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View Full Version : According to 12 indicators, here are the teams with the best shots at winning.



Kong-Kool-Aid
03-18-2019, 08:12 PM
All thanks goes to Reddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/b2mia4/final_2019_ncaa_tournament_12_stats_update_this/

Here is how to read and interpret this chart:

These 12 stat categories form a blueprint for the teams who have the best chance at not only making the final four, but winning the ncaa tournament. The stat categories are:


Ken Pom Ranking in top 25

4 seed or better

Top 80 Ken Pom adjOFF ranking pre tournament to determine final 4 contenders (top 25 to match most past champions)

Top 60 Ken Pom adjDEF ranking pre tournament to determine final 4 contenders (top 40 to match most past champions)

3 PT % > 37%

Frontcourt Player averaging > 12 ppg

4 Players averaging double figures

Opponnent Two PT % < 47%

Opponnent Free Throw Rate < 31%

Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)

Head coach has been to the sweet 16

Top 90 in offensive rebounding %

Let's discuss what it takes to be considered a national champion contender:

Ken Pom Ranking in top 25

Since 2002, every champion has been in the top 25 in Ken Poms rankings on each selection Sunday

4 seed or better

Since 1989, 28 out of the last 29 champions have been a 4 seed or better. 2014 Uconn was a 7 seed

Top 25 Ken Pom adjusted offense to match most past champions

Since 2002, every championship team, except 2014 Uconn: 58th, had a Ken Pom offense rated 25th or better before the start of the tournament.

Top 40 Ken Pom adjusted defense to match most past champions

Since 2002, every championship team had a Ken Pom defense rated 40th or better before the start of the tournament.

Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)

Since the 1997 Arizona team, Uconn (2014) and Duke (2015) are the only national champions that have not finished either first or tied for first in their conference regular season or won their conference tournament

So, which teams above meet this criteria? Only Gonzaga, Michigan State, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, and Houston. One of these teams will likely win the national championship.

The strongest 7-9 seeds with the best chance to knock off a 1 or 2 seed is: Nevada, Wofford, Cincinnati, Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, and Baylor. The strongest 11 seed with the best chance to knock off a 3 seed in the 2nd round or a 2 seed in the sweet 16 is: St. Mary’s and then Belmont. Oregon is the strongest 12 seed followed by Murray State.

https://i.redd.it/74vndl06cxm21.jpg

kdaleb
03-18-2019, 08:32 PM
Thanks for sharing; the Gaels do pretty well by these metrics...

ZagWhoShotLibertyValance
03-18-2019, 09:16 PM
cool matrix to look at; St. Mary's should be favored over Nova, and St. John's can do nothing right, yet they have five guys averaging double digits. That's pretty cool and only Georgia State and FDU (smile) also have five. We are really good!! No matter how you look at it, we are awesome. Syracuse has really improved of late but to be honest if we can't beat them we do not deserve to be in the FF anyway. They are an under seeded team due to late progress, though, and I do worry about them; smart coach, puzzling defensive scheme. If Baylor could beat SU, that would ease my mind considerable . . . .

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-18-2019, 09:16 PM
Would be a decent bet to complete a couple of upsets and make the sweet 16.