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White lightning
02-26-2018, 06:37 PM
We finally jumped ST Mary's . Last week SM was 32 zags 44. This week Zags 28 SM 38. Last year this week Zags 7 and undefeated SM 16 with a 24-3 record with 2 losses to us. It takes time for the RPI to adjust to the schedule but eventually it evens out. I believe our loss to SDSU is what has held us down in the RPI more than our wins to lesser teams. Just my thoughts.

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raise the zag
02-26-2018, 06:39 PM
We finally jumped ST Mary's . Last week SM was 32 zags 44. This week Zags 28 SM 38. Last year this week Zags 7 and undefeated SM 16 with a 24-3 record with 2 losses to us. It takes time for the RPI to adjust to the schedule but eventually it evens out. I believe our loss to SDSU is what has held us down in the RPI more than our wins to lesser teams. Just my thoughts.

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That loss to SDSU...smh.

Dragging us down.

Our only 100+ RPI loss...

LTownZag
02-26-2018, 06:51 PM
I also noticed that our defense rank on Kenpom.com went form something in the teens to #24. Did we really play particularly bad defense against USD and BYU?

Can that drop be because teams we played earlier in the year are all now scoring less than their earlier averages, hence we are theoretically being revised as not quite as strong as it seemed when we held them to low scores back then?

Outraged
02-26-2018, 06:56 PM
I think Howard and Incarnate Word is our problem. Our RPI was actually lowest before conference than after. So let's chalk it up to poor scheduling.

Zagdawg
02-26-2018, 07:08 PM
Our opponents entered their conference season games and won enough to help bump our RPI and we did not have any bad losses in conference play.

23dpg
02-26-2018, 07:08 PM
I think Howard and Incarnate Word is our problem. Our RPI was actually lowest before conference than after. So let's chalk it up to poor scheduling.

Few talked about it on his show tonight. Said he thought the bad teams would t be so bad. Plus the WCC, yes he did mention it.

amaronizag
02-26-2018, 07:31 PM
LTownZag: The defense metric used by KenPom is how many points per possession we allow our opponents to score against us. Where we rank in that metric is how we stand relative to the other teams in the nation. We could improve our defense and allow fewer points per possession, but others could improve more, and we would drop in the standings. OR.....Look at the LMU game where GU held them to 46 points. A casual look at the score would lead one to think that our defense improved a lot, and it did. But if it was a low possession game, LMU might have been very efficient and scored at a high rate per possession so GU could have actually dropped nationally in our ranking as a result. The metric may not show what you think it does.

caduceus
02-26-2018, 07:47 PM
Two things:

1. The win vs. Incarnate Word dropped our RPI -1.27. The road loss vs. SDSU raised our RPI +0.33 (maybe a tad more as SDSU's has a couple games left to play). Had GU won at SDSU, their current RPI would be #23 instead of #26 (SOS #130). If the Incarnate Word game was simply dropped (not played), GU's RPI would be #23 (SOS #118). So both games essentially had an equivalent effect.

However, if we had played a middling team at home instead of the disaster that Incinerated Word is, say, Portland State (RPI #145), GU's RPI would rank #22 (SOS #113). If you additionally drop Howard and replace with Cal St. Fullerton (RPI #156), assuming a home win, GU's RPI is #18 (SOS #99).

Note these numbers are not concrete, but rather relative (and academic), since RPI Forecast's "predictions do not include the full set of future conference tournament games, they may differ slightly from the predictions on rpiforecast," but it gives you the basic idea.

You can play around with the RPI Wizard and add, drop, or change outcomes of games here (click image):

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizardbanner_small.gif (http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Gonzaga.html)


2. As for the drop in GU's KenPom defensive efficiency rank this week, there are a number of teams clustered around GU separated by only about 0.1 points per 100 possessions (in fact it's 96.7, 96.8, GU 96.9, 97.0, 97.0), so if GU plays even slightly under their average, their defensive rank falls by several spots.

White lightning
02-26-2018, 08:23 PM
Our best RPI in the last 8 years after regular season was in 2014/15 at 8 with a 28-2 record. Last year we were at 11 with a 29-1 record. We are at 28 with a 27-4 record. In 2013/14 "similar RPI" we were a 26 with a 24-6 record. It doesn't seem to matter who we have played this year compared to other year's it's who we lost to. By the end of the season if we loose less than 5 we'll be in the top 20 RPI. I think more than acceptable when half of our games are in the WCC. In march it doesn't matter what seed we are given you just have to win to move on.

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willandi
02-26-2018, 08:31 PM
I think the recent improvement to the Zags RPI is in response to my recent thread questioning it. I am sure it is because of me and not any silly mathematical formula!

MontanaCoyote
02-26-2018, 08:46 PM
I think the recent improvement to the Zags RPI is in response to my recent thread questioning it. I am sure it is because of me and not any silly mathematical formula!

Could Be!

DixieZag
02-27-2018, 06:14 AM
Two things:

1. The win vs. Incarnate Word dropped our RPI -1.27. The road loss vs. SDSU raised our RPI +0.33 (maybe a tad more as SDSU's has a couple games left to play). Had GU won at SDSU, their current RPI would be #23 instead of #26 (SOS #130). If the Incarnate Word game was simply dropped (not played), GU's RPI would be #23 (SOS #118). So both games essentially had an equivalent effect.

However, if we had played a middling team at home instead of the disaster that Incinerated Word is, say, Portland State (RPI #145), GU's RPI would rank #22 (SOS #113). If you additionally drop Howard and replace with Cal St. Fullerton (RPI #156), assuming a home win, GU's RPI is #18 (SOS #99).

Note these numbers are not concrete, but rather relative (and academic), since RPI Forecast's "predictions do not include the full set of future conference tournament games, they may differ slightly from the predictions on rpiforecast," but it gives you the basic idea.

You can play around with the RPI Wizard and add, drop, or change outcomes of games here (click image):

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizardbanner_small.gif (http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Gonzaga.html)


2. As for the drop in GU's KenPom defensive efficiency rank this week, there are a number of teams clustered around GU separated by only about 0.1 points per 100 possessions (in fact it's 96.7, 96.8, GU 96.9, 97.0, 97.0), so if GU plays even slightly under their average, their defensive rank falls by several spots.

Fantastic post. Thanks.

OntZags
02-27-2018, 06:22 AM
I think the recent improvement to the Zags RPI is in response to my recent thread questioning it. I am sure it is because of me and not any silly mathematical formula!

While you are at it, can you question my credit card debt?

I could use that number getting smaller too. Thanks. :)