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MontanaCoyote
12-05-2018, 07:49 AM
Long wait for game tonight and 10 degrees here at 5,150 feet, so just wondering;

If you bet on games using only Kenpom as your bible and always picking the team with the highest
overall rating, what do you think your percentage of success would be? No over/under, just picking the winner.

What say you?

Ekrub
12-05-2018, 07:58 AM
Against the spread or moneyline?

Zagdawg
12-05-2018, 08:02 AM
Here is an article from earlier this year that might help somewhat.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/college-basketball/kenpom-vs-sagarin/

Zagceo
12-05-2018, 08:04 AM
the "money line" has built in equalizer over time.



Money Line:
Commonly employed in baseball and hockey wagering, basketball moneylines have become more popular in Las Vegas in recent years. The team does not have to win by a certain number of points it only needs to win the game. But you need to risk more to pick the favorite, since they are expected to win. The negative value still means a favorite (-220) and the positive value indicates the underdog (+200). Picture the number 100 sitting in the middle of these two values. Example: if you want to back that -220 favorite, you would risk $220 in order to win $100. On the +200 underdog, you risk $100 and win $200 if the underdog wins. It's a simple way to have the risk-reward scenario





Wash +900
Zags -1600
Bet $100 on Wash to win payoff $900
Bet $1600 on Zags to win payoff $100

Pleasant Peninsula
12-05-2018, 08:10 AM
If you bet on games using only Kenpom as your bible and always picking the team with the highest
overall rating, what do you think your percentage of success would be?

If you were simply picking the winners in the money line, you might achieve a 80% clip at picking the winners, though that wouldn't necessarily guarantee you a profit, as most of those "wins" would be like tonight's GU-UW game, where you would be putting up over a grand to home to win a $100.

Against the spread, you might be able use KenPom to achieve a 53 or 55% winning percentage, which is not quite enough to be profitable, as the house vig is gonna run between 5 and 10%.

MontanaCoyote
12-05-2018, 01:00 PM
Long wait for game tonight and 10 degrees here at 5,150 feet, so just wondering;

If you bet on games using only Kenpom as your bible and always picking the team with the highest
overall rating, what do you think your percentage of success would be? No over/under, just picking the winner.

What say you?

Thanks to all for your takes. I think I get it. I don’t bet but I do like to learn.
Best,
MC