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Reborn
01-19-2018, 08:12 AM
After looking at the stats this morning and seeing that the team once again shot poorly from beyond the three point line, shooting 27%. They made just 6 of 22 shots. Only one player, Melson, made more than one three-pointer (2). And he made those at the beginning of the game. I looked at Kenpom's stats and saw how the Zags are the 120th best three-point shooting team. My first thought was, whatever happened to Gonzaga being called Guard U. I think about our perimeter shooters (Perkins, Melson, Norvell, and Kispert) and honestly have a hard time understanding why they aren't shooting better. I've given some thought to that and here's what I think.

We seem to shoot our poorest when we play good teams. Teams like St. Mary's, San Diego St, Villanova, San Francisco and even Pacific. Against 'Nova and St. Mary's they shoot 27%. 31% against San Diego St. And low 30's against San Francisco and Pacific (around 32%). Pacific and St Mary's games were in K2. In my opinion two things contribute to the poor shooting. The first is that Perkins is unable to penetrate the lane, like most point guards, and make that kick out pass to our shooters. He is also unable to score going to the basket down the lane. He has no runner at all. Teams know this and really plug the middle to keep him from penetrating. The second problem and maybe the biggest is that our post players do not make passes to our shooters, and Williams tries desperately to force shots when he's double teamed, which is most of the time. Williams also quite often holds the ball too long before he makes his move; so when on rare occasions he does pass, the shot clock is down to five seconds, or less.

JW3 is a very good player, and would really be hard to stop (like Landale) if teams guarded him one on one (as GU did against Landale). However only one team guarded him one on one and that was Florida where He got like 39 points. JW's problem is that he forces way too many shots, and he rarely makes a good pass to our shooters. He does not know how to handle a double team. He has had half a season to try to figure out how to pass, and hasn't figured it out yet. I sure hope he can because if he continues to play the way he has been the Zags are in trouble.

Zags11
01-19-2018, 08:41 AM
Good thoughts.

SWZag
01-19-2018, 09:34 AM
2017 - 2018 current totals, all other years are year-end totals.

Years: Made / Attempted, Percantage [Notes - Top Players with a "Significant" (more than 25 - 30) number of 3-Pointers Made]
'17 - '18: 192 / 523, 36.7% [Perkins (43.7%), Norvell Jr (36.2%), Melson (36.6%), Kispert (35.2%)]
'16 - '17: 286 / 749, 38.2% [Matthews (39.2%), Perkins (39.9%), Williams-Goss (36.8%), Melson (39.1%)]
'15 - '16: 281 / 739, 38.0% [Wiltjer (43.7%), Perkins (37.8%), Danginis (36.0%)]
'14 - '15: 264 / 660, 40.0% [Pangos (43.1%), Wiltjer (46.6%) and Bell (36.4%)]
'13 - '14: 255 / 643, 39.7% [Pangos (41.2%), Bell (42.7%) and Barnham (48.0%)]
'12 - '13: 226 / 609, 37.1% [Pangos (41.7%), Bell (39.2%)]
'11 - '12: 215 / 567, 37.9% [Pangos (40.1%), Bell (47.7%)]
'10 - '11: 203 / 548, 37.0% [Gray (37.2%, Moenninghoff (45.8%)]
'09 - '10: 182 / 516, 35.3% [Bouldin (36.5%), Gray (32.9%)]
'08 - '09: 251 / 643, 39.0% [Bouldin (42.3%), Gray (35.0%), Downs (38.7%), Daye (42.9%)]
'07 - '08: 220 / 586, 37.5% [Bouldin (36.5%), Downs (38.8%), Gray (46.4%), Pendo (44.1%)]
'06 - '07: 230 / 583, 39.5% [Raivio (40.9%), Bouldin (36.3%)]
'05 - '06: 182 / 500, 36.4% [Morrison (42.8%), Raivio (35.8%)]
'04 - '05: 153 / 403, 38.0% [Morrison (31.1%), Raivio (45.8%)]
'03 - '04: 195 / 491, 39.7% [Stepp (37.6%), Bankhead (54.7%)]
'02 - '03: 239 / 635, 37.6% [Stepp (40.3%), Skinner (41.5%), Bankhead (40.0%)]
'01 - '02: 237 / 606, 39.1% [Dickau (45.7%), Stepp (35.6%), Bankhead (41.2%)]

Zagceo
01-19-2018, 09:52 AM
give me consistency from our shooters and I'd be happy.....averages mean little when worst performances are against top teams...shots not dropping get to the foul line. we shot 9 free throws. We should have put SMC on the line more with physical play as they went 6-12

SMC 56% FG and 61% from 3 ....50% from free throw line

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/6e/6e/82/6e6e828f37a8a4f1253f0ce8d888046a.png

adoptedzag
01-19-2018, 11:05 AM
give me consistency from our shooters and I'd be happy.....averages mean little when worst performances are against top teams...shots not dropping get to the foul line. we shot 9 free throws. We should have put SMC on the line more with physical play as they went 6-12

SMC 56% FG and 61% from 3 ....50% from free throw line

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/6e/6e/82/6e6e828f37a8a4f1253f0ce8d888046a.png

QFT

raise the zag
01-19-2018, 11:48 AM
our guards' shot selection suffers vs good teams or big games.

We take much deeper 3's than we do vs anyone else. Can't attribute this to defense, as SMC is atrocious.

Its mental. Its lack of confidence or too much pressure, but they take WAYYYYY deeper 3's vs Nova, SDSU, SMC, etc.

Just review the shot chart. Makes zero sense.

CdAZagFan
01-19-2018, 11:57 AM
I agree with you, Reborn. This year's team seems to be missing the post players kick-out passes to open shooters. I think Few's system has relied heavily in the past on the inside-out play. Karno had ad amazing ability to pass. I think we got spoiled. Even the hi-lo pass from big to big is missing this year. It seems like when things get tight, players stop moving, the ball doesn't go inside out and we end up taking poorer shots. If we aren't hitting our 3's, we're very vulnerable. I'm hopeful this team will continue to grow and adapt as the season goes on.

seacatfan
01-19-2018, 12:00 PM
We seem to shoot our poorest when we play good teams. Teams like St. Mary's, San Diego St, Villanova, San Francisco and even Pacific.


SDSU, USF, and Pacific are better than Creighton, Ohio St., Texas and Florida? You're trying to make the data fit your thesis, but you can't ignore those other teams GU played in OOC. USF is 2-5 in the WCC right now, there is simply no way to accurately refer to them as a good team. SDSU is stumbling around in the Mountain West and Pacific's overall record is .500 at the moment. GU has shot the ball poorly in some games regardless of opponent, and shot the ball well in other games, sometimes against good teams.

Reborn
01-19-2018, 04:56 PM
SDSU, USF, and Pacific are better than Creighton, Ohio St., Texas and Florida? You're trying to make the data fit your thesis, but you can't ignore those other teams GU played in OOC. USF is 2-5 in the WCC right now, there is simply no way to accurately refer to them as a good team. SDSU is stumbling around in the Mountain West and Pacific's overall record is .500 at the moment. GU has shot the ball poorly in some games regardless of opponent, and shot the ball well in other games, sometimes against good teams.

I used the Pacific game because Zags shot 34 threes and only made 7. 34 threes. Wow!!! I included them also because I think they beat BYU. You're right about USF.....should have left them out because we did shoot 36% against them which is about our season average. I really didnt like how we played against USF because we let them back in the game in the last 4 minutes of the game.

Reborn
01-19-2018, 05:07 PM
2017 - 2018 current totals, all other years are year-end totals.

Years: Made / Attempted, Percantage [Notes - Top Players with a "Significant" (more than 25 - 30) number of 3-Pointers Made]
'17 - '18: 192 / 523, 36.7% [Perkins (43.7%), Norvell Jr (36.2%), Melson (36.6%), Kispert (35.2%)]
'16 - '17: 286 / 749, 38.2% [Matthews (39.2%), Perkins (39.9%), Williams-Goss (36.8%), Melson (39.1%)]
'15 - '16: 281 / 739, 38.0% [Wiltjer (43.7%), Perkins (37.8%), Danginis (36.0%)]
'14 - '15: 264 / 660, 40.0% [Pangos (43.1%), Wiltjer (46.6%) and Bell (36.4%)]
'13 - '14: 255 / 643, 39.7% [Pangos (41.2%), Bell (42.7%) and Barnham (48.0%)]
'12 - '13: 226 / 609, 37.1% [Pangos (41.7%), Bell (39.2%)]
'11 - '12: 215 / 567, 37.9% [Pangos (40.1%), Bell (47.7%)]
'10 - '11: 203 / 548, 37.0% [Gray (37.2%, Moenninghoff (45.8%)]
'09 - '10: 182 / 516, 35.3% [Bouldin (36.5%), Gray (32.9%)]
'08 - '09: 251 / 643, 39.0% [Bouldin (42.3%), Gray (35.0%), Downs (38.7%), Daye (42.9%)]
'07 - '08: 220 / 586, 37.5% [Bouldin (36.5%), Downs (38.8%), Gray (46.4%), Pendo (44.1%)]
'06 - '07: 230 / 583, 39.5% [Raivio (40.9%), Bouldin (36.3%)]
'05 - '06: 182 / 500, 36.4% [Morrison (42.8%), Raivio (35.8%)]
'04 - '05: 153 / 403, 38.0% [Morrison (31.1%), Raivio (45.8%)]
'03 - '04: 195 / 491, 39.7% [Stepp (37.6%), Bankhead (54.7%)]
'02 - '03: 239 / 635, 37.6% [Stepp (40.3%), Skinner (41.5%), Bankhead (40.0%)]
'01 - '02: 237 / 606, 39.1% [Dickau (45.7%), Stepp (35.6%), Bankhead (41.2%)]

Thanks for the chart. It was fun looking at it. I really loved Bankhead. When I was coaching he came with a couple of coaches to put on a basketball clinic where I was coaching at the time. What a great young man. And I loved that team. Maybe it was only a Sweet 16 team, but at that time Sweet 16 for the Zags was HUGE. I'm talking about the '03 team.

seacatfan
01-19-2018, 09:35 PM
I used the Pacific game because Zags shot 34 threes and only made 7. 34 threes. Wow!!! I included them also because I think they beat BYU.

I think Pacific has been the biggest pleasant surprise in the WCC so far. Definitely trending in a positive direction.

jazzdelmar
01-20-2018, 12:52 AM
46%? DDD and KW, amazing.

MileHigh
01-20-2018, 05:27 AM
It isnt that when Zags play good teams they shoot the 3 ball poorly, because the stats dont bear that out (see Fla, Creighton, Texas, OhSt, etc)

What is glaring is the fact that when the Zags shoot poorly they lose. They are a jump shooting team and when they are off they will struggle to win against even mediocre teams.

TexasZagFan
01-20-2018, 06:57 AM
Tired legs at the end of games? Perhaps Few shouldn't tighten up the rotation as much.

Not saying the guys are out of shape, but SMC's defense wasn't that stiff in the last ten minutes to where we scored only 3 field goals.

Rui's not quite ready to go 30 minutes a game, either.

I'd look for a better awareness of the game clock, i.e. sub for a starter a minute before the next TV timeout, get coached up and rehydrated.