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I was devastated by our loss, as were so many others who pour their hearts into Gonzaga basketball. I had told myself that GU finally had the talent to win a national title, but we got slightly outplayed in a bad matchup in the 4th round of the tournament by a hot team and some iffy refs. Some here have gone so far as to comment that the whole season was retroactively a waste.
Results of the other 3 elite 8 games have reiterated to me how much being a college basketball fan should be about the games that occur prior to the final game of the year for your team, because luck and randomness will play a bigger role in the NCAA tournament than many of us like to think, and a larger role than in any other sports playoffs that are not single-elimination over the course of 6 rounds. The tournament is a great format to draw in the casual viewer, give hope to fans from dozens of teams, and maximize gambling and publicity. It's a hell of a lot of fun. But it's just not a good way to get the year's best teams to be playing during the final weekend or final game of the year.
The 2018-2019 Gonzaga team was great.
But in many years, maybe most years, the best team will not win the title or make the title game. Some years they get lucky and they do. Mediocre teams don't win titles, but neither do top-5 teams not aided by some luck. Last year Villanova, the champions, didn't face a top-10 team until the final game against #9 Michigan. Villanova was the only team in Kenpom's top-8 to make the final 4. In '17 teams ranked 17th and 30th in Kenpom made the final 4, while poor WVU (#3 in Kenpom) and Gonzaga (#1) battled in the third game of the tournament. That's a game I bet GU losses nearly half the time, and it was the third round slugfest. I feel right now that Gonzaga would win at least 3 of 7 against any top-10 team in the nation in a best of 7 series, but I don't think they'd ever go undefeated in such a series, and winning 6 games in a row means going undefeated. A favored team given a free trip to begin the tournament in the elite 8 with outrageously high 3-1 odds against all three of their remaining opponents still has just a 42% chance at winning a title (.75x.75x.75). And by the time the second weekend rolls around, even the lopsided matchups are much closer than 3-1 odds. I've been guilty of placing too much evaluative emphasis on the final game to determine the worthiness of a team despite how much luck is involved, and it has meant that I've overlooked the ways in which a team can be great and have a great year despite not winning a title or making the final 4.
This year's final 4 is an example of the chaotic nature of going deep in March. Getting to the final 4 is not simply a function of being among the best:
Since 1999 when GU has been nationally relevant in Basketball here are some comparisons of teams that undeniably have fielded rosters far more talented (on average) than GU, and how that has translated into titles:
If your team is making it to the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournaments, being ranked #1, is beating or evenly playing other top-ranked teams (we played and clearly belonged in games among 4 of the other top 8 seeds in Duke, Tennessee, UNC and MSU this year), dominating traditional rivals (BYU, UW, SMC) and recruiting high-caliber likable players coached by high-character coaches in beautiful team-oriented basketball, you've arrived at the mountaintop. Doing all of the above with not a single whiff of scandal or dishonesty with players who stay and get to be known by each other, by fans nationally, and the community for 2-5 years is the cherry on top.
Winning a national title, or even making a FF, is immensely luck-dependent regardless of talent and regular season success and Gonzaga's best teams have simply not been lucky as well as being elite. We've had 4 years to the Elite 8 or beyond, and all three completed years have ended in a loss to the eventual national champions. That's unlucky. Of the 3 Elite 8 games we lost, we were leading or just a few points down near the end in each one, proving we belonged with those eventual national champions. Each of these teams could have made the final 4 or the title game with some better luck, different matchups, or different bounces on a couple plays. Any other sweeping narrative or definitive judgement about Gonzaga or our best teams is simply foolish.
It's hard not to look at that missing final hurdle and think it means we don't belong at the top or still have something to prove, but one day one Zags team with a little less skill and a little more luck may get a few bounces or matchups and do what these past teams each certainly could have done by bringing a title to the northwest. That won't make their GU predecessors any less great.
Results of the other 3 elite 8 games have reiterated to me how much being a college basketball fan should be about the games that occur prior to the final game of the year for your team, because luck and randomness will play a bigger role in the NCAA tournament than many of us like to think, and a larger role than in any other sports playoffs that are not single-elimination over the course of 6 rounds. The tournament is a great format to draw in the casual viewer, give hope to fans from dozens of teams, and maximize gambling and publicity. It's a hell of a lot of fun. But it's just not a good way to get the year's best teams to be playing during the final weekend or final game of the year.
The 2018-2019 Gonzaga team was great.
- Beat the #1 team on a neutral court to win the premiere non-conference tournament
- Spent multiple weeks in early season and in late season ranked #1
- Went undefeated in conference regular season, setting a record for scoring margin
- Earned a #1 seed and 3 tournament wins
- Set player records for individual single-season blocks, shooting percentage, and career assists
- Had players earns All American and Cousy Award finalist nods
- Will likely have two players in the first round of the NBA daft, continuing to draw attention to Gonzaga domestically and globally
But in many years, maybe most years, the best team will not win the title or make the title game. Some years they get lucky and they do. Mediocre teams don't win titles, but neither do top-5 teams not aided by some luck. Last year Villanova, the champions, didn't face a top-10 team until the final game against #9 Michigan. Villanova was the only team in Kenpom's top-8 to make the final 4. In '17 teams ranked 17th and 30th in Kenpom made the final 4, while poor WVU (#3 in Kenpom) and Gonzaga (#1) battled in the third game of the tournament. That's a game I bet GU losses nearly half the time, and it was the third round slugfest. I feel right now that Gonzaga would win at least 3 of 7 against any top-10 team in the nation in a best of 7 series, but I don't think they'd ever go undefeated in such a series, and winning 6 games in a row means going undefeated. A favored team given a free trip to begin the tournament in the elite 8 with outrageously high 3-1 odds against all three of their remaining opponents still has just a 42% chance at winning a title (.75x.75x.75). And by the time the second weekend rolls around, even the lopsided matchups are much closer than 3-1 odds. I've been guilty of placing too much evaluative emphasis on the final game to determine the worthiness of a team despite how much luck is involved, and it has meant that I've overlooked the ways in which a team can be great and have a great year despite not winning a title or making the final 4.
This year's final 4 is an example of the chaotic nature of going deep in March. Getting to the final 4 is not simply a function of being among the best:
- There were 4 different teams ranked #1 this year. Each was #1 for at least 4 weeks, so none was a fluke or pretender. None of the 4 teams is now in the final 4.
- Of the 4 teams in the final 4, only UVA was EVER ranked a 4th or better and with 5 seconds left in their E8 game, their win probability was low single digits. The next best team by rankings, MSU, had a single week at #5.
- 2 of 4 teams in this year's FF were unranked for multiple weeks, Auburn was unranked 3 weeks ago, was a lucky bounce from losing to a 12 seed in their first game, and has now eliminated #1 UNC and #2 UK, and beat #2 Tenn in their final pre-tournament game.
- If UVA didn't make their crazy circus-shot buzzer beater against Purdue, or hold off Oregon with some lucky bounces, the final four teams would have spent more time unranked this year than ranked anything above 9th.
Since 1999 when GU has been nationally relevant in Basketball here are some comparisons of teams that undeniably have fielded rosters far more talented (on average) than GU, and how that has translated into titles:
- Kansas has 10 Elite 8s, 9 years as a #1 seed, and a 1 title
- Kentucky has 10 Elite 8s, 5 years as a #1 seed, and a 1 title
- Entire current PAC-12: 15 Elite 8s, no titles
- Entire current Big 12 (outside Kansas): 20 Elite 8s, no titles
- Gonzaga has 4 Elite 8s, no titles
If your team is making it to the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournaments, being ranked #1, is beating or evenly playing other top-ranked teams (we played and clearly belonged in games among 4 of the other top 8 seeds in Duke, Tennessee, UNC and MSU this year), dominating traditional rivals (BYU, UW, SMC) and recruiting high-caliber likable players coached by high-character coaches in beautiful team-oriented basketball, you've arrived at the mountaintop. Doing all of the above with not a single whiff of scandal or dishonesty with players who stay and get to be known by each other, by fans nationally, and the community for 2-5 years is the cherry on top.
Winning a national title, or even making a FF, is immensely luck-dependent regardless of talent and regular season success and Gonzaga's best teams have simply not been lucky as well as being elite. We've had 4 years to the Elite 8 or beyond, and all three completed years have ended in a loss to the eventual national champions. That's unlucky. Of the 3 Elite 8 games we lost, we were leading or just a few points down near the end in each one, proving we belonged with those eventual national champions. Each of these teams could have made the final 4 or the title game with some better luck, different matchups, or different bounces on a couple plays. Any other sweeping narrative or definitive judgement about Gonzaga or our best teams is simply foolish.
It's hard not to look at that missing final hurdle and think it means we don't belong at the top or still have something to prove, but one day one Zags team with a little less skill and a little more luck may get a few bounces or matchups and do what these past teams each certainly could have done by bringing a title to the northwest. That won't make their GU predecessors any less great.
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