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LTownZag
03-27-2019, 06:31 PM
Much of the analysis on TV, Radio, and online via professionals and fans alike has focused on FSU's depth as a big advantage over GU. This was crafted based on a roster that existed in the ACC tournament. Now I think that analysis is wrong.

Due to injury and family issues FSU is now missing the #3 and likely #6 player (https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Hamilton-bleak-on-Nichols-return-for-Gonzaga-507743211.html)(by minutes played since conference play began). Both of these guys had been healthy playing during FSU's run in the ACC and ACC tournament.

With Cofer gone they have just three players 6'8" or taller and all could have serious foul issues since being forced into more minutes. (All 3 together they only averaged 49MPG) while each commits 5.7, 5, and 4.8 fouls per/40. (for reference BC and Rui average 3.2 & 2.6 fouls). That leaves a team that was going fairly deep now looking a little shallow and needing to adjust in a hurry, especially since they never play their two tallest players together. I think they'll have to put Mann (6'7" wing/guard) on one of our forwards, with Gray (6'8" Freshman) suddenly needing to fill a lot of Cofer's minutes.

During their 18 ACC games FSU essentially played 10 guys . It was 7 guys whom each averaged 15-31MPG, and the last 3 guys did not even get Jeremy Jones minutes (all 12 or under) (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/florida-state/2019.html#all_totals_conf).

Losing 2 players puts them at 8 guys who will see the floor, and 3 of those 8 (Savoy, Gray, Vassell) all had 12minutes or less in conference play.

Given FSU's now 3-person bench, and given GU with a healthy Tillie, Crandall, and Jones and Petrusev (unlikely, I know) I don't think FSU is deeper than GU, and there's a reasonable possibility that their now-shortened bench will force at least their post defenders into some serious foul trouble since they aren't used to being needed for 30+ minutes.


Things I am NOT saying:

GU will Win.
GU Will Lose.
The game will be easy.
FSU won't get more bench points and minutes than GU.

adoptedzag
03-27-2019, 06:40 PM
Much of the analysis on TV, Radio, and online via professionals and fans alike has focused on FSU's depth as a big advantage over GU. I think that analysis is wrong.

Due to injury and family issues FSU is now missing the #3 and likely #6 player (https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Hamilton-bleak-on-Nichols-return-for-Gonzaga-507743211.html)(by minutes played since conference play began). Both of these guys had been healthy playing during FSU's run in the ACC and ACC tournament.

With Cofer gone their three players 6'8" or taller could have serious foul issues since being forced into more minutes all together they only averaged 49MPG) while each commits 5.7, 5, and 4.8 fouls per/40. (for reference BC and Rui average 3.2 & 2.6 fouls). That leaves a team that was going fairly deep now looking a little shallow and needing to adjust in a hurry, especially since they never play their two tallest players together. I think they'll have to put Mann (6'7" wing/guard) on one of our forwards.

During their 18 ACC games FSU essentially played 10 guys . It was 7 guys whom each averaged 15-31MPG, and the last 3 guys did not even get Jeremy Jones minutes (all 12 or under) (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/florida-state/2019.html#all_totals_conf).

Losing 2 players puts them at 8 guys who will see the floor, and 3 of those 8 (Savoy, Gray, Vassell) all had 12minutes or less in conference play.

Given FSU's now 3-person bench, and given GU with a healthy Tillie, Crandall, and Jones and Petrusev (unlikely, I know) I don't think FSU is deeper than GU, and there's a reasonable possibility that their now-shortened bench will force at least their post defenders into some serious foul trouble since they aren't used to being needed for 30+ minutes.


Things I am NOT saying:

GU will Win.
GU Will Lose.
The game will be easy.
FSU won't get more bench points and minutes than GU.

QFT

raise the zag
03-27-2019, 07:09 PM
Watch out for Raiquen Gray.

6'8" 260lbs.

His minutes have increased exponentially with injuries as of late.

He is having his moment, also, been a pleasant surprise from 3pt as of late.

Quick hands on defense, raw strength, stands his ground, takes up space, & has a nice touch.

Came out of nowhere yet been a revelation given injuries to Cofer.

In some ways, out playing/performing Cofer and able to bang, defend, and play down low.

In his most recent game vs Murray St:

25 mins, 11 pts, 3 rebs, 5 steals, 3-4 3pt.

Not overly skilled yet with his post moves yet a big body who naturally alters the game, and the missing piece when Kabengele goes out and pair alongside the big guy.

Again, not the most efficient guy from a box score standpoint, yet when you watch the games, you see how much he impacts today.

A great example of feel/observation vs stat/#'s, which Coach Leonard said the same recently, "numbers don't tell the whole story or determine who plays and who doesn't, sometimes is the guy who ball screens the best..." when asked how he determines starter minutes vs playing 5 guys on the bench.

nolefromeightfiveoh
03-27-2019, 07:15 PM
I would just say that the numbers don't tell the whole story, and I wouldn't really expect you to know it unless you watched every one of our games, minute for minute.

We've had nine different guys be our leading scorer in a game this year. Cofer and Nichols are in that group but conversely, Gonzaga has had 4 different guys lead them in scoring for the game. We have our leading scorer coming off the bench, which is unorthodox but Hamilton has his reasons. Even though guys may not be playing longer minutes, that doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to suffer physically in the game, but it is still a valid point. We just have an innate ability to find a mix depending on the game, of guys that give us our best opportunity to win. Hamilton also finds ways to use guys to get minutes when the time is right. We had Murray St beat from about the 12 minute mark of the first half, but during that stretch afterward, Polite and Wilkes both got many minutes and contributed, especially Polite. All of these guys can play, and haven't blinked really in a situation where it would make sense for them to do so.

I imagine that our minute distribution will depend heavily on how Forest is feeling, especially if Nichols can't go. The guys who should get the bulk of the minutes are Forest, Kabengele, Mann, and Walker, subject to foul trouble of course. I think each of these guys plays a minimum of 20 minutes. The rest of the distribution comes down to who is our best rebounding/defensive option based on the Gonzaga personnel. Vassell and Gray should get healthy time, Savoy is a liability but his shooting is a plus. Along with those three, Polite should play as well to give Forest a blow from time to time. If we're struggling in some capacity, Hamilton has lots of options but it will really be important for us to disrupt your offense for most of those options to stay open. We are able to put up big offensive numbers, but not consistently enough for that to be our comfort level.

gonzagafan62
03-27-2019, 07:28 PM
I would just say that the numbers don't tell the whole story, and I wouldn't really expect you to know it unless you watched every one of our games, minute for minute.

We've had nine different guys be our leading scorer in a game this year. Cofer and Nichols are in that group but conversely, Gonzaga has had 4 different guys lead them in scoring for the game. We have our leading scorer coming off the bench, which is unorthodox but Hamilton has his reasons. Even though guys may not be playing longer minutes, that doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to suffer physically in the game, but it is still a valid point. We just have an innate ability to find a mix depending on the game, of guys that give us our best opportunity to win. Hamilton also finds ways to use guys to get minutes when the time is right. We had Murray St beat from about the 12 minute mark of the first half, but during that stretch afterward, Polite and Wilkes both got many minutes and contributed, especially Polite. All of these guys can play, and haven't blinked really in a situation where it would make sense for them to do so.

I imagine that our minute distribution will depend heavily on how Forest is feeling, especially if Nichols can't go. The guys who should get the bulk of the minutes are Forest, Kabengele, Mann, and Walker, subject to foul trouble of course. I think each of these guys plays a minimum of 20 minutes. The rest of the distribution comes down to who is our best rebounding/defensive option based on the Gonzaga personnel. Vassell and Gray should get healthy time, Savoy is a liability but his shooting is a plus. Along with those three, Polite should play as well to give Forest a blow from time to time. If we're struggling in some capacity, Hamilton has lots of options but it will really be important for us to disrupt your offense for most of those options to stay open. We are able to put up big offensive numbers, but not consistently enough for that to be our comfort level.

I was wondering how a Noles fan would respond to this. I tend to agree with you, and there’s not a ton of drop off at all. Let’s be real like you said, Cofer is a huge loss, and a big time leader, but I get from your post that you aren’t exteemely worried based on just that. I feel you think you have others that can step up (and I believe that too)

I’m patiently waiting to see how this plays out before I make a judgement 100% either way. FSU is still a damn good team either way.

LTownZag
03-27-2019, 07:29 PM
Yes, Gray is their third traditional big guy behind Koumadje and Kabengele.

He's a freshman who will likely play a lot tomorrow. The only two games all year when he played 20+ minutes have been the last two with no Cofer, but no decent opposing big guys. In the 2 recent games without Cofer, Gray has averaged 22 minutes and 9 points, up from 11 mins and 3 points during ACC play overall.

That's a matchup I like vs Tillie, Rui, or BC, and assuming either Kabengele or Koumadje will play alongside him, who do they bring in to replace/spell Gray? The kid averaged nearly 6 fouls per 40 minutes.

luckynole92
03-28-2019, 05:03 AM
We will still run a 10+ man rotation as you will see more of Polite and Wilkes in this game. The two injuries hurt, but we will still play with a lot of depth.

Zagger
03-28-2019, 05:18 AM
We will still run a 10+ man rotation as you will see more of Polite and Wilkes in this game. The two injuries hurt, but we will still play with a lot of depth.

Not to be snooty but ..... you'll need that depth. These Zags can run - and run some more. Athletics aside for the moment; this game will very likely be decided by not just fast breaks but also by using the clock well to pick the best shots. If it's a close game in point spread it could also be decided by charity stripe shooting. We can be assured that it will be a very good game that could be decided by a player that missed it last year :) .... Tillie, Tillie!

Best of game to you LN92!

raise the zag
03-28-2019, 05:33 AM
Reviewing every one one of their losses and their big wins today.

2 things jump off the box score pages:

1. Kabengele fouls a ton. In 5 of their 7 losses he had foul trouble. Opponents took advantage down low due to limiting his minutes and opportunities. When he logs mins, he is tremendously efficient and seems to get what he wants if not denied the ball, or riding the pine w/fouls.

2. Florida St is uniquely and incredibly STREAKY. I'm not sure i've ever seen anything quite like it -- both from an individual standpoint and as a team. MJ Walker is a random example (you can choose any of them). He is a Top 25 recruit, McDonald's All American guard for them. He either goes 3-5 from 3pt or 0-5 from 3pt. Just go down the line, FSU isn't a team which always shoots in the 40% range, some nights 35 other nights 50, like Baylor did.

No. They are either 15% or near 50% from 3pt. Hot or cold. On or off.

Have a feeling this is directly related to their [former] 11 man rotation. Guys are either feeding off each other, momentum rolling, shots falling....or they aren't.

Not much middle ground with this team. When their guards are hitting shots, so are their bigs...

Defense plays a role in this, yet FSU isn't a team to really "wait" for an open shot. They either shoot or don't. Take risks. Another reason they are streaky....and also give up a ton of TO's.

When FSU couldn't miss vs Murray St, they were pulling the trigger on deep, contested 3's going in....they had one guard who attempted 8 3's in only 10 mins played.

When they are feeling it, they are hard to stop. We have seen it recently vs Top 3 Defenses like Virgina, or even Murray St.

Those shots weren't really that open, esp vs Virginia. They found ways in transition yet they were simply ON.

Let's hope this is one of their infamous "off" games.

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 06:04 AM
We will still run a 10+ man rotation as you will see more of Polite and Wilkes in this game. The two injuries hurt, but we will still play with a lot of depth.

That would be great for GU. Both those guys are freshmen who have appeared in spot minutes in under half of FSU's games. For Zag fans, this would be like playing Ayayi and Foster for the sake of depth off the bench.

If FSU still plays 10 guys, even 9, for double digit minutes, I think the advantage is to the Zags.

With FSU missing 2 of their top 6 and being not as deep as last year (better a starting 5 though) they will not be playing elite guys when they go to #7, 8, 9, 10.

At some point the idea of depth just for the sake of depth means substituting a more tired much better player for a fresher much worse player. I'd be happy to see FSU take that road.

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 06:10 AM
Reviewing every one one of their losses and their big wins today.

2 things jump off the box score pages:

They are either 15% or near 50% from 3pt. Hot or cold. On or off.


I swear now you're just trolling us with made up information. ;)

FSU has had 4 games shooting 50% or above from 3

FSU has had 4 games shooting below 25% from 3

and 28 games shooting from 25-49% from 3.

INFO (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/florida-state/2019-gamelogs.html)

raise the zag
03-28-2019, 06:22 AM
I swear now you're just trolling us with made up information. ;)

FSU has had 4 games shooting 50% or above from 3

FSU has had 4 games shooting below 25% from 3

and 28 games shooting from 25-49% from 3.

INFO (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/florida-state/2019-gamelogs.html)

Never said an entire season. Focused in on their big wins and big losses which I prefaced.

Also, focusing on trends of Florida St in each game.

I've also heard 3 different fans called them streaky or refer to their hot and cold shooting. I was pointing out Kabenjele fouls a ton & they are streaky shooting team. That is all.

Just look at their 1st two games in NCAA Tourney thus far.

I appreciate your literal, number crunching take regarding every facet of the game, yet there is a gray area to bball...not just stat sheets and decimals. Observation and "feel".

Much like pointing out that Florida St isn't a "fast" team based on their time of possession, or "tempo" stats. However, FSU plays slow(er) tempo when they aren't running, but when they do, they score and run at an overwhelming pace & efficiency. This isn't captured by Kenpom since less than 25% of their possessions are run outs.

FlyZag
03-28-2019, 06:46 AM
Losing Nichols and Cofer from your rotation will hurt, no matter how deep your team is. FSU is a very talented team and no doubts they have the players to step up and fill those minutes. It will however, put them into a situation where maybe they aren't comfortable. Something they aren't used to. Making them play a different way then they have all season. It might be a factor, it might not. Either way, FSU has my full respect. We will need to play our A game to advance. That is "Captain Obvious", obvious. Every team left has a quality opponent in front of them. Survive and advance.

Looking at FSU's schedule the thing that jumped out to me is they are 4-0 in OT games. And those OT games were against NCAA tourney teams. (LSU, Louisville, V Tech x2). That shows they have good coaching and players who know how to execute down the stretch. Then again, will not having those 2 extra bodies hurt them should it be a close game? Time will tell.

Go Zags!

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 07:10 AM
Never said an entire season. Focused in on their big wins and big losses which I prefaced.





Why double down? That claim is still not supported.


Again, it's nothing personal and I have no problem with random idle fun speculation or predictions or hunches or guesses. I love random hunches!

But when you are making an empirical claim to spread information about a record of past events, why not give information that is accurate or close to it?


Reviewing every one one of their losses and their big wins today.

2 things jump off the box score pages:

They are either 15% or near 50% from 3pt. Hot or cold. On or off.


Since you want to talk about how in "every one of their losses and big wins" they are 15% or worse, or 50% or better from 3:

They've only shot those percentages 5 times out of 38 games. They include a single loss and 4 very unremarkable wins ( St. Louis, Miami, Canisius, Syracuse)


In FSU's 7 losses, they've shot below 26% 1 time, and from 26-40% 6 times.

In FSU's 4 OT wins (all were Q1 wins and 3 of the 4 were against sweet 16 teams) They've shot a remarkably consistent 28-38% from 3 each time. Until UVA a couple weeks ago, these were by far their biggest 4 wins.

In FSU's 3 other biggest wins (ACC and NCAA tournament wins over UVA, Vermont, Murray) they've been 25% to 40% each game.

CDC84
03-28-2019, 07:39 AM
First of all, I wish injuries and family deaths on no one, but it is kind of interesting that this is happening to FSU after the Killian Tillie debacle that happened JUST BEFORE the GU/FSU S16 game last March. It just cannot be emphasized enough how powerful of a loss that Killian was, basketball wise, in that contest. In addition to being a huge part of the GU game plan when it came to combating FSU's big men (according to Few after the game), to have such a "sudden" loss occur just before tip ......well, it sent shockwaves throughout the roster, and it forced the staff to reinvent a whole new game plan on the spot. I just knew Gonzaga was going to lose at that point.

However, I think you make an excellent point LTown right here:


Things I am NOT saying:

GU will Win.
GU Will Lose.
The game will be easy.
FSU won't get more bench points and minutes than GU.

As Few has said, even if Killian had played, there was no guarantee that Gonzaga was going to win. But it really hurt their chances. I don't know how much of an advantage GU is going to get from the situation going on at FSU. Especially the Cofer thing, because I have many times seen teams rally around a tragic event like that, which causes the team to play even better.

zagfan24
03-28-2019, 07:44 AM
Enjoying this back and forth about perception of streakiness. As more advanced stats come out, one simple thing I wish would be included more often is standard deviation in addition to averages. In part because a real part of understanding a player or team's performance is knowing how consistent or not they are. In addition, because humans often see patterns and streaks where none or little really exist.

Out of curiosity, ran stats for GU and Florida State.

FG%: GU Avg = 53.1, StDev = .06
FG%: FSU Avg = 44.4, StDev = .07

3Pt%: GU Avg = 35.3, StDev = .095
3Pt%: FSU Avg = 33.9, StDev = .106

FT%: GU Avg = 76.3, StDev = .097
FT%: FSU Avg = 74.7, StDev = .098

So it does appear that the Noles are slightly more variable in their shooting from GU, but probably a negligible difference.

DixieZag
03-28-2019, 07:44 AM
First of all, I wish injuries and family deaths on no one, but it is kind of interesting that this is happening to FSU after the Killian Tillie debacle that happened JUST BEFORE the GU/FSU S16 game last March. It just cannot be emphasized enough how powerful of a loss that Killian was, basketball wise, in that contest. In addition to being a huge part of the GU game plan when it came to combating FSU's big men (according to Few after the game), to have such a "sudden" loss occur just before tip ......well, it sent shockwaves throughout the roster, and it forced the staff to reinvent a whole new game plan on the spot. I just knew Gonzaga was going to lose at that point.

However, I think you make an excellent point LTown right here:



As Few has said, even if Killian had played, there was no guarantee that Gonzaga was going to win. But it really hurt their chances. I don't know how much of an advantage GU is going to get from the situation going on at FSU. Especially the Cofer thing, because I have many times seen teams rally around a tragic event like that, which causes the team to play even better.

Last year was certainly not a shocking upset. One could see the trauma in the team's eyes prior to the game regarding the loss of Tillie. It looked like they were quite stunned.

Absent an injury at shootaround today, we'll not have that "look" - don't know about many of you, but after I saw the look on Few's face just prior to game time, I really never considered that game "winnable." Perhaps had they not closed it at half. Perhaps if we'd managed to get it below 5 … perhaps.

But, this year, FSU seems far better. I know we're far better. This is an E-8 game in everything BUT name. Fair enough, one team has to win, might as well be us.

I have come around to having a pretty good feeling about this one.

I will even better if Zach has 2 threes by the second TV timeout.

MDABE80
03-28-2019, 08:09 AM
Key pieces of data 24. Hard to imaging a FG % of 44%. Not so good. The rest looks to be about equal.
4 big things --------1. Rui's tons better this year and he's consistent...if he'll show up and focus. 2. Norvell must be less of a gunner and be far more accurate. 3. We didn't have Clarke last year for this game. 4. Killian could not play in this game last year.

Our chances look much better with these things considered. Unless something major intervenes, I don't see why we wouldn't win this game even though it's a very tough game.

hooter73
03-28-2019, 08:17 AM
I dont think we can say an FSU guard is streaky and not have most peoples minds come up with a name on GU's starting five roster that starts with a Z...

bballbeachbum
03-28-2019, 08:26 AM
FSU plays lots of players, but some are more key than others, clearly. Hamilton coaches to get to the 2nd half and wear teams down, reminds me of John Thompson in that regard. Everyone goes 110% on D, everybody runs the floor hard in transition, everyone is physical. But Kabengele is the key guy among the key FSU players imo becasue he can score in a variety of ways and can get his own shot. very interested to see what Few and co. have in store for this matchup.

Got to keep the FSU perimeter players off the glass too

bartruff1
03-28-2019, 08:38 AM
Key pieces of data 24. Hard to imaging a FG % of 44%. Not so good. The rest looks to be about equal.
4 big things --------1. Rui's tons better this year and he's consistent...if he'll show up and focus. 2. Norvell must be less of a gunner and be far more accurate. 3. We didn't have Clarke last year for this game. 4. Killian could not play in this game last year.

Our chances look much better with these things considered. Unless something major intervenes, I don't see why we wouldn't win this game even though it's a very tough game.

5. Crandall will have a positive impact...

MDABE80
03-28-2019, 08:41 AM
Sorry Bart. Left his value out. He’s getting much more important. In short we’re much better this year end of season.

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 08:47 AM
Hamilton coaches to get to the 2nd half and wear teams down, reminds me of John Thompson in that regard.

One might think that (I did) but it's also not supported by data. FSU has closer second halves than 1st halves.

FSU's scoring margins (average difference between their points and opponents points):

1st half: FSU +4.3 (37th nationally)
2nd Half: FSU + 3.5 (43rd nationally)

bballbeachbum
03-28-2019, 08:51 AM
One might think that (I did) but it's also not supported by data. FSU has closer second halves than 1st halves.

FSU's scoring margins (average difference between their points and opponents points):

1st half: FSU +4.3 (37th nationally)
2nd Half: FSU + 3.5 (43rd nationally)

Thanks, but that data doesn't speak to my point.

I've watched them at least a dozen times this year, it's exactly how he does it, and it's not a secret either. He plays to get to the 2nd half, uses his bench to try to wear other teams down, and does a great job of it. He's done it this way pretty much his entire career, which I have followed pretty closely.

How many game did you see FSU play this year, last year, over the last 5 years? I've seen a TON, I'm a huge Hamilton fan

bartruff1
03-28-2019, 08:58 AM
Sorry Bart. Left his value out. He’s getting much more important. In short we’re much better this year end of season.

Pure speculation on my part....but I suspect the " regular " players may be feeling some pressure to live up to expectations..... but the guys that transferred in here …...for this very reason...... are eager for the opportunity to play in the Dance….

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 09:03 AM
I must have misunderstood you then. Would you mind clarifying? Obviously I'm not questioning FSU's subbing patterns or bench minutes, which are easy to look up.

But their opponents are doing better against FSU in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.

JPtheBeasta
03-28-2019, 09:18 AM
One might think that (I did) but it's also not supported by data. FSU has closer second halves than 1st halves.

FSU's scoring margins (average difference between their points and opponents points):

1st half: FSU +4.3 (37th nationally)
2nd Half: FSU + 3.5 (43rd nationally)

It would be interesting to see the same data in wins vs losses.

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 09:35 AM
It would be interesting to see the same data in wins vs losses.

Here are their 7 Ls (too lazy to do their 30 Ws)

L to 'Nova: -1, -5

L to UVA: -19, +6

L to Duke: +1, -3

L to Pitt: -2, -9

L to BC: +10, -15

L to UNC: -3, -15

L to Duke: 0, -10

First half of Ls: -14 overall, average -2
Second half of Ls: -51 overall, average -7.3

ZagsGoZags
03-28-2019, 09:37 AM
LTown, thanks for the thread. You may not contribute many posts in 12 years, but this was was informative. Hope you will post more. Including two guys out, compared to D1 average, I would say they can still be called deep (just not as much as they usually do). Agree our depth is comparable for this game.
Reading the message boards of the Seminoles, I find them reasonable usually, and generally not cocky but expecting a war like we are. The edge on being familiar with grinding games goes to Noles. We are not used to it. I like the Nole guy coming in here to discuss, also. He has the feeling about his team not falling off much that we have had almost all season, that we can win (we have) without Tillie, nearly all season, but if he is healthy enough to get minutes it is a big help. I don't see Tillie at 100%, the speed of the game, and subtleties of guarding close without too much fouling, are still in a come back state. If he and Rui bring their motors we win. B. Clark always brings his motor, like Sabonis did.

bballbeachbum
03-28-2019, 09:38 AM
I must have misunderstood you then. Would you mind clarifying? Obviously I'm not questioning FSU's subbing patterns or bench minutes, which are easy to look up.

But their opponents are doing better against FSU in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.

Hey Ltown, fun discussion.

It's Hamilton's philosophy. And here's a great quote from Hamilton addressing our discussion as if we had asked him to ;)


"Once you get to the NCAA tournament, they're not going to say 'Well, because they have so much depth, we're not going to play very hard.' It's going to turn them up," Hamilton said during FSU's shoot around. "Every game takes on a different personality. We're going to be who we are if our depth wears them out, fine. If it doesn't, we've still got to find a way to win.

https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Seminoles-win-by-committee-philosophy-paying-dividends-507441201.html

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 10:27 AM
Hey Ltown, fun discussion.

It's Hamilton's philosophy. And here's a great quote from Hamilton addressing our discussion as if we had asked him to ;)



https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Seminoles-win-by-committee-philosophy-paying-dividends-507441201.html

I'm not questioning what Leonard Hamilton or the media or anyone else believes to be true or what their philosophy is. They might believe in all kinds of things. I'm just looking at what evidence supports or does not.

Does evidence support that FSU plays a deep bench? They are 31st in the country in bench minutes, so I'd say yes.

Does evidence support that FSU is able to wear down, outrun, outplay, and outscore their opponents in the 2nd half? Absolutely not.

FSU is playing closer 2nd halves than 1st halves Not only is FSU having a smaller scoring margin in the 2nd half of games, but their margin is also falling overall when ranked to the field (37th best to 43rd best). This is important since margins overall do fall a bit in 2nd half vs 1st.

I assumed that this narrative was accurate until a few hours ago. I remember thinking that the Zags need to have a lead at halftime, because of course FSU's depth makes them more likely to outscore teams in the 2nd half But that's simply not supported by the scoreboard.

Remaining teams which actually DO show better 2nd halves (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/average-2nd-half-margin) than 1sts (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/average-1st-half-margin)

Texas Tech: 16th biggest margin -> 6th biggest margin

Duke: 12th biggest margin -> 2nd biggest margin

Oregon:54th biggest margin ->18th biggest margin

(I make no claim as to the cause of this. It might be coaching or magical pixie dust. Texas Tech and Duke rank in the bottom 3rd in bench minutes, Oregon near the middle)

For teams still alive who go the other way (big first half margins w/much smaller 2nd half margins)

Tennessee goes from 3rd to 58th

Michigan goes from 6th to 33rd

Those schools are 254 & 350th in bench minutes played.

JPtheBeasta
03-28-2019, 11:22 AM
Here are their 7 Ls (too lazy to do their 30 Ws)

L to 'Nova: -1, -5

L to UVA: -19, +6

L to Duke: +1, -3

L to Pitt: -2, -9

L to BC: +10, -15

L to UNC: -3, -15

L to Duke: 0, -10

First half of Ls: -14 overall, average -2
Second half of Ls: -51 overall, average -7.3

Thx. Good stuff.

DixieZag
03-28-2019, 11:24 AM
So, key stat seems to be keeping them under 38% or so from 3.

If we do that, we likely win. If we don't ...

raise the zag
03-28-2019, 11:30 AM
Speaking of depth, FSU best Purdue, Florida, & LSU (2 of 3 Top 15 teama) without Phil Cofer, and Kabengele playing limited mins due to foul trouble.

In said games, couldn't help but notice FSU draws fouls on opponents bigs at a high clip. All of their opponents forwards and centers were in foul trouble in these non con wins.

Clearly, they know how to play and win without him.

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 11:41 AM
Speaking of depth, FSU best Purdue, Florida, & LSU (2 of 3 Top 15 teama) without Phil Cofer, and Kabengele playing limited mins due to foul trouble.

In said games, couldn't help but notice FSU draws fouls on opponents bigs at a high clip. All of their opponents forwards and centers were in foul trouble in these non con wins.

Clearly, they know how to play and win without him.


Those games were also all in November, Nichols (not playing today) averaged 14 minutes, and 2 of the 3 games went to OT.

(and as it relates to the narrative that FSU excels in the 2nd half -- FSU's first half scoring margin was greater in all 3 games.)

Markburn1
03-28-2019, 11:52 AM
Thanks, but that data doesn't speak to my point.

I've watched them at least a dozen times this year, it's exactly how he does it, and it's not a secret either. He plays to get to the 2nd half, uses his bench to try to wear other teams down, and does a great job of it. He's done it this way pretty much his entire career, which I have followed pretty closely.

How many game did you see FSU play this year, last year, over the last 5 years? I've seen a TON, I'm a huge Hamilton fan

There has to be a balance between data and eye test. Data should be used as a reference point only to supplement what is actually seen.

Beach is correct. I've watched many FSU games. Hamilton is committed to throwing bodies out like hockey line changes in order to wear down the opposition and to probe what matchups might be most effective in the second half.

raise the zag
03-28-2019, 11:55 AM
Those games were also all in November, Nichols (not playing today) averaged 14 minutes, and 2 of the 3 games went to OT.

(and as it relates to the narrative that FSU excels in the 2nd half -- FSU's first half scoring margin was greater in all 3 games.)

On the subject of OT, how many games did FSU play to overtime?

I count (4) but when it comes to #'s, I'm asking you, rather than risk saying one less or one more. This is at 1st fiance.

Was it most in the nation or close to it? Seems like quite a bit. I recall Gonzaga played in 3 games to OT a handful of
yrs ago and it was close to a school record.

Curious...

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 12:01 PM
There has to be a balance between data and eye test. Data should be used as a reference point only to supplement what is actually seen.

Have you read or seen moneyball?


Beach is correct. I've watched many FSU games. Hamilton is committed to throwing bodies out like hockey line changes in order to wear down the opposition and to probe what matchups might be most effective in the second half.

I'm not questioning the rate at which FSU subs in bench players. They rank 31st nationally in bench minutes. I'm not questioning what the coach would like to accomplish, or even what he believes he accomplishes.


I'm looking for any data to support the assertion that their subbing pattern actually DOES wear down opposing teams or provide relative advantage later in games. Do you have any to offer?


Because I've posted relevant data showing the opposite. FSU has a worse 2nd half margin than 1st half margin, both ranked comparatively and in absolute terms.

I also looked at last year, when we played them, and they went from 41st best scoring margin (1st half) to 78th best scoring margin (2nd half). Where is the evidence?

Are opponents having such a hard time keeping up that they play much closer to FSU in 2nd halves than in 1sts?

bballbeachbum
03-28-2019, 12:11 PM
I'm not questioning what Leonard Hamilton or the media or anyone else believes to be true or what their philosophy is. They might believe in all kinds of things. I'm just looking at what evidence supports or does not.

Does evidence support that FSU plays a deep bench? They are 31st in the country in bench minutes, so I'd say yes.

Does evidence support that FSU is able to wear down, outrun, outplay, and outscore their opponents in the 2nd half? Absolutely not.

FSU is playing closer 2nd halves than 1st halves Not only is FSU having a smaller scoring margin in the 2nd half of games, but their margin is also falling overall when ranked to the field (37th best to 43rd best). This is important since margins overall do fall a bit in 2nd half vs 1st.

I assumed that this narrative was accurate until a few hours ago. I remember thinking that the Zags need to have a lead at halftime, because of course FSU's depth makes them more likely to outscore teams in the 2nd half But that's simply not supported by the scoreboard.

Remaining teams which actually DO show better 2nd halves (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/average-2nd-half-margin) than 1sts (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/average-1st-half-margin)

Texas Tech: 16th biggest margin -> 6th biggest margin

Duke: 12th biggest margin -> 2nd biggest margin

Oregon:54th biggest margin ->18th biggest margin

(I make no claim as to the cause of this. It might be coaching or magical pixie dust. Texas Tech and Duke rank in the bottom 3rd in bench minutes, Oregon near the middle)

For teams still alive who go the other way (big first half margins w/much smaller 2nd half margins)

Tennessee goes from 3rd to 58th

Michigan goes from 6th to 33rd

Those schools are 254 & 350th in bench minutes played.

Thanks for all that stats. You did not include the Vermont 1st round game, nor the UVA ACC champ game (won't include Murray Sta., what a blowout). But those very recent results illustrate what they try to do, by your chosen lone metric of scoring differential between 1st half and 2nd half. Nice to be doing it at this time of year.

But, as the quote I provided shows, it's what Hamilton tries to do, and he knows they don't always do it...but he tries to wear the other team down.

your stats show they don't always achieve it, and again, as the quote showed, Hamilton is well aware of it. But again, see their recent couple of victories, and the eye test vs. UVA.

anyway, here's an even cooler article on his approach, totally different than jsut about all, and a big reason why I like him (Few the same, outside the machine of BS). Shows it's literally his approach from jump with his kids.


“When [Hamilton] recruits kids, he’s honest and he doesn’t make promises he doesn’t keep,” Florida State associate head coach Stan Jones said. “He says, ‘If you can help us win, you’re going to play. We’re going to give you a role. We’re going to build a role for you.’ That’s why you don’t see our kids have quitting problems, transfer problems. Coach tells them what they’re going to do and he does what he says. It’s been good to us.”

https://sports.yahoo.com/depth-key-florida-states-stunning-elite-eight-run-164550685.html

Markburn1
03-28-2019, 12:40 PM
Have you read or seen moneyball?



I'm not questioning the rate at which FSU subs in bench players. They rank 31st nationally in bench minutes. I'm not questioning what the coach would like to accomplish, or even what he believes he accomplishes.


I'm looking for any data to support the assertion that their subbing pattern actually DOES wear down opposing teams or provide relative advantage later in games. Do you have any to offer?


Because I've posted relevant data showing the opposite. FSU has a worse 2nd half margin than 1st half margin, both ranked comparatively and in absolute terms.

I also looked at last year, when we played them, and they went from 41st best scoring margin (1st half) to 78th best scoring margin (2nd half). Where is the evidence?

Are opponents having such a hard time keeping up that they play much closer to FSU in 2nd halves than in 1sts?

In reply to Moneyball, when was the last time the A's won a championship?

Here's the thing. You can take numbers and use them to support just about any theory. Your numbers show a difference in efficiency that don't seem to match up with the way they play. But, they don't take into account other factors. Maybe the opposition would have scored even more had they not been worn down. Maybe with fresher legs, the opposition would have held FSU to even fewer points than they did. Maybe the opposition collected fewer offensive rebounds and therefore had fewer opportunities to in crease their advantage in the second half relative to the numbers. Maybe....


Not everything is black and white with data. If it were, we'd all know the score beforehand. Kenpom seems to be a mathematical genius. Even his individual game predictions are rarely correct.

zagfan24
03-28-2019, 12:48 PM
I dont think we can say an FSU guard is streaky and not have most peoples minds come up with a name on GU's starting five roster that starts with a Z...

Would you believe that looking at some of the top 3 pt shooters for each team, the following standard deviations suggest that Zach Norvell is the LEAST variable in terms of his game to game performance this season?


Norvell Avg 37.6, SD = .17
Perkins Avg 34.1, SD = .25
Kipsert Avg 36.5, SD = .24
Savoy Avg 32.3, SD = .25
Walker Avg 32.6, SD = .30
Nichols Avg 25.1, SD = .29

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 01:03 PM
Again, I'm not commenting on what Hamilton thinks he's accomplishing, or Is trying to accomplish, or philosophically is oriented toward. What is his use of a deep bench actually accomplishing? Is it wearing opponents down and gaining late game advantage?

All I'm asking for is any evidence at all (please don't say eye test) that FSUs atypically high use of bench minutes results in an advantage for FSU as the game and fatigue wear on. Instead, over this year and last (feel free to look further) their scoring margins are smaller and rank lower in minutes 21-40 than in minutes 1-20.

raise the zag
03-28-2019, 01:04 PM
Would you believe that looking at some of the top 3 pt shooters for each team, the following standard deviations suggest that Zach Norvell is the LEAST variable in terms of his game to game performance this season?


Norvell Avg 37.6, SD = .17
Perkins Avg 34.1, SD = .25
Kipsert Avg 36.5, SD = .24
Savoy Avg 32.3, SD = .25
Walker Avg 32.6, SD = .30
Nichols Avg 25.1, SD = .29

Interesting. Pretty neat comparison.

But man, he has been cold, by his standards, since that trip to LMU & USD....when he was on a tear.

Hope he finds his stroke again.

He did go 3-8 vs FDU, but the shots rattled in, and/or air balled the misses.

I hope we see him feeling it tonight. I will say Florida St guards remind me of him, they kinda just launch it. Sometimes they are on, other times not. We shall see

basketballzag
03-28-2019, 02:11 PM
Is Devin Vassell for FSU playing tonight? I know he injured his ankle against Murray St and didn't play the 2nd half. There hasn't been anything about his status tonight yet which has me curious as to whether FSU will be down 3 players.

raise the zag
03-28-2019, 02:15 PM
Is Devin Vassell for FSU playing tonight? I know he injured his ankle against Murray St and didn't play the 2nd half. There hasn't been anything about his status tonight yet which has me curious as to whether FSU will be down 3 players.

He is fine. Playing. Apparently it was precautionary given the awkward way he landed.

David Nichols is doubtful. Some have said game time decision yet hasn't practiced.

Phil Cofer is out. He missed the entire month of November and part of December too. FSU beat 2 Top 15 teams. And current S16 teams Purdue and LSU during that span. Also, blew out Florida. They know how to operate without him

Markburn1
03-28-2019, 02:29 PM
Again, I'm not commenting on what Hamilton thinks he's accomplishing, or Is trying to accomplish, or philosophically is oriented toward. What is his use of a deep bench actually accomplishing? Is it wearing opponents down and gaining late game advantage?

All I'm asking for is any evidence at all (please don't say eye test) that FSUs atypically high use of bench minutes results in an advantage for FSU as the game and fatigue wear on. Instead, over this year and last (feel free to look further) their scoring margins are smaller and rank lower in minutes 21-40 than in minutes 1-20.

Once again, you are looking for a number to explain everything. Maybe Hamilton is deficient in halftime adjustments, but because he is wearing down the opposition the margins are smaller than they otherwise would have been.

I get it. You are married to analytics to explain everything. I'm not. I don't think life works that way.

DixieZag
03-28-2019, 02:49 PM
Whatever FSU does, they do it pretty well, with a 16-2 record over the last 18 games, with that schedule, is pretty impressive.

They'd be a tough out no matter what, and they will be even without their full lineup.

Markburn1
03-28-2019, 02:56 PM
Best part of this conversation? Wasn't having anxiety attacks waiting for this game. Hahaha.

That's over now.

LTownZag
03-28-2019, 09:24 PM
Zags: 41 bench minutes
FSU: 49 bench minutes (appears to be an FSU season low)


FSU came into the game ranked as 31st-most bench-using team on Kenpom.
If FSU averaged the number of bench minutes that they got tonight, they'd rank #303 on the year.

Good win Gonzaga!

(for those interested, Kenpom defines "bench player" as any non top-5 player in minutes. So on senior night GU's Jack Beach was still counted as a bench player even though he was on the floor for the opening tip. Same for Koumadje, the FSU senior who gets the starting nod over Kabengele, but plays half as many minutes. )

Birddog
03-29-2019, 05:26 AM
Hindsight is so clear. One thing I noticed is that FSU is not always streaky, sometimes they are and sometimes they are not.

rennis
03-29-2019, 05:40 AM
Remaining teams which actually DO show better 2nd halves (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/average-2nd-half-margin) than 1sts (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/average-1st-half-margin)

Texas Tech: 16th biggest margin -> 6th biggest margin


Oregon:54th biggest margin ->18th biggest margin



Well that was prescient!