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LTownZag
03-15-2019, 08:04 PM
This is NOT what you wish would happen or what would have happened pre SMC loss.

Given reality, does anyone else think GU deserves a 2 seed and would vote them as such if on the committee?

I think the case can easily be made that UVA, DUKE, and the SEC winner all deserve as overall top 3 seeds.

The 4th 1seed comes down to:

UNC
Zags
MSU (if they win their tourney)
SEC loser (uk/tenn)

I don't know that I'd be able to justify a case for the zags over UNC, and perhaps not the SEC loser.

Anyone else agree? I think GU deserves the 5th or 6th overall seed (top of the 2 seeds).

thespywhozaggedme
03-15-2019, 08:05 PM
This is NOT what you wish would happen or what would have happened pre SMC loss.

Given reality, does anyone else think GU deserves a 2 seed and would vote them as such if on the committee?

I think the case can easily be made that UVA, DUKE, and the SEC winner all deserve as overall top 3 seeds.

The 4th 1seed comes down to:

UNC
Zags
MSU (if they win their tourney)
SEC loser (uk/tenn)

I don't know that I'd be able to justify a case for the zags over UNC, and perhaps not the SEC loser.

Anyone else agree? I think GU deserves the 5th or 6th overall seed (top of the 2 seeds).

Yes, I do. But when has sports even been about "deserving" anything?

tummydoc
03-15-2019, 08:18 PM
Dont think it matters much. Virginia lost to Duke twice, might be our saving grace to stay a 1 seed. But suspect they'll stick Virginia as our 2.

MontanaCoyote
03-15-2019, 08:18 PM
Saturday’s games first.

Note of interest: ‘19 Zags Kenpom. #1 AdO, #16 AdjD. ‘17 Zags, #16 AdjO, #1 AdjD

Just sayin’

23dpg
03-15-2019, 08:21 PM
They deserve a 1 or 2.
I honestly think they’ll end up with a 1. 60% confidence.

LTownZag
03-15-2019, 08:23 PM
Those games don't matter - for the above reasons. Either U.K. Or Tenn win and that's a lock. And even if Duke loses, they are a lock. MSU, win or lose, doesn't have the case GU does.

23dpg
03-15-2019, 08:29 PM
I think Virginia is a lock. The SEC winner isn’t quite a lock but very probable. Duke is also very probable if they win.
That will leave Gonzaga, SEC loser, Big 10 winner and UNC. I think the Zags are the most likely pick there. We’ll see come Sunday.

ZagOD7540
03-15-2019, 08:34 PM
I’m with you. The Zags will be the second #2 seed. That loss Tuesday cost us from being the #1 overall (with the Virginia loss tonight) to the 2nd or even 3rd #2 seed.

thespywhozaggedme
03-15-2019, 08:35 PM
if Duke wins tomorrow and UK wins SEC it will be

Duke-South
UK-Midwest
UVA-East
Zags-West

23dpg
03-15-2019, 08:41 PM
if Duke wins tomorrow and UK wins SEC it will be

Duke-South
UK-Midwest
UVA-East
Zags-West

Agree.

CDC84
03-15-2019, 08:42 PM
Let me put it this way.....I would not argue AGAINST it.

I think getting a number one is overrated in this field. It is so obvious that if the committee gives the west a #1 other than GU, it's going to be the worst #1. There is a consistent pattern of the committee favoring GEOGRAPHY over the S-CURVE. The committee is not going to send, say, the best #2 (if GU is not it) to Anaheim. Let's say the best #2 is Tennessee. They will get the south or something like that. It's a practice I do not agree with, but it is how the committee operates and has consistently done so for years. They are not going to move GU out of the west. I have had one analyst say he will chop off his left arm if that occurs. GU is staying in its natural region.

Therefore, what GU is essentially going to be doing is switching uniform colors if they get a 2. Look at the projected 3's and 4's. Do you REALLY see that much of a difference between them? I see a difference between the top 8 seeds and the rest of the nation. Not saying that a 3 seed couldn't take GU down in the S-16. But this bracket is not that powerful beyond the top 8. Potential 3 seeds like Purdue and Nevada bombed out today. Teams that are just not as good as GU.

NEC26
03-15-2019, 08:49 PM
I see FSU as a probable three seed. I would prefer to avoid them.

MJ777
03-15-2019, 10:14 PM
I see FSU as a probable three seed. I would prefer to avoid them.

Definitely; if FSU is the 3 in the West then I want the Zags to have the 1 Seed. If FSU is the 4 Seed in the West then I want the Zags to be the 2 Seed. I hope FSU is put In the MW. It just seems like it would be a bad match up - again.

HenneZag
03-15-2019, 10:17 PM
IMO the loss to the Gaels dropped us to a 2 seed. With the quality of teams still vying for a top seed I think once it shakes out the committee will have no choice. I'm ok with that. We play better with a chip so maybe this would do it.

KStyles
03-15-2019, 10:50 PM
This is NOT what you wish would happen or what would have happened pre SMC loss.

Given reality, does anyone else think GU deserves a 2 seed and would vote them as such if on the committee?

I think the case can easily be made that UVA, DUKE, and the SEC winner all deserve as overall top 3 seeds.

The 4th 1seed comes down to:

UNC
Zags
MSU (if they win their tourney)
SEC loser (uk/tenn)

I don't know that I'd be able to justify a case for the zags over UNC, and perhaps not the SEC loser.

Anyone else agree? I think GU deserves the 5th or 6th overall seed (top of the 2 seeds).

Personally, I would wait until all of the teams involved finish their season........

MDABE80
03-15-2019, 11:16 PM
No not now. More known by Sunday.
Right now, Gonzaga, Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, UNC, Michigan, MichSt and Tenn.are top 8.
I suspect it'll be GU, VA, Tenn and Duke on the one line.

Need the championship rounds to be clear. Surprised UNC dropped tonight because they beat Duke twice and lost a squeaker tonight.by 1 pt.

+

ZagNation
03-16-2019, 12:31 AM
No not now. More known by Sunday.
Right now, Gonzaga, Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, UNC, Michigan, MichSt and Tenn.are top 8.
I suspect it'll be GU, VA, Tenn and Duke on the one line.

Need the championship rounds to be clear. Surprised UNC dropped tonight because they beat Duke twice and lost a squeaker tonight.by 1 pt.

+

It's not easy to beat a team 3 times in one season.

WallaWallaZag
03-16-2019, 12:53 AM
i could easily see an argument for unc over zags as the last one seed...the game against duke was basically a toss-up.

rawkmandale
03-16-2019, 01:02 AM
i could easily see an argument for unc over zags as the last one seed...the game against duke was basically a toss-up.

Uhhh - Gonzaga was the only team to beat Duke (neutral floor) with Duke at full strength. Gonzaga did not have Tillie or Crandall in that game. Virginia lost today, and Duke beat North Carolina. We will be a 1 seed.

ZagNation
03-16-2019, 01:04 AM
Uhhh - Gonzaga was the only team to beat Duke (neutral floor) with Duke at full strength. Gonzaga did not have Tillie or Crandall in that game. Virginia lost today, and Duke beat North Carolina. We will be a 1 seed.

Yep.

MDABE80
03-16-2019, 01:53 AM
It's not easy to beat a team 3 times in one season.

We know. So?

Martin Centre Mad Man
03-16-2019, 04:36 AM
I think we’re destined to be 5-6 on the S-curve. The 2 seed in the West seems the most probable destination. I don’t have a problem with that. We had one really good win and three losses. If i was on the Selection Committee, that’s where I would vote to place us.

MickMick
03-16-2019, 04:46 AM
Just to shut up the whiners across the land, I want a two seed. Could care less about winning a beauty pageant.

Lace em up.

gonstu
03-16-2019, 04:53 AM
I think it’s funny there’s two threads about the same thing with different titles. Lots of worrying about 1 vs 2. In the end geography and matchups more important - as poster referencing FSU’s seed mentioned above.

I will say that for zags I do still think important to show recruits we can consistently get the 1-seed. I also think there is more pressure on zags to not choke in the 1st weekend so as not to fuel the weak conference, over-seeded arguments.

raise the zag
03-16-2019, 05:06 AM
Saturday’s games first.

Note of interest: ‘19 Zags Kenpom. #1 AdO, #16 AdjD. ‘17 Zags, #16 AdjO, #1 AdjD

Just sayin’

Interesting.

As they say, defense "travels" and always shows up, clearly offense does not.

GonzagasaurusFlex
03-16-2019, 05:11 AM
Saturday’s games first.

Note of interest: ‘19 Zags Kenpom. #1 AdO, #16 AdjD. ‘17 Zags, #16 AdjO, #1 AdjD

Just sayin’

I like it! Thanks Montana. I posed following on yesterday’s games thread but fits this thread better:

I predict FSU rolls Duke. Third game in 3 days for short Duke bench plays right into Leonard Hamilton’s come at you in waves strategy. Don’t think Zion scores so easily in post vs FSU bigs, starting w their 7’4#guy.

I hope Zags can avoid FSU. In fact I wouldn’t mind an all ACC #1 seed line of UVA, Duke, UNC, FSU assuming Florida State wins ACC tourney. Reason being is I think selection committee will keep these 4 ACC teams in separate regions, in which case Zags would most likely have to beat one of them to make it to Final Four. If that’s the case, Zags getting dropped to a #2 seed may serve to get our guys good and pissed off and even more determined to prove themselves

raise the zag
03-16-2019, 05:14 AM
Uhhh - Gonzaga was the only team to beat Duke (neutral floor) with Duke at full strength. Gonzaga did not have Tillie or Crandall in that game. Virginia lost today, and Duke beat North Carolina. We will be a 1 seed.

Obviously Tillie is better player right now, but I'm not sold on he is better for our team right now. He was a presence in the paint/middle.

First, look at Petrusev's stats vs Duke, UNC, UW, St Marys, et al, all the 'best teams' we played. Nearly double figures and very efficient in big games. We don't beat Duke or UW w/out his 10 pts in both games in limited mins.

Second, watch Clarke and Rui when they play with Tillie vs Petrusev. They almost expect Tillie to shoot, or they seem to "relax" more, shy away, wait for him to do something.

With Petrusev, they are fighting for position, cutting without the ball, actually "stepping up" their game. Over trusting can sometimes be a bad thing.

Hey, I'm not making a case of Petrusev over Tillie. Heck, Tillie is my favorite player, but what I'm saying is look at 1. Our team results with Petrusev AND his individual performances in big games. He is a change-of-pace, stays in the paint, while Killian is just more Rui in a way. And 2. Watch how our other bigs play with Tillie than without, they seem to let him take the reigns a bit, I suppose good and bad.

Rangerzag
03-16-2019, 05:24 AM
Zags are #2 in net rankings. Net is the big number replacing rpi.

Ken Pom has Zags at #2.

Any other consideration is beauty contest speculation.


https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

https://kenpom.com/index.php

jazzdelmar
03-16-2019, 05:33 AM
#1 postseason debate will be, why didn’t Few invest more time in Petro from day one?



Obviously Tillie is better player right now, but I'm not sold on he is better for our team right now. He was a presence in the paint/middle.

First, look at Petrusev's stats vs Duke, UNC, UW, St Marys, et al, all the 'best teams' we played. Nearly double figures and very efficient in big games. We don't beat Duke or UW w/out his 10 pts in both games in limited mins.

Second, watch Clarke and Rui when they play with Tillie vs Petrusev. They almost expect Tillie to shoot, or they seem to "relax" more, shy away, wait for him to do something.

With Petrusev, they are fighting for position, cutting without the ball, actually "stepping up" their game. Over trusting can sometimes be a bad thing.

Hey, I'm not making a case of Petrusev over Tillie. Heck, Tillie is my favorite player, but what I'm saying is look at 1. Our team results with Petrusev AND his individual performances in big games. He is a change-of-pace, stays in the paint, while Killian is just more Rui in a way. And 2. Watch how our other bigs play with Tillie than without, they seem to let him take the reigns a bit, I suppose good and bad.

raise the zag
03-16-2019, 05:51 AM
#1 postseason debate will be, why didn’t Few invest more time in Petro from day one?

Seems to be stuck in the middle now and we are quickly
trying to figure out best lineups again in late March.

A so-called good problem to have, yet Tillie is a bench role this year being treated like a starter when he plays. This is great for our team in some ways, Tillie is a terrific talent, yet also confusing the hell out of our team too.

As I mentioned in another thread, 1 or 2 seed type teams aren't scrambling to figure out their "identity" this time of year. Corey Kispert was interviewed 2 days stating they are trying to find themselves, theor identity, looking in the mirror, etc.

Also, teams aren't still experimenting with friggin' lineups a week before March Madness. At least not the best teams.

Whether we like it or not, we haven't looked all that great since Tillie's return. It's not because of Tillie but it's the reason.

Our seamless chemistry, roles, lineups, and "pride" as Coach Few also out it, was on point.

We are off center and finding ourselves at the wrong time.

Our hope is we adjust quickly.

It's not about Petrusev over Tillie, no way, but it is about timing and the role he played within our offense. One can't argue how well he played vs the Top 40 teams we faced. I'm not certain Tillie could have performed any better in limited time. He also stayed in the paint to receive passes, while Tillie is a versatile weapon, he posts once then turns and floats to perimeter, like a really tall Kispert. Petrusev was another "center" on the court.

And more importantly, lineups in limited times. When Tillie was in and making 3pt shots, Clarke and Rui, depending on who he was paired with expected it. They took plays off moreso than playing with the alternative.

Chemistry and understanding roles, or at least buying in, is the most important factor in hoops outside the obvious. It's what made the Zags, well, the Zags

RenoZag
03-16-2019, 05:58 AM
I’m with you. The Zags will be the second #2 seed. That loss Tuesday cost us from being the #1 overall (with the Virginia loss tonight) to the 2nd or even 3rd #2 seed.

Zags weren't going to be the #1 overall one seed even with a win vs. the Gaels. #1 overall is P6 territory. Zags would have to be a one loss team to get that nod. Mid-major conference teams are not going to get the top slot unless they go undefeated. . .the Selection Committee always gives that slot to a blue bood.

gueastcoast
03-16-2019, 06:18 AM
Those games don't matter - for the above reasons. Either U.K. Or Tenn win and that's a lock. And even if Duke loses, they are a lock. MSU, win or lose, doesn't have the case GU does.

This. MSU the only team I am confident we are above. The rest a crapshoot IMO.

VaBeachZAG
03-16-2019, 06:30 AM
Uhhh - Gonzaga was the only team to beat Duke (neutral floor) with Duke at full strength. Gonzaga did not have Tillie or Crandall in that game. Virginia lost today, and Duke beat North Carolina. We will be a 1 seed.

I have seen on multiple occasions posts referencing Crandall's absence in the Duke game. Please, for the love of almighty, and for the last time, Geno WAS in that game. His most notable play was a spectacular layup as he was falling to the floor.

raise the zag
03-16-2019, 06:36 AM
I have seen on multiple occasions posts referencing Crandall's absence in the Duke game. Please, for the love of almighty, and for the last time, Geno WAS in that game. His most notable play was a spectacular layup as he was falling to the floor.

Exactly. It was a big time 3pt play.

Every point was needed there too.

Geno hasn't missed much time like Tillie, it's also the reason his return was seamless while Tillie's return has been slow going.

Tillie hitting shots like he does yet teammates not really knowing how to play with him yet, or their roles.

Crandall only missed Tennessee and UNC games for the most part.

Reborn
03-16-2019, 06:38 AM
NET, Kenpom and BSI all have the Zags ranked second. Even Joe Lunardi has them as the second #1 seed. Why shouldn't we be a number one seed. I'm glad that the pundants and I think alike this year.

Go Zags!!!

TexasZagFan
03-16-2019, 07:07 AM
NET, Kenpom and BSI all have the Zags ranked second. Even Joe Lunardi has them as the second #1 seed. Why shouldn't we be a number one seed. I'm glad that the pundants and I think alike this year.

Go Zags!!!

If the Zags are going to be demoted for losing in their conference tournament, then all #1 seeds should be likewise demoted for losing in theirs. What the talking heads told me last night was that Virginia was still THE #1 seed despite losing to Florida State, IMO a much better loss than what the Zags endured.

willandi
03-16-2019, 07:15 AM
If the Zags are going to be demoted for losing in their conference tournament, then all #1 seeds should be likewise demoted for losing in theirs. What the talking heads told me last night was that Virginia was still THE #1 seed despite losing to Florida State, IMO a much better loss than what the Zags endured.

After yesterdays games, FSU is #14 on KenPom while SMC is #31, so they are better, but not really all that much better.

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 07:39 AM
Many on This board are frustratingly unable to answer a specific question. I wasn't wondering your prediction for the committee would be, or what the prediction of others is, that's easy to look up.

I was wondering who else, if they were given a vote/voice, would vote zags on the 2 line (5th-8th) overall.

The number of folks saying that VA isn't as lock or that FSU could be a #1 seed is telling regarding the level of reality involved...

IowaSERE
03-16-2019, 07:42 AM
We better get the #1 seed. I took off Thurs and have to work Fri. If we're #2 seed in San Jose we play on Friday right?

MJ777
03-16-2019, 08:23 AM
Many on This board are frustratingly unable to answer a specific question. I wasn't wondered your prediction for the committee would be, or what the prediction of others is, that's easy to look up.

I was wondering who else, if they were given a vote/voice, would vote zags on the 2 line (5th-8th) overall.

The number of folks saying that VA isn't as lock or that FSU could be a #1 seed is telling...

If I had a say I would make GU the 1 in the West and Tenn would be the 2. FSU would be in one of the other 3 regions.

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 08:37 AM
#1 postseason debate will be, why didn’t Few invest more time in Petro from day one?
Are you defining “invest more time” as “play more minutes in games”? Because how else would you know the quantity of staff time and energy invested when the tv camera isn’t on? Or are you just riding your hobby horse again?

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 08:57 AM
If the Zags are going to be demoted for losing in their conference tournament, then all #1 seeds should be likewise demoted for losing in theirs. What the talking heads told me last night was that Virginia was still THE #1 seed despite losing to Florida State, IMO a much better loss than what the Zags endured.

If GU is Demoted (passed up) By 4 teams for the 1seed, it will be because 4 other teams overall have better resumes, not because a single comparison between our smc loss and Virginia’s FSU loss.

Part of GU’s situation in a mid major without another ranked team is the requirement of perfection in this games. We had been perfect until we weren’t. That comes with a much bigger penalty than losing to top20 arc or P5 team.

Here’s the analogy: 2 gymnasts attempt their floor routine. 1 has a routine with many very very advanced tricks and moves, the other tries a routine with consistently lower difficulty and more basic or standard moves.

Both routines are judged and graded accordingly. The very difficult and bold routine might score top marks despite a couple errors. The more simple and conservative routine needs flawless execution for the same scores.

That’s basically the situation (through no fault or choice of GU) that exists for mid majors relative to their schedules. Getting judged top marks requires perfection in your “simple routine” and one mistake or lost game costs you more if your routine isn’t as challenging.

OntZags
03-16-2019, 08:57 AM
Gonzaga's resume is definitely that of a 2 seed, possibly even high 3. There really isn't a lot of meat on there aside from the Duke win. (although given the fanfare Duke has gotten this season, being the only team to beat a healthy Duke carries some extra cache)

Gonzaga's metrics are definitely that of a 1 seed. Also being the only team out West in the 1/2 discussion probably helps.

Personally, I'm fine being the 2 out West. I don't see a huge difference between the 3/4 seeds and I'd rather the chip on the shoulder. (and also not hear the incessant whining from power programs)

Just keep FSU in a different bracket please. That is the one team I really don't want to see in the sweet sixteen.

KStyles
03-16-2019, 09:00 AM
If GU is Demoted (passed up) By 4 teams for the 1seed, it will be because 4 other teams overall have better resumes, not because a single comparison between our smc loss and Virginia’s FSU loss.

Part of GU’s situation in a mid major without another ranked team is the requirement of perfection in this games. We had been perfect until we weren’t. That comes with a much bigger penalty than losing to top20 arc or P5 team.

Here’s the analogy: 2 gymnasts attempt their floor routine. 1 has a routine with many very very advanced tricks and moves, the other tries a routine with consistently lower difficulty and more basic or standard moves.

Both routines are judged and graded accordingly. The very difficult and bold routine might score top marks despite a couple errors. The more simple and conservative routine needs flawless execution for the same scores.

That’s basically the situation (through no fault or choice of GU) that exists for mid majors relative to their schedules. Getting judged top marks requires perfection in your “simple routine” and one mistake or lost game costs you more if your routine isn’t as challenging.

Yep. Hard to speculate until we see the final resumes. A lot of moving pieces still today.

willandi
03-16-2019, 09:01 AM
Many on This board are frustratingly unable to answer a specific question. I wasn't wondering your prediction for the committee would be, or what the prediction of others is, that's easy to look up.

I was wondering who else, if they were given a vote/voice, would vote zags on the 2 line (5th-8th) overall.

The number of folks saying that VA isn't as lock or that FSU could be a #1 seed is telling regarding the level of reality involved...

There is not an answer yet.

Much depends on what happens to other teams. If Florida State wins the ACC, do you think they deserve a one seed over the Zags? Do you think that what happens in the conference tournaments should have any bearing on the seed or should the seeds be based on the years body of work?

Answer ALL the questions, not just mine, and YOU will have YOUR answer.

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 09:10 AM
There is not an answer yet.

Much depends on what happens to other teams. If Florida State wins the ACC, do you think they deserve a one seed over the Zags? Do you think that what happens in the conference tournaments should have any bearing on the seed or should the seeds be based on the years body of work?

Answer ALL the questions, not just mine, and YOU will have YOUR answer.


FSU lost to Pitt and BC ( 99 and 113, much worse than UC Irvine, for example) so neither my opinion nor the committee’s will have them as a #1.


I think games played in conference tournaments should matter, as should all games, and this opinion is shared by the committee and by me.

Hoopaholic
03-16-2019, 09:39 AM
If GU is Demoted (passed up) By 4 teams for the 1seed, it will be because 4 other teams overall have better resumes, not because a single comparison between our smc loss and Virginia’s FSU loss.

Part of GU’s situation in a mid major without another ranked team is the requirement of perfection in this games. We had been perfect until we weren’t. That comes with a much bigger penalty than losing to top20 arc or P5 team.

Here’s the analogy: 2 gymnasts attempt their floor routine. 1 has a routine with many very very advanced tricks and moves, the other tries a routine with consistently lower difficulty and more basic or standard moves.

Both routines are judged and graded accordingly. The very difficult and bold routine might score top marks despite a couple errors. The more simple and conservative routine needs flawless execution for the same scores.

That’s basically the situation (through no fault or choice of GU) that exists for mid majors relative to their schedules. Getting judged top marks requires perfection in your “simple routine” and one mistake or lost game costs you more if your routine isn’t as challenging.

Depends on what factors you use or exclude to make your decision

Resume
Overall win loss
Quadrant 1 wins
Quadrant 1 win opportunity percentage
Quad 1 and 2 win
Quad 1 and 2 win opportunity percentage
Quad 2,3,4 losses
Bpi
Net
kenpom
Eye test
How playing last ten games

gueastcoast
03-16-2019, 09:40 AM
For those who may not have seen it, a pretty interesting discussion of GU on College Gameday this morning. A lot of support for us on the 1 line (Bilas, Greenberg) but the segment was teed up with a list of eight teams' percentage probability of getting a #1 seed based upon the BPI(?), with us lowest at 6%. This caused a lot of discussion of the "eye test" supporting Gonzaga's case, when personally I'd have preferred they'd have cited other metrics such as KenPom instead.

Bilas had an interesting take, which I've no idea is how the Committee thinks about things. He essentially said he'd already developed his view of who belongs on the 1 line prior to the conference tournaments, and absent some wildly uncharacteristic occurrence (he didn't say what that would be, but probably something like TTech losing to WVU would qualify), he wouldn't change his view. I'm paraphrasing obviously, but it was an interesting perspective and it didn't seem the other guys (Davis, Greenberg, JWill) agreed.

I think we'll be the lowest 1, placed in the West.

One last thought: I think sometimes certain posters don't appreciate that one might not really care if we're a 1 or a 2 (I don't; I don't think it will impact our path all that much, and think location matters more), but at the same time not like us getting passed over for a 1 by a P6 team, for all the reasons we discuss ad nauseum on this board.

zagray
03-16-2019, 10:10 AM
The Commitee is a whole different animal. 2008 we lose to San Diego in the finals of the conference tournament. Zags were a projected 4 seed in the West. Zags ended up being a 7 seed playing a 10 seed Davidson and Seth Curry in their backyard. Zags were booked dogs right out of the gates and went down in flames in round one. That’s just one example of how the Committee has burned the Zags when they lost in the WCC tourney. Do we deserve a number 1 seed, most experts by an eye test would say yes. The Committee will see things differently, a 2 in the West would be fantastic, don’t be to surprised if the Committee shafts us with something even less deserving.

DixieZag
03-16-2019, 10:17 AM
The Commitee is a whole different animal. 2008 we lose to San Diego in the finals of the conference tournament. Zags were a projected 4 seed in the West. Zags ended up being a 7 seed playing a 10 seed Davidson and Seth Curry in their backyard. Zags were booked dogs right out of the gates and went down in flames in round one. That’s just one example of how the Committee has burned the Zags when they lost in the WCC tourney. Do we deserve a number 1 seed, most experts by an eye test would say yes. The Committee will see things differently, a 2 in the West would be fantastic, don’t be to surprised if the Committee shafts us with something even less deserving.

To be fair, I think the last 3 years of appearing at least in the 2nd weekend, has probably put an end to that type of shafting.

I think even a 2 seed (which is what I still instinctively believe we'll get) would be sufficient to get the guys' tails in the air a bit and play with that chip on the shoulder.

Right now, if one gave me the opportunity to get the 2 seed in the West while avoiding certain teams (I always want to avoid good mid-majors, and the FSU, UVA types) it would be a worthy trade off.

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 10:19 AM
One overlooked factor in all this, since its not a basketball factor, is geography. Zags benefit from terrible basketball year in the western half of the nation.

Since there is a strong east coast clustering of top teams, and all 8 of the teams in the running for a 1 or a 2 seed (except GU) is at least 2000 miles from the west region venue, GU gets a small but probably real bias or tiebreaker points toward high seeding out west from a committee that Is seeking to minimize total travel distances.

If (for example) the final 1seed is out west and the teams in the running are Gu, unc, and tenn or UK, it might be the case that unc or an SEC team would actually prefer a 2 seed closer to their home and fans than a 1 seed on the opposite coast. I don’t know for sure, but would be curious to see this question asked to coach Barnes or Williams.

willandi
03-16-2019, 11:01 AM
FSU lost to Pitt and BC ( 99 and 113, much worse than UC Irvine, for example) so neither my opinion nor the committee’s will have them as a #1.


I think games played in conference tournaments should matter, as should all games, and this opinion is shared by the committee and by me.

I never thought that FSU should be a 1. But should Duke be a 1 if FSU beats them?

Does the committee think that or are you assigning your belief onto them? If neither Virginia or the Zags are knocked off the #1 line, then you are putting your belief onto them. If both teams are dropped then you will be right.

We won't know the answers to those until tomorrow afternoon when the announcements are made.

KStyles
03-16-2019, 11:06 AM
One overlooked factor in all this, since its not a basketball factor, is geography. Zags benefit from terrible basketball year in the western half of the nation.

Since there is a strong east coast clustering of top teams, and all 8 of the teams in the running for a 1 or a 2 seed (except GU) is at least 2000 miles from the west region venue, GU gets a small but probably real bias or tiebreaker points toward high seeding out west from a committee that Is seeking to minimize total travel distances.

If (for example) the final 1seed is out west and the teams in the running are Gu, unc, and tenn or UK, it might be the case that unc or an SEC team would actually prefer a 2 seed closer to their home and fans than a 1 seed on the opposite coast. I don’t know for sure, but would be curious to see this question asked to coach Barnes or Williams.


They don't switch 1 & 2 seeds for location, that's more of a bracket building thing. Even if they did, assuming higher seeds win, 1 and 2 will end up in the same regional either way.

https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2018/02/07/microsoft_word_-_principles_and_procedures_2017-18.pdf

Markburn1
03-16-2019, 11:07 AM
It's not easy to beat a team 3 times in one season.

I've heard this so many times it makes my head spin. It just isn't true.

According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.
So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

NEC26
03-16-2019, 11:09 AM
I've heard this so many times it makes my head spin. It just isn't true.

According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.
So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

What about a fourth time though? Thats the real question. I've heard its real hard to beat a team 4 times.

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 11:13 AM
Duke will be a 1 regardless of their results today.

UVA and Duke are locks in my opinion and if I were a voter and I believe the committee agrees. I also think this view is widely shared by the bracket folks and analysts on TV.

Markburn1
03-16-2019, 11:13 AM
I think it’s funny there’s two threads about the same thing with different titles. Lots of worrying about 1 vs 2. In the end geography and matchups more important - as poster referencing FSU’s seed mentioned above.

I will say that for zags I do still think important to show recruits we can consistently get the 1-seed. I also think there is more pressure on zags to not choke in the 1st weekend so as not to fuel the weak conference, over-seeded arguments.

The other thread has a different premise. I meant it to be a reference to a potential oddity.

DixieZag
03-16-2019, 11:23 AM
I've heard this so many times it makes my head spin. It just isn't true.

According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.
So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

Well, I think you make a decent point, but you do have to consider that at least half of those games are GU v. Portland types, where - no, it isn't hard to beat a team 3x.

I think the cliché is meant to apply to evenly matched teams, and is probably not much more than the law of averages playing out.

Take two evenly matched teams, have one team win twice, some ease sets in, the other team is super frustrated/motivated, and the law of averages starts to work its way to the surface.

I suspect that's it more than anything.

willandi
03-16-2019, 11:30 AM
Duke will be a 1 regardless of their results today.

UVA and Duke are locks in my opinion and if I were a voter and I believe the committee agrees. I also think this view is widely shared by the bracket folks and analysts on TV.

Why do you keep saying 'the committee agrees'?

YOU don't know what the committee believes. We will find out tomorrow what the committee believes.

DixieZag
03-16-2019, 11:36 AM
Bracket Matrix as of right now, 12:30 on Sat:

Virginia
Duke
Zags
Kentucky
North Carolina
Michigan State
Tennessee
Michigan

So, if we really want to be a one seed, I suspect we ought to just cheer Kentucky along to get Tenn out of the picture, and hope that Michigan State doesn't win the BiG.

willandi
03-16-2019, 11:38 AM
Bracket Matrix as of right now, 12:30 on Sat:

Virginia
Duke
Zags
Kentucky
North Carolina
Michigan State
Tennessee
Michigan

So, if we really want to be a one seed, I suspect we ought to just cheer Kentucky along to get Tenn out of the picture, and hope that Michigan State doesn't win the BiG.

Do we hope that FSU beats Duke? Would that knock Duke off the 1 seed line?

NEC26
03-16-2019, 11:46 AM
Do we hope that FSU beats Duke? Would that knock Duke off the 1 seed line?

Not sure it knocks them off as a 1 but I think it would definitely help us be above them.

Zagceo
03-16-2019, 11:51 AM
Zags beat SMC by 48 turn around and lose scoring 47 points...just doesn't pass the #1 seed test imo

SMC was probably going to miss the dance also

Giving Zags #1 seed on body of work doesn't make sense

Get people in a room talking about these points and its hard to defend.

how do you defend these points?

NEC26
03-16-2019, 11:53 AM
Zags beat SMC by 48 turn around and lose scoring 47 points...just doesn't pass the #1 seed test imo

SMC was probably going to miss the dance also

Giving Zags #1 seed on body of work doesn't make sense

Get people in a room talking about these points and its hard to defend.

how do you defend these points?

The fact that the other 1 seeds in discussion have worse losses besides Virginia and Duke.

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 11:54 AM
No. Duke is a lock. Duke is a lock. Duke is still a lock.

FSU has losses to teams ranked 99 and 113. Duke has 1 loss at full strength.

Markburn1
03-16-2019, 11:56 AM
Well, I think you make a decent point, but you do have to consider that at least half of those games are GU v. Portland types, where - no, it isn't hard to beat a team 3x.

I think the cliché is meant to apply to evenly matched teams, and is probably not much more than the law of averages playing out.

Take two evenly matched teams, have one team win twice, some ease sets in, the other team is super frustrated/motivated, and the law of averages starts to work its way to the surface.

I suspect that's it more than anything.

Agree that your scenario could skew the numbers. Curiously, it works the same way in the NFL even though the third game is a playoff game.

bartruff1
03-16-2019, 11:57 AM
Anyone that saw that game would simply laugh at the idea that Gonzaga is a one seed...or even a two seed.... they have a lot to prove...

Please spare me the Duke meme...that was last year....and Zion had not yet found some shoes that fit...

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 11:57 AM
Why do you keep saying 'the committee agrees'?

YOU don't know what the committee believes. We will find out tomorrow what the committee believes.

Because bracket matrix at this point is able to be trusted on those top 2 teams (uva and Duke). There's not a single tv or online analyst I've seen who hasn't had Duke as a lock.

Zagceo
03-16-2019, 11:58 AM
The fact that the other 1 seeds in discussion have worse losses besides Virginia and Duke.

and the follow up is body of work...they also have more quality wins.

Hoopaholic
03-16-2019, 11:59 AM
Zags beat SMC by 48 turn around and lose scoring 47 points...just doesn't pass the #1 seed test imo

SMC was probably going to miss the dance also

Giving Zags #1 seed on body of work doesn't make sense

Get people in a room talking about these points and its hard to defend.

how do you defend these points?

vice president men basketball just said categorically that the entire seasons body of work is a heavy factor and single loss in conference tournament does not have a very heavy factor

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 12:03 PM
vice president men basketball just said categorically that the entire seasons body of work is a heavy factor and single loss in conference tournament does not have a very heavy factor

As I've seen more analysis and interviews online, I'm actually more expecting of GU to get a 1seed than I was yesterday. But the premise of the thread was how would I vote, not what do I think will happen.

I now slightly lean toward expecting GU getting the last #1, but still personally would vote them as a high #2.

gueastcoast
03-16-2019, 12:08 PM
FWIW Vitale thinks we're a 1 seed (he's doing the UK/Tenn game). The other announcer (didn't catch name) also cited the BPI and our 6% chance....WTF is up with that?

Can someone who tracks all of this more closely than I do explain why the BPI is getting so much play all of a sudden it seems. Maybe I missed something but I thought the NCAA had cashiered the RPI and replaced it with the NET, and many experts value KenPom...I know the BPI is still used, but hearing so much about it leading into Selection Sunday as a rationale for seeding...seems fishy.

They'll stop at nothing to keep the non-P6 teams down...mild /sarc

Markburn1
03-16-2019, 12:09 PM
Anyone that saw that game would simply laugh at the idea that Gonzaga is a one seed...or even a two seed.... they have a lot to prove...

Please spare me the Duke meme...that was last year....and Zion had not yet found some shoes that fit...

It has to do with the entire body of work, Bart.
If anyone saw the night before, you might be crazy to think that the Zags aren't the overall #1.

Markburn1
03-16-2019, 12:11 PM
FWIW Vitale thinks we're a 1 seed (he's doing the UK/Tenn game). The other announcer (didn't catch name) also cited the BPI and our 6% chance....WTF is up with that?

Can someone who tracks all of this more closely than I do explain why the BPI is getting so much play all of a sudden it seems. Maybe I missed something but I thought the NCAA had cashiered the RPI and replaced it with the NET, and many experts value KenPom...I know the BPI is still used, but hearing so much about it leading into Selection Sunday as a rationale for seeding...seems fishy.

They'll stop at nothing to keep the non-P6 teams down...mild /sarc

BPI is ESPN's baby. That's why it is getting such play on that network.

Hoopaholic
03-16-2019, 12:11 PM
FWIW Vitale thinks we're a 1 seed (he's doing the UK/Tenn game). The other announcer (didn't catch name) also cited the BPI and our 6% chance....WTF is up with that?

Can someone who tracks all of this more closely than I do explain why the BPI is getting so much play all of a sudden it seems. Maybe I missed something but I thought the NCAA had cashiered the RPI and replaced it with the NET, and many experts value KenPom...I know the BPI is still used, but hearing so much about it leading into Selection Sunday as a rationale for seeding...seems fishy.

They'll stop at nothing to keep the non-P6 teams down...mild /sarc

weighted metric for P6 so thus they pick and choose to support their narrative

MJ777
03-16-2019, 12:21 PM
As I've seen more analysis and interviews online, I'm actually more expecting of GU to get a 1seed than I was yesterday. But the premise of the thread was how would I vote, not what do I think will happen.

I now slightly lean toward expecting GU getting the last #1, but still personally would vote them as a high #2.

I get it, the resume is a bit light, but the metrics are great. The eye test should be a primary factor, but that last image created in LV may be hard to overcome no matter what Dickie, Joey and Jay say.

Best win: full strength Duke at neutral site. Duke steamrolled Kentucky before or after Maui. *UK is much improved.

Other Good/Decent wins:
At Creighton
At SMC
UW
At BYU
At USF
SMC/BYU
Illinois/UA Neutral site
At USD

Losses:
Tenn Neutral site
At UNC
SMC Neutral site

whatazag
03-16-2019, 12:32 PM
I think we deserve a #2 seed.
I think we might still get a #1. Committee might be worried about the optics of putting 3 ACC teams in 1 seeds.

LTownZag
03-16-2019, 12:40 PM
I think we deserve a #2 seed.
I think we might still get a #1. Committee might be worried about the optics of putting 3 ACC teams in 1 seeds.

I was wondering about those optics as well- I think UNC will not be the 3rd ACC 1 seed as long as MSU beats Michigan tmrw or auburn loses (or both).

bartruff1
03-16-2019, 12:50 PM
It has to do with the entire body of work, Bart.
If anyone saw the night before, you might be crazy to think that the Zags aren't the overall #1.

I know that....I posted about impression anyone with a pulse in their brain would get watching the #! rated team in the Country being humiliated by a team that was not deserving of a at large bid....

Gonzaga has many doubters among college basketball fans and that game certainly confirmed their doubts....the Zags have a lot MORE to prove in this Tournament...

Markburn1
03-16-2019, 12:55 PM
I know that....I posted about impression anyone with a pulse in their brain would get watching the #! rated team in the Country being humiliated by a team that was not deserving of a at large bid....

Gonzaga has many doubters among college basketball fans and that game certainly confirmed their doubts....the Zags have a lot MORE to prove in this Tournament...

Gotcha

GonzagasaurusFlex
03-16-2019, 12:57 PM
I get it, the resume is a bit light, but the metrics are great. The eye test should be a primary factor, but that last image created in LV may be hard to overcome no matter what Dickie, Joey and Jay say.

Best win: full strength Duke at neutral site. Duke steamrolled Kentucky before or after Maui. *UK is much improved.

Other Good/Decent wins:
At Creighton
At SMC
UW
At BYU
At USF
SMC/BYU
Illinois/UA Neutral site
At USD

Losses:
At Tenn
At UNC
SMC Neutral site

I’m guessing Zags get top #2 seed and stay out West. Wasn’t sure of that til I looked at your ‘Other Good/Decent Wins’ List. It’s a stretch and pales in comparison to same such list for the other #1 seed candidates.

willandi
03-16-2019, 01:20 PM
weighted metric for P6 so thus they pick and choose to support their narrative

That is why the quad sucks. The lower teams in the P 6 conferences have a better record against quad 1 teams, win or lose, than SMC does just because they get the chance.

Do away with quad and use NET metrics, BPI, Kenpom or whatever. Don't use metrics and the skew them.

Zagceo
03-16-2019, 01:42 PM
I’m guessing Zags get top #2 seed and stay out West. Wasn’t sure of that til I looked at your ‘Other Good/Decent Wins’ List. It’s a stretch and pales in comparison to same such list for the other #1 seed candidates.

body of work.....looks anorexic

MJ777
03-16-2019, 02:08 PM
I was going to use the 89-90 UNLV team as an argument for GU being a 1. UNLV was a big fish in a smaller pond (Big West). They were the preseason number 1 nationally. They went 16-2 surprisingly in league losing to ranked NM St and to UCSB. They cruised through the Conf tourney going 3-0. They lost 5 games total during the regular season and were ranked as low as 14. They were at # 2 in the last poll. They did get a 1 seed and went on to win the Big tourney pounding Duke by 30 in the championship game.

One difference I found was UNLVs non conference schedule.
They played Cal, LMU (they played again in the tourney), DePaul, Iowa, Arkansas, Temple, Kansas (lost), Oklahoma (lost), NC St, Ok St, Arizona, LSU (lost) & Louisville. I didn’t look to see how good those teams were that year but on the surface it is an impressive schedule.

To me the Zag’s schedule seems pretty underwhelming for a 1 seed, but the brainiacs on CBS, ESPN and on the GU board say they are 1 worthy, so I will agree and hope for a similar finish for GU to what that UNLV team experienced.

NEC26
03-16-2019, 02:11 PM
What isn't being considered is the fact that all the metrics have GU highly rated. As in the number 1 or 2 team in the nation. We haven't played the schedule those other teams have but we dominated the teams we have played in a major way.

JPtheBeasta
03-16-2019, 03:40 PM
A win in Phoenix against Tennessee would have been very nice about now...

Zagger
03-16-2019, 04:14 PM
At least :)
I’m kinda more interested in seeing what seed SMC will get. I think the Zags will do well regardless of seed.
Yeah, the SMC game was a downer. However, this Zag bunch is a quick study. They’ll do just fine :)

caduceus
03-16-2019, 04:36 PM
SMC is going to be an 11 or 12-seed...pretty sure. I have no doubt they could take down a 5- or 6-seed if they get the right matchup.

Idahozag10
03-16-2019, 05:06 PM
will we be in salt lake no matter what??


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