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View Full Version : What will our final NCAA tourny seed be if we win out?



IowaSERE
02-16-2018, 11:40 AM
There has been much discussion about what our seed will be. Obviously a lot can still happen, but assuming we win out, what will we get on selection Sunday? Teamrankings.com gives us a 61% chance to win out on the season.

I believe that our seed has a lot to do with our total losses. In fact, since 99, Gonzaga has been seeded within one of their total losses 12 times.

If we finish the season 29-4, what seed will we get?

99 7 losses #10 seed
00 9 - #10
01 7 - #12
02 4 - #6
03 9 - #9
04 3 - #2
05 5 - #3
06 4 - #3
07 11 - #10
08 8 - #7
09 6 - #4
10 7 - #8
11 10 - #11
12 7 - #7
13 3 - #1
14 7 - #8
15 3 - #2
16 8 - #11
17 2 - #1

former1dog
02-16-2018, 11:41 AM
A 3 seed in the West.

cggonzaga
02-16-2018, 11:52 AM
A 3 seed in the West.

Probably right but I don’t know how you couldn’t give a top 5 team in the country any lower than a 2seed.

23dpg
02-16-2018, 11:56 AM
2 or 3

willandi
02-16-2018, 11:57 AM
There has been much discussion about what our seed will be. Obviously a lot can still happen, but assuming we win out, what will we get on selection Sunday? Teamrankings.com gives us a 61% chance to win out on the season.

I believe that our seed has a lot to do with our total losses. In fact, since 99, Gonzaga has been seeded within one of their total losses 12 times.

If we finish the season 29-4, what seed will we get?

99 7 losses #10 seed
00 9 - #10
01 7 - #12
02 4 - #6
03 9 - #9
04 3 - #2
05 5 - #3
06 4 - #3
07 11 - #10
08 8 - #7
09 6 - #4
10 7 - #8
11 10 - #11
12 7 - #7
13 3 - #1
14 7 - #8
15 3 - #2
16 8 - #11
17 2 - #1

I think a 3 seed, but by 'end of the season' do you mean after conference tourney or NCAA tourney, cause last year the second loss was in the last game of the year.

Mr Vulture
02-16-2018, 12:49 PM
I'm saying three seed but since they still look at the ridiculous RPI, it wouldn't surprise me if it was a 4 seed. Can't see a 2 seed in any scenario for the same reason. I know they are going to use RPI against us but we haven't had any bad losses yet, the worst being a decent SD State team that we should have beat. We have some very good wins as well.

Markburn1
02-16-2018, 02:04 PM
I'm saying three seed but since they still look at the ridiculous RPI, it wouldn't surprise me if it was a 4 seed. Can't see a 2 seed in any scenario for the same reason. I know they are going to use RPI against us but we haven't had any bad losses yet, the worst being a decent SD State team that we should have beat. We have some very good wins as well.

Calling San Diego State decent is very generous.

dhozagfan08
02-16-2018, 05:56 PM
Hoping for, and think we would deserve a 3 seed. But my money would be a 4 because I have no faith in the selection committee to get it right.

LongIslandZagFan
02-16-2018, 06:22 PM
Expect... 5
Deserve... 3 or 4

Zags11
02-16-2018, 07:55 PM
#3 seed in west

VinnyZag
02-16-2018, 08:38 PM
For what it's worth NONE of the bracket projections listed at bracketmatrix.com (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) have GU better than a 4 seed, which is astounding. One guy (I've never heard of him) has them as an 8.

To be clear, the guy who has them an 8 seed is an outlier. Almost every bracket has a 4 or a 5.

23dpg
02-16-2018, 08:52 PM
For what it's worth NONE of the bracket projections listed at bracketmatrix.com (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) have GU better than a 4 seed, which is astounding. One guy (I've never heard of him) has them as an 8.

To be clear, the guy who has them an 8 seed is an outlier. Almost every bracket has a 4 or a 5.

Good find. That is amazing. I'm going to guess that most of those brackets are predictive. They are trying to guess what the committee will do. And they account for the over reliance on the rpi

Zagger
02-17-2018, 02:21 AM
Expect... 5
Deserve... 3 or 4

Ditto

TravelinZag
02-17-2018, 08:03 AM
Expect... 5
Deserve... 3 or 4

Precisely; and the post asked what WILL the seed be. Run the table and enter the dance angry.

Go Zags! Get another 25-Win season for Coach.

GoZags
02-17-2018, 08:26 AM
If we finish the season 29-4, what seed will we get?

First of all, the end of season record would be 30-4 "if" the Zags win their remaining 6 games. And while I believe the Zags would deserve a 2 or 3 seed, I think it'd be a 4 seed in Boise .... or if that doesn't happen .... a 5 seed in Nashville.

SwainZag
02-17-2018, 09:32 AM
Probably right but I don’t know how you couldn’t give a top 5 team in the country any lower than a 2seed.

Try not to pay attention to the polls when it comes to seeding. The polls are definitely more of a "what have you done for me lately" reactionary thing, while the commitee uses the whole body of work to determine seeding.

Mr Vulture
02-17-2018, 09:47 AM
Calling San Diego State decent is very generous.

14-10 is pretty much the definition of decent. Would you have no referred mediocre instead?

SwainZag
02-17-2018, 09:59 AM
14-10 is pretty much the definition of decent. Would you have no referred mediocre instead?

Mediocre. Zags picked a bad time to schedule a home and home with them. 8 out of the previous 10 years before scheduling they were a end of the season Kenpom Top 50 team.

gueastcoast
02-17-2018, 10:20 AM
Someone may have pointed this out but I didn't see it -- I think the way to think of the OP is to look at one less loss in each season, since every season (sadly) listed has ended in a loss in the NCAA Tourney. So, for example, our 2001-2 three-loss team was seeded 6 and lost to Wyoming IIRC.

The reason it's helpful to think of that way is a lot of posters here use rough cut math on the # of losses we have at the end of the season pre-NCAA Tourney as correlating to our seeding. Other than travesties such as 2002, that has largely held within a seed line or two since then.

Actually - I think Willandi made or asked about the same point.