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View Full Version : Quiz--name the top 3 offensive players for GU



avid-zag-fan
01-06-2019, 07:50 AM
according to KenPom:

Offensive rating (ORtg): A measure of personal offensive efficiency developed by Dean Oliver. The formula is very complicated, but accurate. For a detailed explanation, buy Basketball on Paper.

national rank all players #2 in the nation---Jeremy Jones

Clarke 29

Norvell 92

congrats to Jeremy!!

bartruff1
01-06-2019, 08:13 AM
There are about 9 players at Gonzaga who have.... or could..... score 20 or more points in a game....including Geno, Filip, Jones...

If Dean's formula doesn't identify Rui as Gonzaga's "top offensive player " I am glad he doesn't design suspension bridges or elevator cables …… it all depends on what your definition of efficiency is... I think Charles Barkley has a point when he says that " Analytics is crap "...…..right up there with Mark Twain's " lies...damn lies...and statistics..." ;)

HenneZag
01-06-2019, 08:33 AM
Nice.

Norvell has been in a little slump as of late, hoping he can get back on track this coming week.

avid-zag-fan
01-06-2019, 01:17 PM
There are about 9 players at Gonzaga who have.... or could..... score 20 or more points in a game....including Geno, Filip, Jones...

If Dean's formula doesn't identify Rui as Gonzaga's "top offensive player " I am glad he doesn't design suspension bridges or elevator cables …… it all depends on what your definition of efficiency is... I think Charles Barkley has a point when he says that " Analytics is crap "...…..right up there with Mark Twain's " lies...damn lies...and statistics..." ;)

You obviously have a very limited understanding of analytics or statistics. It's no wonder you are skeptical. Saying that Lang, Beach and Jones have the highest 3 pt % on the team (which is literally true) is NOT the same as saying they are the 3 best 3pt shooters on the team.

sittingon50
01-06-2019, 01:28 PM
Huh?

bartruff1
01-06-2019, 01:34 PM
Avid, you are the one who conflated some sort of "personal offensive efficiency" with " top offensive players "..... they are not the same...

Shall I believe Dean or my lying eyes.....imho the top offensive players are Rui, Clarke and Norvell....with Tillie yet to be heard from...complexity is not the same as accuracy...

RenoZag
01-06-2019, 02:00 PM
Brandon Clarke rates 3rd in PER behind Zion Williamson ( 42.1), Cameron Jackson ( 36.1 ), Clarke 36.0.

He's 4th in the country in Blocks per Game; 4th in Effective Field Goal %; and 2nd in Box Plus/Minus (18.3) behind Zion's 20.8

Source: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2019-leaders.html

Clarke has the potential to be a first team All-American.

Advanced Stats Available Here: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/gonzaga/2019.html#advanced::none

Malastein
01-06-2019, 03:09 PM
Brandon Clarke rates 3rd in PER behind Zion Williamson ( 42.1), Cameron Jackson ( 36.1 ), Clarke 36.0.

He's 4th in the country in Blocks per Game; 4th in Effective Field Goal %; and 2nd in Box Plus/Minus (18.3) behind Zion's 20.8

Source: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2019-leaders.html

Clarke has the potential to be a first team All-American.

Advanced Stats Available Here: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/gonzaga/2019.html#advanced::none


Clarke and Rui are as good of a 1-2 punch Gonzaga has ever had!

RenoZag
01-06-2019, 03:25 PM
Clarke and Rui are as good of a 1-2 punch Gonzaga has ever had!

Combined PPG / RPG Stats

Hachimura / Clarke (18-19): 38.4 / 14.5

Morrison / Batista (05-06): 47.4 / 14.9

Rui & Brandon are pretty darn good. . .best tandem ever ? Lot of season left for them to claim that title. . .

Markburn1
01-06-2019, 04:43 PM
Combined PPG / RPG Stats

Hachimura / Clarke (18-19): 38.4 / 14.5

Morrison / Batista (05-06): 47.4 / 14.9

Rui & Brandon are pretty darn good. . .best tandem ever ? Lot of season left for them to claim that title. . .

Your Morrison/Batista stats remind me of the two brothers in Major league baseball with the most combined home runs. 769.
Hank had 756. Tommie had 13.
Morrison/ Batista not nearly as dramatic, but...

RenoZag
01-06-2019, 06:46 PM
Your Morrison/Batista stats remind me of the two brothers in Major league baseball with the most combined home runs. 769.
Hank had 756. Tommie had 13.
Morrison/ Batista not nearly as dramatic, but...

Morrison 28.1 / 5.5
Batista 19.3 / 9.4

Rui 21.4 / 6.4
Clarke 17 / 8.1

Nothing at all like Hank & Tommie. . .

willandi
01-06-2019, 07:17 PM
The problem with the title, and the OP is that a walkon that shot one shot, a 3, and made it would be tied (at worst) for the top offensive player in the country.

soccerdud
01-06-2019, 08:09 PM
The problem with the title, and the OP is that a walkon that shot one shot, a 3, and made it would be tied (at worst) for the top offensive player in the country.

this is literally true. in 2013 Mike Hart was KenPom's overall #1 ranked offensive player in the country, with an efficiency rating of 163.3. here's the link, but i'm pretty sure you'll need a subscription to see it: https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Gonzaga&y=2013

Malastein
01-06-2019, 08:35 PM
Combined PPG / RPG Stats

Hachimura / Clarke (18-19): 38.4 / 14.5

Morrison / Batista (05-06): 47.4 / 14.9

Rui & Brandon are pretty darn good. . .best tandem ever ? Lot of season left for them to claim that title. . .


Would love to see how they compare in terms of efficiency. Sabonis and Wiltjier also have to be considered, as do Dickau and Stepp.

avid-zag-fan
01-07-2019, 06:25 AM
this is literally true. in 2013 Mike Hart was KenPom's overall #1 ranked offensive player in the country, with an efficiency rating of 163.3. here's the link, but i'm pretty sure you'll need a subscription to see it: https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Gonzaga&y=2013

Mike Hart was one of my (many) favorites. Likely that the formula for the efficiency ranking includes things like assists and offensive rebounds in addition to field goal %. Hart's 163 ranking is the highest on the site which starts in 2004. a couple in the low 150's, 3 in the low 140's (including Kyle Bankhead), but mostly in the 130's. Hart received a lot of criticism of his offense on this board, though mainly his Jr. year.
If I ever start a thread again, I'll put considerably more thought into using a word like like top in the title without first defining it.

rennis
01-07-2019, 06:40 AM
Combined PPG / RPG Stats

Hachimura / Clarke (18-19): 38.4 / 14.5

Morrison / Batista (05-06): 47.4 / 14.9

Rui & Brandon are pretty darn good. . .best tandem ever ? Lot of season left for them to claim that title. . .

As a scoring tandem I don't know that we'll ever (?) see those guys topped again, especially with the balance and depth GU has lately.

Defensively Rui and Clarke are a much better tandem, FWIW.

Mojo13
01-07-2019, 07:23 AM
Would love to see how they compare in terms of efficiency. Sabonis and Wiltjier also have to be considered, as do Dickau and Stepp.

Actually it is Olynyk you should be looking at and PER and BPM as the stats.

Clarke is putting up one of the three best seasons in the last decade behind Zion and Anthony Davis. Also in the top 10 is Olynyk.

I think the majority here arenít too sure what most advanced stats are or mean and thus donít understand how good Clarke is (and KO was). Heck, I am still figuring it all out.

mgadfly
01-07-2019, 08:32 AM
Offensive rating isn't exactly what some seem to think it is on this board. I recently wrote a script to extract data from box scores on the internet and calculate stats (like kenpom does but I'm an amateur and wanted a few of my own) such as Offensive Rating. A 1-1 walk-on would not literally be the top player assuming that a similar player was also 1-1 but also had an assist, offensive rebound, etc ...

The use of the word "top" is unfortunate as "most efficient" or "most efficient per minute" might have kept some of the criticism at bay. The top offensive player isn't the one with the most points per game as you need to consider the context of those points per game. I remember playing a team in high school and they had a kid that went to Montana State on scholarship who was averaging something like 35 points when we played them. He barely played defense (loitering around half court) and as soon as a bucket was made (or missed) they threw it up the court and he jacked up a shot as quickly as possible. He was scoring 35 points on 40 shot attempts and there was basically no offensive rebounds or assists because it was usually him taking that shot against a couple of defenders who would get back. He may have been leading the state in scoring, but he was not the "top" offensive player. The same is true for Dean Oliver's offensive rating. It is only one stat to consider and can't be taken out of context. The next stat the eye should drift to is % of shots or % of possessions.

Adam Morrison, Off Rating = 120.0, %shots = 36.5
That is a high usage player still scoring at a great efficiency rate. He was #51 in efficiency and #11 in shot percentage and 39th in minutes percentage. That's all context to show how great that 2006 season really was.

Batista, OR = 121.7 (more efficient than Morrison), %shots = 26.3, %Min = 80.4.
That's a great season, but he isn't taking nearly the load that Morrison was.

Daye, OR = 101.7 (not efficient), %shots = 25.7, %min = 65.3.
Daye's offensive season is one of the rare examples of a guy taking too many shots and not doing enough other things on the offensive side of the ball. Micah Downs had an ORTG of 119.3, Gray 120.3, Heytvelt 118.8, Bouldin 119.3, and Pargo was at 107.1 (even Meech was more efficient, 105.9, than Daye was). But Day was our highest volume player that season.

Olynyk, OR = 123.3, %shots = 29.3, %min = 60.4 (only played in 32 of 34 games)
High usage (not insane Morrison usage, but very high) and extremely efficient.
Harris, OR = 116.3, %shots = 25.8
Hart, OR = 163.3, %shots = 4.5, %min = 42.4

Mike Hart was crazy efficient. He almost never took a shot taking less than 1 in 20 of his team's attempts while he was on the floor.

My cousin made 72 three pointers as a freshman in HS playing on varsity. I made 6 of 10 three point attempts that season. I always tell him how I'm the "top" three point shooter on that team. And 3FG% backs me up. But clearly I wasn't the "best" or the "top." Looking at Offensive Rating without the context of usage stats will be very misleading.

bartruff1
01-07-2019, 09:28 AM
I worked with statistics for about 40 years....both applied in the design of facilities and theoretical in published peer reviewed research.....

I think I know something about their value and more importantly about their limitations....in Engineering the standards have been identified ( ASTM, AASHTO, MUTCD and others ) and you have to be tested and certified to use them …

In research , during peer review, the professors will have their entire class scrub your calculations looking for a gotcha... stakeholders will hire firms to do the same....

When you have crunched all the numbers.... you have to look at the answer and ask if that makes sense.... does it pass the eye test....the smell test...and apply what is known as Engineering Judgement....

I will always remember a Professor in grad school saying that if you are studying a statistic for a hour and 10 minutes....you have wasted a hour....

avid-zag-fan
01-07-2019, 02:47 PM
I'm sure coaches look very closely at those % used numbers, but not many zag players make the upper categories. The balanced attack of highly skilled players has to be a defensive coaches nightmare. Morrison was truly amazing -- unstoppable. great offensive players around him as well and really a fun team to watch.
But this years team even better because they're really good and they play again in a couple of days.

RenoZag
01-07-2019, 07:39 PM
If I ever start a thread again . . .

Hope you do. It's good to see fresh names on the MBB.