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LTownZag
01-01-2020, 07:23 PM
I love having Kispert as a zag and he has surpassed my hopes and expectations for the year, but it’s amazing how stubborn we humans are with developing and repeating narratives.

For the last 2 years Zach Norvell was widely described as streaky or very streaky. I’m honestly unsure if those claims were ever supported by data.

But this year Kispert has scored 20 or over 4 times, and 6 or less 4 times.

Out of 15 games, he has just one game of shooting between 30% and 50% from 3pt range.
He has shot over 80% 4 times and under 20% 4 times.

Total feast or famine offense.

You can see his splits here.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/corey-kispert-1/gamelog/9999/

I hope his streaky/hot games coincide with BYU and SMC and the later tourney rounds.

Markburn1
01-01-2020, 07:58 PM
I don’t need to research numbers for Norvell. He shot us in some games and shot us out of games. Sometimes he did both in the same game.

JPtheBeasta
01-01-2020, 08:30 PM
Kispert very rarely takes bad shots, it seems to me. I can't remember the last time he did. Norvell took some terrible shots, and even some of the big ones he hit were of the "No, no, no... Yes!" variety, when my excitement for the made shot was preceded by angst that the shot was being taken. I thought of Norvell as a volume shooter and would not think of Kispert in that way, and I think that the statistics would bear that out. I trust Kispert's mid-range shot way more than Norvell's. I think Norvell was a craftier guy off the dribble and could finish in more ways around the rim. Prior to looking at the numbers, I also guessed that Norvell got to the free throw line more, but it was only one more time per game.

After looking at the game logs, I guess I would say that Kispert had more bad shooting nights, but what probably makes Norvell stick out in my mind is that he had many games when he had double-digit 3-point attempts, and started out slow before hitting them in bunches. In the Creighton game he took 17(!), and although he hit a healthy percentage of those, and he started out ice cold (In the first half, he was 1/6 from three and didn't make that until 3 minutes before halftime (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=401083223)).

Career comparison on sports-reference.com:
Norvell: FG%: 44.4...FG3%: 37.0...FT%: 83.6...eFG%: 55.7...PER: 20.7...WS: 11.1
Kispert: FG%: 46.3...FG3%: 38.1...FT%: 77.7...eFG%: 58.4...PER: 15.2...WS: 8.7 (his season numbers are better this year, aside from WS)
---
PER= Player Efficiency Rating (complicated formula; as a matter of comparison, Brandon Clarke's PER was 37.2 last year)
WS = Win Shares, which is an estimate of wins contributed by a player due to offense and defense

JPtheBeasta
01-01-2020, 08:31 PM
I don’t need to research numbers for Norvell. He shot us in some games and shot us out of games. Sometimes he did both in the same game.

That sums up nicely the 30 minutes or so of research I just did...

Malastein
01-01-2020, 09:50 PM
[QUOTE=J
Career comparison on sports-reference.com:
Norvell: FG%: 44.4...FG3%: 37.0...FT%: 83.6...eFG%: 55.7...PER: 20.7...WS: 11.1
Kispert: FG%: 46.3...FG3%: 38.1...FT%: 77.7...eFG%: 58.4...PER: 15.2...WS: 8.7 [/QUOTE]

This year Kispert is an 18.8 PER compared to 21.1 PER for Norvell’s final season. Norvell became a much more capable defender, and I just don’t see Kispert being a guy who excels on that side of the ball. He’s gotten much better though, and he has definitely stepped up in being a leader for this team.

jazzdelmar
01-01-2020, 09:53 PM
Kisspert is unselfish, Norvell was.....

gueastcoast
01-02-2020, 05:02 AM
It's not something that shows easily in a stat sheet, but as alluded to above even when CK is having an off night it's hard to fault his shot selection and whether he is operating within the flow of the offense. As much as I love Snacks, some of his off nights (as well as many of his "on" ones) entailed ill-advised, early in the shot clock, no ball movement heaves. For what it's worth.

Goshzagit
01-02-2020, 05:15 AM
Will be watching Corey closely tonight.

Not for shooting purposes, rather his left leg/calf.

He didnt look right to me vs Detroit-Mercy.

Lacked explosion, and seemed to be moving gingerly, even a bit awkwardly when planting or pushing off with his leg.

There was a compression wrap on his calf, unsure if related or not, and no word of injury, but he didnt pass the "eye test. After a watching a player every game for 3 yrs, you begin to notice when something looks "off" about them.

Bogozags
01-02-2020, 06:45 AM
Kisspert is unselfish, Norvell was.....

Norvell had the proverbial green light as did Dickau, Morrison and Stepp...

He was also 2nd in assists and steals last season...

Can't argue that he took questionable shots at times - I can't remember when CK took those types of shots...

jazzdelmar
01-02-2020, 06:55 AM
Norvell had the proverbial green light as did Dickau, Morrison and Stepp...

He was also 2nd in assists and steals last season...

Can't argue that he took questionable shots at times - I can't remember when CK took those types of shots...

DD, Ammo, BS...................Norvell? Please.

TexasZagFan
01-02-2020, 07:53 AM
Kisspert is unselfish, Norvell was.....

The Davis kid from Detroit Mercy is a Zach Norvell starter kit, but without the ability to make the great pass or key rebound that Zach was able to produce. Davis is only a sophomore, and has time to develop a more rounded game.

LOL, if a couple of rim wrattlers had fallen for Corey against Detroit, IMO the conversation we're having doesn't materialize. When you have 7 players scoring in double figures, you're going to have those up and down nights.

Yeah, Zach had a quick trigger, but I thought his basketball IQ was up there. I recall nights where his contributions came from rebounding, passing, and great defense. He's fearless, a great attribute in tight games.

ETA: I don't vote on stars for threads, but this thread is deserving of its one star rank. One game played after a 9 day break for Christmas, and we're voicing concerns about a player? The game was set up as a tuneup for league play, nothing more.

LTownZag
01-02-2020, 08:34 AM
Kisspert is unselfish, Norvell was.....

Norvell - 3.8 assists per 40 minutes

Kispert - 1.7 assists per 40 minutes

narratives are sticky things.

LTownZag
01-02-2020, 08:39 AM
The Davis kid from Detroit Mercy is a Zach Norvell starter kit, but without the ability to make the great pass or key rebound that Zach was able to produce. Davis is only a sophomore, and has time to develop a more rounded game.

LOL, if a couple of rim wrattlers had fallen for Corey against Detroit, IMO the conversation we're having doesn't materialize. When you have 7 players scoring in double figures, you're going to have those up and down nights.

Yeah, Zach had a quick trigger, but I thought his basketball IQ was up there. I recall nights where his contributions came from rebounding, passing, and great defense. He's fearless, a great attribute in tight games.

ETA: I don't vote on stars for threads, but this thread is deserving of its one star rank. One game played after a 9 day break for Christmas, and we're voicing concerns about a player? The game was set up as a tuneup for league play, nothing more.

As the author of this thread, I'm neither "concerned" about Kispert (hence I started the thread explaining how impressed and happy I was with him) nor did I start it just because of how Kispert played vs Detroit Mercy. Ignore that game, in which he went 1-5 (20%), and the season is 14 games but just 2 games where CK was between 30% and 60% from deep. Maybe it's a statistical aberration due to small sample size (15 games) and the 2nd half of the year he scores 10-15 regularly and shoots 30%-50% a lot of nights.

I started it because on a game-to-game timeframe (not within the same game) Kispert's scoring and his 3pt% have been mostly way above or way below average, but I hadn't read anyone describe him as streaky. If his play through 15 games this year isn't "streaky" (and moreso than Norvell on a game-by-game basis) then what would be?

GoZags
01-02-2020, 09:08 AM
Norvell - 3.8 assists per 40 minutes

Kispert - 1.7 assists per 40 minutes

narratives are sticky things.

Kispert is shooting 44% from three this year. Zach never averaged over 37%

Zach isn’t here. He left. Kispert IS still here.

And I am not sure if you noticed but Kispert and Norvell play different positions.

Don’t get me wrong. I have always liked Zach but I fail to see why you felt the need to start this “comparison” thread which I feel is deserving of the one star that it has achieved.

Hoopaholic
01-02-2020, 09:13 AM
As the author of this thread, I'm neither "concerned" about Kispert (hence I started the thread explaining how impressed and happy I was with him) nor did I start it just because of how Kispert played vs Detroit Mercy. Ignore that game, in which he went 1-5 (20%), and the season is 14 games but just 2 games where CK was between 30% and 60% from deep. Maybe it's a statistical aberration due to small sample size (15 games) and the 2nd half of the year he scores 10-15 regularly and shoots 30%-50% a lot of nights.

I started it because on a game-to-game timeframe (not within the same game) Kispert's scoring and his 3pt% have been mostly way above or way below average, but I hadn't read anyone describe him as streaky. If his play through 15 games this year isn't "streaky" (and moreso than Norvell on a game-by-game basis) then what would be?

chart the unmeaningful games versus big time games and we might see a different picture emerge...ie deferral during non critical opponents

bballbeachbum
01-02-2020, 09:41 AM
Norvell - 3.8 assists per 40 minutes

Kispert - 1.7 assists per 40 minutes

narratives are sticky things.

so is the difference between stats and analysis

bballbeachbum
01-02-2020, 09:41 AM
Kispert is shooting 44% from three this year. Zach never averaged over 37%

Zach isn’t here. He left. Kispert IS still here.

And I am not sure if you noticed but Kispert and Norvell play different positions.

Don’t get me wrong. I have always liked Zach but I fail to see why you felt the need to start this “comparison” thread which I feel is deserving of the one star that it has achieved.

+1

jazzdelmar
01-02-2020, 10:04 AM
so is the difference between stats and analysis

And eyeballs.

LTownZag
01-02-2020, 10:35 AM
chart the unmeaningful games versus big time games and we might see a different picture emerge...ie deferral during non critical opponents

Do you see a different picture emerge as described? I don't see much correlation between opponent and performance but I'm certainly open to that idea.

https://i.ibb.co/VQPy7MH/Screen-Shot-2020-01-02-at-11-26-58-AM.png

Bright spots VS Oregon, UNC and also Alabama State, Mississippi State.

Worst nights VS Michigan, Texas A&M, and also Detroit, Bakersfield

Reborn
01-02-2020, 10:52 AM
[QUOTE=TexasZagFan;1492821]When you have 7 players scoring in double figures, you're going to have those up and down nights./QUOTE]

Every game is different, and the needs of each players' performances is different based on what the opposing team is doing on defense. As is pointed out in the post that I'm quoting, Gonzaga has 7 players who can all score in double figures and depending on the needs of the team in each game, these 7 players will perform differently from game to game. I think this idea of streakiness in describing Corey Kispert's performances could be said about every player on the team. Petrusev may be the exception, and since Gonzaga's offensive is built around low post scoring, Petrusive will be depended on more than any one player. Petrusev's substitute is Timme, and what I said about Petrusev could be said about Timme. His 11 pts per game have been pretty consistent. AND neither of these two players shoot from the outside, so it would seem obvious that their shooting % will be more consistent.

Shooting from behind the 3 point line is very difficult, and imo there will be some inconsistency in making that shot from game to game. More important than the idea of streakiness, I feel that the overall average of the shots behind the arc are the important thing to look at. AND Kispert is shooting 43% which is darn good. And the other important thing to me is the FACT that in most all of the most important games Kispert has not only shot well from the outside, but was able to score in many ways. He seems to be the kind of player described by Jazz, "unselfish." He doesn't need to be the highest scorer in EVERY GAME. I like that about him, and I like that about this team. They all seem to be unselfish from game to game. Kind of waiting to see what the defense of the opposing team is doing and then how to combat their schemes.

I also believe it's appropriate to compare his outside shooting to Norvell's. Yes! They do play different positions, but their roles on their teams are the same. They are the primary outside shooter, and 3 point shooter on their respective teams.

I don't feel this thread is worthy of one star. I think it's a good discussion thread, and for me has been something to think about, and to challenge my thinking. AND honestly, I wish the whole idea of giving any thread anything under 3 stars is pure egotistical and if it is going to be rated that low (under 3 stars) I feel we deserve to know who's doing the rating. At least LTownZag is trying to give us something to discuss, and I appreciate his effort to do so (which is more than some of the posters here on this forum do, imo).

zaguarxj
01-02-2020, 10:54 AM
Out of 15 games, he has just one game of shooting between 30% and 50% from 3pt range.
He has shot over 80% 4 times and under 20% 4 times.


I think this is extremely interesting. It's unfortunate that not much of the discussion has actually addressed the OP. There might be a correlation to how the defense is playing him or what type of defender is defending him (smaller vs bigger?). I'm hoping that one of our more observant posters has noticed a common factor.

cjm720
01-02-2020, 11:00 AM
Yea not worried a bit. If we had more than one loss, I might change my opinion.

Ladyzag12
01-02-2020, 11:10 AM
I think it is purely statistical noise. Kispert takes no off the dribble threes and his shot motion is so consistent that when he misses he only misses short or long, not side to side which is the sign of a bad release.

LTownZag
01-02-2020, 11:29 AM
Petrusev's substitute is Timme, and what I said about Petrusev could be said about Timme. His 11 pts per game have been pretty consistent. AND neither of these two players shoot from the outside, so it would seem obvious that their shooting % will be more consistent.

Timme averaging 9.8 but his game to game totals are very consistent for sure. I bet you're right about post players in general with less variance than perimeter scorers.


https://i.ibb.co/JvJB1CY/Screen-Shot-2020-01-02-at-12-18-37-PM.png







AND Kispert is shooting 43% which is darn good. And the other important thing to me is the FACT that in most all of the most important games Kispert has not only shot well from the outside, but was able to score in many ways.

29% (3-17) against Michigan, WA & AZ. But 10-14 (71%) vs Oregon & UNC. I don't see a correlation between opponent quality and CK 3pt%.

I agree that this year CK has been able to score more in other ways, and contribute more in non-scoring ways. He remains an excellent FT shooter on a bad FT shooting team. He is now making more than twice as many FT attempts as last year.




I think it's a good discussion thread, and for me has been something to think about, and to challenge my thinking. AND honestly, I wish the whole idea of giving any thread anything under 3 stars is pure egotistical and if it is going to be rated that low (under 3 stars) I feel we deserve to know who's doing the rating. At least LTownZag is trying to give us something to discuss, and I appreciate his effort to do so (which is more than some of the posters here on this forum do, imo).

Thanks, Reborn!

bartruff1
01-02-2020, 11:45 AM
That sums up nicely the 30 minutes or so of research I just did...

I do not remember a game Zack ever shot Gonzaga out of ...…Did you find some………????? I do remember some very important games he shot the dagger....

All three point shooters are streaky...…. even Curry....I believe Zack was doing what he was recruited to do...and so is Kispert…

We are blessed to have them play at Gonzaga..

Markburn1
01-02-2020, 12:30 PM
"29% (3-17) against Michigan, WA & AZ. But 10-14 (71%) vs Oregon & UNC. I don't see a correlation between opponent quality and CK 3pt%." LTOWN

Your insistence on using numbers to define everything is an obsession with you. Sometimes numbers can tell a tale and sometimes they are misleading.

Michigan, Washington and Arizona have different defensive schemes, different qualities of players that may have guarded Kispert and different game plans and adjustments within games. To complicate your numbers, those teams where he shot poorly have completely different approaches and athletes than UNC and Oregon where he shot very well. Not to mention different venues, crowd dynamics, etc.

I've seen games where a player shot 50% from the field and had a poor shooting night based on where the shots came from and how poorly the defense played.

Again, numbers are useful in some instances but I guarantee you the coaching staff knows who played well, who shot well and who defended well without going to basketball-reference.com

JPtheBeasta
01-02-2020, 12:38 PM
I do not remember a game Zack ever shot Gonzaga out of ...…Did you find some………????? I do remember some very important games he shot the dagger....

All three point shooters are streaky...…. even Curry....I believe Zack was doing what he was recruited to do...and so is Kispert…

We are blessed to have them play at Gonzaga..
I will agree with you that I don’t recall a game when I blamed Norvell for the loss. I do remember times when taking less bad shots (more high percentage shots) would have helped.

I liked the statement that Norvell shot is out of games, and into games in the same game. He hit some absolutely great important shots and carried the team at times. Creighton is a good example of that. I don’t think anyone could have truly shot last year’s team out of games because of how talented it was on the whole.

DZ
01-02-2020, 12:40 PM
I think it is purely statistical noise. Kispert takes no off the dribble threes and his shot motion is so consistent that when he misses he only misses short or long, not side to side which is the sign of a bad release.

I just learned something.

LTownZag
01-02-2020, 01:16 PM
"29% (3-17) against Michigan, WA & AZ. But 10-14 (71%) vs Oregon & UNC. I don't see a correlation between opponent quality and CK 3pt%." LTOWN

Your insistence on using numbers to define everything is an obsession with you.

Although I don't completely agree with your characterization, I gather you find that characterization to be insulting rather than laudatory.

Markburn1
01-02-2020, 01:45 PM
Although I don't completely agree with your characterization, I gather you find that characterization to be insulting rather than laudatory.

If you based that on percentages vis a vis insulting or laudatory, your observation would be correct. Haha.

bballbeachbum
01-02-2020, 02:35 PM
I think this is extremely interesting. It's unfortunate that not much of the discussion has actually addressed the OP. There might be a correlation to how the defense is playing him or what type of defender is defending him (smaller vs bigger?). I'm hoping that one of our more observant posters has noticed a common factor.

narratives...that was the fun that started it, like the narrative that numbers reveal all :) it's all fun

anyway, the OP was a lot that hopefully streaky CK showed up for the BYU SMC games and here are numbers...not what you are suggesting, which is why he may shoot well in different situations, which would take more analysis...which is what I said, what you said

anyway, Markburn making sense to me and what GoZags touched on which was many of the differences in comparing Zach with CK among other things, which was also in the OP, and with LadyZag being specific re. shot selection, and I agree with jazz 's comment re. eyeballs. another simple nuance would be 5-8 vs. Oregon but only 4 total shots vs. MI the next day 3rd game in a row

re. the One Star on threads, that's somebody else's game but really who cares? make a sweet post in the one star thread, have a nice discussion in agreement or opposition even tho there are lots of feelings here!

LTownZag
01-02-2020, 04:18 PM
I will agree with you that I don’t recall a game when I blamed Norvell for the loss. I do remember times when taking less bad shots (more high percentage he shots) would have helped.

I liked the statement that Norvell shot is out of games, and into games in the same game. He hit some absolutely great important shots and carried the team at times. Creighton is a good example of that. I don’t think anyone could have truly shot last year’s team out of games because of how talented it was on the whole.

Zach only lost 10 games as a Zag.
Small sample size.

-His final 2 losses (WCC tourney, NCAA tourney) He shot 2-15 from 3 (13%) and took the most shots on the team both times.
-He was 4/22 overall (18%) in those 2 losses.
-This Solving Basketball podcast (https://solvingbasketball.libsyn.com/episode-25-jonathan-safir-san-francisco-scouting-gonzaga) with a WCC coach/scout describes how Zach going 1-11 against SMC was key to the tournament upset.

bartruff1
01-02-2020, 04:32 PM
They lost ten games....Mark never blamed the loss to the Gaels on Zack....to say they would have won is not the same as they lost because....

I will give this thread a one star....moving on...

LTownZag
01-02-2020, 05:01 PM
They lost ten games....Mark never blamed the loss to the Gaels on Zack....to say they would have won is not the same as they lost because....

I will give this thread a one star....moving on...

Has coach Mark Few (or any other excellent veteran coach) ever publicly blamed a loss on a specific player? (and as a reminder, I am not "blaming" those 2 losses on ZN either, but they were clear examples of his high volume streaky shooting being a factor in a loss).

I'm sorry if you don't like threads or topics that are highly data or stat driven. I hope others do like them. I enjoy discussing and comparing numbers. I didn't write this thread to make any point or statement other than share Kispert's scoring and 3pt totals. I'm sympathetic to LadyZag's point of view that so far it's just statistical noise. Simply don't read them if you don't like them.

I don't like the "Foo" or most recruiting topics. I never enjoy reading random score prediction threads. So I don't read them. I could read them and denigrate them and downvote or denigrate them, but why?