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Zagceo
01-17-2018, 11:58 AM
So who can actually win a title this season?Of the last 16 national champs, 12 have ranked in the top ten of either offensive or defensive efficiency and 15 of the 16 have ranked in the top 20. The only team to win a national title while entering the NCAA tournament ranked outside the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency was Kemba Walker’s 2011 UConn team, and they ranked 22nd and 25th, respectively.
Remember, this can all change rather quickly. If you look at the difference in the pre-tournament ratings vs. the post-tournament ratings below, you can see how much getting hot for a six-game stretch can change things, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
So this is a snapshot of how things stand today. In a two week’s time, these numbers could end up being irrelevant.
With that in mind, here are the six teams that – as of today – ranks in the top 25 of both offensive and defensive efficiency.

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/01/17/what-can-kenpoms-efficiency-rankings-tell-us-about-this-years-title-contenders/

https://nbccollegebasketballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/screen-shot-2018-01-17-at-11-08-13-am.png?w=490&h=&zoom=2

yes it can change fast...still interesting to follow

Zagcity
01-17-2018, 12:35 PM
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/01/17/what-can-kenpoms-efficiency-rankings-tell-us-about-this-years-title-contenders/

https://nbccollegebasketballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/screen-shot-2018-01-17-at-11-08-13-am.png?w=490&h=&zoom=2

yes it can change fast...still interesting to follow

Purdue is looking pretty good at this point.

MDABE80
01-17-2018, 01:25 PM
Purdue is an awful like the Zags of last year both in structure and function.. They could win it all. Tough minded group of kids. As out own team develops, I'm thinking we can develop into tough customers too. Defense will be the most important thing to work on in the last 40% of the season.

LongIslandZagFan
01-17-2018, 01:27 PM
Purdue is an awful like the Zags of last year both in structure and function.. They could win it all. Tough minded group of kids. As out own team develops, I'm thinking we can develop into tough customers too. Defense will be the most important thing to work on in the last 40% of the season.

This Zag team would be formidable if the took care of the #*#@ ball. TOs, especially in press situations, are this teams weak link.

MDABE80
01-17-2018, 01:40 PM
Well Liz. TO's and defense are tied together. Let's hope the TO's lessen (I think they have) and the team continues to ascend. Who knows! With the right matchups, we could go deeper than I thought at the season's beginning. It's a way different style of play this year but it could best in the country using this style......I hope so. Need to beat SMC twice plus BYU and USD. We defied the odds before.........maybe it's our time again.
DEFENSE!!!

zaguarxj
01-17-2018, 01:47 PM
Wow! Number 7 in offensive efficiency? Imagine how good they'd be if they had a decent point-guard!














Disclaimer: Just poking fun at you-know-who. I love Perkins, as do most of us, judging by GUnit votes.

gonstu
01-17-2018, 02:25 PM
but ZERO of the last 16 national champions have come from the wcc!!!

;)

Mr Vulture
01-17-2018, 02:27 PM
Just another reason why KenPom is so far superior to RPI. If you look at RPI we are behind four teams we beat (UW, Texas, Creighton, and Ohio State) plus such luminaries as a 8-9 Temple, Buffalo, St Bonaventure, NM State, and on and on. We are #58 in the RPI, #8 in the BPI, and #8 in KenPom...which ones the outlier?? LOL

DixieZag
01-17-2018, 02:58 PM
Just another reason why KenPom is so far superior to RPI. If you look at RPI we are behind four teams we beat (UW, Texas, Creighton, and Ohio State) plus such luminaries as a 8-9 Temple, Buffalo, St Bonaventure, NM State, and on and on. We are #58 in the RPI, #8 in the BPI, and #8 in KenPom...which ones the outlier?? LOL

Does the committee now look at BPI?

I can't imagine our RPI improving all that much over the course of the season, even if we simply continue to win, it would be really squirmy feeling if we dropped 2 more (which I think is quite possible), have an RPI of 50 and don't win the WCC. That pretty well assumes one win over SMC, or at least no losses to anyone else.

I am obviously simply citing "almost worse case scenarios" but we are not "in" with respect to the tournament. Hopefully the wins over Creighton, UW, Ohoi State and maybe even Texas look ok, alone with a win somewhere against SMC and then almost all wins over BYU and USD, even Pacific has been playing well lately (that's where our conference is right now).

I am shocked and discouraged by that RPI. I can see the wolves howling at the door if we are 25-6 or something, 2 more losses in conference and one in the WCC tourney, and an RPI of 50ish. It would be nice to hear that the committee considers BPI and those other stats.

Or we could just win out, which is fine also.

willandi
01-17-2018, 03:32 PM
but ZERO of the last 16 national champions have come from the wcc!!!

;)

And, your point?

Goshzagit
01-17-2018, 03:52 PM
Interestingly, our kenpom rating last year was:

Ortg - 16

Drtg - 1


this year:

Ortg - 7

Drtg - 17

People keep stressing PG, yet honestly, our offense is more efficient/higher scoring than last season, its our defense which as dropped off (we were numero uno!).

I think if we had a center who logged more mins, along with more focused aggressive perimeter play on defense, we'd arguably be ranked higher via KenPom than last season.

Doesn't feel like it, but the #'s don't lie

Zagceo
01-17-2018, 04:13 PM
Wow! Number 7 in offensive efficiency? Imagine how good they'd be if they had a decent point-guard!

Disclaimer: Just poking fun at you-know-who. I love Perkins, as do most of us, judging by GUnit votes.

really....just can't help yourself.

trying to get this thread locked?

Once and Future Zag
01-17-2018, 05:00 PM
really....just can't help yourself.

trying to get this thread locked?

If some people are a-rationally abusive and negative towards players, I think they deserve a little shade now and again.

btzag
01-17-2018, 05:11 PM
Also interesting to note that Gonzaga has only finished in the top 10 of the KenPom rankings 5 times since 2002 (16 years).

'04 - 7th and a 2 seed
'09 - 8th and a 4 seed
'13 - 5th and a 1 seed
'15 - 7th and a 2 seed
'17 - 1st and a 1 seed

Right now we are 7th overall.... The stats don't lie and KenPom is the best statistical measure out there; this is an elite team despite the eeyore's on this board.

Zagceo
01-17-2018, 05:18 PM
If some people are a-rationally abusive and negative towards players, I think they deserve a little shade now and again.

your opinion .....do it in your own threads.

LongIslandZagFan
01-17-2018, 05:38 PM
OK... Which team is better:




Statistic
Team A Rank
Team B Rank


3-pt Field Goal Attempts (351 ranked)
28
103


Assist Turnover Ratio (351 ranked)
24
31


Assists Per Game (351 ranked)
21
64


Blocked Shots Per Game (351 ranked)
95
38


Defensive Rebounds per Game (351 ranked)
9
2


Fewest Fouls (351 ranked)
215
265


Fewest Turnovers (351 ranked)
175
237


Field-Goal Percentage (351 ranked)
5
4


Field-Goal Percentage Defense (351 ranked)
41
2


Free Throw Attempts (351 ranked)
110
6


Free Throws Made (351 ranked)
93
7


Free-Throw Percentage (351 ranked)
115
123


Offensive Rebounds Per Game (350 ranked)
69
236


Personal Fouls Per Game (351 ranked)
159
54


Rebound Margin (351 ranked)
5
12


Scoring Defense (351 ranked)
106
10


Scoring Margin (351 ranked)
3
1


Scoring Offense (351 ranked)
4
16


Steals Per Game (351 ranked)
76
97


Three Pt FG Defense (351 ranked)
268
2


Three-Point Field Goals Per Game (351 ranked)
36
177


Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage (351 ranked)
91
44


Total 3-point FGM (351 ranked)
27
72


Total Assists (351 ranked)
9
11


Total Blocks (351 ranked)
75
12


Total Rebounds (351 ranked)
10
2


Total Rebounds Per Game (351 ranked)
10
6


Total Steals (351 ranked)
59
25


Turnover Margin (351 ranked)
141
141


Turnovers Forced (351 ranked)
190
256


Turnovers Per Game (351 ranked)
115
45


Won-Lost Percentage (351 ranked)
10
1

willandi
01-17-2018, 05:53 PM
OK... Which team is better:




Statistic
Team A Rank
Team B Rank


3-pt Field Goal Attempts (351 ranked)
28
103


Assist Turnover Ratio (351 ranked)
24
31


Assists Per Game (351 ranked)
21
64


Blocked Shots Per Game (351 ranked)
95
38


Defensive Rebounds per Game (351 ranked)
9
2


Fewest Fouls (351 ranked)
215
265


Fewest Turnovers (351 ranked)
175
237


Field-Goal Percentage (351 ranked)
5
4


Field-Goal Percentage Defense (351 ranked)
41
2


Free Throw Attempts (351 ranked)
110
6


Free Throws Made (351 ranked)
93
7


Free-Throw Percentage (351 ranked)
115
123


Offensive Rebounds Per Game (350 ranked)
69
236


Personal Fouls Per Game (351 ranked)
159
54


Rebound Margin (351 ranked)
5
12


Scoring Defense (351 ranked)
106
10


Scoring Margin (351 ranked)
3
1


Scoring Offense (351 ranked)
4
16


Steals Per Game (351 ranked)
76
97


Three Pt FG Defense (351 ranked)
268
2


Three-Point Field Goals Per Game (351 ranked)
36
177


Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage (351 ranked)
91
44


Total 3-point FGM (351 ranked)
27
72


Total Assists (351 ranked)
9
11


Total Blocks (351 ranked)
75
12


Total Rebounds (351 ranked)
10
2


Total Rebounds Per Game (351 ranked)
10
6


Total Steals (351 ranked)
59
25


Turnover Margin (351 ranked)
141
141


Turnovers Forced (351 ranked)
190
256


Turnovers Per Game (351 ranked)
115
45


Won-Lost Percentage (351 ranked)
10
1



It kind of looks like team B. The thing that isn't listed is strength of opponents which may result in better stats.

LongIslandZagFan
01-17-2018, 05:55 PM
It kind of looks like team B. The thing that isn't listed is strength of opponents which may result in better stats.

Well I'd hope it would be Team B... both are Zags... A is current stat rankings and B is National Runner Up Zag rankings.

Definitely not as good of a defensive team as last year.... but not as bad as some seem to make them out to be.

willandi
01-17-2018, 06:26 PM
Well I'd hope it would be Team B... both are Zags... A is current stat rankings and B is National Runner Up Zag rankings.

Definitely not as good of a defensive team as last year.... but not as bad as some seem to make them out to be.

interesting. Thank you.

Once and Future Zag
01-17-2018, 06:35 PM
your opinion .....do it in your own threads.

If you want to defend a-rational negativity - you can di it your own thread as well.

Kisses!

Once and Future Zag
01-17-2018, 06:40 PM
Well I'd hope it would be Team B... both are Zags... A is current stat rankings and B is National Runner Up Zag rankings.

Definitely not as good of a defensive team as last year.... but not as bad as some seem to make them out to be.

This year's team is as good as a whole as any prior Zag team (barring last years) as any we've seen before, at least as far as actual on-court results go - prejudices and "eye test" aside.

Eye tests never won a game.

JPtheBeasta
01-17-2018, 07:22 PM
Well I'd hope it would be Team B... both are Zags... A is current stat rankings and B is National Runner Up Zag rankings.

Definitely not as good of a defensive team as last year.... but not as bad as some seem to make them out to be.

Interesting that turnover margin is the same... counter-intuitive for me. I thought this year's team would be much worse...

I would love to see this team shoot more free throws.

UberZagFan
01-17-2018, 10:31 PM
Well Liz. TO's and defense are tied together.

Not sure how GU's offensive turnovers are related to GU's defense. But I'm open to hearing the theory...

sheps001
01-18-2018, 12:59 AM
Love Ken Pom but let's see who shows up tonight. Never can be sure with the Zags. Oh Yes, I was at the Garden to see the Villanova beat down and its cost a lot to see it and I'd been waiting literally years to see that one. Sooo lets see what actually happens tonight.

WallaWallaZag
01-18-2018, 03:17 AM
Love Ken Pom but let's see who shows up tonight. Never can be sure with the Zags. Oh Yes, I was at the Garden to see the Villanova beat down and its cost a lot to see it and I'd been waiting literally years to see that one. Sooo lets see what actually happens tonight.

haha...i sense some bitterness in there =)
this one's at home against primary rival...don't think showing up will be an issue...well, who knows with tillie

JPtheBeasta
01-18-2018, 04:31 AM
Not sure how GU's offensive turnovers are related to GU's defense. But I'm open to hearing the theory...

I can see how a turnover results in another possession and potentially more points for the other team. Live ball turnovers are apt to result in easy fast break points before the defense has a chance to get set.

Zagceo
01-18-2018, 04:49 AM
This year's team is as good as a whole as any prior Zag team (barring last years) as any we've seen before, at least as far as actual on-court results go - prejudices and "eye test" aside.

Eye tests never won a game.

Looks like all you want is shade..3 posts in this thread making it personal.

Zagceo
01-18-2018, 04:52 AM
Well I'd hope it would be Team B... both are Zags... A is current stat rankings and B is National Runner Up Zag rankings.

Definitely not as good of a defensive team as last year.... but not as bad as some seem to make them out to be.

Nice work LIZF

GonzagasaurusFlex
01-18-2018, 05:25 AM
Well I'd hope it would be Team B... both are Zags... A is current stat rankings and B is National Runner Up Zag rankings.

Definitely not as good of a defensive team as last year.... but not as bad as some seem to make them out to be.

Thanks for that chart LIZF...very interesting. Numbers don’t lie sounds good but imho this Zag squad needs to win a big game vs their #1 rival SMC tonight to get me on board with believing they are capable of doing big things in the Dance. May be harsh but they’ve lost their two biggest games of the season to date - semis of PK80 vs a Florida team missing their best post player and vs Villanova in MSG. They need to prove to themselves they can step up and win the big games, and tonight is their 3rd opportunity to do so. I’ll be cheering them on!

mgadfly
01-18-2018, 08:06 AM
I'm not sure what some of those numbers are, and I'm pretty much into the statistical analysis junk. When comparing 2017 and 2018 remember 18 has a strength of schedule of 176 and 17 had a #89 ranking. Stated otherwise, GU 17 had to play BYU and SMC 5 more times than 18 has as well as 6 NCAA tournament games.

Also, while GU 18's offense (#7) has been better than GU 17's, GU 17 finished the season with a crazy number on defensive efficiency. They were #1 by a good margin over #2 Virginia. Looking at the raw data instead of rank, it looks like this:

Offense
GU 18: 119.6 vs GU 17: 118.4

Defense
GU 18: 93.6 vs GU 17: 86.3

So while the offenses are relatively close, and probably separated by less than the difference in strength of schedule, the defense last year was much better than the defense this year.

adoptedzag
01-18-2018, 08:59 AM
Not sure how GU's offensive turnovers are related to GU's defense. But I'm open to hearing the theory...

Turnovers are bad two ways. 1) it's one less productive possession that you get on offense and more to your point 2) it's another possession that you have to defend. Live ball turnovers are especially deadly to defensive statistics because they often lead to run-outs, layups or in the case of playing a hot shooter, wide-open pull-up 3 attempts.

CDC84
01-18-2018, 09:47 AM
Love Ken Pom but let's see who shows up tonight. Never can be sure with the Zags. Oh Yes, I was at the Garden to see the Villanova beat down and its cost a lot to see it and I'd been waiting literally years to see that one. Sooo lets see what actually happens tonight.

There is a massive disparity between Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the defensive efficiency rankings. Both teams have top 10 offenses. It's going to be an interesting game for sure.

I wish that Villanova game would just disappear. It has become obvious that the Zag's heads were not into that game from the opening minute. I think Nova is great, but GU had no business losing to them by that amount.

Bogozags
01-18-2018, 09:47 AM
I'm curious to know what the average possessions were for both the '17 and '18 teams...I'll just bet we have more possessions this season...I think our 12 ORB per game vs our 12.6 TO's per game, might be indicative of our scoring average being up from last season, averaging 90pts per game. The '17 team averaged 9.7 ORB and had 11.5 TO's per game and scored 83pts per game.

I think the big difference from the '17 to the '18 team is having "redwood trees" (PK & ZC) in the paint. Lately with Rui and Tillie stepping up on their post defence, we might improve in this area.

mattydog73
01-18-2018, 10:03 AM
Not sure if this has been stated already but...

Kenpom results will not fully shed themselves of last year results as a factor until Jan 22nd. So then, whatever Zags are ranked after playing Santa Clara on Saturday is who they actually are THIS year alone.

Zagceo
01-18-2018, 10:05 AM
There is a massive disparity between Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the defensive efficiency rankings. Both teams have top 10 offenses. It's going to be an interesting game for sure.

I wish that Villanova game would just disappear. It has become obvious that the Zag's heads were not into that game from the opening minute. I think Nova is great, but GU had no business losing to them by that amount.

Just a refresher.... Zags led by 5 after the first 4 minutes and the game was tied halfway through the first half 17-17...then Nova stepped up and Zags stepped back.

JPtheBeasta
01-18-2018, 10:24 AM
In that Villanova game, they looked like they had never seen a pump fake before. They also often looked like they weren’t ready to play defense for the entire shot clock

mgadfly
01-18-2018, 12:30 PM
Not sure if this has been stated already but...

Kenpom results will not fully shed themselves of last year results as a factor until Jan 22nd. So then, whatever Zags are ranked after playing Santa Clara on Saturday is who they actually are THIS year alone.

Where do you see that? I'm trying to find where he explains what weight is given to the previous season and in what categories. For example, clearly the win-loss numbers are not influenced by last season. However, I recall him saying that at least the initial rankings are based on expectations from the prior season.

scrooner
01-18-2018, 12:53 PM
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22144913/ncaa-says-year-test-run-new-evaluation-system

mattydog73
01-18-2018, 01:39 PM
Where do you see that? I'm trying to find where he explains what weight is given to the previous season and in what categories. For example, clearly the win-loss numbers are not influenced by last season. However, I recall him saying that at least the initial rankings are based on expectations from the prior season.

These slowly "bleed off" as the season progresses. Originally, his projection was around 1-23-18 or so.... Looks like 22nd is the going to be the actual date.

Hope that helps!

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/951196602911227906