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View Full Version : How many Woodens would GU have, if?



jazzdelmar
08-02-2019, 09:31 AM
Midsummer question: How many Woodens would GU have if every player stayed 4 years? I will start with the ez one: Ammo. Now, consider the award is political to a great extent and charisma, leadership, PR are as if not more important than talent. So have it, how many early entries would have WON the Wooden as the best in CBB; not 2d, 3d, etc.

meadgrad02
08-02-2019, 10:03 AM
I could certainly see Morrie, Sabonis, and Collins winning it. Possibly NWG too.

bartruff1
08-02-2019, 10:27 AM
Who are you going to take it away from ????

jazzdelmar
08-02-2019, 10:46 AM
Who are you going to take it away from ????

Duh. Less worthy recipients.

bartruff1
08-02-2019, 10:53 AM
Duh. Less worthy recipients.

For example ??? They all look pretty worthy to me...Duh...

IowaSERE
08-02-2019, 10:56 AM
For example ??? They all look pretty worthy to me...Duh...

Assuming that all of the other players also had to stay 4 years, I don't believe that anyone besides possibly Morrison would have won.

bartruff1
08-02-2019, 11:13 AM
Kevin Durant won in 2007

IowaSERE
08-02-2019, 11:42 AM
Kevin Durant won in 2007

Would Morrison as a SR have beat Durant as a Freshman? Bogut would also have been a SR and he won it 2 years prior as a Soph.

IowaSERE
08-02-2019, 11:55 AM
Sabonis would have had to beat the SR class of Towns, Russell and Okafer, he would be a JR, Simmons and Ingram would be Soph, and Fultz, Ball, Tatum, and Jackson would be Freshmen.

Dont see him winning either.

IowaSERE
08-02-2019, 12:05 PM
Collins in his Soph year would have to beat out Brunson who won as a JR, Simmons and Ingram who would be Jrs, Sabonis as Sr. etc

I'm sure that I don't have all of the players and their classes correct, but you get my point. I don't think we would have ever won a Wooden if all players had to stay 4 years.

bdmiller7
08-02-2019, 01:06 PM
<1.

LongIslandZagFan
08-02-2019, 01:18 PM
I'd love to sit here and give a number greater than 0... but based on the years and who the Zag players would have been competing with... thinking 0 is the number. Not a knock on the kids, but just a reality

Bogozags
08-02-2019, 01:51 PM
Morrison was a dominant player as a junior...as a Senior he could well have been unstoppable...He is #1

Kelly dominated against everyone as a RS junior and as a senior, playing with Harris, he would have free range in the key and don't know if anyone could guard him...He is #2

Sabonis dominated a #1 draft pick in the Dance his second year and if he had stayed four years he would be a strong choice - probably and 20 & 20 player his senior year. Zach Collins would be coming off the bench his freshman year and possibly starting at the post his 2nd-4th year...I think it would be a close vote, especially with us playing in the NC game and beating UNC...PK, ZC, DS, JWIII, and Tillie with NWG as a junior...Domas could be #3

NWG was dominant every game...most probably had the best year of any PG since John Stockton...He have dominated his senior year and "IF" he developed a keener eye behind the 3pt line could well be #4

Rui and Clark would be playing this coming season and they would dominate again this in the 2019-20 season...Either could be #5

Morrison, Kelly, Sabonis, Rui, and Clark are all 1st round picks and NWG might have worked his way into that line-up as well...

Of course this is all speculative and if these players stayed Collins might not have come to GU and there might be a few other bigs as JWIII might have passed too.

But this is how I see it...

jazzdelmar
08-02-2019, 03:42 PM
It seems to me Ammo, who was a finalist as a junior, would be a 70-30 favorite to win it in his senior year. Coming off his first year at GU, NWG would have been a top 5 favorite his final year. Sabonis as a senior is mind-boggling. Brandon next year would also have been a top 5 favorite.

FloridaZagFan
08-02-2019, 04:27 PM
Unfortunately way to many could have, shold have's. Every other school that has talented kids leave early could ask the same question. Fun topic but really not possible to come to a quantifiable answer.

maynard g krebs
08-02-2019, 05:18 PM
If coach had put me in in the fourth quarter, we'd have won state, I'd have gone pro and found my soulmate.

I can throw a football over them mountains.

OntZags
08-02-2019, 08:55 PM
It seems to me Ammo, who was a finalist as a junior, would be a 70-30 favorite to win it in his senior year. Coming off his first year at GU, NWG would have been a top 5 favorite his final year. Sabonis as a senior is mind-boggling. Brandon next year would also have been a top 5 favorite.

I'd say Clarke is a pretty clear top-3 candidate alongside Howard/Winston if he came back. His advanced analytic stats would be off the chart. For that matter Rui too would be way up in the discussion if he came back. Norvell would even have been a darkhorse candidate if the stars aligned.

Morrison would have had to beat out freshman Durant. I'm sure his stats would have been better but Durant would have had the Hall Of Fame freight train hype going. The fact that Gonzaga beat Texas H2H without Adam makes me think your 70/30 odds are pretty fair.

NWG would have been in contention but Brunson was a beast and I don't think Nigel was enough for GU to be better than Villanova that season. I'd give NGW like 35% chance.

Senior Sabonis is that same year as Brunson and agreed, he would've manhandled college basketball. He would have been a clear favourite. (and GU would have hands down won the National title too if he stayed for junior season and they managed to grab Matthews as well)

Senior Olynyk would have had a dogfight with Senior Doug McDermott. I think senior Olynyk would have been more impactful but Dougie stats may have prevailed. It would have been close though.

Senior Collins would be this season. While he's struggled offensively in the NBA he has made enormous strides defensively. And at the college level he would be dominant right now. He would be the favourite for best player this coming season. (though he may get 'outstats' by Howard especially)

IowaSERE
08-02-2019, 09:30 PM
I'd say Clarke is a pretty clear top-3 candidate alongside Howard/Winston if he came back. His advanced analytic stats would be off the chart. For that matter Rui too would be way up in the discussion if he came back. Norvell would even have been a darkhorse candidate if the stars aligned.

Morrison would have had to beat out freshman Durant. I'm sure his stats would have been better but Durant would have had the Hall Of Fame freight train hype going. The fact that Gonzaga beat Texas H2H without Adam makes me think your 70/30 odds are pretty fair.

NWG would have been in contention but Brunson was a beast and I don't think Nigel was enough for GU to be better than Villanova that season. I'd give NGW like 35% chance.

Senior Sabonis is that same year as Brunson and agreed, he would've manhandled college basketball. He would have been a clear favourite. (and GU would have hands down won the National title too if he stayed for junior season and they managed to grab Matthews as well)

Senior Olynyk would have had a dogfight with Senior Doug McDermott. I think senior Olynyk would have been more impactful but Dougie stats may have prevailed. It would have been close though.

Senior Collins would be this season. While he's struggled offensively in the NBA he has made enormous strides defensively. And at the college level he would be dominant right now. He would be the favourite for best player this coming season. (though he may get 'outstats' by Howard especially)

Sr Clarke vs soph Zion? Just don't see it happening

OntZags
08-02-2019, 09:53 PM
Sr Clarke vs soph Zion? Just don't see it happening

For sure Zion wins it. I just thought the silly game was our guys stay and everyone else leaves as happened. :D

All of my mentions would have been dwarfed by player x/y/z. We've had some great players but nobody wins a Wooden if every school's players' play the full 4 years. Could you imagine a senior Kevin Durant (who averaged over 30ppg in the NBA that season) against the 2010 Gonzaga team? It'd be a bloodbath lol.

jazzdelmar
08-02-2019, 10:09 PM
My conceit only related to GU players. Not if and when LeBron was a senior, geez. Or if Kevin Durant played as a fifth in year at Brooklyn.....college

ZagRecruitWatch
08-02-2019, 11:34 PM
Its funny people are throwing out NWG's name when he couldn't even play better then Joel Berry. Straight up delusion.

bartruff1
08-03-2019, 06:44 AM
If we had some eggs...… we could have some bacon and eggs......if we had some bacon....

jazzdelmar
08-03-2019, 07:09 AM
If we had some eggs...… we could have some bacon and eggs......if we had some bacon....

".....but we need the eggs."

bartruff1
08-03-2019, 07:14 AM
Good morning.....it means we got nothing.....but that is ok....it was fun anyway...

Zagdawg
08-03-2019, 07:34 AM
Looking for honest feedback --- which state fair is better to take the kids to the Spokane fair or the fair in CDA?


Also did the Zags go to Camp Goodtimes already this summer--I did not see any pictures posted yet.

cjm720
08-03-2019, 07:42 AM
Ammo
Olynyk
Hachimura or Clarke

LongIslandZagFan
08-03-2019, 07:53 AM
If coach had put me in in the fourth quarter, we'd have won state, I'd have gone pro and found my soulmate.

I can throw a football over them mountains.


This post really needed a pic of Uncle Rico

https://media1.tenor.com/images/528a6756e6382365de46277fac30c61b/tenor.gif?itemid=11805404

DixieZag
08-03-2019, 08:31 AM
Off season, entirely harmless thread. Enjoy the debate, take stuff like this less seriously.

jazzdelmar
08-03-2019, 09:06 AM
No off season for Bart’s rapier like wit.


Off season, entirely harmless thread. Enjoy the debate, take stuff like this less seriously.

BurgessEraZag
08-03-2019, 12:48 PM
Fun thread, but if pigs and elephants had wings they could fly too!

mgadfly
08-03-2019, 01:09 PM
Its funny people are throwing out NWG's name when he couldn't even play better then Joel Berry. Straight up delusion.

Every single player that has ever won the award had a game or two where they were outplayed by someone. NWG, as a junior, was #5 on Kenpom's Player of the Year rankings. We actually know what Joel Berry did as a senior. NWG would have had to regress a TON not to do better than JB did the next year.

NWG had a KP MVP score of 1.461 in 2017. Trae Young won the KP Award in 2018 with a 1.480 (Brunson was at a nearly identical 1.479). If Goss didn't improve at all from junior season to senior season he would have finished third. I think it is EXTREMELY REASONABLE to say (1) that someone would have outplayed Goss in a single game at some point during his senior season and (2) that Goss would have had a legitimate shot at winning one of the player of the year awards.

Olynyk was #6 with a 1.809 as a junior. Russ Smith was the tops in KP the next season with a 1.882. I think it is reasonable to say Olynyk would have had a shot to be in the conversation for player of the year.

Doma was 8th with 1.406. Hart won it (KenPom) the next season with a 1.671. I think Sabonis would have been in the conversation for player of the year the next two seasons had he stayed the full four.

Rui was 10th and Clark 5th. I don't know why both of them wouldn't be in the conversation had they come back.

To me, I wouldn't bet on any single one of them to be player of the year had they returned. Who knows with injuries and what not. But if we are assuming our guys returned and the rest of the guys went to the NBA or whatever they did, then I think we'd have 1 or 2 players of the year at this point and probably a 1 or 2 national championships. If I had to rank the guys in order of who was most likely to win the award:

1. Sabonis (he had two more seasons and he would have been impossible to stop as a senior)
2. Ammo (maybe he couldn't beat Durant in 2007, but the Ammo show was like nothing else when he was a junior, it would have been insane the next year.)
3. Clark
4. NWG
5. Collins (three seasons, who knows. He would have been great as a senior though since he was pretty dang good as a freshman)
6. Olynyk
7. Rui
8. Turiaf (almost no chance)
9. Norvell (no chance)
10. Daye (no chance)

Am I missing someone?

jazzdelmar
08-03-2019, 01:42 PM
Super, Gad.


Every single player that has ever won the award had a game or two where they were outplayed by someone. NWG, as a junior, was #5 on Kenpom's Player of the Year rankings. We actually know what Joel Berry did as a senior. NWG would have had to regress a TON not to do better than JB did the next year.

NWG had a KP MVP score of 1.461 in 2017. Trae Young won the KP Award in 2018 with a 1.480 (Brunson was at a nearly identical 1.479). If Goss didn't improve at all from junior season to senior season he would have finished third. I think it is EXTREMELY REASONABLE to say (1) that someone would have outplayed Goss in a single game at some point during his senior season and (2) that Goss would have had a legitimate shot at winning one of the player of the year awards.

Olynyk was #6 with a 1.809 as a junior. Russ Smith was the tops in KP the next season with a 1.882. I think it is reasonable to say Olynyk would have had a shot to be in the conversation for player of the year.

Doma was 8th with 1.406. Hart won it (KenPom) the next season with a 1.671. I think Sabonis would have been in the conversation for player of the year the next two seasons had he stayed the full four.

Rui was 10th and Clark 5th. I don't know why both of them wouldn't be in the conversation had they come back.

To me, I wouldn't bet on any single one of them to be player of the year had they returned. Who knows with injuries and what not. But if we are assuming our guys returned and the rest of the guys went to the NBA or whatever they did, then I think we'd have 1 or 2 players of the year at this point and probably a 1 or 2 national championships. If I had to rank the guys in order of who was most likely to win the award:

1. Sabonis (he had two more seasons and he would have been impossible to stop as a senior)
2. Ammo (maybe he couldn't beat Durant in 2007, but the Ammo show was like nothing else when he was a junior, it would have been insane the next year.)
3. Clark
4. NWG
5. Collins (three seasons, who knows. He would have been great as a senior though since he was pretty dang good as a freshman)
6. Olynyk
7. Rui
8. Turiaf (almost no chance)
9. Norvell (no chance)
10. Daye (no chance)

Am I missing someone?

mgadfly
08-04-2019, 06:25 AM
There is one player in there who stayed all four years. If he'd been given a fifth I would have been very happy.
Every single player that has ever won the award had a game or two where they were outplayed by someone. NWG, as a junior, was #5 on Kenpom's Player of the Year rankings. We actually know what Joel Berry did as a senior. NWG would have had to regress a TON not to do better than JB did the next year.

NWG had a KP MVP score of 1.461 in 2017. Trae Young won the KP Award in 2018 with a 1.480 (Brunson was at a nearly identical 1.479). If Goss didn't improve at all from junior season to senior season he would have finished third. I think it is EXTREMELY REASONABLE to say (1) that someone would have outplayed Goss in a single game at some point during his senior season and (2) that Goss would have had a legitimate shot at winning one of the player of the year awards.

Olynyk was #6 with a 1.809 as a junior. Russ Smith was the tops in KP the next season with a 1.882. I think it is reasonable to say Olynyk would have had a shot to be in the conversation for player of the year.

Doma was 8th with 1.406. Hart won it (KenPom) the next season with a 1.671. I think Sabonis would have been in the conversation for player of the year the next two seasons had he stayed the full four.

Rui was 10th and Clark 5th. I don't know why both of them wouldn't be in the conversation had they come back.

To me, I wouldn't bet on any single one of them to be player of the year had they returned. Who knows with injuries and what not. But if we are assuming our guys returned and the rest of the guys went to the NBA or whatever they did, then I think we'd have 1 or 2 players of the year at this point and probably a 1 or 2 national championships. If I had to rank the guys in order of who was most likely to win the award:

1. Sabonis (he had two more seasons and he would have been impossible to stop as a senior)
2. Ammo (maybe he couldn't beat Durant in 2007, but the Ammo show was like nothing else when he was a junior, it would have been insane the next year.)
3. Clark
4. NWG
5. Collins (three seasons, who knows. He would have been great as a senior though since he was pretty dang good as a freshman)
6. Olynyk
7. Rui
8. Turiaf (almost no chance)
9. Norvell (no chance)
10. Daye (no chance)

Am I missing someone?

NotoriousZ
08-04-2019, 08:06 AM
Off in the distance, you can hear Austin Daye’s mother cursing your name.

MDABE80
08-04-2019, 11:24 AM
Gad excellent post. Looking at this qualitatively, I.m thinking Sabonis, Nigel and certainly Morrison.

jazzdelmar
08-04-2019, 11:51 AM
Gad excellent post. Looking at this qualitatively, I.m thinking Sabonis, Nigel and certainly Morrison.

Agree, Doc. At the least, those 3 would be finalists sitting in the awards audience. KW a dark horse.

MickMick
08-04-2019, 12:38 PM
I personally feel that Clarke is the best total package of the Mark Few era.

You saw how much his shooting form improved in his single year of waiting for eligibility. Give him another season and he would most certainly be the most dominant player in college basketball. His statistics bear this out as well. Only Zion performed at a statistically higher level last year.

I also believe that Clarke will end up being the best pro from this draft class. For three reasons:

1) His motor, dedication to improvement, and smarts. He has continuously improved, dramatically from season to season, since high school. His ceiling is remarkably high.
2) His uncanny ability to get elevated quickly. Once he learns to consistently apply this to the offensive end, watch out! Unstoppable jump shot.
3) He can guard 1-5.

jazzdelmar
08-04-2019, 12:51 PM
MM. Love BC but he doesn’t quite have the charisma that a Wooden winner needs. Ammo had it in spades, the Bonus and NWG were pretty darned charismatic as well.



I personally feel that Clarke is the best total package of the Mark Few era.

You saw how much his shooting form improved in his single year of waiting for eligibility. Give him another season and he would most certainly be the most dominant player in college basketball. His statistics bear this out as well. Only Zion performed at a statistically higher level last year.

I also believe that Clarke will end up being the best pro from this draft class. For three reasons:

1) His motor, dedication to improvement, and smarts. He has continuously improved, dramatically from season to season, since high school. His ceiling is remarkably high.
2) His uncanny ability to get elevated quickly. Once he learns to consistently apply this to the offensive end, watch out! Unstoppable jump shot.
3) He can guard 1-5.

mgadfly
08-04-2019, 01:47 PM
I personally feel that Clarke is the best total package of the Mark Few era.

You saw how much his shooting form improved in his single year of waiting for eligibility. Give him another season and he would most certainly be the most dominant player in college basketball. His statistics bear this out as well. Only Zion performed at a statistically higher level last year.

I also believe that Clarke will end up being the best pro from this draft class. For three reasons:

1) His motor, dedication to improvement, and smarts. He has continuously improved, dramatically from season to season, since high school. His ceiling is remarkably high.
2) His uncanny ability to get elevated quickly. Once he learns to consistently apply this to the offensive end, watch out! Unstoppable jump shot.
3) He can guard 1-5.

Best in this draft class counting Zion? Zion wasn't even born in the same century as Clarke. Where will he be in four years? Clarke is a great player, but we shouldn't forget (at least when talking about potential) that he is a lot older than most of the other guys that went early in the draft class. I would guess his upside was one of the bigger question marks since he is 5 years away from his prime season while other lottery picks are 8 (and in Zion's case 9) years from their primes.

SunDevilGolfZag
08-04-2019, 06:08 PM
MM. Love BC but he doesn’t quite have the charisma that a Wooden winner needs. Ammo had it in spades, the Bonus and NWG were pretty darned charismatic as well.

Tillie has the charisma. Maybe he will catch a hot start and ride a wave.

MickMick
08-04-2019, 06:45 PM
MM. Love BC but he doesn’t quite have the charisma that a Wooden winner needs. Ammo had it in spades, the Bonus and NWG were pretty darned charismatic as well.

Charisma? Really?

I have suddenly lost all interest in the Wooden award as well as this topic thread. Have lost all interest in beauty contests. Miss "East of the Mississippi" always seems to win.

jazzdelmar
08-04-2019, 07:15 PM
Charisma? Really?

I have suddenly lost all interest in the Wooden award as well as this topic thread. Have lost all interest in beauty contests. Miss "East of the Mississippi" always seems to win.

In fact:

New York and California have produced six Miss Americas each. Pennsylvania and Illinois have each produced five. Each state only sends one contestant to the pageant per year, so theoretically their odds of winning are the same. But from a practical standpoint, having a larger population gives you a larger talent pool to draw from. Bigger states likely have more competitive state-level competitions, so their odds of producing a contestant with the skills and qualities valued in the national competition is greater.

But then you get a state like Oklahoma, which has a tenth the population of California but has produced just as many winners. Southern states, like Alabama and Mississippi, also might be overrepresented in the win totals.

GrizZAG
08-04-2019, 07:15 PM
Maybe charisma isn't quite the right word. Perhaps Star Power appeal maybe?