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View Full Version : Zags must beat SMC next Saturday to have any chance of winning the WCC title



CDC84
02-03-2018, 10:21 PM
First of all, the Zags must understand that Pacific almost knocked off St. Mary's in Stockton. Don't overlook the Tigers.

If GU loses to the Gaels next Saturday, the Gaels might as well lift the trophy. Probably a 98% chance they win the regular season crown. After escaping San Diego tonight with another 3 point win, all of SMC's tough games are done besides one game vs. Gonzaga. No more BYU, no more USD and they play Pacific at home. Beating GU would put them 2 up in the loss column. And then Gonzaga still has to play at BYU and at USD. Both road games will be back to back, so GU won't have a respite in between games.

The good news is that Gonzaga controls its own destiny. If they win out, at worst they will share the league title with SMC. When it comes to the RPI tiebreaker, Gonzaga is currently at 51, SMC at 24. It is still too early to take the RPI seriously, but it looks like SMC will have that advantage, even though GU has two wins over two RPI top 25 teams in Creighton (23) and Ohio State (21), and two more top 50 RPI wins over Texas (36) and UW (43). Three of their four losses were nailbiters and were road/neutral games. As of right now, Gonzaga is #9 at kenpom.com, while SMC is at #14. Regardless of how it plays out, I have to believe this will finally be the year where the Gaels get a decent seed in the NCAA tourney.

jpn17
02-04-2018, 02:50 AM
It wouldn't be looking very good if Gonzaga loses but you never know. I remember a few years back (2011 maybe?) I want to say Gonzaga was 2 games back and it wasn't looking good. Saint Mary's had already won in Spokane, but then inexplicably lost to San Diego who was awful. Gonzaga went into Moraga later in the season and beat the Gaels and got another conference (co)championship extending the streak at the time.

But yeah I agree, it's not promising at all if they drop another one to Saint Mary's.

TravelinZag
02-04-2018, 06:52 AM
, , , it's not promising at all if they drop another one to Saint Mary's.

Its not promising if they drop one to ANYONE in conference play. Lose, and the WCC tourney is last call. Win remaining league games, and WCC tourney is about NCAA seeding.

Go Zags! Run the table. Keep hope, and streaks alive1

CDC84
02-04-2018, 07:14 PM
GU fans really, really need to be rooting for Ohio State. They still have the easiest path to winning to the Big 10 title of any Big 10 contender, but their one and only game vs. Purdue is on the road. Ohio State was no further games vs. MSU.

cggonzaga
02-04-2018, 08:13 PM
Its not promising if they drop one to ANYONE in conference play. Lose, and the WCC tourney is last call. Win remaining league games, and WCC tourney is about NCAA seeding.

Go Zags! Run the table. Keep hope, and streaks alive1

Disagree. I think we can lose to SMC and maybe one other. We’d have to make the WCC championship in that scenario but I think we’d be in.

They’re not leaving a 27-7 previous year runner up out of the tournament.

Zags11
02-04-2018, 10:14 PM
Disagree. I think we can lose to SMC and maybe one other. We’d have to make the WCC championship in that scenario but I think we’d be in.

They’re not leaving a 27-7 previous year runner up out of the tournament.

We are in march. We will win most are games and be in. Its about seeding.

strikenowhere
02-05-2018, 06:24 AM
Disagree. I think we can lose to SMC and maybe one other. We’d have to make the WCC championship in that scenario but I think we’d be in.

They’re not leaving a 27-7 previous year runner up out of the tournament.

They could lose to @ the Gaels & @ BYU and drop another dud somewhere and still make it in easily...they have 4 top-50 rpi wins right now. The remaining games only matter for seeding.

cggonzaga
02-05-2018, 08:07 AM
They could lose to @ the Gaels & @ BYU and drop another dud somewhere and still make it in easily...they have 4 top-50 rpi wins right now. The remaining games only matter for seeding.

I think 3 more loses becomes dicey but I agree.

TexasZagFan
02-05-2018, 08:32 AM
Disagree. I think we can lose to SMC and maybe one other. We’d have to make the WCC championship in that scenario but I think we’d be in.

They’re not leaving a 27-7 previous year runner up out of the tournament.

There's a first time for everything.

IMO, the turbulence in the top 25 bodes ill for non-power conferences, and that includes the WCC. There are going to be so many teams from Power conferences that will be able to point to several "quality" wins during conference play, to make their case for inclusion in the top 68.

From 1-7, the WCC has improved this year...but 8-10 have been ghastly.

This is an important week for the Zags, and I think our players will rise to the occasion.

Zags11
02-05-2018, 09:51 AM
There's a first time for everything.

IMO, the turbulence in the top 25 bodes ill for non-power conferences, and that includes the WCC. There are going to be so many teams from Power conferences that will be able to point to several "quality" wins during conference play, to make their case for inclusion in the top 68.

From 1-7, the WCC has improved this year...but 8-10 have been ghastly.

This is an important week for the Zags, and I think our players will rise to the occasion.

I fully believe If Zags win every game in remainder of regular season minus BYU and SMC they are in no matter what.

Zags will get benefit of the doubt like I believe they did with Stepp and GU which faced Arizona. Or like Arizona has in a down yr.

Also this is almost a normal zags team. We were just super spoiled last yr.

Bogozags
02-05-2018, 11:57 AM
We all want GU to win its remaining games; however, I am not confident we reach that point.

The only guaranteed wins should be LMU and Pepperdine. It is possible GU could struggle with our remaining four road games...we could lose two-three of those games. I just feel there are so many "ifs" facing us against UOP, SMC, USD and BYU...I pray the cream rises to the top!

Pacific is going to be a nail biter and think the scores will be in the 60s or even 50s, depending on how slow the tempo becomes. A GU victory will be determined on who "shows-up"... Tillie, J3 and Melson had horrible offensive games...

Mr Vulture
02-05-2018, 12:05 PM
Just an fyi, they did announce they were putting the BPI and KenPom both onto the same sheets for the selection committee this year now. I wouldn't worry about RPI and barring a complete faceplant, Gonzaga is easily in the tournament this year.