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SLOZag
05-08-2019, 09:42 AM
When we think about our current commits and recruits, the temptation is to use that ranking to try to predict how well they will do at GU and beyond. But is that always the best predictor of success? Here is a test for the believers: According to 247 Sports, the #1 and #2 highest ranked players to come thru GU have been Collins and Daye. So far, not a bad predictor of success. But who was our 3rd highest ranked player to come thru GU? No peeking at the answer until you guess.



...



Who guessed Davis? As in Theo Davis? https://247sports.com/college/gonzaga/Season/2020-Basketball/Commits/

We all can enjoy the upturn in GU's recruiting of highly ranked players, but we need to remember that rankings are not the only predictor of success. Meanwhile, enjoy scanning the list to see how our welps' rankings compare with their predecessors.

jazzdelmar
05-08-2019, 09:57 AM
So these projections are not infallible? ;)

bdmiller7
05-08-2019, 10:14 AM
You never know how kids will turn out. I looked the other day to see how highly David Jenkins was rated coming out of high school since he was from Tacoma. On 247 composite the top three players in WA that year were Sam Cunliffe, JaQuori McLaughlin, and Keith Smith, rated 38, 95, and 104 respectively. David Jenkins was 6th in WA and 278 nationally. Malachin Flynn was 8th in WA and 293 nationally. Those two have been much better in college than expected, while the others, especially Cunliffe have been underwhelming.

Spike#1
05-08-2019, 10:42 AM
Interesting to note that in the 247sports.com link that was provided in the OP, Sabonis is not on the list of top 20 GU recruits??? What? Is that because he had no official ranking coming from overseas? Can't imagine that Sabonis is not on that list.

caldwellzag
05-08-2019, 10:46 AM
You have to also remember that recruiting services back in 2006 were not the same as they are now. There are so many more resources that we have to evaluate recruits. That does not mean they always get it right, just means more often that not it is a good predictor of success in college.

jazzdelmar
05-08-2019, 10:50 AM
Interesting to note that in the 247sports.com link that was provided in the OP, Sabonis is not on the list of top 20 GU recruits??? What? Is that because he had no official ranking coming from overseas? Can't imagine that Sabonis is not on that list.

The Bonus was beyond mere lists.....:)

exclusivelee
05-08-2019, 01:57 PM
If you go by individual sites, these are the only Zags rated as 5 star prospects in the final rankings:

1. Austin Daye (Rivals #25 (https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2007/austin-daye-40580))
2. Domantas Sabonis (247Sports #26 (https://247sports.com/Player/Domantas-Sabonis-47202/high-school-79356/))
3. Zach Collins (247Sports #20 (https://247sports.com/Player/Zach-Collins-58868/?Institution=23756) & Rivals #21 (https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2016/zach-collins-480))
4. Oumar Ballo (Rivals (https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2019/oumar-ballo-234806))

ZagsObserver
05-08-2019, 03:26 PM
Theo was a 3 star recruit as far as I recall. Don’t know why it shows a 4 next to his profile.

Significant correlation between impact and rating (exclusive of players unrated because they played overseas).

webspinnre
05-08-2019, 03:50 PM
Theo was a 3 star recruit as far as I recall. Don’t know why it shows a 4 next to his profile.

Significant correlation between impact and rating (exclusive of players unrated because they played overseas).

One of the services had him pretty high at one point, I can't remember which. Andy Poling was also very highly ranked for a good time, as was Sean Mallon. There's definitely correlation, but it's no guarantee.

ZagNut08
05-08-2019, 04:52 PM
Believe at the time of commit, Andy Poling was the highest. Obviously, his rankings dropped with his illness, but at the time, especially with the typical recruits Gonzaga was getting during that stretch, it was a huge get and subsequent disappointment. Austin Daye is our highest final ranking player to come to us straight out of HS.

Imagine Micah Downs was pretty high coming out of HS (to Kansas).

gonzagafan62
05-08-2019, 08:31 PM
Believe at the time of commit, Andy Poling was the highest. Obviously, his rankings dropped with his illness, but at the time, especially with the typical recruits Gonzaga was getting during that stretch, it was a huge get and subsequent disappointment. Austin Daye is our highest final ranking player to come to us straight out of HS.

Imagine Micah Downs was pretty high coming out of HS (to Kansas).

Yeah he was a burger boy I believe

webspinnre
05-08-2019, 08:50 PM
Believe at the time of commit, Andy Poling was the highest. Obviously, his rankings dropped with his illness, but at the time, especially with the typical recruits Gonzaga was getting during that stretch, it was a huge get and subsequent disappointment. Austin Daye is our highest final ranking player to come to us straight out of HS.

Imagine Micah Downs was pretty high coming out of HS (to Kansas).

I was taking a summer class at GU when Poling committed, and I saw the news right before class. I came in and told several people, who just looked at me, wondering how I'd know or why I'd care.

WallaWallaZag
05-09-2019, 04:28 AM
If you go by individual sites, these are the only Zags rated as 5 star prospects in the final rankings:

1. Austin Daye (Rivals #25 (https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2007/austin-daye-40580))
2. Domantas Sabonis (247Sports #26 (https://247sports.com/Player/Domantas-Sabonis-47202/high-school-79356/))
3. Zach Collins (247Sports #20 (https://247sports.com/Player/Zach-Collins-58868/?Institution=23756) & Rivals #21 (https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2016/zach-collins-480))
4. Oumar Ballo (Rivals (https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2019/oumar-ballo-234806))

rivals had timme as a 5 star until the most recent update...a few guys reclassifying may have affected him.

caldwellzag
05-09-2019, 06:55 AM
rivals had timme as a 5 star until the most recent update...a few guys reclassifying may have affected him.

Timme actually dropped in several recruiting services due to people reclassifying and others exploding. I would not worry about that, as Timme does not play a ton on the national scene, but when he does he dominates.

zagfan1970
05-09-2019, 08:26 AM
rivals had timme as a 5 star until the most recent update...a few guys reclassifying may have affected him.

What excites me is that Watson should arguably be a 5*(as McDaniels) and Arlauskas could be another over seas Sabonis type rated player. Our 2019 recruiting class was 5th-7th, but I am curious if adding Gilder changes that?

caldwellzag
05-09-2019, 08:54 AM
What excites me is that Watson should arguably be a 5*(as McDaniels) and Arlauskas could be another over seas Sabonis type rated player. Our 2019 recruiting class was 5th-7th, but I am curious if adding Gilder changes that?

It will not change the rating, as those ratings are done off incoming freshman recruits, but he helps us overall.

WallaWallaZag
05-09-2019, 09:38 AM
Timme actually dropped in several recruiting services due to people reclassifying and others exploding. I would not worry about that, as Timme does not play a ton on the national scene, but when he does he dominates.

not worried in the least about timme...but still sucks for a guy to lose a star through no fault of his own.

zagamatic
05-09-2019, 04:42 PM
Wasn't Theo Davis part the other one who was arrested with Heytvelt? I never did hear whether or not it was that or something else as the reason why he left the team. Honestly, I can't remember if he ever played a minute for the Zags? Of course, lately I have a hard time remembering last week

gonzagafan62
05-09-2019, 04:59 PM
Wasn't Theo Davis part the other one who was arrested with Heytvelt? I never did hear whether or not it was that or something else as the reason why he left the team. Honestly, I can't remember if he ever played a minute for the Zags? Of course, lately I have a hard time remembering last week

Yea that was Theo. Think he was kicked off the team, Heytvelt returned the next season

mgadfly
05-10-2019, 12:00 AM
rivals had timme as a 5 star until the most recent update...a few guys reclassifying may have affected him.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/98445/nigel-williams-goss

I think NWG was top ten in ESPN ratings until pretty late. 40th or so in Rivals before finishing around 30th. Id consider NWG, Downs, and Collins as our five star guys. And maybe Daye.

WallaWallaZag
05-10-2019, 12:27 AM
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/98445/nigel-williams-goss

I think NWG was top ten in ESPN ratings until pretty late. 40th or so in Rivals before finishing around 30th. I’d consider NWG, Downs, and Collins as our five star guys. And maybe Daye.

rivals actually has ballo as a 5 star...

gonzagafan62
05-10-2019, 06:01 AM
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/98445/nigel-williams-goss

I think NWG was top ten in ESPN ratings until pretty late. 40th or so in Rivals before finishing around 30th. I’d consider NWG, Downs, and Collins as our five star guys. And maybe Daye.

Sabonis as well. Other than that yes I agree

exclusivelee
05-10-2019, 08:20 AM
5-stars recruits Gonzaga has landed straight out of high school (final rankings only):

Austin Daye (Rivals & ESPN)
Domantas Sabonis (247Sports)
Zach Collins (247Sports & Rivals)
Oumar Ballo (Rivals)

Transfers who were 5-stars in the final rankings:

Micah Downs
Kyle Wiltjer
Nigel Williams-Goss

former1dog
05-10-2019, 08:58 AM
Yea that was Theo. Think he was kicked off the team, Heytvelt returned the next season

Theo was treated the same as Josh. He was suspended from the team and presumably given the opportunity for a chance to get back on the team. He decided to transfer instead of going through the diversion, counseling, community service program Josh went through.

gonzagafan62
05-10-2019, 09:53 AM
Theo was treated the same as Josh. He was suspended from the team and presumably given the opportunity for a chance to get back on the team. He decided to transfer instead of going through the diversion, counseling, community service program Josh went through.

Thank you.