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View Full Version : Wonder if our pounding BYU locks up a Big Dance 4 Seed



Kiddwell
03-06-2018, 09:05 PM
Sure feels like this team is better than a five.

:boxing:


:]

FuManShoes
03-06-2018, 09:11 PM
I just wonder what it will take for the Zags to get the benefit of the doubt. Does the committee really want a storyline about how the Zags were the most underseeeded and disrespected team in the field? They’re teeing it by seeding a top #5ish team as a late 4 or 5.

zagsfanforlife
03-06-2018, 09:24 PM
The ####ty part is going to be when the committee tries to be cute like they always do and pairs us vs Middle Tennessee State round 1 in the 5 vs 12. The way we are playing i think we can take MTSU 9/10 times, but they are a very good team this year who will be an 11 or 12 seed with experienced seniors. That plus i think the Zags are way better than a 5 seed.

sheps001
03-06-2018, 09:28 PM
I agree with you. We should now get a 4 seed. But how is the location of the four teams in the four seed determined? The important thing is that we be out West for the first two games. After that, the lowest seed where we play our first two games out West. After that, being out West in the Regionals. i do feel that crossing three time zones, even two, has a decidedly negative effect on any team. Saw this when we played Nova at MSG (we started fine and went flat fast) and I remember games against Davidson and Syracuse which were out East where we were flat. I saw us lose a couple of times in the Chicago area and I think the travel had an effect. This is an underrated factor.

GonzaGAW
03-06-2018, 09:34 PM
- we deserve a 4 seed, we, I mean the team earned a 4 seed. any objective eye test would tell you they are a 4 seed.
- but whats the big deal? bragging rights? respect? the 4 and 5 seeds play each other anyway (or do so 80% of the time) and then next up is a one seed (95% of the time).
- sure staying out west would be great, boise would be ideal. unless a 5 seed costs us boise I do not see a 'demonstrable' downside.
- if we get a 5 seed maybe the team uses that as some extra motivation?

Kiddwell
03-06-2018, 09:46 PM
Would be happy to play every 1 Seed except Villanova. Virginia, Kansas, Xavieróthink weíd have a great chance against them.


:]

CdAZagFan
03-06-2018, 10:13 PM
Don't think so... This game will be a distant memory when selection Sunday rolls around. A ton of basketball still to take place.

Zagger
03-07-2018, 12:57 AM
If we get a 4 or higher seed itíll be a combo of the committeeís respect for Few & crew, road wins, how the guys are playing individually + as a team and the overall Dance experience of GUís program. The clobberings as of late canít hurt. All in all I do expect at least a 4 seed.

I donít care who the Zags are paired with. These Zags have steadily morphed into a win machine.

CDC84
03-07-2018, 01:29 AM
If they give GU a #5, the #4 isn't going to like it after what GU put on display in Vegas.

That is, if Gonzaga gets out of the dangerous 5/12 game.

CarolinaZagFan
03-07-2018, 03:45 AM
I think the prognosticators are wrong and Zags end up a 3 seed.

DixieZag
03-07-2018, 04:01 AM
I agree with you. We should now get a 4 seed. But how is the location of the four teams in the four seed determined? The important thing is that we be out West for the first two games. After that, the lowest seed where we play our first two games out West. After that, being out West in the Regionals. i do feel that crossing three time zones, even two, has a decidedly negative effect on any team. Saw this when we played Nova at MSG (we started fine and went flat fast) and I remember games against Davidson and Syracuse which were out East where we were flat. I saw us lose a couple of times in the Chicago area and I think the travel had an effect. This is an underrated factor.

A very important consideration/point.

Along the same lines, the more time zones crossed and more foreign the setting, the more likely the guys are playing some other team in their back yard, which compounds the time zone issue you mention.

Compare a 60 minute flight to mountain time zone Boise, playing in an arena full of our fans making a 1/2 drive from most areas where our alum reside (or 60 min flight) compare to an arena in the southeast or mid-west.



OTOH, this team sure seems to respond to disrespect. If they get hammered with a 5 seed as the 5th ranked team in country (or at least top 7), that would have to sting and we'd expect them to come out white-hot.

I'm sure the athletic department knows if they can maybe go a day early if they get shipped out. They are so good at looking at all considerations.

FlyZag
03-07-2018, 05:26 AM
4 or 5 are almost identical, you play a 13 or a 12 then face the 4/5. So I'm okay with either. Of course, I'd much rather have a 3... and get to play the 2 instead of the 1.

I think the projected 1 seeds are really good. (Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier) I don't think we matchup well with any of them. And I wouldn't want to face Duke either. If it wouldn't be too much to ask, can you also please have us avoid Clemson, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Michigan and Michigan State.. that'd be great (top kenpom defensive teams)

TravelinZag
03-07-2018, 05:35 AM
No. Zag’s fate with seed is completely out their hands, and spends on losses by teams perceived as “better.” Can’t book a flight (except more expensive refundable), book a hotel (all 4-day minimum, nonrefundable) or seek tickets before selection Sunday, so probably won’t go.

RPI even more important to the committee than before.

jazzdelmar
03-07-2018, 05:36 AM
Nah. BYU is not a major player and the Zags always win the WCC, at least that's what the CBB experts east of McDonald Pass and the Good Food Store think. May inch to a 4, but 4-5 hardly matters. In retrospect, beating Mary's would have resonated more. But not much more. The big winner was Tils and to a lesser extent Rui and Norvell. The selection committee will be opaque, despite whatever chair-nitwit they send out to explain to the fawning TBS/ESPN analysts. Hope Bilas gets a shot at him.

ZagsObserver
03-07-2018, 05:37 AM
4 or 5 are almost identical, you play a 13 or a 12 then face the 4/5. So I'm okay with either. Of course, I'd much rather have a 3... and get to play the 2 instead of the 1.

I think the projected 1 seeds are really good. (Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier) I don't think we matchup well with any of them. And I wouldn't want to face Duke either. If it wouldn't be too much to ask, can you also please have us avoid Clemson, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Michigan and Michigan State.. that'd be great (top kenpom defensive teams)

Been over this many times here. The 4 and 5 seeds are not practically the same thing. The 5/12 matchup is hard. Taking the last 5 years as a sample, the 12 seeds won 50 percent of the time.

jazzdelmar
03-07-2018, 05:39 AM
Been over this many times here. The 4 and 5 seeds are not practically the same thing. The 5/12 matchup is hard. Taking the last 5 years as a sample, the 12 seeds won 50 percent of the time.

Man knows his stats.

Reborn
03-07-2018, 05:54 AM
I think the prognosticators are wrong and Zags end up a 3 seed.

I'm with you CarolinaZagfan. I don't know where they will end up, but I believe Gonzaga is as good as any 2 or 3 seed. I've seen all the teams a lot. Gonzaga is playing great basketball right now. I don't believe in the RPI. It's a pity that the Committee used it. Everyone knows that the best ranking systems are Kenpom, Sagarin and BPI. The Committee is trying to rig the tournament this year to keep mid majors out of the Final Four. It won't work. It never does. Why do you think it's called March Madness?

FuManShoes
03-07-2018, 06:02 AM
I don't think the Conmittee will make the Zags a 5 seed for PR reasons. As I said above, is doing so worth the hassle of having to answer for it? The Zags made the title game last year as nearly won it, are tied with just a couple teams for the longest streak of first round wins and NCAA appearances, are good TV and come in on a hot streak after dominating their conference tourney. We'll get a 4 seed if not a 3 based on that and not the numbers, even if the rankings and advanced stats say we're closer to a 2-3 seed than the mystifyingly obtuse RPI and quadrant foolishness.

Zagceo
03-07-2018, 06:05 AM
4 Seed in the East....careful what u wish for

rennis
03-07-2018, 06:09 AM
I agree with you. We should now get a 4 seed. But how is the location of the four teams in the four seed determined? The important thing is that we be out West for the first two games. After that, the lowest seed where we play our first two games out West. After that, being out West in the Regionals. i do feel that crossing three time zones, even two, has a decidedly negative effect on any team. Saw this when we played Nova at MSG (we started fine and went flat fast) and I remember games against Davidson and Syracuse which were out East where we were flat. I saw us lose a couple of times in the Chicago area and I think the travel had an effect. This is an underrated factor.

We saw this last year when a very underseeded WVU traveled West to play GU in the Sweet 16. Everything about that sucked for everyone.

Zaga
03-07-2018, 06:17 AM
4 Seed in the East....careful what u wish for

ugh! I don't like it a bit....but still have to win whoever and wherever we play. Go Zags!

Samiam
03-07-2018, 06:21 AM
Can anyone explain why 5/12 is a more volatile pairing than 4/13? There must be a reason.

Hoopaholic
03-07-2018, 06:22 AM
Can anyone explain why 5/12 is a more volatile pairing than 4/13? There must be a reason.

The 12 generally mid major conference champs and still get big boys who are decent
13 is usually the smaller conferences thus less likely to have a center who can hold own

Just my view

mgadfly
03-07-2018, 06:47 AM
The 12 generally mid major conference champs and still get big boys who are decent
13 is usually the smaller conferences thus less likely to have a center who can hold own

Just my view

I agree. I usually think the 12 seeds are the most under-seeded team in the tournament. They are usually champions of one-bid leagues, but the better one-bid leagues. So they usually know how to win, are veteran teams that have built toward the moment for three or four years, and are playing an opponent that had some flaw that kept them out of the top 4 lines.

jazzdelmar
03-07-2018, 06:50 AM
The 12 generally mid major conference champs and still get big boys who are decent
13 is usually the smaller conferences thus less likely to have a center who can hold own

Just my view

The first 12 is 7 slots higher or better than the worst 13, there's that.

mgadfly
03-07-2018, 06:53 AM
The first 12 is 7 slots higher or better than the worst 13, there's that.

But the worst 12 is 7 slots worse than the best 11, but still out performs them.

In recent years, that might be because the 11 played a play-in game. But overall, I think the regular season/conference tourney champs (win both) of one-bid leagues end up on that 12 line. The last major conference teams or 3rd place A10 or MWC type teams end up on the 11 line (major conference teams with losing conference records or high mid-major teams that didn't win either their regular season or conference tournament).

Kiddwell
03-07-2018, 06:55 AM
...Joey Brackets right now has the Zags a 4 Seed in the East (Villanova #01 there). San Diego is the tourney site. (Thought for a moment it was Pittsburgh.)


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

:]

jazzdelmar
03-07-2018, 06:58 AM
But the worst 12 is 7 slots worse than the best 11, but still out performs them.

In recent years, that might be because the 11 played a play-in game. But overall, I think the regular season/conference tourney champs (win both) of one-bid leagues end up on that 12 line. The last major conference teams or 3rd place A10 or MWC type teams end up on the 11 line (major conference teams with losing conference records or high mid-major teams that didn't win either their regular season or conference tournament).

Right. The 11's tend to be disappointing P5 teams that were put in by the corrupt committee just to earn first round $$$$ for their league.

mgadfly
03-07-2018, 07:03 AM
...Joey Brackets right now has the Zags a 4 Seed in the East (Villanova #01 there). San Diego is the tourney site. (Thought for a moment it was Pittsburgh.)


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

:]


I think he might be trying to shame the committee into doing the right thing. Based on their earlier decisions I don't think the committee has us in front of any of these teams:

1. Virginia
1. Villanova
1. Duke
1. Purdue
2. UNC
2. Kansas
2. Cinci
2. Michigan
3. Xavier
3. MSU
3. Auburn
3. Tennessee
4. Texas Tech
4. West VA

Probably in the same conversation as:
4. Clemson
4. Wichita State
5. Gonzaga
5. Ohio State
5. Kentucky
5. Arizona
6. TCU

The numbers aren't really in a specific order, just to show the teams that are probably in the conversation for the 4 line with approximated position. How does GU stay or move to the 4 line when a lot of those teams have a chance to move up in their tourneys with little down side of a loss (since it'd be to a P5 team). If Arizona wins the P12, they'll be above us.

Sandpointzagsfan
03-07-2018, 07:03 AM
Can anyone explain why 5/12 is a more volatile pairing than 4/13? There must be a reason.
I believe if Gonzaga gets the four seed they will play in Boise. If they get the five they will be matched up against Arizona in San Diego. But to answer the question the 4 typically has a more home court advantage then the five.

Zagceo
03-07-2018, 07:10 AM
I think he might be trying to shame the committee into doing the right thing. Based on their earlier decisions I don't think the committee has us in front of any of these teams:

The numbers aren't really in a specific order, just to show the teams that are probably in the conversation for the 4 line with approximated position. How does GU stay or move to the 4 line when a lot of those teams have a chance to move up in their tourneys with little down side of a loss (since it'd be to a P5 team). If Arizona wins the P12, they'll be above us.

have you seen these Nitty gritty sheets on NCAA site?

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/March%206,%202018%20Nitty%20Gritty.pdf

mgadfly
03-07-2018, 07:14 AM
have you seen these Nitty gritty sheets on NCAA site?

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/March%206,%202018%20Nitty%20Gritty.pdf

I hadn't. I've been looking on KenPom and http://barttorvik.com/teamsheets.php?sort=9&conlimit=All

Thanks!

Zagceo
03-07-2018, 07:18 AM
I hadn't. I've been looking on KenPom and http://barttorvik.com/teamsheets.php?sort=9&conlimit=All

Thanks!

also this

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/March%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf

208Zag
03-07-2018, 07:25 AM
Don't think so... This game will be a distant memory when selection Sunday rolls around. A ton of basketball still to take place.

Two of this years committee members are Tom Holmoe, BYU AD and Craig Thompson, MWC Commissioner . . . I should think that both of these guys would remember what Gonzaga did last night when it comes to seeding.

SunDevilGolfZag
03-07-2018, 07:34 AM
I wonder if Committee members actually watching basketball games is a "factor". If so, and if they actually understand the game, then what is our seed when factored in with all the metrics? How could we not be a 4 or better. A solid 3 seems pretty plausible to me

Coach Crazy
03-07-2018, 07:37 AM
I wonder if Committee members actually watching basketball games is a "factor". If so, and if they actually understand the game, then what is our seed when factored in with all the metrics? How could we not be a 4 or better. A solid 3 seems pretty plausible to me

This is why we need to get away from Quadrant wins and RPI/KPI. If you look at KenPom/Sagarin/BPI, we're the last two seed. Which I think is fitting.

Zagceo
03-07-2018, 07:45 AM
Two of this years committee members are Tom Holmoe, BYU AD and Craig Thompson, MWC Commissioner . . . I should think that both of these guys would remember what Gonzaga did last night when it comes to seeding.

don't forget Bruce Rasmussen is the Committee Chair.....director of athletics Creighton

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-committee

CDC84
03-07-2018, 08:24 AM
Joey Brackets is really good at picking teams, but there is no way that Gonzaga is playing in San Diego as a 4 seed. The committee is well aware that if GU gets a 4 in Boise, they will sell more tickets. Lunardi has Wichita St. as a 4 in Boise. San Diego is a just a little bit further from Wichita than Boise is.

That is a brutal draw for GU. In addition to having to travel to the other end of the country for the regional (in Boston), the #2 seed, Duke, is probably going to be one of the top 2 picks to win the whole deal. In addition to having more talent than any team, their defense has improved more in one season than any team I can ever recall. Their defense was in the 90's in early January, and it is now at #11. And even if GU pulls off the upset and beats Duke, they might have Villanova to deal with. Real tough. The only thing I would say is that at least GU is a much better team than when they played Nova back in early December. Also, Few has seen them and knows what they're all about. Even the first round matchup vs. Murray State is a tough deal.

Zagceo
03-07-2018, 08:32 AM
Joey Brackets is really good at picking teams, but there is no way that Gonzaga is playing in San Diego as a 4 seed. The committee is well aware that if GU gets a 4 in Boise, they will sell more tickets. Lunardi has Wichita St. as a 4 in Boise. San Diego is a just a little bit further from Wichita than Boise is.

That is a brutal draw for GU. In addition to having to travel to the other end of the country for the regional (in Boston), the #2 seed, Duke, is probably going to be one of the top 2 picks to win the whole deal. In addition to having more talent than any team, their defense has improved more in one season than any team I can ever recall. Their defense was in the 90's in early January, and it is now at #11. And even if GU pulls off the upset and beats Duke, they might have Villanova to deal with. Real tough. The only thing I would say is that at least GU is a much better team than when they played Nova back in early December. Also, Few has seen them and knows what they're all about. Even the first round matchup vs. Murray State is a tough deal.

How do ya separate Arizona/Gonzaga? or how do ya keep em together?

RPI was created to protect P5 up to now

caldwellzag
03-07-2018, 08:32 AM
Here is one from FoxSports they have us a 4 in the South.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/bracketeering

NotoriousZ
03-07-2018, 08:50 AM
I think the prognosticators are wrong and Zags end up a 3 seed.

I think we need some friends on the committee. It would be nice if someone was there to point out that Kispert was a starter for us right before he was injured and sidelined for us in two of our four losses (correct me if Iím wrong). And the fact that heís still part of our tourney-time seven man rotation shows how valuable he is to this team.

I think we should be a three seed, now letís see what happens. Selection Sunday will be exciting as usual.

mgadfly
03-07-2018, 09:17 AM
Currently, of the 102 brackets that bracket matrix is tracking, we average a 5 seed. We range from 3 seed to 6 seed. The question to me is, how many of the 3 and 4 seeds can damage their profile enough to slip below us? How many of the 5, 6 and 7 seeds can get hot enough in conference tourneys to push ahead of us?

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

CDC84
03-07-2018, 09:34 AM
I just hope that next season the committee holds to its promise of moving away from this RPI crap. I don't want them to use the excuse of, "well we couldn't come up with an all-in-one metric that captures everything we want to capture, so it's back to the RPI."

DixieZag
03-07-2018, 09:53 AM
Currently, of the 102 brackets that bracket matrix is tracking, we average a 5 seed. We range from 3 seed to 6 seed. The question to me is, how many of the 3 and 4 seeds can damage their profile enough to slip below us? How many of the 5, 6 and 7 seeds can get hot enough in conference tourneys to push ahead of us?

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

Unbelievable.

The 6th ranked team in the country on a huge win streak and playing good ball is averaging a 5 seed, all bc the quadrant system so obviously screws the non P5 guys over.

Having the BYU A.D. and the MWC guy on the committee ought to provide some motivation to award us a protected seed. But, amazed at the prognostication.

Appears to be 2003 all over again, only this time we're coming off an E8, SS, Champ Game run for the last 3 years, so average is E8 finish, and now this team playing very well.

And odds are we get that 5 seed, maybe a 4 matched against the top rated team in the tourney and perhaps AZ as the 4 (yay, not).

IF this team gets hosed, I do bet they really get their gumption up. But, still, having to play a tough 12 or 13, then playing a team like AZ and possibly Nova/VA is murderers row IMO.