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View Full Version : FiveThirtyEight's Bracket Probabilities



caduceus
03-11-2018, 08:28 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/

Out of our region, final four probabilities:

2 UNC: 25%
4 Gonzaga 24%
1 Xavier 18%
3 Michigan 14%
6 Houston 7%
5 Ohio State 5%

and goes down from there. Pretty good draw!

The Zags have the 7th best probability of making the FF in the entire field, and that's as a four-seed. That's better than 9 teams in the field with equal or better seeds than GU, including 1 one-seed, 2 two-seeds, 3 three-seeds, and 3 four-seeds!

kdaleb
03-11-2018, 08:38 PM
Says a lot about the difference between the statistics the committee uses such as the RPI (which are strictly backward looking) versus the predictive statistics used by folks like Sagarin, KenPom, and 538. Predictive statistics generally like us a lot more than the RPI.

caduceus
03-11-2018, 08:55 PM
Says a lot about the difference between the statistics the committee uses such as the RPI (which are strictly backward looking) versus the predictive statistics used by folks like Sagarin, KenPom, and 538. Predictive statistics generally like us a lot more than the RPI.

Even most of the retrodictive methodologies rank the Zags higher than the RPI. It's such a flawed method that clearly overemphasizes SOS. I wouldn't be surprised if most top teams have a mathematician on board to find ways to maximize your RPI. If they don't this year, they will next year. RPI has gone from "just a tool we use a bit" to "quartile wins are based entirely on RPI rankings, and we double weight them for home/away since home/away is already cooked into the RPI from the beginning."