prove their bona fides when it comes to COVID. If you’re a store owner, a concert venue operator, airline, etc., you will have to have some mechanism that lets you tell the public (with a straight face) that it is safe to visit / use the services.

In the wake of 9-11, the airlines (and the feds) had to demonstrate to the public that it was SAFE to fly.

In the wake of the Tylenol poisoning, consumer products companies developed tamper evident packaging that ensured products were SAFE to use.

Why would we treat the COVID-19 phenomenon any differently ? On my first airplane flight post-2020, I’m not willing to take my fellow passengers’ word that they are infection free. They should have to prove, via some universally accepted metric they are SAFE to travel with. As should I.

Enjoy your week. Looks like Mother Nature will favor my neck of the woods with some terrific Spring weather. I may have to take a spin just to get away from these four walls.

sittingon50
04-20-2020, 09:15 AM
Might be a good time to commune with Lake Tahoe, Reno. Was up there for the 1st time in about 40 years last October & absolutely couldn't believe the traffic. Shouldn't be a problem now (though I guess I'm not up on possible travel restrictions).

Zagceo
04-20-2020, 04:16 PM
UPS Fedex Amazon still have large facilities with thousands of workers coming and going everyday.

Markburn1
04-20-2020, 08:07 PM
Hey Reno. Regarding your last two posts in this thread.

I get that people want to be safe. But, at what cost?

The idea of flattening the curve was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. That has proven to never be in danger. We have gone from an estimated two million deaths to a figure that looks to max out at 60k. If you look at CDC statistics, overall deaths in this country on a week to week basis are almost identical for the past five years. And yet, because of bad models, panicked media and politicians we have caused unbelievable damage to our economy. Worse than that, we have given up our freedom and essentially done nothing to make ourselves safer. The virus will still run it’s course regardless, shelter in place or not.

Eventually we will have to start living again. If we are fearful of enjoying our lives, then what’s the point? If we are going to track everybody and make them out to be outcasts we will have given up a large part of our humanity. There is real danger in having suspicions of everyone you come in contact with.

People with high risk should use common sense and avoid dangerous situations. I get that. Those are the people that should take extra precautions and they are the folks we should have focused on. The rest of us need to go about our daily lives. Are there outliers? Of course. Are there risks? Absolutely. Life is full of risks. But, if we live our lives in fear, what kind of life is that? There will be more viruses. Are we willing to allow the government to tell us what we can wear, where we can worship, who we should associate with, where we can eat, what places we can visit, how we are allowed to get from here to there,etc.?

The Google thing is a really bad idea.

I believe if we give up doing the things we like to do because of an over abundance of caution, life won’t be worth living anyway.

I know there are people that feel differently. This is just my opinion.

God Bless. Mark.

willandi
04-20-2020, 09:11 PM
Hey Reno. Regarding your last two posts in this thread.

I get that people want to be safe. But, at what cost?

The idea of flattening the curve was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. That has proven to never be in danger. We have gone from an estimated two million deaths to a figure that looks to max out at 60k. If you look at CDC statistics, overall deaths in this country on a week to week basis are almost identical for the past five years. And yet, because of bad models, panicked media and politicians we have caused unbelievable damage to our economy. Worse than that, we have given up our freedom and essentially done nothing to make ourselves safer. The virus will still run it’s course regardless, shelter in place or not.

Eventually we will have to start living again. If we are fearful of enjoying our lives, then what’s the point? If we are going to track everybody and make them out to be outcasts we will have given up a large part of our humanity. There is real danger in having suspicions of everyone you come in contact with.

People with high risk should use common sense and avoid dangerous situations. I get that. Those are the people that should take extra precautions and they are the folks we should have focused on. The rest of us need to go about our daily lives. Are there outliers? Of course. Are there risks? Absolutely. Life is full of risks. But, if we live our lives in fear, what kind of life is that? There will be more viruses. Are we willing to allow the government to tell us what we can wear, where we can worship, who we should associate with, where we can eat, what places we can visit, how we are allowed to get from here to there,etc.?

The Google thing is a really bad idea.

I believe if we give up doing the things we like to do because of an over abundance of caution, life won’t be worth living anyway.

I know there are people that feel differently. This is just my opinion.

God Bless. Mark.

From another section in the MBB:

"For example, as of March 31, the Italian city of Nembro had 158 deaths in 2020 as opposed to 35 on average in the previous five years. But Nembro had only counted 31 confirmed deaths from COVID-19. So 31 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the town, but over 120 more deaths (4X confimred deaths) than the same timeframe in the previous five years with no other reasonable explanation for the discrepancy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ing-death-toll"

sonuvazag
04-20-2020, 09:31 PM
Hey Reno. Regarding your last two posts in this thread.

I get that people want to be safe. But, at what cost?

The idea of flattening the curve was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. That has proven to never be in danger. We have gone from an estimated two million deaths to a figure that looks to max out at 60k. If you look at CDC statistics, overall deaths in this country on a week to week basis are almost identical for the past five years. And yet, because of bad models, panicked media and politicians we have caused unbelievable damage to our economy. Worse than that, we have given up our freedom and essentially done nothing to make ourselves safer. The virus will still run it’s course regardless, shelter in place or not.

Eventually we will have to start living again. If we are fearful of enjoying our lives, then what’s the point? If we are going to track everybody and make them out to be outcasts we will have given up a large part of our humanity. There is real danger in having suspicions of everyone you come in contact with.

People with high risk should use common sense and avoid dangerous situations. I get that. Those are the people that should take extra precautions and they are the folks we should have focused on. The rest of us need to go about our daily lives. Are there outliers? Of course. Are there risks? Absolutely. Life is full of risks. But, if we live our lives in fear, what kind of life is that? There will be more viruses. Are we willing to allow the government to tell us what we can wear, where we can worship, who we should associate with, where we can eat, what places we can visit, how we are allowed to get from here to there,etc.?

The Google thing is a really bad idea.

I believe if we give up doing the things we like to do because of an over abundance of caution, life won’t be worth living anyway.

I know there are people that feel differently. This is just my opinion.

God Bless. Mark.

Kind of weird to see this counterfactual that we proved we didn't need the interventions, something that could only be known had we not implemented them and had an acceptable outcome. Since we only have the reality where we did intervene, what we know for sure is that our interventions were either not needed or a successful deterrent from a rash of hellish outcomes that has happened in some regions around the world. (And I guess we just don't count New York).

I don't believe it's been conclusively proven either way and, without knowing the level of immunity we have collectively achieved, I'm not certain we are past the worst of it.

willandi
04-20-2020, 09:48 PM
https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/93838194_3055949374425894_1137113340603006976_n.jp g?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=0be424&_nc_ohc=65vg4p-6qMgAX8JC37D&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&oh=2f32d75e24b2013871046b65773c61e7&oe=5EC58A5B

sonuvazag
04-20-2020, 09:57 PM
If you look at CDC statistics, overall deaths in this country on a week to week basis are almost identical for the past five years.
There are so much data produced by the CDC, I would like to see your link for this claim if you can provide it. Regardless of its truth, it doesn't appear to be true for a region that is hit hard by COVID-19. Here is a chart of the mortality by month in New York City:
https://i.imgur.com/HO02EwX.png
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

They have never in the last 20 years had more deaths in a month, including 911. AND THEY HAVE BEEN SOCIAL DISTANCING FOR OVER A MONTH which means there is the very real potential this could have been even worse for them without interventions. We don't know.

What seems likely to me is that what has happened to New York was because its population density made the rate of reproduction so high, the virus got around before the city's interventions could prevent the chaos. But it seems like the same chaos can still potentially happen in other regions in the US on a different timeline.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 04:56 AM
Ironically, the likely reason the numbers may be "on par", which until I see the data I am not 100% buying, is because deaths from auto accidents, especially in urban areas, has been more than halved.

Markburn1
04-21-2020, 06:59 AM
On the CDC’s Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance portal you can see the number of deaths each week, for the past six years, due to flu and pneumonia. One of their graphs shows the percent of all deaths caused by flu and pneumonia.

The other interesting feature is that you can download the number of deaths, from all causes, by week from the same time period. That feature makes for some interesting reading.

The above is from a friend of mine. Go to Fluview on CDC website.

The number of deaths are consistent week to week over a five year span.

But, if that is all you are focusing on from my previous post, you really missed the point.

I will not carry an identifier. I will not be tracked. I will live life to the fullest and manage my own risk. Just as others that are more at risk should manage theirs.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 07:45 AM
On the CDC’s Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance portal you can see the number of deaths each week, for the past six years, due to flu and pneumonia. One of their graphs shows the percent of all deaths caused by flu and pneumonia.

The other interesting feature is that you can download the number of deaths, from all causes, by week from the same time period. That feature makes for some interesting reading.

The above is from a friend of mine. Go to Fluview on CDC website.

The number of deaths are consistent week to week over a five year span.

But, if that is all you are focusing on from my previous post, you really missed the point.

I will not carry an identifier. I will not be tracked. I will live life to the fullest and manage my own risk. Just as others that are more at risk should manage theirs.

I enjoy data, especially if it can potentially change my understanding of something so I appreciate you pointing me in the right direction.

As for your desire to live to the fullest and free of tracking, OK then.

For those who know this is your point of view, you'll be seen as someone who has a higher risk of being a disease vector. So your choice will have both upside and downside, which I already trust you understand. I don't know what else you really expect anyone to say.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 08:02 AM
On the CDC’s Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance portal you can see the number of deaths each week, for the past six years, due to flu and pneumonia. One of their graphs shows the percent of all deaths caused by flu and pneumonia.

The other interesting feature is that you can download the number of deaths, from all causes, by week from the same time period. That feature makes for some interesting reading.

The above is from a friend of mine. Go to Fluview on CDC website.

The number of deaths are consistent week to week over a five year span.

But, if that is all you are focusing on from my previous post, you really missed the point.

I will not carry an identifier. I will not be tracked. I will live life to the fullest and manage my own risk. Just as others that are more at risk should manage theirs.

Appreciate your viewpoint... but assume you understand the threat you pose to others, which could be deadly to them, with your personal choices and also understand that by your actions it may put them at risk without their knowledge or consent, and act accordingly.

Markburn1
04-21-2020, 09:17 AM
Let me address my risk to others.

What is the goal now? Let’s stipulate that lockdowns succeeded in flattening the curve. I have my doubts but let’s go with that. That process was never going to eliminate the virus and wasn’t intended to do so. Essentially we stretched out the progress of the virus. So now, everyone is a potential vector until we build herd immunity. If the goal is to eliminate the chance of being infected, how long will you be willing to shelter? The chances of an effective vaccine appearing are pretty slim. Epidemiologists have been working on these types of viruses for decades to find one. The flu still claims tens of thousands of lives in America every year with a vaccine.

Let’s say we both show up at the grocery store at the same time. You know me and avoid me. Which of the dozens of other people pose a risk? Are you going to check their government approved card? How long has it been since that person has been checked? Should everyone be forced to be checked every two weeks? What if they were exposed between checks? Point is, everyone is a potential vector.

I certainly won’t visit my mother in her assisted living home. Those people are at high risk. My elderly neighbors with underlying health issues stay at home and let my wife shop for them or let her wipe down the home deliveries before they take them inside. Those types of people are managing their risk differently than I and rightly so. Just as they should even with the flu.

When are we going to stop taking the “ experts” predictions at face value? The IHME report that caused the initial panic was off by orders of magnitude. It factored in shelter in place and predicted over 2.2 million deaths. Each time we get close to opening back up we are told the danger is still too great and we acquiesce for another two weeks. When will we be willing to live instead of being afraid to die?

I wish you all good health. I wish this type of disease didn’t happen. The reality is that it will always exist in one form or another. It has to be managed surgically instead of shutting down the whole society.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 10:25 AM
Let me address my risk to others.

What is the goal now? Letís stipulate that lockdowns succeeded in flattening the curve. I have my doubts but letís go with that. That process was never going to eliminate the virus and wasnít intended to do so. Essentially we stretched out the progress of the virus. So now, everyone is a potential vector until we build herd immunity. If the goal is to eliminate the chance of being infected, how long will you be willing to shelter? The chances of an effective vaccine appearing are pretty slim. Epidemiologists have been working on these types of viruses for decades to find one. The flu still claims tens of thousands of lives in America every year with a vaccine.

Letís say we both show up at the grocery store at the same time. You know me and avoid me. Which of the dozens of other people pose a risk? Are you going to check their government approved card? How long has it been since that person has been checked? Should everyone be forced to be checked every two weeks? What if they were exposed between checks? Point is, everyone is a potential vector.

I certainly wonít visit my mother in her assisted living home. Those people are at high risk. My elderly neighbors with underlying health issues stay at home and let my wife shop for them or let her wipe down the home deliveries before they take them inside. Those types of people are managing their risk differently than I and rightly so. Just as they should even with the flu.

When are we going to stop taking the ď expertsĒ predictions at face value? The IHME report that caused the initial panic was off by orders of magnitude. It factored in shelter in place and predicted over 2.2 million deaths. Each time we get close to opening back up we are told the danger is still too great and we acquiesce for another two weeks. When will we be willing to live instead of being afraid to die?

I wish you all good health. I wish this type of disease didnít happen. The reality is that it will always exist in one form or another. It has to be managed surgically instead of shutting down the whole society.

Well stated. The social contract we all have lived under is rife with risk, but because there is a new virus, we forget that.

Studies in Santa Clara county, amongst a growing number of others, will I believe eventually show that this virus, with no vaccine, has a mortality rate similar to that of the flu, which does have a vaccine.

We have forever lived with the risk of communicable disease and a hundred other factors in our daily lives that can kill us.

Unfortunately for economy and the millions who will now deal with distress, depression, increased rates of suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence and all the other issue that will come as a result of the shutdown, I firmly believe that the cure is going to be much worse than the disease.

Let me admit, I don't know what the alternative would have been to flatten the curve, so to speak, but I do believe a more thoughtful, nuanced approach can be found for the next time the world is presented with a crisis like this.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 11:28 AM
Well stated. The social contract we all have lived under is rife with risk, but because there is a new virus, we forget that.

Studies in Santa Clara county, amongst a growing number of others, will I believe eventually show that this virus, with no vaccine, has a mortality rate similar to that of the flu, which does have a vaccine.

We have forever lived with the risk of communicable disease and a hundred other factors in our daily lives that can kill us.

Unfortunately for economy and the millions who will now deal with distress, depression, increased rates of suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence and all the other issue that will come as a result of the shutdown, I firmly believe that the cure is going to be much worse than the disease.

Let me admit, I don't know what the alternative would have been to flatten the curve, so to speak, but I do believe a more thoughtful, nuanced approach can be found for the next time the world is presented with a crisis like this.


Estimates for the flu run about 1/10th of 1% of a mortality... unless a vast majority of people are 100% symptomless... I don't see the numbers ever getting that low, especially considering the case to mortality rate right now is hovering around 7%. That being said... on average about 500-600K people die from the flu yearly. This virus has killed almost 1/3 of that number... in 2.5 months.

For the record, Sweden is an example of "surgically shutting down" and their death rate from this is 10x higher than similar countries around them.

Speaking as someone with friends on the front lines, with a wife who has had 5-6 students with parents or grandparents dying from this just in the last 2-3 weeks.. NY/LI was an exact example of NOT flattening the curve fast enough. Systems got 100% overwhelmed. Sadly, the next experiment if going to be Georgia... expect deaths to skyrocket and their health system to be overwhelmed. The showed up to the party late and are leaving early and it is likely not going to end well for them. I don't know the calculus it took to decide to open everything up when you literally had the most people from your state die the same day. I really don't get it.

Better question would be this... Do you think it will help the economy when we end up right back where we are now in 3-6 months... likely at a much worse level? The 1918 flu is a primer on what not to do.... but history is repeating itself it seems.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 12:09 PM
Well stated. The social contract we all have lived under is rife with risk, but because there is a new virus, we forget that.

Studies in Santa Clara county, amongst a growing number of others, will I believe eventually show that this virus, with no vaccine, has a mortality rate similar to that of the flu, which does have a vaccine.

We have forever lived with the risk of communicable disease and a hundred other factors in our daily lives that can kill us.

Unfortunately for economy and the millions who will now deal with distress, depression, increased rates of suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence and all the other issue that will come as a result of the shutdown, I firmly believe that the cure is going to be much worse than the disease.

Let me admit, I don't know what the alternative would have been to flatten the curve, so to speak, but I do believe a more thoughtful, nuanced approach can be found for the next time the world is presented with a crisis like this.
So, I'm curious if there is a hypothetical infection fatality rate where you and Markburn would say, "No, the contagion is actually too deadly for my community to go about business as usual."

former1dog
04-21-2020, 12:11 PM
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/20/l-a-covid-19-antibody-study-adds-further-support-for-a-higher-than-suspected-infection-rate/


A new study (http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328) conducted by the University of Southern California along with the LA County Department of Public Health indicates the presence of antibodies for COVID-19 in between 2.8 and 5.6% of the population of LA County, suggesting that between 221,000 and 442,000 individuals had the infection — up to 55 times more people than have been confirmed via testing.

https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/17/stanford-study-more-than-48000-santa-clara-county-residents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus


The number of coronavirus infections in Santa Clara County could be between 50 and 80 times higher than the officially confirmed count, preliminary results from a community-based study by a team of Stanford University researchers indicates.

Based on these studies, the infection rate is 50 to 80 times higher. For arguments sake, lets just say its half of that, or 25 times more widespread than what is being reported.


So the equation would be: (Numbers are for US cases)

Mortality Rate = Total Deaths / Total Infected(25)

.2 % = 44752/811,478(25) Rate if infection studies are off by half
.1% = 44752/811,478(50) Rate at the low end of the infection studies
.07 % = 44752/811,478(80) Rate at the high end of the infection studies


Taking into account the lack of a vaccine and the lack of any herd immunity, I would say there is a chance that Covid 19 will ultimately have a lower mortality than the flu.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 12:16 PM
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/20/l-a-covid-19-antibody-study-adds-further-support-for-a-higher-than-suspected-infection-rate/



https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/17/stanford-study-more-than-48000-santa-clara-county-residents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus



Based on these studies, the infection rate is 50 to 80 times higher. For arguments sake, lets just say its half of that, or 25 times more widespread than what is being reported.


So the equation would be: (Numbers are for US cases)

Mortality Rate = Total Deaths / Total Infected(25)

.2 % = 44752/811,478(25) Rate if infection studies are off by half
.1% = 44752/811,478(50) Rate at the low end of the infection studies
.07 % = 44752/811,478(80) Rate at the high end of the infection studies


Taking into account the lack of a vaccine and the lack of any herd immunity, I would say there is a chance that Covid 19 will ultimately have a lower mortality than the flu.

Perhaps, but I think that is wishful thinking. I'll personally wait for two things:

a) A proven anti-body test that doesn't have a 10+% false positive rate
b) studies verifying that having it in the past equals immunity.

Neither thing is there yet.

Also, if what your saying is truly the case... show me one flu year where the seasonal flu overwhelmed the entire health system of major cities. Show me one flu season in the last 50 years that would leave anywhere from 20-50 people dead in a nursing home... all over the place.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 12:18 PM
So, I'm curious if there is a hypothetical infection fatalaty rate where you and Markburn would say, "No, the contagion is actually too deadly for my community to go about business as usual."

We all walk around on a daily basis with all kinds of risks. Right now, I'm following the advice of my local health officials. I try to be a good citizen.

That doesn't mean the decision I made to follow that advice will ultimately play out to be wise. Nor does it mean the advice I followed was wise either.

I would speculate that if it turns out that the mortality rate is ultimately less than 3 % for Utah, I would say the measures that have been taken in my state were more harmful than good.

We, as a society, prior to this outbreak played russian roulette on a daily basis. Not many people were sheltered in place from all the inherent risks.

Let me turn the tables and as you the same?

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 12:24 PM
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/20/l-a-covid-19-antibody-study-adds-further-support-for-a-higher-than-suspected-infection-rate/



https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/17/stanford-study-more-than-48000-santa-clara-county-residents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus



Based on these studies, the infection rate is 50 to 80 times higher. For arguments sake, lets just say its half of that, or 25 times more widespread than what is being reported.


So the equation would be: (Numbers are for US cases)

Mortality Rate = Total Deaths / Total Infected(25)

.2 % = 44752/811,478(25) Rate if infection studies are off by half
.1% = 44752/811,478(50) Rate at the low end of the infection studies
.07 % = 44752/811,478(80) Rate at the high end of the infection studies


Taking into account the lack of a vaccine and the lack of any herd immunity, I would say there is a chance that Covid 19 will ultimately have a lower mortality than the flu.

I'm aware of these studies. I'm also aware that 1.4% of Nembro's total population died in a three-month period compared to the 0.3% that typically died in the same timeframe. For the time being, the Nembro statistics are a lived phenomenon that I'm not yet willing to dismiss in light of these serology tests have yet to stand up to scrutiny.

All that aside, I asked the question hypothetically. Is there a IFR where you'd say it's too deadly or is it pointless to think there's a possible reality where you'd agree it's wise to shelter in place?

former1dog
04-21-2020, 12:25 PM
Perhaps, but I think that is wishful thinking. I'll personally wait for two things:

a) A proven anti-body test that doesn't have a 10+% false positive rate
b) studies verifying that having it in the past equals immunity.

Neither thing is there yet.

Also, if what your saying is truly the case... show me one flu year where the seasonal flu overwhelmed the entire health system of major cities. Show me one flu season in the last 50 years that would leave anywhere from 20-50 people dead in a nursing home... all over the place.

LIZ,

I'll ask you to kindly remember that I didn't/am not arguing that no measures were necessary. I'm arguing that it is LIKELY we're going to find out the measures we have taken are more damaging than the virus.

Nuance takes creative thought. It is likely that all the measures taken in New York were probably necessary. Those measures in Murray, UT? Not so much.

We are all speculating. My speculation has a little bit of science behind it, with the results being remarkably similar in two different studies so far. I think there may be more than 2 studies, but I don't feel like looking them up.

I hope you can acknowledge the impact the shut down is having on millions of people, not just economically, but to their health.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 12:27 PM
We all walk around on a daily basis with all kinds of risks. Right now, I'm following the advice of my local health officials. I try to be a good citizen.

That doesn't mean the decision I made to follow that advice will ultimately play out to be wise. Nor does it mean the advice I followed was wise either.

I would speculate that if it turns out that the mortality rate is ultimately less than 3 % for Utah, I would say the measures that have been taken in my state were more harmful than good.

We, as a society, prior to this outbreak played russian roulette on a daily basis. Not many people were sheltered in place from all the inherent risks.

Let me turn the tables and as you the same?

How many people do you know that have been infected? What is the rate per 100K people in where you live? How many people, directly or indirectly do you know that have died.

My answers:

4 people i personally know that have been or are infected
1872 per 100K people as of yesterday
8 people... not all were old.

What is the value of any human life? What is the value of 20,000 lives? 100K lives? What is the cutoff for the economy? What is the bar to make it "worth it"?

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 12:28 PM
We all walk around on a daily basis with all kinds of risks. Right now, I'm following the advice of my local health officials. I try to be a good citizen.

That doesn't mean the decision I made to follow that advice will ultimately play out to be wise. Nor does it mean the advice I followed was wise either.

I would speculate that if it turns out that the mortality rate is ultimately less than 3 % for Utah, I would say the measures that have been taken in my state were more harmful than good.

We, as a society, prior to this outbreak played russian roulette on a daily basis. Not many people were sheltered in place from all the inherent risks.

Let me turn the tables and as you the same?

3%? 30 times more deadly than the seasonal flu and more deadly than the spanish flu? Wow. I just can't imagine there would be any way for life to go on as normal in such a scenario.

My breaking point is much much lower, like 0.2 maybe 0.25%.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 12:30 PM
LIZ,

I'll ask you to kindly remember that I didn't/am not arguing that no measures were necessary. I'm arguing that it is LIKELY we're going to find out the measures we have taken are more damaging than the virus.

Nuance takes creative thought. It is likely that all the measures taken in New York were probably necessary. Those measures in Murray, UT? Not so much.

We are all speculating. My speculation has a little bit of science behind it, with the results being remarkably similar in two different studies so far. I think there may be more than 2 studies, but I don't feel like looking them up.

I hope you can acknowledge the impact the shut down is having on millions of people, not just economically, but to their health.

This is getting its roots into smaller and smaller cities and towns. Don't take what you currently have for granted. I get it... but not doing anything would have increased the death rate likely 10 fold.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 12:33 PM
This is getting its roots into smaller and smaller cities and towns. Don't take what you currently have for granted. I get it... but not doing anything would have increased the death rate likely 10 fold.

Im not arguing that we should have done nothing. Im arguing that we collectively likely overdid it. Again, probably not for densely populated NY.

I think that it is likely the data is going to support my argument. Hopefully we learn and have a more nuanced approach next time.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 12:35 PM
My breaking point is much much lower, like 0.2 maybe 0.25%.

On November 1 ,2019, what was your chance of walking out your door in the morning and never walking back in?

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 12:36 PM
Im not arguing that we should have done nothing. Im arguing that we collectively likely overdid it. Again, probably not for densely populated NY.

I think that it is likely the data is going to support my argument. Hopefully we learn and have a more nuanced approach next time.

A more nuanced approach may have been possible with an accelerated effort to get testing up to speed sooner as it was in South Korea. And would have saved thousands of lives.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 12:40 PM
On November 1 ,2019, what was your chance of walking out your door in the morning and never walking back in?
Pretty much the same as it was on October 31, 2019. What's your point? And I've barely given a thought to the personal risk involved here so much as the impact I might have as a spreader of the virus.

I'm interested in the society-wide impact of a unique virus. The daily risk we individually encounter is irrelevant when a unique factor that can quickly spread through human interaction comes into play.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 12:42 PM
A more nuanced approach may have been possible with an accelerated effort to get testing up to speed sooner as it was in South Korea. And would have saved thousands of lives.

I agree that testing then and now has been a problem. I think fair minded people can see that testing was inhibited by several factors, some within our control and others not.

In the future, I hope we can overcome the issue, but I don't have extreme confidence because of all the factors that go into developing a test for a brand new disease.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 12:49 PM
I agree that testing then and now has been a problem. I think fair minded people can see that testing was inhibited by several factors, some within our control and others not.

In the future, I hope we can overcome the issue, but I don't have extreme confidence because of all the factors that go into developing a test for a brand new disease.

It's aspirational, but clearly possible.

In the event that the serology tests prove out, you're suggesting we should have been more nuanced despite not having that foreknowledge, especially when in fact we knew hospital systems had the potential to be overrun not just as a theory but because it was something that had already happened, including in small towns.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 12:51 PM
Pretty much the same as it was on October 31, 2019. What's your point? And I've barely given a thought to the personal risk involved here so much as the impact I might have as a spreader of the virus.

I'm interested in the society-wide impact of a unique virus. The daily risk we individually encounter is irrelevant when a unique factor that can quickly spread through human interaction comes into play.

OK, on November 1, 2019 what was the risk of your actions, conscious or not, of preventing someone else from walking in their door at the end of the day.

My point is simply this. There is a significant health risk to stopping life as we know it entirely, which is what we have effectively done. Virus or not, I'm certain you understand that?

The hippocratic oath says first, do no harm. The nation has been given a medical prescription and that tenant may have been broken.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 12:53 PM
I still can't believe 3%. In the event one-fourth of the United States was infected, that would be 2.475 million deaths.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 12:56 PM
It's aspirational, but clearly possible.

In the event that the serology tests prove out, you're suggesting we should have been more nuanced despite not having that foreknowledge, especially when in fact we knew hospital systems had the potential to be overrun not just as a theory but because it was something that had already happened, including in small towns.

Obviously, the hays in the barn. We can't have a more nuanced approach. That doesn't mean their couldn't have been one.

All we can do now is analyze the severity of the disease. What actions were taken and how we possibly could have done better, especially in the whole ruining our economy department.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 12:58 PM
OK, on November 1, 2019 what was the risk of your actions, conscious or not, of preventing someone else from walking in their door at the end of the day.

My point is simply this. There is a significant health risk to stopping life as we know it entirely, which is what we have effectively done. Virus or not, I'm certain you understand that?

The hippocratic oath says first, do no harm. The nation has been given a medical prescription and that tenant may have been broken.

You don't seem to be acknowledging is that when a lot of people get sick at the same time, the economy is also disrupted, but in a way that can't be remedied with stimulus money. It's not as simple as having it one way or the other.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:01 PM
You don't seem to be acknowledging is that when a lot of people get sick at the same time, the economy is also disrupted, but in a way that can't be remedied with stimulus money. It's not as simple as having it one way or the other.

We have identical objections to one anothers arguments.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 01:04 PM
You don't seem to be acknowledging is that when a lot of people get sick at the same time, the economy is also disrupted. It's not as simple as having it one way or the other.

This exactly. NY/LI was behind the curve early... like Louisiana... like Detroit.

I really dread to see what happens in Georgia... I got a sneaking suspicion it is going to explode like a wildfire if people start going out in public the way the governor wants them to.

A follow-up question on this for F1D. What good is opening up if people like me have no interest in being anywhere near other people I don't personally know? I hate going to the grocery store during this thing... it is like playing with fire, but necessary. You couldn't pay me to sit in a restaurant right now or in the next 2-3 months for that matter. Not until new cases is dropping to close to zero.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 01:07 PM
We have identical objections to one anothers arguments.

I also don't think our thinking is very different. But we obviously have vastly different notions about what level of death and sickness we are willing to tolerate to let society be open and free.

How many lives do you think are going to be lost due to the economy being shut down? To me the number is certainly nonzero but I just can't visualize it even being even close to the 40,000 we've already lost or, more to your point, the additional hypothetical number we would lose if we never shut anything down.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:08 PM
This exactly. NY/LI was behind the curve early... like Louisiana... like Detroit.

I really dread to see what happens in Georgia... I got a sneaking suspicion it is going to explode like a wildfire if people start going out in public the way the governor wants them to.

A follow-up question on this for F1D. What good is opening up if people like me have no interest in being anywhere near other people I don't personally know? I hate going to the grocery store during this thing... it is like playing with fire, but necessary. You couldn't pay me to sit in a restaurant right now or in the next 2-3 months for that matter. Not until new cases is dropping to close to zero.

I love this question!

You, LIZF (one of my favorite people on this board and probably in my top 100 overall) should be allowed to sit at home!! That is your right. (See what I did there)

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:14 PM
I also don't think our thinking is very different. But we obviously have vastly different notions about what level of death and sickness we are willing to tolerate to let society be open and free.

How many lives do you think are going to be lost due to the economy being shut down? To me the number is certainly nonzero but I just can't visualize it even being even close to the 40,000 we've already lost.

Good question. A number that we're likely not going to be able to quantify accurately.

Did Joe Smith commit suicide because of the economy or because he suffered from severe depression? Did Kenny beat his child into a coma because of economic stress or because he's a criminal psychopath? Did Mary die of alcohol poisoning because she was an alcoholic or because she lost her job?

I do know my friend who's a doctor on the front line and is much closer to your opinion on this issue than to mine, is extremely concerned about the health risks due to the shutdown.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 01:15 PM
This exactly. NY/LI was behind the curve early... like Louisiana... like Detroit.

I really dread to see what happens in Georgia... I got a sneaking suspicion it is going to explode like a wildfire if people start going out in public the way the governor wants them to.

A follow-up question on this for F1D. What good is opening up if people like me have no interest in being anywhere near other people I don't personally know? I hate going to the grocery store during this thing... it is like playing with fire, but necessary. You couldn't pay me to sit in a restaurant right now or in the next 2-3 months for that matter. Not until new cases is dropping to close to zero.

This goes back to Reno's post and Markburn's objection to it. I'm different from Markburn in the sense I would love to be able to test myself regularly to know my antibody status and would prefer to have my status be known by all the people I come in contact with, especially if there was an app that could do it anonymously.

And no, in general, i don't like smartphones and all their tracking features, so this is an exception to my rule.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 01:16 PM
I love this question!

You, LIZF (one of my favorite people on this board and probably in my top 100 overall) should be allowed to sit at home!! That is your right. (See what I did there)

Thanks F1D and same back at ya'.

I think the point is that most people in urban/suburban areas where we all know at least one person that has died or lost loved ones... is that you can open up... but without any reassurances that this thing is remotely under control... opeing ain't worth a darn.

Again I want to loop back to one thing that really bothers me about the whole argument of "we've gone to far" is that it discounts the lives lost. It discounts the countless hours nurses/doctors/emts have put in over the last month and basically does a cost benefit analysis on human lives and human suffering. What IS the bar for this?

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 01:17 PM
Good question. A number that we're likely not going to be able to quantify accurately.

Did Joe Smith commit suicide because of the economy or because he suffered from severe depression? Did Kenny beat his child into a coma because of economic stress or because he's a criminal psychopath? Did Mary die of alcohol poisoning because she was an alcoholic or because she lost her job?

I do know my friend who's a doctor on the front line and is much closer to your opinion on this issue than to mine, is extremely concerned about the health risks due to the shutdown.

Trust me, it's not that I'm not concerned about these factors and, while it may be difficult to quantify, I absolutely believe it should be attempted. One point of contention is that we just haven't landed yet on a solid agreement of how much risk there is on either side of the equation.

kitzbuel
04-21-2020, 01:18 PM
Well stated. The social contract we all have lived under is rife with risk, but because there is a new virus, we forget that.

Studies in Santa Clara county, amongst a growing number of others, will I believe eventually show that this virus, with no vaccine, has a mortality rate similar to that of the flu, which does have a vaccine.

We have forever lived with the risk of communicable disease and a hundred other factors in our daily lives that can kill us.

Unfortunately for economy and the millions who will now deal with distress, depression, increased rates of suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence and all the other issue that will come as a result of the shutdown, I firmly believe that the cure is going to be much worse than the disease.

Let me admit, I don't know what the alternative would have been to flatten the curve, so to speak, but I do believe a more thoughtful, nuanced approach can be found for the next time the world is presented with a crisis like this.

It should have been found this time. There was plenty of time. Germany has done a much better job at managing the whole crisis and are already starting to open their economy.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 01:21 PM
I love this question!

You, LIZF (one of my favorite people on this board and probably in my top 100 overall) should be allowed to sit at home!! That is your right. (See what I did there)

Yes, the freedom to make this choice here is good, but we still end up with a pretty sour economy that will need federal stimulus.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:23 PM
Trust me, it's not that I'm not concerned about these factors and, while it may be difficult to quantify, I absolutely believe it should be attempted. One point of contention is that we just haven't landed yet on a solid agreement of how much risk there is on either side of the equation.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/09/suicide-and-the-economy/279961/


Roy was one of at least 40,000 Americans who took their own lives that year and the next, the two-year span that suicide rate spiked to its highest recorded level ever: more than 150 per 1 million annually.

God help us. I hope it doesn't get this bad. I guess some quantification studies have been attempted for past financial crises.

That number would be way worse than the virus, just from suicide. I hope we don't get anywhwere close to it.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:25 PM
It should have been found this time. There was plenty of time. Germany has done a much better job at managing the whole crisis and are already starting to open their economy.

Kitz, I havent read anything about Germany. Is there a primer you would recommend, providing an overview of their efforts?

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 01:31 PM
Thanks F1D and same back at ya'.

I think the point is that most people in urban/suburban areas where we all know at least one person that has died or lost loved ones... is that you can open up... but without any reassurances that this thing is remotely under control... opeing ain't worth a darn.

Again I want to loop back to one thing that really bothers me about the whole argument of "we've gone to far" is that it discounts the lives lost. It discounts the countless hours nurses/doctors/emts have put in over the last month and basically does a cost benefit analysis on human lives and human suffering. What IS the bar for this?

I agree, it is demoralizing to see people who think what's been done so far, in an effort to save lives, hasn't made a difference or made things worse. But I think that's F1D's argument essentially, and it's a sincere belief on his part, that the economic freeze has unappreciated consequences that are even worse.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:31 PM
Again I want to loop back to one thing that really bothers me about the whole argument of "we've gone to far" is that it discounts the lives lost. It discounts the countless hours nurses/doctors/emts have put in over the last month and basically does a cost benefit analysis on human lives and human suffering. What IS the bar for this?

Two of my best friends are doctors. I have two nieces and a nephew in law who are nurses. My mother is 91 years old. I appreciate all that these people have done and the risk to our elderly and high risk population. So, I'm with you.

New York is still reporting the highest numbers of new infections and the highest number of deaths on a daily basis. You guys should be locked the #### down!

In Utah, we have a .8 % mortality rate with only 3000 total infections and the curve flattening or flattened. What is good for Utah is different than what is good for NY. Nuance.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:33 PM
I agree, it is demoralizing to see people who think what we've done so far, in an effort to save lives, hasn't made a difference or made things worse. But I think that's F1D's argument essentially, and it's a sincere belief on his part, that the economic freeze has unappreciated consequences.

Not in the least. Please review and reassess.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 01:36 PM
Not in the least. Please review and reassess.

I thought your point was that the cure is worse than the disease. No? Markburn said it made no difference. You said it made the patient worse.


My point is simply this. There is a significant health risk to stopping life as we know it entirely, which is what we have effectively done. Virus or not, I'm certain you understand that?

The hippocratic oath says first, do no harm. The nation has been given a medical prescription and that tenant may have been broken.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 01:41 PM
Two of my best friends are doctors. I have two nieces and a nephew in law who are nurses. My mother is 91 years old. I appreciate all that these people have done and the risk to our elderly and high risk population. So, I'm with you.

New York is still reporting the highest numbers of new infections and the highest number of deaths on a daily basis. You guys should be locked the #### down!

In Utah, we have a .8 % mortality rate with only 3000 total infections and the curve flattening or flattened. What is good for Utah is different than what is good for NY. Nuance.


But the fact that time was wasted at the beginning of this and that we didn't and still don't have adequate testing supplies... a nuanced approach just plain wasn't and isn't realistic. How would UT control people coming into to state... ones that may be infected and spreading the virus? We are a wide open country and towns as small as 100 people are coming down with cases. Look at Sioux City... it is running OUT OF CONTROL and actually threatening the food supply chain. Nuanced doesn't always work when everything ends up being interconnected.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:43 PM
I thought you're point was that the cure is worse than the disease. No?


You're understanding what I mean by the cure, correct? Entirely shutting down our economy, which is what we have effectively done?

Do you think I actually meant we shouldn't have taken any measures? How did you get that from any of my posts?

Do you actually gather from any of my posts a lack of appreciation of folks on the front lines? How did you get that from anything I wrote?

Did you miss my point that a more thoughtful approach could have been executed in terms of public policy reactions?

In the past, it seems you have avoided the slippery slope debate technique. Maybe not today?

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:47 PM
How would UT control people coming into to state... ones that may be infected and spreading the virus?

I havent been traveling, but anecdotally I recall hearing something recently that Utah was doing exactly that both on the highways and at the airport. I'll have to look it up, but I thought they were taking tempartures, asking questions and enforcing quarantines on folks coming into the state.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 01:50 PM
Two of my best friends are doctors. I have two nieces and a nephew in law who are nurses. My mother is 91 years old. I appreciate all that these people have done and the risk to our elderly and high risk population. So, I'm with you.

New York is still reporting the highest numbers of new infections and the highest number of deaths on a daily basis. You guys should be locked the #### down!

In Utah, we have a .8 % mortality rate with only 3000 total infections and the curve flattening or flattened. What is good for Utah is different than what is good for NY. Nuance.

That's good. Are you confident your testing is robust? If it's not, that's probably the biggest factor that would be holding your governor back.

LongIslandZagFan
04-21-2020, 01:51 PM
I havent been traveling, but anecdotally I recall hearing something recently that Utah was doing exactly that both on the highways and at the airport. I'll have to look it up, but I thought they were taking tempartures, asking questions and enforcing quarantines on folks coming into the state.

5 days where you likely have no symptoms. Way to easy for people to get into the state even by accident with the virus.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:55 PM
That's good. Are you confident your testing is robust? If it's not, that's probably the biggest factor that would be holding your governor back.

Utah has excellent health care providers and I have a lot of confidence in our system.

former1dog
04-21-2020, 01:57 PM
Have a blessed and wonderful evening my friends. I wish nothing but good health, prosperity and the love of family and friends to all of you.

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 01:59 PM
You're understanding what I mean by the cure, correct? Entirely shutting down our economy, which is what we have effectively done?
When LIZF said he was bothered by the argument that "we've gone too far", shutting down the economy is what I thought he meant. But I could be wrong.

And my point that's it's demoralizing to hear that this effort may have been in vain, is because it's been a sacrifice to shut down the economy, and I certainly hope it has been worth it.

I wasn't in any way thinking you don't appreciate doctors and nurses on the front line because I don't think their efforts have anything to do with us "going too far." In fact, I was trying to make the point that you sincerely care about the people affected by the economy shutting down in addition to the other considerations, and that's also admirable.

ETA:
I'm guessing LIZF brought up doctors and nurses in this context because our efforts to flatten the curve, if they're making a difference, also are helping to make their lives more tolerable, and that's another reason it would be worth the sacrifice.

kitzbuel
04-21-2020, 03:40 PM
Kitz, I havent read anything about Germany. Is there a primer you would recommend, providing an overview of their efforts?

Mainly following the news; BBC, Reuters, Guardian. I track the Johns Hopkins site, CDC has lots of data. Plus I can track all kinds of news and sources as part of my job.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

kitzbuel
04-21-2020, 03:45 PM
Mainly following the news; BBC, Reuters, Guardian. I track the Johns Hopkins site, CDC has lots of data. Plus I can track all kinds of news and sources as part of my job.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I like Business Insider as well.

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-germany-has-a-low-covid-19-mortality-rate-2020-4?amp


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

sonuvazag
04-21-2020, 06:57 PM
Josh Marshall makes the same point I do about how the fatality numbers in NY make the Santa Clara and LA studies implausible.


Much of the news coverage of the Stanford serology studies has focused on how many more infections they seem to show than the official lab confirmed numbers – ranging from 50 to 90 times the number in the LA County study. But these studies also speak directly to how lethal the disease is. They suggest that the actual death rate is just over .1%.

The problem with this estimate is that, as I explained here, the actual mortality data out of New York City seems to make that estimate all but impossible. As of two days ago, the COVID19 mortality rate in New York City for the entire population was between .11% and .16%, depending on whether you count only lab confirmed COVID19 fatalities or those diagnosed on the basis of symptoms alone. To put that differently, for something in the range of Bhattacharya’s IFR to be accurate, literally the entire population of New York City would have to have been infected already.

The numbers are straightforward: as of two days ago, there were 9,101 lab confirmed cases and 4,582 presumptive diagnosed cases for a total of 13,683 fatalities In New York City. The population of New York City is 8,398,748. That comes to either .11% or .16% depending on which death toll number is used.

I do not think anyone thinks 100% exposure is at all possible. Even if we assume what I think most experts would consider the highly unlikely possibility that 50% of New Yorkers have been infected with COVID19 that would mean a .33% IFR. To be generous, let’s say a third of the population of New York City had already been infected with COVID19 – very high but not inconceivable. That would mean a IFR of .49%.

Needless to say, I’m no epidemiologist and I’m no statistician. I can’t tell you what the actual infection fatality rate is. But the actual death toll from New York City appears to place a hard lower bound on the numbers that is significantly higher than what the Stanford group’s serology studies suggest.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/have-fatality-numbers-from-new-york-already-debunked-the-santa-clara-serology-study

willandi
04-21-2020, 08:24 PM
I'm passing on some useful guidelines that should clear up any confusion and misconceptions about the coronavirus:
-----------

1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.

2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one. Or maybe not, depending on where you live. It could save you, but it might not.

3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.

4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors: you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.

5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that it will sometimes lead to a global catastrophe.

6. Gloves won't help, but they can still help.

7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it's important to GO OUT.

8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes. Especially toilet paper, even though the virus is spread by aerosol, not arsehole.

9. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.

10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no-one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. (Oh, my!)

12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise to stay healthy. But you mustn't exercise for too long, or more than once a day, because that would be unhealthy.

13. On the other hand, you should eat whatever you have on hand, as it's better not to go out. (Except see above.)

14. It's better to get some fresh air, even though you'll get looked at funny when you do. Most importantly, you can't go to a park, even though that's the best place to get some fresh air if you live in a town, because if they �������� open there would be too many people getting fresh air at the same time, meaning the air there would no longer be fresh and could contain the virus. Except that some parks are still open anyway. But if they ������ open, you mustn't sit down, except that you can do so if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant (but not too old).

15. You can't go to retirement homes, but you need to take care of the elderly and bring them food and medication.

16. If you are sick, you can't go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.

17. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn't wear masks or gloves. But you have to let your groceries decontaminate outside for 3 hours. That includes pizza boxes.

18. Almost every disturbing article or interview starts with "I don't want to trigger panic, but…"

19. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but you can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.

20. You can walk around with a friend, but not with your family if they don't live under the same roof.

21. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.

22. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours – no, four – no, six – no, I didn't mean hours, but maybe it's days, depending on what kind of surface it is? But it needs a damp environment to linger. Or not necessarily.

23. The virus stays in the air - well, no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room. In one hour one sick person can infect ten others. So it is possible that all our children were already infected at their schools before they were closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, you should still be safe. However, in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, because studies show the virus can sometimes travel further, maybe.

24. We count the number of deaths, but we don't know how many people are infected by the virus, as we have so far only tested those who were "almost dead", to find out if that's what they'll die of.

25. The virus particularly stresses the lungs and heart. We have no treatment for this, except there is one drug that President Trump likes that might (or might not work), and is apparently not dangerous unless your heart is compromised by some sort of disease, because it causes irregular heartbeat and can trigger a heart attack. But it could still save you.

26. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity so that when it circulates among us we won't be affected… but we have to no longer be locked up for that to become possible.

27. The lockdowns will be eased or lifted when it is safe to do so. We'll know when that is because the rate of infection will be so low that the epidemic can't keep going. That's something we will find out from the testing for infections, using the test kits that we are desperately short of. In the meantime, until we get enough test kits, the politicians will make their best guess, depending on how soon they are standing for re-election and how badly the economy is doing because there aren't enough people working – though if a lockdown is lifted too early the epidemic will accelerate once more, and the economy will crash again anyway.

There, I think that should clear everything up.

You're welcome.

willandi
04-21-2020, 08:39 PM
Did Trump tell Israel about the novel coronavirus in November? A news report in Israel says yes.

https://politizoom.com/2020/04/17/israeli-paper-reports-trump-knew-about-covid-19-in-november-told-israel-nato-but-not-u-s/?fbclid=IwAR05FObB9ce78uBFF6qlRQeNH4JTg5WJa3qbnxsD 8pgMuCQkJUeVVvmrR1c

Did the Medical Military branch of the Pentagon report unusual activity near Wuhan in early to mid November? This reporter says they did, and while it is also true that they now deny it, would a reporter make up such a specific story with no support? Would our current administration punish somebody for releasing such a report?

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fedition.cnn.com%2F2020%2F04% 2F08%2Fpolitics%2Fus-intelligence-report-china-coronavirus%2Findex.html%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1NhDu7QyNC Wbc_tTyj-31D4DAPEdqgKqNPpADCG88Gf61v1rlXZe7eq24&h=AT1MK8vXeGuggGB7roErwz-aqSsj8YnX9-oY8LxVxqwFFYkjBK8GJUEgX7nN0kdTw7zG8Bd_kfCamZdVKU6y CfVC3IHXIP7T1sIrx1_rvyvyVF3FeY0KI5VFrllfEsHgLsJEMS JJgrldJao1RWXJ3NuzLn4ixOUUYL3-GihC4cXTcXd7PavBv0nMkmxvpbiohdQJM_wXp7alUPG0ocCHax 7gQubtxR2ZezSlVtDw_1slbcr78HJGcQIm0TaiJCaV2Yn3MwRF LuAW0o7H9sBM2e5fqjMJxAoewGoYEk6ycpRhs-Uf1cd3mFOoPoeBABd-Hsm-ihNSb0o0XAGqGnSYBzTiZFZFgAq5LvjSBANPkVvPw1JmFVBElU 1voSpAYTJmCMj4t-khzTScLfacv6vjmZsS3uaeUQ3XU5BrBbt2UB_cDXKO8i3lz33Z OOFZ93se_6v7uw6nKtWxmCO14450deCs1_zudPi7lOU7GDcM1D-obDi_6E40mZkuqMo9zl1iryZw-D-Typ1OPAaP8OFz1edOH_ltk_QD612138iqVL6-ZyDYI04nD9gFj6uxhUMreTOZuFPKY3aqDNEYImE-PLK08rFwOIFS7ExKChaCa5cbalLP8kXRghpxBzvWMg

MDABE80
04-22-2020, 01:52 AM
"Knew" and "tell" have no special significance. The world knew something was going on in Wuhan. We even offered our own Drs and other investigators to go to Wuhan and investigate. Loose talk such as those two words likely were just that...…..loose "hey, have you heard anything about a virus breakout in China?" I go back to my own data from the same MIH guys who didn't know but asked a lot of questions. So they didn't KNOW but they couldn't TELL anything to anybody.
If you recall, when Trump offered to send our research guys to take a look at their Institute of Virology, China refused. And then China blocked the data from getting out. This is beyond dispute.

Those are the facts. Innuendo or accusations shaded mean nothing. Heading for a political slant too like the above, should be avoided. Period. Serves no purpose and is only gossip and intitiates drama. DO we need more drama and arguments over uncertain facts? I don't think so. If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. Each region is different.

At this point, keeping the country closed in ALL areas is not worth it unless those people who enforce the low prevalence states/regions want the economy to weaken further for some bizarre reason. NPR has a "show" tonight about this outbreak. basically a worthless hour with few facts. Inslee at the bottom of it. Logic was along the lines of this..."President Reagan was shot and then he died"...…. all true but quite a bit of the fill in was just left out or the effect would be ruined.

willandi
04-22-2020, 06:08 AM
"Knew" and "tell" have no special significance. The world knew something was going on in Wuhan. We even offered our own Drs and other investigators to go to Wuhan and investigate. Loose talk such as those two words likely were just that...…..loose "hey, have you heard anything about a virus breakout in China?" I go back to my own data from the same MIH guys who didn't know but asked a lot of questions. So they didn't KNOW but they couldn't TELL anything to anybody.
If you recall, when Trump offered to send our research guys to take a look at their Institute of Virology, China refused. And then China blocked the data from getting out. This is beyond dispute.

Those are the facts. Innuendo or accusations shaded mean nothing. Heading for a political slant too like the above, should be avoided. Period. Serves no purpose and is only gossip and intitiates drama. DO we need more drama and arguments over uncertain facts? I don't think so. If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. Each region is different.

At this point, keeping the country closed in ALL areas is not worth it unless those people who enforce the low prevalence states/regions want the economy to weaken further for some bizarre reason. NPR has a "show" tonight about this outbreak. basically a worthless hour with few facts. Inslee at the bottom of it. Logic was along the lines of this..."President Reagan was shot and then he died"...…. all true but quite a bit of the fill in was just left out or the effect would be ruined.

Not really trying to be political, but if this country knew in November and had started making preparations then, where would we be? Just speculating, true, because we will never know, but I feel that if it could be true, it needs to be known and considered.

Just my opinion, of course.

gu03alum
04-22-2020, 10:29 AM
I found this article interesting.

A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/)

MDABE80
04-22-2020, 11:28 AM
Not really trying to be political, but if this country knew in November and had started making preparations then, where would we be? Just speculating, true, because we will never know, but I feel that if it could be true, it needs to be known and considered.

Just my opinion, of course.
Well maybe considered but there's only a thin basis for it. The problem always returns to China who deliberately hid the information. Even if a few people asked about it, China hid it. Standing back months later with the benefit of hind site and with more known, lots of things can be questioned but as of now, China simply hid it. they went to the extent of "disappearing" their own people who tried to let out some information. I don't see that any credence be given to "Trump knew it in November and did nothing" It's a little far fetched.
Anymore though, all things are possible. 'I'm a little more concerned about people reopening the country.....I do hope they maintain the 6 ft rule, handwashing, etc.etc....

willandi
04-23-2020, 06:18 AM
Well maybe considered but there's only a thin basis for it. The problem always returns to China who deliberately hid the information. Even if a few people asked about it, China hid it. Standing back months later with the benefit of hind site and with more known, lots of things can be questioned but as of now, China simply hid it. they went to the extent of "disappearing" their own people who tried to let out some information. I don't see that any credence be given to "Trump knew it in November and did nothing" It's a little far fetched.
Anymore though, all things are possible. 'I'm a little more concerned about people reopening the country.....I do hope they maintain the 6 ft rule, handwashing, etc.etc....

In general I tend to agree that looking back does nothing and I DO social distance, wash my hands and use alcohol wipes frequently, but we are now into week 7 of the 'official' recognition of this pandemic. Just imagine if instead we were in week 20 (starting with the last week in November). The additional 12+ weeks of preparation could have been huge, almost perfect weeks, the best weeks.

One line of work that is being terribly hard hit ( or so I've heard) is prostitution. One small group is specializing. They only have sex with 6' Poles.
https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/93695782_3042149832514568_8016968847858860032_n.jp g?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=liL5R_6X9F8AX_t9nHC&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&oh=ca8cd457d283ef0f1654ea69f9fe0224&oe=5EC56442

former1dog
04-23-2020, 09:26 AM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22/coronavirus-biblical-famines-could-double-global-hunger-un-warns.html


That would mean an additional 130 million people were "living on the edge of starvation," largely due to the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis,with wages, supply chains and humanitarian aid under pressure as a result of the outbreak.

Not just a problem in third world countries. I sent this note a week ago to a friend who has the ear of my congressman, sorry I can’t find the original article.

gI wanted to get a message to Representative ******** and I knew reaching out to you would be a quick way to do it. I read an article today detailing concern about the economic impact specifically due to the closing of meat packing plants and the farmers that supply them. I’m concerned that if that supply chain breaks down it could have more serious consequences for our communities generally. I was hoping to bring this to ******* attention so he could look into it and help avert any potential problems here in Utah. I should add the caveat that I’m unsure if the article I read was legitimate or not in terms of the true severity and implications, but logically it seems plausible and is worth some investigation. Thank you!

The response I received:

Hi Robert - Yes, I read that article too. Happy to chat about it. We had a roundtable today with the Ag Community this morning to try and learn more. Feel free to call me at ************. Thanks!

Again, I’m of course concerned about the impact of the virus directly, but my increasing concern is of the impacts we have taken to combat it and the real significant health concerns related to combating it.

LTownZag
04-23-2020, 10:08 AM
"Knew" and "tell" have no special significance. The world knew something was going on in Wuhan. We even offered our own Drs and other investigators to go to Wuhan and investigate. Loose talk such as those two words likely were just that...…..loose "hey, have you heard anything about a virus breakout in China?" I go back to my own data from the same MIH guys who didn't know but asked a lot of questions. So they didn't KNOW but they couldn't TELL anything to anybody.
If you recall, when Trump offered to send our research guys to take a look at their Institute of Virology, China refused. And then China blocked the data from getting out. This is beyond dispute.


You’ve referenced a variant of this story multiple times.

When did it happen? When did USA based doctors get refused entry or kicked out?
When did Trump insist it even suggest (unsuccessfully) that USA based folks go to Wuhan?

I’m not currently disputing your claim (you say it is “beyond dispute” but do you have any evidence of it really happening?

MDABE80
04-23-2020, 12:01 PM
You’ve referenced a variant of this story multiple times.

When did it happen? When did USA based doctors get refused entry or kicked out?
When did Trump insist it even suggest (unsuccessfully) that USA based folks go to Wuhan?

I’m not currently disputing your claim (you say it is “beyond dispute” but do you have any evidence of it really happening?

LTown...Im not going to do work for you. Everything I wrote has been in the news for months. Im sure if you're genuinely interested, you can look those things up./ That's beyond dispute! lolol So go forth and be satisfied. Truth be known, I don’t have the time. Busy with pts. Sounded offensive. Sorry for that.

bballbeachbum
04-23-2020, 02:43 PM
this may be the first time I post in the Foo, very interesting discussion

found this artcile dated April 22 helpful re. masks

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/

sonuvazag
04-23-2020, 03:02 PM
this may be the first time I post in the Foo, very interesting discussion

found this artcile dated April 22 helpful re. masks

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/

Thanks for sharing.

gu03alum
04-23-2020, 05:55 PM
I saw tonight on tv that if you inject sunlight and disinfectant into your body you can beat COVID19.

kitzbuel
04-23-2020, 06:08 PM
I saw tonight on tv that if you inject sunlight and disinfectant into your body you can beat COVID19.

https://pics.me.me/its-not-my-job-to-blow-sunshine-up-your-ass-6620642.png

MDABE80
04-23-2020, 06:17 PM
On non porous. Countertops true. But not in people.

LTownZag
04-23-2020, 06:32 PM
LTown...Im not going to do work for you. Everything I wrote has been in the news for months. Im sure if you're genuinely interested, you can look those things up./ That's beyond dispute! lolol So go forth and be satisfied. Truth be known, I don’t have the time. Busy with pts. Sounded offensive. Sorry for that.

MDABE80,

I spent time a couple weeks ago looking into your claim that american doctors or medical experts had been expelled from China or were not permitted to visit China to investigate. No amount of google research revealed anything at all about that.


Since your claim is "beyond dispute" could you provide a single example of a news story or government-issued press item about this event? (after finishing those patients)

sonuvazag
04-23-2020, 06:45 PM
Well maybe considered but there's only a thin basis for it. The problem always returns to China who deliberately hid the information. Even if a few people asked about it, China hid it. Standing back months later with the benefit of hind site and with more known, lots of things can be questioned but as of now, China simply hid it. they went to the extent of "disappearing" their own people who tried to let out some information. I don't see that any credence be given to "Trump knew it in November and did nothing" It's a little far fetched.
Anymore though, all things are possible. 'I'm a little more concerned about people reopening the country.....I do hope they maintain the 6 ft rule, handwashing, etc.etc....

I'm more willing than some of the others to agree that China has a lot to answer for. The problem for me is if China wasn't letting US doctors into Wuhan, why would Trump tweet on Jan. 24: “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!”

At best, this makes Trump look naive.

LTownZag
04-23-2020, 07:07 PM
If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. Each region is different.



Abe - What measures are you basing this projection on, and would you care to provide any of specificity about what you mean by "deaths will be very little"?

The excellent Alex Tabarrok says "betting is a tax on Bull####" - would you be willing to publicly bet $100 (to a health charity of your choice) that deaths after 5/22/2020 and before 4/22/2021 in the USA from Covid-19 will be below 10 thousand? 20 thousand? 50 thousand? I'd take any of those bets, again donating the totals of all money to a health charity.

LTownZag
04-23-2020, 07:29 PM
"Knew" and "tell" have no special significance. The world knew something was going on in Wuhan. We even offered our own Drs and other investigators to go to Wuhan and investigate. Loose talk such as those two words likely were just that...…..loose "hey, have you heard anything about a virus breakout in China?" I go back to my own data from the same MIH guys who didn't know but asked a lot of questions. So they didn't KNOW but they couldn't TELL anything to anybody.
If you recall, when Trump offered to send our research guys to take a look at their Institute of Virology, China refused. And then China blocked the data from getting out. This is beyond dispute.


President Trump was asked on February 7 "Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?" He said "No." (https://thebulwark.com/february-7-a-day-that-will-live-in-infamy/)

Is there any incident or event in this entire sordid history that wasn't an example of the wise and savvy Trump acting in the optimum manner, but partially thwarted by a group of nefarious foreigners and domestic left-wingers and their media lapdogs who were simultaneously ignoring the threat out of love for China, and overhyping the threat out of hatred for Trump? (the above sounds like absurd summary, but it's my attempt to faithfully capture what seems to be MDABE80's view of the events of the past 90 days).

Can you name a single error os misstep on the part of this administration? Would firing Fauci (your friend with whom you speak) constitute such a misstep?

MDABE80
04-24-2020, 12:40 PM
Lets get the facts straight.
1. I know Fauci and never said he was my friend. Bright guy. Don't put words in my mouth.

2. In your first paragraph above and proximal to this post, boil it down to 1 question. That rambling mess above is unclear. What do your really want to know or are you just being petulant?

Markburn1
04-24-2020, 07:24 PM
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/480314-us-looks-to-send-health-experts-to-china-amid

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7940139/China-turned-offer-send-scientists-fight-coronavirus.html

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/azar-hhs-cdc/2020/02/14/id/954149/

https://www.foxnews.com/health/us-health-officials-on-coronavirus-outbreak

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/30/china-asks-cdc-help-investigate-wuhan-virus/

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/28/federal-officials-china-health-workers-enter-coronavirus/

Literally hundreds of stories

Markburn1
04-24-2020, 07:32 PM
I saw tonight on tv that if you inject sunlight and disinfectant into your body you can beat COVID19.

This was a BS Story. It's why nobody trusts the media.

Trump was responding to Bill Bryan who had just presented a couple different things that DHS might test.

"So, Iím going to ask Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of if youíre totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing when we hit the body with a tremendous, whether itís ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasnít been checked, but youíre going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said youíre going to test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so itíd be interesting to check that, so that youíre going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, weíll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. Thatís pretty powerful."

From the Daily Wire

A few moments later, ABC News reporter Jon Karl asked Bryan, ďThe president mentioned the idea of a cleaner, bleach and isopropyl alcohol emerging. Thereís no scenario where that could be injected into a person, is there?Ē
ďNo, Iím here to talk about the finds that we had in the study,Ē Bryan responded. ďWe donít do that within that lab at our labs.Ē
Trump then clarified his remarks: ďIt wouldnít be through injections, youíre talking about almost a cleaning and sterilization of an area. Maybe it works, maybe it doesnít work, but it certainly has a big affect if itís on a stationary object.Ē

LTownZag
04-24-2020, 07:43 PM
Lets get the facts straight.
1. I know Fauci and never said he was my friend. Bright guy. Don't put words in my mouth.

2. In your first paragraph above and proximal to this post, boil it down to 1 question. That rambling mess above is unclear. What do your really want to know or are you just being petulant?

1. Will you provide a single link to a media story or government report describing what you say happened “beyond dispute” - a story that USA based doctors or health officials were barred from entry and/or kicked out of Wuhan?

2. Will you support your assertion about very low deaths after a month from now with a public $100 bet (for charity) that domestic deaths will reflect what you predict (very low)? Let’s say under 30,000 in the next 10 months following 5/22/20?

MDABE80 latest prediction: “If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. ”

LTownZag
04-24-2020, 07:51 PM
President Trump was asked on February 7 "Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?" He said "No." (https://thebulwark.com/february-7-a-day-that-will-live-in-infamy/)

Is there any incident or event in this entire sordid history that wasn't an example of the wise and savvy Trump acting in the optimum manner, but partially thwarted by a group of nefarious foreigners and domestic left-wingers and their media lapdogs who were simultaneously ignoring the threat out of love for China, and overhyping the threat out of hatred for Trump? (the above sounds like absurd summary, but it's my attempt to faithfully capture what seems to be MDABE80's view of the events of the past 90 days).

Can you name a single error os misstep on the part of this administration? Would firing Fauci (your friend with whom you speak) constitute such a misstep?


This was a BS Story. It's why nobody trusts the media.

Trump was responding to Bill Bryan who had just presented a couple different things that DHS might test.

"So, I’m going to ask Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing when we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that, so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful."

From the Daily Wire

A few moments later, ABC News reporter Jon Karl asked Bryan, “The president mentioned the idea of a cleaner, bleach and isopropyl alcohol emerging. There’s no scenario where that could be injected into a person, is there?”
“No, I’m here to talk about the finds that we had in the study,” Bryan responded. “We don’t do that within that lab at our labs.”
Trump then clarified his remarks: “It wouldn’t be through injections, you’re talking about almost a cleaning and sterilization of an area. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t work, but it certainly has a big affect if it’s on a stationary object.”

Mark, I agree with you that much of the prominent media spins things against Trump and that Trump was not actually suggesting humans inject themselves or each other with bleach, etc.

But the fact that even reasonable people in the white house acknowledge a need to clarify that the president of the united states was not, in fact, suggesting drinking or injecting bleach or other chemical disinfectants, is evidence of a kind of sloppy and unhinged cognition and speech pattern. AKA the most Trump-charitable interpretation of the event is that the president was needlessly unclear, conjecturing, distracting, and unscientific in his remarks.

Markburn1
04-24-2020, 07:52 PM
1. Will you provide a single link to a media story or government report describing what you say happened “beyond dispute” - a story that USA based doctors or health officials were barred from entry and/or kicked out of Wuhan?

2. Will you support your assertion about very low deaths after a month from now with a public $100 bet (for charity) that domestic deaths will reflect what you predict (very low)? Let’s say under 30,000 in the next 10 months following 5/22/20?


MDABE80 latest prediction: “If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. ”

Wagering on how many people are gonna die???

You might want to rethink that.

LTownZag
04-24-2020, 08:33 PM
Lets get the facts straight.
1. I know Fauci and never said he was my friend. Bright guy. Don't put words in my mouth.



You actually said "good friend" (of the past 35 years) so he might be offended to learn now you claim that he was never your friend. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67848-How-will-Coronavirus-Impact-the-NCAA-tournament&highlight=fauci) (third post down). Should I expect any kind of apology for personally sarcastically insulting me after I quoted your own words (from 6 weeks ago!) to you?



It’s just a minor variation of the flu. Tony Fauci is running this program for Trump. Listen to what he says. Tony’s a good friend since 1985.

LTownZag
04-24-2020, 08:35 PM
Wagering on how many people are gonna die???

You might want to rethink that.

If you have a suggestion for a better way to evaluate ABE's predictions about the deaths from COVID-19, I'm happy to try them and would prefer to use those as a basis for judging predictions. So far MDABE80 has made predictions (mostly very very very wrong always in the same direction) explicit in terms of deaths, so it seems like a relevant metric with which to evaluate those predictions and see how much he or others are willing to stand behind them. Also it would result in $100 going to a good cause either way, and devloping accurate in public predictions, especially those made by an MD in the area of an epidemic, seems like something people ought to support in the interest of saving lives. It separates out some randomly generated BS from a view genuinely held with confidence.

If looking to find offense in the situation, I'd start with a review of the consistent public predictions of this threat from MDABE80, Doctorzag, Former1dog, and NEC26 rather than the proposed measurement for evaluating the accuracy of current predictions.

MDABE80
04-25-2020, 11:11 AM
35 years ago yes. Now? Not so much. So I'm correct on both counts. But your definition of "good" and mine are obviously different. I didn't say "CLOSE" which may have confused you. Good?, Close? There's a difference. But on a message board, what means something to someone may not mean the same thing to everyone. Care to refine your definition? You won't... because you don't know. And I properly characterized the relationship then and now. Both moved on to other careers. Don't talk to him much unless I need to. And THAT WAS your only question?? Gee that was easy. As I figured though, you're a just a petulant, insignificant type of little consequence. I thought it would be something important........ And FYI 50 K deaths.... Not at the 60 K yet ( Flu's biggest mortality in the past 20 years) . Several types of flu virus and at least 40 types of corona virus. In behavior, they are not that different.

Seems to me that you're a waste of time LTown. A lightweight....You received nothing out of this banter of yours.

MDABE80
04-25-2020, 11:16 AM
If you have a suggestion for a better way to evaluate ABE's predictions about the deaths from COVID-19, I'm happy to try them and would prefer to use those as a basis for judging predictions. So far MDABE80 has made predictions (mostly very very very wrong always in the same direction) explicit in terms of deaths, so it seems like a relevant metric with which to evaluate those predictions and see how much he or others are willing to stand behind them. Also it would result in $100 going to a good cause either way, and devloping accurate in public predictions, especially those made by an MD in the area of an epidemic, seems like something people ought to support in the interest of saving lives. It separates out some randomly generated BS from a view genuinely held with confidence.

If looking to find offense in the situation, I'd start with a review of the consistent public predictions of this threat from MDABE80, Doctorzag, Former1dog, and NEC26 rather than the proposed measurement for evaluating the accuracy of current predictions.

Actually the predictions have been right on the money..and nothing you can say LTown ..... .in your little petulant, ankle biting demeanor will change that. And to what end you've attempted to generate obfuscation and uncertainty is unknown. Certainly has not been successful whatever you wanted. Pretty much a waste of time.

MDABE80
04-25-2020, 11:44 AM
For those of you who have genuine interest, the no of patients infected is dropping, hospitalizations are dropping as are use of ventilators. NY is another story for unexpected reasons. In the huge number counted as infected, it's unknown how many had blood test to affirm the diagnosis. As it turns our we know that deaths were inappropriately attributed to corona. We also know that 70% of deaths were not only older than 70 yrs but 90% had other comorbid diseases. The nursing home set are in nursing homes generally because they are old and sick.

Now my old ( get to this LT!! lol) friend Tony Fauci sees the darker side of things but he sees ALL the data and must do harsh projection lest he be accused of giving a Rosy picture of a potentially lethal disease and remaining unprepared . Given the present trends though, if you disregard the (blame the government media) things are getting better. IN my view, the media generated a huge over reaction. Things are getting better in most .not all......spots. as this situation plays out, ask yourselves where you're getting your news . Usually media..and in most cases, the liberal media designed to scare you. It's mostly the unknown that generates fear.

The biology of a disease often looks horrible at the beginning.....and it moderates when more is known. 85 in LA today and pure Sun. Social distance more aptly put "Don't go around potentially sick people" and wear masks in crowds should help a lot. Common sense things. When Governor Cuomo demands the thousand bed Comfort ship to come to NY and only 71 beds are used or when he demands 40,000 ventilators when only 5000 are needed, it should underscore the hysteria we've seen. Things are getting better....sometimes slowly, sometimes quickly. No doubt though, things get better.

LTownZag
04-25-2020, 08:08 PM
Actually the predictions have been right on the money..and nothing you can say LTown ..... .in your little petulant, ankle biting demeanor will change that. And to what end you've attempted to generate obfuscation and uncertainty is unknown. Certainly has not been successful whatever you wanted. Pretty much a waste of time.


Here are a few of your predictions from the last 8 weeks. (Out of curiosity, have I ever personally insulted you or attacked or even implied any insults on your character or intentions?)

-We are America and we manage problems expeditiously. If I have to guess, this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68070-How-are-you-doing-(and-Netflix-etc-recommendations)/page4) (written 1 month ago)

-Yes the flu does kill thousands in a month. It’s far more malignant [than] the corona. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68070-How-are-you-doing-(and-Netflix-etc-recommendations)/page4)

-Mortality has been about what you might expect of a flu or flu variants. It's the media that is forcing the politicians to pay attention.

-I doubt any team or even this Inslee character will shy away from Spokane. This is not a huge deal anyway. (regarding potential tournament cancellation)
(http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67882-Spokane-Regional-(-COVID-19-Related-)&p=1509719#post1509719)

Question: how will Corona impact the NCAA tournament-- ABE's prediction: "Not unless the media scares the crap out of people. It’s just a minor variation of the flu. Tony Fauci is running this program for Trump. Listen to what he says. Tony’s a good friend since 1985." (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67848-How-will-Coronavirus-Impact-the-NCAA-tournament&p=1508977#post1508977)

-As it turns out, NCAA may have jumped the gun. 2200 total cases in the US and 49 deaths. When the covey closed the. O I g from China weeks ago that was a key move. Ow shutting off Europeans from coming in may be the clincher. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67986-This-Lively-and-Exciting-Board-is-a-Daily-Joy&p=1512842#post1512842)

-Things may be turning....surely hope so. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68070-How-are-you-doing-(and-Netflix-etc-recommendations)&p=1514249#post1514249) (written 1 month ago)

-Pretty much under control now except in a few pockets ie NY, NJ and Seattle area. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68108-What-Is-the-%93Drop-Dead%94-date-for-knowing-if-there-will-be-a-2020-21-NCAA-men%92s/page3) (written april 2)


These last 3 aren't predictions, but are explicit disease-related medical claims that are not and never were near correct:

-I do see that 81% of deaths are the 80 yr olds and up. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68045-How-sure-are-you-we-ll-have-a-2020-2021-season-(and-COVID-19-Topics)&p=1514022#post1514022)

-Im speaking to the low mortality rate across the couintry which hovers at 1.4-1.9% according Johns Hopkins (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality) (It's 5.7%, I don't believe it has even been as low as double the number Abe gives)

-If u had a disease that gave no or little symptoms 80% of the time. And you lived thru it 99% of the time, would you take it? And in America, this is what we’re seeing. The media has an event and the politicians must do what the media tells them or else. It’s the fear. It’s not the epidemic. China, Italy, etc have different genetics and they dont have the US health system. They don’t have our diets, clean air to breath and we don’t eat bats and dogs. There will be pockets of severity as there always is. In 40 plus years in medicine, I’ve never seen such a low mortality or morbidity. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68070-How-are-you-doing-(and-Netflix-etc-recommendations)&p=1514086#post1514086)

Fact checking Abe has lead to me a lot of great articles and resources about this disease. I wouldn't bother correcting minor errors, and I wouldn't bother with major errors if they weren't presented from a source repeatedly given info to the public as coming from a self-described medical authority (final quote, for example). As a public service, here are a few resources that seem worthwhile for data. Please correct if anything I've written or implied is inaccurate:

-Live-update tracker (http://www.ncovid19.live/)

-John Hopkins Mortality by Nations (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality)

Marginal Revolution (w/Tyler Cowen) (https://marginalrevolution.com/)

- Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)

-Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker (https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)

Scott Gottlieb (https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5E serp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)

Balaji Srinivasan (https://twitter.com/balajis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ct wgr%5Eauthor)

Lyman Stone (https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eser p%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)

Nicholas Christakis (https://twitter.com/NAChristakis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eser p%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)

Peter Attia (https://twitter.com/PeterAttiaMD)

MDABE80
04-26-2020, 12:48 AM
Here are a few of your predictions from the last 8 weeks. (Out of curiosity, have I ever personally insulted you or attacked or even implied any insults on your character or intentions?)< yes you have and without cause. <-- don't be silly, you've tried from the beginning. And to be clear, my expertise is anything BUT self proclaimed. You probably don't know enough but my work is acclaimed throughout the world,, Others say it not me. Ask GoZags.,...he might fill you in.

-We are America and we manage problems expeditiously. If I have to guess, this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68070-How-are-you-doing-(and-Netflix-etc-recommendations)/page4) (written 1 month ago) AND I may have been off by 2-3 weeks, this is exactly what has happened. So your issue would be?

-Yes the flu does kill thousands in a month. Itís far more malignant [than] the corona. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68070-How-are-you-doing-(and-Netflix-etc-recommendations)/page4) < and having reviewed the flu mortality for the past 200 years, the total deaths have ranged from 19,000 to 61,000. Tonight COVID 19 has claimed 54,000 lives ( if you can trust that figure which is uncertain) still under a bad flu year in mortality. SO your point is?

-Mortality has been about what you might expect of a flu or flu variants. It's the media that is forcing the politicians to pay attention.< ture enough in my opinion.

-I doubt any team or even this Inslee character will shy away from Spokane. This is not a huge deal anyway. (regarding potential tournament cancellation)< I think that if you put basketball tournaments being canceled and comparing that to diseases that kill and maim, most would agree with me. Basketball tournaments are small change be comparison.
(http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67882-Spokane-Regional-(-COVID-19-Related-)&p=1509719#post1509719)

Question: how will Corona impact the NCAA tournament-- ABE's prediction: "Not unless the media scares the crap out of people. Itís just a minor variation of the flu. Tony Fauci is running this program for Trump. Listen to what he says. Tonyís a good friend since 1985." (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67848-How-will-Coronavirus-Impact-the-NCAA-tournament&p=1508977#post1508977) We know more about the disease, Fauci said that in the very beginning. As you must define "good" friends vs a close friend vs a "friend" You haven't and yet your whine over my description. Define it ( you can't) and I'll be happy to revisit level of friendship. So what's the rub?

-As it turns out, NCAA may have jumped the gun. 2200 total cases in the US and 49 deaths. When the covey closed the. O I g from China weeks ago that was a key move. Ow shutting off Europeans from coming in may be the clincher. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?67986-This-Lively-and-Exciting-Board-is-a-Daily-Joy&p=1512842#post1512842)<--- I don't know anybody with a brain that would dispute closing the border to visiting Chinese and subsequently Euro visitors didn't make a huge difference I what likely would have been. It was the key move limiting the extent of disease. I don't know anybody who would seriously doubt this.

-Things may be turning....surely hope so. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68070-How-are-you-doing-(and-Netflix-etc-recommendations)&p=1514249#post1514249) (written 1 month ago)< true and they continue to change as evidence by hospital admissions, ICU admits , ventilator usage, Prevalence of disease ( some argue this) and all important indicators of the disease lessening in importance.

-Pretty much under control now except in a few pockets ie NY, NJ and Seattle area. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68108-What-Is-the-%93Drop-Dead%94-date-for-knowing-if-there-will-be-a-2020-21-NCAA-men%92s/page3) (written april 2) A<--- true as described unless you're living in a cave.


These last 3 aren't predictions, but are explicit disease-related medical claims that are not and never were near correct:

-I do see that 81% of deaths are the 80 yr olds and up. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68045-How-sure-are-you-we-ll-have-a-2020-2021-season-(and-COVID-19-Topics)&p=1514022#post1514022) <--- was true in the early phase of the corona. Now it's changed to 70% od deaths occurring in the over 70 yrs of age set,...almost always with co morbid diseases underlying....so what's the rub?

-Im speaking to the low mortality rate across the couintry which hovers at 1.4-1.9% according Johns Hopkins (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality) (It's 5.7%, I don't believe it has even been as low as double the number Abe gives). <--- sorry it was that rate at the beginning. Now it's about 5% overall. As of tonight the death rate is downward..so?

-If u had a disease that gave no or little symptoms 80% of the time. And you lived thru it 99% of the time, would you take it? And in America, this is what weíre seeing. The media has an event and the politicians must do what the media tells them or else. Itís the fear. Itís not the epidemic. China, Italy, etc have different genetics and they dont have the US health system. They donít have our diets, clean air to breath and we donít eat bats and dogs. There will be pockets of severity as there always is. In 40 plus years in medicine, Iíve never seen such a low mortality or morbidity. (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?68070-How-are-you-doing-(and-Netflix-etc-recommendations)&p=1514086#post1514086)< so? ALL of this is true and correct. Try harder to dispute what I wrote back then.

Fact checking Abe has lead to me a lot of great articles and resources about this disease. I wouldn't bother correcting minor errors, and I wouldn't bother with major errors if they weren't presented from a source repeatedly given info to the public as coming from a self-described medical authority (final quote, for example). As a public service, here are a few resources that seem worthwhile for data. Please correct if anything I've written or implied is inaccurate:< no you're not off the hook this easy. You have consistently tried to contest the facts I've written. For what I don't know, But since you've joined this board, you've been hostile. I believe it was Reno that sent you to the corner for a week or so for being abusive to others on the board and for contesting others' views. And for what? Because you have incessantly put up "facts' that were not and are not facts. LIZ had great joy despite not knowing the facts himself... and let your nonsense continue......just like now.

You're a lightweight who been hostile from your first day on this board. You've taken things out of context and called them true as written when they were simply not true without understanding from whence the statements came. Kinda like a big time waster. Good luck..I think you'll need luck if you are to flourish in life.


-Live-update tracker (http://www.ncovid19.live/)

-John Hopkins Mortality by Nations (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality)

Marginal Revolution (w/Tyler Cowen) (https://marginalrevolution.com/)

- Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)

-Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker (https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)

Scott Gottlieb (https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5E serp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)

Balaji Srinivasan (https://twitter.com/balajis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ct wgr%5Eauthor)

Lyman Stone (https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eser p%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)

Nicholas Christakis (https://twitter.com/NAChristakis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eser p%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)

Peter Attia (https://twitter.com/PeterAttiaMD)
//

RenoZag
04-26-2020, 04:39 AM
Several seasons ago, we deleted the " Online Crosby Center" Forum from the GUB. The OCC, as it was known, was a catch-all discussion zone that included current events, religion, ethics, politics, a bit of history, books, and other stuff. . .

It was closed down because of threads like this one.