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View Full Version : Selection Committee Top 16 Bracket Reveal Thread



RenoZag
02-11-2018, 05:48 AM
CBS TV 9:30am

Andy Katz' Take: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-02-06/college-basketballs-top-16-bracket-reveal-what-know-how-watch


ďThere is a consensus with the top three but after that it gets a bit messier,íí said Rasmussen, who was likely referring to Villanova, Virginia and Purdue as the top three, though after another chaotic week, anything is possible

Rasmussen said the 10-person committee is broken up into subcommittees that focus on the first quadrant of teams (or the top 16) and the fourth quadrant (the bottom part of the bracket with all the automatic qualifiers.)

Rasmussen said the first quadrant group of Northwestern athletic director Jim Phillips, Stanford athletic director and 2019 chair Bernard Muir and BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe have the chore of putting together the suggestive list of the top 16.

Jerry Palm's updated bracket shows Gonzaga as a three seed in the West bracket, playing in the Boise pod. . . https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

gonstu
02-11-2018, 06:03 AM
it would be huge to get that protected seed. of course i think a 3 is much preferred to a 4 seed. win out and i think they can get the 3 seed. 2 seed prob not reachable.

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2018, 06:14 AM
Do they take yesterday’s games into consideration?

KStyles
02-11-2018, 06:37 AM
Do they take yesterday’s games into consideration?

I read that they had a phone conference last night.

Edit:


Committee members are scheduled to leave Indianapolis on Thursday, but meet via teleconference Saturday night and Sunday morning, Rasmussen said.

“To make sure we’re comfortable with what will be announced on CBS,” he said.

http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-men/article198856674.html

23dpg
02-11-2018, 06:53 AM
Interesting to note, Jerry Palm’s bracket now has Gonzaga up to a 3 seed. Historically he has been very hard on the Zags.

Murphy outgo lifer
02-11-2018, 07:20 AM
So I know that the AP rankings and the Coach's Poll are very flawed ranking systems that all starts with the eye test before anyone even plays a game and it only matters if you keep winning which does not account for the strength of opposition (over simplification but for the most part this is how it works). Also, I know that this generally favors us because we play in a weaker conference and in good years we can just keep winning and winning while the other top 15 generally cannibalize each other (we also get punished a lot however if we lose a game to most of our conference is the flip side too). But I do not ever remember our tournament seed being so out of whack with our AP ranking. Maybe at most one seed lower than and at most maybe 2 seeds lower (and I do not recall a time that we were that much lower).

Given our ranking of 12 and this is before the St. Mary's win, we should be a 3 seed, however, I see most brackets have us no where near that and have us mostly between 6 and 8. I am sure that the volatility this year is intensifying the win and move up phenomenon but still it is so weird to see us bracketed so much further down than our AP and coaches ranking.

KStyles
02-11-2018, 07:24 AM
So I know that the AP rankings and the Coach's Poll are very flawed ranking systems that all starts with the eye test before anyone even plays a game and it only matters if you keep winning which does not account for the strength of opposition (over simplification but for the most part this is how it works). Also, I know that this generally favors us because we play in a weaker conference and in good years we can just keep winning and winning while the other top 15 generally cannibalize each other (we also get punished a lot however if we lose a game to most of our conference is the flip side too). But I do not ever remember our tournament seed being so out of whack with our AP ranking. Maybe at most one seed lower than and at most maybe 2 seeds lower (and I do not recall a time that we were that much lower).

Given our ranking of 12 and this is before the St. Mary's win, we should be a 3 seed, however, I see most brackets have us no where near that and have us mostly between 6 and 8. I am sure that the volatility this year is intensifying the win and move up phenomenon but still it is so weird to see us bracketed so much further down than our AP and coaches ranking.

I wouldn't say flawed. For the most part, they work exactly as you described.

ZagNative
02-11-2018, 08:21 AM
Got my TV tuned in to CBS, waiting for the show to start in 10 minutes...

Zag_Dad
02-11-2018, 08:32 AM
Here we go ....

RenoZag
02-11-2018, 08:34 AM
"Wins away from home. . ." a point of emphasis, according to Committee Chair. . .Good omen for the Zags ??

Zag_Dad
02-11-2018, 08:36 AM
Wow ... Duke and Kansas still on 2 line?

23dpg
02-11-2018, 08:36 AM
Kansas and Duke as 2s? The committee hasn’t learned a thing.

RenoZag
02-11-2018, 08:36 AM
Kansas & Duke get the blue blood treatment. . .imagine my surprise. . .

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:37 AM
Cincy and Xavier. Two thug outfits in top seeds. Mackís a rat race punk. Remember the monkey comment.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:38 AM
Kansas and Duke as 2s? The committee hasn’t learned a thing.

Seth almost had a cow when Koach wasn’t top line.

Zag_Dad
02-11-2018, 08:39 AM
Kansas & Duke get the blue blood treatment. . .imagine my surprise. . .

Michigan State got screwed. Scandal a factor?

23dpg
02-11-2018, 08:39 AM
This actually pisses me off. Neither Kansas nor Duke are great this year. Both have struggled winning games vs lower competition.
Metrics are still not being used properly.
Itís all about the RPI. Not directly but indirectly. How did you do vs the top 50(RPI)? How did you do on the road against a good team (high RPI rating)

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:40 AM
Michigan State got screwed. Scandal a factor?

Izzy’s crocodile tears notwithstanding. Boo hoo.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 08:41 AM
Izzy’s crocodile tears notwithstanding. Boo hoo.

He’s just focused on “the survivors”.

Not a dig at the victims, moreso how Izzo uses the phrase.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:42 AM
Sheet.

Zag_Dad
02-11-2018, 08:42 AM
Well there you go ... Zona over Zags. Bull####

RenoZag
02-11-2018, 08:42 AM
Hosed ? If Zags win out, they should make the top 16. . .shows that the weekly polls are meaningless in projecting the brackets. Four weeks to go. Zags will have to prove they belong. . .

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:42 AM
He’s just focused on “the survivors”.

Not a dig at the victims, moreso how Izzo uses the phrase.

PR strategy.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 08:42 AM
Not in. No shock.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 08:43 AM
Of the 4 seeds, only Ohio State is playing good ball right now. And we killed them.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:44 AM
CBS needs Trae soooo bad it hurts. As usual, the fix is in. Filthy sport really.

thickman1
02-11-2018, 08:47 AM
CBS needs Trae soooo bad it hurts. As usual, the fix is in. Filthy sport really.

+1. Sooners are in free fall...no matter - slot them on the 4-line.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 08:47 AM
CBS needs Trae soooo bad it hurts. As usual, the fix is in. Filthy sport really.

You’re being too negat..........no wait, you’re absolutely right.
Why do they still use university administrators to do this? (Rhetorical question)

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:49 AM
You’re being too negat..........no wait, you’re absolutely right.
Why do they still use university administrators to do this? (Rhetorical question)

Easier to pay off.

kitzbuel
02-11-2018, 08:50 AM
You’re being too negat..........no wait, you’re absolutely right.
Why do they still use university administrators to do this? (Rhetorical question)

The optics aren’t as bad as using CBS and NCAA execs.

Zags_Fanatic
02-11-2018, 08:51 AM
Win out and get the #3 seed. Avoid the 4-5 game and play in Boise. If they play with the intensity they had last night in all remaining games this is the future for this team.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:52 AM
The optics aren’t as bad as using CBS and NCAA execs.

There you go. The Creighton AD was pretty wobbly. Kinda like he just stole a loaf of bread.

IowaSERE
02-11-2018, 08:53 AM
I've said all along that our seed will equal our loss total. Win out and we're a 4.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:54 AM
Win out and get the #3 seed. Avoid the 4-5 game and play in Boise. If they play with the intensity they had last night in all remaining games this is the future for this team.

Don’t see that happening even with a win out. Upcoming games will drop RPI even more.

DixieZag
02-11-2018, 08:54 AM
My surprise indicates just how naive I remain. I am actually shocked.

Other than big school, big city biases, the only other explanation is over-reliance on a rating system so outdated that everyone felt compelled to come up with their own, and on literally all of those, we're considered more than deserving.

Well, perhaps this can turn into a positive.

I gotta feel like our guys, having just held a legit All-American to 4 pts and beating the daisies out of a decent team in their own place have to reel pretty offended. Any self-satisfaction or sense of entitlement that could've been there now gone.

Just anger left. Actually might work well headed into that last weekend and Vegas.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 08:55 AM
Well coached by Cuonzo Martin? Mumbles is in tourney form.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 08:57 AM
FYI, Palm actually has the Zags as a 3 seed on his bracket this morning. The 5 is just filling up the post committee field.

thickman1
02-11-2018, 08:58 AM
So frustrating...the WCC is such a weight dragging GU down into the abyss.

Sarenyon
02-11-2018, 09:02 AM
So frustrating...the WCC is such a weight dragging GU down into the abyss.

Well that, and the 3 - 300+ RPI filler teams scheduled in the non-con. Would rather we play someone in the higher 200's or low 100's, but that is hard to predict as we fill out our schedule and guarantee games.

But RPI is such a crap metric anyway... so there you go.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 09:03 AM
This actually pisses me off. Neither Kansas nor Duke are great this year. Both have struggled winning games vs lower competition.
Metrics are still not being used properly.
Itís all about the RPI. Not directly but indirectly. How did you do vs the top 50(RPI)? How did you do on the road against a good team (high RPI rating)

One more thought on this. Since itís obvious the committtee just canít quit the RPI, Gonzaga needs to replace their 300+ RPI patsies with 200+ patsies. Yes, that will make a huge difference in their stupid RPI ranking.

KStyles
02-11-2018, 09:03 AM
Seems like the show served its purpose.

Got people talking.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 09:07 AM
Seems like the show served its purpose.

Got people talking.

Save for the fact that last year this krap was 15/16ths correct, so the die is nearly cast.

GonzagasaurusFlex
02-11-2018, 09:08 AM
Players and staff surely notice this preliminary seeding job despite necessary “next game our only focus” approach.

Hoping this lights a fire to not only win out one game at a time but do so in merciless blowout fashion...the way blowouts in college football seem to serve to strengthen a team’s rep & ranking.

Let’s go Zags!! Build on your hard earned momentum and blow the doors off the WCC the rest of the way.

jpn17
02-11-2018, 09:09 AM
Hahaha, now that I've stopped laughing what a joke of a bracket. No surprise, the committee gets more and more inept every year.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 09:10 AM
Hahaha, now that I've stopped laughing what a joke of a bracket. No surprise, the committee gets more and more inept every year.

You didn’t like the aluminum siding guy from Creighton?

gonstu
02-11-2018, 09:15 AM
You didn’t like the aluminum siding guy from Creighton?

haha - jazz you have multiple good ones already this morning! keep'em coming! but get outside today - possibly some rain in the forecast for this week.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 09:17 AM
haha - jazz you have multiple good ones already this morning! keep'em coming! but get outside today - possibly some rain in the forecast for this week.

Just walked the beach. Gorgeous today as you know. Yes, rain. That’s ok, I got work to do. Thanks for the tip, GS.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 09:19 AM
Had the Zags finished 8th place in an 8 team tournament, not beaten any teams in the current top 25, and subsequently lost to very average teams like UCLA, Colorado, and Washington, would they be in the protected bracket like Arizona or completely out of the field?

Seriously, how did they reveal this thing without sinister laughing?

Reborn
02-11-2018, 09:21 AM
What makes me mad is that all we have heard lately is the RPi IS OUTDATED and that Kempom and Sagarin rating systems are going to have more of an affect on the seedings. BS. RPI is still the #1 ranking system by far, in the eyes of the Selection Committee. One thing that has not been mentioned is that St Mary's got the #5 seed in the West, and Zags travel to the South Region. And St Mary's has a higher RPI ranking than GU. I'd have to say that most of the committee members did not watch Gonzaga destroy St Mary's last night, and many probably had their selection picked out before last nights game which was aired between 10 pm and midnight back East. These kinds of people go to bed at 9 pm.

Making it to the Final Four last year and playing in the championship game certainly has not brought Gonzaga any more respect by Selection Committees. Good to hear that Jerry Palm has the Zags as a #3 Seed though. That's really where they belong. But Michigan St got just as screwed as the Zags did; so we're in good company. Hope this inspires the Zags to play really hard the rest of the year, and I believe it will. We need to get that #3 Seed out West. Finally, no one can convince me that Arizona deserves to be seeded above our Zags.

Go Zags!!!

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 09:24 AM
What makes me mad is that all we have heard lately is the RPi IS OUTDATED and that Kempom and Sagarin rating systems are going to have more of an affect on the seedings. BS. RPI is still the #1 ranking system by far, in the eyes of the Selection Committee. One thing that has not been mentioned is that St Mary's got the #5 seed in the West, and Zags travel to the South Region. And St Mary's has a higher RPI ranking than GU. I'd have to say that most of the committee members did not watch Gonzaga destroy St Mary's last night, and many probably had their selection picked out before last nights game which was aired between 10 pm and midnight back East. These kinds of people go to bed at 9 pm.

Making it to the Final Four last year and playing in the championship game certainly has not brought Gonzaga any more respect by Selection Committees. Good to hear that Jerry Palm has the Zags as a #3 Seed though. That's really where they belong. But Michigan St got just as screwed as the Zags did; so we're in good company. Hope this inspires the Zags to play really hard the rest of the year, and I believe it will. We need to get that #3 Seed out West. Finally, no one can convince me that Arizona deserves to be seeded above our Zags.

Go Zags!!!


Ok, but Palm did concede UOFA, UOFA, was among the 3 most talented teams in the country. And that doesnít include Seannieís sweating.

DixieZag
02-11-2018, 09:25 AM
Had the Zags finished 8th place in an 8 team tournament, not beaten any teams in the current top 25, and subsequently lost to very average teams like UCLA, Colorado, and Washington, would they be in the protected bracket like Arizona or completely out of the field?

Seriously, how did they reveal this thing without sinister laughing?

Excellent point and way to frame it.

ZagsObserver
02-11-2018, 09:29 AM
I’ve gotta think the brackets were set before yesterday. Oklahoma over GU is a joke, btw.

RenoZag
02-11-2018, 09:29 AM
Bilas' Twitter feed re: the Bracket Preview:


A few of the decisions in the bracket preview Top 16 seeds are laughable. I hope this was just to create controversy and discussion. Otherwise, the Committee is wasting its time.


The Committee’s quadrant system is just more shaky data to organize information for less discerning minds. All of the quad data is based upon RPI. Garbage in, garbage out.

Ekrub
02-11-2018, 09:30 AM
Scheduling. I haven't looked, but we had to have played multiple 300+ rpi teams at home this year. We would beat those in the 200 to 300 range by just as wide a margin, need to fill in those teams instead, if possible. Think those little sisters of the poor are dragging down our quality wins.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 09:31 AM
I’ve gotta think the brackets were set before yesterday. Oklahoma over GU is a joke, btw.

CBS has Trae’s highlight reel already to go. Every fan loves a talented, small guy.

Ekrub
02-11-2018, 09:32 AM
Bilas' Twitter feed re: the Bracket Preview:

Yup. Time to start gaming the system. See what the mountain west did a few years ago. Rpi is trash but being that it's still a metric used, think few needs to start scheduling for it.

ZagsObserver
02-11-2018, 09:38 AM
Yup. Time to start gaming the system. See what the mountain west did a few years ago. Rpi is trash but being that it's still a metric used, think few needs to start scheduling for it.

Randy Bennett plays a crap schedule, but still refrains from playing the 300+ rpi killers. Gotta do the same,only with tough schools intermixed

Ekrub
02-11-2018, 09:54 AM
https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GONZAG/ARIZ

GU and AZ rpi comparison. Note the bottom. A lot of that is self inflicted.

Ekrub
02-11-2018, 09:58 AM
Randy Bennett plays a crap schedule, but still refrains from playing the 300+ rpi killers. Gotta do the same,only with tough schools intermixed

Yup. See here:

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GONZAG/MARYCA

Smc scheduled 2 200+ rpi teams vs the zags 5

raise the zag
02-11-2018, 10:00 AM
Oklahoma over GU is a joke, btw.

Oklahoma is 2-6 in their last 8 games.

can't make this stuff up.

What is WRONG with this Committee? They can't let go of RPI.

So sloppy, archaic, and inaccurate.

Sad day for College Hoops, and NCAA Tournament teams this season. So many deserving teams ranked by Pomeroy, Sagarin, even BPI will be either left out or vastly underseeded, in turn, hurting the worthy teams seeded high as well.

A joke, as Bilas said.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 10:01 AM
Zags need to adapt to a rigid system. It should be the system that adapts but I’ve given up on that.
As noted many times in this thread, just exchange the 300+ RPI(:vomit-smiley-007:) teams with those ranked from 175 to 225ish.

raise the zag
02-11-2018, 10:03 AM
Why is the Committee comprised of College AD's anyway?

Talk about bias, conference politics, and slanted perceptions/views.

I'm not saying I like how the College FB Playoff Committee is formed either, but at least least its less bias potential overall.

Honestly, several of these independent online "bracketologists", who comprise the matrix, would be WAYYYY better than these yahoo's.

Dumb system, imho

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 10:03 AM
Yup. See here:

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GONZAG/MARYCA

Smc scheduled 2 200+ rpi teams vs the zags 5

But why is that? Don’t let GU off the hook.

GeorgiaZagFan
02-11-2018, 10:07 AM
Zags need to adapt to a rigid system. It should be the system that adapts but I’ve given up on that.
As noted many times in this thread, just exchange the 300+ RPI(:vomit-smiley-007:) teams with those ranked from 175 to 225ish.

...the one thing I know that keeps me calm is this...the Zags have equaled or exceeded their seeding in 8 of the last 9 NCAA tournaments!!! The only thing that worries me is the inconsistent guard play...if that group plays like they did yesterday, there is nobody Gonzaga can't beat!!

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 10:09 AM
Saint Joe Lunardi hasn’t refreshed his bracket since February 8th. What, too busy sampling some rigatoni.

Ekrub
02-11-2018, 10:18 AM
But why is that? Don’t let GU off the hook.

I'm not, see my comments above that (re: this is self inflicted) . Time to game the system a bit. Play those 150-200 rpi teams in lieu of the Howard states and Incarnate words. Take away all Ammo from the committee.

Reborn
02-11-2018, 11:00 AM
upon further thinking about all this, I think the Committee did the Zags a favor. Afterall, this isn't the final selection.

Go Zags!!!

Bogozags
02-11-2018, 11:09 AM
IF GU wins out (thru the WCC Tournament) they will be a 4 seed.

We know about the Selection Committee's bias but even they won't be able to protect OU, Tennessee, OSU, AZ, Clemson or UNC, who IMO could have at least one to three more losses before Selection Sunday.

RenoZag
02-11-2018, 11:10 AM
From the NCAA web site: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-02-11/college-basketball-top-16-reveal-what-sundays-rankings-mean?utm_content=buffercb278&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


Two notable teams were left off of Sunday’s rankings: Gonzaga and Rhode Island. The Bulldogs are 23-4 with wins over Ohio State, Creighton and Saint Mary’s. The Rams are 20-3 with victories over Seton Hall and Providence. . .If the Rams don’t lose between now and Selection Sunday, attrition among current top-16 teams could vault them onto the 3 or 4-line. But for now, the wins are the wins, and Rhode Island doesn’t have the caliber of victories the teams ahead of it do.

That’s why the Gonzaga omission is a little more surprising. Ohio State, Creighton and St. Mary’s are all better wins than anything Rhode Island has done, and on a neutral floor, you’d take the Bulldogs over a few of these top 16 teams. The Zags have played St. Mary’s twice, so their next opportunity for a signature win would likely come at the WCC tournament final.

Hoopaholic
02-11-2018, 11:26 AM
From the NCAA web site: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-02-11/college-basketball-top-16-reveal-what-sundays-rankings-mean?utm_content=buffercb278&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Utterly amazing. So he can talk about win against Texas for North Carolina but no mention on our win

This is east coast bias tired of it

DixieZag
02-11-2018, 11:40 AM
IF GU wins out (thru the WCC Tournament) they will be a 4 seed.

We know about the Selection Committee's bias but even they won't be able to protect OU, Tennessee, OSU, AZ, Clemson or UNC, who IMO could have at least one to three more losses before Selection Sunday.

The frustrating part for me is, seeing that analysis, we could win out and have no hope at all for a 3 seed.

We could theoretically be ranked 7th, maybe 6th if we win out, be high in those other metrics, and not have a shot at a 3? That's kind of frustrating.

NEC26
02-11-2018, 11:58 AM
I am surprised by the high rankings for Duke and Oklahoma but I suppose I shouldn't be.

tinfoilzag
02-11-2018, 12:29 PM
Everyone knows this is about money, right?

Gonzdb8
02-11-2018, 12:29 PM
committee earlier in the season: hey, we're gonna deemphasize our reliance on RPI and instead incorporate a wide variety of credible metrics to make these decisions going forward.
committee now: uhmmm, about that. relying on those other metrics don't really let us put the teams we want at the top so we're going back to RPI. k. thanks.

one step forward followed by two steps back. any credibility the ncaa selection committee had left with me has evaporated. bilas is on point...this is a joke.

sittingon50
02-11-2018, 12:33 PM
Quite surprised this Gold Star panel omitted Wisconsin.

TexasZagFan
02-11-2018, 12:41 PM
Everyone knows this is about money, right?

Bodes very ill for mid majors hoping for an at-large bid. The Committee is telegraphing to the world this year’s tournament will set record lows for mid major at large teams.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 12:43 PM
Quite surprised this Gold Star panel omitted Wisconsin.

Tippin my 40 for Wiscy. They had a great run.

At the dawn of the new millennium, if you asked people to pick 5 teams that would make the NCAA tournament every year for the next generation (18-20 years) I bet it would have gone something like this:

Duke? 99% would have said yes
Kansas? 95%
MSU? 40%
Wisconsin? 3%
Gonzaga? 0.00267%

Hats off to the Badgers for what they accomplished.

jazzdelmar
02-11-2018, 12:47 PM
Bodes very ill for mid majors hoping for an at-large bid. The Committee is telegraphing to the world this yearís tournament will set record lows for mid major at large teams.

I read to expect only 2 at large small frys in the Dance this yr. One from WCC of c.

zagamatic
02-11-2018, 12:52 PM
Really? People on here are still surprised by the ncaa bias after something as glaring as the refs missing an incredibly easy out of bounds call during REPLAY of the national championship game last year? Color me not surprised.

surfmonkey89
02-11-2018, 01:21 PM
IMO, the reality is that the committee puts teams mostly wherever they want, and use RPI and other stats to obfuscate their decisions to the public. They take advantage of the fact that "it's an inexact science" to do exactly what they want.

The only way the Gonzagas of the world can break through is to have an insane W-L record, ie three losses max. If Xavier loses...break out the parachutes.

Tmac5360
02-11-2018, 01:41 PM
Really? People on here are still surprised by the ncaa bias after something as glaring as the refs missing an incredibly easy out of bounds call during REPLAY of the national championship game last year? Color me not surprised.

Careful about blaming refs. If it weren’t for a totally blown goaltend, the Zags could have lost in 2nd round.

OntZags
02-11-2018, 01:53 PM
I read to expect only 2 at large small frys in the Dance this yr. One from WCC of c.

Looking at the teamsheets the only small frys getting in right now are Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Nevada & St.Mary's.

Middle Tennessee would be bubble but it feels like they have to win their conference tourney.

Boise St., New Mexico St. & St. Bonaventure are next tier bubbles that maybe if they win out and make their conference finals they could sneak in but I'm not optimistic.

If URI, Nevada & GU/SMC win their tourneys, it could easily 1 at large tbh. 3, mayyybbe 4, would be max.

TexasZagFan
02-11-2018, 02:38 PM
Looking at the teamsheets the only small frys getting in right now are Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Nevada & St.Mary's.

Middle Tennessee would be bubble but it feels like they have to win their conference tourney.

Boise St., New Mexico St. & St. Bonaventure are next tier bubbles that maybe if they win out and make their conference finals they could sneak in but I'm not optimistic.

If URI, Nevada & GU/SMC win their tourneys, it could easily 1 at large tbh. 3, mayyybbe 4, would be max.

That's just the way the power conferences want it. Networks will get a couple of Cinderellas for the first weekend, everyone that matters will be satisfied.

willandi
02-11-2018, 02:56 PM
Careful about blaming refs. If it weren’t for a totally blown goaltend, the Zags could have lost in 2nd round.

I don't see it that way. Zags outplayed them after that, so the one bad call didn't change the outcome.

Now the refs in the Championship game...those calls sure may have changed the winner.

Zags11
02-11-2018, 04:16 PM
Zags aren't top 16? Meh.

Zagger
02-11-2018, 04:47 PM
I feel the Zags have been dissed in these 16 choices. However, that's going to be a never ending story until a few more West coast state teams beat the stuffing out of the East side teams. The Zags are helping to pave the way as best they can. We just need to see some past power houses (and newbs) join in the fray. Stanford and UCLA need to step it up. I admire what SMC has accomplished but they've got some better scheduling to do. Man do I wish Bennett had stuck around at Wazzu! Even UNLV seems to have greatly distanced itself from the limelight. Come on Western teams - get yer butts in gear! (Yeah I know, I'm forgetting Arizona .... good for them that they're still hanging in there - although I'm personally not too fond of Arizona teams). End of rant :)

zag67
02-11-2018, 05:35 PM
I do not think that we were dissed that much. I think that if we win our last 4 games, then we will be in the top 16. This was really the first super game that we have played in the last month. We keep winning, but were shooting poorly. I am not even sure that they would deserve being in the top 16. Last night we shot well, rebounded both ends, moved the ball from player to player and played GREAT defense. If we play like this in our last 4 games of the season, then we will end up a 4 or 3 seed. But then we need to win our tournament by completely destroying our opponents. We do this and then I think we have a shot as a 2 or 3 seed. If we lose a game then I am not sure we would deserve a top 16 seed. That would allow them to decide.

SunDevilGolfZag
02-11-2018, 06:05 PM
I read to expect only 2 at large small frys in the Dance this yr. One from WCC of c.

Yeah. Someone gets hosed at Big 5 expense if the WCC tourney champ isn't GU or SMC

ZagsObserver
02-11-2018, 06:13 PM
Careful about blaming refs. If it weren’t for a totally blown goaltend, the Zags could have lost in 2nd round.

Well, yes, but did see the officiating before that missed call?

adoptedzag
02-11-2018, 07:52 PM
Careful about blaming refs. If it weren’t for a totally blown goaltend, the Zags could have lost in 2nd round.

You're bonkers. If a made 2 in a 5 pt game means we would have lost... I don't even know.

23dpg
02-11-2018, 08:02 PM
I highly recommend listenening to the cbs sports podcast that was dropped today. Gary Parrish preaches the truth. Talks about how coach s have told him how they manipulate the rpi and strength of schedule. Basically what a lot of us stated today. Schedule teams that are worse than you by a fair margin but not in th terrible zone, and don’t schedule teams that are way better than you.

https://www.cbssports.com/topic/2024563/eye-on-basketball-podcast

CDC84
02-11-2018, 09:10 PM
One major college basketball writer told me that it was an absolute joke that Gonzaga wasn't included in this group....he pointed to Oklahoma as a team that should've been excluded. Gonzaga is 6-2 vs. the RPI top 50 (2-1 vs. the top 25), #7 at kenpom.com, and it one of only 3 teams in the land to have offensive and defensive efficiency rankings in the top 20. It was almost as if they didn't even include the St. Mary's blow out last night.

Or the fact that GU beat Ohio States by 27: the single best individual team performance of the season possibly.

CDC84
02-11-2018, 09:14 PM
The way this season has gone, at least 8 teams of the NCAA's top 16 will lose this week. Most of them to inferior teams. The Zags just need to keep winning.

amaronizag
02-11-2018, 09:30 PM
I have been ranting against rpi for years and was very happy to learn that it would only be a small part (1/6) of the weight in the metric used by the committee this year. What happened? GU was supposed to fare far better with the new system. I refuse to believe this mock bracket is the result of the new system. Can anyone elaborate?

23dpg
02-11-2018, 09:50 PM
I have been ranting against rpi for years and was very happy to learn that it would only be a small part (1/6) of the weight in the metric used by the committee this year. What happened? GU was supposed to fare far better with the new system. I refuse to believe this mock bracket is the result of the new system. Can anyone elaborate?

The RPI is omnipresent in everything the committee does. The quadrants are full of RPI bs.

soccerdud
02-11-2018, 10:01 PM
The way this season has gone, at least 8 teams of the NCAA's top 16 will lose this week. Most of them to inferior teams. The Zags just need to keep winning.

this post fails to mention that we are one of only 3 teams in the land to have offensive and defensive efficiency rankings in the top 20. oversight? intentional omission? just tired of typing it? what's _really_ going on here, CDC? :p

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2018, 10:08 PM
What metric did they use? If it was RPI Rhode Island has a bigger beef than us.

UberZagFan
02-11-2018, 10:48 PM
One major college basketball writer told me that it was an absolute joke that Gonzaga wasn't included in this group....he pointed to Oklahoma as a team that should've been excluded. Gonzaga is 6-2 vs. the RPI top 50 (2-1 vs. the top 25), #7 at kenpom.com, and it one of only 3 teams in the land to have offensive and defensive efficiency rankings in the top 20. It was almost as if they didn't even include the St. Mary's blow out last night.

Or the fact that GU beat Ohio States by 27: the single best individual team performance of the season possibly.

That OSU win was a long time ago. Great wins in November are forgotten. Bad losses (SDSU?-sorta bad) linger. But this LGU team shouldn't be anything higher than a 4 at best. IF they win out, then a 4 is the ceiling. Seeing them on a 5 or 6 line will not be surprising.

UberZagFan
02-11-2018, 10:59 PM
But I do not ever remember our tournament seed being so out of whack with our AP ranking. Maybe at most one seed lower than and at most maybe 2 seeds lower (and I do not recall a time that we were that much lower).


See Year 2002!!! Doubt that will ever be matched.

wiszag
02-12-2018, 03:24 AM
Quite surprised this Gold Star panel omitted Wisconsin.

Wisconsin will see their 19 year run of NCAA tournaments end unless they get multiple miracles in the conference tournament.

ZagMan in Philly
02-12-2018, 03:26 AM
The best test is the Eye Test. My Eye Test says Zags are peaking, and they are one of the best 16th teams. I say they are 10th best.
Basically, the committee wants the Zags to win out right, don't leave it up to them to decide our seed. That is doom for sure.

jazzdelmar
02-12-2018, 03:30 AM
See Year 2002!!! Doubt that will ever be matched.

I can still see Few's face. He prob still has PTSD from that thunderous snub.

CarolinaZagFan
02-12-2018, 03:31 AM
Careful about blaming refs. If it werenít for a totally blown goaltend, the Zags could have lost in 2nd round.

Is that you crying Northwestern kid?

jazzdelmar
02-12-2018, 03:37 AM
Is that you crying Northwestern kid?

In the intro yesterday to the farcical seeding show of course they showed a disproportionate number of images from the Northwestern "run" and Elaine Benes made an appearance as well. Thank god that fire is out.......BTW, not nearly enough of GU's run. If it were another P5 against the Tarcheaters trust me there would have been a lot more.

509er
02-12-2018, 05:20 AM
One major college basketball writer told me that it was an absolute joke that Gonzaga wasn't included in this group....he pointed to Oklahoma as a team that should've been excluded. Gonzaga is 6-2 vs. the RPI top 50 (2-1 vs. the top 25), #7 at kenpom.com, and it one of only 3 teams in the land to have offensive and defensive efficiency rankings in the top 20. It was almost as if they didn't even include the St. Mary's blow out last night.

Or the fact that GU beat Ohio States by 27: the single best individual team performance of the season possibly.

GU is an outlier with their WCC schedule and it is always going to hurt them unless the rest of the WCC steps up some day. They really need to ditch the cupcake home games with the Incarnate Worlds of college basketball and either schedule good home and homes or bring in schools like Idaho for home games only.

titopoet
02-12-2018, 07:31 AM
My hope is not about seeding but placing. I rather be a 4 or 5 seed in the West than a 3 seed in the East. My dream match up would be a 4 seed in the West with Xavier or Auburn (The Great Pretenders) as the 1 seed.

23dpg
02-12-2018, 07:51 AM
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/college-basketball-top-16-reveal-ncaa-selection-committee-preview-march-madness-bracket-news-analysis/oec19hwacx5e1cj8s2u5eoyu8

4. Gonzaga can’t get no respect. The Zags played in last season’s NCAA Championship game. They almost won it. They’ve got a 5-3 record against Q-1 opponents, their worst loss is a road game against No. 129 San Diego State that falls into Q-2 – and they’re excluded because the bottom of their league isn’t any good? This doesn’t make sense. The predictive metrics all place Gonzaga among the top dozen teams in Division I. This shouldn’t be about whether Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine have bad teams.


10. The RPI still rules the process. The quadrant system takes into account the greater difficulty of winning away from home, but it still uses the unpopular Ratings Percentage Index as the standard by which the teams are ranked. The NCAA is hoping to conceive a new metric to replace the RPI, but it hasn’t yet come up with something it views as more workable. It turned out that 14 of the top 16 teams in this week’s RPI standings were represented in these seeds.

sittingon50
02-14-2018, 12:08 PM
An article from ESPN that I don't recall seeing:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22371587/ncaa-men-basketball-selection-committee-apply-metrics-correctly