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View Full Version : GU vs St. Mary's - Predictions/What you hope to see



LongIslandZagFan
02-08-2018, 09:23 PM
Short window...

What are you hoping to see? Expectations for the game? Predictions?

Have at it boys and girls!

Zags11
02-08-2018, 09:25 PM
Smc 81

Zags 74.

Wcc title is smc but zags win wcc tourny.

Outraged
02-08-2018, 09:26 PM
A quiet crowd. A broken chair. An empty court. No handshake.

ZagsGoZags
02-08-2018, 10:14 PM
moraga 77
spokane 79

CdAZagFan
02-08-2018, 10:20 PM
I worry about the outside shooting - could be rough and I hope the Zags prove me wrong and shoot the lights out.

SMC - 77
GU - 70

adoptedzag
02-08-2018, 10:46 PM
I just hope we don't get blown out.

sheps001
02-08-2018, 11:26 PM
Agreed. What ever happened to Jacob Larsen?? Saw him in the Garden v Nova and he made a big difference when in there. Seems to have disappeared. Why?? Why has Perkins 3pt shooting disappeared??? Why has our 3pt defense disappeared??? Yet we do grind it out. If we don't change things fast, SMC will lay it on us just like Nova and that one hurt to watch (and it was expensive too!). Right now we make the Tourney and then die. Very sad.

Skimhvn
02-09-2018, 12:14 AM
Only Larsen can defend Landale well. Why isn't he used...

jpn17
02-09-2018, 02:37 AM
I just want to see a win. After the loss to the Gaels several weeks ago I was confident the Zags would go into Moraga and win when it came time for the rematch. After the last few weeks I am not so sure. Saint Mary's is playing very well, Gonzaga not so much. Here's hoping it all comes together for a big win in the bay.

bigblahla
02-09-2018, 03:57 AM
Can't pick Gollum's Squad...

Zags 78-76

Go!! Zags!!!

Zaga
02-09-2018, 04:43 AM
72-69 Gonzaga

RenoZag
02-09-2018, 05:06 AM
Gaels - 81
Zags - 66

Landale gets his, Ford gets his. Hermanson had 16 in the Spokane win. . .Zags offensive struggles may continue if the Pacific contest is any indication. If JWIII and Tillie get in early foul trouble, the Gales could have a double digit lead at half-time.

willandi
02-09-2018, 05:48 AM
75-72 Zags

raise the zag
02-09-2018, 06:04 AM
Can't ask J3 to defend Landale, then score a double double too. JIII had nothing left last game vs SMC and it killed us down the stretch.

Foul trouble and/or fatigue will set in.

We have no one to begin to stop him, or even slow him down.

Doubles don't work since St Mary's has 3 of the very best 3pt shooters in the Nation -- Naar, Ford, and Hermanson. Krebs can hit too. They are Top-5 in nation for 3pt % as a team.

I would say "unleash Larsen" for 5 fouls in 5 mins if that's what it takes to give J3 a blow. Remember what BYU used to do with Olynyk and Karno? But that's not gonna happen.

Zags will need to shoot 50+% from 3pt, and all guys making shots, because we'll be trading buckets all night with SMC. Honestly, we can't defend them this season, especially this season since we're one of the worst 3pt defenses in College Hoops.

We have a shot, yet with Landale scoring b/w 25-35 pts, SMC hitting their "average" from 3pt (43%!), we'll need to have a record night from 3pt to win....and it just so happens we are in a 3pt funk.

Realistically, St Mary's by 10-12 pts in Moraga.

stevet75
02-09-2018, 06:12 AM
Zags 74 smc 71 on a 3 pointer at the buzzer

thespywhozaggedme
02-09-2018, 06:14 AM
81-76 SMC

caldwellzag
02-09-2018, 06:23 AM
78-77 Zags

gozagswoohoo
02-09-2018, 06:30 AM
Zags by 4

raise the zag
02-09-2018, 06:40 AM
I'd like to see our Seniors have great games vs gaels. Find a way to rest J3 vs Landale, so we'll have him in final 5 mins. JIII has been our MOST CLUTCH player in tight games, yet he was so fatigued last game, he disappeared vs SMC. As said above, even if we use Larsen for 5 fouls in 5 mins, just need J3 when it matters most.

Silas Melson is 1-13 FG, 1-6 3pt, 3 TO's to 3 asts, 6 fouls, only 2 rebs in last 2 games combined.

Needs to find a groove again, especially since he's averaged the 2nd most minutes on our team in that span!

bballbeachbum
02-09-2018, 06:45 AM
I'd like to see our Seniors have great games vs gaels. Find a way to rest J3 vs Landale, so we'll have him in final 5 mins. JIII has been our MOST CLUTCH player in tight games, yet he was so fatigued last game, he disappeared vs SMC. As said above, even if we use Larsen for 5 fouls in 5 mins, just need J3 when it matters most.

Silas Melson is 1-13 FG, 1-6 3pt, 3 TO's to 3 asts, 6 fouls, only 2 rebs in last 2 games combined.

Needs to find a groove again, especially since he's averaged the 2nd most minutes on our team in that span!

good posts, I'm with you on all of your points here and above, and think 3 point shooting from the Zags is needed to pull this one off, some clutch shooting

MontanaCoyote
02-09-2018, 07:02 AM
It's not what we "hope to see" this game, it's what we've Got To See!

1. Tie A. Defense! SMC #3 Kenpom AdjO. Got to limit Landale, play super intense D. B. Take care of the ball, absolute minimal turnovers.

2. Smart game from Perks. Good shots, be more efficient in the paint.

3. Good to great shooting night, esp. 3's.

That would do it. Here's "hoping."

zagdontzig
02-09-2018, 07:11 AM
There's a sinister part of me that wants to lose, just so we can see the look on Bennett's face when he can't close out the conference tournament. Happened in 2015 and it was hilarious.

ZagzKrak
02-09-2018, 07:12 AM
Zags 78
SMC 71

Hoopaholic
02-09-2018, 07:13 AM
Zags 74
Gaels 68

amaronizag
02-09-2018, 08:09 AM
Can't stop Jock. Period. He'll score in the 20's so we need to forget help D on him and focus on the rest of the team with smother D to stop the 3's. Last game at GU they shot 61.5% on 3's compared to GU @ 27.3%. THAT won't happen again, which will keep us in the game. We stayed in the game because we hit free throws (SMU didn't) and GU didn't turn the ball over (5 To's) AND we shut down Naar. They beat us by 1 on the boards. IF we keep TO's low, rebound better, shoot 3's better, and defend the 3 better, we can win. Lots of IF's, but we're due to start hitting 3's again. If we don't we get wiped. I like that we got up 61 shots (8 more than SMC). Keep shooting and running. Fast pace wins. We can't count on Rui for 20+ again so Tillie, Melson, Josh, and J3 need to pick up some slack. We need some points from Kispert. 6 in double figures will get the job done. We don't have to play great, all we need is an average performance from 6 guys.
GU rises to the occasion 80--72 SMC

Hoopaholic
02-09-2018, 08:11 AM
Can't stop Jock. Period. He'll score in the 20's so we need to forget help D on him and focus on the rest of the team with smother D to stop the 3's. Last game at GU they shot 61.5% on 3's compared to GU @ 27.3%. THAT won't happen again, which will keep us in the game. We stayed in the game because we hit free throws (SMU didn't) and GU didn't turn the ball over (5 To's) AND we shut down Naar. They beat us by 1 on the boards. IF we keep TO's low, rebound better, shoot 3's better, and defend the 3 better, we can win. Lots of IF's, but we're due to start hitting 3's again. If we don't we get wiped. I like that we got up 61 shots (8 more than SMC). Keep shooting and running. Fast pace wins. We can't count on Rui for 20+ again so Tillie, Melson, Josh, and J3 need to pick up some slack. We need some points from Kispert. 6 in double figures will get the job done. We don't have to play great, all we need is an average performance from 6 guys.
GU rises to the occasion 80--72 SMC
This is how I see it

strikenowhere
02-09-2018, 08:22 AM
76-62 Gaels

Coach Crazy
02-09-2018, 08:22 AM
Jock scoring isn't what kills you. Jock being the anchor for offensive continuity is much more the concern. You need very aggressive M2M, this game. Make them move hard and quick, all night. Or man Jock, play a rover to the weak side, and play hard D on the perimeter with your remaining 3, when the ball dumps in to him.

Silas can handle Naar. and we know they struggle with defending athleticism. My post about dribble-drive penetration still rings true. Gotta make that stuff happen. And perhaps this is the game you give JJ some run on the defensive end. If the offense is lacking some punch, then you need an extra helping of D to make things work. Would like to know why Larsen isn't playing, and perhaps it's a Coach Few doghouse because of practice results situation.

Without Larsen we are 7 deep, and very thin on the front line. Need him to be available.

bballbeachbum
02-09-2018, 09:22 AM
question: how do we defend the SMC screen/hold and move? M2M, yes, try to stick, yes, want to stay home on shooters, yes, but it's not always there to execute; switches are forced with their action up top, happens every time we play them against all Zag best intentions.
maybe some kitchen sink approach? double the dribbler? hedge and recover? weakside rotation to help on the roll? straight up dig over the top, no help? Zags try all of this and more. Have not seen SMC enough to know how they are vs. zone but would guess tough.
blunting Bennett's screen game somehow a big key.
Thoughts?

ZagsObserver
02-09-2018, 09:25 AM
78 SMC
71 GU

Mr Vulture
02-09-2018, 09:41 AM
I going against the grain and think that Gonzaga plays one of their best games of the year. In fact, I actually think we tend to play better on the road than we do at home. I'm hoping that this matchup, Coach Few uses the height that Larson provides to wear on Landale a little bit..don't even care if he uses all five fouls. I wanted this last game and I still think its a good approach on Jock. I fully expect Landale to get his points and rebounds..I just want to make him work on both ends of the floor.

In the end, I think that St Mary's shoots a much lower percentage from three point land and Gonzaga hits at a better clip.

Zags win this game in Moraga.... 79-74

zagdontzig
02-09-2018, 10:41 AM
Sounds crazy but I think Tillie and Larson should start at the 4/5. Man Jockstrap with Larson, zone so that Tillie can sag and keep him insecure about working the post too patiently, heavy minutes for longer guys like Rui and Melson.

allnet59
02-09-2018, 12:24 PM
Bad guys 79
Good guys 73

We don't keep JL from scoring 25 and our three point defense is in the gutter and if that doesn't hurt enough their dribble penetration will be to much to handle. Gonzaga's three point shooting slump and the fact our guards struggle to finish around the rim will rear its ugly head tomorrow. The Gaels have a great team this year and no matter how much I hope we play our best game of the year I don't see a W in the win column for the Zags..

Mr Vulture
02-09-2018, 01:19 PM
Bad guys 79
Good guys 73

We don't keep JL from scoring 25 and our three point defense is in the gutter and if that doesn't hurt enough their dribble penetration will be to much to handle. Gonzaga's three point shooting slump and the fact our guards struggle to finish around the rim will rear its ugly head tomorrow. The Gaels have a great team this year and no matter how much I hope we play our best game of the year I don't see a W in the win column for the Zags..

I think it's funny how games end up being perceived. I would argue that if we play our best game of the year we beat the Gaels by double digits. You'd think we lost to them by double digits and weren't competitive in the first matchup. In that game, Landale had his way inside..which probably happens again. However, I doubt that they shoot 57% from the floor and 61% from 3pt land again. I also doubt that we shoot 27% from 3pt land again. Even with Landale doing his thing, and with their unsustainable shooting percentages, they beat us by 3 points. If they shoot even at 45% from three point land and we hit 33% in that game, we would have beaten them. To simplify, they aren't some great juggernaut. What they are is a very good team that plays solid basketball every game. The one thing they have over us clearly is consistency.

mattydog73
02-09-2018, 01:25 PM
Zags 76
#Gaeltears 71

The Guards play like they can on Offense, this time around with Kispert actually with some PT. / Attack the rim and go at SMC bigs / Steady diet of Rui on Jock with double team show and recover. Don't let Hermanson get to the rim and don't let Krebs or Ford beat you.

BayAreaZagFan
02-09-2018, 01:34 PM
I hope to see the Zags get some inside penetration and scoring, and not getting getting out-muscled or out-hustled to the ball. I hope to see smart, limited-turnover basketball. I hope to see sad faces on the St. Mary's fans.

Good guys - 74
Moraga - 67

rennis
02-09-2018, 02:36 PM
Tough, physical defense from the Zags. Keep Hermansen out of the lane. Get Landale in foul trouble in the first half.

Zags 75
SMC 70

GU69
02-09-2018, 02:50 PM
I refuse to pick GU to lose, even if KenPom thinks they will.
GU 70
SMC 69

23dpg
02-09-2018, 06:26 PM
Zags 70
Gaels 63

Zag_Dad
02-09-2018, 06:30 PM
Zags 72
The other team 68

Reborn
02-09-2018, 06:41 PM
Zags win by 3 this time.

I'd like to see Zag guards start making threes. I'd like to see ten threes tomorrow night for the Zags. I'd like to see JW3 make one and Rui too. They can both it. Tomorrow is the night to show we CAN make threes'

I'd like to see a game where the refs call a good game and the Zags shoot more than 9 free throws for the game.

Continue to hit the offensive boards the way we did last night. That would be nice.

Go Zags!!!

zag67
02-09-2018, 06:45 PM
GU - 74 SMC - 67

LongIslandZagFan
02-09-2018, 07:12 PM
Been giving this some thought...

Zags 81
SMC 78

Psychozag
02-09-2018, 08:27 PM
GU-70
SMC- 77

GonzagasaurusFlex
02-10-2018, 01:49 AM
I’m hoping to see more 3’s, more assists and more period from our veteran guards Perkins and Melson.

Four players on this team have met or exceeded my hopes for this year: JWIII; Tillie; Rui; Norvell. Two have really disappointed, especially of late: Perkins, Melson. I respect and will always root for Josh and Silas but man does this team need them to start making shots. A quote Joel Berry shared comes to mind; when asked what he will not miss hearing Coach Roy Williams say to him after his career at UNC is over: “If you’re gonna take the shot, have the ba**s to make the shot.”

GonzagasaurusFlex
02-10-2018, 02:19 AM
question: how do we defend the SMC screen/hold and move? M2M, yes, try to stick, yes, want to stay home on shooters, yes, but it's not always there to execute; switches are forced with their action up top, happens every time we play them against all Zag best intentions.
maybe some kitchen sink approach? double the dribbler? hedge and recover? weakside rotation to help on the roll? straight up dig over the top, no help? Zags try all of this and more. Have not seen SMC enough to know how they are vs. zone but would guess tough.
blunting Bennett's screen game somehow a big key.
Thoughts?

Good question. One key is for Few to bend refs’ ears starting before tipoff and all game long to see the illegal moving picks and call them for what they are: fouls! Still have vivid recall of SMC’s game clinching bucket by Landale off a perfect lob entry pass made possible by an illegal screen that freed up the passer to see and make that pass.

Your great post mentions pretty much every defensive option Zags have. I would add more fullcourt pressing...not go for broke press that a good passing team like SMC can carve up for easy layups but one that chews up 6-8 seconds of the shot clock as Gaels navigate it into their halfcourt set. That means a little less time in halfcourt D for Zags.

kitzbuel
02-10-2018, 03:40 AM
Going with the heart.

Zags 75
Gaels 71

Zags have the horses, just gotta get them pulling in the same direction

Zagger
02-10-2018, 03:56 AM
This game's going to define the Zags for the rest of the season. Does the team step up to the occasion? I believe they will. It'll take better D and hitting both the 3 + good poise on the charity stripe.

Gonzaga 85, St Marys 75

What I want to see ....

http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZags3.png

jazzdelmar
02-10-2018, 03:58 AM
RBís fantasy season plays on. The Marians win, by 7. Moving SMC thisclose to the Top 10.

Reborn
02-10-2018, 05:15 AM
I refuse to pick GU to lose, even if KenPom thinks they will.
GU 70
SMC 69

Lucky for you. You picked the right team this time.

Bocco
02-10-2018, 07:10 AM
Zags 77
Gaels 71

All Weather Fan
02-10-2018, 07:22 AM
And order was restored throughout the WCC.........
Zags - 71
Gaels - 68

HenneZag
02-10-2018, 07:32 AM
The Gaels smell blood and know if they win this game it just about guarantees them sole possession of the conference title. They will be tough to beat on their home floor,I just don't see the same type of ball with this GU squad, not moving the ball around like we're used to seeing and clunking up shots whenever and wherever. This works a lot of the time but can be a disaster with a team like SMC that shoots at a high clip and doesn't turn the ball over all that much. I hope to see an inspired ZAGS squad tonight.

SMC 81
ZAGS 74

Zagnailler
02-10-2018, 07:55 AM
Gonzaga 77
St Maryís 74

Payback is sweet.

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-10-2018, 08:00 AM
Gonzaga 88 - SMC 76 Time to show them how its done. Perkins with game MVP

upan8th
02-10-2018, 09:07 AM
Line: SMC started -3, now down to -2 1/2 or even 2 in some shops. O/U rising from 142 1/2 to as much as 144. Something different about this season's Bulldogs. Rudderless, unfocused, players still confused about assignments & roles on offense & lacking grit on D. Why improve though, when you can sleepwalk through most WCC opponents. Not convinced there's a switch the team can turn on at this point. Their athleticism gets trumped by Gael's savvy and consistency: SMC 73 GU 72.

JPW314159
02-10-2018, 09:38 AM
Gonzaga 77
St Mary's 76

Kiddwell
02-10-2018, 09:56 AM
Kicking Buns, a rhymed couplet
<ahem>
Nothin' could be funners,
Than kickin' Saint Mary's bunners.
------
:boxing:

GU Sneakers - 72
SMC Buns - 66


:]

Bogozags
02-10-2018, 12:10 PM
I'd love to see GU win this game but as a betting man, I'd take SMC and give the 3pts...

IMO for GU to win this game, they have to shoot lights out AND keep Naar and Hermeson from scoring their averages as well as Naar out of the paint...and our front court has to play the best post "D" they've played this season...

GU 73
SMC 80

Too many if's andI don't see our back court shooting any better at SMC then they did at UOP...

GO ZAGS prove me wrong!

TravelinZag
02-10-2018, 12:32 PM
Donít recall so many on this board picking Zags to lose, but understand it. A win fueled by focus, toughness and desire would be wonderful. With hope,

Zags 71
Gaels. 67

Go Zags! Keep your destiny in your hands. Donít be the team that snaps the streak. Be proud!

spike_jr
02-10-2018, 04:14 PM
73-71 gu

Put Defensive pressure on Jock and Naar. Mix up the post defense. Don't let SMC comfortably run 29.5 seconds of offense on each possession - either let JL have his or SMC as a team shoot from 3, but don't do both (again). I want to see J3 continue to work hard as well as solid contributions from Tille and Rui. Don't settle for 3s early in the possession.

Zag_Dad
02-10-2018, 04:37 PM
Line opened at SMC -3, moved to SMC -1.5. Seems like a lot of people betting on game that haven’t seen either team play. I wan5 a GU win more tonight than I have all year long .... just not putting any money on that.

GeorgiaZagFan
02-10-2018, 05:16 PM
Hope to see Tillie, Rui, and JWIII be very agressive on the offensive end...St. Mary's can't match all 3 and the Zags need to take advantage of this...


Also, in the Zags 4 losses Melson and Perkins are:

Florida 10-32 4-15
Villanova 7-20 2-11
SDSU 4-19 2-11
SMC 4-17 3-11

a combined 25 for 88 (28%) from the field and 11 for 48 (23%) from the 3-point line...If they can correct this the Zags will win...if not it could get ugly

...and moving forward in to March...usually the teams that do well in the big dance get really good play from their guards..Gonzaga needs Melson and Perkins to step it up a notch!!!

DixieZag
02-10-2018, 06:05 PM
SMC 75
GU 71

Really hate the feeling i have. Love to be wrong.