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caduceus
03-17-2019, 03:30 PM
There will be plenty of sources for metrics, matchups, and simulations this year. Post 'em here when you find them!

Here's the printable bracket:

CBS: https://sports.cbsimg.net/images/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/brackets/printable/cbs-sports-2019.pdf

ESPN: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket

NCAA: https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/print/basketball-men/d1/2019



KenPom has updated his main page with marked Tourney invitees:

www.kenpom.com

More Analytics:

http://www.barttorvik.com/

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

http://www.hoop-math.com/



Interactives:

Algebracket (simulate tourney with parameters you set): www.algebracket.com

FiveThirtyEight's bracket probabilities: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-march-madness-predictions/




Bracket:

https://i.imgur.com/Yz8oRd9.png

caduceus
03-17-2019, 04:30 PM
FiveThirtyEight's Probabilities are up. Added link above.

Decent initial odds for the Zags:

R64 | 32 | 16 | E8 | FF | NC
99% 87% 70% 48% 26% 15%

Zagceo
03-17-2019, 09:28 PM
Duke 19%
Virginia 17%
Zags 15%
UNC 9%

Not bad

caduceus
03-18-2019, 02:52 PM
FiveThirtyEight: Your Guide to the 2019 NCAA Men's Tournament (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/your-guide-to-the-2019-ncaa-mens-tournament/)






WEST REGION

https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Paine-Madness-2019-0317-WEST.png?w=575

Top seed outlook: Gonzaga is the best team in the West by a considerable margin, but the Zags, despite reaching the final two years ago, havenít always performed well under the bright lights of the tournament. Still, Gonzaga has a 70 percent probability of reaching the Elite Eight, according to our model, and the third-best odds of any team to reach the national championship game (26 percent).

Should Gonzaga face Syracuse in the second round, the zone defense of the Orange could give the Bulldogs trouble. This is the best offense Mark Few has had in Spokane, but it may be tested by any of the terrific defenses in the West: Four of the top 15 can be found in this region, including the top two in Texas Tech and Michigan.



Player to watch: Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga

The linchpin of the Zags isnít the consensus lottery pick, nor the two veteran guards who have together started 87 percent of Gonzagaís games over the past two seasons. Itís Brandon Clarke, a transfer from San Jose State who is in his first active season with the team. Heís perhaps the most underappreciated player in the country.

On a team that typically features a 7-footer protecting the rim, itís Clarke, at 6-foot-8, who is tasked with protecting the paint this season. Clarke has responded by setting a single-season blocks record and posting the highest block rate of any team under Few.

ďIf I feel like if I can get a good, quick jump first, Iíll pretty much jump with anybody,Ē Clarke told me. ďI mean, Iíve seen Zion (Williamson) coming down through the lane before on TV, and if I canít jump at the right time, I probably wouldnít jump with him, but Ö I donít really see myself not jumping with anybody.Ē

caduceus
03-18-2019, 03:12 PM
Mark Titus (The Ringer): 2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Best Matchups, Story Lines, and Scenarios (https://www.theringer.com/2019/3/18/18270515/mark-titus-ncaa-tournament-bracket-breakdown)


WEST REGION

Team that got a cakewalk: Gonzaga

The top-seeded Zags landed in the same region as the worst no. 2 seed in the field (Michigan), though thatís counterbalanced by Texas Tech being the tourneyís best no. 3 seed and Florida State being the best no. 4 seed. (Not to mention that Michigan is still pretty damn good.) So I donít necessarily think Gonzaga is a lock to make it to Minneapolis. Itís more that its path to the Final Four goes through Salt Lake City and Anaheim, and the only other schools in the West regional that are based in either the Mountain or Pacific time zones are a no. 7 seed (Nevada), a no. 11 seed (Arizona State), and a no. 15 seed (Montana). Now, I admittedly focus heavily on location and time zones when it comes to the tournament. But I think they are significant, and the NCAA clearly agrees, otherwise it wouldnít make location the no. 1 determining factor when slotting teams in the bracket. Another thing worth mentioning that might not actually matter much: Gonzaga made its only Final Four appearance in school history (2017) after playing earlier rounds in Salt Lake City and California.




Most enticing potential second-round matchup: Syracuse vs. Gonzaga

Syracuse has made the Sweet 16 in each of its past two trips to the NCAA tournament despite being a double-digit seed on both occasions. This, of course, is thanks largely to Jim Boeheimís 2-3 zone. Itís like a knuckleball: It gets absolutely crushed when itís not working, but can look like the most devastating thing youíve ever seen when it is. Other schools play zone defense and plenty of coaches are capable of squeezing every ounce of talent out of their teams. But no coach in America has consistently taken turds into the NCAA tournament and turned them into unhittable knuckleballs like Boeheim has, which is why Syracuse is always a fascinating team to keep an eye on in March. Itís also why Iíd be more worried about a second-round game against the Orange than any other potential matchup on the road to the Final Four if I were a Gonzaga fan.

Much more at link.

Section 116
03-18-2019, 03:24 PM
Who picked whom from ESPN. This will no doubt update until early Thursday morning when the brackets close:

http://fantasy.espn.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2019/en/whopickedwhom

caduceus
03-18-2019, 04:11 PM
Who picked whom from ESPN. This will no doubt update until early Thursday morning when the brackets close:

http://fantasy.espn.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2019/en/whopickedwhom

I've seen several mentions around the net of Duke being way overbet, where apparently 50% of brackets are picking them. Yahoo brackets have similar numbers.


KenPom's blog posted his tournament probabilities. Duke is third behind Virginia and the Zags. (https://kenpom.com/blog/2019-ncaa-tournament-probabilities/) His algorithm likes Michigan St. as a spoiler, in 4th.

kitzbuel
03-19-2019, 01:13 PM
bumping

caduceus
03-19-2019, 01:32 PM
Handy list of overall NCAA tourney W-L records by seed position:

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

Historical statistical records of past NCAA Tourneys:

https://www.allbrackets.com/#1985

Bracket generation from some mathematical guys at Davidson U:

http://marchmathness.davidson.edu/

caduceus
03-19-2019, 10:56 PM
How much do upperclassmen affect a college basketball teamís national title chances?

https://medium.com/@dan.biblis/how-much-do-upperclassmen-affect-a-college-basketball-teams-national-title-chances-37685027ecfa


What I learned from my analysis: Teams with upperclassmen that make up between two-thirds and three-quarters of the roster are more likely to take home a national championship than teams that fall outside of that range. Title winning teams are most often made up of a good mix of upperclassmen leaders and underclassmen standouts.

Relating that to this yearís tournament: In a similar fashion, I gathered the rosters and player statistics of the top 4 seeds in each of the four regions (16 teams in total). The reason why I stopped at 4 seeds is because in the 34 years that the current 64-team bracket has been in existence, 31 out of the 34 title winning teams (91%) have been a 4 seed or lower.

Here are the teams included in my analysis: (1) Duke, (1) Virginia, (1) North Carolina, (1) Gonzaga, (2) Michigan St, (2) Tennessee, (2) Kentucky, (2) Michigan, (3) LSU, (3) Purdue, (3) Houston, (3) Texas Tech, (4) Virginia Tech, (4) Kansas St, (4) Kansas, (4) Florida St

After following the same method of gathering and analyzing data, I discovered that 5 of the 16 teams fall into the 2/3Ė3/4 upperclassmen range, and (with history on their side) have the best chance of winning the 2019 National Championship. Those teams are:

Virginia, Gonzaga, Michigan St, Tennessee, Kansas St

MDABE80
03-20-2019, 12:54 AM
Caduceus...we don't see enough of you during the regular season but wow! , when we get into the playoffs, you are a superstar....

caduceus
03-20-2019, 01:43 AM
Caduceus...we don't see enough of you during the regular season but wow! , when we get into the playoffs, you are a superstar....

Thanks, Abe. Certain events have curtailed my posting ability, but I contribute when I can. If I could post every day, I undoubtedly would.

Zagceo
03-23-2019, 05:28 AM
16 Perfect brackets

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2019-03-23/were-tracking-perfect-brackets-2019-ncaa-tournament

rennis
03-23-2019, 06:44 AM
I used many of the resources in the first post in this thread. and my bracket is a dumpster fire.

kitzbuel
03-23-2019, 07:15 AM
I used many of the resources in the first post in this thread. and my bracket is a dumpster fire.

Ditto.

Radbooks
03-23-2019, 09:10 AM
I didn't use any resources and my bracket is looking pretty good. Only missed 5 games, but still have 15 out of 16 of the sweet 16 teams! :) So much luck...

caduceus
03-23-2019, 12:03 PM
I used many of the resources in the first post in this thread. and my bracket is a dumpster fire.

I think my bracket did worse than any other year in the first round -- by double. Usually I miss 2-5 the first round, but I picked all the wrong upsets this year. In most years the TV pundits pick a bunch of popular upsets and those usually don't happen on average (and I avoid). This year it seems they almost all did (8-9's, 12-5s).

caduceus
03-23-2019, 09:38 PM
I think my bracket did worse than any other year in the first round -- by double. Usually I miss 2-5 the first round, but I picked all the wrong upsets this year. In most years the TV pundits pick a bunch of popular upsets and those usually don't happen on average (and I avoid). This year it seems they almost all did (8-9's, 12-5s).

Update: It's funny, because after missing so many picks Thurs/Fri, my bracket has been redeemed with a perfect sweet 16 (8 for 8) slate as of today. Really strange.

rennis
03-24-2019, 08:25 AM
Update: It's funny, because after missing so many picks Thurs/Fri, my bracket has been redeemed with a perfect sweet 16 (8 for 8) slate as of today. Really strange.

Same. I was also 8/8 yesterday


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